Del Mar, Sun Sep 6, 2026
Today’s card runs on TwinSpires as Edge Card Plays. Edge Card is an independent publication and is not a TwinSpires product; the plays and the record are the same ones published here.
New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.
No one horse is entitled to the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.
It rates third on our own win number, 3.3 points behind the top.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | CITY EXILE | 21% | 4/1 | 7/2 | 9/134·13d |
| 10 | AH JEEZ | 18% | 9/2 | 5/2 | 33/89·56d |
| 3 | LIVING LIFE ◀ | 17% | 5/1 | 6/1 | 2/2·10d |
| 13 | ZALAMO | 12% | 7/1 | 5/1 | 24/103·7d |
| 12 | RIMPROTECTOR | 6% | 15/1 | 20/1 | 16/116·7d |
| 5 | CALM SEA | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 7/91·7d |
| 2 | MALIBU COAST | 5% | 20/1 | 10/1 | •1/8·10d |
| 9 | UNCLE HAPPY | 4% | 20/1 | 12/1 | 2/95·7d |
| 11 | KEEP MOVIN' ON | 4% | 25/1 | 12/1 | 6/95·7d |
| 4 | DEALERS SPECIAL | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | 7/72·9d |
| 6 | PHOSPHORESCENCE | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | 5/111·8d |
| 1 | SMOOTH SALUTE | 1% | 50/1 | 30/1 | 34/61·7d |
Three of the 5 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over seven furlongs on dirt in a Grade 1 should be contested rather than soft.
The model’s read ▾
It rates third on our own win number, 33.1 points behind the top, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.
3 of the 5 want the front over seven furlongs on dirt, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | HUGHES | 49% | 1/1 | 4/5 | •1/64·7d |
| 5 | DOMUS | 22% | 7/2 | 7/5 | 3/41·8d |
| 1 | PHONE BOOTH ◀ | 16% | 5/1 | 8/1 | 15/19·10d |
| 2 | HIGH PRONTO | 8% | 11/1 | 10/1 | •1/35·10d |
| 3 | DANG SON | 4% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 20/138·49d |
Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.
The model’s read ▾
A price play. LADY RIDER is not likely on its own, but the board has it longer than we do, and on a horse this price that is where a payout actually lives.
It rates third on our own win number, 11.5 points behind the top.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | LADY IN PARIS | 23% | 7/2 | 2/1 | 4/5·7d |
| 11 | QUICK KATE | 15% | 6/1 | 4/1 | 16/134·31d |
| 1 | LADY RIDER ◀ | 12% | 15/2 | 12/1 | 11/80·7d |
| 2 | LUBIE'S MUSIC | 11% | 8/1 | 8/1 | 1/1·3d |
| 4 | DELIGHTFUL LAURA | 11% | 8/1 | 7/2 | •1/29·7d |
| 5 | WINK AND A GRIN | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 | 2/16·8d |
| 7 | ETERNAL REIGN | 8% | 12/1 | 15/1 | 10/64·7d |
| 8 | UPCHARGE | 5% | 15/1 | 12/1 | •1/17·7d |
| 6 | WITH LOVE | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 25/26·10d |
| 9 | UNA PALABRA | 1% | 50/1 | 30/1 | 2/4·7d |
One of the 9 looks alone on the lead, clear of the field on the early figures over a mile on turf, with nothing else in here entitled to go with it.
The model’s read ▾
It rates second on our own win number, 7.3 points behind the top, in a race where one of them looks like getting loose on the lead.
