Saratoga, Sun Aug 23, 2026

10 races · published 11:28 AM ET · card locked

4 value plays today · 6 races we're passing

StatusCompleted · races run

First post1:10 PM ET

Scratch checkChecked · 10:42 AM ET

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Sun Aug 23, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day

2ICE CHOCOLAT

Race 1 · 1 1/16 miles turf

49%model1/1fair2/1boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+23 pts over the board), the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number, so size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Today at SaratogaChance Showers And Thunderstorms, 76°F, wind 8 mph · rain 56%, off-track / soft-turf riskNWS forecast

Flags 4 of 10 races

New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.

Today’s plays4 flags

RaceHorseModelBoardEdge

R12Ice Chocolat49%2/1+23 pts R31Hot Currency42%9/5+15 pts R51Run Curtis Run31%5/2+8 pts R84Tough Street27%7/2+8 pts

Likely bet down All 4 flags today. A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Race 1 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Claiming $50,000Flag

2ICE CHOCOLAT

Model

Fair

Board

49%

1/1

2/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace7 going

No one horse is entitled to the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It tops our own win number, 33.6 points clear of the next one.

And the day matters here: rain risk (56%) on a turf race. If it comes off the grass or the course goes soft, this read can shift. We don’t price going in advance.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	ICE CHOCOLAT ◀	49%	1/1	2/1
4	BELOUNI	15%	11/2	3/1
6	PRESIDER	14%	6/1	5/2
3	SARA'S SHAMAN	6%	15/1	20/1
5	CONMAN	6%	15/1	5/1
1	CLEAR CONSCIENCE	5%	20/1	8/1
7	CLASSIC CREATION	5%	20/1	10/1

Race 3 · 6 furlongs · dirt · Optional claiming $55,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterFlag

1HOT CURRENCY

Model

Fair

Board

42%

7/5

9/5

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested3 of 7 want the lead

Go forward2467

Pace helps1

Three of the 7 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over six furlongs on dirt in a $55,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

HOT CURRENCY is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

It tops our own win number, 26.1 points clear of the next one, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

3 of the 7 want the front over six furlongs on dirt, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

And the day: rain risk (56%), watch for an off track by post, which our number doesn’t account for.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	HOT CURRENCY ◀	42%	7/5	9/5
7	TENNESSEE BELLE	16%	5/1	2/1
2	CHATTER	12%	7/1	4/1
4	VEKOMA'S DIVA	10%	9/1	5/1
3	MEG'S FOXY GREY	8%	11/1	8/1
6	TAQDEER	8%	12/1	10/1
5	MY FIRST DINAH	3%	30/1	30/1

Race 5 · 5 1/2 furlongs · turf · Optional claiming $55,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterFlag

1RUN CURTIS RUN

Model

Fair

Board

31%

5/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

The board and our fair price round to the same number (5/2), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show, it is +8.4 points of win probability, not a longer price.

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace8 going

Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

RUN CURTIS RUN is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

It tops our own win number, 10.3 points clear of the next one.

And the day matters here: rain risk (56%) on a turf race. If it comes off the grass or the course goes soft, this read can shift. We don’t price going in advance.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	RUN CURTIS RUN ◀	31%	5/2	5/2
2	TWISTED FILIGREE	20%	4/1	3/1
7	ANTARES	15%	6/1	7/2
8	BOLTAGE	13%	7/1	5/1
6	COLD FEET	7%	12/1	8/1
5	GOLD LUCK	5%	20/1	12/1
4	BILLIONAIRES ROW	5%	20/1	10/1
3	ALDER	4%	25/1	12/1

Race 8 · 1 mile · dirt · Claiming $16,000Flag

4TOUGH STREET

Model

Fair

Board

27%

5/2

7/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace8 going

Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

It tops our own win number, 11.0 points clear of the next one.

