Del Mar, Thu Sep 3, 2026
Today’s card runs on TwinSpires as Edge Card Plays. Edge Card is an independent publication and is not a TwinSpires product; the plays and the record are the same ones published here.
New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.
Four of the 5 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five furlongs on turf in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.
The model’s read ▾
CERTITUDE is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.
It tops our own win number, 9.7 points clear of the next one, and with 4 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.
4 of the 5 want the front over five furlongs on turf, so the early fractions should be honest.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | CERTITUDE ◀ | 34% | 2/1 | 3/1 | •1/15·5d |
| 4 | BIT'S TIGER MAGIC | 25% | 3/1 | 8/5 | 4/93·11d |
| 2 | TAHINI | 19% | 9/2 | 5/2 | 2/62·4d |
| 3 | SARATOGA SPECIAL | 14% | 6/1 | 3/1 | 3/18·11d |
| 1 | VISUALLY | 8% | 12/1 | 15/1 | •1/16·7d |
Three of the 8 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five furlongs on turf in a $50,000 optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.
The model’s read ▾
It rates second on our own win number, 1.4 points behind the top, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.
3 of the 8 want the front over five furlongs on turf, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNBINDING | 29% | 5/2 | 2/1 | 3/64·13d |
| 4 | NOT A SINNER ◀ | 27% | 5/2 | 3/1 | 2/11·6d |
| 3 | NIKOLINA | 12% | 15/2 | 5/1 | 3/20·5d |
| 5 | HEY LIL LADY | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 2/5·9d |
| 2 | MIDNIGHT COWGIRL | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 | 16/16·8d |
| 8 | LLAMP | 6% | 15/1 | 10/1 | 13/19·7d |
| 7 | SEPARATOR | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | •1/9·6d |
| 6 | WILDFIRE PRINCESS | 4% | 25/1 | 12/1 | 3/5·9d |
No one horse is entitled to the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.
The model’s read ▾
This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.
It tops our own win number, 24.9 points clear of the next one.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | THE WHITE LADY ◀ | 38% | 8/5 | 5/2 | •1/14·12d |
| 4 | DEA MATRONA | 13% | 7/1 | 3/1 | 23/101·6d |
| 5 | SAREEHA | 11% | 8/1 | 8/1 | 4/9·6d |
| 11 | LITTLE HIDDEN PORT | 10% | 9/1 | 5/1 | 9/55·4d |
| 3 | MOTET | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 | 12/52·6d |
| 1 | CORPORAL VIOLETTE | 6% | 15/1 | 8/1 | 1/2·13d |
| 8 | CAMERON SLOUGH | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 12/30·26d |
| 2 | QUANTUM INNERGY | 4% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 12/106·7d |
| 9 | LA SCALONETA | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 | 8/27·5d |
| 10 | SAKURA FLAVOR | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | 2/7·7d |
- 2TahiniAntonio Fresu back aboard, a winner on this horse two starts back
