Saratoga, Thu Sep 3, 2026
Today’s card runs on TwinSpires as Edge Card Plays. Edge Card is an independent publication and is not a TwinSpires product; the plays and the record are the same ones published here.
New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.
Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.
It rates second on our own win number, 3.3 points behind the top.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | TROCA | 18% | 9/2 | 7/2 | 4/30·6d |
| 3 | BLACKJACK ◀ | 15% | 6/1 | 10/1 | •1/75·12d |
| 1 | RUFUS THE RED | 13% | 7/1 | 9/2 | •1/39·13d |
| 8 | CRYPTO KING | 11% | 8/1 | 3/1 | •1/16·4d |
| 9 | SLICKBACK | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 3/5·10d |
| 6 | BE IN MONTY'S MIND | 9% | 11/1 | 8/1 | •1/12·5d |
| 5 | BARDEN | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | •1/107·5d |
| 7 | BORAGO | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 10/21·6d |
| 10 | KNEE HIGH | 7% | 15/1 | 15/1 | 3/51·8d |
| 2 | HYPERBOREAN SPIRIT | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | •1/5·10d |
Three of the 11 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile and an eighth on turf in an allowance should be contested rather than soft.
The model’s read ▾
It rates second on our own win number, 0.7 points behind the top, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.
3 of the 11 want the front over a mile and an eighth on turf, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | FACTORY SETTING | 23% | 7/2 | 7/2 | 20/64·6d |
| 9 | SILLY SEASON ◀ | 22% | 7/2 | 4/1 | 35/66·7d |
| 11 | CHARLOTTESUNIVERSE | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 6/99·12d |
| 4 | CONSIDERATE CITY | 15% | 11/2 | 9/2 | 4/6·4d |
| 7 | LIVIN THE BREEZE | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 4/5·11d |
| 3 | BRITAIN | 4% | 20/1 | 12/1 | 3/6·28d |
| 1 | BOOMINGTON | 4% | 25/1 | 10/1 | 3/22·25d |
| 6 | TONGUE TWISTER | 3% | 30/1 | 10/1 | 3/6·44d |
| 10 | ROSEBERNS DREAM | 1% | 99/1 | 30/1 | 8/16·11d |
| 5 | DIPTIQUE | 1% | 99/1 | 50/1 | 4/6·27d |
| 2 | SERENA FLY | 1% | 99/1 | 50/1 | •1/4·14d |
No one horse is entitled to the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.
It rates third on our own win number, 4.0 points behind the top.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | SALAMIS | 18% | 9/2 | 4/1 | 7/16·7d |
| 3 | PASS THE HAT | 14% | 6/1 | 5/2 | •1/39·6d |
| 1 | FORT WASHINGTON ◀ | 14% | 6/1 | 10/1 | 4/57·4d |
| 7 | RISK TOLERANCE | 13% | 7/1 | 8/1 | 2/3·7d |
| 5 | RUNNING BEE | 12% | 7/1 | 9/2 | 9/70·5d |
| 8 | TAKING CANDY | 10% | 9/1 | 5/1 | •1/15·6d |
| 2 | KUPUNA | 10% | 9/1 | 5/1 | 2/62·7d |
| 6 | UNCLE'S GOLD | 9% | 10/1 | 12/1 | •1/6·4d |
Five of the 12 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile and a sixteenth on turf in a $50,000 maiden claimer should be contested rather than soft.
The model’s read ▾
It rates third on our own win number, 7.4 points behind the top, and with 5 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.
