Del Mar, Mon Sep 7, 2026
Today’s card runs on TwinSpires as Edge Card Plays. Edge Card is an independent publication and is not a TwinSpires product; the plays and the record are the same ones published here.
New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.
Three of the 10 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five furlongs on turf in a $50,000 optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.
The model’s read ▾
It rates second on our own win number, 4.0 points behind the top, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.
3 of the 10 want the front over five furlongs on turf, so the early fractions should be honest.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | MISS HELLFIRE | 22% | 7/2 | 8/5 | 5/29·7d |
| 3 | MY GIRL MIA ◀ | 18% | 9/2 | 6/1 | 2/45·57d |
| 6 | FROG | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | •1/24·10d |
| 2 | MIMI'S MEMORY | 8% | 11/1 | 6/1 | 17/17·8d |
| 11 | JENNYS WINE GIRL | 8% | 12/1 | 15/1 | 8/29·9d |
| 7 | KINTRIGUE | 8% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 2/58·8d |
| 10 | ANGELICA BAY | 8% | 12/1 | 15/1 | 28/80·45d |
| 5 | QUEEN BAY | 7% | 15/1 | 8/1 | 27/37·7d |
| 1 | PENNY THE JET | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | •1/11·5d |
| 4 | FAMOUS FORZA | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 25/60·8d |
Three of the 7 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over six furlongs on dirt in a starter allowance should be contested rather than soft.
The model’s read ▾
EARLY ENCORE is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.
It tops our own win number, 7.3 points clear of the next one, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.
3 of the 7 want the front over six furlongs on dirt, so the early fractions should be honest.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | EARLY ENCORE ◀ | 36% | 9/5 | 9/5 | •1/134·9d |
| 6 | NET PAR | 29% | 5/2 | 8/5 | 9/55·7d |
| 1 | LITTLE KING | 12% | 7/1 | 6/1 | 8/11·8d |
| 5 | EMPIRE OF ASH | 8% | 12/1 | 6/1 | 26/37·29d |
| 3 | CUPID COWBOY | 7% | 15/1 | 8/1 | 46/111·9d |
| 4 | FUMANO'S FIRE | 6% | 15/1 | 15/1 | 1/1·21d |
| 2 | PRIME SPLASH | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | 5/11·8d |
Four of the 12 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five furlongs on turf in a $20,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.
The model’s read ▾
It tops our own win number, 2.3 points clear of the next one, and with 4 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.
4 of the 12 want the front over five furlongs on turf, so the early fractions should be honest.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | WE THE HOBBY ◀ | 16% | 5/1 | 8/1 | 4/21·5d |
| 8 | TAKING A JOY RIDE | 14% | 6/1 | 8/1 | 4/55·8d |
| 6 | THE LOAN EXCHANGE | 14% | 13/2 | 4/1 | 22/95·10d |
| 9 | BESSIE COLEMAN | 12% | 15/2 | 5/1 | 15/17·14d |
| 7 | FANCY FACTS | 11% | 8/1 | 7/2 | 6/103·9d |
| 2 | DONTTELLMEWHATTODO | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | •1/11·8d |
| 3 | CLUBHOUSE BRIDE | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | 4/12·7d |
| 11 | PETIT FILET | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 | 3/25·8d |
| 1 | A GREAT SHAKING | 4% | 20/1 | 12/1 | •1/58·11d |
| 10 | HOW ABOUT PAVEL | 4% | 25/1 | 12/1 | 2/11·9d |
| 4 | WHOPPER FACTOR | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 | •1/24·23d |
| 5 | CALIFORNIA ROCKS | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | •1/15·10d |
No one horse is entitled to the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.
The model’s read ▾
This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.
