Saratoga, Sat Aug 29, 2026
14 races · published 11:19 AM ET · card locked
3 value plays today · 11 races we're passing
Edge of the Day
1NOBLE DYNASTY
Race 4 · 1 1/16 miles turf
20%model4/1fair8/1boardWINpaid at the close
Our biggest edge on the card today (+12 pts over the board), the price may move either way into post; you’re paid the close. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.
Today at SaratogaSunny, 77°F, wind 7 mph · rain 0%, no off-track flagNWS forecast
Also on TwinSpires
Bet these plays at TwinSpiresToday’s card runs on TwinSpires as Edge Card Plays. Edge Card is an independent publication and is not a TwinSpires product; the plays and the record are the same ones published here.
Flags 3 of 14 races
New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.
Today’s plays3 flags
RaceHorseModelBoardEdge
R41Noble Dynasty20%8/1+12 ptsR82Deep Flame25%3/1+5 ptsR143New Rose11%12/1+5 ptsFlagShare
1NOBLE DYNASTY
Model
Fair
Board
20%
4/1
8/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Go forward2
Pace helps157
Three of the 8 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile and a sixteenth on turf in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.
The model’s read ▾
This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.
It rates second on our own win number, 0.4 points behind the top, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.
3 of the 8 want the front over a mile and a sixteenth on turf, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | KING'S REMARK | 21% | 4/1 | 2/1 | 5/6·10d |
| 1 | NOBLE DYNASTY ◀ | 20% | 4/1 | 8/1 | •1/39·8d |
| 7 | INSTABILITY | 17% | 5/1 | 4/1 | 9/70·7d |
| 4 | 12% | 15/2 | 7/2 | 6/7·7d | |
| 8 | ALTO BLUES | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 1/2·10d |
| 3 | SOUND BITE | 7% | 15/1 | 20/1 | 3/5·10d |
| 6 | FELINE CURIOUS | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 9/72·6d |
| 2 | IRON PALACE | 6% | 15/1 | 6/1 | •1/7·6d |
FlagShare
2DEEP FLAME
Model
Fair
Board
25%
3/1
3/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
The board and our fair price round to the same number (3/1), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show, it is +5.3 points of win probability, not a longer price.
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
Likely bet down A short board price for this track, and prices this short more often shorten by post than not. Still a win play, but expect a smaller number than the board shows, because pari-mutuel pays the close. Size it smaller.
Ranks #2 in our power figure blend. Barn angle strong here
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Go forward46
Pace helps235
Six of the 6 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over seven furlongs on dirt in a Grade 1 should be contested rather than soft.
The model’s read ▾
It rates second on our own win number, 13.9 points behind the top, and with 6 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.
6 of the 6 want the front over seven furlongs on dirt, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | ENGLISHMAN | 39% | 8/5 | 3/5 | •1/5·8d |
| 2 | DEEP FLAME ◀ | 25% | 3/1 | 3/1 | 5/30·7d |
| 5 | LOCAL KNOWLEDGE | 15% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 3/29·7d |
| 3 | SOLITUDE DUDE | 15% | 6/1 | 6/1 | 19/139·7d |
| 6 | AMBERJACK | 4% | 25/1 | 30/1 | 2/54·7d |
| 1 | STICKUPWITHOUTAGUN | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | 8/16·22d |
FlagShare
3NEW ROSE
Model
Fair
Board
11%
8/1
12/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.
Ranks #2 in our power figure blend. Barn angle weak here
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Go forward78
Pace helps3410
Four of the 10 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile and a sixteenth on turf in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.
The model’s read ▾
A price play. NEW ROSE is not likely on its own, but the board has it longer than we do, and on a horse this price that is where a payout actually lives.
It rates fifth on our own win number, 10.1 points behind the top, and with 4 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.