5 of the 12 want the front over a mile and a sixteenth on turf, so the early fractions should be honest.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | GILBANE | 21% | 7/2 | 3/1 | 10/16·7d |
| 9 | BEFORE THE WIND | 15% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 6/6·6d |
| 8 | BEAU CHEVAL ◀ | 14% | 6/1 | 8/1 | 1/2·6d |
| 4 | FIVEDOLLARSFORSOX | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 | 3/4·10d |
| 12 | OSIRIS LAW | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 | 25/36·8d |
| 1 | MO CURLS | 6% | 15/1 | 10/1 | 2/9·8d |
| 6 | THE GREAT EIGHT | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 2/3·6d |
| 2 | SURFSIDE DAN | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 3/5·15d |
| 5 | BERMAN | 4% | 25/1 | 15/1 | 1/1·9d |
| 11 | FOTO | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 2/12·5d |
| 3 | FRESH START | 3% | 30/1 | 12/1 | 6/62·7d |
| 7 | FOLLOWILL | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | •1/30·8d |
- 2Despo's Dreamfirst start at a mile or longer · top third of this field on breeding for the trip · Flavien Prat back aboard, a winner on this horse four starts back
- 1Tough Streetclaimed last time out
- 5Princess Beccadrops from $45,000 to $25,000 off a 5th
- 6Pink Rosenew barn since the last start, now with Steven I Schauer
5 of the 10 have never raced on turf
- 3Blackjackbottom third of this field on turf breeding · new barn since the last start, now with Ilkay Kantarmaci
- 1Rufus The Redbottom third of this field on turf breeding
- 5Bardenblinkers off
- 10Knee Hightop third of this field on turf breeding
- 3Fiddling FelixRicardo Santana Jr back aboard, a winner on this horse three starts back
- 4Fateful Lightningblinkers on
- 7Barkerclaimed last time out
- 8Nuancedfirst start in 9 months
8 of the 12 have never gone a mile or longer
- 1Cadillac Marytop third of this field on breeding for the trip · blinkers on
- 9Hammers Nickelfirst start on turf · bottom third of this field on turf breeding
- 3Omi Mariabottom third of this field on breeding for the trip
- 4Split The Blankettop third of this field on breeding for the trip
- 6Juana Margaritafirst start on turf
- and 2 more with something to note
- 4Oh Come Onfirst start on dirt · top third of this field on dirt breeding
- 1Amanganifirst start in over a year · new barn since the last start, now with Philip Antonacci · first-time Lasix
- 3Silsbeewent off at 2/1 last time and finished 4th · Manuel Franco back aboard, a winner on this horse three starts back
- 6Annascaulfirst start in 11 months
- 8Golden Beachfirst start in 7 months
3 of the 11 have never raced on turf
- 2Serena Flybottom third of this field on turf breeding
- 5Diptiquebottom third of this field on turf breeding
- 10Roseberns DreamEdgard J Zayas back aboard, a winner on this horse two starts back
- 11CharlottesuniverseJ J Castellano back aboard, a winner on this horse three starts back
- 3Dream Machinefirst start in 12 months · first-time Lasix
- 1Fort WashingtonJunior Alvarado back aboard, a winner on this horse three starts back
- 2Kupunafirst start in 7 months
- 5Running BeeDylan Davis back aboard, a winner on this horse four starts back
- 8Taking Candyfirst start in 10 months
- 12Osiris Lawfirst start on turf · top third of this field on turf breeding
- 3Fresh Startfirst start in over a year
- 8Beau Chevalclaimed last time out
- 11Fotoblinkers off
Facts about the race, not predictions. A class move is shown with the finish it came off so you can judge it; we do not claim any of these wins, and only the flagged win bets above are graded on the record.