It rates second on our own win number, 0.7 points behind the top.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | THOUGHT PROCESS | 29% | 5/2 | 8/5 | 2/11·8d |
| 7 | MEDORO ◀ | 28% | 5/2 | 7/2 | •1/21·7d |
| 1 | WHISKEY DECISION | 8% | 11/1 | 6/1 | •1/5·8d |
| 5 | CANTO DELLA TERRA | 7% | 15/1 | 12/1 | •1/12·8d |
| 6 | BALTIC FIRE | 7% | 15/1 | 8/1 | 20/41·9d |
| 2 | PURA VIDA PRINCESA | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 7/45·25d |
| 3 | BOJACA BLESSING | 6% | 15/1 | 8/1 | 4/4·8d |
| 8 | FIBONACCIS RIDE | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 | 27/106·7d |
| 10 | VINCEY GIRL | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 5/27·7d |
| 9 | FIRENZE FLAVOR | 2% | 50/1 | 20/1 | •1/5·11d |
5 of the 10 have never gone a mile or longer
- 3Pavularfirst start on turf · top third of this field on turf breeding
- 4Vahevalabottom third of this field on breeding for the trip · blinkers on
- 10Endless Smokefirst start on turf · bottom third of this field on turf breeding
- 5Ms Grainger Dangerblinkers on
- 7Main Impacttop third of this field on breeding for the trip
- 7Cherry Candyfirst start on dirt · top third of this field on dirt breeding
- 3She Spendsalotblinkers off
- 10Joy The Imageblinkers on
3 of the 10 have never raced on turf
- 2Mimi's Memorytop third of this field on turf breeding · first start in 10 months · first-time Lasix
- 3My Girl Miabottom third of this field on turf breeding
- 6Frogfirst start in 11 months
- 9Miss Hellfirebottom third of this field on turf breeding
- 3Cotta Rideclaimed last time out
- 6Stay In Lineclaimed last time out
- 7Brookys Galfirst start in 8 months
- 8Lady Mendelssohnfirst start in 6 months
- 9Pavel's Etoilewent off at 5/2 last time and finished 6th
3 of the 10 have never gone a mile or longer
- 2Mo Bradleytop third of this field on breeding for the trip · first start in 10 months · first-time Lasix
- 7Fair Questionwent off at 6/5 last time and finished 9th · bottom third of this field on breeding for the trip
- 4Om Grown Tomatoesbottom third of this field on breeding for the trip
- 12We The Hobbyfirst start under a mile · bottom third of this field on breeding for the trip
- 3Clubhouse Brideclaimed last time out
- 5California Rocksfirst start in 6 months
- 9Firenze Flavorfirst start in 10 months · Drayden Van Dyke back aboard, a winner on this horse four starts back
5 of the 12 were claimed last time out
- 3Hard To FigureJuan J Hernandez back aboard, a winner on this horse three starts back
- 10Taiffirst start on turf · top third of this field on turf breeding · first start in 8 months · blinkers off
- 8Scorpyfirst start on turf · first start at a mile or longer
- 11Timayyyywent off at 6/5 last time and finished 4th · claimed last time out
- 1American Kingblinkers on
- 5Khonsublinkers off
- and 1 more with something to note
Facts about the race, not predictions. A class move is shown with the finish it came off so you can judge it; we do not claim any of these wins, and only the flagged win bets above are graded on the record.
The whole card every runner, our number beside the board
| R | # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Edge | Rank | Why | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R11 mile turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R1 | 8 | TIGER LUCK | 27% | 3/1 | 3/1 | +7 | 1 | 3/21·11d | |
| R1 | 6 | ROSA'S MIRACLE | 25% | 3/1 | 5/2 | +3 | 2 | B | 25/76·9d |
