Saratoga, Sun Sep 6, 2026
12 races · published 12:24 PM ET · card locked
4 value plays today · 8 races we're passing
Edge of the Day
4PLAY WITH FIRE
Race 2 · 1 1/16 miles turf
45%model6/5fair8/5boardWINpaid at the close
Our biggest edge on the card today (+15 pts over the board), the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number, so size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.
Today at SaratogaSunny, 72°F, wind 8 mph · rain 1%, no off-track flagNWS forecast
Also on TwinSpires
Bet these plays at TwinSpiresToday’s card runs on TwinSpires as Edge Card Plays. Edge Card is an independent publication and is not a TwinSpires product; the plays and the record are the same ones published here.
Flags 4 of 12 races
New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.
Today’s plays4 flags
RaceHorseModelBoardEdge
R24Play With Fire45%8/5+15 ptsR68Iron Sight33%2/1+7 ptsR103Booked28%3/1+8 ptsR123Irish Goodbye21%9/2+7 ptsFlagShare
4PLAY WITH FIRE
Model
Fair
Board
45%
6/5
8/5
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
Likely bet down A short board price for this track, and prices this short more often shorten by post than not. Still a win play, but expect a smaller number than the board shows, because pari-mutuel pays the close. Size it smaller.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Barn angle strong here
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
No one horse is entitled to the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.
The model’s read ▾
This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.
It tops our own win number, 21.3 points clear of the next one.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | PLAY WITH FIRE ◀ | 45% | 6/5 | 8/5 | 43/131·8d |
| 6 | UNREASONABLE | 23% | 7/2 | 2/1 | •1/6·9d |
| 1 | INEFFICIENCY | 12% | 15/2 | 4/1 | 7/43·7d |
| 5 | POP ART | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 2/60·3d |
| 2 | ALLAMERICANBEAUTY | 7% | 15/1 | 5/1 | •1/35·9d |
| 3 | REINING FLOWERS | 5% | 20/1 | 10/1 | 7/14·15d |
FlagShare
8IRON SIGHT
Model
Fair
Board
33%
2/1
2/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
The board and our fair price round to the same number (2/1), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show, it is +6.8 points of win probability, not a longer price.
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
Likely bet down A short board price for this track, and prices this short more often shorten by post than not. Still a win play, but expect a smaller number than the board shows, because pari-mutuel pays the close. Size it smaller.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Barn angle strong here
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.
The model’s read ▾
IRON SIGHT is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.
It tops our own win number, 8.2 points clear of the next one.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | IRON SIGHT ◀ | 33% | 2/1 | 2/1 | 12/87·8d |
| 5 | NOBLE FACTOR | 25% | 3/1 | 3/1 | •1/4·9d |
| 3 | MARKET TIMING | 14% | 6/1 | 4/1 | •1/5·8d |
| 2 | NOBLE DYNASTY | 13% | 7/1 | 7/2 | •1/39·16d |
| 4 | HEATHGUARD | 5% | 20/1 | 10/1 | 48/149·35d |
| 1 | FROSTED OVER | 4% | 20/1 | 20/1 | •1/78·7d |
| 7 | CLEAR CONSCIENCE | 4% | 25/1 | 12/1 | 22/27·25d |
| 6 | OMAHA STORM | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 | 2/18·8d |
FlagShare
3BOOKED
Model
Fair
Board
28%
5/2
3/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
Likely bet down A short board price for this track, and prices this short more often shorten by post than not. Still a win play, but expect a smaller number than the board shows, because pari-mutuel pays the close. Size it smaller.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend; projects as the lone early speed.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Alone on the lead3
One of the 8 looks alone on the lead, clear of the field on the early figures over seven furlongs on dirt, with nothing else in here entitled to go with it.
The model’s read ▾
It tops our own win number, 14.0 points clear of the next one, in a race where one of them looks like getting loose on the lead.
In a field of 8 it profiles as the lone speed over seven furlongs on dirt, likely uncontested on the front end, and we bumped it for that (×1.15).