The whole card every runner, our number beside the board
| R | # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Edge | Rank | Why | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R11 mile dirtOptional claiming $20,000Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass | |||||||||
| R1 | 6 | PINK ROSE | 26% | 3/1 | 5/2 | +4 | 1 | ▲B | 8/52·8d |
| R1 | 8 | MURSAL | 20% | 4/1 | 2/1 | -5 | 2 | ▲B | 17/126·11d |
| R1 | 2 | DESPO'S DREAM | 12% | 7/1 | 9/2 | -2 | 3 | W | •1/55·7d |
| R1 | 4 | LIKA ROLLING STONE | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | 5 | BW | 6/107·12d |
| R1 | 3 | ADRIAN | 9% | 10/1 | 6/1 | -2 | 7 | B | 5/10·7d |
| R1 | 1 | TOUGH STREET | 9% | 10/1 | 12/1 | +3 | 4 | ▼ | 23/52·27d |
| R1 | 5 | PRINCESS BECCA | 7% | 12/1 | 15/1 | +3 | 6 | 82/138·25d | |
| R1 | 7 | BABY SASSICAIA | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | 8 | ▲BW | 43/52·12d |
| R25 1/2 furlongs turfMaiden special weightEven pace1 flag | |||||||||
| R2 | 4 | TROCA | 18% | 9/2 | 7/2 | +1 | B | 4/30·6d | |
| R2 | 3 | BLACKJACK | 15% | 6/1 | 10/1 | +8 | 1 | W | •1/75·12d |
| R2 | 1 | RUFUS THE RED | 13% | 7/1 | 9/2 | -2 | 2 | W | •1/39·13d |
| R2 | 8 | CRYPTO KING | 11% | 8/1 | 3/1 | -9 | 5 | W | •1/16·4d |
| R2 | 9 | SLICKBACK | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 3/5·10d | ||
| R2 | 6 | BE IN MONTY'S MIND | 9% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | W | •1/12·5d | |
| R2 | 5 | BARDEN | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 0 | 3 | W | •1/107·5d |
| R2 | 7 | BORAGO | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 0 | 10/21·6d | ||
| R2 | 10 | KNEE HIGH | 7% | 15/1 | 15/1 | +2 | 4 | W | 3/51·8d |
| R2 | 2 | HYPERBOREAN SPIRIT | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | •1/5·10d | ||
| R31 mile dirtStarter allowance, $55,000 levelEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R3 | 8 | NUANCED | 23% | 7/2 | 8/5 | -7 | 2 | B | 4/13·7d |
| R3 | 2 | EZ ROLL | 23% | 7/2 | 3/1 | +4 | 1 | 4/8·7d | |
| R3 | 7 | BARKER | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | 4 | •1/9·14d | |
| R3 | 1 | GET A JOB | 11% | 8/1 | 5/1 | -2 | 6 | 10/10·12d | |
| R3 | 6 | FREAKY | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | +1 | 5 | 5/16·7d | |
| R3 | 3 | FIDDLING FELIX | 9% | 10/1 | 12/1 | +3 | 3 | W | •1/27·6d |
| R3 | 4 | FATEFUL LIGHTNING | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 0 | 7 | •1/5·4d | |
| R3 | 5 | LUZ DE GUIA | 6% | 15/1 | 15/1 | +1 | 8 | B | — |
| R41 1/16 miles turfMaiden optional claiming $75,000Even pacepass | |||||||||
| R4 | 11 | QUOTED | 16% | 5/1 | 4/1 | +1 | 1 | 18/47·6d | |
| R4 | 1 | CADILLAC MARY | 15% | 11/2 | 5/1 | +2 | 2 | BW | 3/33·6d |
| R4 | 12 | ALL SHOW | 15% | 6/1 | 7/2 | -3 | 3 | 5/33·7d | |
| R4 | 3 | OMI MARIA | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | +1 | 4 | 5/16·9d | |
| R4 | 6 | JUANA MARGARITA | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 5 | W | 2/39·6d |
