Saratoga, Mon Sep 7, 2026
Today’s card runs on TwinSpires as Edge Card Plays. Edge Card is an independent publication and is not a TwinSpires product; the plays and the record are the same ones published here.
New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.
No one horse is entitled to the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.
It tops our own win number, though only just, with 0.2 points in it.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | HARD CIRCLE ◀ | 14% | 6/1 | 8/1 | 22/26·8d |
| 2 | DEBT LIMIT | 14% | 13/2 | 7/2 | 8/32·9d |
| 4 | URGENCY | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 | 12/42·18d |
| 3 | SIESTA KEY | 10% | 10/1 | 5/1 | 12/40·12d |
| 9 | OUTSOURCE | 9% | 10/1 | 6/1 | 22/121·10d |
| 10 | VINTAGE VINO | 9% | 10/1 | 12/1 | 4/9·11d |
| 1 | ENGLISH LAW | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 9/23·12d |
| 6 | HAMMERHEAD | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | •1/11·11d |
| 5 | HIGH BETA | 6% | 15/1 | 20/1 | 8/8·12d |
| 8 | PRINTER'S ALLEY | 6% | 15/1 | 20/1 | 5/27·59d |
| 7 | RABAJA | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 | 8/11·9d |
| 12 | HOT PROPERTY | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | 12/52·9d |
Six of the 10 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five and a half furlongs on turf in a $45,000 optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.
The model’s read ▾
This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.
It tops our own win number, 12.2 points clear of the next one, and with 6 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.
6 of the 10 want the front over five and a half furlongs on turf, so the early fractions should be honest.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | SEA VISTA ◀ | 27% | 5/2 | 6/1 | •1/53·29d |
| 4 | ESCAPADES | 15% | 6/1 | 7/2 | 2/3·30d |
| 2 | LIGHT FANTASTIC | 14% | 6/1 | 3/1 | 2/105·30d |
| 8 | AMBASSADOR BLUE | 11% | 8/1 | 9/2 | •1/34·9d |
| 1 | ABRIGADO | 10% | 9/1 | 10/1 | •1/59·11d |
| 3 | UTOPIAN | 7% | 15/1 | 8/1 | — |
| 10 | FROSTELLE | 6% | 15/1 | 20/1 | •1/59·16d |
| 6 | GLOBAL PROSPERITY | 4% | 20/1 | 12/1 | 72/72·15d |
| 9 | KORRONGO | 4% | 25/1 | 10/1 | 29/30·23d |
| 7 | SICILIAN DEFENSE | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 | 1/1·5d |
Three of the 9 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile on turf in a starter allowance should be contested rather than soft.
The model’s read ▾
It tops our own win number, 3.6 points clear of the next one, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.
3 of the 9 want the front over a mile on turf, so the early fractions should be honest.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | DOUBTING THOMAS ◀ | 19% | 9/2 | 8/1 | •1/12·8d |
| 2 | THIRD COAST | 15% | 11/2 | 5/1 | •1/15·4d |
| 4 | LYNEHAM | 15% | 11/2 | 4/1 | — |
| 8 | CHUMMERS | 11% | 8/1 | 9/2 | 8/48·24d |
| 7 | SIYOUINCANADA | 11% | 8/1 | 7/2 | 6/57·8d |
| 3 | GLAVINE | 10% | 9/1 | 5/1 | 2/99·9d |
| 9 | BLACK HORNET | 9% | 10/1 | 6/1 | 11/20·11d |
| 1 | GLORIOUS BOY | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 | •1/9·10d |
| 5 | BULL SHOALS | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 | 6/57·8d |
Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.
