Saratoga · Fri Jul 31 · Race 4 · 1 1/8 miles dirt · Clm 45000n2l

8 Noble Heritage

Model

13%

our win probability

Fair

13/2

break-even at that probability

Board

10/1

morning line, 7% implied

Edge

+6.4

points over the morning line

Ranks #2 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup; model 13% vs 7% morning-line implied (+6.4 pts)

The number that matters most is the last one

We will not take this horse shorter than 7/1. That is the point at which the price stops paying for the risk, and it is the only number here that still works if you disagree with us. Pick your own horse, work out the probability you would give it, and the same arithmetic tells you when to pass. A selection is an opinion. A minimum price is a method.

This was published before the race

The card carrying this play was hashed and published at 10:32 AM ET, before the first race went off. Its SHA-256 begins 6b6a065dc005. Nothing on this page is edited after the fact, win or lose.

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