Del Mar, Fri Jul 31, 2026

8 races · published 10:32 AM ET · card locked

4 value plays today · 5 races we're passing

StatusCompleted · races run

First post5:00 PM ET

Scratch checkChecked · 10:32 AM ET

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Fri Jul 31, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day

5MARCH OF TIME

Race 4 · 6 furlongs dirt

19%model9/2fair6/1boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+7 pts over the board), the price may move either way into post; you’re paid the close. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Today at Del MarPartly Sunny, 78°F, wind 0 to 10 mph · rain 0%, no off-track flagNWS forecast

Flags 4 of 8 races

New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.

Today’s plays4 flags

RaceHorseModelBoardEdge

R14I'M Otter Here17%6/1+5 pts R45March Of Time19%6/1+7 pts R67Sogno Di Vino18%6/1+7 pts R69Kokosan25%3/1+5 pts

Race 1 · 5 furlongs · turf · Optional claiming $50,000Flag

4I'M OTTER HERE

Model

Fair

Board

17%

5/1

6/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace7 going

Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

It rates second on our own win number, 3.2 points behind the top.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	LIAM SMITH	20%	4/1	5/2
4	I'M OTTER HERE ◀	17%	5/1	6/1
7	BURNING RUBBER	15%	11/2	6/1
3	DECAPO	15%	6/1	3/1
2	NOT A SINNER	14%	6/1	6/1
1	HOTHEAD	12%	7/1	4/1
6	VANCOUGAR	7%	15/1	12/1

Race 4 · 6 furlongs · dirt · Optional claiming $100,000Flag

5MARCH OF TIME

Model

Fair

Board

19%

9/2

6/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #2 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested4 of 7 want the lead

Go forward34

Pace helps256

Four of the 7 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over six furlongs on dirt in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It rates second on our own win number, 7.2 points behind the top, and with 4 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

4 of the 7 want the front over six furlongs on dirt, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	HEJAZI	26%	3/1	7/5
5	MARCH OF TIME ◀	19%	9/2	6/1
6	SPEEDY WILSON	18%	9/2	3/1
1	SIMPLE SONG	13%	7/1	5/1
4	CAPTIVATOR	10%	9/1	8/1
2	FOR ALL MANKIND	9%	11/1	10/1
7	SMOOTH CRUISEIN	7%	15/1	15/1

Race 6 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Claiming $25,000, non-winners of two lifetimeFlag

7SOGNO DI VINO

Model

Fair

Board

18%

9/2

6/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #2 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested4 of 9 want the lead

Go forward2

Pace helps149

Four of the 9 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile and a sixteenth on turf in a $25,000 claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It rates second on our own win number, 6.9 points behind the top, and with 4 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

4 of the 9 want the front over a mile and a sixteenth on turf, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
9	KOKOSAN	25%	3/1	3/1
7	SOGNO DI VINO ◀	18%	9/2	6/1
1	SAND BAGGER	15%	6/1	5/1
5	NINETEENTH HOLE	12%	15/2	6/1
8	TRIBAL	9%	10/1	4/1
6	LOVE THE PRESSURE	9%	11/1	8/1
4	BAD TO THE BONES	6%	15/1	8/1
3	PRANCEALOT KELLY	4%	25/1	20/1
2	PRECISION	3%	30/1	12/1

Race 6 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Claiming $25,000, non-winners of two lifetimeFlag

9KOKOSAN

Model

Fair

Board

25%

3/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

The board and our fair price round to the same number (3/1), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show, it is +5.3 points of win probability, not a longer price.

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested4 of 9 want the lead

Go forward2

Pace helps149

The early fractions over a mile and a sixteenth on turf in a $25,000 claimer should be contested rather than soft, with four of the 9 entitled to the early lead.

The model’s read ▾

It tops our own win number, 6.9 points clear of the next one, and with 4 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

4 of the 9 want the front over a mile and a sixteenth on turf, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
9	KOKOSAN ◀	25%	3/1	3/1
7	SOGNO DI VINO	18%	9/2	6/1
1	SAND BAGGER	15%	6/1	5/1
5	NINETEENTH HOLE	12%	15/2	6/1
8	TRIBAL	9%	10/1	4/1
6	LOVE THE PRESSURE	9%	11/1	8/1
4	BAD TO THE BONES	6%	15/1	8/1
3	PRANCEALOT KELLY	4%	25/1	20/1
2	PRECISION	3%	30/1	12/1

