Saratoga, Sat Aug 22, 2026

12 races · published 11:13 AM ET · card locked

4 value plays today · 8 races we're passing

StatusCompleted · races run

First post1:10 PM ET

Scratch checkChecked · 10:24 AM ET

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Sat Aug 22, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day

6SEGESTA

Race 10 · 1 1/16 miles turf

48%model6/5fair7/5boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+13 pts over the board), the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number, so size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Today at SaratogaMostly Sunny, 79°F, wind 5 mph · rain 9%, no off-track flagNWS forecast

Flags 4 of 12 races

New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.

Today’s plays4 flags

RaceHorseModelBoardEdge

R16Modest Maclean42%8/5+9 pts R99Playa Del Mar28%4/1+9 pts R106Segesta48%7/5+13 pts R126Mary Lois30%7/2+13 pts

Likely bet down All 4 flags today. A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Race 1 · 1 mile · dirt · Maiden special weightFlag

6MODEST MACLEAN

Model

Fair

Board

42%

7/5

8/5

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Barn angle strong here

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested3 of 7 want the lead

Go forward367

Pace helps28

Three of the 7 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile on dirt in a maiden special weight should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

MODEST MACLEAN is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

It tops our own win number, 21.6 points clear of the next one, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

3 of the 7 want the front over a mile on dirt, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	MODEST MACLEAN ◀	42%	7/5	8/5
7	BUBSTER	20%	4/1	2/1
8	TERM PREMIUM	19%	9/2	7/2
3	JUST TIPSY	9%	11/1	10/1
1	TEUFLESDALE	4%	20/1	15/1
2	IMPERIAL ANTHEM	4%	20/1	20/1
5	UNCLE BARRIE	2%	50/1	50/1

Race 9 · 1 mile · dirt · Allowance $120,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterFlag

9PLAYA DEL MAR

Model

Fair

Board

28%

5/2

4/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested3 of 8 want the lead

Go forward379

Pace helps610

Three of the 8 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile on dirt in an allowance should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

PLAYA DEL MAR is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

It tops our own win number, 9.3 points clear of the next one, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

3 of the 8 want the front over a mile on dirt, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
9	PLAYA DEL MAR ◀	28%	5/2	4/1
5	STIMULATE	19%	4/1	5/2
6	SILVER TALENT	14%	13/2	5/1
4	FREDDIE B	11%	8/1	6/1
3	COCKTAILSNKRINGLE	10%	9/1	15/1
1	FILOSO	6%	15/1	20/1
10	C MCGRIFF	6%	15/1	20/1
7	ENFORCED AGENDA	6%	15/1	10/1

Race 10 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Grade 2 stakesFlag

6SEGESTA

Model

Fair

Board

48%

6/5

7/5

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested3 of 7 want the lead

Pace helps167

Three of the 7 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile and a sixteenth on turf in a Grade 2 should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It tops our own win number, 34.6 points clear of the next one, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

3 of the 7 want the front over a mile and a sixteenth on turf, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	SEGESTA ◀	48%	6/5	7/5
5	AND ONE MORE TIME	13%	13/2	3/1
3	DEEP SATIN	12%	15/2	5/1
1	OZARA	11%	8/1	8/1
2	SUNLIT UPLANDS	7%	15/1	10/1
7	GRAYOSH	6%	15/1	8/1
8	LONG AGO	5%	20/1	12/1

Race 12 · 1 3/16 miles · turf · Maiden special weightFlag

6MARY LOIS

Model

Fair

Board

30%

5/2

7/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested3 of 8 want the lead

Go forward2

Pace helps568

Three of the 8 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile and three sixteenths on turf in a maiden special weight should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

MARY LOIS is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

It tops our own win number, 10.1 points clear of the next one, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

3 of the 8 want the front over a mile and three sixteenths on turf, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	MARY LOIS ◀	30%	5/2	7/2
5	SECRETLY DELIGHTED	20%	4/1	3/1
1	STAND THE RAIN	11%	8/1	9/2
8	OSMOSIS	10%	9/1	9/2
3	HOME WRECKER	10%	9/1	10/1
4	FANGO CREEK	9%	10/1	4/1
2	PRIME CONNECTION	8%	12/1	8/1
7	RIYAH AL NIL	1%	99/1	50/1