And the day: rain risk (56%), watch for an off track by post, which our number doesn’t account for.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	TOUGH STREET ◀	27%	5/2	7/2
8	PENS STREET	16%	11/2	5/1
7	KYLE'S MOM	15%	6/1	3/1
5	SUMMER FLOWER	12%	7/1	4/1
2	BOURBON SERENGETI	11%	8/1	6/1
3	ALWAYS ANGELS	10%	9/1	8/1
6	THAT'S FUNNY	6%	15/1	20/1
9	LUNA MOTH	4%	20/1	20/1

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board

Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R	#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Edge	Why
R11 1/16 miles turfClaiming $50,000Even pace1 flag
R1	2	ICE CHOCOLAT	49%	1/1	2/1	+23	1···
R1	4	BELOUNI	15%	11/2	3/1	-4	2···
R1	6	PRESIDER	14%	6/1	5/2	-8	3···
R1	3	SARA'S SHAMAN	6%	15/1	20/1	+3	4···
R1	5	CONMAN	6%	15/1	5/1	-7	7···
R1	1	CLEAR CONSCIENCE	5%	20/1	8/1	-4	6···
R1	7	CLASSIC CREATION	5%	20/1	10/1	-3	5·B·
R21 1/16 miles turfMaiden special weightLone speedpass
R2	2	AND THE RUNNER IS	34%	2/1	8/5	+4	1···
R2	1	HARBAUGH	19%	4/1	5/2	-3	2▲··
R2	8	BROADCAST	16%	11/2	4/1	0	··B·
R2	5	HYPERSCALER	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R2	3	CHIEF OF PEACE	7%	12/1	10/1	0	··B·
R2	6	OBLITERATED	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R2	4	SONGREMAINSTHESAME	4%	25/1	20/1	0	····
R2	7	BROADWAY GUY	3%	30/1	20/1	0	··B·
R36 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $55,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag
R3	1	HOT CURRENCY	42%	7/5	9/5	+15	1▲··
R3	7	TENNESSEE BELLE	16%	5/1	2/1	-10	3▼··
R3	2	CHATTER	12%	7/1	4/1	-3	2▼B·
R3	4	VEKOMA'S DIVA	10%	9/1	5/1	-3	5▼··
R3	3	MEG'S FOXY GREY	8%	11/1	8/1	0	6···
R3	6	TAQDEER	8%	12/1	10/1	+1	4▼··
R3	5	MY FIRST DINAH	3%	30/1	30/1	+1	7·B·
R41 mile dirtMaiden special weightLone speedpass
R4	6	GADGET PLAY	31%	5/2	9/5	+3	1▲··
R4	5	COMMITMENT FUND	17%	5/1	5/2	-5	3·B·
R4	4	IZE A RUNNER	17%	5/1	4/1	+1	2·B·
R4	3	SIR DUKE	10%	9/1	10/1	+3	4···
R4	2	SIDEARM	9%	10/1	10/1	+2	5·B·
R4	7	CHILI PALMER	8%	11/1	6/1	-3	6···
R4	1	VEBLEN	8%	11/1	8/1	0	····
R55 1/2 furlongs turfOptional claiming $55,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pace1 flag
R5	1	RUN CURTIS RUN	31%	5/2	5/2	+8	1···
R5	2	TWISTED FILIGREE	20%	4/1	3/1	+1	2···