| R1 | 3 | PAVULAR | 18% | 9/2 | 3/1 | -2 | 3 | 19/37·22d | |
| R1 | 5 | MS GRAINGER DANGER | 13% | 7/1 | 5/1 | 0 | 4 | B | 10/11·22d |
| R1 | 1 | REJOICEFUL | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 2/17·11d | ||
| R1 | 10 | ENDLESS SMOKE | 3% | 30/1 | 12/1 | -3 | 6 | BW | 3/42·8d |
| R1 | 7 | MAIN IMPACT | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 5 | 3/5·17d | |
| R1 | 9 | ICECREAM ONTHESIDE | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 | -2 | 8 | 19/20·23d | |
| R1 | 4 | VAHEVALA | 2% | 50/1 | 15/1 | -2 | 9 | B | 8/16·8d |
| R1 | 2 | DIVINE KISMET | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | -1 | 7 | 14/15·18d | |
| R25 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden claiming $16,000Even pacepass | |||||||||
| R2 | 9 | STYLISHLY BIG | 21% | 4/1 | 7/2 | +4 | 1 | B | 20/138·37d |
| R2 | 7 | CHERRY CANDY | 18% | 9/2 | 5/1 | +5 | 2 | 2/4·6d | |
| R2 | 1 | FORGOTTEN MEMORIES | 11% | 15/2 | 9/2 | -3 | 3 | 13/19·11d | |
| R2 | 6 | DARLIN' DUCHESS | 8% | 12/1 | 8/1 | -1 | 4 | 8/33·23d | |
| R2 | 11 | STORMY GAL | 7% | 12/1 | 6/1 | -4 | 7 | B | 2/4·22d |
| R2 | 2 | SURPRISE D' ORO | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 | -2 | 6 | 3/13·7d | |
| R2 | 4 | LIST MY BIZ | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | +1 | 5 | 4/17·10d | |
| R2 | 8 | DEL MARGARITA | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | B | 10/12·7d | |
| R2 | 5 | I'M LOVESTRUCK | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | W | 3/105·8d | |
| R2 | 3 | SHE SPENDSALOT | 4% | 25/1 | 15/1 | -1 | 9 | 36/64·8d | |
| R2 | 12 | MARVELOUSMISSMABEL | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 | +1 | 8 | 4/17·7d | |
| R2 | 10 | JOY THE IMAGE | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | 0 | 10 | W | 29/33·31d |
| R35 furlongs turfOptional claiming $50,000Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag | |||||||||
| R3 | 9 | MISS HELLFIRE | 22% | 7/2 | 8/5 | -8 | 2 | ▼ | 5/29·7d |
| R3 | 3 | MY GIRL MIA | 18% | 9/2 | 6/1 | +7 | 1 | ▼ | 2/45·57d |
| R3 | 6 | FROG | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 6 | W | •1/24·10d |
| R3 | 2 | MIMI'S MEMORY | 8% | 11/1 | 6/1 | -3 | 7 | ▼ | 17/17·8d |
| R3 | 11 | JENNYS WINE GIRL | 8% | 12/1 | 15/1 | +3 | 3 | 8/29·9d | |
| R3 | 7 | KINTRIGUE | 8% | 12/1 | 10/1 | +1 | 4 | ▼W | 2/58·8d |
| R3 | 10 | ANGELICA BAY | 8% | 12/1 | 15/1 | +3 | 5 | 28/80·45d | |
| R3 | 5 | QUEEN BAY | 7% | 15/1 | 8/1 | -2 | 9 | ▲ | 27/37·7d |
| R3 | 1 | PENNY THE JET | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | W | •1/11·5d | |
| R3 | 4 | FAMOUS FORZA | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 8 | 25/60·8d | |
| R46 1/2 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $20,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass | |||||||||
| R4 | 1 | MISS KONA | 18% | 9/2 | 3/1 | -2 | 3 | ▲ | 14/17·9d |
| R4 | 4 | DOTTIE HINSON | 16% | 5/1 | 4/1 | +1 | 2 | 8/17·25d | |
| R4 | 6 | STAY IN LINE | 14% | 6/1 | 5/1 | +1 | 1 | ▼ | 8/18·19d |
| R4 | 3 | COTTA RIDE | 10% | 9/1 | 5/1 | -3 | 6 | 32/89·24d | |
| R4 | 9 | PAVEL'S ETOILE | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 | +1 | 5 | ▲B | 26/76·8d |
| R4 | 2 | SMILE BABY SMILE | 10% | 9/1 | 12/1 | +4 | 4 | 3/27·23d | |
| R4 | 7 | BROOKYS GAL | 8% | 11/1 | 12/1 | +2 | 7 | ▲ | 3/16·8d |
| R4 | 8 | LADY MENDELSSOHN | 8% | 12/1 | 5/1 | -6 | 9 | W | •1/33·11d |