4 of the 10 want the front over a mile and a sixteenth on turf, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | THAT'S HOW WE LOVE | 22% | 7/2 | 6/5 | •1/10·7d |
| 2 | THREE TO G | 14% | 13/2 | 6/1 | 3/35·7d |
| 10 | ALIBI | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 | 2/24·7d |
| 1 | TAX HOLIDAY | 12% | 15/2 | 9/2 | 6/13·7d |
| 3 | NEW ROSE ◀ | 11% | 8/1 | 12/1 | — |
| 9 | KILLA SALLY | 9% | 10/1 | 20/1 | •1/61·15d |
| 5 | PEOPLE WATCHING | 7% | 12/1 | 20/1 | •1/18·7d |
| 6 | MERMAID | 6% | 15/1 | 20/1 | 19/19·5d |
| 7 | ALONE TIME | 3% | 30/1 | 12/1 | •1/65·7d |
| 8 | SPARKLING MAMA | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 | 62/151·13d |
What to know about each race today
R16 furlongs dirtMaiden special weight
- 2Subjugationwent off at 5/2 last time and finished 4th
R26 furlongs dirtAllowance $120,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starter
- 8Emphasisfirst start in over a year · first-time Lasix
- 2Dr. Kapurwent off at 5/2 last time and finished 6th
R36 1/2 furlongs dirtAllowance $105,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starter
- 7Graziefirst start in 10 months · first-time Lasix
R41 1/16 miles turfOptional claiming $100,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starter
- 8Alto Bluesfirst start on turf · top third of this field on turf breeding · new barn since the last start, now with Miguel Clement · first-time Lasix
- 7Instabilitywent off at 7/5 last time and finished 7th
R51 1/16 miles turfAllowance $105,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starter
- 4Caroline St. Beatfirst-time Lasix
- 11Newlynfirst-time Lasix
R71 1/16 miles turfOptional claiming $100,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starter
- 4Samartinaup from $55,000 to $100,000 off a win · claimed last time out
- 9Counterintuitivefirst start in 10 months · first-time Lasix
- 1All Of Itwent off at 6/5 last time and finished 5th
- 3Bella KnowsManuel Franco back aboard, a winner on this horse five starts back
- 8Paige Turnerblinkers on
R87 furlongs dirtGrade 1 stakes
- 1Stickupwithoutagunclaimed last time out
R91 1/8 miles dirtGrade 1 stakes
- 5Speed ShopperJ R Velazquez back aboard, a winner on this horse three starts back
R101 mile turfGrade 2 stakes
- 9East Jabipwent off at 9/5 last time and finished 4th · new barn since the last start, now with Todd A Pletcher
- 5Naomisnew barn since the last start, now with Chad C Brown
R117 furlongs dirtGrade 1 stakes
- 3T KraftJunior Alvarado back aboard, a winner on this horse three starts back
R127 furlongs dirtGrade 1 stakes
- 2KilwinJose L Ortiz back aboard, a winner on this horse three starts back
- 3Munnings ExpressJose Lezcano back aboard, a winner on this horse four starts back
- 4Ushablinkers on
- 5Grammy GirlJ J Castellano back aboard, a winner on this horse two starts back
R131 1/4 miles dirtGrade 1 stakes
- 4The PumaJ J Castellano back aboard, a winner on this horse three starts back
- 8Baby VinoPascacio Lopez back aboard, a winner on this horse two starts back
R141 1/16 miles turfOptional claiming $100,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starter
- 2Three To Gwent off at 9/5 last time and finished 4th
- 6Mermaidclaimed last time out
Facts about the race, not predictions. A class move is shown with the finish it came off so you can judge it; we do not claim any of these wins, and only the flagged win bets above are graded on the record.
The whole card every runner, our number beside the board
