Del Mar, Sun Aug 30, 2026
10 races · published 11:22 AM ET · card locked
3 value plays today · 7 races we're passing
Edge of the Day
3CHISELED IN STONE
Race 2 · 5 furlongs turf
36%model9/5fair5/2boardWINpaid at the close
Our biggest edge on the card today (+14 pts over the board), the price may move either way into post; you’re paid the close. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.
Today at Del MarPatchy Fog then Sunny, 80°F, wind 5 to 10 mph · rain 1%, no off-track flagNWS forecast
Also on TwinSpires
Bet these plays at TwinSpiresToday’s card runs on TwinSpires as Edge Card Plays. Edge Card is an independent publication and is not a TwinSpires product; the plays and the record are the same ones published here.
Flags 3 of 10 races
New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.
Today’s plays3 flags
RaceHorseModelBoardEdge
R23Chiseled In Stone36%5/2+14 ptsR75Mohaven26%7/2+8 ptsR109Call Me Sir18%5/1+5 ptsPrice may move All 3 flags today. A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.
FlagShare
3CHISELED IN STONE
Model
Fair
Board
36%
9/5
5/2
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
Price may move
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend; projects as the lone early speed.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Alone on the lead3
One of the 10 looks alone on the lead, clear of the field on the early figures over five furlongs on turf, with nothing else in here entitled to go with it.
The model’s read ▾
This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.
It tops our own win number, 23.8 points clear of the next one, in a race where one of them looks like getting loose on the lead.
In a field of 10 it profiles as the lone speed over five furlongs on turf, likely uncontested on the front end, and we bumped it for that (×1.15).
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | CHISELED IN STONE ◀ | 36% | 9/5 | 5/2 | 5/15·9d |
| 2 | BEL AIR BLINTZCESS | 13% | 7/1 | 5/1 | 2/38·6d |
| 7 | BOTTLED IN BOND | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | •1/4·2d |
| 1 | FIRST TIME LISTING | 11% | 8/1 | 4/1 | 14/42·29d |
| 5 | LIL PRINCE CAIRO | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | •1/4·2d |
| 8 | RED RAIDER | 5% | 20/1 | 8/1 | 25/56·14d |
| 6 | HALLAGREY | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | 22/116·8d |
| 4 | SMOKE RIDER | 4% | 20/1 | 12/1 | 6/7·7d |
| 9 | ANGELS REVENGE | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | •1/11·9d |
| 10 | HIGH HULL GILL | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | •1/33·8d |
FlagShare
5MOHAVEN
Model
Fair
Board
26%
3/1
7/2
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
Price may move
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Barn angle strong here
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
No one horse is entitled to the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.
It tops our own win number, 2.8 points clear of the next one.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | MOHAVEN ◀ | 26% | 3/1 | 7/2 | 7/60·8d |
| 2 | SHE'S NO QUANT | 23% | 7/2 | 3/1 | 1/3·8d |
| 3 | RABEEBA | 22% | 7/2 | 8/5 | 3/40·15d |
| 1 | BANK SHOT | 9% | 10/1 | 10/1 | 2/77·8d |
| 6 | KINZLEE'SCHARISMA | 8% | 12/1 | 8/1 | •1/10·5d |
| 7 | WOLF HILL | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 | 8/76·21d |
| 4 | CHANNEL PLACE | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | 7/89·8d |
FlagShare
9CALL ME SIR
Model
Fair
Board
18%
9/2
5/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
Price may move
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Alone on the lead7
One of the 12 looks alone on the lead, clear of the field on the early figures over a mile on turf, with nothing else in here entitled to go with it.
The model’s read ▾
It rates second on our own win number, 1.2 points behind the top, in a race where one of them looks like getting loose on the lead.