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board

Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R	#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Edge	Why
R11 mile dirtMaiden special weightContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag
R1	6	MODEST MACLEAN	42%	7/5	8/5	+9	1▼B·
R1	7	BUBSTER	20%	4/1	2/1	-9	2▼··
R1	8	TERM PREMIUM	19%	9/2	7/2	0	3▲B·
R1	3	JUST TIPSY	9%	11/1	10/1	+1	4▼··
R1	1	TEUFLESDALE	4%	20/1	15/1	-1	5·B·
R1	2	IMPERIAL ANTHEM	4%	20/1	20/1	0	6▲B·
R1	5	UNCLE BARRIE	2%	50/1	50/1	0	7·B·
R21 3/8 miles turfOptional claiming $80,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterLone speedpass
R2	4	ASBURY PARK	25%	3/1	2/1	-1	2···
R2	7	ARKHIPOV	25%	3/1	3/1	+5	1···
R2	3	MUTAAWID	17%	5/1	7/2	0	3·B·
R2	5	SARDIS	12%	15/2	6/1	+1	4·B·
R2	6	THE HIDDEN CHAMBER	10%	9/1	8/1	+2	5·B·
R2	1	ROTHSCHILD	6%	15/1	5/1	-7	6▲··
R2	2	L'IMPERATOR	5%	20/1	15/1	0	····
R36 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R3	1	POWERLINE	29%	5/2	8/5	-2	1···
R3	8	ART MUSEUM	16%	5/1	4/1	0	····
R3	9	NO TIME TO LOSE	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R3	3	GOT TOUGH	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	2···
R3	4	BARREL ROLL	9%	10/1	8/1	0	····
R3	6	AMERICAN HISTORY	7%	12/1	10/1	0	····
R3	2	LOUDEN	7%	12/1	10/1	0	····
R3	7	SHOCKED	6%	15/1	12/1	0	··B·
R3	5	PASS ON BY	5%	20/1	15/1	0	····
R45 1/2 furlongs turfClaiming $40,000, non-winners of two lifetimeEven pacepass
R4	2	HEADS IN BEDS	22%	7/2	3/1	+3	2·B·
R4	1	AMERICANEXPRESSION	21%	7/2	2/1	-5	3·B·
R4	6	FIVE DOZEN ROSES	21%	4/1	9/2	+6	1·B·
R4	3	GIVE HER ANOTHER	10%	9/1	10/1	+3	4·B·
R4	8	DIVINEINTERVENTION	9%	10/1	6/1	-2	5···
R4	9	PAYNTERPRETTY	6%	15/1	8/1	-3	7···
R4	4	FIFI LA FUME	5%	20/1	15/1	0	6·B·
R4	5	LESLIE'S STAR	3%	30/1	12/1	-3	9·B·
R4	7	CALL ME JAL	3%	30/1	30/1	0	8·B·
R51 1/16 miles turfMaiden claiming $55,000Even pacepass
R5	10	LOVEONTHELEFTBANK	19%	9/2	7/2	+1	1···
R5	1	PRIVATE PROPERTY	16%	5/1	4/1	0	3···
R5	6	U VICKY	15%	11/2	6/1	+4	2···
R5	3	MADELINE'S AGENDA	11%	8/1	6/1	-1	5·B·
R5	4	OUTRO	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	4···
R5	5	JUST TELL ANNE	8%	11/1	5/1	-5	8···
R5	2	RIVER EMPRESS	8%	11/1	10/1	+1	6·B·
R5	7	RAGING BLOOM	6%	15/1	15/1	+2	7···
R5	8	DR GLICK	6%	15/1	8/1	-3	9···
R66 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R6	4	KEY COLONY BEACH	17%	5/1	7/2	0	1▼··
R6	5	FOREVER CARINA	16%	11/2	4/1	0	····
R6	11	VERY CLEVER	13%	13/2	5/1	0	··B·
R6	8	MYSTICIOUS	11%	15/2	6/1	0	2▼··
R6	9	ABOVE ALL ODDS	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R6	3	LUCERRA	8%	11/1	8/1	0	3▼··
R6	1	CLASSIC NORA	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R6	7	WHITE TRUFFLES	5%	20/1	15/1	0	····
R6	2	COASTAL CONFLICT	5%	20/1	15/1	0	····
R6	6	KESHI	4%	25/1	20/1	0	····
R6	10	SPARKY'S DELIGHT	4%	25/1	20/1	0	··B·
R76 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $110,000Even pacepass
R7	6	NAKATOMI	27%	3/1	7/2	+3	1·B·
R7	5	OVER AND OLLIE	16%	5/1	6/1	+1	2···
R7	2	CAT ON TIME	16%	11/2	9/2	-4	5···
R7	7	GUNMETAL	15%	11/2	9/2	-5	6···
R7	4	ACOUSTIC AVE	14%	6/1	8/1	+2	3···
R7	1	BOLD JOURNEY	13%	7/1	10/1	+3	4···
R85 1/2 furlongs turfAllowance $105,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pacepass
R8	9	MARIA CALLAS	18%	9/2	5/1	+4	1···
R8	3	ARINATA	16%	11/2	6/1	+4	3·B·
R8	6	FAIRY GODMOTHER	15%	11/2	6/1	+3	2···
R8	11	TUTHILLTOWN	15%	6/1	4/1	-2	4···
R8	8	DANCINGWITHDESTINY	9%	10/1	6/1	-3	5···
R8	12	EMERGENCY NINE	8%	11/1	6/1	-4	6···
R8	5	VERNON VALLEY	6%	15/1	12/1	-1	7·B·
R8	1	SINEAD	4%	25/1	20/1	0	9···
R8	2	JULIET ON APPROACH	4%	25/1	30/1	+1	8···
R8	7	SCORCH	3%	30/1	15/1	-2	10···
R8	10	KAATERSKILL	1%	99/1	50/1	0	11·B·
R91 mile dirtAllowance $120,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag
R9	9	PLAYA DEL MAR	28%	5/2	4/1	+9	1▼··
R9	5	STIMULATE	19%	4/1	5/2	-8	2···
R9	6	SILVER TALENT	14%	13/2	5/1	-2	5▲··
R9	4	FREDDIE B	11%	8/1	6/1	-2	4···
R9	3	COCKTAILSNKRINGLE	10%	9/1	15/1	+4	3▼B·
R9	1	FILOSO	6%	15/1	20/1	+2	6···
R9	10	C MCGRIFF	6%	15/1	20/1	+1	7▲B·
R9	7	ENFORCED AGENDA	6%	15/1	10/1	-3	8▼··
R101 1/16 miles turfGrade 2 stakesContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag
R10	6	SEGESTA	48%	6/5	7/5	+13	1▲··
R10	5	AND ONE MORE TIME	13%	13/2	3/1	-7	4···
R10	3	DEEP SATIN	12%	15/2	5/1	-2	2···
R10	1	OZARA	11%	8/1	8/1	+2	3▲··
R10	2	SUNLIT UPLANDS	7%	15/1	10/1	-1	··B·
R10	7	GRAYOSH	6%	15/1	8/1	-4	6▲··
R10	8	LONG AGO	5%	20/1	12/1	-2	5···
R111 1/4 miles dirtGrade 1 stakesEven pacepass
R11	6	COUNTING STARS	49%	1/1	1/2	-4	1···
R11	4	MY GUN'S LOADED	17%	9/2	3/1	-2	3···
R11	3	MEASURE	14%	6/1	6/1	+3	2···
R11	2	ATI GIRL	7%	12/1	10/1	0	5···
R11	5	A. P.'S GIRL	6%	15/1	12/1	0	6···
R11	1	NYCON	6%	15/1	20/1	+2	4···
R121 3/16 miles turfMaiden special weightContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag
R12	6	MARY LOIS	30%	5/2	7/2	+13	1▲··
R12	5	SECRETLY DELIGHTED	20%	4/1	3/1	0	2▲··
R12	1	STAND THE RAIN	11%	8/1	9/2	-3	4···
R12	8	OSMOSIS	10%	9/1	9/2	-4	7▲··
R12	3	HOME WRECKER	10%	9/1	10/1	+2	3···
R12	4	FANGO CREEK	9%	10/1	4/1	-6	6···
R12	2	PRIME CONNECTION	8%	12/1	8/1	-1	5▼B·
R12	7	RIYAH AL NIL	1%	99/1	50/1	-1	8·B·