| R | # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Edge | Rank | Why | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R16 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R1 | 3 | UP TO THE TASK | 23% | 7/2 | 5/2 | 0 | W | 4/131·7d | |
| R1 | 8 | MISSION INTEGRITY | 17% | 5/1 | 7/2 | 0 | •1/6·6d | ||
| R1 | 6 | BEAU VALOR | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 0 | 2/5·7d | ||
| R1 | 2 | SUBJUGATION | 15% | 11/2 | 9/2 | +1 | 1 | 3/6·5d | |
| R1 | 5 | EXHIBIT | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 0 | W | 3/40·7d | |
| R1 | 1 | ROLL WAVE | 8% | 12/1 | 8/1 | -1 | 2 | W | •1/87·6d |
| R1 | 4 | ROUGHKIN | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 0 | 4/11·9d | ||
| R1 | 7 | CLUB REIGN | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 4/9·6d | ||
| R26 furlongs dirtAllowance $120,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (5 early-speed types)pass | |||||||||
| R2 | 6 | SCULCOS FOLLY | 31% | 2/1 | 8/5 | +1 | 1 | 12/28·5d | |
| R2 | 5 | ANYWAY | 14% | 6/1 | 6/1 | +3 | 2 | ▲ | 28/115·6d |
| R2 | 1 | CALDO CANDY | 13% | 13/2 | 4/1 | -2 | 4 | ▲W | •1/23·7d |
| R2 | 2 | DR. KAPUR | 11% | 8/1 | 5/1 | -2 | 3 | ▼ | 17/151·7d |
| R2 | 7 | GUN RANGE | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 | -1 | 6 | 2/5·8d | |
| R2 | 4 | OIL CAPITAL | 9% | 10/1 | 10/1 | +2 | 5 | 3/23·22d | |
| R2 | 8 | EMPHASIS | 6% | 15/1 | 8/1 | -2 | 7 | ▼ | 3/15·7d |
| R2 | 3 | UNBROKEN CHAIN | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 | +1 | 8 | ▲B | 45/151·7d |
| R36 1/2 furlongs dirtAllowance $105,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass | |||||||||
| R3 | 2 | LIGHTNING STRIKE | 20% | 4/1 | 3/1 | +1 | 2 | ▲BW | •1/12·9d |
| R3 | 8 | LIBERTY'S SECRET | 20% | 4/1 | 5/2 | -2 | 3 | ▲W | 3/52·7d |
| R3 | 6 | K GUN | 17% | 5/1 | 5/1 | +4 | 1 | ▲ | 26/141·8d |
| R3 | 7 | GRAZIE | 10% | 9/1 | 9/2 | -4 | 4 | ▼ | 10/28·7d |
| R3 | 4 | CENTRAL TO SUCCESS | 8% | 11/1 | 10/1 | +1 | 5 | W | 3/65·7d |
| R3 | 3 | FEDUPWITHTHEFED | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 0 | 7 | W | •1/28·21d |
| R3 | 1 | DANIELLA MARIE | 7% | 12/1 | 15/1 | +2 | 6 | 1/1·5d | |
| R3 | 9 | FABIAN'S PRINCESS | 7% | 15/1 | 8/1 | -2 | 8 | ▼W | 8/120·8d |
| R3 | 5 | CLOUDY CHANCE | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 | +1 | 9 | ▼ | 10/46·29d |
| R41 1/16 miles turfOptional claiming $100,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag | |||||||||
| R4 | 5 | KING'S REMARK | 21% | 4/1 | 2/1 | -5 | 2 | ▲ | 5/6·10d |
| R4 | 1 | NOBLE DYNASTY | 20% | 4/1 | 8/1 | +12 | 1 | ▲W | •1/39·8d |
| R4 | 7 | INSTABILITY | 17% | 5/1 | 4/1 | +2 | 3 | ▲B | 9/70·7d |
| R4 | 4 | 12% | 15/2 | 7/2 | -6 | 4 | B | 6/7·7d | |
| R4 | 8 | ALTO BLUES | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | B | 1/2·10d | |
| R4 | 3 | SOUND BITE | 7% | 15/1 | 20/1 | +3 | 5 | 3/5·10d | |
| R4 | 6 | FELINE CURIOUS | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 6 | 9/72·6d | |
| R4 | 2 | IRON PALACE | 6% | 15/1 | 6/1 | -5 | 7 | ▼ | •1/7·6d |
| R51 1/16 miles turfAllowance $105,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R5 | 4 | CAROLINE ST. BEAT | 25% | 3/1 | 2/1 | -1 | 1 | 1/2·8d | |
| R5 | 5 | HONOREE | 16% | 11/2 | 6/1 | +5 | 2 | 27/50·8d | |
| R5 | 8 | SAMMY C NOTE | 13% | 13/2 | 4/1 | -2 | 3 | B | 8/24·13d |
| R5 | 9 | SIR OSCAR | 11% | 8/1 | 8/1 | +3 | 4 | 17/24·7d | |
| R5 | 3 | COACH RYAN | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 5 | 37/55·8d | |
| R5 | 10 | OAT COUTOUR | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 6 | 20/41·9d | |