In a field of 9 it profiles as the lone speed over a mile on turf, likely alone on the lead.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | VANTA | 28% | 5/2 | 2/1 | 2/95·6d |
| 6 | LESS PLEASE ◀ | 20% | 4/1 | 5/1 | 4/32·8d |
| 9 | QUEENOFTHEWILD | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 4/52·6d |
| 2 | OGLE | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 22/65·8d |
| 5 | DEE SNOOK | 10% | 9/1 | 4/1 | 18/38·15d |
| 3 | BLOCKADE | 7% | 15/1 | 20/1 | •1/11·7d |
| 7 | VENDETTA | 6% | 15/1 | 8/1 | 2/3·7d |
| 1 | RIVER IN PARADISE | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 3/5·7d |
| 8 | CONFETTI RAIN | 4% | 25/1 | 15/1 | 6/93·24d |
- 7Mr. Machupicchufirst start on turf · bottom third of this field on turf breeding · first start in 7 months
- 2Gordon's Legacynew barn since the last start, now with Mick Ruis Sr
- 3Prime Artistblinkers on
- 6Scene By MeE Jaramillo back aboard, a winner on this horse five starts back
- 7City ExileJuan J Hernandez back aboard, a winner on this horse three starts back · claimed last time out
- 3Living Lifedrops from $50,000 to $25,000 off a 6th
- 4Dealers Specialblinkers off
- 6Phosphorescenceclaimed last time out
- 5Mesmerizewent off at 5/2 last time and finished 5th · first start on turf · first start at a mile or longer · bottom third of this field on turf breeding
- 7Chair's Coinfirst start in 6 months
- 10Apples Y Peachesfirst start on turf
- 1Pioneer Princedrops from $32,000 to $16,000 off a 5th · went off at 5/2 last time and finished 5th · claimed last time out
- 5Arkadelphiafirst start at a mile or longer · bottom third of this field on breeding for the trip
- 6Mici's Expressup from $10,000 to $16,000 off a third · claimed last time out
- 9Big Juanitoup from $8,000 to $14,000 off a second
- 9Una Palabraup from $12,500 to $50,000 off a win · first start in over a year · claimed last time out
- 4Delightful Laurafirst start in 6 months
- 7Eternal Reignwent off at 5/2 last time and finished 4th
- 3Desert Gatewent off at 6/5 last time and finished 4th
- 6Mo Kokonew barn since the last start, now with Paul Aguirre
- 7Ocean Bearfirst start at a mile or longer
6 of the 9 have never gone a mile or longer
3 of the 9 have never raced on turf
- 6Less Pleasetop third of this field on breeding for the trip · blinkers off
- 9Queenofthewildtop third of this field on breeding for the trip · new barn since the last start, now with Philip Damato
- 1River In Paradisenew barn since the last start, now with Leonard Powell
- 3Blockadebottom third of this field on turf breeding
- 4Vantatop third of this field on breeding for the trip
- and 1 more with something to note
- 9Agrowestfirst start on turf · first start at a mile or longer · bottom third of this field on turf breeding
- 7Grey's Boyfirst start at a mile or longer · bottom third of this field on breeding for the trip
- 8MuscledUmberto Rispoli back aboard, a winner on this horse five starts back
- 11Moonlit Sonatawent off at 9/5 last time and finished 7th
Facts about the race, not predictions. A class move is shown with the finish it came off so you can judge it; we do not claim any of these wins, and only the flagged win bets above are graded on the record.
The whole card every runner, our number beside the board
| R | # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Edge | Rank | Why | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R15 furlongs turfOptional claiming $50,000Contested pace likely (5 early-speed types)pass | |||||||||
| R1 | 4 | THE RABBI | 19% | 9/2 | 3/1 | -1 | 3 | ▲ | 2/11·9d |
| R1 | 6 | SCENE BY ME | 18% | 9/2 | 7/2 | +1 | 1 | ▼B | 8/27·8d |
| R1 | 10 | MILES FINCH | 15% | 6/1 | 6/1 | +3 | 2 | W | 2/89·9d |
| R1 | 1 | BROHEIM | 14% | 13/2 | 6/1 | +2 | 4 | ▲ | •1/5·9d |
