Saratoga, Sat Sep 5, 2026
Today’s card runs on TwinSpires as Edge Card Plays. Edge Card is an independent publication and is not a TwinSpires product; the plays and the record are the same ones published here.
New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.
No one horse is entitled to the lead. Nothing in here has shown real early speed on the figures the model reads.
The model’s read ▾
HIGHLANDS WAY is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.
It tops our own win number, 3.3 points clear of the next one, in a race nobody is clearly entitled to lead.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | HIGHLANDS WAY ◀ | 34% | 2/1 | 9/5 | 50/62·7d |
| 7 | FAVORABLE SCENARIO | 30% | 5/2 | 8/5 | 14/66·7d |
| 5 | THIRTEEN COLONIES | 11% | 15/2 | 5/1 | 1/1·13d |
| 2 | FUNNY FACTOR | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 33/131·7d |
| 6 | SHIRL'S SOUL TOWN | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 | 2/20·13d |
| 1 | BLOWN COVER | 6% | 15/1 | 8/1 | 5/24·9d |
| 3 | ARDAGH RED | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | 2/8·7d |
Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Nothing in here has shown real early speed on the figures the model reads.
The model’s read ▾
RELATED PARTY is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.
It tops our own win number, 13.0 points clear of the next one, in a race nobody is clearly entitled to lead.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | RELATED PARTY ◀ | 31% | 5/2 | 5/2 | 13/18·6d |
| 3 | ARTEMIS TWO | 18% | 9/2 | 7/2 | •1/50·7d |
| 6 | STOCK RISING | 13% | 7/1 | 5/1 | 8/14·7d |
| 8 | CHRISTOPHER WOOL | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 3/4·8d |
| 11 | RENEGADE SPIRIT | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 2/6·7d |
| 10 | FRAMER | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 9/13·6d |
| 9 | LITHOS | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 5/12·6d |
| 1 | PASS ON BY | 4% | 20/1 | 8/1 | 2/6·15d |
| 7 | RAPIDLY ROYAL | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | 1/2·8d |
| 2 | KATZ IN THE CRADLE | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | •1/29·6d |
| 4 | VINTAGE VELOCITY | 1% | 50/1 | 20/1 | •1/11·3d |
Four of the 9 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five and a half furlongs on turf in an allowance should be contested rather than soft.
The model’s read ▾
This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.
It tops our own win number, 5.6 points clear of the next one, and with 4 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.
4 of the 9 want the front over five and a half furlongs on turf, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ANYWAY ◀ | 20% | 4/1 | 6/1 | 28/115·13d |
| 5 | MONEY MAKES MONEY | 15% | 11/2 | 5/1 | 12/15·6d |
| 8 | BRIGHTLINE BULLET | 13% | 13/2 | 7/2 | •1/4·9d |
| 3 | ORTLEY AVENUE | 10% | 9/1 | 3/1 | 2/6·14d |
| 9 | AFTER TAXES | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 | 9/34·7d |
| 2 | GRUNGE | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 3/24·9d |
| 7 | GLOBAL ASSET | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | •1/7·8d |
| 6 | VIRTUOSITY | 7% | 12/1 | 12/1 | •1/17·7d |
| 4 | IMAGINE JOHN | 7% | 12/1 | 15/1 | 1/3·6d |
No runner here is entitled to the lead on the early figures. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.