| R5 | 11 | NEWLYN | 4% | 25/1 | 15/1 | -1 | 7 | 2/7·7d | |
| R5 | 6 | DREAMS OF ROME | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 9 | 29/41·9d | |
| R5 | 1 | ZAPRUDER | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 8 | BW | 2/118·20d |
| R5 | 2 | CHARLES J | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 | -2 | 10 | B | 7/60·8d |
| R5 | 7 | TWIRLING LAD | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 | -2 | 11 | 28/34·7d | |
| R66 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightLone speedpass | |||||||||
| R6 | 3 | FOXIEST | 26% | 3/1 | 2/1 | 0 | BW | 2/66·7d | |
| R6 | 10 | CRUISING AGAIN | 16% | 5/1 | 9/2 | +2 | 1 | ▲W | •1/30·12d |
| R6 | 2 | VIRABHADRASANA | 11% | 15/2 | 6/1 | 0 | 2 | •1/8·8d | |
| R6 | 1 | BADITTUDE | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 | -1 | 3 | W | 5/61·8d |
| R6 | 5 | LETTER OF CREDIT | 9% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 6/29·6d | ||
| R6 | 9 | PSALM BEAUTY | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | •1/4·5d | ||
| R6 | 6 | SAYTARA | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 0 | •1/5·7d | ||
| R6 | 8 | WHARFIE | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | W | •1/11·9d | |
| R6 | 7 | QUELLA | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | 3/10·6d | ||
| R6 | 4 | CALL ME | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | 0 | BW | •1/37·14d | |
| R71 1/16 miles turfOptional claiming $100,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R7 | 3 | BELLA KNOWS | 24% | 3/1 | 5/2 | +2 | 2 | B | 4/14·8d |
| R7 | 5 | SHELZAWA | 23% | 7/2 | 3/1 | +3 | 1 | 11/56·7d | |
| R7 | 1 | ALL OF IT | 12% | 15/2 | 8/1 | +3 | 3 | B | 2/5·16d |
| R7 | 7 | CODE | 9% | 11/1 | 10/1 | +2 | 4 | 64/120·7d | |
| R7 | 8 | PAIGE TURNER | 9% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 5 | W | •1/66·7d |
| R7 | 9 | COUNTERINTUITIVE | 8% | 11/1 | 4/1 | -7 | 8 | 9/37·6d | |
| R7 | 6 | RIVER RIDE | 7% | 15/1 | 8/1 | -2 | 7 | W | 2/72·6d |
| R7 | 2 | COSMIC CANDY GIRL | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 6 | W | 51/55·14d |
| R7 | 4 | SAMARTINA | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | -1 | 9 | B | 35/58·13d |
| R87 furlongs dirtGrade 1 stakesContested pace likely (6 early-speed types)1 flag | |||||||||
| R8 | 4 | ENGLISHMAN | 39% | 8/5 | 3/5 | -10 | 1 | ▼ | •1/5·8d |
| R8 | 2 | DEEP FLAME | 25% | 3/1 | 3/1 | +5 | 2 | ▲B | 5/30·7d |
| R8 | 5 | LOCAL KNOWLEDGE | 15% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 0 | 4 | ▲ | 3/29·7d |
| R8 | 3 | SOLITUDE DUDE | 15% | 6/1 | 6/1 | +3 | 3 | ▲ | 19/139·7d |
| R8 | 6 | AMBERJACK | 4% | 25/1 | 30/1 | +2 | 5 | ▼W | 2/54·7d |
| R8 | 1 | STICKUPWITHOUTAGUN | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | 0 | 6 | B | 8/16·22d |
| R91 1/8 miles dirtGrade 1 stakesLone speedpass | |||||||||
| R9 | 4 | SCOTTISH LASSIE | 32% | 2/1 | 7/5 | -1 | 1 | ▲W | •1/23·6d |
| R9 | 2 | FULLY SUBSCRIBED | 28% | 5/2 | 6/5 | -7 | 2 | 5/48·7d | |
| R9 | 3 | NERAZURRI | 12% | 15/2 | 6/1 | 0 | 4 | B | 2/7·10d |
| R9 | 5 | SPEED SHOPPER | 11% | 15/2 | 12/1 | +5 | 3 | W | 6/87·7d |
| R9 | 6 | SNOWYTE | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | +1 | 5 | W | •1/48·7d |
| R9 | 1 | MARGIE'S INTENTION | 7% | 12/1 | 12/1 | +1 | 6 | W | 5/69·7d |
| R101 mile turfGrade 2 stakesEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R10 | 1 | QUEEN OF HAWAII | 24% | 3/1 | 2/1 | -2 | 1 | W | •1/10·7d |
| R10 | 5 | NAOMIS | 20% | 4/1 | 3/1 | 0 | B | 5/48·6d | |
| R10 | 4 | DEEP LEARNING | 17% | 5/1 | 4/1 | +1 | 2 | 15/55·7d | |