- 3Saratoga Specialwent off at 3/2 last time and finished 6th
- 5Certitudewent off at 2/1 last time and finished 5th
- 2Good Golly Dollyclaimed last time out
- 4Victoria's Jewelup from $6,250 to $12,500 off a 7th
- 8Sugar Reigndrops from $25,000 to $12,500 off a 6th
- 8Tiger To Youfirst start at a mile or longer · blinkers on
- 2Halninethousandblinkers off
- 3Fire Chiefblinkers off
- 4Farmer Tomblinkers on
- 6Mansa Musanew barn since the last start, now with George L Lopez
- and 1 more with something to note
- 7Separatorfirst start in 12 months · first-time Lasix
- 8Llampclaimed last time out
6 of the 8 have never gone a mile or longer
- 4Truth Or Darewent off at 3/2 last time and finished 7th · top third of this field on breeding for the trip · blinkers off
- 7Monumentalfirst start on dirt · bottom third of this field on dirt breeding · blinkers off
- 1Deep Trackstop third of this field on breeding for the trip · first start in 6 months
- 2Collmuswent off at 4/5 last time and finished 4th
- 3Themayor Of Delmarblinkers on
5 of the 10 were claimed last time out
- 7The White Ladywent off at 9/5 last time and finished 5th · Umberto Rispoli back aboard, a winner on this horse three starts back
- 5Sareehawent off at 5/2 last time and finished 5th
- 10Sakura Flavorblinkers on
- 8Lyndee's Dreamfirst start at a mile or longer · bottom third of this field on breeding for the trip · blinkers off
- 6Suntory Timefirst start on dirt · claimed last time out
- 1Dorie Millerblinkers off
- 7Theresasilverlininup from $10,000 to $20,000 off a win
- 10Green Zoneclaimed last time out
4 of the 9 have never gone a mile or longer
- 3Roxiiesbadboytop third of this field on breeding for the trip · first start in 7 months
- 2Chaotic Neutraltop third of this field on breeding for the trip
- 4Sissy Girltop third of this field on breeding for the trip
- 6Shapovalnew barn since the last start, now with Peter Miller
- 9Milken Cookiesfirst start in over a year
Facts about the race, not predictions. A class move is shown with the finish it came off so you can judge it; we do not claim any of these wins, and only the flagged win bets above are graded on the record.
The whole card every runner, our number beside the board
| R | # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Edge | Rank | Why | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R15 furlongs turfOptional claiming $100,000Contested pace likely (4 early-speed types)1 flag | |||||||||
| R1 | 5 | CERTITUDE | 34% | 2/1 | 3/1 | +14 | 1 | BW | •1/15·5d |
| R1 | 4 | BIT'S TIGER MAGIC | 25% | 3/1 | 8/5 | -7 | 2 | ▲W | 4/93·11d |
| R1 | 2 | TAHINI | 19% | 9/2 | 5/2 | -4 | 3 | ▲W | 2/62·4d |
| R1 | 3 | SARATOGA SPECIAL | 14% | 6/1 | 3/1 | -6 | 4 | 3/18·11d | |
| R1 | 1 | VISUALLY | 8% | 12/1 | 15/1 | +3 | 5 | ▲W | •1/16·7d |
| R21 mile dirtClaiming $12,500, non-winners of two lifetimeContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass | |||||||||
| R2 | 8 | SUGAR REIGN | 20% | 4/1 | 5/2 | -3 | 2 | ▲ | 8/22·22d |