It rates second on our own win number, 7.0 points behind the top.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | ORI | 30% | 5/2 | 9/5 | 10/49·6d |
| 7 | GRISELDA ◀ | 23% | 7/2 | 4/1 | 26/55·7d |
| 1 | SALT PRINCESS | 9% | 11/1 | 12/1 | 103/151·14d |
| 11 | LOTUS PETAL | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 107/127·6d |
| 4 | SARATOGA SNOW | 7% | 12/1 | 5/1 | 3/5·25d |
| 9 | RACING COLORS | 6% | 15/1 | 30/1 | 8/18·14d |
| 2 | HIDDEN PRESENCE | 5% | 20/1 | 10/1 | 83/89·7d |
| 5 | SWEET DUTCHESS | 5% | 20/1 | 8/1 | 3/9·14d |
| 6 | BERTRILLE | 5% | 20/1 | 10/1 | 4/33·31d |
| 10 | Y'ALLREADYFORTHIS | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | — |
| 8 | HAUNTRESS | 1% | 99/1 | 50/1 | 11/18·3d |
- 5Perfect DreamC Sutherland is here for this one ride, the first of the meet
- 3Ardagh Redfirst start on turf · first start in over a year
- 6Shirl's Soul Townfirst start at a mile or longer · top third of this field on breeding for the trip
- 1Blown CoverRuben Silvera back aboard, a winner on this horse three starts back
- 7Favorable Scenarioblinkers on
- 8Antonio Of Venicewent off at 7/5 last time and finished 4th · Ruben Silvera back aboard, a winner on this horse three starts back
- 1Factually Correctclaimed last time out
- 3Bold Fortunefirst start in over a year
- 7B Thedonaldwent off at 1/1 last time and finished 4th
- 1Wynstockclaimed last time out
- 6Kineticclaimed last time out
- 1Pass On Byfirst start on turf · first start at a mile or longer · top third of this field on turf breeding
- 2Katz In The Cradlefirst start on turf · first start at a mile or longer
- 7Global Assetfirst start under a mile · top third of this field on breeding for the trip · first start in 10 months · new barn since the last start, now with Philip Antonacci
- 1Anywayfirst start on turf · top third of this field on turf breeding
- 4Imagine Johnfirst start on turf · bottom third of this field on turf breeding
- 2Grungeblinkers on
- 3Courtingfirst-time Lasix
- 3Cha Cha BabyMychel J Sanchez is here for this one ride, the first of the meet · new barn since the last start, now with Robert E Reid Jr
- 2Hidden Presencenew barn since the last start, now with Orlando Noda
- 5Sweet Dutchessfirst start in over a year
- 6Bertrillenew barn since the last start, now with Lolita Shivmangal
- 7Griseldawent off at 9/5 last time and finished 7th
- 8Hauntressup from $20,000 to $45,000 off an 11th
- and 1 more with something to note
Facts about the race, not predictions. A class move is shown with the finish it came off so you can judge it; we do not claim any of these wins, and only the flagged win bets above are graded on the record.
The whole card every runner, our number beside the board
| R | # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Edge | Rank | Why | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R17 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R1 | 2 | MYSTRIX | 17% | 5/1 | 4/1 | +2 | 1 | W | •1/47·7d |
| R1 | 4 | U. S. S. VALOR | 16% | 5/1 | 5/2 | -6 | 3 | BW | •1/50·7d |
| R1 | 8 | IMPLIED OPEN | 16% | 11/2 | 5/1 | +3 | 2 | B | 4/7·7d |
| R1 | 9 | BELZONI | 12% | 7/1 | 6/1 | +1 | 4 | •1/5·8d | |