| R10 | 8 | ULTIMATE LOVE | 13% | 13/2 | 8/1 | +4 | 3 | •1/5·5d | |
| R10 | 9 | EAST JABIP | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 | -1 | 4 | 6/52·6d | |
| R10 | 7 | NONCONSECUTIVETRMS | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 6 | 12/46·8d | |
| R10 | 2 | KOKOMOTION | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 5 | W | •1/17·6d |
| R10 | 3 | FLOWERHEAD | 4% | 25/1 | 15/1 | -1 | 7 | W | 5/6·8d |
| R10 | 6 | OSCAR BOUND | 1% | 99/1 | 30/1 | -1 | 8 | B | 4/48·27d |
| R117 furlongs dirtGrade 1 stakesContested pace likely (5 early-speed types)pass | |||||||||
| R11 | 5 | BOOK'EM DANNO | 32% | 2/1 | 1/1 | -7 | 1 | BW | •1/15·7d |
| R11 | 6 | SENIOR OFFICER | 17% | 5/1 | 7/2 | -1 | 2 | ▲B | 3/18·8d |
| R11 | 7 | BANISHING | 11% | 8/1 | 10/1 | +4 | 3 | •1/9·8d | |
| R11 | 2 | HYMN | 10% | 9/1 | 12/1 | +4 | 4 | ▲B | 2/15·7d |
| R11 | 4 | CRAZY MASON | 9% | 10/1 | 12/1 | +3 | 5 | ▲ | 5/8·7d |
| R11 | 1 | TIP TOP THOMAS | 8% | 12/1 | 5/1 | -5 | 8 | ▼ | 22/39·7d |
| R11 | 8 | BRING THE SMOKE | 7% | 15/1 | 10/1 | -1 | 7 | 24/66·7d | |
| R11 | 3 | T KRAFT | 6% | 15/1 | 20/1 | +3 | 6 | W | 2/30·5d |
| R127 furlongs dirtGrade 1 stakesLone speedpass | |||||||||
| R12 | 7 | WAYS AND MEANS | 20% | 4/1 | 9/5 | -7 | 1 | W | •1/55·7d |
| R12 | 12 | ECLATANT | 18% | 9/2 | 3/1 | -2 | 2 | W | 5/69·7d |
| R12 | 10 | R DISASTER | 12% | 15/2 | 5/1 | -1 | 3 | W | •1/62·8d |
| R12 | 8 | MAIDA | 10% | 9/1 | 10/1 | +3 | 4 | ▲W | •1/75·7d |
| R12 | 4 | USHA | 8% | 12/1 | 12/1 | +2 | 5 | W | •1/15·7d |
| R12 | 2 | KILWIN | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 | -1 | 6 | BW | •1/19·10d |
| R12 | 11 | BEAUTY REIGNS | 6% | 15/1 | 15/1 | +1 | 8 | W | •1/72·6d |
| R12 | 3 | MUNNINGS EXPRESS | 5% | 20/1 | 30/1 | +2 | 7 | •1/55·48d | |
| R12 | 1 | ECHO SOUND | 4% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | 10 | BW | •1/14·8d |
| R12 | 5 | GRAMMY GIRL | 4% | 25/1 | 30/1 | +1 | 9 | W | •1/24·6d |
| R12 | 6 | KAPPA KAPPA | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 | +1 | 11 | 19/151·13d | |
| R12 | 9 | PARADISE CITY | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 | 0 | 12 | 6/27·7d | |
| R131 1/4 miles dirtGrade 1 stakesEven pacepass | |||||||||
| R13 | 9 | GOLDEN TEMPO | 16% | 5/1 | 5/2 | -6 | 2 | W | •1/66·7d |
| R13 | 5 | RENEGADE | 13% | 13/2 | 3/1 | -6 | 5 | 10/61·7d | |
| R13 | 3 | NAPOLEON SOLO | 12% | 7/1 | 8/1 | +4 | 1 | W | •1/58·9d |
| R13 | 7 | SEA STRIKE | 10% | 9/1 | 5/1 | -3 | 9 | W | 3/66·7d |
| R13 | 1 | EMERGING MARKET | 10% | 9/1 | 15/1 | +5 | 3 | BW | 2/65·7d |
| R13 | 8 | BABY VINO | 10% | 10/1 | 10/1 | +2 | 4 | 1/2·5d | |
| R13 | 2 | LEADING CHANGE | 9% | 11/1 | 12/1 | +3 | 6 | B | 3/28·7d |
| R13 | 4 | THE PUMA | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 8 | W | •1/17·8d |
| R13 | 10 | SILENT TACTIC | 8% | 12/1 | 10/1 | +1 | 7 | 2/7·10d | |
| R13 | 6 | OCELLI | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 | +1 | 10 | 3/14·7d | |
| R141 1/16 miles turfOptional claiming $100,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)1 flag | |||||||||
| R14 | 4 | THAT'S HOW WE LOVE | 22% | 7/2 | 6/5 | -14 | 6 | ▲BW | •1/10·7d |
| R14 | 2 | THREE TO G | 14% | 13/2 | 6/1 | +3 | 1 | BW | 3/35·7d |
| R14 | 10 | ALIBI | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 | 0 | 4 | ▲W | 2/24·7d |
| R14 | 1 | TAX HOLIDAY | 12% | 15/2 | 9/2 | -2 | 5 | 6/13·7d | |
| R14 | 3 | NEW ROSE | 11% | 8/1 | 12/1 | +5 | 2 | ▲B | — |
| R14 | 9 | KILLA SALLY | 9% | 10/1 | 20/1 | +5 | 3 | W | •1/61·15d |