| R4 | 9 | HAMMERS NICKEL | 7% | 12/1 | 12/1 | +1 | 6 | 5/33·6d | |
| R4 | 7 | NEVER GONNA STOP | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 7 | 33/49·10d | |
| R4 | 8 | BUZZER BEATER | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | 7/23·14d | ||
| R4 | 4 | SPLIT THE BLANKET | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | -1 | 8 | B | 4/15·29d |
| R4 | 10 | SUNNY BIRD | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | W | •1/15·6d | |
| R4 | 5 | FIRE ANGEL | 4% | 25/1 | 15/1 | -1 | 9 | 4/8·10d | |
| R4 | 2 | MATZO BREI | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 10/24·6d | ||
| R56 furlongs dirtMaiden claiming $150,000Even pacepass | |||||||||
| R5 | 9 | FAIR PRACTICE | 27% | 5/2 | 2/1 | +1 | 1 | 2/11·5d | |
| R5 | 3 | CLOCK | 17% | 9/2 | 7/2 | 0 | W | 10/138·14d | |
| R5 | 8 | WHATDOESITALLMEAN | 14% | 6/1 | 9/2 | 0 | 3/16·7d | ||
| R5 | 1 | SEASIDE STARTUP | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 | 0 | W | 3/38·5d | |
| R5 | 5 | MAGNUM'S MONSOON | 7% | 15/1 | 10/1 | 0 | BW | •1/28·8d | |
| R5 | 2 | CHEYENNE'S SASS | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | W | •1/13·11d | |
| R5 | 4 | OH COME ON | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 2 | 8/10·13d | |
| R5 | 6 | FUNNY WORDS | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | B | 9/68·4d | |
| R5 | 7 | ANGIE'S CAFFE | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 1/2·6d | ||
| R65 1/2 furlongs turfAllowance $120,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass | |||||||||
| R6 | 3 | SILSBEE | 26% | 3/1 | 8/5 | -4 | 2 | 4/19·7d | |
| R6 | 6 | ANNASCAUL | 23% | 7/2 | 3/1 | +4 | 1 | 7/36·8d | |
| R6 | 1 | AMANGANI | 15% | 6/1 | 9/2 | 0 | B | 1/1·6d | |
| R6 | 4 | FROM SCRATCH | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 | -1 | 3 | 2/11·19d | |
| R6 | 5 | APORIA | 9% | 10/1 | 10/1 | +2 | 4 | ▲ | 8/52·19d |
| R6 | 7 | ONE MORE GUITAR | 7% | 12/1 | 12/1 | +1 | 5 | ▲W | 2/50·4d |
| R6 | 2 | RATU JAWA | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 6 | ▲B | 1/1·25d |
| R6 | 8 | GOLDEN BEACH | 4% | 25/1 | 12/1 | -2 | 7 | 4/9·8d | |
| R71 1/8 miles turfAllowance $105,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag | |||||||||
| R7 | 8 | FACTORY SETTING | 23% | 7/2 | 7/2 | +5 | 1 | ▲ | 20/64·6d |
| R7 | 9 | SILLY SEASON | 22% | 7/2 | 4/1 | +6 | 2 | ▲ | 35/66·7d |
| R7 | 11 | CHARLOTTESUNIVERSE | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 0 | 3 | W | 6/99·12d |
| R7 | 4 | CONSIDERATE CITY | 15% | 11/2 | 9/2 | +1 | 4 | ▲B | 4/6·4d |
| R7 | 7 | LIVIN THE BREEZE | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | 5 | 4/5·11d | |
| R7 | 3 | BRITAIN | 4% | 20/1 | 12/1 | -2 | 6 | B | 3/6·28d |
| R7 | 1 | BOOMINGTON | 4% | 25/1 | 10/1 | -3 | 7 | 3/22·25d | |
| R7 | 6 | TONGUE TWISTER | 3% | 30/1 | 10/1 | -4 | 8 | B | 3/6·44d |
| R7 | 10 | ROSEBERNS DREAM | 1% | 99/1 | 30/1 | -2 | 9 | ▼ | 8/16·11d |
| R7 | 5 | DIPTIQUE | 1% | 99/1 | 50/1 | -1 | 10 | 4/6·27d | |