It tops our own win number, 3.8 points clear of the next one.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | MIDTOWN MISCHIEF ◀ | 19% | 4/1 | 6/1 | 22/22·9d |
| 12 | COPPER CADUCEUS | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 5/42·9d |
| 3 | DAYLIGHT DREAMER | 11% | 15/2 | 6/1 | 26/31·9d |
| 2 | AVERY'S WONDERLAND | 10% | 9/1 | 5/1 | 6/32·5d |
| 1 | TICKET TO RIDE | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 | — |
| 5 | MY LIL ARMY GIRL | 10% | 9/1 | 7/2 | 19/31·8d |
| 7 | LIVELY PAL | 7% | 15/1 | 20/1 | •1/6·13d |
| 10 | YOU KNOW BETTER | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | •1/9·16d |
| 8 | SASSY SATS | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | •1/13·7d |
| 11 | QUELL | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | 3/30·5d |
| 9 | ADROIT | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | 3/5·11d |
| 4 | BANK ON BEBE | 1% | 99/1 | 50/1 | 3/13·7d |
- 1Miss Nightfallnew barn since the last start, now with Jonathan Thomas · first-time Lasix
5 of the 8 were claimed last time out
- 6Twenty Four Mambawent off at 2/1 last time and finished 5th
- 7Barbwent off at 9/5 last time and finished 5th
- 8Little Thunderfirst start in 7 months
- 8Taqueeto Jonesfirst start in 11 months · new barn since the last start, now with Bruce R Brown · first-time Lasix
- 2Tampa Stormfirst start in 6 months
- 5Chris's Songclaimed last time out
- 9True Adirondackerblinkers off
- 6Miss Watermelonwent off at 3/5 last time and finished 6th · first start in 8 months · new barn since the last start, now with Kelsey Danner
- 7Guns Of RosesRasheed Hughes is here for this one ride, the first of the meet
6 of the 9 were claimed last time out
- 4Late Callfirst start on dirt
- 7Castle Chaosnew barn since the last start, now with Mertkan Kantarmaci
- 8Metatron's Museup from $20,000 to $30,000 off a win
6 of the 12 were claimed last time out
- 2Debt Limitwent off at 9/5 last time and finished 4th · Dylan Davis back aboard, a winner on this horse four starts back
- 3Siesta Keyup from $30,000 to $45,000 off a second
4 of the 10 were claimed last time out
- 5Sea Vistafirst start on turf · bottom third of this field on turf breeding
- 7Sicilian Defensefirst start under a mile
- 9Korrongoup from $16,000 to $45,000 off a second
- 1Glorious BoyRajiv Maragh back aboard, a winner on this horse four starts back · blinkers on
- 2Third Coastblinkers off
- 4Lynehamnew barn since the last start, now with Christophe Ferland
- 6Doubting Thomasfirst start at a mile or longer
- 8Sassy Satsup from $25,000 to $50,000 off a second · first start in 6 months
- 7Lively Palfirst start on turf
- 9Adroitblinkers on
- 10You Know Betterblinkers off
Facts about the race, not predictions. A class move is shown with the finish it came off so you can judge it; we do not claim any of these wins, and only the flagged win bets above are graded on the record.
The whole card every runner, our number beside the board
| R | # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Edge | Rank | Why | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R11 mile turfAllowance $120,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R1 | 7 | ACCENT | 30% | 5/2 | 8/5 | 0 | 1 | 20/99·9d | |
| R1 | 6 | MAJAZ | 24% | 3/1 | 3/1 | +5 | 2 | W | •1/21·8d |
| R1 | 1 | MISS NIGHTFALL | 23% | 7/2 | 5/2 | +1 | B | 4/13·9d | |