In a field of 12 it profiles as the lone speed over a mile on turf, likely alone on the lead.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIDWAY LANE | 19% | 4/1 | 3/1 | 4/120·15d |
| 9 | CALL ME SIR ◀ | 18% | 9/2 | 5/1 | 20/55·14d |
| 5 | BEYOND STOKED | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 | 30/93·21d |
| 4 | BURNING RUBBER | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 7/60·14d |
| 11 | JOEJOE GO | 9% | 11/1 | 6/1 | 16/67·14d |
| 7 | HOTHEAD | 9% | 11/1 | 12/1 | 11/17·15d |
| 10 | HENRY ADAMS | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 | •1/45·6d |
| 8 | DYNODAVE | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 1/3·8d |
| 6 | UNPRETENTIOUS | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 4/6·8d |
| 2 | TRIBAL | 4% | 25/1 | 12/1 | 2/6·11d |
| 13 | KEEP DANCIN NICK | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | •1/4·17d |
| 12 | KIMMER | 1% | 99/1 | 30/1 | •1/13·8d |
What to know about each race today
R17 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $50,000
- 2Cruisin For Caliwent off at 2/1 last time and finished 5th · Tiago Pereira back aboard, a winner on this horse four starts back · claimed last time out · blinkers off
R25 furlongs turfMaiden special weight
- 4Smoke Riderfirst start on turf · bottom third of this field on turf breeding
- 8Red Raiderfirst start on turf · bottom third of this field on turf breeding
R36 furlongs dirtClaiming $12,500
4 of the 9 were claimed last time out
- 7Fun To Runfirst start in over a year
R41 mile turfOptional claiming $80,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starter
- 2Liberationfirst start on turf · Juan J Hernandez back aboard, a winner on this horse two starts back · first-time Lasix
- 3Miss Donnafirst start in 7 months
- 5Waiting For Youblinkers on
R56 furlongs dirtMaiden special weight
- 1Not So Merry Maryfirst start on dirt
- 6Take Revengeblinkers on
- 7Thirsty Elusivefirst start on dirt
- 8Her Strutblinkers on
R65 furlongs turfClaiming $32,000
5 of the 11 were claimed last time out
- 6Tygrafirst start in 7 months · new barn since the last start, now with Francisco Rodriguez
- 10One Of These Daysfirst start under a mile · top third of this field on breeding for the trip
- 3Alphabetical OrderRicardo S Ramirez back aboard, a winner on this horse five starts back
R71 mile dirtGrade 3 stakes
- 2She's No Quantfirst start at a mile or longer
R81 mile turfMaiden special weight
- 5Platinum Groovefirst start at a mile or longer
- 7Zuzu's Classic Galfirst start at a mile or longer
R91 mile dirtOptional claiming $100,000
- 4Arrowthegreatfirst start in over a year · Armando Ayuso back aboard, a winner on this horse two starts back
- 3War At Seafirst start on dirt
- 5The Goatfirst-time Lasix
- 6Lyell's Songfirst start in 12 months
- 7Privmanfirst start in 10 months
R101 mile turfOptional claiming $50,000
- 7Hotheadfirst start at a mile or longer · bottom third of this field on breeding for the trip · blinkers off
- 6Unpretentiousfirst start on turf · bottom third of this field on turf breeding
- 5Beyond Stokedclaimed last time out
- 10Henry Adamsclaimed last time out
Facts about the race, not predictions. A class move is shown with the finish it came off so you can judge it; we do not claim any of these wins, and only the flagged win bets above are graded on the record.
The whole card every runner, our number beside the board
| R | # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Edge | Rank | Why | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R17 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $50,000Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass | |||||||||
| R1 | 1 | HOWIE'S LAW | 36% | 9/5 | 4/5 | -9 | 1 | ▼ | •1/38·53d |
| R1 | 5 | FUMANO'S MAGIC | 18% | 9/2 | 5/1 | +4 | 2 | ▲ | 1/1·20d |
| R1 | 2 | CRUISIN FOR CALI | 13% | 7/1 | 6/1 | +1 | 4 | 8/35·9d | |
| R1 | 6 | HERE'S SOME MORE | 12% | 15/2 | 12/1 | +6 | 3 | 5/6·8d | |
| R1 | 4 | LETMEIN | 12% | 15/2 | 8/1 | +3 | 5 | ▲ | 14/54·8d |