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | BOOKED ◀ | 28% | 5/2 | 3/1 | 3/6·6d |
| 1 | THE GOOD LIFE | 14% | 13/2 | 7/2 | 5/64·8d |
| 7 | LIFESONG | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 | •1/13·8d |
| 5 | MIDNIGHT STILL | 12% | 7/1 | 9/2 | •1/127·7d |
| 8 | MYSTRIX | 12% | 7/1 | 4/1 | •1/47·8d |
| 2 | HIGH OFFICIAL | 11% | 8/1 | 8/1 | 2/11·8d |
| 4 | FLIGHT COMMAND | 7% | 15/1 | 10/1 | 2/18·3d |
| 6 | CONSTANT FORCE | 4% | 25/1 | 15/1 | •1/9·7d |
FlagShare
3IRISH GOODBYE
Model
Fair
Board
21%
4/1
9/2
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Barn angle strong here
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
No runner here is entitled to the lead on the early figures. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.
It tops our own win number, 5.8 points clear of the next one.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | IRISH GOODBYE ◀ | 21% | 4/1 | 9/2 | 3/23·7d |
| 11 | OHONTE'S OWN | 15% | 11/2 | 7/2 | 6/39·9d |
| 9 | MAIN THING | 12% | 15/2 | 6/1 | 4/65·14d |
| 10 | ENGRAVED | 9% | 10/1 | 5/1 | 2/43·7d |
| 2 | MY TOGO | 9% | 10/1 | 10/1 | •1/5·8d |
| 8 | DAISY DOO | 8% | 12/1 | 12/1 | 13/14·7d |
| 12 | KOTLIKOFF | 8% | 12/1 | 8/1 | 3/5·9d |
| 7 | TANGO TANGO | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 | 30/59·10d |
| 5 | TIZIO | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | •1/16·14d |
| 6 | TWENTY ONE RED | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 | 9/65·7d |
| 1 | COURAGEUX | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 | 7/7·10d |
| 4 | NOTHINGBUTNITRO | 1% | 99/1 | 50/1 | 2/4·11d |
What to know about each race today
R16 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden claiming $45,000
- 4Warnockfirst start on dirt · top third of this field on dirt breeding · new barn since the last start, now with Joe Sharp · blinkers on
- 6Crazy Bustedfirst start on dirt · bottom third of this field on dirt breeding
- 8Disparate Impactdrops from $85,000 to $45,000 off a 4th · claimed last time out
- 9The Standarddrops from $85,000 to $45,000 off a 5th · went off at 2/1 last time and finished 5th
- 1Torre Eiffelclaimed last time out
- and 2 more with something to note
R21 1/16 miles turfOptional claiming $80,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starter
- 1Inefficiencywent off at 9/5 last time and finished 5th · first start on turf · top third of this field on turf breeding
- 2Allamericanbeautyfirst start in 11 months · new barn since the last start, now with Jonathan Thomas · blinkers off
R36 1/2 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $55,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starter
- 5With A Kissfirst start in 10 months · first-time Lasix
- 1Roman Graceclaimed last time out
- 6Street Viewclaimed last time out
R46 furlongs dirtGrade 3 stakes
- 6Hen Partyblinkers on
R55 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden special weight
- 3Top Thrillerblinkers on
- 7Wartoendallwarsnew barn since the last start, now with Wayne Potts