| R1 | 4 | SCARLETT'S HALO | 9% | 10/1 | 6/1 | -2 | 4 | W | •1/10·8d |
| R1 | 5 | CANDY MOONSHINE | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 3 | 6/51·18d | |
| R1 | 3 | TWO MARTINI'S | 4% | 25/1 | 12/1 | -2 | 5 | W | 4/46·18d |
| R1 | 2 | LADY RIVER LILY | 1% | 50/1 | 30/1 | -1 | 6 | B | •1/10·5d |
| R26 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R2 | 2 | READY SET ROLL | 20% | 4/1 | 3/1 | 0 | 2/14·9d | ||
| R2 | 10 | HEIRSUTA | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 0 | W | •1/40·8d | |
| R2 | 7 | NORAH BEGORRAH | 13% | 7/1 | 5/1 | 0 | W | 3/64·10d | |
| R2 | 3 | EIGHT ROSE'S | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | 12/13·8d | ||
| R2 | 6 | RESCUE DAWN | 9% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | •1/7·5d | ||
| R2 | 5 | TOOKENETTE | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 0 | W | •1/25·7d | |
| R2 | 4 | FOURTEEN ROSES | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 0 | •1/9·8d | ||
| R2 | 1 | SAINTLY VILLAIN | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 0 | W | 3/42·9d | |
| R2 | 9 | JETSETTER | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | BW | •1/12·6d | |
| R2 | 8 | CALL ME | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | W | •1/37·4d | |
| R36 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $80,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass | |||||||||
| R3 | 3 | SHOW TIME | 18% | 9/2 | 5/1 | +5 | 1 | ▲W | 8/8·9d |
| R3 | 8 | LITTLE THUNDER | 16% | 11/2 | 5/2 | -6 | 3 | ▼ | •1/6·7d |
| R3 | 2 | GATE TO WIRE | 14% | 6/1 | 7/2 | -3 | 5 | W | 7/115·8d |
| R3 | 6 | TWENTY FOUR MAMBA | 14% | 13/2 | 8/1 | +5 | 2 | 2/14·14d | |
| R3 | 1 | TWO EAGLES RIVER | 13% | 13/2 | 6/1 | +2 | 4 | 3/102·23d | |
| R3 | 4 | SHARP SWINGER | 13% | 7/1 | 4/1 | -3 | 6 | BW | •1/19·4d |
| R3 | 7 | BARB | 7% | 12/1 | 15/1 | +2 | 7 | ▲B | •1/23·22d |
| R3 | 5 | PERFECT FORCE | 6% | 15/1 | 10/1 | -1 | 8 | ▲B | 7/11·21d |
| R46 furlongs dirtMaiden claiming $35,000Even pacepass | |||||||||
| R4 | 6 | BAKUTO | 18% | 9/2 | 3/1 | -2 | 1 | 62/149·8d | |
| R4 | 10 | PLAN ON IT | 16% | 5/1 | 4/1 | +1 | B | 2/4·10d | |
| R4 | 4 | SFUMATO | 15% | 6/1 | 7/2 | -3 | 3 | •1/7·4d | |
| R4 | 5 | CHRIS'S SONG | 14% | 13/2 | 5/1 | +1 | 2 | 11/55·5d | |
| R4 | 11 | ALWAYS HONEST | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 | +2 | 4 | B | 19/107·16d |
| R4 | 3 | KINGS LANDYN | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 | +2 | 5 | B | 31/42·18d |
| R4 | 2 | TAMPA STORM | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 6 | W | •1/21·9d |
| R4 | 1 | THUNDERTAKER | 5% | 15/1 | 15/1 | +1 | 7 | 6/17·12d | |
| R4 | 9 | TRUE ADIRONDACKER | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 | 0 | 8 | B | 10/89·9d |
| R4 | 7 | KLIMT MASTER | 2% | 50/1 | 50/1 | 0 | 9 | B | 22/25·16d |
| R4 | 8 | TAQUEETO JONES | 1% | 99/1 | 30/1 | -1 | 10 | B | •1/7·14d |
| R57 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R5 | 5 | GLOW OF A ROSE | 17% | 5/1 | 4/1 | +1 | 1 | BW | •1/10·8d |
| R5 | 10 | NOBLE GLOW | 16% | 5/1 | 7/2 | -1 | 2 | 12/99·10d | |
| R5 | 6 | MISS WATERMELON | 12% | 15/2 | 9/2 | -2 | 3 | W | •1/16·9d |
| R5 | 1 | JUST A GIRL | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | W | •1/13·8d | |
| R5 | 7 | GUNS OF ROSES | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | 4 | BW | 12/127·8d |