| R1 | 5 | TAP OUR WAY | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 4/30·7d | ||
| R1 | 1 | MYSTIK BAYOU | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 2/13·7d | ||
| R1 | 10 | SPENCER'S ANGEL | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 0 | •1/6·9d | ||
| R1 | 3 | LIVID | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | W | •1/64·8d | |
| R1 | 6 | GOLD ON BLACK | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 5 | 2/13·5d | |
| R1 | 7 | CREDIT | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 20/28·7d | ||
| R21 1/16 miles turfGrade 3 stakesEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R2 | 3 | HIGH OFFICIAL | 36% | 9/5 | 7/5 | +3 | 1 | 2/11·7d | |
| R2 | 4 | BOLD LEADERSHIP | 27% | 5/2 | 8/5 | -3 | 2 | W | 8/120·7d |
| R2 | 2 | LIAM'S LAW | 18% | 9/2 | 5/2 | -4 | 4 | 44/62·7d | |
| R2 | 1 | HOWARD'S HOPE | 13% | 13/2 | 8/1 | +5 | 3 | B | 18/31·8d |
| R2 | 5 | PERFECT DREAM | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 5 | B | 8/23·6d |
| R31 1/16 miles turfAllowance $120,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pace1 flag | |||||||||
| R3 | 4 | HIGHLANDS WAY | 34% | 2/1 | 9/5 | +6 | 1 | W | 50/62·7d |
| R3 | 7 | FAVORABLE SCENARIO | 30% | 5/2 | 8/5 | 0 | 2 | B | 14/66·7d |
| R3 | 5 | THIRTEEN COLONIES | 11% | 15/2 | 5/1 | -2 | 3 | 1/1·13d | |
| R3 | 2 | FUNNY FACTOR | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 4 | 33/131·7d | |
| R3 | 6 | SHIRL'S SOUL TOWN | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 | -1 | 5 | BW | 2/20·13d |
| R3 | 1 | BLOWN COVER | 6% | 15/1 | 8/1 | -2 | 6 | 5/24·9d | |
| R3 | 3 | ARDAGH RED | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | -1 | 7 | B | 2/8·7d |
| R46 1/2 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $45,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass | |||||||||
| R4 | 3 | BOLD FORTUNE | 16% | 5/1 | 5/1 | +3 | 2 | ▼ | •1/8·7d |
| R4 | 5 | PARTY IN THE ARMY | 16% | 11/2 | 9/2 | +2 | 1 | ▼B | 8/65·7d |
| R4 | 7 | B THEDONALD | 16% | 11/2 | 7/2 | -2 | 3 | ▲ | 9/31·6d |
| R4 | 6 | TEN CENT TOWN | 14% | 6/1 | 4/1 | -2 | 4 | BW | 9/107·7d |
| R4 | 4 | THREE B'S | 10% | 9/1 | 5/1 | -3 | 6 | 16/54·7d | |
| R4 | 8 | ANTONIO OF VENICE | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 | +1 | 5 | 4/10·10d | |
| R4 | 1 | FACTUALLY CORRECT | 7% | 15/1 | 12/1 | +1 | 7 | ▼ | 12/39·22d |
| R4 | 9 | ON THE HILL | 6% | 15/1 | 10/1 | -1 | 9 | ▲B | 6/9·9d |
| R4 | 2 | STEWIE | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | 8 | ▼B | 6/31·41d |
| R57 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R5 | 10 | NAUGHTY NANCY | 19% | 4/1 | 3/1 | 0 | •1/9·6d | ||
| R5 | 8 | SECRET WISH | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 0 | W | •1/40·6d | |
| R5 | 6 | AERIAL AFFAIR | 14% | 6/1 | 9/2 | 0 | 1 | B | 1/2·10d |
| R5 | 5 | RUM TWIST | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 | -1 | 3 | B | 8/64·8d |
| R5 | 9 | FLIGHTRESS | 10% | 10/1 | 10/1 | +2 | 2 | •1/6·7d | |
| R5 | 2 | JOY OF LIFE | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 4 | 4/27·8d | |
| R5 | 1 | CHRISTOPHER VEDDER | 9% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 5 | B | 19/93·7d |