R61 3/8 miles turfOptional claiming $55,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starter
3 of the 8 were claimed last time out
- 4Heathguardup from $25,000 to $55,000 off a second
- 6Omaha Stormfirst-time Lasix
R71 1/8 miles turfMaiden claiming $50,000
- 12Dancing Miraclefirst start at a mile or longer · bottom third of this field on breeding for the trip
- 4Whatta Weekendblinkers off
R81 mile dirtClaiming $20,000
- 4Sara's Shamandrops from $50,000 to $20,000 off a 7th · new barn since the last start, now with Mertkan Kantarmaci
- 2He's Got Thisup from $10,000 to $20,000 off a second
- 5Riyadh Moonclaimed last time out
- 6Outtawaterburyfirst start on dirt
- 9Brigadier Generalblinkers on
R96 furlongs dirtAllowance $105,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starter
- 9Vekindafirst start in over a year · Manuel Franco back aboard, a winner on this horse three starts back · blinkers off
- 2King FarroK Carmouche back aboard, a winner on this horse two starts back · new barn since the last start, now with Michael J Maker
- 4Lord Chathamnew barn since the last start, now with Bruce Levine
- 5Calling Cardclaimed last time out
- 6BlamickerAndre Shivnarine Worrie is here for this one ride, the first of the meet
- and 1 more with something to note
R107 furlongs dirtGrade 1 stakes
- 2High Officialfirst start on dirt · first start under a mile · bottom third of this field on dirt breeding
- 4Flight Commandwent off at 8/5 last time and finished 6th · blinkers on
R115 1/2 furlongs turfStakes, $150,000 purse
- 1Jean ValjeanJomar Torres is here for this one ride, the first of the meet
- 5Billionaires Rowclaimed last time out
R121 mile turfMaiden special weight
4 of the 12 have never raced on turf
3 of the 12 have never gone a mile or longer
- 10Engravedtop third of this field on breeding for the trip · blinkers on
- 12Kotlikofffirst start in 8 months · first-time Lasix
- 3Irish Goodbyebottom third of this field on turf breeding
- 4Nothingbutnitrobottom third of this field on turf breeding
- 6Twenty One Redblinkers off
- and 2 more with something to note
Facts about the race, not predictions. A class move is shown with the finish it came off so you can judge it; we do not claim any of these wins, and only the flagged win bets above are graded on the record.
The whole card every runner, our number beside the board
| R | # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Edge | Rank | Why | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R16 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden claiming $45,000Even pacepass | |||||||||
| R1 | 9 | THE STANDARD | 23% | 7/2 | 5/2 | +1 | 1 | 8/12·8d | |
| R1 | 8 | DISPARATE IMPACT | 22% | 7/2 | 3/1 | +2 | 2 | B | 42/127·7d |
| R1 | 5 | POWER SPEED | 12% | 15/2 | 5/1 | -1 | 4 | 7/21·10d | |
| R1 | 4 | WARNOCK | 11% | 8/1 | 9/2 | -3 | 6 | 1/3·9d | |
| R1 | 1 | TORRE EIFFEL | 11% | 8/1 | 8/1 | +2 | 3 | 16/31·11d | |
| R1 | 7 | NORDIC FYRE | 9% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 5 | B | 10/11·10d |
| R1 | 6 | CRAZY BUSTED | 6% | 15/1 | 20/1 | +2 | 7 | 22/49·28d | |
