Saratoga, Sun Aug 30, 2026
10 races · published 11:22 AM ET · card locked
4 value plays today · 6 races we're passing
Edge of the Day
3FOOLIN
Race 1 · 5 1/2 furlongs turf
35%model9/5fair2/1boardWINpaid at the close
Our biggest edge on the card today (+9 pts over the board), the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number, so size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.
Today at SaratogaMostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Rain Showers, 77°F, wind 6 mph · rain 20%, no off-track flagNWS forecast
Also on TwinSpires
Bet these plays at TwinSpiresToday’s card runs on TwinSpires as Edge Card Plays. Edge Card is an independent publication and is not a TwinSpires product; the plays and the record are the same ones published here.
Flags 4 of 10 races
New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.
Today’s plays4 flags
RaceHorseModelBoardEdge
R13Foolin35%2/1+9 ptsR44Bow Draw21%4/1+5 ptsR810Modest Maclean28%5/2+6 ptsR91Midnight Concerto22%4/1+6 ptsFlagShare
3FOOLIN
Model
Fair
Board
35%
9/5
2/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
Likely bet down A short board price for this track, and prices this short more often shorten by post than not. Still a win play, but expect a smaller number than the board shows, because pari-mutuel pays the close. Size it smaller.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.
The model’s read ▾
This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.
It tops our own win number, 11.3 points clear of the next one.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | FOOLIN ◀ | 35% | 9/5 | 2/1 | 3/74·8d |
| 7 | LOU'S ROOM | 23% | 7/2 | 9/5 | 4/17·21d |
| 4 | FLOWLINE | 20% | 4/1 | 3/1 | •1/29·3d |
| 1 | SONGBIRD PRINCE | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | •1/23·9d |
| 6 | CACTUS CLOSER | 5% | 20/1 | 8/1 | 6/65·9d |
| 5 | FEAR NO ONE | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 2/37·7d |
| 2 | MAMBO JAZZ | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | 2/6·12d |
FlagShare
4BOW DRAW
Model
Fair
Board
21%
4/1
4/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
The board and our fair price round to the same number (4/1), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show, it is +5.1 points of win probability, not a longer price.
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
No one horse is entitled to the lead. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.
It rates second on our own win number, 5.8 points behind the top.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | MARIA LOUISE | 27% | 3/1 | 7/5 | 5/29·7d |
| 4 | BOW DRAW ◀ | 21% | 4/1 | 4/1 | 5/28·11d |
| 2 | GOLDEN IRISH | 13% | 7/1 | 12/1 | 4/12·8d |
| 7 | DONOR ADVISED | 13% | 7/1 | 3/1 | 12/66·8d |
| 6 | TRUSTY TROUTMAN | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 | 3/8·8d |
| 3 | FIRE MOON | 9% | 11/1 | 6/1 | •1/33·9d |
| 1 | RAGHBA | 8% | 11/1 | 12/1 | 14/38·7d |
FlagShare
10MODEST MACLEAN
Model
Fair
Board
28%
5/2
5/2
our win %
break-even
the morning line
The board and our fair price round to the same number (5/2), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show, it is +5.6 points of win probability, not a longer price.
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
Likely bet down A short board price for this track, and prices this short more often shorten by post than not. Still a win play, but expect a smaller number than the board shows, because pari-mutuel pays the close. Size it smaller.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Barn angle strong here
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Go forward1289
Pace helps610
Four of the 10 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over six furlongs on dirt in a maiden special weight should be contested rather than soft.
The model’s read ▾
It tops our own win number, 15.6 points clear of the next one, and with 4 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.