| R1 | 3 | KID CHARLEMAGNE | 10% | 9/1 | 4/1 | -6 | 6 | W | 3/58·9d |
| R25 furlongs turfMaiden special weightLone speed1 flag | |||||||||
| R2 | 3 | CHISELED IN STONE | 36% | 9/5 | 5/2 | +14 | 1 | ▲ | 5/15·9d |
| R2 | 2 | BEL AIR BLINTZCESS | 13% | 7/1 | 5/1 | -1 | W | 2/38·6d | |
| R2 | 7 | BOTTLED IN BOND | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | B | •1/4·2d | |
| R2 | 1 | FIRST TIME LISTING | 11% | 8/1 | 4/1 | -5 | 2 | 14/42·29d | |
| R2 | 5 | LIL PRINCE CAIRO | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | B | •1/4·2d | |
| R2 | 8 | RED RAIDER | 5% | 20/1 | 8/1 | -4 | 5 | B | 25/56·14d |
| R2 | 6 | HALLAGREY | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | -2 | 4 | 22/116·8d | |
| R2 | 4 | SMOKE RIDER | 4% | 20/1 | 12/1 | -2 | 3 | B | 6/7·7d |
| R2 | 9 | ANGELS REVENGE | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | 0 | BW | •1/11·9d | |
| R2 | 10 | HIGH HULL GILL | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | 0 | BW | •1/33·8d | |
| R36 furlongs dirtClaiming $12,500Contested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass | |||||||||
| R3 | 8 | MIZ CLUBCALI | 17% | 5/1 | 3/1 | -3 | 1 | 9/22·8d | |
| R3 | 1 | CHASING KAT | 16% | 11/2 | 5/1 | +2 | 2 | ▼B | 1/1·21d |
| R3 | 4 | HARNEY LANE | 14% | 6/1 | 6/1 | +3 | 3 | ▲ | 80/80·8d |
| R3 | 3 | LADY GREGORY | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 | 0 | 5 | 21/42·13d | |
| R3 | 6 | RO TOWN | 13% | 7/1 | 7/2 | -5 | 6 | 8/20·8d | |
| R3 | 2 | DANZING FLYER | 12% | 7/1 | 8/1 | +3 | 4 | 5/17·14d | |
| R3 | 9 | GIANT KID | 8% | 12/1 | 12/1 | +2 | 7 | 14/27·7d | |
| R3 | 7 | FUN TO RUN | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | -1 | 8 | B | 3/16·11d |
| R3 | 5 | SEXY BLUE | 2% | 50/1 | 20/1 | -1 | 9 | ▼B | 5/6·16d |
| R41 mile turfOptional claiming $80,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R4 | 4 | CORTINA D'AMPREZZO | 24% | 3/1 | 3/1 | +4 | 1 | W | •1/20·7d |
| R4 | 2 | LIBERATION | 19% | 9/2 | 4/1 | +3 | 2 | W | 2/45·7d |
| R4 | 6 | RUN WITH LIBERTY | 14% | 13/2 | 7/2 | -4 | 4 | 15/17·8d | |
| R4 | 7 | STRUCK BY HER | 12% | 15/2 | 6/1 | 0 | 3 | 5/14·7d | |
| R4 | 8 | MIA FAMILIA | 12% | 15/2 | 5/1 | -2 | 5 | W | 2/28·7d |
| R4 | 1 | FULL MOON TONIGHT | 9% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 6 | 3/9·28d | |
| R4 | 5 | WAITING FOR YOU | 8% | 12/1 | 10/1 | +1 | 7 | 3/6·10d | |
| R4 | 3 | MISS DONNA | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 | -2 | 8 | •1/8·8d | |
| R56 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R5 | 9 | SONO VELOCE | 15% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 0 | 1/2·9d | ||
| R5 | 8 | HER STRUT | 14% | 13/2 | 7/2 | -4 | 3 | 2/11·29d | |
| R5 | 1 | NOT SO MERRY MARY | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 | 0 | 2 | 12/76·29d | |
| R5 | 3 | SAUCED UP | 13% | 7/1 | 8/1 | +4 | 1 | 5/89·29d | |
| R5 | 6 | TAKE REVENGE | 12% | 15/2 | 5/1 | -1 | 4 | B | 8/56·10d |
| R5 | 5 | BEAUTIFUL DAWN | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | W | 2/30·14d | |
| R5 | 10 | I'M SMOKEN HOT | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 5 | 25/95·8d | |
| R5 | 11 | PAVULAR | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 19/37·14d | ||
| R5 | 2 | RUNAROUND SUE | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 19/54·14d | ||
| R5 | 7 | THIRSTY ELUSIVE | 4% | 25/1 | 30/1 | +1 | 6 | B | 2/18·24d |
| R65 furlongs turfClaiming $32,000Contested pace likely (8 early-speed types)pass | |||||||||
| R6 | 9 | CODE DUELLO | 24% | 3/1 | 5/2 | +2 | 1 | •1/20·29d | |
| R6 | 5 | OTTO THE CONQUEROR | 13% | 13/2 | 6/1 | +2 | 4 | ▲W | •1/35·16d |
| R6 | 4 | DANIEL'S MAGIC | 13% | 7/1 | 5/1 | 0 | 3 | 8/27·6d | |
| R6 | 7 | GAZON | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | 2 | ▼BW | 3/64·8d |
| R6 | 8 | GREGORY'S PRIDE | 9% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 6 | ▲W | •1/29·8d |
| R6 | 11 | REGAL PATRIOT | 8% | 11/1 | 6/1 | -3 | 5 | ▼ | 7/20·29d |
| R6 | 2 | HARCYN | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 | -1 | 7 | ▲BW | •1/14·8d |