| R5 | 9 | RAGING VORTEX | 9% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | W | 3/107·8d | |
| R5 | 3 | EPISODIC | 8% | 12/1 | 12/1 | +2 | 5 | 7/59·8d | |
| R5 | 2 | SESASI | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | W | •1/10·8d | |
| R5 | 4 | RED BEACH | 6% | 15/1 | 15/1 | +1 | 6 | BW | •1/11·11d |
| R5 | 8 | FLYING HAWLEY | 4% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | 7 | B | •1/8·7d |
| R61 mile dirtClaiming $30,000Even pacepass | |||||||||
| R6 | 2 | SECURED LANDING | 22% | 7/2 | 5/2 | -1 | 1 | B | 13/28·19d |
| R6 | 1 | GLEN AIRY | 18% | 9/2 | 3/1 | -2 | 3 | B | 5/9·31d |
| R6 | 9 | BERNIN HOT | 15% | 6/1 | 6/1 | +4 | 2 | 4/24·12d | |
| R6 | 3 | FRIZZANTE | 11% | 8/1 | 5/1 | -2 | 6 | B | 3/28·11d |
| R6 | 7 | CASTLE CHAOS | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 | +1 | 4 | W | 114/116·58d |
| R6 | 8 | METATRON'S MUSE | 8% | 11/1 | 6/1 | -3 | 7 | 3/10·4d | |
| R6 | 4 | LATE CALL | 8% | 12/1 | 20/1 | +4 | 5 | 35/37·18d | |
| R6 | 5 | PEEK | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 8 | B | 18/23·12d |
| R6 | 6 | THREE TECHNIQUE | 4% | 25/1 | 15/1 | -1 | 9 | BW | •1/13·13d |
| R76 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R7 | 4 | DAMAVAND | 20% | 4/1 | 3/1 | 0 | 2/3·7d | ||
| R7 | 9 | SHAHNAMEH | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 0 | W | •1/107·8d | |
| R7 | 7 | DARGHAM | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 | 0 | 4/25·8d | ||
| R7 | 10 | BELLISSIMO D'ORO | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 1 | BW | •1/12·10d |
| R7 | 2 | HULLABALOO RAY RAY | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 0 | 1/3·7d | ||
| R7 | 6 | MOTAWAALI | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 | -2 | 2 | 3/5·8d | |
| R7 | 8 | I'M AMERICA | 7% | 15/1 | 10/1 | 0 | 1/3·15d | ||
| R7 | 1 | ROUGHKIN | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | 3/7·4d | ||
| R7 | 3 | LOUISIANA BABY | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | W | 2/151·8d | |
| R7 | 12 | HOOKED | 4% | 20/1 | 20/1 | +1 | 3 | •1/5·5d | |
| R7 | 11 | CLOSING SURGE | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 4/12·8d | ||
| R7 | 5 | ROAD TO RAVELLO | 4% | 30/1 | 20/1 | 0 | BW | 2/28·4d | |
| R81 1/8 miles turfOptional claiming $45,000Even pace1 flag | |||||||||
| R8 | 11 | HARD CIRCLE | 14% | 6/1 | 8/1 | +5 | 1 | 22/26·8d | |
| R8 | 2 | DEBT LIMIT | 14% | 13/2 | 7/2 | -3 | 2 | 8/32·9d | |
| R8 | 4 | URGENCY | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 | -1 | 5 | B | 12/42·18d |
| R8 | 3 | SIESTA KEY | 10% | 10/1 | 5/1 | -3 | 10 | B | 12/40·12d |
| R8 | 9 | OUTSOURCE | 9% | 10/1 | 6/1 | -2 | 4 | B | 22/121·10d |
| R8 | 10 | VINTAGE VINO | 9% | 10/1 | 12/1 | +3 | 3 | 4/9·11d | |
| R8 | 1 | ENGLISH LAW | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 6 | 9/23·12d | |
| R8 | 6 | HAMMERHEAD | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 7 | W | •1/11·11d |
| R8 | 5 | HIGH BETA | 6% | 15/1 | 20/1 | +2 | 8 | BW | 8/8·12d |
| R8 | 8 | PRINTER'S ALLEY | 6% | 15/1 | 20/1 | +2 | 9 | B | 5/27·59d |
| R8 | 7 | RABAJA | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 | -2 | 12 | B | 8/11·9d |
| R8 | 12 | HOT PROPERTY | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | -1 | 11 | 12/52·9d | |
| R95 1/2 furlongs turfOptional claiming $45,000Contested pace likely (6 early-speed types)1 flag | |||||||||
| R9 | 5 | SEA VISTA | 27% | 5/2 | 6/1 | +16 | 1 | •1/53·29d | |
