Saratoga, Fri Sep 4, 2026
11 races · published 12:01 PM ET · card locked
4 value plays today · 7 races we're passing
Edge of the Day
5BALIAGE
Race 4 · 1 1/16 miles turf
43%model7/5fair5/2boardWINpaid at the close
Our biggest edge on the card today (+21 pts over the board), the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number, so size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.
Today at SaratogaMostly Sunny, 82°F, wind 7 mph · rain 2%, no off-track flagNWS forecast
Also on TwinSpires
Bet these plays at TwinSpiresToday’s card runs on TwinSpires as Edge Card Plays. Edge Card is an independent publication and is not a TwinSpires product; the plays and the record are the same ones published here.
Flags 4 of 11 races
New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.
Today’s plays4 flags
RaceHorseModelBoardEdge
R37Run Classic11%12/1+5 ptsR45Baliage43%5/2+21 ptsR88Ice Chocolat17%8/1+8 ptsR102She Takes Cash14%8/1+5 ptsFlagShare
7RUN CLASSIC
Model
Fair
Board
11%
15/2
12/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup. Barn angle weak here
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Go forward5
Pace helps369
Three of the 9 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over six furlongs on dirt in a $45,000 optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.
The model’s read ▾
A price play. RUN CLASSIC is not likely on its own, but the board has it longer than we do, and on a horse this price that is where a payout actually lives.
It rates fifth on our own win number, 8.8 points behind the top, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.
3 of the 9 want the front over six furlongs on dirt, so the early fractions should be honest.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | COMMUTED | 20% | 4/1 | 9/5 | •1/59·8d |
| 1 | BABY YODA | 15% | 11/2 | 3/1 | 2/12·14d |
| 4 | SOUPER TUSCAN | 15% | 11/2 | 7/2 | 3/127·5d |
| 3 | SHOOT THE NICKEL | 12% | 15/2 | 8/1 | 18/87·49d |
| 7 | RUN CLASSIC ◀ | 11% | 15/2 | 12/1 | 3/18·5d |
| 5 | MISCHIEVOUS M | 8% | 11/1 | 10/1 | 15/87·31d |
| 2 | INEXORABLE | 8% | 12/1 | 15/1 | 4/52·6d |
| 9 | TRUST ISSUES | 7% | 15/1 | 15/1 | 4/31·29d |
| 8 | PAIR OF SOCKS | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 8/37·12d |
FlagShare
5BALIAGE
Model
Fair
Board
43%
7/5
5/2
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
Likely bet down A short board price for this track, and prices this short more often shorten by post than not. Still a win play, but expect a smaller number than the board shows, because pari-mutuel pays the close. Size it smaller.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Barn angle strong here
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
No one horse is entitled to the lead. Nothing in here has shown real early speed on the figures the model reads.
The model’s read ▾
This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.
It tops our own win number, 20.2 points clear of the next one, in a race nobody is clearly entitled to lead.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | BALIAGE ◀ | 43% | 7/5 | 5/2 | 24/27·7d |
| 1 | PROS AND CONS | 23% | 7/2 | 2/1 | 2/48·7d |
| 3 | UP BEFORE THE DAWN | 12% | 15/2 | 7/2 | 5/31·3d |
| 2 | GLYCOGEN | 9% | 10/1 | 5/1 | 46/96·13d |
| 7 | MEL WENT HOME | 8% | 12/1 | 6/1 | 6/118·5d |
| 4 | BOOMESHERANG | 3% | 30/1 | 10/1 | •1/11·7d |
| 6 | URGENT CLAIRE | 2% | 50/1 | 20/1 | 7/10·9d |
FlagShare
8ICE CHOCOLAT
Model
Fair
Board
17%
5/1
8/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.
Ranks #2 in our power figure blend. Barn angle strong here
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.
It rates second on our own win number, 5.4 points behind the top.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BOSUN | 22% | 7/2 | 7/2 | 2/3·5d |
| 8 | ICE CHOCOLAT ◀ | 17% | 5/1 | 8/1 | 46/149·33d |
| 7 | VETTRIANO | 13% | 13/2 | 8/1 | 3/31·29d |
| 3 | FINAL VERDICT | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 | 6/6·7d |
| 5 | NO EVIDENCE | 10% | 9/1 | 9/2 | 3/5·10d |
| 6 | SPICED UP | 9% | 11/1 | 5/1 | 1/2·7d |
| 10 | RUN CURTIS RUN | 8% | 12/1 | 6/1 | 16/107·20d |
| 4 | BOLTAGE | 6% | 15/1 | 10/1 | 1/3·7d |
| 9 | VACATION DANCE | 3% | 30/1 | 12/1 | 30/31·57d |
| 1 | WHAT'S UP BRO | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 | 2/24·13d |
FlagShare
2SHE TAKES CASH
Model
Fair
Board
14%
13/2
8/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.