| R1 | 2 | HOLDING POWER | 4% | 20/1 | 12/1 | -2 | 8 | BW | •1/11·9d |
| R1 | 3 | ZENORO | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 0 | B | 10/41·9d | |
| R21 1/16 miles turfOptional claiming $80,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pace1 flag | |||||||||
| R2 | 4 | PLAY WITH FIRE | 45% | 6/5 | 8/5 | +15 | 1 | B | 43/131·8d |
| R2 | 6 | UNREASONABLE | 23% | 7/2 | 2/1 | -3 | 2 | •1/6·9d | |
| R2 | 1 | INEFFICIENCY | 12% | 15/2 | 4/1 | -4 | 3 | 7/43·7d | |
| R2 | 5 | POP ART | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 4 | W | 2/60·3d |
| R2 | 2 | ALLAMERICANBEAUTY | 7% | 15/1 | 5/1 | -6 | 6 | BW | •1/35·9d |
| R2 | 3 | REINING FLOWERS | 5% | 20/1 | 10/1 | -2 | 5 | 7/14·15d | |
| R36 1/2 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $55,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass | |||||||||
| R3 | 4 | NEXT ON STAGE | 19% | 4/1 | 7/2 | +2 | 1 | ▲ | 18/25·7d |
| R3 | 1 | ROMAN GRACE | 16% | 5/1 | 5/1 | +3 | 2 | 5/39·8d | |
| R3 | 2 | STAR ACTRESS | 16% | 11/2 | 6/1 | +5 | 3 | ▲W | •1/10·7d |
| R3 | 6 | STREET VIEW | 15% | 6/1 | 9/2 | 0 | 5 | ▲ | 7/99·22d |
| R3 | 3 | ROMANTIC DANCER | 13% | 7/1 | 9/2 | -1 | 4 | ▼ | 26/54·7d |
| R3 | 5 | WITH A KISS | 12% | 7/1 | 3/1 | -7 | 6 | ▼W | •1/13·7d |
| R3 | 7 | LOVELY CHRISTINA | 9% | 10/1 | 6/1 | -2 | 7 | ▼ | 50/131·7d |
| R46 furlongs dirtGrade 3 stakesContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass | |||||||||
| R4 | 3 | MASHALLAH | 33% | 2/1 | 7/5 | 0 | 1 | ▼ | 1/2·9d |
| R4 | 4 | GOODALL | 28% | 5/2 | 8/5 | -2 | 2 | 16/50·7d | |
| R4 | 1 | MYTHICAL | 16% | 11/2 | 9/2 | +1 | 3 | 62/103·7d | |
| R4 | 6 | HEN PARTY | 13% | 7/1 | 6/1 | +1 | 4 | ▲ | •1/8·6d |
| R4 | 2 | VEKOMA'S DIVA | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 5 | ▼W | •1/151·21d |
| R4 | 5 | MINUTE BY MINUTE | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | -1 | 6 | ▲ | •1/7·7d |
| R55 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R5 | 5 | FATHER RICK | 23% | 7/2 | 5/2 | 0 | 4/34·8d | ||
| R5 | 1 | INALIENABLE | 17% | 9/2 | 7/2 | 0 | W | •1/107·7d | |
| R5 | 6 | RANDEE | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 0 | 6/12·7d | ||
| R5 | 2 | GOD OF FIRE | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | 1/2·4d | ||
| R5 | 10 | GREEK GOD | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 4/22·7d | ||
| R5 | 8 | GEORGE'S PAL VINNY | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 0 | 6/29·7d | ||
| R5 | 9 | MIRACLE MICHAEL | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 3/5·11d | ||
| R5 | 3 | TOP THRILLER | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | -1 | 2 | •1/5·4d | |
| R5 | 7 | WARTOENDALLWARS | 4% | 20/1 | 20/1 | +1 | 1 | 4/47·29d | |
| R5 | 4 | NEGRIL BADNESS | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | 0 | •1/5·11d | ||
| R61 3/8 miles turfOptional claiming $55,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pace1 flag | |||||||||
| R6 | 8 | IRON SIGHT | 33% | 2/1 | 2/1 | +7 | 1 | B | 12/87·8d |
| R6 | 5 | NOBLE FACTOR | 25% | 3/1 | 3/1 | +5 | 2 | •1/4·9d | |