| R9 | 4 | ESCAPADES | 15% | 6/1 | 7/2 | -3 | 2 | ▼B | 2/3·30d |
| R9 | 2 | LIGHT FANTASTIC | 14% | 6/1 | 3/1 | -5 | 3 | B | 2/105·30d |
| R9 | 8 | AMBASSADOR BLUE | 11% | 8/1 | 9/2 | -4 | 5 | ▲W | •1/34·9d |
| R9 | 1 | ABRIGADO | 10% | 9/1 | 10/1 | +3 | 4 | BW | •1/59·11d |
| R9 | 3 | UTOPIAN | 7% | 15/1 | 8/1 | -2 | 7 | B | — |
| R9 | 10 | FROSTELLE | 6% | 15/1 | 20/1 | +2 | 6 | ▲W | •1/59·16d |
| R9 | 6 | GLOBAL PROSPERITY | 4% | 20/1 | 12/1 | -2 | 8 | W | 72/72·15d |
| R9 | 9 | KORRONGO | 4% | 25/1 | 10/1 | -3 | 10 | BW | 29/30·23d |
| R9 | 7 | SICILIAN DEFENSE | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 | -2 | 9 | ▼ | 1/1·5d |
| R106 furlongs dirtStakes, $200,000 purseContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass | |||||||||
| R10 | 5 | SCRAMJET | 27% | 5/2 | 9/5 | -1 | 1 | ▼ | 3/7·8d |
| R10 | 2 | FULLCUP | 24% | 3/1 | 2/1 | -3 | 3 | ▲W | 9/111·10d |
| R10 | 3 | MINDFIELD | 22% | 7/2 | 5/2 | 0 | 2 | W | •1/25·8d |
| R10 | 4 | D I WIRE | 13% | 13/2 | 8/1 | +5 | 4 | ▼W | •1/30·11d |
| R10 | 1 | PROFESSOR PLUM | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | 5 | ▲ | 88/115·8d |
| R10 | 6 | MIDNIGHT RAIDER | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | -1 | 6 | 3/13·7d | |
| R111 mile turfStakes, $200,000 purseContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag | |||||||||
| R11 | 6 | DOUBTING THOMAS | 19% | 9/2 | 8/1 | +10 | 1 | W | •1/12·8d |
| R11 | 2 | THIRD COAST | 15% | 11/2 | 5/1 | +2 | 2 | ▲W | •1/15·4d |
| R11 | 4 | LYNEHAM | 15% | 11/2 | 4/1 | -1 | — | ||
| R11 | 8 | CHUMMERS | 11% | 8/1 | 9/2 | -3 | 3 | 8/48·24d | |
| R11 | 7 | SIYOUINCANADA | 11% | 8/1 | 7/2 | -6 | 4 | ▼ | 6/57·8d |
| R11 | 3 | GLAVINE | 10% | 9/1 | 5/1 | -3 | 5 | W | 2/99·9d |
| R11 | 9 | BLACK HORNET | 9% | 10/1 | 6/1 | -2 | 6 | ▲ | 11/20·11d |
| R11 | 1 | GLORIOUS BOY | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 | +1 | 8 | ▲ | •1/9·10d |
| R11 | 5 | BULL SHOALS | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 | +1 | 7 | B | 6/57·8d |
| R125 1/2 furlongs turfMaiden claiming $50,000Even pace1 flag | |||||||||
| R12 | 6 | MIDTOWN MISCHIEF | 19% | 4/1 | 6/1 | +8 | 1 | BW | 22/22·9d |
| R12 | 12 | COPPER CADUCEUS | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 0 | 2 | 5/42·9d | |
| R12 | 3 | DAYLIGHT DREAMER | 11% | 15/2 | 6/1 | +1 | 3 | B | 26/31·9d |
| R12 | 2 | AVERY'S WONDERLAND | 10% | 9/1 | 5/1 | -2 | 5 | 6/32·5d | |
| R12 | 1 | TICKET TO RIDE | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 | -1 | 4 | B | — |
| R12 | 5 | MY LIL ARMY GIRL | 10% | 9/1 | 7/2 | -7 | 7 | 19/31·8d | |
| R12 | 7 | LIVELY PAL | 7% | 15/1 | 20/1 | +3 | 6 | B | •1/6·13d |
| R12 | 10 | YOU KNOW BETTER | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 8 | B | •1/9·16d |
| R12 | 8 | SASSY SATS | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 9 | W | •1/13·7d |
| R12 | 11 | QUELL | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 10 | W | 3/30·5d |
| R12 | 9 | ADROIT | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | -1 | 11 | B | 3/5·11d |
| R12 | 4 | BANK ON BEBE | 1% | 99/1 | 50/1 | -1 | 12 | B | 3/13·7d |
Rank is our power-figure blend, 1 is best. Why reads left to right: whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, and BLANK means we have nothing to say, so only rows with signal carry a mark. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.