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 12 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet

R2Chalk4Asbury Park25%3/12/1

How it sets up

turfLone speedone gets loose on the lead, 7 going

Alone on the lead1

The board and our number agree in a $80,000 allowance optional claimer. One horse looks alone on the lead, which our pace adjustment credits.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	ASBURY PARK	25%	3/1	2/1
7	ARKHIPOV	25%	3/1	3/1
3	MUTAAWID	17%	5/1	7/2
5	SARDIS	12%	15/2	6/1
6	THE HIDDEN CHAMBER	10%	9/1	8/1
1	ROTHSCHILD	6%	15/1	5/1
2	L'IMPERATOR	5%	20/1	15/1

R3Chalk1Powerline29%5/28/5

How it sets up

dirtEven pace9 going

The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 29% against the board's 30%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	POWERLINE	29%	5/2	8/5
8	ART MUSEUM	16%	5/1	4/1
9	NO TIME TO LOSE	11%	8/1	6/1
3	GOT TOUGH	10%	9/1	8/1
4	BARREL ROLL	9%	10/1	8/1
6	AMERICAN HISTORY	7%	12/1	10/1
2	LOUDEN	7%	12/1	10/1
7	SHOCKED	6%	15/1	12/1
5	PASS ON BY	5%	20/1	15/1