| R6 | 3 | MARKET TIMING | 14% | 6/1 | 4/1 | -2 | 3 | B | •1/5·8d |
| R6 | 2 | NOBLE DYNASTY | 13% | 7/1 | 7/2 | -5 | 4 | W | •1/39·16d |
| R6 | 4 | HEATHGUARD | 5% | 20/1 | 10/1 | -2 | 6 | 48/149·35d | |
| R6 | 1 | FROSTED OVER | 4% | 20/1 | 20/1 | +1 | 5 | W | •1/78·7d |
| R6 | 7 | CLEAR CONSCIENCE | 4% | 25/1 | 12/1 | -2 | 7 | 22/27·25d | |
| R6 | 6 | OMAHA STORM | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 | -2 | 8 | 2/18·8d | |
| R71 1/8 miles turfMaiden claiming $50,000Even pacepass | |||||||||
| R7 | 2 | PELICAN PRIDE | 18% | 9/2 | 7/2 | 0 | 2 | 3/23·7d | |
| R7 | 6 | MAGIC IN MY EYES | 17% | 5/1 | 6/1 | +6 | 1 | 5/33·25d | |
| R7 | 5 | CHAUMET | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 0 | 3 | 5/12·8d | |
| R7 | 11 | TWO CLICKS | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 | -1 | 4 | 8/14·25d | |
| R7 | 7 | VALIANT DIVA | 8% | 11/1 | 6/1 | -3 | 6 | 8/12·9d | |
| R7 | 8 | SKY LOW LOW | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 5 | B | 35/66·15d |
| R7 | 9 | AMICUS CURIAE | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 7 | 3/6·8d | |
| R7 | 4 | WHATTA WEEKEND | 4% | 20/1 | 12/1 | -2 | 9 | B | 23/33·7d |
| R7 | 12 | DANCING MIRACLE | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 8 | 20/34·8d | |
| R7 | 10 | THE GAEL | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 | -1 | 10 | 23/25·7d | |
| R7 | 3 | MIA SOPHIA | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | 0 | 11 | 9/16·8d | |
| R7 | 1 | ADDAGIRL ADDIE | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | 0 | 12 | B | 17/23·25d |
| R81 mile dirtClaiming $20,000Even pacepass | |||||||||
| R8 | 1 | TACTICALITY | 26% | 3/1 | 1/1 | -13 | 2 | BW | 5/54·8d |
| R8 | 9 | BRIGADIER GENERAL | 15% | 11/2 | 6/1 | +4 | 1 | 3/22·18d | |
| R8 | 8 | TOSCANO | 14% | 6/1 | 4/1 | -2 | 3 | 25/127·15d | |
| R8 | 4 | SARA'S SHAMAN | 8% | 11/1 | 10/1 | +1 | 4 | 13/28·20d | |
| R8 | 3 | MO KREESA | 7% | 12/1 | 12/1 | +1 | 5 | — | |
| R8 | 5 | RIYADH MOON | 7% | 12/1 | 15/1 | +2 | 7 | W | •1/99·15d |
| R8 | 7 | DEAR CHAIRMAN | 7% | 15/1 | 15/1 | +2 | 6 | W | 2/116·5d |
| R8 | 10 | WAR MASTER | 5% | 15/1 | 15/1 | +1 | 9 | 13/35·17d | |
| R8 | 2 | HE'S GOT THIS | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 | +2 | 8 | W | •1/27·8d |
| R8 | 6 | OUTTAWATERBURY | 4% | 20/1 | 30/1 | +2 | 10 | BW | 124/139·15d |
| R96 furlongs dirtAllowance $105,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass | |||||||||
| R9 | 2 | KING FARRO | 14% | 6/1 | 5/1 | +1 | 2 | W | •1/33·18d |
| R9 | 5 | CALLING CARD | 14% | 13/2 | 7/2 | -4 | 5 | B | 16/54·29d |
| R9 | 3 | MUSIC IN MOTION | 14% | 13/2 | 6/1 | +2 | 4 | ▲W | 4/52·15d |
| R9 | 8 | BLUE ROOF BEAU | 13% | 7/1 | 6/1 | +2 | 1 | ▼ | 9/34·8d |
| R9 | 6 | BLAMICKER | 12% | 7/1 | 6/1 | +1 | 3 | ▼ | 6/10·48d |
| R9 | 9 | VEKINDA | 11% | 8/1 | 9/2 | -3 | 6 | ▲ | 2/6·7d |
| R9 | 7 | MOZAMBIQUE | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 0 | 8 | ▲BW | 4/139·7d |
| R9 | 1 | B PROVOCATEUR | 7% | 15/1 | 8/1 | -2 | 7 | ▼BW | 2/22·7d |