4 of the 10 want the front over six furlongs on dirt, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | MODEST MACLEAN ◀ | 28% | 5/2 | 5/2 | 5/138·35d |
| 1 | KARSTEN | 12% | 7/1 | 6/1 | 3/63·7d |
| 2 | ISTHEREANORMALWIFE | 12% | 15/2 | 7/2 | 4/18·8d |
| 8 | BOSSOFEVERYTHING | 12% | 15/2 | 5/1 | 16/34·9d |
| 3 | TAP RULES | 12% | 15/2 | 6/1 | •1/11·8d |
| 6 | HIGH LEVERAGE | 8% | 11/1 | 10/1 | •1/11·7d |
| 5 | GALICAT | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 6/9·7d |
| 4 | HAPPY GO MORE | 4% | 25/1 | 15/1 | •1/102·10d |
| 9 | MY MUNNY TALKS | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | 3/19·8d |
| 7 | THESPIAN | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | 3/4·4d |
FlagShare
1MIDNIGHT CONCERTO
Model
Fair
Board
22%
7/2
4/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Go forward35
Pace helps14
Three of the 9 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile and a sixteenth on turf in a starter allowance should be contested rather than soft.
The model’s read ▾
It rates second on our own win number, 0.1 points behind the top, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.
3 of the 9 want the front over a mile and a sixteenth on turf, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | AWESOME CZECH | 22% | 7/2 | 2/1 | 7/151·7d |
| 1 | MIDNIGHT CONCERTO ◀ | 22% | 7/2 | 4/1 | •1/6·5d |
| 3 | BERNIETAKESCHARGE | 11% | 8/1 | 8/1 | 4/37·6d |
| 8 | SAIL WITH THE WIND | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 | 7/61·7d |
| 4 | BEING BETTY | 9% | 10/1 | 6/1 | 8/9·9d |
| 7 | BROKEALLTHERULES | 9% | 10/1 | 10/1 | 20/28·12d |
| 5 | SPINNING COLORS | 8% | 12/1 | 8/1 | 12/23·38d |
| 6 | COSMIC CANDY GIRL | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | 51/55·15d |
| 2 | MARVELOUS MADISON | 4% | 25/1 | 15/1 | 8/12·7d |
What to know about each race today
R15 1/2 furlongs turfMaiden special weight
3 of the 7 have never raced on turf
- 2Mambo Jazzbottom third of this field on turf breeding · blinkers on
- 3Foolintop third of this field on turf breeding · blinkers on
- 6Cactus Closertop third of this field on turf breeding
R26 furlongs dirtClaiming $55,000
- 6Perfect Forceclaimed last time out
R31 1/16 miles turfMaiden special weight
- 1Warrior At Heartfirst start on turf · first start at a mile or longer · blinkers on
- 6Jackpot Jackiefirst start on turf · first start at a mile or longer · top third of this field on turf breeding
R41 mile dirtOptional claiming $55,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starter
- 2Golden Irishfirst start at a mile or longer · bottom third of this field on breeding for the trip
- 4Bow Drawclaimed last time out
- 7Donor Advisedfirst start in over a year
R55 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden special weight
3 of the 10 have never raced on dirt
- 8Bankthemoneyhoneyblinkers on
R61 1/16 miles turfMaiden special weight
5 of the 12 have never gone a mile or longer
3 of the 12 have never raced on turf
- 6Seismic Activitytop third of this field on breeding for the trip
- 8Mc Cruisertop third of this field on breeding for the trip
R77 furlongs dirtClaiming $20,000, non-winners of three lifetime
- 4Bobby Jeanfirst start under a mile · bottom third of this field on breeding for the trip · claimed last time out
- 2Cararranew barn since the last start, now with Lolita Shivmangal
- 7Belle CherieRicardo Santana Jr back aboard, a winner on this horse four starts back
- 9Pocket Queensclaimed last time out
R86 furlongs dirtMaiden special weight
- 1Karstenfirst start on dirt · first start under a mile · top third of this field on dirt breeding
- 6High Leveragefirst start on dirt · new barn since the last start, now with Michael J Maker
- 4Happy Go Moreblinkers on
- 7Thespiannew barn since the last start, now with Bob G Dunham
- 9My Munny Talksnew barn since the last start, now with Lolita Shivmangal
- and 1 more with something to note
R91 1/16 miles turfStakes, $200,000 purse
- 3Bernietakeschargefirst start on turf · bottom third of this field on turf breeding
R101 mile turfMaiden special weight
- 6No Differencenew barn since the last start, now with Antonio Arriaga · blinkers on
- 7Indomiknownew barn since the last start, now with Lauren Robson · first-time Lasix
- 8Miss Twitterfirst start on turf · top third of this field on turf breeding
- 9One Bad Habitfirst-time Lasix
- 10Legal Squeezefirst start in 7 months
Facts about the race, not predictions. A class move is shown with the finish it came off so you can judge it; we do not claim any of these wins, and only the flagged win bets above are graded on the record.