| R5 | 4 | HELP A GIRL OUT | 7% | 15/1 | 10/1 | 0 | 6 | 10/62·7d | |
| R5 | 3 | GET MY GOOD SIDE | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 44/115·7d | ||
| R5 | 7 | STEFANIA | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 | -2 | 7 | W | •1/45·7d |
| R61 mile dirtOptional claiming $110,000Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass | |||||||||
| R6 | 4 | DOC SULLIVAN | 22% | 7/2 | 3/1 | +3 | 1 | ▲B | 2/2·7d |
| R6 | 5 | REASONED ANALYSIS | 20% | 4/1 | 5/2 | -2 | 2 | 26/111·7d | |
| R6 | 1 | WYNSTOCK | 14% | 6/1 | 9/2 | 0 | 4 | ▲ | 7/23·7d |
| R6 | 3 | TUSCAN SKY | 14% | 6/1 | 7/2 | -3 | 3 | 14/62·7d | |
| R6 | 7 | DONEGAL SURGES | 11% | 8/1 | 8/1 | +3 | 5 | ▲ | 24/29·7d |
| R6 | 6 | KINETIC | 7% | 12/1 | 12/1 | +1 | 6 | BW | •1/59·9d |
| R6 | 2 | URBAN PLANNER | 7% | 15/1 | 10/1 | 0 | 7 | 3/5·5d | |
| R6 | 8 | OTELLO | 4% | 20/1 | 15/1 | -1 | 8 | ▼B | 8/39·6d |
| R77 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R7 | 3 | TRUE ESSENCE | 19% | 9/2 | 3/1 | -1 | 1 | BW | 3/30·6d |
| R7 | 9 | PHAROCITY | 17% | 5/1 | 7/2 | 0 | W | •1/22·6d | |
| R7 | 6 | ELECTRO | 14% | 6/1 | 9/2 | 0 | W | •1/64·8d | |
| R7 | 5 | POPS NOVO | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | 4/9·6d | ||
| R7 | 8 | JACKPOT ROCKET | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 | +1 | 2 | 2/5·8d | |
| R7 | 4 | MISCHIEF TIME | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 3/7·6d | ||
| R7 | 7 | CHAMPAGNE COAST | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 3/19·5d | ||
| R7 | 2 | FLOYD THE BARBER | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | W | 3/30·6d | |
| R7 | 1 | FREE LEGAL ADVICE | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | 4/10·6d | ||
| R7 | 10 | D. C.'S ARMY | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | W | 2/35·7d | |
| R81 1/16 miles turfMaiden special weightEven pace1 flag | |||||||||
| R8 | 5 | RELATED PARTY | 31% | 5/2 | 5/2 | +8 | 1 | B | 13/18·6d |
| R8 | 3 | ARTEMIS TWO | 18% | 9/2 | 7/2 | 0 | BW | •1/50·7d | |
| R8 | 6 | STOCK RISING | 13% | 7/1 | 5/1 | 0 | 8/14·7d | ||
| R8 | 8 | CHRISTOPHER WOOL | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | -1 | B | 3/4·8d | |
| R8 | 11 | RENEGADE SPIRIT | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 0 | B | 2/6·7d | |
| R8 | 10 | FRAMER | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | 9/13·6d | ||
| R8 | 9 | LITHOS | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | 5/12·6d | ||
| R8 | 1 | PASS ON BY | 4% | 20/1 | 8/1 | -4 | 2 | 2/6·15d | |
| R8 | 7 | RAPIDLY ROYAL | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | 0 | B | 1/2·8d | |
| R8 | 2 | KATZ IN THE CRADLE | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | -1 | 3 | W | •1/29·6d |
| R8 | 4 | VINTAGE VELOCITY | 1% | 50/1 | 20/1 | -2 | 4 | W | •1/11·3d |
| R95 1/2 furlongs turfAllowance $120,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)1 flag | |||||||||
| R9 | 1 | ANYWAY | 20% | 4/1 | 6/1 | +9 | 1 | ▲ | 28/115·13d |
| R9 | 5 | MONEY MAKES MONEY | 15% | 11/2 | 5/1 | +2 | 2 | ▲ | 12/15·6d |
| R9 | 8 | BRIGHTLINE BULLET | 13% | 13/2 | 7/2 | -4 | 4 | •1/4·9d | |
| R9 | 3 | ORTLEY AVENUE | 10% | 9/1 | 3/1 | -9 | 8 | ▼ | 2/6·14d |