| R9 | 10 | ALZERO | 5% | 20/1 | 30/1 | +2 | 9 | BW | 2/24·7d |
| R9 | 4 | LORD CHATHAM | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 10 | ▼W | 2/37·6d |
| R107 furlongs dirtGrade 1 stakesLone speed1 flag | |||||||||
| R10 | 3 | BOOKED | 28% | 5/2 | 3/1 | +8 | 1 | ▲ | 3/6·6d |
| R10 | 1 | THE GOOD LIFE | 14% | 13/2 | 7/2 | -4 | 5 | BW | 5/64·8d |
| R10 | 7 | LIFESONG | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 | 0 | 2 | W | •1/13·8d |
| R10 | 5 | MIDNIGHT STILL | 12% | 7/1 | 9/2 | -2 | 4 | W | •1/127·7d |
| R10 | 8 | MYSTRIX | 12% | 7/1 | 4/1 | -3 | 6 | W | •1/47·8d |
| R10 | 2 | HIGH OFFICIAL | 11% | 8/1 | 8/1 | +2 | 3 | 2/11·8d | |
| R10 | 4 | FLIGHT COMMAND | 7% | 15/1 | 10/1 | -1 | 7 | 2/18·3d | |
| R10 | 6 | CONSTANT FORCE | 4% | 25/1 | 15/1 | -1 | 8 | •1/9·7d | |
| R115 1/2 furlongs turfStakes, $150,000 purseEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R11 | 7 | CREDITWORTHY | 27% | 5/2 | 5/2 | +5 | 1 | W | 5/105·7d |
| R11 | 4 | DETERMINED KINGDOM | 19% | 9/2 | 5/1 | +6 | 2 | W | •1/31·8d |
| R11 | 1 | JEAN VALJEAN | 19% | 9/2 | 9/2 | +4 | 3 | B | 1/2·41d |
| R11 | 6 | HEART HEADED | 14% | 6/1 | 3/1 | -5 | 4 | 6/7·7d | |
| R11 | 8 | BITE AND STRIKE | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 | -1 | 5 | W | •1/74·7d |
| R11 | 3 | NO EVIDENCE | 5% | 20/1 | 8/1 | -4 | 6 | 3/5·12d | |
| R11 | 2 | STARS AND STRIDES | 4% | 25/1 | 12/1 | -2 | 7 | 2/18·6d | |
| R11 | 5 | BILLIONAIRES ROW | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 | -2 | 8 | W | 28/32·23d |
| R121 mile turfMaiden special weightEven pace1 flag | |||||||||
| R12 | 3 | IRISH GOODBYE | 21% | 4/1 | 9/2 | +7 | 1 | B | 3/23·7d |
| R12 | 11 | OHONTE'S OWN | 15% | 11/2 | 7/2 | -2 | 2 | 6/39·9d | |
| R12 | 9 | MAIN THING | 12% | 15/2 | 6/1 | +1 | 3 | W | 4/65·14d |
| R12 | 10 | ENGRAVED | 9% | 10/1 | 5/1 | -4 | 8 | BW | 2/43·7d |
| R12 | 2 | MY TOGO | 9% | 10/1 | 10/1 | +2 | 5 | B | •1/5·8d |
| R12 | 8 | DAISY DOO | 8% | 12/1 | 12/1 | +2 | 4 | B | 13/14·7d |
| R12 | 12 | KOTLIKOFF | 8% | 12/1 | 8/1 | -1 | 6 | 3/5·9d | |
| R12 | 7 | TANGO TANGO | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 | -1 | 7 | 30/59·10d | |
| R12 | 5 | TIZIO | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | BW | •1/16·14d | |
| R12 | 6 | TWENTY ONE RED | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 | -1 | 9 | 9/65·7d | |
| R12 | 1 | COURAGEUX | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 | 0 | 7/7·10d | ||
| R12 | 4 | NOTHINGBUTNITRO | 1% | 99/1 | 50/1 | -1 | 10 | B | 2/4·11d |
Rank is our power-figure blend, 1 is best. Why reads left to right: whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, and BLANK means we have nothing to say, so only rows with signal carry a mark. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.
Price your own ticket
The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 12 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.
The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet
R1Chalk9The Standard23%7/25/2
How it sets up
Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.