The whole card every runner, our number beside the board
| R | # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Edge | Rank | Why | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R15 1/2 furlongs turfMaiden special weightEven pace1 flag | |||||||||
| R1 | 3 | FOOLIN | 35% | 9/5 | 2/1 | +9 | 1 | W | 3/74·8d |
| R1 | 7 | LOU'S ROOM | 23% | 7/2 | 9/5 | -4 | 2 | 4/17·21d | |
| R1 | 4 | FLOWLINE | 20% | 4/1 | 3/1 | 0 | BW | •1/29·3d | |
| R1 | 1 | SONGBIRD PRINCE | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | W | •1/23·9d | |
| R1 | 6 | CACTUS CLOSER | 5% | 20/1 | 8/1 | -3 | 3 | W | 6/65·9d |
| R1 | 5 | FEAR NO ONE | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | BW | 2/37·7d | |
| R1 | 2 | MAMBO JAZZ | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | -1 | 4 | B | 2/6·12d |
| R26 furlongs dirtClaiming $55,000Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass | |||||||||
| R2 | 5 | TIGER TWENTY FOUR | 35% | 9/5 | 4/5 | -9 | 1 | ▲ | 1/2·10d |
| R2 | 6 | PERFECT FORCE | 17% | 9/2 | 3/1 | -2 | 3 | ▲ | 7/11·13d |
| R2 | 3 | MOMENTUM FILES | 13% | 7/1 | 6/1 | +2 | 2 | ▼W | 5/151·8d |
| R2 | 7 | CELESTIAL GLAZE | 11% | 8/1 | 8/1 | +2 | 4 | W | •1/26·3d |
| R2 | 1 | TRIPP'S PROMISE | 11% | 8/1 | 10/1 | +4 | 5 | ▲ | 14/58·49d |
| R2 | 2 | SHARE THE LUDT | 7% | 15/1 | 15/1 | +2 | 6 | •1/14·24d | |
| R2 | 4 | GYPSY DREAMING | 6% | 15/1 | 15/1 | +2 | 7 | W | •1/111·10d |
| R31 1/16 miles turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R3 | 2 | KIPROS | 20% | 4/1 | 5/2 | -2 | 1 | W | 2/49·6d |
| R3 | 7 | TICKET TO FAME | 15% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 0 | W | •1/23·6d | |
| R3 | 3 | HETCH HETCHY | 15% | 6/1 | 9/2 | +1 | B | •1/4·9d | |
| R3 | 5 | GENEVA LAKE | 14% | 6/1 | 6/1 | +3 | 2 | •1/8·8d | |
| R3 | 8 | MAPPED | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 | 0 | 7/17·8d | ||
| R3 | 6 | JACKPOT JACKIE | 12% | 15/2 | 6/1 | +1 | 3 | 17/18·8d | |
| R3 | 4 | AREQUIPE | 7% | 15/1 | 12/1 | +1 | 4 | 8/18·8d | |
| R3 | 1 | WARRIOR AT HEART | 4% | 25/1 | 10/1 | -3 | 5 | 14/45·6d | |
| R41 mile dirtOptional claiming $55,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pace1 flag | |||||||||
| R4 | 5 | MARIA LOUISE | 27% | 3/1 | 7/5 | -6 | 2 | 5/29·7d | |
| R4 | 4 | BOW DRAW | 21% | 4/1 | 4/1 | +5 | 1 | 5/28·11d | |
| R4 | 2 | GOLDEN IRISH | 13% | 7/1 | 12/1 | +7 | 3 | 4/12·8d | |
| R4 | 7 | DONOR ADVISED | 13% | 7/1 | 3/1 | -7 | 6 | 12/66·8d | |
| R4 | 6 | TRUSTY TROUTMAN | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 | +2 | 4 | 3/8·8d | |
| R4 | 3 | FIRE MOON | 9% | 11/1 | 6/1 | -3 | 7 | W | •1/33·9d |
| R4 | 1 | RAGHBA | 8% | 11/1 | 12/1 | +2 | 5 | 14/38·7d | |
| R55 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightLone speedpass | |||||||||
| R5 | 6 | D'MUEHL | 21% | 7/2 | 2/1 | -5 | 1 | B | 6/14·9d |