| R6 | 1 | AGENCY | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 9 | •1/16·29d | |
| R6 | 3 | ALPHABETICAL ORDER | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 | +1 | 8 | ▼ | 1/3·5d |
| R6 | 10 | ONE OF THESE DAYS | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | -1 | 10 | W | •1/17·6d |
| R6 | 6 | TYGRA | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | -1 | 11 | ▼ | •1/9·10d |
| R71 mile dirtGrade 3 stakesEven pace1 flag | |||||||||
| R7 | 5 | MOHAVEN | 26% | 3/1 | 7/2 | +8 | 1 | B | 7/60·8d |
| R7 | 2 | SHE'S NO QUANT | 23% | 7/2 | 3/1 | +3 | 2 | 1/3·8d | |
| R7 | 3 | RABEEBA | 22% | 7/2 | 8/5 | -9 | 3 | BW | 3/40·15d |
| R7 | 1 | BANK SHOT | 9% | 10/1 | 10/1 | +2 | 4 | BW | 2/77·8d |
| R7 | 6 | KINZLEE'SCHARISMA | 8% | 12/1 | 8/1 | -1 | 5 | BW | •1/10·5d |
| R7 | 7 | WOLF HILL | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 | -2 | 6 | 8/76·21d | |
| R7 | 4 | CHANNEL PLACE | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | -2 | 7 | W | 7/89·8d |
| R81 mile turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R8 | 7 | ZUZU'S CLASSIC GAL | 18% | 9/2 | 5/1 | +5 | 1 | B | 34/62·14d |
| R8 | 4 | MARLA HOOCH | 16% | 5/1 | 5/1 | +4 | 2 | 6/11·6d | |
| R8 | 9 | IMPRESSIONISTIC | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 | 0 | 3 | 3/10·8d | |
| R8 | 6 | JANZ JOY | 13% | 7/1 | 7/2 | -5 | 5 | 17/27·8d | |
| R8 | 8 | DRULINER | 11% | 8/1 | 8/1 | +2 | 4 | 15/33·10d | |
| R8 | 10 | HELPING HAND | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 | -1 | 6 | 12/48·8d | |
| R8 | 5 | PLATINUM GROOVE | 8% | 11/1 | 6/1 | -3 | 7 | 3/29·14d | |
| R8 | 1 | FIRST LIGHT | 6% | 15/1 | 8/1 | -3 | 8 | W | •1/105·14d |
| R8 | 2 | CLUBHOUSE DEB | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 | +1 | 9 | 15/64·6d | |
| R8 | 3 | UNUSUALEXIS | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 | 0 | 10 | 9/26·9d | |
| R91 mile dirtOptional claiming $100,000Contested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass | |||||||||
| R9 | 7 | PRIVMAN | 19% | 4/1 | 3/1 | -1 | 2 | ▲BW | •1/48·8d |
| R9 | 9 | MIRAHMADI | 17% | 5/1 | 7/2 | -1 | 1 | ▼BW | •1/48·8d |
| R9 | 8 | INDISPENSABLE | 12% | 15/2 | 6/1 | 0 | 4 | ▲W | 4/54·15d |
| R9 | 6 | LYELL'S SONG | 11% | 8/1 | 5/1 | -2 | 6 | 2/2·6d | |
| R9 | 5 | THE GOAT | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | -1 | 3 | ▼W | •1/54·15d |
| R9 | 1 | MIDNIGHT MAMMOTH | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 7 | W | 5/76·6d |
| R9 | 4 | ARROWTHEGREAT | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 8 | ▲ | •1/4·14d |
| R9 | 3 | WAR AT SEA | 8% | 11/1 | 15/1 | +3 | 5 | W | 4/44·13d |
| R9 | 2 | MOMAD | 4% | 20/1 | 20/1 | +1 | 9 | B | 1/3·7d |
| R101 mile turfOptional claiming $50,000Lone speed1 flag | |||||||||
| R10 | 1 | MIDWAY LANE | 19% | 4/1 | 3/1 | 0 | 2 | W | 4/120·15d |
| R10 | 9 | CALL ME SIR | 18% | 9/2 | 5/1 | +5 | 1 | 20/55·14d | |
| R10 | 5 | BEYOND STOKED | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 | -1 | 4 | B | 30/93·21d |
| R10 | 4 | BURNING RUBBER | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | +1 | 3 | 7/60·14d | |
| R10 | 11 | JOEJOE GO | 9% | 11/1 | 6/1 | -2 | 6 | 16/67·14d | |
| R10 | 7 | HOTHEAD | 9% | 11/1 | 12/1 | +3 | 5 | ▲B | 11/17·15d |
| R10 | 10 | HENRY ADAMS | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 | -1 | 7 | W | •1/45·6d |
| R10 | 8 | DYNODAVE | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 8 | B | 1/3·8d |
| R10 | 6 | UNPRETENTIOUS | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | 9 | B | 4/6·8d |
| R10 | 2 | TRIBAL | 4% | 25/1 | 12/1 | -2 | 11 | 2/6·11d | |
| R10 | 13 | KEEP DANCIN NICK | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 10 | •1/4·17d | |
| R10 | 12 | KIMMER | 1% | 99/1 | 30/1 | -1 | 12 | W | •1/13·8d |
Rank is our power-figure blend, 1 is best. Why reads left to right: whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, and BLANK means we have nothing to say, so only rows with signal carry a mark. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.