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board

Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R	#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Edge	Why
R15 furlongs turfOptional claiming $50,000Even pace1 flag
R1	5	LIAM SMITH	20%	4/1	5/2	-3	3···
R1	4	I'M OTTER HERE	17%	5/1	6/1	+5	1···
R1	7	BURNING RUBBER	15%	11/2	6/1	+3	2···
R1	3	DECAPO	15%	6/1	3/1	-5	5···
R1	2	NOT A SINNER	14%	6/1	6/1	+3	4···
R1	1	HOTHEAD	12%	7/1	4/1	-4	6···
R1	6	VANCOUGAR	7%	15/1	12/1	+1	7···
R25 1/2 furlongs dirtClaiming $16,000Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R2	5	JASMINA	19%	4/1	3/1	-1	2▲··
R2	7	MY KAT	16%	11/2	7/2	-2	1▼··
R2	6	SOUTHERN ANTON	14%	13/2	8/1	+5	3▲··
R2	4	TATE BATZ	13%	7/1	5/1	-1	5···
R2	1	DATS MS. BLAME	12%	15/2	5/1	-1	7▲··
R2	2	DUSTEM TOO	10%	9/1	12/1	+4	4▼··
R2	3	LITTLE TINKER ELLE	9%	10/1	6/1	-2	6▼··
R2	8	SUGAREE	8%	12/1	8/1	-1	8···
R35 furlongs turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R3	9	VANTA	23%	7/2	5/2	0	····
R3	2	HER NAMES CHARLIE	19%	9/2	3/1	-1	1···
R3	6	GOLDEN BEE	16%	11/2	4/1	0	····
R3	1	TAUSRET	12%	15/2	6/1	0	····
R3	3	CANDY COLE	11%	8/1	8/1	+2	2···
R3	7	MADRINA MIA	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R3	5	MOOBERRY	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R3	4	CHASEHER	6%	15/1	15/1	+1	3···
R3	8	PERSIAN PRINCESS	2%	50/1	20/1	-2	4···
R46 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $100,000Contested pace likely (4 early-speed types)1 flag
R4	3	HEJAZI	26%	3/1	7/5	-8	1▼··
R4	5	MARCH OF TIME	19%	9/2	6/1	+7	2▲··
R4	6	SPEEDY WILSON	18%	9/2	3/1	-2	3▲··
R4	1	SIMPLE SONG	13%	7/1	5/1	-1	4···
R4	4	CAPTIVATOR	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	5▼··
R4	2	FOR ALL MANKIND	9%	11/1	10/1	+1	6▲··
R4	7	SMOOTH CRUISEIN	7%	15/1	15/1	+2	7···
R56 furlongs dirtMaiden claiming $12,500Even pacepass
R5	1	PENNY WORTH	19%	4/1	3/1	-1	1···
R5	8	BLAME IT ON ABBY	17%	5/1	4/1	+1	2···
R5	3	DANCING WITH SHARI	14%	6/1	6/1	+3	3···
R5	2	FORGOTTEN MEMORIES	11%	8/1	5/1	-3	5···
R5	10	JUST MENDELSSOHN	9%	11/1	8/1	0	4···
R5	13	DAME IT DANI	8%	12/1	8/1	-1	7···
R5	4	NICO DIJO	7%	15/1	20/1	+3	6···
R5	7	SHE SPENDSALOT	6%	15/1	10/1	-2	8···
R5	9	LIVELY GIRL	4%	25/1	20/1	0	9···
R5	5	EMBRACING AUTISM	4%	25/1	15/1	-1	10···
R5	11	STRONG PROOF	3%	30/1	30/1	0	11···
R61 1/16 miles turfClaiming $25,000, non-winners of two lifetimeContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)2 flags
R6	9	KOKOSAN	25%	3/1	3/1	+5	1▲··
R6	7	SOGNO DI VINO	18%	9/2	6/1	+7	2···
R6	1	SAND BAGGER	15%	6/1	5/1	+1	3▲··
R6	5	NINETEENTH HOLE	12%	15/2	6/1	0	4···
R6	8	TRIBAL	9%	10/1	4/1	-7	6···
R6	6	LOVE THE PRESSURE	9%	11/1	8/1	0	5···
R6	4	BAD TO THE BONES	6%	15/1	8/1	-3	8▲··
R6	3	PRANCEALOT KELLY	4%	25/1	20/1	0	7···
R6	2	PRECISION	3%	30/1	12/1	-4	9▼··
R77 furlongs dirtStakes, $150,000 purseContested pace likely (7 early-speed types)pass
R7	11	START THE RIDE	14%	6/1	4/1	-1	3···
R7	8	PAVLOVIAN	13%	7/1	7/2	-4	4···
R7	1	COURTSIDE ACTION	12%	15/2	6/1	+1	6▲··
R7	9	HE'S A KNOCKOUT	12%	15/2	5/1	-1	1▼··
R7	10	OCEAN BEAR	11%	15/2	5/1	-1	5···
R7	4	LIT	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	2▼··
R7	3	KING'S RIDE	8%	12/1	10/1	+1	7···
R7	5	PARTY ANIMAL	6%	15/1	12/1	0	10▲··
R7	6	FUMANO'S MAGIC	6%	15/1	30/1	+3	8▲··
R7	7	FIONELLO	5%	20/1	20/1	+2	9···
R7	2	SOUTHERN MELODEE	3%	30/1	30/1	+1	11▼··
R81 mile turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R8	7	MARLA HOOCH	18%	9/2	5/1	+5	1···
R8	6	VOLCANOLOGIST	14%	6/1	8/1	+5	2···
R8	3	HELPING HAND	13%	13/2	7/2	-4	5···
R8	1	JANZ JOY	12%	15/2	4/1	-4	6···
R8	5	GRAZENINTHEGRASS	12%	15/2	8/1	+3	3···
R8	4	BLAME THE TRACK	12%	15/2	6/1	0	4···
R8	11	IMPRESSIONISTIC	7%	12/1	8/1	-1	7···
R8	2	LATIN AIR	3%	30/1	12/1	-3	11···
R8	10	CLUBHOUSE DEB	3%	30/1	20/1	0	8···
R8	8	UNUSUALEXIS	3%	30/1	30/1	0	9···
R8	14	KITTY MAC	3%	30/1	20/1	-1	10···