R5	7	ANTARES	15%	6/1	7/2	-3	3···
R5	8	BOLTAGE	13%	7/1	5/1	0	4···
R5	6	COLD FEET	7%	12/1	8/1	-1	5···
R5	5	GOLD LUCK	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	6···
R5	4	BILLIONAIRES ROW	5%	20/1	10/1	-2	7···
R5	3	ALDER	4%	25/1	12/1	-2	8···
R67 furlongs dirtClaiming $62,500Even pacepass
R6	6	EMIRATES ROAD	19%	4/1	3/1	-1	2·B·
R6	1	TWENTY FOUR MAMBA	17%	5/1	9/2	+3	1···
R6	3	TWO EAGLES RIVER	15%	11/2	4/1	-1	3···
R6	5	REDDINGTON	14%	6/1	7/2	-3	5···
R6	7	LUNAR MODULE	12%	15/2	6/1	+1	6···
R6	2	PARADISE VALLEY	11%	8/1	12/1	+5	4···
R6	4	BARB	11%	8/1	4/1	-5	7·B·
R71 1/16 miles turfOptional claiming $45,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterLone speedpass
R7	8	BROKEALLTHERULES	22%	7/2	4/1	+6	2▲··
R7	7	MOMMY'S TURN	21%	7/2	7/2	+4	1·B·
R7	1	ALL OF IT	16%	5/1	9/2	+2	3·B·
R7	4	STARSHIP PEGASUS	14%	6/1	3/1	-6	4···
R7	3	DIVIDEND RECAP	9%	10/1	6/1	-2	5···
R7	5	SWEET ANNIVERSARY	7%	12/1	6/1	-4	7···
R7	6	SARATOGA SNOW	6%	15/1	12/1	0	6·B·
R7	2	CAN'T FOOL ME	5%	20/1	15/1	0	8·B·
R81 mile dirtClaiming $16,000Even pace1 flag
R8	4	TOUGH STREET	27%	5/2	7/2	+8	1···
R8	8	PENS STREET	16%	11/2	5/1	+2	2···
R8	7	KYLE'S MOM	15%	6/1	3/1	-6	3·B·
R8	5	SUMMER FLOWER	12%	7/1	4/1	-4	5···
R8	2	BOURBON SERENGETI	11%	8/1	6/1	-1	6···
R8	3	ALWAYS ANGELS	10%	9/1	8/1	0	4···
R8	6	THAT'S FUNNY	6%	15/1	20/1	+1	7·B·
R8	9	LUNA MOTH	4%	20/1	20/1	0	8·B·
R91 1/8 miles dirtStakes, $200,000 purseEven pacepass
R9	6	TALK TO ME JIMMY	31%	5/2	8/5	+1	1···
R9	4	ONEBIGBEAUTFULBILL	18%	9/2	3/1	-2	3·B·
R9	2	SUNDAY BOY	15%	11/2	9/2	+1	2·B·
R9	1	TRICKY BUSINESS	14%	13/2	6/1	+3	4···
R9	7	TUNING IN	10%	9/1	5/1	-3	6·B·
R9	3	MINORINCONVENIENCE	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	5···
R9	5	SOCIABLY JOHNNY	3%	30/1	20/1	-1	7···
R101 1/16 miles turfMaiden claiming $55,000Even pacepass
R10	7	FRANKLIN DELANO	22%	7/2	3/1	-1	1···
R10	1	VIVALDI	17%	5/1	9/2	0	3···
R10	4	MELODY MAN	14%	6/1	8/1	+4	2···
R10	2	VISIBLE	9%	10/1	10/1	+1	5···
R10	6	INSTANTLY	9%	11/1	10/1	0	4·B·
R10	5	CUBAN COWBOY	8%	12/1	12/1	+1	6···
R10	9	TAMARIN	7%	12/1	10/1	-1	8·B·
R10	10	ALLEY OOP	5%	20/1	20/1	+1	7·B·
R10	8	ENDERNITE	4%	25/1	15/1	-2	9·B·
R10	3	CEDERBERG	4%	25/1	12/1	-3	10···
R10	12	THATBOYAIN'TRIGHT	2%	50/1	30/1	-1	11···

