Saratoga, Fri Jul 31, 2026

10 races · published 10:32 AM ET · card locked

3 value plays today · 7 races we're passing

StatusCompleted · races run

First post1:10 PM ET

Scratch checkChecked · 10:32 AM ET

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Fri Jul 31, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day

2FIVE DOZEN ROSES

Race 10 · 5 1/2 furlongs turf

25%model3/1fair5/1boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+12 pts over the board), the price may move either way into post; you’re paid the close. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Today at SaratogaMostly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers, 82°F, wind 2 mph · rain 20%, no off-track flagNWS forecast

Flags 3 of 10 races

New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.

Today’s plays3 flags

RaceHorseModelBoardEdge

R32Mursal25%3/1+5 pts R48Noble Heritage13%10/1+6 pts R102Five Dozen Roses25%5/1+12 pts

Race 3 · 6 furlongs · dirt · Optional claiming $30,000Flag

2MURSAL

Model

Fair

Board

25%

3/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

The board and our fair price round to the same number (3/1), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show, it is +5.2 points of win probability, not a longer price.

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace7 going

Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

It tops our own win number, 3.6 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	MURSAL ◀	25%	3/1	3/1
5	SHEER WILL	21%	7/2	2/1
4	PROUD FOOT	17%	5/1	7/2
7	SWEET NOTE	12%	15/2	9/2
3	CONFIRMED STAR	9%	10/1	12/1
6	ALWAYS ANGELS	9%	10/1	6/1
1	EDISTRUDIS	7%	12/1	12/1

Race 4 · 1 1/8 miles · dirt · Claiming $45,000, non-winners of two lifetimeFlag

8NOBLE HERITAGE

Model

Fair

Board

13%

13/2

10/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price should hold A long board price the late money tends to leave alone, so you should still get a strong number at post, the fullest version of the edge.

Ranks #2 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested4 of 8 want the lead

Go forward1237

Pace helps4

Four of the 8 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile and an eighth on dirt in a $45,000 claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It rates third on our own win number, 18.9 points behind the top, and with 4 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

4 of the 8 want the front over a mile and an eighth on dirt, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	FIRST CALL BOB	32%	2/1	4/5
4	I'M WORTHY	16%	5/1	4/1
8	NOBLE HERITAGE ◀	13%	13/2	10/1
5	WHO'S YOUR ZADDY	9%	10/1	6/1
2	KAZ OIL CHANGER	8%	11/1	10/1
3	SWISS ARMY KNIFE	8%	11/1	8/1
7	SWAGING	7%	12/1	15/1
6	GOOD BALI	5%	20/1	30/1

Race 10 · 5 1/2 furlongs · turf · Claiming $40,000, non-winners of two lifetimeFlag

2FIVE DOZEN ROSES

Model

Fair

Board

25%

3/1

5/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested3 of 10 want the lead

Go forward9

Pace helps245

Three of the 10 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five and a half furlongs on turf in a $40,000 claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It tops our own win number, 8.6 points clear of the next one, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

3 of the 10 want the front over five and a half furlongs on turf, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	FIVE DOZEN ROSES ◀	25%	3/1	5/1
5	HEADS IN BEDS	16%	5/1	6/1
3	EMERALD EMBER	16%	11/2	4/1
1	SCORCH	11%	8/1	9/2
9	FROM SCRATCH	9%	10/1	7/2
4	ROCKYTA	8%	12/1	8/1
8	LILIES N PARADISE	6%	15/1	12/1
10	GIVE HER ANOTHER	4%	25/1	12/1
6	KAATERSKILL	3%	30/1	15/1
7	UNION DOOS	3%	30/1	20/1