| R4 | 5 | ZADRA | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 | +1 | 8 | W | •1/23·10d |
| R51 mile turfMaiden special weightContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass | |||||||||
| R5 | 3 | GOING NOWHERE | 18% | 9/2 | 7/2 | 0 | 1 | B | •1/5·60d |
| R5 | 11 | THROWTHEFIRSTPUNCH | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 0 | 3 | ▲ | 6/38·37d |
| R5 | 6 | LOW KEY COOL | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 | 0 | W | •1/14·10d | |
| R5 | 9 | FAWCETT | 12% | 15/2 | 6/1 | +1 | 2 | ▼ | 5/29·11d |
| R5 | 10 | DOING TIME | 10% | 9/1 | 12/1 | +4 | 4 | ▲BW | 4/40·11d |
| R5 | 7 | FAIR QUESTION | 9% | 10/1 | 5/1 | -4 | 7 | BW | 2/52·7d |
| R5 | 12 | ROYAL RUMOR | 9% | 11/1 | 6/1 | -3 | 5 | ▼W | 2/54·8d |
| R5 | 2 | MO BRADLEY | 9% | 11/1 | 12/1 | +3 | 6 | ▲BW | •1/30·7d |
| R5 | 4 | OM GROWN TOMATOES | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 8 | B | 8/14·36d |
| R5 | 8 | OMISSION | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | -1 | 9 | B | 7/51·15d |
| R66 furlongs dirtStakes, $100,000 purseContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag | |||||||||
| R6 | 7 | EARLY ENCORE | 36% | 9/5 | 9/5 | +7 | 1 | ▼BW | •1/134·9d |
| R6 | 6 | NET PAR | 29% | 5/2 | 8/5 | -2 | 2 | ▲ | 9/55·7d |
| R6 | 1 | LITTLE KING | 12% | 7/1 | 6/1 | +1 | 3 | B | 8/11·8d |
| R6 | 5 | EMPIRE OF ASH | 8% | 12/1 | 6/1 | -4 | 6 | ▲ | 26/37·29d |
| R6 | 3 | CUPID COWBOY | 7% | 15/1 | 8/1 | -2 | 5 | B | 46/111·9d |
| R6 | 4 | FUMANO'S FIRE | 6% | 15/1 | 15/1 | +1 | 4 | ▼B | 1/1·21d |
| R6 | 2 | PRIME SPLASH | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | -1 | 7 | ▼B | 5/11·8d |
| R75 furlongs turfOptional claiming $20,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)1 flag | |||||||||
| R7 | 12 | WE THE HOBBY | 16% | 5/1 | 8/1 | +8 | 1 | 4/21·5d | |
| R7 | 8 | TAKING A JOY RIDE | 14% | 6/1 | 8/1 | +6 | 2 | BW | 4/55·8d |
| R7 | 6 | THE LOAN EXCHANGE | 14% | 13/2 | 4/1 | -2 | 3 | ▼ | 22/95·10d |
| R7 | 9 | BESSIE COLEMAN | 12% | 15/2 | 5/1 | -1 | 5 | ▲ | 15/17·14d |
| R7 | 7 | FANCY FACTS | 11% | 8/1 | 7/2 | -6 | 6 | ▼W | 6/103·9d |
| R7 | 2 | DONTTELLMEWHATTODO | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | 4 | ▼BW | •1/11·8d |
| R7 | 3 | CLUBHOUSE BRIDE | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | -1 | 9 | ▲ | 4/12·7d |
| R7 | 11 | PETIT FILET | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 | +1 | 7 | ▼B | 3/25·8d |
| R7 | 1 | A GREAT SHAKING | 4% | 20/1 | 12/1 | -1 | 8 | ▼W | •1/58·11d |
| R7 | 10 | HOW ABOUT PAVEL | 4% | 25/1 | 12/1 | -2 | 11 | ▼ | 2/11·9d |
| R7 | 4 | WHOPPER FACTOR | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 | +1 | 10 | •1/24·23d | |
| R7 | 5 | CALIFORNIA ROCKS | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | -1 | 12 | ▲BW | •1/15·10d |
| R85 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightLone speedpass | |||||||||
| R8 | 8 | IMPERIAL HONOR | 23% | 7/2 | 5/2 | 0 | B | 1/3·7d | |
| R8 | 10 | DOMENICI | 15% | 6/1 | 4/1 | -1 | 1 | W | •1/89·9d |
| R8 | 3 | MAGIC TIME | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | 8/52·7d | ||
| R8 | 6 | MOSIGMA | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 | -1 | 2 | W | •1/40·11d |
| R8 | 1 | BOLD TYPE | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 0 | BW | 2/27·8d | |
| R8 | 9 | YOU WANT SOME | 9% | 10/1 | 12/1 | +3 | 3 | ▲W | •1/15·20d |
| R8 | 2 | MIXIT | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 0 | W | 2/37·7d | |