| R9 | 9 | AFTER TAXES | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 | -2 | 5 | B | 9/34·7d |
| R9 | 2 | GRUNGE | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | +1 | 3 | ▼ | 3/24·9d |
| R9 | 7 | GLOBAL ASSET | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 9 | ▲B | •1/7·8d |
| R9 | 6 | VIRTUOSITY | 7% | 12/1 | 12/1 | +1 | 7 | W | •1/17·7d |
| R9 | 4 | IMAGINE JOHN | 7% | 12/1 | 15/1 | +2 | 6 | B | 1/3·6d |
| R101 1/8 miles dirtAllowance $120,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (6 early-speed types)pass | |||||||||
| R10 | 5 | PRESIDE | 13% | 7/1 | 3/1 | -7 | 4 | 3/4·6d | |
| R10 | 7 | IRON DOME | 12% | 7/1 | 6/1 | +1 | 1 | 5/19·6d | |
| R10 | 4 | LION OF JUSTICE | 12% | 15/2 | 9/2 | -2 | 6 | ▲B | 11/16·6d |
| R10 | 8 | ANNEXPERIENCE | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 | +2 | 3 | ▲ | 9/34·7d |
| R10 | 3 | COURTING | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 | -1 | 5 | W | •1/39·7d |
| R10 | 9 | UNIVERSE | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 | +1 | 2 | W | •1/33·8d |
| R10 | 2 | PAPA YO | 8% | 11/1 | 10/1 | +1 | 9 | ▲ | 2/10·7d |
| R10 | 1 | DISCOTHEQUE | 7% | 15/1 | 15/1 | +2 | 8 | 7/15·55d | |
| R10 | 10 | GULFY | 6% | 15/1 | 15/1 | +1 | 7 | ▼B | •1/6·7d |
| R10 | 6 | HOP SING | 6% | 15/1 | 15/1 | +1 | 10 | ▼BW | 6/111·10d |
| R10 | 11 | COMMERCE | 6% | 15/1 | 15/1 | +1 | 11 | W | •1/19·8d |
| R117 furlongs dirtGrade 1 stakesContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass | |||||||||
| R11 | 8 | LIFE CHANGING | 18% | 9/2 | 5/2 | -4 | 1 | ▼W | •1/120·7d |
| R11 | 2 | SUMMER STARLET | 17% | 5/1 | 2/1 | -9 | 6 | ▲ | 3/23·6d |
| R11 | 4 | STRESS RELIEF | 15% | 6/1 | 8/1 | +6 | 3 | ▲ | 13/18·7d |
| R11 | 5 | GIRVY GIRL | 14% | 13/2 | 8/1 | +5 | 2 | ▼W | 6/127·6d |
| R11 | 6 | HARPER'S CORNER | 13% | 7/1 | 5/1 | 0 | 4 | ▼W | •1/27·8d |
| R11 | 7 | ANGEL OF KIRK | 12% | 7/1 | 9/2 | -2 | 5 | ▼B | 3/6·7d |
| R11 | 3 | CHA CHA BABY | 6% | 15/1 | 15/1 | +2 | 7 | ▼ | 2/8·7d |
| R11 | 1 | BANDMASTER | 5% | 20/1 | 30/1 | +2 | 8 | ▲BW | •1/93·7d |
| R121 1/16 miles turfOptional claiming $45,000Even pace1 flag | |||||||||
| R12 | 3 | ORI | 30% | 5/2 | 9/5 | +2 | 1 | B | 10/49·6d |
| R12 | 7 | GRISELDA | 23% | 7/2 | 4/1 | +7 | 2 | B | 26/55·7d |
| R12 | 1 | SALT PRINCESS | 9% | 11/1 | 12/1 | +3 | 3 | 103/151·14d | |
| R12 | 11 | LOTUS PETAL | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 4 | W | 107/127·6d |
| R12 | 4 | SARATOGA SNOW | 7% | 12/1 | 5/1 | -6 | 6 | 3/5·25d | |
| R12 | 9 | RACING COLORS | 6% | 15/1 | 30/1 | +3 | 5 | B | 8/18·14d |
| R12 | 2 | HIDDEN PRESENCE | 5% | 20/1 | 10/1 | -2 | 7 | W | 83/89·7d |
| R12 | 5 | SWEET DUTCHESS | 5% | 20/1 | 8/1 | -4 | 9 | 3/9·14d | |
| R12 | 6 | BERTRILLE | 5% | 20/1 | 10/1 | -2 | 8 | B | 4/33·31d |
| R12 | 10 | Y'ALLREADYFORTHIS | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | -1 | 10 | — | |
| R12 | 8 | HAUNTRESS | 1% | 99/1 | 50/1 | 0 | 11 | 11/18·3d | |
Rank is our power-figure blend, 1 is best. Why reads left to right: whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, and BLANK means we have nothing to say, so only rows with signal carry a mark. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.