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 10 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet

R2Lean2And The Runner Is34%2/18/5

How it sets up

turfLone speedone gets loose on the lead, 8 going

Alone on the lead1

Our top-rated horse in a maiden special weight. One horse looks alone on the lead, which our pace adjustment credits. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 4 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	AND THE RUNNER IS	34%	2/1	8/5
1	HARBAUGH	19%	4/1	5/2
8	BROADCAST	16%	11/2	4/1
5	HYPERSCALER	11%	8/1	6/1
3	CHIEF OF PEACE	7%	12/1	10/1
6	OBLITERATED	6%	15/1	12/1
4	SONGREMAINSTHESAME	4%	25/1	20/1
7	BROADWAY GUY	3%	30/1	20/1

R4Lean6Gadget Play31%5/29/5

How it sets up

dirtLone speedone gets loose on the lead, 7 going

Alone on the lead6

Our top-rated horse in a maiden special weight. One horse looks alone on the lead, which our pace adjustment credits. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	GADGET PLAY	31%	5/2	9/5
5	COMMITMENT FUND	17%	5/1	5/2
4	IZE A RUNNER	17%	5/1	4/1
3	SIR DUKE	10%	9/1	10/1
2	SIDEARM	9%	10/1	10/1
7	CHILI PALMER	8%	11/1	6/1
1	VEBLEN	8%	11/1	8/1

R6Scramble6Emirates Road19%4/13/1

How it sets up

dirtEven pace7 going

An open heat. Nothing separates the top two by more than 2.0 points. We make the top one 19% against the board's 20%. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	EMIRATES ROAD	19%	4/1	3/1
1	TWENTY FOUR MAMBA	17%	5/1	9/2
3	TWO EAGLES RIVER	15%	11/2	4/1
5	REDDINGTON	14%	6/1	7/2
7	LUNAR MODULE	12%	15/2	6/1
2	PARADISE VALLEY	11%	8/1	12/1
4	BARB	11%	8/1	4/1

R7Lean8Brokealltherules22%7/24/1

How it sets up

turfLone speedone gets loose on the lead, 8 going

Alone on the lead8

Our number likes this one in a $45,000 allowance optional claimer, though it is not the top figure. One horse looks alone on the lead, which our pace adjustment credits. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 6 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
8	BROKEALLTHERULES	22%	7/2	4/1
7	MOMMY'S TURN	21%	7/2	7/2
1	ALL OF IT	16%	5/1	9/2
4	STARSHIP PEGASUS	14%	6/1	3/1
3	DIVIDEND RECAP	9%	10/1	6/1
5	SWEET ANNIVERSARY	7%	12/1	6/1
6	SARATOGA SNOW	6%	15/1	12/1
2	CAN'T FOOL ME	5%	20/1	15/1

R9Chalk6Talk To Me Jimmy31%5/28/5

How it sets up

dirtEven pace7 going

The board and our number agree in a starter allowance. We make the top one 31% against the board's 30%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	TALK TO ME JIMMY	31%	5/2	8/5
4	ONEBIGBEAUTFULBILL	18%	9/2	3/1
2	SUNDAY BOY	15%	11/2	9/2
1	TRICKY BUSINESS	14%	13/2	6/1
7	TUNING IN	10%	9/1	5/1
3	MINORINCONVENIENCE	10%	9/1	8/1
5	SOCIABLY JOHNNY	3%	30/1	20/1

R10Chalk7Franklin Delano22%7/23/1

How it sets up

turfEven pace11 going

The board and our number agree in a $55,000 maiden claimer. A full field of eleven.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
7	FRANKLIN DELANO	22%	7/2	3/1
1	VIVALDI	17%	5/1	9/2
4	MELODY MAN	14%	6/1	8/1
2	VISIBLE	9%	10/1	10/1
6	INSTANTLY	9%	11/1	10/1
5	CUBAN COWBOY	8%	12/1	12/1
9	TAMARIN	7%	12/1	10/1
10	ALLEY OOP	5%	20/1	20/1
8	ENDERNITE	4%	25/1	15/1
3	CEDERBERG	4%	25/1	12/1
12	THATBOYAIN'TRIGHT	2%	50/1	30/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 07cdb408 · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 4cf82544adf7… · Scratch status checked at 10:42 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

Edge Card runs a proprietary pre-race probability process: market expectations combined with licensed past-performance, pace, field-composition and connections information, evaluated within each race. Exact implementation details are not published. Structured analysis, not a proven edge; tracked publicly either way. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash	`4cf82544adf7bce646fc6c7b37b958e69d8f6171e69765bff4e8d69ac65626b1`
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