| R2 | 7 | BUSY MAKING MUNNY | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 0 | 1 | ▼B | 15/84·39d |
| R2 | 2 | GOOD GOLLY DOLLY | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 | 0 | 3 | 21/72·38d | |
| R2 | 5 | DATS MS. BLAME | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 | 0 | 4 | 4/6·15d | |
| R2 | 9 | BITTER TRUTH | 12% | 7/1 | 8/1 | +4 | 5 | ▲ | •1/4·7d |
| R2 | 6 | SUGAREE | 9% | 10/1 | 10/1 | +2 | 6 | 12/38·18d | |
| R2 | 3 | RICH OF JOY | 6% | 15/1 | 8/1 | -3 | 9 | ▲ | 30/62·18d |
| R2 | 4 | VICTORIA'S JEWEL | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | -1 | 8 | ▼W | 7/84·5d |
| R2 | 1 | UNION HEIRESS | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 | +1 | 7 | 15/26·46d | |
| R31 mile dirtMaiden claiming $12,500Even pacepass | |||||||||
| R3 | 10 | DAZZLE COMM | 18% | 9/2 | 3/1 | -2 | 1 | 11/19·7d | |
| R3 | 4 | FARMER TOM | 15% | 6/1 | 7/2 | -3 | 4 | B | 9/9·6d |
| R3 | 8 | TIGER TO YOU | 14% | 6/1 | 5/1 | +1 | 2 | B | •1/5·10d |
| R3 | 9 | WASTING ACES | 14% | 6/1 | 4/1 | -2 | 3 | 10/63·32d | |
| R3 | 2 | HALNINETHOUSAND | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 | +2 | 5 | 2/14·8d | |
| R3 | 11 | STAGE RUN | 9% | 10/1 | 12/1 | +3 | 6 | W | 83/93·32d |
| R3 | 6 | MANSA MUSA | 7% | 15/1 | 12/1 | +1 | 7 | 8/87·39d | |
| R3 | 7 | ITS THE BANDIT | 7% | 15/1 | 10/1 | -1 | 8 | 1/3·40d | |
| R3 | 3 | FIRE CHIEF | 4% | 25/1 | 30/1 | +2 | 9 | 3/16·11d | |
| R3 | 5 | MAJOR MO | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | -1 | 10 | 12/103·8d | |
| R45 furlongs turfOptional claiming $50,000Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag | |||||||||
| R4 | 1 | UNBINDING | 29% | 5/2 | 2/1 | +2 | 2 | ▲W | 3/64·13d |
| R4 | 4 | NOT A SINNER | 27% | 5/2 | 3/1 | +7 | 1 | ▲ | 2/11·6d |
| R4 | 3 | NIKOLINA | 12% | 15/2 | 5/1 | -2 | 3 | 3/20·5d | |
| R4 | 5 | HEY LIL LADY | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | 4 | ▲ | 2/5·9d |
| R4 | 2 | MIDNIGHT COWGIRL | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 | -1 | 5 | ▼ | 16/16·8d |
| R4 | 8 | LLAMP | 6% | 15/1 | 10/1 | -2 | 6 | 13/19·7d | |
| R4 | 7 | SEPARATOR | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | -2 | 7 | B | •1/9·6d |
| R4 | 6 | WILDFIRE PRINCESS | 4% | 25/1 | 12/1 | -3 | 8 | ▼ | 3/5·9d |
| R51 mile dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R5 | 2 | COLLMUS | 19% | 9/2 | 4/1 | +3 | 1 | BW | •1/14·5d |
| R5 | 4 | TRUTH OR DARE | 17% | 5/1 | 7/2 | -1 | 2 | BW | •1/17·5d |
| R5 | 5 | PLAGARIST | 17% | 5/1 | 3/1 | -3 | 3 | 5/34·7d | |
| R5 | 6 | KNAVE OF HEARTS | 12% | 15/2 | 8/1 | +3 | 4 | 17/105·18d | |
| R5 | 8 | ROAST | 12% | 15/2 | 6/1 | 0 | 6 | W | 2/34·7d |
| R5 | 7 | MONUMENTAL | 11% | 15/2 | 8/1 | +3 | 5 | W | •1/54·10d |
| R5 | 1 | DEEP TRACKS | 8% | 11/1 | 5/1 | -5 | 7 | 7/54·5d | |
| R5 | 3 | THEMAYOR OF DELMAR | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 8 | 2/2·6d | |
| R61 mile turfClaiming $32,000Even pace1 flag | |||||||||