Price your own ticket
The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 12 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | MYSTRIX | 17% | 5/1 | 4/1 | •1/47·7d |
| 4 | U. S. S. VALOR | 16% | 5/1 | 5/2 | •1/50·7d |
| 8 | IMPLIED OPEN | 16% | 11/2 | 5/1 | 4/7·7d |
| 9 | BELZONI | 12% | 7/1 | 6/1 | •1/5·8d |
| 5 | TAP OUR WAY | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 4/30·7d |
| 1 | MYSTIK BAYOU | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 2/13·7d |
| 10 | SPENCER'S ANGEL | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | •1/6·9d |
| 3 | LIVID | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | •1/64·8d |
| 6 | GOLD ON BLACK | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 2/13·5d |
| 7 | CREDIT | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 20/28·7d |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | HIGH OFFICIAL | 36% | 9/5 | 7/5 | 2/11·7d |
| 4 | BOLD LEADERSHIP | 27% | 5/2 | 8/5 | 8/120·7d |
| 2 | LIAM'S LAW | 18% | 9/2 | 5/2 | 44/62·7d |
| 1 | HOWARD'S HOPE | 13% | 13/2 | 8/1 | 18/31·8d |
| 5 | PERFECT DREAM | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 8/23·6d |
Four of the 9 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over six and a half furlongs on dirt in a $45,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | BOLD FORTUNE | 16% | 5/1 | 5/1 | •1/8·7d |
| 5 | PARTY IN THE ARMY | 16% | 11/2 | 9/2 | 8/65·7d |
| 7 | B THEDONALD | 16% | 11/2 | 7/2 | 9/31·6d |
| 6 | TEN CENT TOWN | 14% | 6/1 | 4/1 | 9/107·7d |
| 4 | THREE B'S | 10% | 9/1 | 5/1 | 16/54·7d |
| 8 | ANTONIO OF VENICE | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 | 4/10·10d |
| 1 | FACTUALLY CORRECT | 7% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 12/39·22d |
| 9 | ON THE HILL | 6% | 15/1 | 10/1 | 6/9·9d |
| 2 | STEWIE | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 6/31·41d |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | NAUGHTY NANCY | 19% | 4/1 | 3/1 | •1/9·6d |
| 8 | SECRET WISH | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 | •1/40·6d |
| 6 | AERIAL AFFAIR | 14% | 6/1 | 9/2 | 1/2·10d |
| 5 | RUM TWIST | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 | 8/64·8d |
| 9 | FLIGHTRESS | 10% | 10/1 | 10/1 | •1/6·7d |
| 2 | JOY OF LIFE | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 4/27·8d |
| 1 | CHRISTOPHER VEDDER | 9% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 19/93·7d |
| 4 | HELP A GIRL OUT | 7% | 15/1 | 10/1 | 10/62·7d |
| 3 | GET MY GOOD SIDE | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 44/115·7d |
| 7 | STEFANIA | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 | •1/45·7d |
Three of the 8 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile on dirt in a $110,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | DOC SULLIVAN | 22% | 7/2 | 3/1 | 2/2·7d |
| 5 | REASONED ANALYSIS | 20% | 4/1 | 5/2 | 26/111·7d |
| 1 | WYNSTOCK | 14% | 6/1 | 9/2 | 7/23·7d |
| 3 | TUSCAN SKY | 14% | 6/1 | 7/2 | 14/62·7d |
| 7 | DONEGAL SURGES | 11% | 8/1 | 8/1 | 24/29·7d |
| 6 | KINETIC | 7% | 12/1 | 12/1 | •1/59·9d |
| 2 | URBAN PLANNER | 7% | 15/1 | 10/1 | 3/5·5d |
