Saratoga, Sun Aug 16, 2026

10 races · published 11:29 AM ET · card locked

4 value plays today · 6 races we're passing

StatusCompleted · races run

First post1:10 PM ET

Scratch checkChecked · 11:23 AM ET

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Sun Aug 16, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day

5INSTANTLY

Race 7 · 7 furlongs dirt

36%model9/5fair5/2boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+13 pts over the board), the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number, so size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Today at SaratogaPartly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers, 80°F, wind 3 to 7 mph · rain 50%, off-track / soft-turf riskNWS forecast

Flags 4 of 10 races

New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.

Today’s plays4 flags

RaceHorseModelBoardEdge

R31Limes Don't Lie28%5/2+5 pts R75Instantly36%5/2+13 pts R84Inspeightofcharlie22%7/2+5 pts R94Intricate Spirit17%6/1+6 pts

Race 3 · 6 furlongs · dirt · Optional claiming $80,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterFlag

1LIMES DON'T LIE

Model

Fair

Board

28%

5/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

The board and our fair price round to the same number (5/2), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show, it is +5.4 points of win probability, not a longer price.

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested3 of 5 want the lead

Go forward2

Pace helps135

Three of the 5 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over six furlongs on dirt in a $80,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It tops our own win number, 5.2 points clear of the next one, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

3 of the 5 want the front over six furlongs on dirt, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

And the day: rain risk (50%), watch for an off track by post, which our number doesn’t account for.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	LIMES DON'T LIE ◀	28%	5/2	5/2
2	SHE'S A GAMER	23%	7/2	9/5
5	NEXT ON STAGE	20%	4/1	2/1
3	COASTER	17%	5/1	9/2
4	THE BIG CALHOUNA	12%	7/1	8/1

Race 7 · 7 furlongs · dirt · Maiden claiming $20,000Flag

5INSTANTLY

Model

Fair

Board

36%

9/5

5/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Barn angle strong here

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace8 going

No one horse is entitled to the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It tops our own win number, 15.8 points clear of the next one.

And the day: rain risk (50%), watch for an off track by post, which our number doesn’t account for.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	INSTANTLY ◀	36%	9/5	5/2
4	PRIVATE FLIGHT	20%	4/1	2/1
3	REBALANCING	13%	7/1	3/1
8	TURBO LAUNCH	11%	8/1	5/1
2	BOOTSY'S A RASCAL	7%	15/1	15/1
7	TRUE ADIRONDACKER	5%	20/1	20/1
1	THUNDERTAKER	4%	20/1	12/1
6	GO DHARMA	4%	25/1	20/1

Race 8 · 1 mile · turf · Optional claiming $45,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterFlag

4INSPEIGHTOFCHARLIE

Model

Fair

Board

22%

7/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

The board and our fair price round to the same number (7/2), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show, it is +5.1 points of win probability, not a longer price.

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #2 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested3 of 10 want the lead

Go forward910

Pace helps467

Three of the 10 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile on turf in a $45,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It rates second on our own win number, 3.7 points behind the top, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

3 of the 10 want the front over a mile on turf, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

And the day matters here: rain risk (50%) on a turf race. If it comes off the grass or the course goes soft, this read can shift. We don’t price going in advance.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	JACK AND JIM	26%	3/1	5/2
4	INSPEIGHTOFCHARLIE ◀	22%	7/2	7/2
5	JACK'S WORLD	15%	6/1	5/1
6	SMOOTH BREEZE	13%	13/2	4/1
2	SHARED SUCCESS	5%	20/1	15/1
7	FUNNY FACTOR	5%	20/1	12/1
8	TRUMAN'S COMMANDER	4%	25/1	12/1
1	CABLE READY	4%	25/1	15/1
9	MO TRUMP	3%	30/1	10/1
10	TERMINAL VELOCITY	3%	30/1	20/1

Race 9 · 5 1/2 furlongs · turf · Grade 3 stakesFlag

4INTRICATE SPIRIT

Model

Fair

Board

17%

5/1

6/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #2 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested3 of 7 want the lead

Go forward4

Pace helps37

Three of the 7 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five and a half furlongs on turf in a Grade 3 should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It rates second on our own win number, 15.2 points behind the top, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

3 of the 7 want the front over five and a half furlongs on turf, so the early fractions should be honest.