| R14 | 5 | PEOPLE WATCHING | 7% | 12/1 | 20/1 | +3 | 7 | W | •1/18·7d |
| R14 | 6 | MERMAID | 6% | 15/1 | 20/1 | +3 | 8 | 19/19·5d | |
| R14 | 7 | ALONE TIME | 3% | 30/1 | 12/1 | -3 | 10 | ▼W | •1/65·7d |
| R14 | 8 | SPARKLING MAMA | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 | 0 | 9 | ▼ | 62/151·13d |
Rank is our power-figure blend, 1 is best. Why reads left to right: whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, and BLANK means we have nothing to say, so only rows with signal carry a mark. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.
Price your own ticket
The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 14 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.
The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet
R1Chalk3Up To The Task23%7/25/2
How it sets up
The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 23% against the board's 22%.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | UP TO THE TASK | 23% | 7/2 | 5/2 | 4/131·7d |
| 8 | MISSION INTEGRITY | 17% | 5/1 | 7/2 | •1/6·6d |
| 6 | BEAU VALOR | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 2/5·7d |
| 2 | SUBJUGATION | 15% | 11/2 | 9/2 | 3/6·5d |
| 5 | EXHIBIT | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 3/40·7d |
| 1 | ROLL WAVE | 8% | 12/1 | 8/1 | •1/87·6d |
| 4 | ROUGHKIN | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 4/11·9d |
| 7 | CLUB REIGN | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 4/9·6d |
R2Chalk6Sculcos Folly31%2/18/5
How it sets up
Go forward28
Pace helps135
The board and our number agree in an allowance. Five horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | SCULCOS FOLLY | 31% | 2/1 | 8/5 | 12/28·5d |
| 5 | ANYWAY | 14% | 6/1 | 6/1 | 28/115·6d |
| 1 | CALDO CANDY | 13% | 13/2 | 4/1 | •1/23·7d |
| 2 | DR. KAPUR | 11% | 8/1 | 5/1 | 17/151·7d |
| 7 | GUN RANGE | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 | 2/5·8d |
| 4 | OIL CAPITAL | 9% | 10/1 | 10/1 | 3/23·22d |
| 8 | EMPHASIS | 6% | 15/1 | 8/1 | 3/15·7d |
| 3 | UNBROKEN CHAIN | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 | 45/151·7d |
R3Chalk2Lightning Strike20%4/13/1
How it sets up
Go forward579
Pace helps268
The board and our number agree in an allowance. Three of them want the lead. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | LIGHTNING STRIKE | 20% | 4/1 | 3/1 | •1/12·9d |
| 8 | LIBERTY'S SECRET | 20% | 4/1 | 5/2 | 3/52·7d |
| 6 | K GUN | 17% | 5/1 | 5/1 | 26/141·8d |
| 7 | GRAZIE | 10% | 9/1 | 9/2 | 10/28·7d |
| 4 | CENTRAL TO SUCCESS | 8% | 11/1 | 10/1 | 3/65·7d |
| 3 | FEDUPWITHTHEFED | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | •1/28·21d |
| 1 | DANIELLA MARIE | 7% | 12/1 | 15/1 | 1/1·5d |
| 9 | FABIAN'S PRINCESS | 7% | 15/1 | 8/1 | 8/120·8d |
| 5 | CLOUDY CHANCE | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 | 10/46·29d |
R5Chalk4Caroline St. Beat25%3/12/1
How it sets up
The board and our number agree in an allowance. A full field of eleven.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | CAROLINE ST. BEAT | 25% | 3/1 | 2/1 | 1/2·8d |
| 5 | HONOREE | 16% | 11/2 | 6/1 | 27/50·8d |
| 8 | SAMMY C NOTE | 13% | 13/2 | 4/1 | 8/24·13d |
| 9 | SIR OSCAR | 11% | 8/1 | 8/1 | 17/24·7d |
| 3 | COACH RYAN | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 37/55·8d |
| 10 | OAT COUTOUR | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 20/41·9d |
| 11 | NEWLYN | 4% | 25/1 | 15/1 | 2/7·7d |
| 6 | DREAMS OF ROME | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | 29/41·9d |