Price your own ticket
The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 10 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.
The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet
R1Chalk1Howie's Law36%9/54/5
How it sets up
Go forward1
Pace helps45
The board and our number agree in a $50,000 optional claimer. Three of them want the lead. We make the favourite, #1 HOWIE'S LAW, 36% against the board's 44%, shorter than we think it should be. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOWIE'S LAW | 36% | 9/5 | 4/5 | •1/38·53d |
| 5 | FUMANO'S MAGIC | 18% | 9/2 | 5/1 | 1/1·20d |
| 2 | CRUISIN FOR CALI | 13% | 7/1 | 6/1 | 8/35·9d |
| 6 | HERE'S SOME MORE | 12% | 15/2 | 12/1 | 5/6·8d |
| 4 | LETMEIN | 12% | 15/2 | 8/1 | 14/54·8d |
| 3 | KID CHARLEMAGNE | 10% | 9/1 | 4/1 | 3/58·9d |
R3Scramble8Miz Clubcali17%5/13/1
How it sets up
Go forward15
Pace helps4
An open heat. Nothing separates the top two by more than 1.7 points. Four horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | MIZ CLUBCALI | 17% | 5/1 | 3/1 | 9/22·8d |
| 1 | CHASING KAT | 16% | 11/2 | 5/1 | 1/1·21d |
| 4 | HARNEY LANE | 14% | 6/1 | 6/1 | 80/80·8d |
| 3 | LADY GREGORY | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 | 21/42·13d |
| 6 | RO TOWN | 13% | 7/1 | 7/2 | 8/20·8d |
| 2 | DANZING FLYER | 12% | 7/1 | 8/1 | 5/17·14d |
| 9 | GIANT KID | 8% | 12/1 | 12/1 | 14/27·7d |
| 7 | FUN TO RUN | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | 3/16·11d |
| 5 | SEXY BLUE | 2% | 50/1 | 20/1 | 5/6·16d |
R4Lean4Cortina D'Amprezzo24%3/13/1
How it sets up
Our top-rated horse in a $80,000 allowance optional claimer. We make the top one 24% against the board's 20%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 4 points.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | CORTINA D'AMPREZZO | 24% | 3/1 | 3/1 | •1/20·7d |
| 2 | LIBERATION | 19% | 9/2 | 4/1 | 2/45·7d |
| 6 | RUN WITH LIBERTY | 14% | 13/2 | 7/2 | 15/17·8d |
| 7 | STRUCK BY HER | 12% | 15/2 | 6/1 | 5/14·7d |
| 8 | MIA FAMILIA | 12% | 15/2 | 5/1 | 2/28·7d |
| 1 | FULL MOON TONIGHT | 9% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 3/9·28d |
| 5 | WAITING FOR YOU | 8% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 3/6·10d |
| 3 | MISS DONNA | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 | •1/8·8d |
R5Scramble9Sono Veloce15%11/24/1
How it sets up
A full field of ten. Nothing separates the top two by more than 1.5 points. We make the top one 15% against the board's 16%.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SONO VELOCE | 15% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 1/2·9d |
| 8 | HER STRUT | 14% | 13/2 | 7/2 | 2/11·29d |
| 1 | NOT SO MERRY MARY | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 | 12/76·29d |
| 3 | SAUCED UP | 13% | 7/1 | 8/1 | 5/89·29d |
| 6 | TAKE REVENGE | 12% | 15/2 | 5/1 | 8/56·10d |
| 5 | BEAUTIFUL DAWN | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 2/30·14d |
| 10 | I'M SMOKEN HOT | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 25/95·8d |
| 11 | PAVULAR | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 19/37·14d |
| 2 | RUNAROUND SUE | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 19/54·14d |
| 7 | THIRSTY ELUSIVE | 4% | 25/1 | 30/1 | 2/18·24d |
R6Lean9Code Duello24%3/15/2
How it sets up
Go forward36711
Pace helps258
Our top-rated horse in a $32,000 claimer. Eight horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 2 points.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | CODE DUELLO | 24% | 3/1 | 5/2 | •1/20·29d |