The board and our number agree in a $45,000 maiden claimer. We make the top one 23% against the board's 22%.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | THE STANDARD | 23% | 7/2 | 5/2 | 8/12·8d |
| 8 | DISPARATE IMPACT | 22% | 7/2 | 3/1 | 42/127·7d |
| 5 | POWER SPEED | 12% | 15/2 | 5/1 | 7/21·10d |
| 4 | WARNOCK | 11% | 8/1 | 9/2 | 1/3·9d |
| 1 | TORRE EIFFEL | 11% | 8/1 | 8/1 | 16/31·11d |
| 7 | NORDIC FYRE | 9% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 10/11·10d |
| 6 | CRAZY BUSTED | 6% | 15/1 | 20/1 | 22/49·28d |
| 2 | HOLDING POWER | 4% | 20/1 | 12/1 | •1/11·9d |
| 3 | ZENORO | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 10/41·9d |
R3Lean4Next On Stage19%4/17/2
How it sets up
Go forward357
Pace helps246
Four of the 7 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over six and a half furlongs on dirt in a $55,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.
Our top-rated horse in a $55,000 allowance optional claimer. Four horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 2 points.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | NEXT ON STAGE | 19% | 4/1 | 7/2 | 18/25·7d |
| 1 | ROMAN GRACE | 16% | 5/1 | 5/1 | 5/39·8d |
| 2 | STAR ACTRESS | 16% | 11/2 | 6/1 | •1/10·7d |
| 6 | STREET VIEW | 15% | 6/1 | 9/2 | 7/99·22d |
| 3 | ROMANTIC DANCER | 13% | 7/1 | 9/2 | 26/54·7d |
| 5 | WITH A KISS | 12% | 7/1 | 3/1 | •1/13·7d |
| 7 | LOVELY CHRISTINA | 9% | 10/1 | 6/1 | 50/131·7d |
R4Chalk3Mashallah33%2/17/5
How it sets up
Go forward23
Pace helps56
Four of the 6 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over six furlongs on dirt in a Grade 3 should be contested rather than soft.
The board and our number agree in a Grade 3. Four horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | MASHALLAH | 33% | 2/1 | 7/5 | 1/2·9d |
| 4 | GOODALL | 28% | 5/2 | 8/5 | 16/50·7d |
| 1 | MYTHICAL | 16% | 11/2 | 9/2 | 62/103·7d |
| 6 | HEN PARTY | 13% | 7/1 | 6/1 | •1/8·6d |
| 2 | VEKOMA'S DIVA | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | •1/151·21d |
| 5 | MINUTE BY MINUTE | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | •1/7·7d |
R5Chalk5Father Rick23%7/25/2
How it sets up
The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. A full field of ten.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | FATHER RICK | 23% | 7/2 | 5/2 | 4/34·8d |
| 1 | INALIENABLE | 17% | 9/2 | 7/2 | •1/107·7d |
| 6 | RANDEE | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 6/12·7d |
| 2 | GOD OF FIRE | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 1/2·4d |
| 10 | GREEK GOD | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 4/22·7d |
| 8 | GEORGE'S PAL VINNY | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 6/29·7d |
| 9 | MIRACLE MICHAEL | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 3/5·11d |
| 3 | TOP THRILLER | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | •1/5·4d |
| 7 | WARTOENDALLWARS | 4% | 20/1 | 20/1 | 4/47·29d |
| 4 | NEGRIL BADNESS | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | •1/5·11d |
R7Scramble2Pelican Pride18%9/27/2
How it sets up
A full field of twelve. The top two are effectively level on our numbers. We make the top one 18% against the board's 17%.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | PELICAN PRIDE | 18% | 9/2 | 7/2 | 3/23·7d |
| 6 | MAGIC IN MY EYES | 17% | 5/1 | 6/1 | 5/33·25d |
| 5 | CHAUMET | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 5/12·8d |
| 11 | TWO CLICKS | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 | 8/14·25d |
| 7 | VALIANT DIVA | 8% | 11/1 | 6/1 | 8/12·9d |
| 8 | SKY LOW LOW | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 35/66·15d |
| 9 | AMICUS CURIAE | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 3/6·8d |
| 4 | WHATTA WEEKEND | 4% | 20/1 | 12/1 | 23/33·7d |