Ranks #2 in our power figure blend.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.
It rates second on our own win number, 6.9 points behind the top.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | BRYANT AND COOPER | 21% | 4/1 | 5/2 | 24/62·8d |
| 2 | SHE TAKES CASH ◀ | 14% | 13/2 | 8/1 | 13/105·10d |
| 11 | ARTISTIC SUCCESS | 13% | 7/1 | 10/1 | 13/25·6d |
| 5 | FIVE DOZEN ROSES | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 | 16/43·29d |
| 7 | GALLEGA | 9% | 10/1 | 6/1 | 17/127·5d |
| 4 | STARLIGHT DANCER | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 16/30·5d |
| 1 | ROAGNA | 8% | 12/1 | 6/1 | 2/5·15d |
| 10 | ATHENA'S FURY | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | 15/16·9d |
| 12 | INTOTHEWILDERNESS | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 4/27·11d |
| 9 | ON A SUMMER DAY | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 | 12/37·8d |
| 3 | QUICK POWER NAP | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | •1/17·19d |
| 8 | MISS AMERICAN PIE | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | 14/19·13d |
What to know about each race today
R11 1/16 miles turfMaiden special weight
- 5Bashfullyblinkers on
- 8Charlotte's Beachfirst start at a mile or longer
R26 furlongs dirtMaiden special weight
- 2Okay Anniefirst start on dirt · top third of this field on dirt breeding
- 3Allegro Brillantblinkers on
R36 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $45,000
4 of the 9 were claimed last time out
- 1Baby Yodafirst start in 7 months · Flavien Prat back aboard, a winner on this horse four starts back
R41 1/16 miles turfStakes, $200,000 purse
- 4Boomesherangfirst start on turf · first start at a mile or longer · new barn since the last start, now with George Weaver
- 6Urgent Clairefirst start on turf · bottom third of this field on turf breeding
R61 mile dirtClaiming $20,000, non-winners of two lifetime
- 10Shangrala Roadwent off at 2/1 last time and finished 7th · claimed last time out · blinkers on
- 2Swiss Army Knifedrops from $45,000 to $20,000 off a 5th
- 7Daiquiri Sommelierdrops from $55,000 to $20,000 off a 6th
- 9Paul's Recoveryclaimed last time out
R76 furlongs dirtStakes, $200,000 purse
- 2Prime Aurorablinkers off
R85 1/2 furlongs turfOptional claiming $80,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starter
- 8Ice Chocolatup from $50,000 to $80,000 off a second · claimed last time out
- 1What's Up Broup from $45,000 to $80,000 off a second
- 7Vettrianofirst start on turf
- 10Run Curtis Runclaimed last time out
R96 furlongs dirtClaiming $20,000, non-winners of two lifetime
4 of the 11 were claimed last time out
- 8Tralee Girlfirst start on dirt · bottom third of this field on dirt breeding · first start in 11 months · new barn since the last start, now with Linda Rice
- 6Big Heleonorafirst start in 12 months · first-time Lasix
- 10Lexi's Melodydrops from $50,000 to $20,000 off a 7th · blinkers on
- 2Ishkabibblenew barn since the last start, now with Emron Ibrahim
- 3Warm Up The Busdrops from $50,000 to $20,000 off a 5th
- and 2 more with something to note
R101 1/16 miles turfStarter allowance, $50,000 level
- 5Five Dozen Rosesfirst start at a mile or longer · top third of this field on breeding for the trip
- 6Bryant And CooperManuel Franco back aboard, a winner on this horse three starts back
- 11Artistic Successclaimed last time out
- 12Intothewildernessnew barn since the last start, now with Lolita Shivmangal
R111 3/16 miles turfOptional claiming $55,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starter
- 1Gumclaimed last time out
- 4Seat At The TableRicardo Santana Jr back aboard, a winner on this horse two starts back
- 8Celestial Expressblinkers on
Facts about the race, not predictions. A class move is shown with the finish it came off so you can judge it; we do not claim any of these wins, and only the flagged win bets above are graded on the record.