| 5 | OTTO THE CONQUEROR | 13% | 13/2 | 6/1 | •1/35·16d |
| 4 | DANIEL'S MAGIC | 13% | 7/1 | 5/1 | 8/27·6d |
| 7 | GAZON | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 3/64·8d |
| 8 | GREGORY'S PRIDE | 9% | 11/1 | 8/1 | •1/29·8d |
| 11 | REGAL PATRIOT | 8% | 11/1 | 6/1 | 7/20·29d |
| 2 | HARCYN | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 | •1/14·8d |
| 1 | AGENCY | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | •1/16·29d |
| 3 | ALPHABETICAL ORDER | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 | 1/3·5d |
| 10 | ONE OF THESE DAYS | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | •1/17·6d |
| 6 | TYGRA | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | •1/9·10d |
R8Lean7Zuzu's Classic Gal18%9/25/1
How it sets up
Our top-rated horse in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 18% against the board's 13%. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 5 points.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | ZUZU'S CLASSIC GAL | 18% | 9/2 | 5/1 | 34/62·14d |
| 4 | MARLA HOOCH | 16% | 5/1 | 5/1 | 6/11·6d |
| 9 | IMPRESSIONISTIC | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 | 3/10·8d |
| 6 | JANZ JOY | 13% | 7/1 | 7/2 | 17/27·8d |
| 8 | DRULINER | 11% | 8/1 | 8/1 | 15/33·10d |
| 10 | HELPING HAND | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 | 12/48·8d |
| 5 | PLATINUM GROOVE | 8% | 11/1 | 6/1 | 3/29·14d |
| 1 | FIRST LIGHT | 6% | 15/1 | 8/1 | •1/105·14d |
| 2 | CLUBHOUSE DEB | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 | 15/64·6d |
| 3 | UNUSUALEXIS | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 | 9/26·9d |
R9Scramble7Privman19%4/13/1
How it sets up
Go forward59
Pace helps478
An open heat. Nothing separates the top two by more than 2.1 points. Four horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | PRIVMAN | 19% | 4/1 | 3/1 | •1/48·8d |
| 9 | MIRAHMADI | 17% | 5/1 | 7/2 | •1/48·8d |
| 8 | INDISPENSABLE | 12% | 15/2 | 6/1 | 4/54·15d |
| 6 | LYELL'S SONG | 11% | 8/1 | 5/1 | 2/2·6d |
| 5 | THE GOAT | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | •1/54·15d |
| 1 | MIDNIGHT MAMMOTH | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 5/76·6d |
| 4 | ARROWTHEGREAT | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | •1/4·14d |
| 3 | WAR AT SEA | 8% | 11/1 | 15/1 | 4/44·13d |
| 2 | MOMAD | 4% | 20/1 | 20/1 | 1/3·7d |
Public record49–134flags, W–L-34.2uflat-$2-9.3%flat-bet ROI, n=183-34% to +17%95% range, read this oneevery call hash-stamped before post →
We lose most single flags. That’s expected. The edge is price: when we’re right, the board paid more than fair. Our 30% picks win about 30% (see the calibration curve), and every call is graded against the closing odds, wins and losses.
No set price. On the tote you’re paid the closing odds, so the edge isn’t a line you beat early. It’s the gap between our fair number and where the crowd lands. We grade each flag against the actual close.
Our last miss: SAR R14 New Rose, flagged at 12/1, didn’t win, and it is on the record like every call.
Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code e29d65e9 · takeout (DMR) win 15.43% / exacta 22.68% · card SHA-256 ec0252482c33… · Scratch status has not yet been confirmed. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.
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