And the day matters here: rain risk (50%) on a turf race. If it comes off the grass or the course goes soft, this read can shift. We don’t price going in advance.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	OUTFIELDER	32%	2/1	1/1
4	INTRICATE SPIRIT ◀	17%	5/1	6/1
6	LEARNTODISCOVER	13%	7/1	6/1
7	STRADALE	12%	7/1	8/1
5	BIG DESTROYER	10%	9/1	5/1
3	OSCAR'S HOPE	8%	11/1	8/1
1	REBEL WITH A CAUSE	8%	12/1	8/1

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board

Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R	#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Edge	Why
R11 1/8 miles dirtAllowance $105,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterLone speedpass
R1	5	CRESCENDO'S REIN	33%	2/1	9/5	+5	1▲··
R1	4	JUDGE BOUSHAY	27%	5/2	2/1	+1	2···
R1	1	ZAPRUDER	20%	4/1	5/2	-2	3···
R1	3	SENEGAL	12%	15/2	5/1	-1	4···
R1	2	CADDIEMASTER	9%	11/1	6/1	-2	5···
R21 1/8 miles turfAllowance $105,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R2	5	CARC BROTHERS	48%	1/1	4/5	+5	1▲B·
R2	2	WILLPOWERED	20%	4/1	4/1	+4	2▲··
R2	6	CALVIN'S RIDE	12%	15/2	3/1	-8	4···
R2	1	OAT COUTOUR	11%	8/1	6/1	0	3▲··
R2	3	SIX FORTYFIVE	7%	15/1	10/1	-1	5···
R2	4	BLUE PILL	3%	30/1	30/1	0	6·B·
R36 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $80,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag
R3	1	LIMES DON'T LIE	28%	5/2	5/2	+5	1▲··
R3	2	SHE'S A GAMER	23%	7/2	9/5	-5	2▼··
R3	5	NEXT ON STAGE	20%	4/1	2/1	-6	4▲··
R3	3	COASTER	17%	5/1	9/2	+3	3▲B·
R3	4	THE BIG CALHOUNA	12%	7/1	8/1	+3	5·B·
R41 1/16 miles turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R4	9	GREENWELL	22%	7/2	5/2	-1	1···
R4	5	REAL RESTRAINT	17%	5/1	7/2	0	····
R4	10	RELATED PARTY	13%	13/2	5/1	0	··B·
R4	4	JERSEY GUY	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	2···
R4	2	SUSPEND	9%	10/1	8/1	+1	3···
R4	7	DIGNIFY	9%	11/1	8/1	0	····
R4	3	CULPABLE	7%	12/1	10/1	0	····
R4	6	VINTAGE VELOCITY	7%	12/1	10/1	0	····
R4	1	CAPTAIN G	3%	30/1	15/1	-2	4···
R4	8	NO LAW	2%	50/1	30/1	0	··B·
R56 furlongs dirtClaiming $20,000, non-winners of two lifetimeContested pace likely (6 early-speed types)pass
R5	4	SEEKER'S HOPE	26%	3/1	8/5	-5	1▼B·
R5	1	DUCKY MEDWICK	18%	9/2	7/2	0	2▲··
R5	5	MAJESTIC ARC	14%	6/1	9/2	0	3·B·
R5	7	RED MILLER	13%	7/1	6/1	+2	5▲··
R5	2	LEXINGTON PIKE	11%	8/1	10/1	+4	4···
R5	8	WAITIN'ONASUNNYDAY	8%	12/1	8/1	-1	6···
R5	6	MO SPICE	6%	15/1	15/1	+1	7···
R5	3	SPORTS HERO	4%	20/1	12/1	-2	8···
R61 1/16 miles turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R6	2	NOT EVER	18%	9/2	7/2	+1	··B·
R6	10	PERMANENT RECORD	16%	11/2	4/1	0	····
R6	7	CASINO	12%	15/2	6/1	+1	1···
R6	11	ROSCOE GOOSE	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R6	8	AMPLIFIED	9%	11/1	8/1	0	····