The whole card every runner, our number beside the board
| R | # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Edge | Rank | Why | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R11 1/16 miles turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R1 | 7 | DOMESTIC AGENDA | 20% | 4/1 | 3/1 | 0 | 18/48·6d | ||
| R1 | 5 | BASHFULLY | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 0 | 1 | 26/87·7d | |
| R1 | 3 | FLAMENCO | 14% | 6/1 | 9/2 | 0 | 2/10·6d | ||
| R1 | 4 | SHARED SERVICES | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 | 0 | 7/9·7d | ||
| R1 | 1 | QUEEN PAOLA | 11% | 15/2 | 6/1 | 0 | W | •1/28·13d | |
| R1 | 2 | MAY DECEMBER | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 2 | 2/19·7d | |
| R1 | 6 | LA PATRONNE | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 3/6·7d | ||
| R1 | 8 | CHARLOTTE'S BEACH | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 3 | W | 2/41·9d |
| R26 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R2 | 9 | PROMISE ME AMELODY | 24% | 3/1 | 6/5 | -12 | 2 | B | 3/17·9d |
| R2 | 2 | OKAY ANNIE | 15% | 11/2 | 6/1 | +4 | 1 | 1/3·6d | |
| R2 | 6 | SPARKS WILL FLY | 15% | 6/1 | 9/2 | 0 | B | 3/16·4d | |
| R2 | 7 | CARMEN AMALIA | 13% | 7/1 | 6/1 | +2 | 3 | B | 16/24·7d |
| R2 | 5 | A LITTLE PRESLEY | 8% | 11/1 | 15/1 | +3 | 4 | B | 8/69·26d |
| R2 | 1 | GALWAY GURL | 8% | 11/1 | 12/1 | +2 | 5 | 2/17·9d | |
| R2 | 4 | LADY VORTEX | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | W | •1/52·6d | |
| R2 | 3 | ALLEGRO BRILLANT | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 7 | 3/13·6d | |
| R2 | 8 | MIDNIGHT HONOR | 6% | 15/1 | 15/1 | +1 | 6 | 7/16·7d | |
| R36 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $45,000Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag | |||||||||
| R3 | 6 | COMMUTED | 20% | 4/1 | 9/5 | -8 | 3 | ▲W | •1/59·8d |
| R3 | 1 | BABY YODA | 15% | 11/2 | 3/1 | -4 | 2 | 2/12·14d | |
| R3 | 4 | SOUPER TUSCAN | 15% | 11/2 | 7/2 | -3 | 4 | BW | 3/127·5d |
| R3 | 3 | SHOOT THE NICKEL | 12% | 15/2 | 8/1 | +3 | 5 | ▲ | 18/87·49d |
| R3 | 7 | RUN CLASSIC | 11% | 15/2 | 12/1 | +5 | 1 | B | 3/18·5d |
| R3 | 5 | MISCHIEVOUS M | 8% | 11/1 | 10/1 | +1 | 6 | ▼ | 15/87·31d |
| R3 | 2 | INEXORABLE | 8% | 12/1 | 15/1 | +3 | 7 | W | 4/52·6d |
| R3 | 9 | TRUST ISSUES | 7% | 15/1 | 15/1 | +2 | 8 | ▲B | 4/31·29d |
| R3 | 8 | PAIR OF SOCKS | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 9 | 8/37·12d | |
| R41 1/16 miles turfStakes, $200,000 purseEven pace1 flag | |||||||||
| R4 | 5 | BALIAGE | 43% | 7/5 | 5/2 | +21 | 1 | B | 24/27·7d |
| R4 | 1 | PROS AND CONS | 23% | 7/2 | 2/1 | -3 | 2 | W | 2/48·7d |
| R4 | 3 | UP BEFORE THE DAWN | 12% | 15/2 | 7/2 | -5 | 3 | 5/31·3d | |
| R4 | 2 | GLYCOGEN | 9% | 10/1 | 5/1 | -4 | 5 | 46/96·13d | |
| R4 | 7 | MEL WENT HOME | 8% | 12/1 | 6/1 | -3 | 4 | BW | 6/118·5d |
| R4 | 4 | BOOMESHERANG | 3% | 30/1 | 10/1 | -4 | 6 | W | •1/11·7d |
| R4 | 6 | URGENT CLAIRE | 2% | 50/1 | 20/1 | -2 | 7 | B | 7/10·9d |
| R55 1/2 furlongs turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R5 | 4 | TIGER LINE | 17% | 9/2 | 7/2 | 0 | W | 4/102·12d | |