| R8 | 5 | MOONFLIGHT | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 4/27·7d | ||
| R8 | 7 | CYPRUS AVENUE | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | 4/28·7d | ||
| R8 | 4 | A P OXBOW | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 2/11·8d | ||
| R91 1/8 miles turfGrade 2 stakesEven pace1 flag | |||||||||
| R9 | 4 | THOUGHT PROCESS | 29% | 5/2 | 8/5 | -1 | 2 | 2/11·8d | |
| R9 | 7 | MEDORO | 28% | 5/2 | 7/2 | +11 | 1 | W | •1/21·7d |
| R9 | 1 | WHISKEY DECISION | 8% | 11/1 | 6/1 | -3 | 4 | •1/5·8d | |
| R9 | 5 | CANTO DELLA TERRA | 7% | 15/1 | 12/1 | +1 | 3 | W | •1/12·8d |
| R9 | 6 | BALTIC FIRE | 7% | 15/1 | 8/1 | -2 | 7 | B | 20/41·9d |
| R9 | 2 | PURA VIDA PRINCESA | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 5 | 7/45·25d | |
| R9 | 3 | BOJACA BLESSING | 6% | 15/1 | 8/1 | -3 | 9 | 4/4·8d | |
| R9 | 8 | FIBONACCIS RIDE | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 | +1 | 6 | 27/106·7d | |
| R9 | 10 | VINCEY GIRL | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 8 | 5/27·7d | |
| R9 | 9 | FIRENZE FLAVOR | 2% | 50/1 | 20/1 | -2 | 10 | B | •1/5·11d |
| R106 1/2 furlongs dirtStarter allowance, $20,000 levelEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R10 | 3 | HARD TO FIGURE | 15% | 11/2 | 7/2 | -2 | 1 | B | 9/64·23d |
| R10 | 8 | KNOWN IDEA | 13% | 13/2 | 4/1 | -3 | 2 | W | 3/91·9d |
| R10 | 10 | JOINT VENTURE | 11% | 15/2 | 6/1 | 0 | 4 | B | 2/2·21d |
| R10 | 7 | SEE THROUGH IT | 11% | 8/1 | 5/1 | -2 | 5 | W | 9/111·9d |
| R10 | 9 | WHISKYGINANDBRANDY | 9% | 10/1 | 12/1 | +3 | 3 | W | 2/111·9d |
| R10 | 4 | DISKO TRIBUTE | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 7 | 1/2·8d | |
| R10 | 11 | SMOKEM EZ | 7% | 12/1 | 15/1 | +2 | 6 | 1/3·9d | |
| R10 | 2 | HONDO CROUCH | 6% | 15/1 | 20/1 | +2 | 8 | 5/37·22d | |
| R10 | 1 | ITS A CINCH | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | 9 | W | •1/78·9d |
| R10 | 12 | SOI NGERN | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | 11 | 52/111·9d | |
| R10 | 6 | IN THE TANK | 4% | 20/1 | 20/1 | +1 | 10 | B | 17/111·9d |
| R10 | 5 | SINGLEMORE | 4% | 25/1 | 15/1 | -1 | 12 | 15/61·8d | |
| R111 1/16 miles turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R11 | 10 | TAIF | 19% | 4/1 | 4/1 | +4 | 1 | B | 1/2·7d |
| R11 | 7 | YEP | 16% | 11/2 | 6/1 | +5 | 2 | 4/26·7d | |
| R11 | 4 | CONSTITUTION ANDI | 12% | 15/2 | 6/1 | +1 | 4 | 20/67·35d | |
| R11 | 12 | HAZAKA | 11% | 8/1 | 8/1 | +2 | 3 | W | 2/28·7d |
| R11 | 9 | PARKER'S CANDY | 10% | 9/1 | 5/1 | -3 | 5 | BW | •1/42·8d |
| R11 | 3 | GO RALPH | 9% | 10/1 | 6/1 | -2 | 6 | 2/10·9d | |
| R11 | 6 | POSTMODERN | 5% | 20/1 | 8/1 | -3 | 9 | 6/38·7d | |
| R11 | 11 | TIMAYYYY | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | 7 | B | 6/28·8d |
| R11 | 8 | SCORPY | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | -1 | 8 | W | •1/11·2d |
| R11 | 5 | KHONSU | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | -1 | 10 | BW | •1/20·9d |
| R11 | 2 | FAUSTO | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | -1 | 11 | 2/2·10d | |
| R11 | 1 | AMERICAN KING | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | 0 | 12 | BW | •1/61·8d |
Rank is our power-figure blend, 1 is best. Why reads left to right: whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, and BLANK means we have nothing to say, so only rows with signal carry a mark. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.