| 1 | ZAPRUDER | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | 2/118·20d |
| 2 | CHARLES J | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 | 7/60·8d |
| 7 | TWIRLING LAD | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 | 28/34·7d |
R6Chalk3Foxiest26%3/12/1
How it sets up
Alone on the lead10
The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. One horse looks alone on the lead, which our pace adjustment credits. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | FOXIEST | 26% | 3/1 | 2/1 | 2/66·7d |
| 10 | CRUISING AGAIN | 16% | 5/1 | 9/2 | •1/30·12d |
| 2 | VIRABHADRASANA | 11% | 15/2 | 6/1 | •1/8·8d |
| 1 | BADITTUDE | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 | 5/61·8d |
| 5 | LETTER OF CREDIT | 9% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 6/29·6d |
| 9 | PSALM BEAUTY | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | •1/4·5d |
| 6 | SAYTARA | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | •1/5·7d |
| 8 | WHARFIE | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | •1/11·9d |
| 7 | QUELLA | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 3/10·6d |
| 4 | CALL ME | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | •1/37·14d |
R7Lean3Bella Knows24%3/15/2
How it sets up
Our number likes this one in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer, though it is not the top figure. We make the top one 24% against the board's 22%. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 2 points.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | BELLA KNOWS | 24% | 3/1 | 5/2 | 4/14·8d |
| 5 | SHELZAWA | 23% | 7/2 | 3/1 | 11/56·7d |
| 1 | ALL OF IT | 12% | 15/2 | 8/1 | 2/5·16d |
| 7 | CODE | 9% | 11/1 | 10/1 | 64/120·7d |
| 8 | PAIGE TURNER | 9% | 11/1 | 8/1 | •1/66·7d |
| 9 | COUNTERINTUITIVE | 8% | 11/1 | 4/1 | 9/37·6d |
| 6 | RIVER RIDE | 7% | 15/1 | 8/1 | 2/72·6d |
| 2 | COSMIC CANDY GIRL | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 51/55·14d |
| 4 | SAMARTINA | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | 35/58·13d |
R9Chalk4Scottish Lassie32%2/17/5
How it sets up
Alone on the lead4
The board and our number agree in a Grade 1. One horse looks alone on the lead, which our pace adjustment credits. We make the favourite, #2 FULLY SUBSCRIBED, 28% against the board's 36%, shorter than we think it should be. Our own top-rated is #4 SCOTTISH LASSIE. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | SCOTTISH LASSIE | 32% | 2/1 | 7/5 | •1/23·6d |
| 2 | FULLY SUBSCRIBED | 28% | 5/2 | 6/5 | 5/48·7d |
| 3 | NERAZURRI | 12% | 15/2 | 6/1 | 2/7·10d |
| 5 | SPEED SHOPPER | 11% | 15/2 | 12/1 | 6/87·7d |
| 6 | SNOWYTE | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | •1/48·7d |
| 1 | MARGIE'S INTENTION | 7% | 12/1 | 12/1 | 5/69·7d |
R10Chalk1Queen Of Hawaii24%3/12/1
How it sets up
The board and our number agree in a Grade 2. We make the top one 24% against the board's 26%.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QUEEN OF HAWAII | 24% | 3/1 | 2/1 | •1/10·7d |
| 5 | NAOMIS | 20% | 4/1 | 3/1 | 5/48·6d |
| 4 | DEEP LEARNING | 17% | 5/1 | 4/1 | 15/55·7d |
| 8 | ULTIMATE LOVE | 13% | 13/2 | 8/1 | •1/5·5d |
| 9 | EAST JABIP | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 | 6/52·6d |
| 7 | NONCONSECUTIVETRMS | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 12/46·8d |
| 2 | KOKOMOTION | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | •1/17·6d |
| 3 | FLOWERHEAD | 4% | 25/1 | 15/1 | 5/6·8d |
| 6 | OSCAR BOUND | 1% | 99/1 | 30/1 | 4/48·27d |
R11Chalk5Book'em Danno32%2/11/1
How it sets up
Go forward1
Pace helps246