| 8 | OTELLO | 4% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 8/39·6d |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | TRUE ESSENCE | 19% | 9/2 | 3/1 | 3/30·6d |
| 9 | PHAROCITY | 17% | 5/1 | 7/2 | •1/22·6d |
| 6 | ELECTRO | 14% | 6/1 | 9/2 | •1/64·8d |
| 5 | POPS NOVO | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 4/9·6d |
| 8 | JACKPOT ROCKET | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 | 2/5·8d |
| 4 | MISCHIEF TIME | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 3/7·6d |
| 7 | CHAMPAGNE COAST | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 3/19·5d |
| 2 | FLOYD THE BARBER | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 3/30·6d |
| 1 | FREE LEGAL ADVICE | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 4/10·6d |
| 10 | D. C.'S ARMY | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 2/35·7d |
Six of the 11 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile and an eighth on dirt in an allowance should be contested rather than soft.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | PRESIDE | 13% | 7/1 | 3/1 | 3/4·6d |
| 7 | IRON DOME | 12% | 7/1 | 6/1 | 5/19·6d |
| 4 | LION OF JUSTICE | 12% | 15/2 | 9/2 | 11/16·6d |
| 8 | ANNEXPERIENCE | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 | 9/34·7d |
| 3 | COURTING | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 | •1/39·7d |
| 9 | UNIVERSE | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 | •1/33·8d |
| 2 | PAPA YO | 8% | 11/1 | 10/1 | 2/10·7d |
| 1 | DISCOTHEQUE | 7% | 15/1 | 15/1 | 7/15·55d |
| 10 | GULFY | 6% | 15/1 | 15/1 | •1/6·7d |
| 6 | HOP SING | 6% | 15/1 | 15/1 | 6/111·10d |
| 11 | COMMERCE | 6% | 15/1 | 15/1 | •1/19·8d |
Three of the 8 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over seven furlongs on dirt in a Grade 1 should be contested rather than soft.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | LIFE CHANGING | 18% | 9/2 | 5/2 | •1/120·7d |
| 2 | SUMMER STARLET | 17% | 5/1 | 2/1 | 3/23·6d |
| 4 | STRESS RELIEF | 15% | 6/1 | 8/1 | 13/18·7d |
| 5 | GIRVY GIRL | 14% | 13/2 | 8/1 | 6/127·6d |
| 6 | HARPER'S CORNER | 13% | 7/1 | 5/1 | •1/27·8d |
| 7 | ANGEL OF KIRK | 12% | 7/1 | 9/2 | 3/6·7d |
| 3 | CHA CHA BABY | 6% | 15/1 | 15/1 | 2/8·7d |
| 1 | BANDMASTER | 5% | 20/1 | 30/1 | •1/93·7d |
We lose most single flags. That’s expected. The edge is price: when we’re right, the board paid more than fair. Our 30% picks win about 30% (see the calibration curve), and every call is graded against the closing odds, wins and losses.
No set price. On the tote you’re paid the closing odds, so the edge isn’t a line you beat early. It’s the gap between our fair number and where the crowd lands. We grade each flag against the actual close.
Our last miss: SAR R10 She Takes Cash, flagged at 8/1, didn’t win, and it is on the record like every call.
Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 70a95150 · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 7896543fb1e9… · Scratch status checked at 12:56 PM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.
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