Price your own ticket
The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 12 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.
Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | ACCENT | 30% | 5/2 | 8/5 | 20/99·9d |
| 6 | MAJAZ | 24% | 3/1 | 3/1 | •1/21·8d |
| 1 | MISS NIGHTFALL | 23% | 7/2 | 5/2 | 4/13·9d |
| 4 | SCARLETT'S HALO | 9% | 10/1 | 6/1 | •1/10·8d |
| 5 | CANDY MOONSHINE | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 6/51·18d |
| 3 | TWO MARTINI'S | 4% | 25/1 | 12/1 | 4/46·18d |
| 2 | LADY RIVER LILY | 1% | 50/1 | 30/1 | •1/10·5d |
No runner here is entitled to the lead on the early figures. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Nothing in here has shown real early speed on the figures the model reads.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | READY SET ROLL | 20% | 4/1 | 3/1 | 2/14·9d |
| 10 | HEIRSUTA | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 | •1/40·8d |
| 7 | NORAH BEGORRAH | 13% | 7/1 | 5/1 | 3/64·10d |
| 3 | EIGHT ROSE'S | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 12/13·8d |
| 6 | RESCUE DAWN | 9% | 11/1 | 8/1 | •1/7·5d |
| 5 | TOOKENETTE | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | •1/25·7d |
| 4 | FOURTEEN ROSES | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | •1/9·8d |
| 1 | SAINTLY VILLAIN | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 3/42·9d |
| 9 | JETSETTER | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | •1/12·6d |
| 8 | CALL ME | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | •1/37·4d |
Three of the 8 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over six furlongs on dirt in a $80,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | SHOW TIME | 18% | 9/2 | 5/1 | 8/8·9d |
| 8 | LITTLE THUNDER | 16% | 11/2 | 5/2 | •1/6·7d |
| 2 | GATE TO WIRE | 14% | 6/1 | 7/2 | 7/115·8d |
| 6 | TWENTY FOUR MAMBA | 14% | 13/2 | 8/1 | 2/14·14d |
| 1 | TWO EAGLES RIVER | 13% | 13/2 | 6/1 | 3/102·23d |
| 4 | SHARP SWINGER | 13% | 7/1 | 4/1 | •1/19·4d |
| 7 | BARB | 7% | 12/1 | 15/1 | •1/23·22d |
| 5 | PERFECT FORCE | 6% | 15/1 | 10/1 | 7/11·21d |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | BAKUTO | 18% | 9/2 | 3/1 | 62/149·8d |
| 10 | PLAN ON IT | 16% | 5/1 | 4/1 | 2/4·10d |
| 4 | SFUMATO | 15% | 6/1 | 7/2 | •1/7·4d |
| 5 | CHRIS'S SONG | 14% | 13/2 | 5/1 | 11/55·5d |
| 11 | ALWAYS HONEST | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 | 19/107·16d |
| 3 | KINGS LANDYN | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 | 31/42·18d |
| 2 | TAMPA STORM | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | •1/21·9d |
| 1 | THUNDERTAKER | 5% | 15/1 | 15/1 | 6/17·12d |
| 9 | TRUE ADIRONDACKER | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 | 10/89·9d |
| 7 | KLIMT MASTER | 2% | 50/1 | 50/1 | 22/25·16d |
| 8 | TAQUEETO JONES | 1% | 99/1 | 30/1 | •1/7·14d |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | GLOW OF A ROSE | 17% | 5/1 | 4/1 | •1/10·8d |
| 10 | NOBLE GLOW | 16% | 5/1 | 7/2 | 12/99·10d |
| 6 | MISS WATERMELON | 12% | 15/2 | 9/2 | •1/16·9d |
| 1 | JUST A GIRL | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | •1/13·8d |
| 7 | GUNS OF ROSES | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 12/127·8d |