| R6 | 7 | THE WHITE LADY | 38% | 8/5 | 5/2 | +15 | 1 | W | •1/14·12d |
| R6 | 4 | DEA MATRONA | 13% | 7/1 | 3/1 | -7 | 3 | 23/101·6d | |
| R6 | 5 | SAREEHA | 11% | 8/1 | 8/1 | +2 | 2 | 4/9·6d | |
| R6 | 11 | LITTLE HIDDEN PORT | 10% | 9/1 | 5/1 | -3 | 4 | 9/55·4d | |
| R6 | 3 | MOTET | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 | -2 | 5 | 12/52·6d | |
| R6 | 1 | CORPORAL VIOLETTE | 6% | 15/1 | 8/1 | -3 | 6 | 1/2·13d | |
| R6 | 8 | CAMERON SLOUGH | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | 7 | 12/30·26d | |
| R6 | 2 | QUANTUM INNERGY | 4% | 20/1 | 15/1 | -1 | 8 | B | 12/106·7d |
| R6 | 9 | LA SCALONETA | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 | -2 | 9 | 8/27·5d | |
| R6 | 10 | SAKURA FLAVOR | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | -1 | 10 | B | 2/7·7d |
| R71 mile dirtOptional claiming $20,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass | |||||||||
| R7 | 2 | CHRISTEL CLEAN | 21% | 7/2 | 5/2 | -2 | 1 | BW | 2/45·7d |
| R7 | 4 | PAVEL IS APPEALING | 19% | 4/1 | 7/2 | +2 | 2 | ▲W | 34/34·7d |
| R7 | 1 | DORIE MILLER | 11% | 8/1 | 8/1 | +2 | 4 | ▲BW | 71/72·38d |
| R7 | 10 | GREEN ZONE | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 5 | 3/25·20d | |
| R7 | 9 | LINO'S ANGEL | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | -1 | 3 | ▼B | •1/9·8d |
| R7 | 6 | SUNTORY TIME | 8% | 12/1 | 12/1 | +2 | 6 | 13/17·21d | |
| R7 | 3 | CECILIA STREET | 7% | 12/1 | 6/1 | -4 | 9 | 24/48·13d | |
| R7 | 8 | LYNDEE'S DREAM | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 7 | ▼W | 4/42·10d |
| R7 | 7 | THERESASILVERLININ | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 8 | 10/76·13d | |
| R7 | 5 | KOOL MARIAH | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 10 | ▼ | 19/21·7d |
| R81 1/16 miles turfMaiden claiming $50,000Lone speedpass | |||||||||
| R8 | 5 | HIGH KING | 26% | 3/1 | 5/2 | +4 | 1 | 14/91·25d | |
| R8 | 6 | SHAPOVAL | 19% | 4/1 | 3/1 | -1 | 2 | 4/5·10d | |
| R8 | 1 | HEROIC DOSE | 15% | 11/2 | 7/2 | -3 | 4 | •1/4·7d | |
| R8 | 4 | SISSY GIRL | 14% | 6/1 | 8/1 | +6 | 3 | 7/27·11d | |
| R8 | 9 | MILKEN COOKIES | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 | -2 | 5 | B | 1/1·6d |
| R8 | 2 | CHAOTIC NEUTRAL | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 | -2 | 6 | B | 10/35·13d |
| R8 | 7 | HAMMERBARN | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | 6/14·7d | ||
| R8 | 3 | ROXIIESBADBOY | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 | -2 | 8 | ▲W | 2/27·10d |
| R8 | 8 | ROWDYBARFIGHT | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | 0 | 7 | BW | •1/30·13d |
Rank is our power-figure blend, 1 is best. Why reads left to right: whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, and BLANK means we have nothing to say, so only rows with signal carry a mark. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.
Price your own ticket
The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 8 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.