| R5 | 7 | ANNOTATE | 17% | 5/1 | 5/1 | +4 | 2 | ▲ | 1/1·6d |
| R5 | 10 | STELLABRATION | 14% | 13/2 | 9/2 | -1 | W | •1/21·7d | |
| R5 | 3 | SUN KISSED BLISS | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | 3/12·7d | ||
| R5 | 9 | MCLIGHT | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | 14/53·7d | ||
| R5 | 8 | BANKTHEMONEYHONEY | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 0 | 3 | 6/7·25d | |
| R5 | 1 | FANTASY FORTUNE | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 2/5·7d | ||
| R5 | 5 | WHITE STAR | 6% | 15/1 | 20/1 | +2 | 4 | 1/1·6d | |
| R5 | 4 | BUCCHERITA | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 | +1 | 5 | 3/6·8d | |
| R5 | 2 | CARA'S CHROME | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 2/7·6d | ||
| R61 1/16 miles turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R6 | 5 | FAVE | 17% | 9/2 | 7/2 | 0 | 12/115·7d | ||
| R6 | 2 | WELCOME ROAD | 16% | 5/1 | 4/1 | +1 | BW | 3/32·8d | |
| R6 | 11 | GOLDEN MAIDEN | 13% | 7/1 | 5/1 | 0 | W | 2/22·8d | |
| R6 | 9 | MIOS | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | 6/32·5d | ||
| R6 | 6 | SEISMIC ACTIVITY | 8% | 11/1 | 12/1 | +2 | 1 | 9/45·7d | |
| R6 | 3 | HIGH TIDE HONEY | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | B | 10/13·7d | |
| R6 | 10 | CREAM OF THE CROP | 7% | 12/1 | 12/1 | +1 | 2 | 9/16·35d | |
| R6 | 1 | SARATOGA LAKE | 4% | 20/1 | 12/1 | -1 | 4 | 20/151·28d | |
| R6 | 4 | COURSIERE | 4% | 25/1 | 15/1 | -1 | 3 | B | 16/24·8d |
| R6 | 7 | MARGRETFRANCES | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 12/17·9d | ||
| R6 | 12 | CIAO BABY | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 1/1·7d | ||
| R6 | 8 | MC CRUISER | 4% | 25/1 | 15/1 | -1 | 5 | B | •1/9·7d |
| R77 furlongs dirtClaiming $20,000, non-winners of three lifetimeContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass | |||||||||
| R7 | 1 | BRUNCH WITH AMY | 26% | 3/1 | 7/5 | -6 | 1 | B | 5/7·25d |
| R7 | 3 | DONNA ROMANO | 15% | 6/1 | 6/1 | +4 | 2 | B | 4/14·9d |
| R7 | 7 | BELLE CHERIE | 14% | 6/1 | 5/1 | +1 | 3 | ▲B | 44/115·7d |
| R7 | 9 | POCKET QUEENS | 9% | 10/1 | 12/1 | +3 | 4 | ▲ | 26/36·4d |
| R7 | 5 | SCARLET'S DREAM | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 | -1 | 6 | 1/2·12d | |
| R7 | 4 | BOBBY JEAN | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 0 | 5 | 21/32·4d | |
| R7 | 6 | OSCAR BOUND | 6% | 15/1 | 8/1 | -2 | 7 | ▼ | 4/48·28d |
| R7 | 2 | CARARRA | 6% | 15/1 | 15/1 | +1 | 8 | ▲B | 7/11·4d |
| R7 | 10 | CARADISE | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 | +1 | 10 | B | 4/14·29d |
| R7 | 11 | THAT'STHEFACTJACK | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 11 | •1/4·5d | |
| R7 | 8 | MOONLIT WEEKEND | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 | +1 | 9 | ▼B | 47/126·8d |