| 12 | DANCING MIRACLE | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 20/34·8d |
| 10 | THE GAEL | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 | 23/25·7d |
| 3 | MIA SOPHIA | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | 9/16·8d |
| 1 | ADDAGIRL ADDIE | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | 17/23·25d |
R8Chalk1Tacticality26%3/11/1
How it sets up
The board and our number agree in a $20,000 claimer. A full field of ten. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field. We make the favourite, #1 TACTICALITY, 26% against the board's 39%, shorter than we think it should be. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TACTICALITY | 26% | 3/1 | 1/1 | 5/54·8d |
| 9 | BRIGADIER GENERAL | 15% | 11/2 | 6/1 | 3/22·18d |
| 8 | TOSCANO | 14% | 6/1 | 4/1 | 25/127·15d |
| 4 | SARA'S SHAMAN | 8% | 11/1 | 10/1 | 13/28·20d |
| 3 | MO KREESA | 7% | 12/1 | 12/1 | — |
| 5 | RIYADH MOON | 7% | 12/1 | 15/1 | •1/99·15d |
| 7 | DEAR CHAIRMAN | 7% | 15/1 | 15/1 | 2/116·5d |
| 10 | WAR MASTER | 5% | 15/1 | 15/1 | 13/35·17d |
| 2 | HE'S GOT THIS | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 | •1/27·8d |
| 6 | OUTTAWATERBURY | 4% | 20/1 | 30/1 | 124/139·15d |
R9Scramble2King Farro14%6/15/1
How it sets up
Go forward1468
Pace helps379
Four of the 10 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over six furlongs on dirt in an allowance should be contested rather than soft.
A full field of ten. Nothing separates the top two by more than 0.7 points. Four horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | KING FARRO | 14% | 6/1 | 5/1 | •1/33·18d |
| 5 | CALLING CARD | 14% | 13/2 | 7/2 | 16/54·29d |
| 3 | MUSIC IN MOTION | 14% | 13/2 | 6/1 | 4/52·15d |
| 8 | BLUE ROOF BEAU | 13% | 7/1 | 6/1 | 9/34·8d |
| 6 | BLAMICKER | 12% | 7/1 | 6/1 | 6/10·48d |
| 9 | VEKINDA | 11% | 8/1 | 9/2 | 2/6·7d |
| 7 | MOZAMBIQUE | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 4/139·7d |
| 1 | B PROVOCATEUR | 7% | 15/1 | 8/1 | 2/22·7d |
| 10 | ALZERO | 5% | 20/1 | 30/1 | 2/24·7d |
| 4 | LORD CHATHAM | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 2/37·6d |
R11Lean7Creditworthy27%5/25/2
How it sets up
Our top-rated horse in a starter allowance. We make the top one 27% against the board's 22%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 5 points.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | CREDITWORTHY | 27% | 5/2 | 5/2 | 5/105·7d |
| 4 | DETERMINED KINGDOM | 19% | 9/2 | 5/1 | •1/31·8d |
| 1 | JEAN VALJEAN | 19% | 9/2 | 9/2 | 1/2·41d |
| 6 | HEART HEADED | 14% | 6/1 | 3/1 | 6/7·7d |
| 8 | BITE AND STRIKE | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 | •1/74·7d |
| 3 | NO EVIDENCE | 5% | 20/1 | 8/1 | 3/5·12d |
| 2 | STARS AND STRIDES | 4% | 25/1 | 12/1 | 2/18·6d |
| 5 | BILLIONAIRES ROW | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 | 28/32·23d |
Public record53–157flags, W–L-61.3uflat-$2-14.6%flat-bet ROI, n=210-36% to +9%95% range, read this oneevery call hash-stamped before post →
We lose most single flags. That’s expected. The edge is price: when we’re right, the board paid more than fair. Our 30% picks win about 30% (see the calibration curve), and every call is graded against the closing odds, wins and losses.
No set price. On the tote you’re paid the closing odds, so the edge isn’t a line you beat early. It’s the gap between our fair number and where the crowd lands. We grade each flag against the actual close.
Our last miss: SAR R12 Griselda, flagged at 4/1, didn’t win, and it is on the record like every call.
Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 70a95150 · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 c6d97338cb84… · Scratch status checked at 12:24 PM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.
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