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board

Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R	#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Edge	Why
R15 1/2 furlongs turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R1	2	WITHOUT HESITATION	29%	5/2	9/5	+1	····
R1	4	RIVER OF DECEIT	27%	5/2	2/1	0	1···
R1	1	WOOD ISLAND	18%	9/2	7/2	0	····
R1	3	JACKPOT JACKIE	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R1	7	THE DEVIL IN ME	9%	11/1	8/1	0	····
R1	6	ZODIAC WARRIOR	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	2···
R1	5	MAMBO JAZZ	1%	50/1	50/1	0	····
R25 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden claiming $35,000Even pacepass
R2	6	BELTANDSUSPENDERS	20%	4/1	3/1	0	····
R2	8	RISKY MISSION	16%	5/1	4/1	+1	····
R2	9	YOU CAN BANK ON ME	13%	13/2	5/1	0	····
R2	5	SOLO BELLE	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R2	1	YOU ARE MY SUZIE Q	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R2	4	MISS MONEY PANTS	10%	9/1	10/1	+3	1···
R2	2	SAYSOMETHINGNICE	9%	10/1	6/1	-2	2···
R2	3	CREAM PUFF	7%	12/1	10/1	0	····
R2	7	X TEN DOE	3%	30/1	20/1	-1	3···
R36 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $30,000Even pace1 flag
R3	2	MURSAL	25%	3/1	3/1	+5	1···
R3	5	SHEER WILL	21%	7/2	2/1	-5	3···
R3	4	PROUD FOOT	17%	5/1	7/2	0	2···
R3	7	SWEET NOTE	12%	15/2	9/2	-2	5···
R3	3	CONFIRMED STAR	9%	10/1	12/1	+3	4···
R3	6	ALWAYS ANGELS	9%	10/1	6/1	-2	7···
R3	1	EDISTRUDIS	7%	12/1	12/1	+1	6···
R41 1/8 miles dirtClaiming $45,000, non-winners of two lifetimeContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)1 flag
R4	1	FIRST CALL BOB	32%	2/1	4/5	-11	1▼··
R4	4	I'M WORTHY	16%	5/1	4/1	+1	3▲··
R4	8	NOBLE HERITAGE	13%	13/2	10/1	+6	2···
R4	5	WHO'S YOUR ZADDY	9%	10/1	6/1	-2	7···
R4	2	KAZ OIL CHANGER	8%	11/1	10/1	+1	6▼··
R4	3	SWISS ARMY KNIFE	8%	11/1	8/1	0	5▼··
R4	7	SWAGING	7%	12/1	15/1	+3	4▼··
R4	6	GOOD BALI	5%	20/1	30/1	+2	8···
R51 mile turfMaiden claiming $55,000Even pacepass
R5	10	VIVALDI	22%	7/2	3/1	+3	1···
R5	9	MELODY MAN	18%	9/2	7/2	+1	2···
R5	4	URGENCY	14%	13/2	6/1	+3	3···
R5	1	VISIBLE	13%	13/2	6/1	+2	4···
R5	6	CEDERBERG	12%	15/2	4/1	-4	5···
R5	3	DYNADEE	7%	15/1	10/1	0	7···
R5	7	AUTHENTIC LEGEND	7%	15/1	10/1	0	6···
R5	8	DIXIE HEX	4%	20/1	15/1	-1	8···
R5	5	GHOST DRIVER	2%	50/1	20/1	-2	9···
R5	2	STREETCAR	1%	99/1	30/1	-1	10···
R66 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R6	6	YESTAHAL	23%	7/2	5/2	+1	····
R6	7	MINDFIELD	15%	11/2	4/1	0	····
R6	1	FREEDOM CHARGE	14%	6/1	9/2	0	1···
R6	2	CALLING MR. MO	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R6	9	MCMOON	9%	11/1	8/1	0	····
R6	5	MAXIMILIAN	7%	15/1	10/1	0	····
R6	8	FULLCUP	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R6	3	PARKRIDGE	5%	20/1	15/1	0	····
R6	10	VALS BRO	4%	25/1	20/1	0	····
R6	12	J BUCK	2%	30/1	30/1	0	····
R6	11	NINUCCIO	2%	50/1	30/1	0	····
R6	4	CUYLLE	2%	50/1	30/1	0	····
R71 1/8 miles dirtOptional claiming $20,000Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R7	6	CALIBRATE	26%	3/1	2/1	0	1▲··
R7	3	COACH CRONIN	22%	7/2	5/2	-1	2▼··
R7	2	SECURED LANDING	14%	6/1	4/1	-2	4▼··
R7	5	SHARP SPARK	14%	13/2	6/1	+2	3···
R7	4	SARA'S SHAMAN	9%	10/1	10/1	+2	5▼··
R7	1	METATRON'S MUSE	9%	10/1	6/1	-2	6▲··
R7	7	HEY TOBY	4%	25/1	20/1	0	7···
R7	8	SMILENSAYCHEESE	3%	30/1	30/1	0	8···
R86 furlongs dirtAllowance $105,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (5 early-speed types)pass
R8	8	LIGHTNING STRIKE	21%	4/1	3/1	+1	1▲··
R8	6	LADY ROSE	17%	5/1	5/1	+4	2···
R8	5	K GUN	15%	11/2	7/2	-2	4▲··
R8	4	LIBERTY'S SECRET	12%	7/1	6/1	+1	5▲··
R8	7	QUEENS CAT	12%	15/2	6/1	+1	3···
R8	2	DANIELLA MARIE	11%	8/1	5/1	-2	6···
R8	9	SHEHANAH	5%	20/1	15/1	0	8···
R8	1	KAZ FARM GIRL	4%	20/1	20/1	+1	7▼··
R8	3	SUNSHINE LILY	3%	30/1	20/1	-1	9···
R8	10	FLOY JOY	1%	99/1	30/1	-2	10▼··
R96 1/2 furlongs dirtGrade 2 stakesContested pace likely (5 early-speed types)pass
R9	7	OBLITERATION	29%	5/2	7/5	-3	1▲··
R9	3	SOLITUDE DUDE	16%	5/1	4/1	+1	2···
R9	4	GILDED BANDIT	15%	11/2	9/2	+1	3▲··
R9	2	LOCAL KNOWLEDGE	12%	15/2	5/1	-1	4···
R9	1	AMERICAN MAN	10%	9/1	6/1	-1	5···
R9	5	WHITE SMOKE RISING	9%	10/1	12/1	+3	6▲··
R9	6	LINCOLN'S LAW	5%	20/1	15/1	0	7···
R9	8	ROCKIES BALBOA	4%	25/1	30/1	+1	8▼··
R105 1/2 furlongs turfClaiming $40,000, non-winners of two lifetimeContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag
R10	2	FIVE DOZEN ROSES	25%	3/1	5/1	+12	1▲··
R10	5	HEADS IN BEDS	16%	5/1	6/1	+5	3▲··
R10	3	EMERALD EMBER	16%	11/2	4/1	0	2···
R10	1	SCORCH	11%	8/1	9/2	-3	4···
R10	9	FROM SCRATCH	9%	10/1	7/2	-8	7▼··
R10	4	ROCKYTA	8%	12/1	8/1	-1	6▲··
R10	8	LILIES N PARADISE	6%	15/1	12/1	+1	5···
R10	10	GIVE HER ANOTHER	4%	25/1	12/1	-2	8···
R10	6	KAATERSKILL	3%	30/1	15/1	-2	9···
R10	7	UNION DOOS	3%	30/1	20/1	-1	10···