Four of the 9 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile on dirt in a $12,500 claimer should be contested rather than soft.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | SUGAR REIGN | 20% | 4/1 | 5/2 | 8/22·22d |
| 7 | BUSY MAKING MUNNY | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 15/84·39d |
| 2 | GOOD GOLLY DOLLY | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 | 21/72·38d |
| 5 | DATS MS. BLAME | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 | 4/6·15d |
| 9 | BITTER TRUTH | 12% | 7/1 | 8/1 | •1/4·7d |
| 6 | SUGAREE | 9% | 10/1 | 10/1 | 12/38·18d |
| 3 | RICH OF JOY | 6% | 15/1 | 8/1 | 30/62·18d |
| 4 | VICTORIA'S JEWEL | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | 7/84·5d |
| 1 | UNION HEIRESS | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 | 15/26·46d |
Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | DAZZLE COMM | 18% | 9/2 | 3/1 | 11/19·7d |
| 4 | FARMER TOM | 15% | 6/1 | 7/2 | 9/9·6d |
| 8 | TIGER TO YOU | 14% | 6/1 | 5/1 | •1/5·10d |
| 9 | WASTING ACES | 14% | 6/1 | 4/1 | 10/63·32d |
| 2 | HALNINETHOUSAND | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 | 2/14·8d |
| 11 | STAGE RUN | 9% | 10/1 | 12/1 | 83/93·32d |
| 6 | MANSA MUSA | 7% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 8/87·39d |
| 7 | ITS THE BANDIT | 7% | 15/1 | 10/1 | 1/3·40d |
| 3 | FIRE CHIEF | 4% | 25/1 | 30/1 | 3/16·11d |
| 5 | MAJOR MO | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | 12/103·8d |
No runner here is entitled to the lead on the early figures. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | COLLMUS | 19% | 9/2 | 4/1 | •1/14·5d |
| 4 | TRUTH OR DARE | 17% | 5/1 | 7/2 | •1/17·5d |
| 5 | PLAGARIST | 17% | 5/1 | 3/1 | 5/34·7d |
| 6 | KNAVE OF HEARTS | 12% | 15/2 | 8/1 | 17/105·18d |
| 8 | ROAST | 12% | 15/2 | 6/1 | 2/34·7d |
| 7 | MONUMENTAL | 11% | 15/2 | 8/1 | •1/54·10d |
| 1 | DEEP TRACKS | 8% | 11/1 | 5/1 | 7/54·5d |
| 3 | THEMAYOR OF DELMAR | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 2/2·6d |
Three of the 10 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile on dirt in a $20,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CHRISTEL CLEAN | 21% | 7/2 | 5/2 | 2/45·7d |
| 4 | PAVEL IS APPEALING | 19% | 4/1 | 7/2 | 34/34·7d |
| 1 | DORIE MILLER | 11% | 8/1 | 8/1 | 71/72·38d |
| 10 | GREEN ZONE | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 3/25·20d |
| 9 | LINO'S ANGEL | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | •1/9·8d |
| 6 | SUNTORY TIME | 8% | 12/1 | 12/1 | 13/17·21d |
| 3 | CECILIA STREET | 7% | 12/1 | 6/1 | 24/48·13d |
| 8 | LYNDEE'S DREAM | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 4/42·10d |
| 7 | THERESASILVERLININ | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 10/76·13d |
| 5 | KOOL MARIAH | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 19/21·7d |
One of the 9 looks alone on the lead, clear of the field on the early figures over a mile and a sixteenth on turf, with nothing else in here entitled to go with it.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | HIGH KING | 26% | 3/1 | 5/2 | 14/91·25d |
| 6 | SHAPOVAL | 19% | 4/1 | 3/1 | 4/5·10d |
| 1 | HEROIC DOSE | 15% | 11/2 | 7/2 | •1/4·7d |
| 4 | SISSY GIRL | 14% | 6/1 | 8/1 | 7/27·11d |
| 9 | MILKEN COOKIES | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 | 1/1·6d |
| 2 | CHAOTIC NEUTRAL | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 | 10/35·13d |
| 7 | HAMMERBARN | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 6/14·7d |
| 3 | ROXIIESBADBOY | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 | 2/27·10d |
| 8 | ROWDYBARFIGHT | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | •1/30·13d |
We lose most single flags. That’s expected. The edge is price: when we’re right, the board paid more than fair. Our 30% picks win about 30% (see the calibration curve), and every call is graded against the closing odds, wins and losses.
No set price. On the tote you’re paid the closing odds, so the edge isn’t a line you beat early. It’s the gap between our fair number and where the crowd lands. We grade each flag against the actual close.
Our last miss: SAR R3 Pauillac, flagged at 5/1, didn’t win, and it is on the record like every call.
Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 70a95150 · takeout (DMR) win 15.43% / exacta 22.68% · card SHA-256 53262e76cc42… · Scratch status has not yet been confirmed. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.
Verifying this card
| OpenTimestamps status | not available |
|---|