| R5 | 1 | JUDYSDANCIN TONITE | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 0 | 15/40·6d | ||
| R5 | 10 | NIGHT SKY | 15% | 11/2 | 9/2 | +1 | 1 | B | 2/23·27d |
| R5 | 8 | CARPET CITY | 12% | 15/2 | 5/1 | -1 | 2 | W | •1/24·8d |
| R5 | 9 | FORECHECK | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | 17/32·10d | ||
| R5 | 3 | SILVER JACKPOT | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | B | 2/12·12d | |
| R5 | 7 | SITTING ON A WIN | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 0 | W | 4/149·6d | |
| R5 | 5 | MASS CONFUSION | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | W | 4/127·7d | |
| R5 | 2 | ROAD TO PURFECTION | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | •1/5·7d | ||
| R5 | 6 | KWAN | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | 0 | 4/8·7d | ||
| R61 mile dirtClaiming $20,000, non-winners of two lifetimeContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass | |||||||||
| R6 | 9 | PAUL'S RECOVERY | 15% | 11/2 | 7/2 | -3 | 4 | ▼BW | 6/114·12d |
| R6 | 2 | SWISS ARMY KNIFE | 14% | 6/1 | 3/1 | -5 | 2 | ▼ | •1/21·60d |
| R6 | 10 | SHANGRALA ROAD | 13% | 7/1 | 6/1 | +2 | 1 | 6/20·6d | |
| R6 | 6 | MIKE'S MAGIC | 12% | 15/2 | 9/2 | -3 | 3 | ▼W | •1/24·6d |
| R6 | 7 | DAIQUIRI SOMMELIER | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 8 | ▼ | 16/26·13d |
| R6 | 5 | WHITBY | 8% | 11/1 | 10/1 | +1 | 5 | ▼ | 68/102·19d |
| R6 | 4 | CORVUS | 8% | 12/1 | 8/1 | -1 | 9 | ▼W | 20/20·13d |
| R6 | 3 | BIG BROOKLYN | 8% | 12/1 | 15/1 | +3 | 7 | 2/3·8d | |
| R6 | 8 | HUTCHINSON | 7% | 12/1 | 15/1 | +2 | 6 | ▼ | 7/17·48d |
| R6 | 1 | MAGNUM'S MACROBRST | 7% | 15/1 | 20/1 | +3 | 10 | ▲B | 95/115·12d |
| R76 furlongs dirtStakes, $200,000 purseEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R7 | 5 | VELORA | 38% | 8/5 | 6/5 | +3 | 1 | W | •1/120·8d |
| R7 | 2 | PRIME AURORA | 19% | 4/1 | 7/2 | +2 | 2 | B | •1/28·41d |
| R7 | 6 | B YUTIFUL CARLY | 14% | 6/1 | 5/2 | -8 | 3 | 11/89·6d | |
| R7 | 3 | SAINT DYMPHNA | 8% | 12/1 | 12/1 | +2 | 4 | W | •1/23·7d |
| R7 | 7 | TIARA | 8% | 12/1 | 10/1 | +1 | 6 | B | 5/41·7d |
| R7 | 4 | YOU ARE MY SUZIE Q | 7% | 15/1 | 15/1 | +2 | 5 | 4/16·9d | |
| R7 | 1 | CACHORRITA | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 7 | •1/7·12d | |
| R85 1/2 furlongs turfOptional claiming $80,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pace1 flag | |||||||||
| R8 | 2 | BOSUN | 22% | 7/2 | 7/2 | +5 | 1 | 2/3·5d | |
| R8 | 8 | ICE CHOCOLAT | 17% | 5/1 | 8/1 | +8 | 2 | B | 46/149·33d |
| R8 | 7 | VETTRIANO | 13% | 13/2 | 8/1 | +5 | 3 | B | 3/31·29d |
| R8 | 3 | FINAL VERDICT | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 | -1 | 4 | 6/6·7d | |
| R8 | 5 | NO EVIDENCE | 10% | 9/1 | 9/2 | -5 | 5 | 3/5·10d | |
| R8 | 6 | SPICED UP | 9% | 11/1 | 5/1 | -4 | 6 | 1/2·7d | |
| R8 | 10 | RUN CURTIS RUN | 8% | 12/1 | 6/1 | -3 | 7 | 16/107·20d | |
| R8 | 4 | BOLTAGE | 6% | 15/1 | 10/1 | -1 | 8 | 1/3·7d | |
| R8 | 9 | VACATION DANCE | 3% | 30/1 | 12/1 | -3 | 10 | W | 30/31·57d |
| R8 | 1 | WHAT'S UP BRO | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 | 0 | 9 | BW | 2/24·13d |
| R96 furlongs dirtClaiming $20,000, non-winners of two lifetimeContested pace likely (5 early-speed types)pass | |||||||||