R6	1	E Z SPEAKER	9%	11/1	8/1	0	····
R6	3	BRING CASH	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R6	6	HILTS	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R6	5	CHAMBERED	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R6	4	JUSTIFIABLEEXPENSE	5%	20/1	15/1	0	····
R6	9	LET EM KNOW	4%	25/1	15/1	-1	2···
R77 furlongs dirtMaiden claiming $20,000Even pace1 flag
R7	5	INSTANTLY	36%	9/5	5/2	+13	1·B·
R7	4	PRIVATE FLIGHT	20%	4/1	2/1	-6	2···
R7	3	REBALANCING	13%	7/1	3/1	-7	4···
R7	8	TURBO LAUNCH	11%	8/1	5/1	-2	3·B·
R7	2	BOOTSY'S A RASCAL	7%	15/1	15/1	+2	5·B·
R7	7	TRUE ADIRONDACKER	5%	20/1	20/1	+1	6···
R7	1	THUNDERTAKER	4%	20/1	12/1	-2	8···
R7	6	GO DHARMA	4%	25/1	20/1	+1	7·B·
R81 mile turfOptional claiming $45,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag
R8	3	JACK AND JIM	26%	3/1	5/2	+4	1···
R8	4	INSPEIGHTOFCHARLIE	22%	7/2	7/2	+5	2▲··
R8	5	JACK'S WORLD	15%	6/1	5/1	+2	3···
R8	6	SMOOTH BREEZE	13%	13/2	4/1	-2	4▲··
R8	2	SHARED SUCCESS	5%	20/1	15/1	0	5···
R8	7	FUNNY FACTOR	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	6▲··
R8	8	TRUMAN'S COMMANDER	4%	25/1	12/1	-2	8···
R8	1	CABLE READY	4%	25/1	15/1	-1	7···
R8	9	MO TRUMP	3%	30/1	10/1	-4	10▼··
R8	10	TERMINAL VELOCITY	3%	30/1	20/1	-1	9▼B·
R95 1/2 furlongs turfGrade 3 stakesContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag
R9	2	OUTFIELDER	32%	2/1	1/1	-7	1···
R9	4	INTRICATE SPIRIT	17%	5/1	6/1	+6	2▼··
R9	6	LEARNTODISCOVER	13%	7/1	6/1	+2	3···
R9	7	STRADALE	12%	7/1	8/1	+4	4▲··
R9	5	BIG DESTROYER	10%	9/1	5/1	-3	5···
R9	3	OSCAR'S HOPE	8%	11/1	8/1	0	7▲··
R9	1	REBEL WITH A CAUSE	8%	12/1	8/1	-1	6···
R106 1/2 furlongs dirtClaiming $16,000Contested pace likely (5 early-speed types)pass
R10	2	PROJECTABILITY	17%	5/1	5/2	-5	2·B·
R10	1	LOTSA TROUBLE	16%	11/2	9/2	+1	1▲··
R10	6	ON THE LEDGE	11%	8/1	5/1	-2	4···
R10	5	MR SKYLIGHT	11%	8/1	10/1	+4	3·B·
R10	4	FARM TEAM	11%	8/1	6/1	0	5▲··
R10	3	PRINCIP	11%	8/1	6/1	0	6▲··
R10	8	STEWIE	8%	12/1	8/1	-1	7▼··
R10	7	SCREAMING UNCLE	6%	15/1	12/1	0	9▼··
R10	9	NEUSCHWANSTEIN	6%	15/1	15/1	+1	8▼··
R10	10	GRAYWING	3%	30/1	30/1	+1	10·B·

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 10 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet

R1Lean5Crescendo's Rein33%2/19/5

How it sets up

dirtLone speedone gets loose on the lead, 5 going

Alone on the lead5

Our top-rated horse in an allowance. One horse looks alone on the lead, which our pace adjustment credits. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 5 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	CRESCENDO'S REIN	33%	2/1	9/5
4	JUDGE BOUSHAY	27%	5/2	2/1
1	ZAPRUDER	20%	4/1	5/2
3	SENEGAL	12%	15/2	5/1
2	CADDIEMASTER	9%	11/1	6/1