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 10 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet

R1Chalk2Without Hesitation29%5/29/5

How it sets up

turfEven pace7 going

The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 29% against the board's 28%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	WITHOUT HESITATION	29%	5/2	9/5
4	RIVER OF DECEIT	27%	5/2	2/1
1	WOOD ISLAND	18%	9/2	7/2
3	JACKPOT JACKIE	11%	8/1	6/1
7	THE DEVIL IN ME	9%	11/1	8/1
6	ZODIAC WARRIOR	5%	20/1	12/1
5	MAMBO JAZZ	1%	50/1	50/1

R2Scramble6Beltandsuspenders20%4/13/1

How it sets up

dirtEven pace9 going

An open heat. Nothing separates the top two by more than 3.4 points. We make the top one 20% against the board's 20%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	BELTANDSUSPENDERS	20%	4/1	3/1
8	RISKY MISSION	16%	5/1	4/1
9	YOU CAN BANK ON ME	13%	13/2	5/1
5	SOLO BELLE	11%	8/1	6/1
1	YOU ARE MY SUZIE Q	11%	8/1	6/1
4	MISS MONEY PANTS	10%	9/1	10/1
2	SAYSOMETHINGNICE	9%	10/1	6/1
3	CREAM PUFF	7%	12/1	10/1
7	X TEN DOE	3%	30/1	20/1