| R1 | 7 | MR. MACHUPICCHU | 9% | 11/1 | 6/1 | -3 | 5 | ▼W | •1/20·4d |
| R1 | 9 | MAURY WILLS | 8% | 11/1 | 12/1 | +2 | 6 | ▲ | 8/37·8d |
| R1 | 2 | GORDON'S LEGACY | 8% | 12/1 | 6/1 | -3 | 7 | 7/23·9d | |
| R1 | 3 | PRIME ARTIST | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | -1 | 8 | •1/9·8d | |
| R1 | 8 | VICTORIA'S ROCKET | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 | +1 | 9 | ▼ | •1/6·25d |
| R1 | 5 | LUCKY AND GONE | 1% | 50/1 | 30/1 | -1 | 10 | B | 1/2·33d |
| R26 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R2 | 7 | QUATTRO PASSI | 30% | 5/2 | 2/1 | +3 | 1 | BW | 2/27·7d |
| R2 | 1 | PROSPECT OF LOVE | 23% | 7/2 | 5/2 | +1 | B | •1/6·16d | |
| R2 | 8 | ROSAURA | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 0 | W | 3/61·7d | |
| R2 | 6 | TAMMYFAYE | 9% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | W | •1/16·7d | |
| R2 | 5 | ROYAL PEARL | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | -1 | 2 | W | 5/84·8d |
| R2 | 2 | PACEMAKER | 6% | 15/1 | 8/1 | -2 | 3 | 28/35·10d | |
| R2 | 3 | AMERICAN SPIRIT | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | B | •1/4·5d | |
| R2 | 4 | CANDY FOR JEANNE | 2% | 30/1 | 30/1 | 0 | 6/7·4d | ||
| R31 1/8 miles turfClaiming $25,000Even pace1 flag | |||||||||
| R3 | 7 | CITY EXILE | 21% | 4/1 | 7/2 | +4 | 1 | W | 9/134·13d |
| R3 | 10 | AH JEEZ | 18% | 9/2 | 5/2 | -4 | 3 | 33/89·56d | |
| R3 | 3 | LIVING LIFE | 17% | 5/1 | 6/1 | +6 | 2 | B | 2/2·10d |
| R3 | 13 | ZALAMO | 12% | 7/1 | 5/1 | 0 | 4 | 24/103·7d | |
| R3 | 12 | RIMPROTECTOR | 6% | 15/1 | 20/1 | +2 | 5 | 16/116·7d | |
| R3 | 5 | CALM SEA | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 6 | W | 7/91·7d |
| R3 | 2 | MALIBU COAST | 5% | 20/1 | 10/1 | -2 | 8 | •1/8·10d | |
| R3 | 9 | UNCLE HAPPY | 4% | 20/1 | 12/1 | -2 | 7 | BW | 2/95·7d |
| R3 | 11 | KEEP MOVIN' ON | 4% | 25/1 | 12/1 | -2 | 10 | W | 6/95·7d |
| R3 | 4 | DEALERS SPECIAL | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 9 | W | 7/72·9d |
| R3 | 6 | PHOSPHORESCENCE | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | -1 | 11 | BW | 5/111·8d |
| R3 | 1 | SMOOTH SALUTE | 1% | 50/1 | 30/1 | -1 | 12 | B | 34/61·7d |
| R47 furlongs dirtGrade 1 stakesContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag | |||||||||
| R4 | 4 | HUGHES | 49% | 1/1 | 4/5 | +4 | 1 | ▼W | •1/64·7d |
| R4 | 5 | DOMUS | 22% | 7/2 | 7/5 | -12 | 3 | ▼W | 3/41·8d |
| R4 | 1 | PHONE BOOTH | 16% | 5/1 | 8/1 | +7 | 2 | ▲W | 15/19·10d |
| R4 | 2 | HIGH PRONTO | 8% | 11/1 | 10/1 | +1 | 4 | ▼W | •1/35·10d |
| R4 | 3 | DANG SON | 4% | 20/1 | 15/1 | -1 | 5 | 20/138·49d | |
| R51 1/16 miles turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R5 | 3 | PEACHY CANYON | 16% | 5/1 | 4/1 | +1 | 1 | B | 3/15·8d |
| R5 | 4 | BRAZORIA | 14% | 6/1 | 5/1 | +1 | 3 | 3/15·3d | |
| R5 | 6 | PENTLE BAY | 14% | 13/2 | 6/1 | +2 | 2 | 15/29·7d | |
| R5 | 5 | MESMERIZE | 13% | 13/2 | 6/1 | +2 | 4 | 1/1·6d | |
| R5 | 8 | GOT THE RING | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 5 | 2/11·3d | |
| R5 | 10 | APPLES Y PEACHES | 7% | 12/1 | 6/1 | -4 | 8 | 12/30·8d | |
| R5 | 7 | CHAIR'S COIN | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 | -1 | 6 | •1/8·9d | |
| R5 | 11 | PRECLUDE | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 7 | 24/58·8d | |
| R5 | 1 | BOURBON STORY | 4% | 20/1 | 12/1 | -2 | 10 | 4/37·27d | |
| R5 | 12 | GREYS OVER BAYS | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 9 | 7/45·7d | |
| R5 | 2 | I'LL BE YOUR BABY | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 3/4·26d | ||
| R61 mile dirtClaiming $16,000Contested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass | |||||||||
| R6 | 1 | PIONEER PRINCE | 25% | 3/1 | 9/5 | -3 | 1 | ▼B | 2/8·6d |