R2Lean5Carc Brothers48%1/14/5

How it sets up

turfContested3 of 6 want the lead

Pace helps125

Our top-rated horse in an allowance. Three of them want the lead. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 5 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	CARC BROTHERS	48%	1/1	4/5
2	WILLPOWERED	20%	4/1	4/1
6	CALVIN'S RIDE	12%	15/2	3/1
1	OAT COUTOUR	11%	8/1	6/1
3	SIX FORTYFIVE	7%	15/1	10/1
4	BLUE PILL	3%	30/1	30/1

R4Chalk9Greenwell22%7/25/2

How it sets up

turfEven pace10 going

The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. A full field of ten.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
9	GREENWELL	22%	7/2	5/2
5	REAL RESTRAINT	17%	5/1	7/2
10	RELATED PARTY	13%	13/2	5/1
4	JERSEY GUY	10%	9/1	8/1
2	SUSPEND	9%	10/1	8/1
7	DIGNIFY	9%	11/1	8/1
3	CULPABLE	7%	12/1	10/1
6	VINTAGE VELOCITY	7%	12/1	10/1
1	CAPTAIN G	3%	30/1	15/1
8	NO LAW	2%	50/1	30/1

R5Chalk4Seeker's Hope26%3/18/5

How it sets up

dirtContested6 of 8 want the lead

Go forward4

Pace helps17

The board and our number agree in a $20,000 claimer. Six horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	SEEKER'S HOPE	26%	3/1	8/5
1	DUCKY MEDWICK	18%	9/2	7/2
5	MAJESTIC ARC	14%	6/1	9/2
7	RED MILLER	13%	7/1	6/1
2	LEXINGTON PIKE	11%	8/1	10/1
8	WAITIN'ONASUNNYDAY	8%	12/1	8/1
6	MO SPICE	6%	15/1	15/1
3	SPORTS HERO	4%	20/1	12/1

R6Scramble2Not Ever18%9/27/2

How it sets up

turfEven pace11 going

A full field of eleven. Nothing separates the top two by more than 2.1 points. We make the top one 18% against the board's 17%. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	NOT EVER	18%	9/2	7/2
10	PERMANENT RECORD	16%	11/2	4/1
7	CASINO	12%	15/2	6/1
11	ROSCOE GOOSE	11%	8/1	6/1
8	AMPLIFIED	9%	11/1	8/1
1	E Z SPEAKER	9%	11/1	8/1
3	BRING CASH	6%	15/1	12/1
6	HILTS	6%	15/1	12/1
5	CHAMBERED	6%	15/1	12/1
4	JUSTIFIABLEEXPENSE	5%	20/1	15/1
9	LET EM KNOW	4%	25/1	15/1

R10Scramble2Projectability17%5/15/2

How it sets up

dirtContested5 of 10 want the lead

Go forward789

Pace helps134

A full field of ten. Nothing separates the top two by more than 1.8 points. Five horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	PROJECTABILITY	17%	5/1	5/2
1	LOTSA TROUBLE	16%	11/2	9/2
6	ON THE LEDGE	11%	8/1	5/1
5	MR SKYLIGHT	11%	8/1	10/1
4	FARM TEAM	11%	8/1	6/1
3	PRINCIP	11%	8/1	6/1
8	STEWIE	8%	12/1	8/1
7	SCREAMING UNCLE	6%	15/1	12/1
9	NEUSCHWANSTEIN	6%	15/1	15/1
10	GRAYWING	3%	30/1	30/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code ff76e834 · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 a53e999c0442… · Scratch status checked at 11:23 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

Edge Card runs a proprietary pre-race probability process: market expectations combined with licensed past-performance, pace, field-composition and connections information, evaluated within each race. Exact implementation details are not published. Structured analysis, not a proven edge; tracked publicly either way. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash	`a53e999c04420f8d2ae96725a681f2acf217be91ffbb714fee7e3d2f0bf6397a`
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