| R7 | 2 | SERENA FLY | 1% | 99/1 | 50/1 | -1 | 11 | ▼ | •1/4·14d |
| R86 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R8 | 7 | BOGUS OPERANDI | 22% | 7/2 | 5/2 | 0 | 1 | 11/22·4d | |
| R8 | 6 | COMPLEX CHARLIE | 17% | 5/1 | 7/2 | -1 | 2 | W | •1/84·6d |
| R8 | 2 | ZATOPEK | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 0 | 2/17·6d | ||
| R8 | 8 | SPHERICAL | 15% | 6/1 | 6/1 | +3 | 3 | 13/52·8d | |
| R8 | 4 | ORIGINALITY | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | W | •1/11·7d | |
| R8 | 9 | ACE IN HAND | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 0 | W | 4/66·6d | |
| R8 | 5 | SUMMER OF GEORGE | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | W | 5/114·7d | |
| R8 | 3 | DREAM MACHINE | 4% | 20/1 | 10/1 | -3 | 4 | B | 8/24·7d |
| R8 | 1 | ENTICED MASTER | 1% | 50/1 | 50/1 | 0 | BW | •1/25·20d | |
| R91 1/16 miles turfStakes, $200,000 purseEven pace1 flag | |||||||||
| R9 | 4 | SALAMIS | 18% | 9/2 | 4/1 | +2 | 1 | 7/16·7d | |
| R9 | 3 | PASS THE HAT | 14% | 6/1 | 5/2 | -8 | 5 | W | •1/39·6d |
| R9 | 1 | FORT WASHINGTON | 14% | 6/1 | 10/1 | +7 | 2 | W | 4/57·4d |
| R9 | 7 | RISK TOLERANCE | 13% | 7/1 | 8/1 | +4 | 3 | 2/3·7d | |
| R9 | 5 | RUNNING BEE | 12% | 7/1 | 9/2 | -2 | 4 | 9/70·5d | |
| R9 | 8 | TAKING CANDY | 10% | 9/1 | 5/1 | -3 | 7 | W | •1/15·6d |
| R9 | 2 | KUPUNA | 10% | 9/1 | 5/1 | -3 | 8 | W | 2/62·7d |
| R9 | 6 | UNCLE'S GOLD | 9% | 10/1 | 12/1 | +3 | 6 | •1/6·4d | |
| R101 1/16 miles turfMaiden claiming $50,000Contested pace likely (5 early-speed types)1 flag | |||||||||
| R10 | 10 | GILBANE | 21% | 7/2 | 3/1 | +2 | 1 | ▲ | 10/16·7d |
| R10 | 9 | BEFORE THE WIND | 15% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 0 | 3 | ▲ | 6/6·6d |
| R10 | 8 | BEAU CHEVAL | 14% | 6/1 | 8/1 | +5 | 2 | B | 1/2·6d |
| R10 | 4 | FIVEDOLLARSFORSOX | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 | 0 | B | 3/4·10d | |
| R10 | 12 | OSIRIS LAW | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 | -1 | 5 | B | 25/36·8d |
| R10 | 1 | MO CURLS | 6% | 15/1 | 10/1 | -1 | 4 | ▼ | 2/9·8d |
| R10 | 6 | THE GREAT EIGHT | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 2/3·6d | ||
| R10 | 2 | SURFSIDE DAN | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | 3/5·15d | ||
| R10 | 5 | BERMAN | 4% | 25/1 | 15/1 | -1 | 6 | ▼ | 1/1·9d |
| R10 | 11 | FOTO | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 7 | ▲B | 2/12·5d |
| R10 | 3 | FRESH START | 3% | 30/1 | 12/1 | -3 | 8 | ▼W | 6/62·7d |
| R10 | 7 | FOLLOWILL | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | -1 | 9 | ▼BW | •1/30·8d |
Rank is our power-figure blend, 1 is best. Why reads left to right: whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, and BLANK means we have nothing to say, so only rows with signal carry a mark. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.
Price your own ticket
The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 10 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.