| R6 | 2 | SHADY TIGER | 18% | 9/2 | 4/1 | +2 | 2 | ▲W | 7/84·8d |
| R6 | 3 | GEOMETRY | 11% | 8/1 | 8/1 | +2 | 3 | ▼ | 20/93·22d |
| R6 | 9 | BIG JUANITO | 10% | 10/1 | 6/1 | -2 | 6 | 3/29·28d | |
| R6 | 6 | MICI'S EXPRESS | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 4 | B | 26/47·8d |
| R6 | 4 | D DAY SKY | 8% | 12/1 | 8/1 | -1 | 8 | 39/52·6d | |
| R6 | 8 | CRYPTO RIDE | 8% | 12/1 | 12/1 | +1 | 5 | ▼ | •1/6·44d |
| R6 | 7 | I'M A BAD BOY | 7% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 7 | 4/9·7d | |
| R6 | 5 | ARKADELPHIA | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | 9 | ▼B | 27/61·7d |
| R71 1/16 miles turfOptional claiming $50,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pace1 flag | |||||||||
| R7 | 10 | LADY IN PARIS | 23% | 7/2 | 2/1 | -3 | 1 | 4/5·7d | |
| R7 | 11 | QUICK KATE | 15% | 6/1 | 4/1 | -1 | 3 | 16/134·31d | |
| R7 | 1 | LADY RIDER | 12% | 15/2 | 12/1 | +6 | 2 | B | 11/80·7d |
| R7 | 2 | LUBIE'S MUSIC | 11% | 8/1 | 8/1 | +2 | 4 | 1/1·3d | |
| R7 | 4 | DELIGHTFUL LAURA | 11% | 8/1 | 7/2 | -7 | 7 | W | •1/29·7d |
| R7 | 5 | WINK AND A GRIN | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 | +1 | 5 | B | 2/16·8d |
| R7 | 7 | ETERNAL REIGN | 8% | 12/1 | 15/1 | +3 | 6 | 10/64·7d | |
| R7 | 8 | UPCHARGE | 5% | 15/1 | 12/1 | -1 | 8 | W | •1/17·7d |
| R7 | 6 | WITH LOVE | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 9 | 25/26·10d | |
| R7 | 9 | UNA PALABRA | 1% | 50/1 | 30/1 | -1 | 10 | 2/4·7d | |
| R81 mile dirtStakes, $125,000 purseContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass | |||||||||
| R8 | 3 | DESERT GATE | 26% | 3/1 | 9/5 | -2 | 1 | ▼B | •1/4·8d |
| R8 | 5 | DECISIVE WIN | 18% | 9/2 | 3/1 | -2 | 2 | ▼ | 14/34·10d |
| R8 | 8 | AHRENS | 12% | 15/2 | 7/2 | -6 | 5 | ▼W | 3/41·8d |
| R8 | 7 | OCEAN BEAR | 11% | 8/1 | 12/1 | +5 | 3 | BW | 4/95·7d |
| R8 | 2 | START THE RIDE | 10% | 9/1 | 12/1 | +4 | 6 | ▲BW | 5/61·7d |
| R8 | 4 | ESSOS | 10% | 10/1 | 5/1 | -4 | 8 | ▲W | •1/61·7d |
| R8 | 1 | ONE MORE FREUD | 9% | 10/1 | 12/1 | +3 | 4 | W | 6/64·7d |
| R8 | 6 | MO KOKO | 6% | 15/1 | 20/1 | +2 | 7 | W | •1/64·15d |
| R91 mile turfStakes, $100,000 purseLone speed1 flag | |||||||||
| R9 | 4 | VANTA | 28% | 5/2 | 2/1 | +1 | 1 | BW | 2/95·6d |
| R9 | 6 | LESS PLEASE | 20% | 4/1 | 5/1 | +7 | 2 | 4/32·8d | |
| R9 | 9 | QUEENOFTHEWILD | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | W | 4/52·6d | |
| R9 | 2 | OGLE | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | -1 | 3 | 22/65·8d | |
| R9 | 5 | DEE SNOOK | 10% | 9/1 | 4/1 | -6 | 5 | 18/38·15d | |
| R9 | 3 | BLOCKADE | 7% | 15/1 | 20/1 | +3 | 4 | ▲BW | •1/11·7d |
| R9 | 7 | VENDETTA | 6% | 15/1 | 8/1 | -3 | 6 | 2/3·7d | |
| R9 | 1 | RIVER IN PARADISE | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 3/5·7d | ||
| R9 | 8 | CONFETTI RAIN | 4% | 25/1 | 15/1 | -1 | 7 | 6/93·24d | |
| R105 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R10 | 8 | NASHVILLE CHAMP | 23% | 7/2 | 5/2 | 0 | 3/11·10d | ||
| R10 | 7 | GOLDEN CLUB | 20% | 4/1 | 3/1 | 0 | 1 | 8/42·7d | |
| R10 | 1 | STUDY SESSION | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | W | •1/18·7d | |
| R10 | 2 | MORNING GLASS | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 3/14·10d | ||
| R10 | 6 | HALO HOWIE | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 0 | •1/7·7d | ||
| R10 | 5 | REAL REAL | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 0 | 2/9·7d | ||
| R10 | 9 | SMOKEM THIRSTY | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 5/18·11d | ||
| R10 | 3 | UNLEASHED AMBITION | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 3/5·8d | ||
| R10 | 4 | PROUD DANIEL | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | W | 9/134·21d | |