Price your own ticket
The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 11 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.
Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | TIGER LUCK | 27% | 3/1 | 3/1 | 3/21·11d |
| 6 | ROSA'S MIRACLE | 25% | 3/1 | 5/2 | 25/76·9d |
| 3 | PAVULAR | 18% | 9/2 | 3/1 | 19/37·22d |
| 5 | MS GRAINGER DANGER | 13% | 7/1 | 5/1 | 10/11·22d |
| 1 | REJOICEFUL | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 2/17·11d |
| 10 | ENDLESS SMOKE | 3% | 30/1 | 12/1 | 3/42·8d |
| 7 | MAIN IMPACT | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | 3/5·17d |
| 9 | ICECREAM ONTHESIDE | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 | 19/20·23d |
| 4 | VAHEVALA | 2% | 50/1 | 15/1 | 8/16·8d |
| 2 | DIVINE KISMET | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | 14/15·18d |
Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Nothing in here has shown real early speed on the figures the model reads.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | STYLISHLY BIG | 21% | 4/1 | 7/2 | 20/138·37d |
| 7 | CHERRY CANDY | 18% | 9/2 | 5/1 | 2/4·6d |
| 1 | FORGOTTEN MEMORIES | 11% | 15/2 | 9/2 | 13/19·11d |
| 6 | DARLIN' DUCHESS | 8% | 12/1 | 8/1 | 8/33·23d |
| 11 | STORMY GAL | 7% | 12/1 | 6/1 | 2/4·22d |
| 2 | SURPRISE D' ORO | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 | 3/13·7d |
| 4 | LIST MY BIZ | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 4/17·10d |
| 8 | DEL MARGARITA | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 10/12·7d |
| 5 | I'M LOVESTRUCK | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 3/105·8d |
| 3 | SHE SPENDSALOT | 4% | 25/1 | 15/1 | 36/64·8d |
| 12 | MARVELOUSMISSMABEL | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 | 4/17·7d |
| 10 | JOY THE IMAGE | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | 29/33·31d |
Three of the 9 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over six and a half furlongs on dirt in a $20,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MISS KONA | 18% | 9/2 | 3/1 | 14/17·9d |
| 4 | DOTTIE HINSON | 16% | 5/1 | 4/1 | 8/17·25d |
| 6 | STAY IN LINE | 14% | 6/1 | 5/1 | 8/18·19d |
| 3 | COTTA RIDE | 10% | 9/1 | 5/1 | 32/89·24d |
| 9 | PAVEL'S ETOILE | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 | 26/76·8d |
| 2 | SMILE BABY SMILE | 10% | 9/1 | 12/1 | 3/27·23d |
| 7 | BROOKYS GAL | 8% | 11/1 | 12/1 | 3/16·8d |
| 8 | LADY MENDELSSOHN | 8% | 12/1 | 5/1 | •1/33·11d |
| 5 | ZADRA | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 | •1/23·10d |
Three of the 10 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile on turf in a maiden special weight should be contested rather than soft.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | GOING NOWHERE | 18% | 9/2 | 7/2 | •1/5·60d |
| 11 | THROWTHEFIRSTPUNCH | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 6/38·37d |
| 6 | LOW KEY COOL | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 | •1/14·10d |
| 9 | FAWCETT | 12% | 15/2 | 6/1 | 5/29·11d |
| 10 | DOING TIME | 10% | 9/1 | 12/1 | 4/40·11d |
| 7 | FAIR QUESTION | 9% | 10/1 | 5/1 | 2/52·7d |
| 12 | ROYAL RUMOR | 9% | 11/1 | 6/1 | 2/54·8d |
| 2 | MO BRADLEY | 9% | 11/1 | 12/1 | •1/30·7d |
| 4 | OM GROWN TOMATOES | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | 8/14·36d |
| 8 | OMISSION | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | 7/51·15d |