The board and our number agree in a Grade 1. Five horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field. We make the favourite, #5 BOOK'EM DANNO, 32% against the board's 39%, shorter than we think it should be. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | BOOK'EM DANNO | 32% | 2/1 | 1/1 | •1/15·7d |
| 6 | SENIOR OFFICER | 17% | 5/1 | 7/2 | 3/18·8d |
| 7 | BANISHING | 11% | 8/1 | 10/1 | •1/9·8d |
| 2 | HYMN | 10% | 9/1 | 12/1 | 2/15·7d |
| 4 | CRAZY MASON | 9% | 10/1 | 12/1 | 5/8·7d |
| 1 | TIP TOP THOMAS | 8% | 12/1 | 5/1 | 22/39·7d |
| 8 | BRING THE SMOKE | 7% | 15/1 | 10/1 | 24/66·7d |
| 3 | T KRAFT | 6% | 15/1 | 20/1 | 2/30·5d |
R12Chalk7Ways And Means20%4/19/5
How it sets up
Alone on the lead8
One horse looks alone on the lead, which our pace adjustment credits. The board and our number agree in a Grade 1. We make the favourite, #7 WAYS AND MEANS, 20% against the board's 27%, shorter than we think it should be. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | WAYS AND MEANS | 20% | 4/1 | 9/5 | •1/55·7d |
| 12 | ECLATANT | 18% | 9/2 | 3/1 | 5/69·7d |
| 10 | R DISASTER | 12% | 15/2 | 5/1 | •1/62·8d |
| 8 | MAIDA | 10% | 9/1 | 10/1 | •1/75·7d |
| 4 | USHA | 8% | 12/1 | 12/1 | •1/15·7d |
| 2 | KILWIN | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 | •1/19·10d |
| 11 | BEAUTY REIGNS | 6% | 15/1 | 15/1 | •1/72·6d |
| 3 | MUNNINGS EXPRESS | 5% | 20/1 | 30/1 | •1/55·48d |
| 1 | ECHO SOUND | 4% | 20/1 | 15/1 | •1/14·8d |
| 5 | GRAMMY GIRL | 4% | 25/1 | 30/1 | •1/24·6d |
| 6 | KAPPA KAPPA | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 | 19/151·13d |
| 9 | PARADISE CITY | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 | 6/27·7d |
R13Scramble9Golden Tempo16%5/15/2
How it sets up
A full field of ten. Nothing separates the top two by more than 2.9 points. We make the favourite, #9 GOLDEN TEMPO, 16% against the board's 22%, shorter than we think it should be. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | GOLDEN TEMPO | 16% | 5/1 | 5/2 | •1/66·7d |
| 5 | RENEGADE | 13% | 13/2 | 3/1 | 10/61·7d |
| 3 | NAPOLEON SOLO | 12% | 7/1 | 8/1 | •1/58·9d |
| 7 | SEA STRIKE | 10% | 9/1 | 5/1 | 3/66·7d |
| 1 | EMERGING MARKET | 10% | 9/1 | 15/1 | 2/65·7d |
| 8 | BABY VINO | 10% | 10/1 | 10/1 | 1/2·5d |
| 2 | LEADING CHANGE | 9% | 11/1 | 12/1 | 3/28·7d |
| 4 | THE PUMA | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | •1/17·8d |
| 10 | SILENT TACTIC | 8% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 2/7·10d |
| 6 | OCELLI | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 | 3/14·7d |
Public record48–130flags, W–L-31.4uflat-$2-8.8%flat-bet ROI, n=178-33% to +18%95% range, read this oneevery call hash-stamped before post →
We lose most single flags. That’s expected. The edge is price: when we’re right, the board paid more than fair. Our 30% picks win about 30% (see the calibration curve), and every call is graded against the closing odds, wins and losses.
No set price. On the tote you’re paid the closing odds, so the edge isn’t a line you beat early. It’s the gap between our fair number and where the crowd lands. We grade each flag against the actual close.
Our last miss: DMR R8 Just Work It Out, flagged at 8/5, didn’t win, and it is on the record like every call.
Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code e29d65e9 · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 0bf10a72f646… · Scratch status checked at 11:29 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.
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