| R86 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)1 flag | |||||||||
| R8 | 10 | MODEST MACLEAN | 28% | 5/2 | 5/2 | +6 | 1 | ▲B | 5/138·35d |
| R8 | 1 | KARSTEN | 12% | 7/1 | 6/1 | +1 | 3 | ▼W | 3/63·7d |
| R8 | 2 | ISTHEREANORMALWIFE | 12% | 15/2 | 7/2 | -5 | 4 | ▼ | 4/18·8d |
| R8 | 8 | BOSSOFEVERYTHING | 12% | 15/2 | 5/1 | -1 | 2 | ▼B | 16/34·9d |
| R8 | 3 | TAP RULES | 12% | 15/2 | 6/1 | 0 | BW | •1/11·8d | |
| R8 | 6 | HIGH LEVERAGE | 8% | 11/1 | 10/1 | +1 | 5 | ▲W | •1/11·7d |
| R8 | 5 | GALICAT | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 0 | 6/9·7d | ||
| R8 | 4 | HAPPY GO MORE | 4% | 25/1 | 15/1 | -1 | 6 | W | •1/102·10d |
| R8 | 9 | MY MUNNY TALKS | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | -1 | 7 | ▼B | 3/19·8d |
| R8 | 7 | THESPIAN | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | 0 | 8 | B | 3/4·4d |
| R91 1/16 miles turfStakes, $200,000 purseContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag | |||||||||
| R9 | 9 | AWESOME CZECH | 22% | 7/2 | 2/1 | -4 | 2 | W | 7/151·7d |
| R9 | 1 | MIDNIGHT CONCERTO | 22% | 7/2 | 4/1 | +6 | 1 | ▲ | •1/6·5d |
| R9 | 3 | BERNIETAKESCHARGE | 11% | 8/1 | 8/1 | +2 | 3 | ▼B | 4/37·6d |
| R9 | 8 | SAIL WITH THE WIND | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 | -1 | 5 | 7/61·7d | |
| R9 | 4 | BEING BETTY | 9% | 10/1 | 6/1 | -2 | 7 | ▲ | 8/9·9d |
| R9 | 7 | BROKEALLTHERULES | 9% | 10/1 | 10/1 | +2 | 4 | 20/28·12d | |
| R9 | 5 | SPINNING COLORS | 8% | 12/1 | 8/1 | -1 | 6 | ▼B | 12/23·38d |
| R9 | 6 | COSMIC CANDY GIRL | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | -2 | 8 | BW | 51/55·15d |
| R9 | 2 | MARVELOUS MADISON | 4% | 25/1 | 15/1 | -1 | 9 | 8/12·7d | |
| R101 mile turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R10 | 8 | MISS TWITTER | 25% | 3/1 | 5/2 | +3 | 1 | BW | •1/141·9d |
| R10 | 7 | INDOMIKNOW | 14% | 6/1 | 9/2 | 0 | W | 3/65·9d | |
| R10 | 4 | PORTIXOL | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | BW | 3/78·6d | |
| R10 | 5 | MAJESTIC MOONLIGHT | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | 2 | 2/6·8d | |
| R10 | 10 | LEGAL SQUEEZE | 9% | 10/1 | 6/1 | -2 | 3 | 4/6·9d | |
| R10 | 1 | DELTA CODE | 9% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 5/10·8d | ||
| R10 | 2 | PEPPERMINT TWIST | 9% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 7/12·9d | ||
| R10 | 3 | GOOD GHOST | 7% | 15/1 | 10/1 | 0 | B | 6/23·16d | |
| R10 | 6 | NO DIFFERENCE | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | 4 | B | •1/9·4d |
| R10 | 9 | ONE BAD HABIT | 1% | 99/1 | 50/1 | -1 | 5 | B | 8/26·21d |
Rank is our power-figure blend, 1 is best. Why reads left to right: whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, and BLANK means we have nothing to say, so only rows with signal carry a mark. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.