Three of the 8 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile on dirt in a $20,000 optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | PINK ROSE | 26% | 3/1 | 5/2 | 8/52·8d |
| 8 | MURSAL | 20% | 4/1 | 2/1 | 17/126·11d |
| 2 | DESPO'S DREAM | 12% | 7/1 | 9/2 | •1/55·7d |
| 4 | LIKA ROLLING STONE | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 6/107·12d |
| 3 | ADRIAN | 9% | 10/1 | 6/1 | 5/10·7d |
| 1 | TOUGH STREET | 9% | 10/1 | 12/1 | 23/52·27d |
| 5 | PRINCESS BECCA | 7% | 12/1 | 15/1 | 82/138·25d |
| 7 | BABY SASSICAIA | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 43/52·12d |
Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | NUANCED | 23% | 7/2 | 8/5 | 4/13·7d |
| 2 | EZ ROLL | 23% | 7/2 | 3/1 | 4/8·7d |
| 7 | BARKER | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | •1/9·14d |
| 1 | GET A JOB | 11% | 8/1 | 5/1 | 10/10·12d |
| 6 | FREAKY | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 5/16·7d |
| 3 | FIDDLING FELIX | 9% | 10/1 | 12/1 | •1/27·6d |
| 4 | FATEFUL LIGHTNING | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | •1/5·4d |
| 5 | LUZ DE GUIA | 6% | 15/1 | 15/1 | — |
No runner here is entitled to the lead on the early figures. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | QUOTED | 16% | 5/1 | 4/1 | 18/47·6d |
| 1 | CADILLAC MARY | 15% | 11/2 | 5/1 | 3/33·6d |
| 12 | ALL SHOW | 15% | 6/1 | 7/2 | 5/33·7d |
| 3 | OMI MARIA | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 5/16·9d |
| 6 | JUANA MARGARITA | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 2/39·6d |
| 9 | HAMMERS NICKEL | 7% | 12/1 | 12/1 | 5/33·6d |
| 7 | NEVER GONNA STOP | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 33/49·10d |
| 8 | BUZZER BEATER | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 7/23·14d |
| 4 | SPLIT THE BLANKET | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | 4/15·29d |
| 10 | SUNNY BIRD | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | •1/15·6d |
| 5 | FIRE ANGEL | 4% | 25/1 | 15/1 | 4/8·10d |
| 2 | MATZO BREI | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 10/24·6d |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | FAIR PRACTICE | 27% | 5/2 | 2/1 | 2/11·5d |
| 3 | CLOCK | 17% | 9/2 | 7/2 | 10/138·14d |
| 8 | WHATDOESITALLMEAN | 14% | 6/1 | 9/2 | 3/16·7d |
| 1 | SEASIDE STARTUP | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 | 3/38·5d |
| 5 | MAGNUM'S MONSOON | 7% | 15/1 | 10/1 | •1/28·8d |
| 2 | CHEYENNE'S SASS | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | •1/13·11d |
| 4 | OH COME ON | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 8/10·13d |
| 6 | FUNNY WORDS | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 9/68·4d |
| 7 | ANGIE'S CAFFE | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 1/2·6d |
Three of the 8 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five and a half furlongs on turf in an allowance should be contested rather than soft.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | SILSBEE | 26% | 3/1 | 8/5 | 4/19·7d |
| 6 | ANNASCAUL | 23% | 7/2 | 3/1 | 7/36·8d |
| 1 | AMANGANI | 15% | 6/1 | 9/2 | 1/1·6d |
| 4 | FROM SCRATCH | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 | 2/11·19d |
| 5 | APORIA | 9% | 10/1 | 10/1 | 8/52·19d |
| 7 | ONE MORE GUITAR | 7% | 12/1 | 12/1 | 2/50·4d |
| 2 | RATU JAWA | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 1/1·25d |
| 8 | GOLDEN BEACH | 4% | 25/1 | 12/1 | 4/9·8d |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | BOGUS OPERANDI | 22% | 7/2 | 5/2 | 11/22·4d |
| 6 | COMPLEX CHARLIE | 17% | 5/1 | 7/2 | •1/84·6d |
| 2 | ZATOPEK | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 2/17·6d |
| 8 | SPHERICAL | 15% | 6/1 | 6/1 | 13/52·8d |
| 4 | ORIGINALITY | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | •1/11·7d |
| 9 | ACE IN HAND | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 4/66·6d |
| 5 | SUMMER OF GEORGE | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 5/114·7d |
| 3 | DREAM MACHINE | 4% | 20/1 | 10/1 | 8/24·7d |
| 1 | ENTICED MASTER | 1% | 50/1 | 50/1 | •1/25·20d |
We lose most single flags. That’s expected. The edge is price: when we’re right, the board paid more than fair. Our 30% picks win about 30% (see the calibration curve), and every call is graded against the closing odds, wins and losses.
No set price. On the tote you’re paid the closing odds, so the edge isn’t a line you beat early. It’s the gap between our fair number and where the crowd lands. We grade each flag against the actual close.
Our last miss: SAR R3 Pauillac, flagged at 5/1, didn’t win, and it is on the record like every call.
Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 70a95150 · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 cd186c16b26f… · Scratch status checked at 1:36 PM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.
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