R4Lean2Heads In Beds22%7/23/1

How it sets up

turfEven pace9 going

Our number likes this one in a $40,000 claimer, though it is not the top figure. We make the top one 22% against the board's 20%. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	HEADS IN BEDS	22%	7/2	3/1
1	AMERICANEXPRESSION	21%	7/2	2/1
6	FIVE DOZEN ROSES	21%	4/1	9/2
3	GIVE HER ANOTHER	10%	9/1	10/1
8	DIVINEINTERVENTION	9%	10/1	6/1
9	PAYNTERPRETTY	6%	15/1	8/1
4	FIFI LA FUME	5%	20/1	15/1
5	LESLIE'S STAR	3%	30/1	12/1
7	CALL ME JAL	3%	30/1	30/1

R5Scramble10Loveontheleftbank19%9/27/2

How it sets up

turfEven pace9 going

An open heat. Nothing separates the top two by more than 2.0 points. We make the top one 19% against the board's 18%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
10	LOVEONTHELEFTBANK	19%	9/2	7/2
1	PRIVATE PROPERTY	16%	5/1	4/1
6	U VICKY	15%	11/2	6/1
3	MADELINE'S AGENDA	11%	8/1	6/1
4	OUTRO	10%	9/1	8/1
5	JUST TELL ANNE	8%	11/1	5/1
2	RIVER EMPRESS	8%	11/1	10/1
7	RAGING BLOOM	6%	15/1	15/1
8	DR GLICK	6%	15/1	8/1

R6Scramble4Key Colony Beach17%5/17/2

How it sets up

dirtContested3 of 11 want the lead

Go forward348

A full field of eleven. Nothing separates the top two by more than 1.1 points. Three of them want the lead.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	KEY COLONY BEACH	17%	5/1	7/2
5	FOREVER CARINA	16%	11/2	4/1
11	VERY CLEVER	13%	13/2	5/1
8	MYSTICIOUS	11%	15/2	6/1
9	ABOVE ALL ODDS	11%	8/1	6/1
3	LUCERRA	8%	11/1	8/1
1	CLASSIC NORA	6%	15/1	12/1
7	WHITE TRUFFLES	5%	20/1	15/1
2	COASTAL CONFLICT	5%	20/1	15/1
6	KESHI	4%	25/1	20/1
10	SPARKY'S DELIGHT	4%	25/1	20/1

R7Lean6Nakatomi27%3/17/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pace6 going

Our top-rated horse in a $110,000 allowance optional claimer. We make the top one 27% against the board's 24%. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	NAKATOMI	27%	3/1	7/2
5	OVER AND OLLIE	16%	5/1	6/1
2	CAT ON TIME	16%	11/2	9/2
7	GUNMETAL	15%	11/2	9/2
4	ACOUSTIC AVE	14%	6/1	8/1
1	BOLD JOURNEY	13%	7/1	10/1

R8Lean9Maria Callas18%9/25/1

How it sets up

turfEven pace11 going

Our top-rated horse in an allowance. We make the top one 18% against the board's 14%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 4 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
9	MARIA CALLAS	18%	9/2	5/1
3	ARINATA	16%	11/2	6/1
6	FAIRY GODMOTHER	15%	11/2	6/1
11	TUTHILLTOWN	15%	6/1	4/1
8	DANCINGWITHDESTINY	9%	10/1	6/1
12	EMERGENCY NINE	8%	11/1	6/1
5	VERNON VALLEY	6%	15/1	12/1
1	SINEAD	4%	25/1	20/1
2	JULIET ON APPROACH	4%	25/1	30/1
7	SCORCH	3%	30/1	15/1
10	KAATERSKILL	1%	99/1	50/1

R11Chalk6Counting Stars49%1/11/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pace6 going

The board and our number agree in a Grade 1. We make the top one 49% against the board's 52%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	COUNTING STARS	49%	1/1	1/2
4	MY GUN'S LOADED	17%	9/2	3/1
3	MEASURE	14%	6/1	6/1
2	ATI GIRL	7%	12/1	10/1
5	A. P.'S GIRL	6%	15/1	12/1
1	NYCON	6%	15/1	20/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code d22ad90a · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 86994caec317… · Scratch status checked at 10:24 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

Edge Card runs a proprietary pre-race probability process: market expectations combined with licensed past-performance, pace, field-composition and connections information, evaluated within each race. Exact implementation details are not published. Structured analysis, not a proven edge; tracked publicly either way. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash	`86994caec317123bd0e68b94a067ab1602537dcb9df10609125efa4db9302a9d`
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