| R10 | 10 | TEHAMA | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 20/30·7d | ||
| R111 1/8 miles turfOptional claiming $50,000Even pacepass | |||||||||
| R11 | 11 | MOONLIT SONATA | 14% | 6/1 | 5/1 | +1 | 1 | 20/41·8d | |
| R11 | 8 | MUSCLED | 14% | 6/1 | 4/1 | -2 | 2 | 12/18·10d | |
| R11 | 5 | ROSTOVSKY | 12% | 15/2 | 8/1 | +3 | 4 | 14/87·7d | |
| R11 | 4 | MAXIMON | 11% | 8/1 | 5/1 | -2 | 6 | W | •1/19·7d |
| R11 | 6 | OTTIS BETTS | 11% | 8/1 | 12/1 | +5 | 3 | 1/2·7d | |
| R11 | 3 | BACK NINE STAKES | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | -1 | 5 | W | 3/58·8d |
| R11 | 12 | LORENZO BERNINI | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 7 | W | 2/26·7d |
| R11 | 7 | GREY'S BOY | 6% | 15/1 | 10/1 | -1 | 9 | BW | 5/95·4d |
| R11 | 1 | FLAMBOYANT | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | -1 | 8 | 7/33·22d | |
| R11 | 2 | NO POKING AROUND | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | -1 | 10 | 36/41·8d | |
| R11 | 10 | DREAMRIDER | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 11 | 13/31·7d | |
| R11 | 9 | AGROWEST | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | -1 | 12 | 2/2·9d | |
Rank is our power-figure blend, 1 is best. Why reads left to right: whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, and BLANK means we have nothing to say, so only rows with signal carry a mark. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.
Price your own ticket
The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 11 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.
Five of the 10 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five furlongs on turf in a $50,000 optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | THE RABBI | 19% | 9/2 | 3/1 | 2/11·9d |
| 6 | SCENE BY ME | 18% | 9/2 | 7/2 | 8/27·8d |
| 10 | MILES FINCH | 15% | 6/1 | 6/1 | 2/89·9d |
| 1 | BROHEIM | 14% | 13/2 | 6/1 | •1/5·9d |
| 7 | MR. MACHUPICCHU | 9% | 11/1 | 6/1 | •1/20·4d |
| 9 | MAURY WILLS | 8% | 11/1 | 12/1 | 8/37·8d |
| 2 | GORDON'S LEGACY | 8% | 12/1 | 6/1 | 7/23·9d |
| 3 | PRIME ARTIST | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | •1/9·8d |
| 8 | VICTORIA'S ROCKET | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 | •1/6·25d |
| 5 | LUCKY AND GONE | 1% | 50/1 | 30/1 | 1/2·33d |
Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | QUATTRO PASSI | 30% | 5/2 | 2/1 | 2/27·7d |
| 1 | PROSPECT OF LOVE | 23% | 7/2 | 5/2 | •1/6·16d |
| 8 | ROSAURA | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 3/61·7d |
| 6 | TAMMYFAYE | 9% | 11/1 | 8/1 | •1/16·7d |
| 5 | ROYAL PEARL | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 5/84·8d |
| 2 | PACEMAKER | 6% | 15/1 | 8/1 | 28/35·10d |
| 3 | AMERICAN SPIRIT | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | •1/4·5d |
| 4 | CANDY FOR JEANNE | 2% | 30/1 | 30/1 | 6/7·4d |
No runner here is entitled to the lead on the early figures. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | PEACHY CANYON | 16% | 5/1 | 4/1 | 3/15·8d |
| 4 | BRAZORIA | 14% | 6/1 | 5/1 | 3/15·3d |
| 6 | PENTLE BAY | 14% | 13/2 | 6/1 | 15/29·7d |
| 5 | MESMERIZE | 13% | 13/2 | 6/1 | 1/1·6d |
| 8 | GOT THE RING | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 2/11·3d |
| 10 | APPLES Y PEACHES | 7% | 12/1 | 6/1 | 12/30·8d |
| 7 | CHAIR'S COIN | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 | •1/8·9d |
| 11 | PRECLUDE | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 24/58·8d |
| 1 | BOURBON STORY | 4% | 20/1 | 12/1 | 4/37·27d |
| 12 | GREYS OVER BAYS | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 7/45·7d |
| 2 | I'LL BE YOUR BABY | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 3/4·26d |