Price your own ticket
The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 10 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.
The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet
R2Chalk5Tiger Twenty Four35%9/54/5
How it sets up
Go forward3
Pace helps156
The board and our number agree in a $55,000 claimer. Three of them want the lead. We make the favourite, #5 TIGER TWENTY FOUR, 35% against the board's 44%, shorter than we think it should be. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | TIGER TWENTY FOUR | 35% | 9/5 | 4/5 | 1/2·10d |
| 6 | PERFECT FORCE | 17% | 9/2 | 3/1 | 7/11·13d |
| 3 | MOMENTUM FILES | 13% | 7/1 | 6/1 | 5/151·8d |
| 7 | CELESTIAL GLAZE | 11% | 8/1 | 8/1 | •1/26·3d |
| 1 | TRIPP'S PROMISE | 11% | 8/1 | 10/1 | 14/58·49d |
| 2 | SHARE THE LUDT | 7% | 15/1 | 15/1 | •1/14·24d |
| 4 | GYPSY DREAMING | 6% | 15/1 | 15/1 | •1/111·10d |
R3Chalk2Kipros20%4/15/2
How it sets up
The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 20% against the board's 22%.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | KIPROS | 20% | 4/1 | 5/2 | 2/49·6d |
| 7 | TICKET TO FAME | 15% | 11/2 | 4/1 | •1/23·6d |
| 3 | HETCH HETCHY | 15% | 6/1 | 9/2 | •1/4·9d |
| 5 | GENEVA LAKE | 14% | 6/1 | 6/1 | •1/8·8d |
| 8 | MAPPED | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 | 7/17·8d |
| 6 | JACKPOT JACKIE | 12% | 15/2 | 6/1 | 17/18·8d |
| 4 | AREQUIPE | 7% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 8/18·8d |
| 1 | WARRIOR AT HEART | 4% | 25/1 | 10/1 | 14/45·6d |
R5Chalk6D'Muehl21%7/22/1
How it sets up
Alone on the lead7
The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. One horse looks alone on the lead, which our pace adjustment credits. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | D'MUEHL | 21% | 7/2 | 2/1 | 6/14·9d |
| 7 | ANNOTATE | 17% | 5/1 | 5/1 | 1/1·6d |
| 10 | STELLABRATION | 14% | 13/2 | 9/2 | •1/21·7d |
| 3 | SUN KISSED BLISS | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 3/12·7d |
| 9 | MCLIGHT | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 14/53·7d |
| 8 | BANKTHEMONEYHONEY | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 6/7·25d |
| 1 | FANTASY FORTUNE | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 2/5·7d |
| 5 | WHITE STAR | 6% | 15/1 | 20/1 | 1/1·6d |
| 4 | BUCCHERITA | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 | 3/6·8d |
| 2 | CARA'S CHROME | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 2/7·6d |
R6Scramble5Fave17%9/27/2
How it sets up
A full field of twelve. Nothing separates the top two by more than 1.3 points. We make the top one 17% against the board's 17%.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | FAVE | 17% | 9/2 | 7/2 | 12/115·7d |
| 2 | WELCOME ROAD | 16% | 5/1 | 4/1 | 3/32·8d |
| 11 | GOLDEN MAIDEN | 13% | 7/1 | 5/1 | 2/22·8d |
| 9 | MIOS | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 6/32·5d |
| 6 | SEISMIC ACTIVITY | 8% | 11/1 | 12/1 | 9/45·7d |
| 3 | HIGH TIDE HONEY | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 10/13·7d |
| 10 | CREAM OF THE CROP | 7% | 12/1 | 12/1 | 9/16·35d |
| 1 | SARATOGA LAKE | 4% | 20/1 | 12/1 | 20/151·28d |
| 4 | COURSIERE | 4% | 25/1 | 15/1 | 16/24·8d |