| R9 | 5 | HEAVEN'S BOLT | 20% | 4/1 | 3/1 | +1 | 1 | B | 3/8·8d |
| R9 | 7 | SUNSHINE LILY | 11% | 8/1 | 5/1 | -2 | 3 | B | 58/105·6d |
| R9 | 3 | WARM UP THE BUS | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | 6 | ▲W | 6/8·56d |
| R9 | 10 | LEXI'S MELODY | 10% | 9/1 | 10/1 | +3 | 5 | ▲W | 14/18·6d |
| R9 | 1 | MADELINE'S PROMISE | 10% | 9/1 | 5/1 | -3 | 4 | ▼ | 2/4·6d |
| R9 | 4 | BABCIE | 9% | 10/1 | 12/1 | +3 | 2 | ▼ | 20/55·29d |
| R9 | 8 | TRALEE GIRL | 8% | 11/1 | 6/1 | -3 | 9 | B | 9/37·11d |
| R9 | 11 | ADMIRAL SOL | 6% | 15/1 | 15/1 | +2 | 8 | — | |
| R9 | 9 | ST. BRIGID'S CROSS | 6% | 15/1 | 20/1 | +2 | 7 | ▼W | •1/52·11d |
| R9 | 6 | BIG HELEONORA | 5% | 20/1 | 8/1 | -3 | 10 | ▼ | 4/22·5d |
| R9 | 2 | ISHKABIBBLE | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 | +1 | 11 | ▲W | 4/93·6d |
| R101 1/16 miles turfStarter allowance, $50,000 levelEven pace1 flag | |||||||||
| R10 | 6 | BRYANT AND COOPER | 21% | 4/1 | 5/2 | -2 | 1 | B | 24/62·8d |
| R10 | 2 | SHE TAKES CASH | 14% | 13/2 | 8/1 | +5 | 2 | 13/105·10d | |
| R10 | 11 | ARTISTIC SUCCESS | 13% | 7/1 | 10/1 | +6 | 3 | 13/25·6d | |
| R10 | 5 | FIVE DOZEN ROSES | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 | +1 | 4 | B | 16/43·29d |
| R10 | 7 | GALLEGA | 9% | 10/1 | 6/1 | -2 | 6 | B | 17/127·5d |
| R10 | 4 | STARLIGHT DANCER | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 5 | 16/30·5d | |
| R10 | 1 | ROAGNA | 8% | 12/1 | 6/1 | -3 | 7 | B | 2/5·15d |
| R10 | 10 | ATHENA'S FURY | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | -1 | 9 | 15/16·9d | |
| R10 | 12 | INTOTHEWILDERNESS | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | 8 | B | 4/27·11d |
| R10 | 9 | ON A SUMMER DAY | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 | -2 | 11 | B | 12/37·8d |
| R10 | 3 | QUICK POWER NAP | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | -1 | 10 | W | •1/17·19d |
| R10 | 8 | MISS AMERICAN PIE | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | 0 | 12 | 14/19·13d | |
| R111 3/16 miles turfOptional claiming $55,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R11 | 6 | NONNA LYNNE | 21% | 7/2 | 3/1 | +2 | 1 | 24/62·8d | |
| R11 | 7 | CONSENSUS VIEW | 17% | 5/1 | 7/2 | 0 | 3 | 23/32·6d | |
| R11 | 4 | SEAT AT THE TABLE | 15% | 11/2 | 6/1 | +4 | 2 | BW | 2/61·6d |
| R11 | 5 | DIVIDEND RECAP | 15% | 6/1 | 4/1 | -1 | 4 | 3/3·10d | |
| R11 | 10 | LADY FIREFOOT | 9% | 10/1 | 10/1 | +2 | 5 | B | 2/4·7d |
| R11 | 3 | PRIME CONNECTION | 7% | 12/1 | 6/1 | -4 | 8 | 4/46·46d | |
| R11 | 1 | GUM | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 6 | B | 9/11·6d |
| R11 | 9 | TRAIL OF GOLD | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | -1 | 7 | BW | 56/74·28d |
| R11 | 2 | SO DARN PRETTY | 2% | 50/1 | 15/1 | -3 | 9 | BW | •1/21·21d |
| R11 | 8 | CELESTIAL EXPRESS | 1% | 99/1 | 50/1 | -1 | 10 | BW | 12/16·50d |
Rank is our power-figure blend, 1 is best. Why reads left to right: whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, and BLANK means we have nothing to say, so only rows with signal carry a mark. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.