Four of the 9 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile on dirt in a $16,000 claimer should be contested rather than soft.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIONEER PRINCE | 25% | 3/1 | 9/5 | 2/8·6d |
| 2 | SHADY TIGER | 18% | 9/2 | 4/1 | 7/84·8d |
| 3 | GEOMETRY | 11% | 8/1 | 8/1 | 20/93·22d |
| 9 | BIG JUANITO | 10% | 10/1 | 6/1 | 3/29·28d |
| 6 | MICI'S EXPRESS | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 26/47·8d |
| 4 | D DAY SKY | 8% | 12/1 | 8/1 | 39/52·6d |
| 8 | CRYPTO RIDE | 8% | 12/1 | 12/1 | •1/6·44d |
| 7 | I'M A BAD BOY | 7% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 4/9·7d |
| 5 | ARKADELPHIA | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 27/61·7d |
Three of the 8 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile on dirt in a starter allowance should be contested rather than soft.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | DESERT GATE | 26% | 3/1 | 9/5 | •1/4·8d |
| 5 | DECISIVE WIN | 18% | 9/2 | 3/1 | 14/34·10d |
| 8 | AHRENS | 12% | 15/2 | 7/2 | 3/41·8d |
| 7 | OCEAN BEAR | 11% | 8/1 | 12/1 | 4/95·7d |
| 2 | START THE RIDE | 10% | 9/1 | 12/1 | 5/61·7d |
| 4 | ESSOS | 10% | 10/1 | 5/1 | •1/61·7d |
| 1 | ONE MORE FREUD | 9% | 10/1 | 12/1 | 6/64·7d |
| 6 | MO KOKO | 6% | 15/1 | 20/1 | •1/64·15d |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | NASHVILLE CHAMP | 23% | 7/2 | 5/2 | 3/11·10d |
| 7 | GOLDEN CLUB | 20% | 4/1 | 3/1 | 8/42·7d |
| 1 | STUDY SESSION | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | •1/18·7d |
| 2 | MORNING GLASS | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 3/14·10d |
| 6 | HALO HOWIE | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | •1/7·7d |
| 5 | REAL REAL | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 2/9·7d |
| 9 | SMOKEM THIRSTY | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 5/18·11d |
| 3 | UNLEASHED AMBITION | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 3/5·8d |
| 4 | PROUD DANIEL | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 9/134·21d |
| 10 | TEHAMA | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 20/30·7d |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | MOONLIT SONATA | 14% | 6/1 | 5/1 | 20/41·8d |
| 8 | MUSCLED | 14% | 6/1 | 4/1 | 12/18·10d |
| 5 | ROSTOVSKY | 12% | 15/2 | 8/1 | 14/87·7d |
| 4 | MAXIMON | 11% | 8/1 | 5/1 | •1/19·7d |
| 6 | OTTIS BETTS | 11% | 8/1 | 12/1 | 1/2·7d |
| 3 | BACK NINE STAKES | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 3/58·8d |
| 12 | LORENZO BERNINI | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 2/26·7d |
| 7 | GREY'S BOY | 6% | 15/1 | 10/1 | 5/95·4d |
| 1 | FLAMBOYANT | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | 7/33·22d |
| 2 | NO POKING AROUND | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | 36/41·8d |
| 10 | DREAMRIDER | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 13/31·7d |
| 9 | AGROWEST | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | 2/2·9d |
We lose most single flags. That’s expected. The edge is price: when we’re right, the board paid more than fair. Our 30% picks win about 30% (see the calibration curve), and every call is graded against the closing odds, wins and losses.
No set price. On the tote you’re paid the closing odds, so the edge isn’t a line you beat early. It’s the gap between our fair number and where the crowd lands. We grade each flag against the actual close.
Our last miss: SAR R12 Griselda, flagged at 4/1, didn’t win, and it is on the record like every call.
Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 70a95150 · takeout (DMR) win 15.43% / exacta 22.68% · card SHA-256 b427b5c76548… · Scratch status has not yet been confirmed. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.
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