R5Lean10Vivaldi22%7/23/1

How it sets up

turfEven pace10 going

Our top-rated horse in a $55,000 maiden claimer. We make the top one 22% against the board's 20%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
10	VIVALDI	22%	7/2	3/1
9	MELODY MAN	18%	9/2	7/2
4	URGENCY	14%	13/2	6/1
1	VISIBLE	13%	13/2	6/1
6	CEDERBERG	12%	15/2	4/1
3	DYNADEE	7%	15/1	10/1
7	AUTHENTIC LEGEND	7%	15/1	10/1
8	DIXIE HEX	4%	20/1	15/1
5	GHOST DRIVER	2%	50/1	20/1
2	STREETCAR	1%	99/1	30/1

R6Chalk6Yestahal23%7/25/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pace12 going

The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. A full field of twelve.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	YESTAHAL	23%	7/2	5/2
7	MINDFIELD	15%	11/2	4/1
1	FREEDOM CHARGE	14%	6/1	9/2
2	CALLING MR. MO	11%	8/1	6/1
9	MCMOON	9%	11/1	8/1
5	MAXIMILIAN	7%	15/1	10/1
8	FULLCUP	6%	15/1	12/1
3	PARKRIDGE	5%	20/1	15/1
10	VALS BRO	4%	25/1	20/1
12	J BUCK	2%	30/1	30/1
11	NINUCCIO	2%	50/1	30/1
4	CUYLLE	2%	50/1	30/1

R7Chalk6Calibrate26%3/12/1

How it sets up

dirtContested3 of 8 want the lead

Go forward234

Pace helps16

The board and our number agree in a $20,000 optional claimer. Three of them want the lead.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	CALIBRATE	26%	3/1	2/1
3	COACH CRONIN	22%	7/2	5/2
2	SECURED LANDING	14%	6/1	4/1
5	SHARP SPARK	14%	13/2	6/1
4	SARA'S SHAMAN	9%	10/1	10/1
1	METATRON'S MUSE	9%	10/1	6/1
7	HEY TOBY	4%	25/1	20/1
8	SMILENSAYCHEESE	3%	30/1	30/1

R8Chalk8Lightning Strike21%4/13/1

How it sets up

dirtContested5 of 10 want the lead

Go forward110

Pace helps458

The board and our number agree in an allowance. Five horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
8	LIGHTNING STRIKE	21%	4/1	3/1
6	LADY ROSE	17%	5/1	5/1
5	K GUN	15%	11/2	7/2
4	LIBERTY'S SECRET	12%	7/1	6/1
7	QUEENS CAT	12%	15/2	6/1
2	DANIELLA MARIE	11%	8/1	5/1
9	SHEHANAH	5%	20/1	15/1
1	KAZ FARM GIRL	4%	20/1	20/1
3	SUNSHINE LILY	3%	30/1	20/1
10	FLOY JOY	1%	99/1	30/1

R9Chalk7Obliteration29%5/27/5

How it sets up

dirtContested5 of 8 want the lead

Go forward8

Pace helps457

The board and our number agree in a Grade 2. Five horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
7	OBLITERATION	29%	5/2	7/5
3	SOLITUDE DUDE	16%	5/1	4/1
4	GILDED BANDIT	15%	11/2	9/2
2	LOCAL KNOWLEDGE	12%	15/2	5/1
1	AMERICAN MAN	10%	9/1	6/1
5	WHITE SMOKE RISING	9%	10/1	12/1
6	LINCOLN'S LAW	5%	20/1	15/1
8	ROCKIES BALBOA	4%	25/1	30/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code d16c4663 · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 6b6a065dc005… · Scratch status checked at 10:32 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

This card was produced under the methodology version identified at publication. Detailed implementation parameters are proprietary and are no longer displayed. The original selections, probabilities, prices, timestamps, grading and integrity evidence are unchanged, and the locked card file below is the original. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash	`6b6a065dc0051fd024a12925ba79848fd9dcc52753a49e2007144967b5552a06`
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