Price your own ticket
The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 11 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.
The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet
R1Chalk7Domestic Agenda20%4/13/1
How it sets up
No runner here is entitled to the lead on the early figures. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.
The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 20% against the board's 20%.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | DOMESTIC AGENDA | 20% | 4/1 | 3/1 | 18/48·6d |
| 5 | BASHFULLY | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 26/87·7d |
| 3 | FLAMENCO | 14% | 6/1 | 9/2 | 2/10·6d |
| 4 | SHARED SERVICES | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 | 7/9·7d |
| 1 | QUEEN PAOLA | 11% | 15/2 | 6/1 | •1/28·13d |
| 2 | MAY DECEMBER | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 2/19·7d |
| 6 | LA PATRONNE | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 3/6·7d |
| 8 | CHARLOTTE'S BEACH | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 2/41·9d |
R2Chalk9Promise Me Amelody24%3/16/5
How it sets up
The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. Nothing in the price worth taking. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field. We make the favourite, #9 PROMISE ME AMELODY, 24% against the board's 36%, shorter than we think it should be. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | PROMISE ME AMELODY | 24% | 3/1 | 6/5 | 3/17·9d |
| 2 | OKAY ANNIE | 15% | 11/2 | 6/1 | 1/3·6d |
| 6 | SPARKS WILL FLY | 15% | 6/1 | 9/2 | 3/16·4d |
| 7 | CARMEN AMALIA | 13% | 7/1 | 6/1 | 16/24·7d |
| 5 | A LITTLE PRESLEY | 8% | 11/1 | 15/1 | 8/69·26d |
| 1 | GALWAY GURL | 8% | 11/1 | 12/1 | 2/17·9d |
| 4 | LADY VORTEX | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | •1/52·6d |
| 3 | ALLEGRO BRILLANT | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 3/13·6d |
| 8 | MIDNIGHT HONOR | 6% | 15/1 | 15/1 | 7/16·7d |
R5Scramble4Tiger Line17%9/27/2
How it sets up
A full field of ten. Nothing separates the top two by more than 1.6 points. We make the top one 17% against the board's 17%.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | TIGER LINE | 17% | 9/2 | 7/2 | 4/102·12d |
| 1 | JUDYSDANCIN TONITE | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 15/40·6d |
| 10 | NIGHT SKY | 15% | 11/2 | 9/2 | 2/23·27d |
| 8 | CARPET CITY | 12% | 15/2 | 5/1 | •1/24·8d |
| 9 | FORECHECK | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 17/32·10d |
| 3 | SILVER JACKPOT | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 2/12·12d |
| 7 | SITTING ON A WIN | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 4/149·6d |
| 5 | MASS CONFUSION | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 4/127·7d |
| 2 | ROAD TO PURFECTION | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | •1/5·7d |
| 6 | KWAN | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | 4/8·7d |
R6Scramble9Paul's Recovery15%11/27/2
How it sets up
Go forward2456789
Pace helps1
Three of the 10 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile on dirt in a $20,000 claimer should be contested rather than soft.