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 8 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet

R2Scramble5Jasmina19%4/13/1

How it sets up

dirtContested3 of 8 want the lead

Go forward237

Pace helps156

An open heat. Nothing separates the top two by more than 3.4 points. Three of them want the lead.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	JASMINA	19%	4/1	3/1
7	MY KAT	16%	11/2	7/2
6	SOUTHERN ANTON	14%	13/2	8/1
4	TATE BATZ	13%	7/1	5/1
1	DATS MS. BLAME	12%	15/2	5/1
2	DUSTEM TOO	10%	9/1	12/1
3	LITTLE TINKER ELLE	9%	10/1	6/1
8	SUGAREE	8%	12/1	8/1

R3Chalk9Vanta23%7/25/2

How it sets up

turfEven pace9 going

The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 23% against the board's 23%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
9	VANTA	23%	7/2	5/2
2	HER NAMES CHARLIE	19%	9/2	3/1
6	GOLDEN BEE	16%	11/2	4/1
1	TAUSRET	12%	15/2	6/1
3	CANDY COLE	11%	8/1	8/1
7	MADRINA MIA	6%	15/1	12/1
5	MOOBERRY	6%	15/1	12/1
4	CHASEHER	6%	15/1	15/1
8	PERSIAN PRINCESS	2%	50/1	20/1

R5Scramble1Penny Worth19%4/13/1

How it sets up

dirtEven pace11 going

A full field of eleven. Nothing separates the top two by more than 2.5 points. We make the top one 19% against the board's 20%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	PENNY WORTH	19%	4/1	3/1
8	BLAME IT ON ABBY	17%	5/1	4/1
3	DANCING WITH SHARI	14%	6/1	6/1
2	FORGOTTEN MEMORIES	11%	8/1	5/1
10	JUST MENDELSSOHN	9%	11/1	8/1
13	DAME IT DANI	8%	12/1	8/1
4	NICO DIJO	7%	15/1	20/1
7	SHE SPENDSALOT	6%	15/1	10/1
9	LIVELY GIRL	4%	25/1	20/1
5	EMBRACING AUTISM	4%	25/1	15/1
11	STRONG PROOF	3%	30/1	30/1

R7Scramble11Start The Ride14%6/14/1

How it sets up

dirtContested7 of 11 want the lead

Go forward249

Pace helps156

A full field of eleven. Nothing separates the top two by more than 1.2 points. Seven horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
11	START THE RIDE	14%	6/1	4/1
8	PAVLOVIAN	13%	7/1	7/2
1	COURTSIDE ACTION	12%	15/2	6/1
9	HE'S A KNOCKOUT	12%	15/2	5/1
10	OCEAN BEAR	11%	15/2	5/1
4	LIT	10%	9/1	8/1
3	KING'S RIDE	8%	12/1	10/1
5	PARTY ANIMAL	6%	15/1	12/1
6	FUMANO'S MAGIC	6%	15/1	30/1
7	FIONELLO	5%	20/1	20/1
2	SOUTHERN MELODEE	3%	30/1	30/1

R8Lean7Marla Hooch18%9/25/1

How it sets up

turfEven pace11 going

Our top-rated horse in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 18% against the board's 13%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 5 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
7	MARLA HOOCH	18%	9/2	5/1
6	VOLCANOLOGIST	14%	6/1	8/1
3	HELPING HAND	13%	13/2	7/2
1	JANZ JOY	12%	15/2	4/1
5	GRAZENINTHEGRASS	12%	15/2	8/1
4	BLAME THE TRACK	12%	15/2	6/1
11	IMPRESSIONISTIC	7%	12/1	8/1
2	LATIN AIR	3%	30/1	12/1
10	CLUBHOUSE DEB	3%	30/1	20/1
8	UNUSUALEXIS	3%	30/1	30/1
14	KITTY MAC	3%	30/1	20/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code d16c4663 · takeout (DMR) win 15.43% / exacta 22.68% · card SHA-256 38a2c1953e92… · Scratch status checked at 10:32 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

This card was produced under the methodology version identified at publication. Detailed implementation parameters are proprietary and are no longer displayed. The original selections, probabilities, prices, timestamps, grading and integrity evidence are unchanged, and the locked card file below is the original. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash	`38a2c1953e922294c5e5a9d18772c84313937c51254245be220725223f2b10d3`
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