| 9 | RAGING VORTEX | 9% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 3/107·8d |
| 3 | EPISODIC | 8% | 12/1 | 12/1 | 7/59·8d |
| 2 | SESASI | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | •1/10·8d |
| 4 | RED BEACH | 6% | 15/1 | 15/1 | •1/11·11d |
| 8 | FLYING HAWLEY | 4% | 20/1 | 15/1 | •1/8·7d |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | SECURED LANDING | 22% | 7/2 | 5/2 | 13/28·19d |
| 1 | GLEN AIRY | 18% | 9/2 | 3/1 | 5/9·31d |
| 9 | BERNIN HOT | 15% | 6/1 | 6/1 | 4/24·12d |
| 3 | FRIZZANTE | 11% | 8/1 | 5/1 | 3/28·11d |
| 7 | CASTLE CHAOS | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 | 114/116·58d |
| 8 | METATRON'S MUSE | 8% | 11/1 | 6/1 | 3/10·4d |
| 4 | LATE CALL | 8% | 12/1 | 20/1 | 35/37·18d |
| 5 | PEEK | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 18/23·12d |
| 6 | THREE TECHNIQUE | 4% | 25/1 | 15/1 | •1/13·13d |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | DAMAVAND | 20% | 4/1 | 3/1 | 2/3·7d |
| 9 | SHAHNAMEH | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 | •1/107·8d |
| 7 | DARGHAM | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 | 4/25·8d |
| 10 | BELLISSIMO D'ORO | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | •1/12·10d |
| 2 | HULLABALOO RAY RAY | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 1/3·7d |
| 6 | MOTAWAALI | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 | 3/5·8d |
| 8 | I'M AMERICA | 7% | 15/1 | 10/1 | 1/3·15d |
| 1 | ROUGHKIN | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 3/7·4d |
| 3 | LOUISIANA BABY | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 2/151·8d |
| 12 | HOOKED | 4% | 20/1 | 20/1 | •1/5·5d |
| 11 | CLOSING SURGE | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 4/12·8d |
| 5 | ROAD TO RAVELLO | 4% | 30/1 | 20/1 | 2/28·4d |
Three of the 6 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over six furlongs on dirt in a starter allowance should be contested rather than soft.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | SCRAMJET | 27% | 5/2 | 9/5 | 3/7·8d |
| 2 | FULLCUP | 24% | 3/1 | 2/1 | 9/111·10d |
| 3 | MINDFIELD | 22% | 7/2 | 5/2 | •1/25·8d |
| 4 | D I WIRE | 13% | 13/2 | 8/1 | •1/30·11d |
| 1 | PROFESSOR PLUM | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 88/115·8d |
| 6 | MIDNIGHT RAIDER | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | 3/13·7d |
We lose most single flags. That’s expected. The edge is price: when we’re right, the board paid more than fair. Our 30% picks win about 30% (see the calibration curve), and every call is graded against the closing odds, wins and losses.
No set price. On the tote you’re paid the closing odds, so the edge isn’t a line you beat early. It’s the gap between our fair number and where the crowd lands. We grade each flag against the actual close.
Our last miss: SAR R12 Irish Goodbye, flagged at 9/2, didn’t win, and it is on the record like every call.
Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 70a95150 · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 374b21635fba… · Scratch status checked at 2:25 PM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.
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