One of the 10 looks alone on the lead, clear of the field on the early figures over five and a half furlongs on dirt, with nothing else in here entitled to go with it.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | IMPERIAL HONOR | 23% | 7/2 | 5/2 | 1/3·7d |
| 10 | DOMENICI | 15% | 6/1 | 4/1 | •1/89·9d |
| 3 | MAGIC TIME | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 8/52·7d |
| 6 | MOSIGMA | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 | •1/40·11d |
| 1 | BOLD TYPE | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 2/27·8d |
| 9 | YOU WANT SOME | 9% | 10/1 | 12/1 | •1/15·20d |
| 2 | MIXIT | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 2/37·7d |
| 5 | MOONFLIGHT | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 4/27·7d |
| 7 | CYPRUS AVENUE | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 4/28·7d |
| 4 | A P OXBOW | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 2/11·8d |
No runner here is entitled to the lead on the early figures. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | HARD TO FIGURE | 15% | 11/2 | 7/2 | 9/64·23d |
| 8 | KNOWN IDEA | 13% | 13/2 | 4/1 | 3/91·9d |
| 10 | JOINT VENTURE | 11% | 15/2 | 6/1 | 2/2·21d |
| 7 | SEE THROUGH IT | 11% | 8/1 | 5/1 | 9/111·9d |
| 9 | WHISKYGINANDBRANDY | 9% | 10/1 | 12/1 | 2/111·9d |
| 4 | DISKO TRIBUTE | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 1/2·8d |
| 11 | SMOKEM EZ | 7% | 12/1 | 15/1 | 1/3·9d |
| 2 | HONDO CROUCH | 6% | 15/1 | 20/1 | 5/37·22d |
| 1 | ITS A CINCH | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | •1/78·9d |
| 12 | SOI NGERN | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 52/111·9d |
| 6 | IN THE TANK | 4% | 20/1 | 20/1 | 17/111·9d |
| 5 | SINGLEMORE | 4% | 25/1 | 15/1 | 15/61·8d |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | TAIF | 19% | 4/1 | 4/1 | 1/2·7d |
| 7 | YEP | 16% | 11/2 | 6/1 | 4/26·7d |
| 4 | CONSTITUTION ANDI | 12% | 15/2 | 6/1 | 20/67·35d |
| 12 | HAZAKA | 11% | 8/1 | 8/1 | 2/28·7d |
| 9 | PARKER'S CANDY | 10% | 9/1 | 5/1 | •1/42·8d |
| 3 | GO RALPH | 9% | 10/1 | 6/1 | 2/10·9d |
| 6 | POSTMODERN | 5% | 20/1 | 8/1 | 6/38·7d |
| 11 | TIMAYYYY | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 6/28·8d |
| 8 | SCORPY | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | •1/11·2d |
| 5 | KHONSU | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | •1/20·9d |
| 2 | FAUSTO | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | 2/2·10d |
| 1 | AMERICAN KING | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | •1/61·8d |
We lose most single flags. That’s expected. The edge is price: when we’re right, the board paid more than fair. Our 30% picks win about 30% (see the calibration curve), and every call is graded against the closing odds, wins and losses.
No set price. On the tote you’re paid the closing odds, so the edge isn’t a line you beat early. It’s the gap between our fair number and where the crowd lands. We grade each flag against the actual close.
Our last miss: SAR R12 Irish Goodbye, flagged at 9/2, didn’t win, and it is on the record like every call.
Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 70a95150 · takeout (DMR) win 15.43% / exacta 22.68% · card SHA-256 98f0855a6457… · Scratch status checked at 2:56 PM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.
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