| 7 | MARGRETFRANCES | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 12/17·9d |
| 12 | CIAO BABY | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 1/1·7d |
| 8 | MC CRUISER | 4% | 25/1 | 15/1 | •1/9·7d |
R7Chalk1Brunch With Amy26%3/17/5
How it sets up
Go forward68
Pace helps279
The board and our number agree in a $20,000 claimer. Three of them want the lead. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field. We make the favourite, #1 BRUNCH WITH AMY, 26% against the board's 32%, shorter than we think it should be. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BRUNCH WITH AMY | 26% | 3/1 | 7/5 | 5/7·25d |
| 3 | DONNA ROMANO | 15% | 6/1 | 6/1 | 4/14·9d |
| 7 | BELLE CHERIE | 14% | 6/1 | 5/1 | 44/115·7d |
| 9 | POCKET QUEENS | 9% | 10/1 | 12/1 | 26/36·4d |
| 5 | SCARLET'S DREAM | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 | 1/2·12d |
| 4 | BOBBY JEAN | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 21/32·4d |
| 6 | OSCAR BOUND | 6% | 15/1 | 8/1 | 4/48·28d |
| 2 | CARARRA | 6% | 15/1 | 15/1 | 7/11·4d |
| 10 | CARADISE | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 | 4/14·29d |
| 11 | THAT'STHEFACTJACK | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | •1/4·5d |
| 8 | MOONLIT WEEKEND | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 | 47/126·8d |
R10Lean8Miss Twitter25%3/15/2
How it sets up
Our top-rated horse in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 25% against the board's 22%. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | MISS TWITTER | 25% | 3/1 | 5/2 | •1/141·9d |
| 7 | INDOMIKNOW | 14% | 6/1 | 9/2 | 3/65·9d |
| 4 | PORTIXOL | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 3/78·6d |
| 5 | MAJESTIC MOONLIGHT | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 2/6·8d |
| 10 | LEGAL SQUEEZE | 9% | 10/1 | 6/1 | 4/6·9d |
| 1 | DELTA CODE | 9% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 5/10·8d |
| 2 | PEPPERMINT TWIST | 9% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 7/12·9d |
| 3 | GOOD GHOST | 7% | 15/1 | 10/1 | 6/23·16d |
| 6 | NO DIFFERENCE | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | •1/9·4d |
| 9 | ONE BAD HABIT | 1% | 99/1 | 50/1 | 8/26·21d |
Public record49–134flags, W–L-34.2uflat-$2-9.3%flat-bet ROI, n=183-34% to +17%95% range, read this oneevery call hash-stamped before post →
We lose most single flags. That’s expected. The edge is price: when we’re right, the board paid more than fair. Our 30% picks win about 30% (see the calibration curve), and every call is graded against the closing odds, wins and losses.
No set price. On the tote you’re paid the closing odds, so the edge isn’t a line you beat early. It’s the gap between our fair number and where the crowd lands. We grade each flag against the actual close.
Our last miss: SAR R14 New Rose, flagged at 12/1, didn’t win, and it is on the record like every call.
Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code e29d65e9 · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 6a3942fb25f8… · Scratch status checked at 11:20 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.
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