A full field of ten. The top two are effectively level on our numbers. Three of them want the lead. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | PAUL'S RECOVERY | 15% | 11/2 | 7/2 | 6/114·12d |
| 2 | SWISS ARMY KNIFE | 14% | 6/1 | 3/1 | •1/21·60d |
| 10 | SHANGRALA ROAD | 13% | 7/1 | 6/1 | 6/20·6d |
| 6 | MIKE'S MAGIC | 12% | 15/2 | 9/2 | •1/24·6d |
| 7 | DAIQUIRI SOMMELIER | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 16/26·13d |
| 5 | WHITBY | 8% | 11/1 | 10/1 | 68/102·19d |
| 4 | CORVUS | 8% | 12/1 | 8/1 | 20/20·13d |
| 3 | BIG BROOKLYN | 8% | 12/1 | 15/1 | 2/3·8d |
| 8 | HUTCHINSON | 7% | 12/1 | 15/1 | 7/17·48d |
| 1 | MAGNUM'S MACROBRST | 7% | 15/1 | 20/1 | 95/115·12d |
R7Lean5Velora38%8/56/5
How it sets up
Our top-rated horse in a starter allowance. We make the top one 38% against the board's 36%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | VELORA | 38% | 8/5 | 6/5 | •1/120·8d |
| 2 | PRIME AURORA | 19% | 4/1 | 7/2 | •1/28·41d |
| 6 | B YUTIFUL CARLY | 14% | 6/1 | 5/2 | 11/89·6d |
| 3 | SAINT DYMPHNA | 8% | 12/1 | 12/1 | •1/23·7d |
| 7 | TIARA | 8% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 5/41·7d |
| 4 | YOU ARE MY SUZIE Q | 7% | 15/1 | 15/1 | 4/16·9d |
| 1 | CACHORRITA | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | •1/7·12d |
R9Chalk5Heaven's Bolt20%4/13/1
How it sets up
Go forward1469
Pace helps2310
Five of the 11 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over six furlongs on dirt in a $20,000 claimer should be contested rather than soft.
The board and our number agree in a $20,000 claimer. Five horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | HEAVEN'S BOLT | 20% | 4/1 | 3/1 | 3/8·8d |
| 7 | SUNSHINE LILY | 11% | 8/1 | 5/1 | 58/105·6d |
| 3 | WARM UP THE BUS | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 6/8·56d |
| 10 | LEXI'S MELODY | 10% | 9/1 | 10/1 | 14/18·6d |
| 1 | MADELINE'S PROMISE | 10% | 9/1 | 5/1 | 2/4·6d |
| 4 | BABCIE | 9% | 10/1 | 12/1 | 20/55·29d |
| 8 | TRALEE GIRL | 8% | 11/1 | 6/1 | 9/37·11d |
| 11 | ADMIRAL SOL | 6% | 15/1 | 15/1 | — |
| 9 | ST. BRIGID'S CROSS | 6% | 15/1 | 20/1 | •1/52·11d |
| 6 | BIG HELEONORA | 5% | 20/1 | 8/1 | 4/22·5d |
| 2 | ISHKABIBBLE | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 | 4/93·6d |
R11Chalk6Nonna Lynne21%7/23/1
How it sets up
The board and our number agree in a $55,000 allowance optional claimer. A full field of ten.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | NONNA LYNNE | 21% | 7/2 | 3/1 | 24/62·8d |
| 7 | CONSENSUS VIEW | 17% | 5/1 | 7/2 | 23/32·6d |
| 4 | SEAT AT THE TABLE | 15% | 11/2 | 6/1 | 2/61·6d |
| 5 | DIVIDEND RECAP | 15% | 6/1 | 4/1 | 3/3·10d |
| 10 | LADY FIREFOOT | 9% | 10/1 | 10/1 | 2/4·7d |
| 3 | PRIME CONNECTION | 7% | 12/1 | 6/1 | 4/46·46d |
| 1 | GUM | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 9/11·6d |
| 9 | TRAIL OF GOLD | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | 56/74·28d |
| 2 | SO DARN PRETTY | 2% | 50/1 | 15/1 | •1/21·21d |
| 8 | CELESTIAL EXPRESS | 1% | 99/1 | 50/1 | 12/16·50d |
Public record52–145flags, W–L-39.3uflat-$2-10.0%flat-bet ROI, n=197-33% to +15%95% range, read this oneevery call hash-stamped before post →
We lose most single flags. That’s expected. The edge is price: when we’re right, the board paid more than fair. Our 30% picks win about 30% (see the calibration curve), and every call is graded against the closing odds, wins and losses.
No set price. On the tote you’re paid the closing odds, so the edge isn’t a line you beat early. It’s the gap between our fair number and where the crowd lands. We grade each flag against the actual close.
Our last miss: SAR R10 Beau Cheval, flagged at 8/1, didn’t win, and it is on the record like every call.
Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 70a95150 · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 03846f865dce… · Scratch status checked at 12:01 PM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.
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