Del Mar, Sun Aug 16, 2026

10 races · published 11:29 AM ET · card locked

4 value plays today · 6 races we're passing

StatusCompleted · races run

First post2:00 PM PT

Scratch checkChecked · 11:23 AM ET

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Sun Aug 16, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day

8GETTINBY

Race 9 · 5 furlongs turf

23%model7/2fair4/1boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+8 pts over the board), the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number, so size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Today at Del MarPartly Sunny, 77°F, wind 5 to 10 mph · rain 1%, no off-track flagNWS forecast

Flags 4 of 10 races

New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.

Today’s plays4 flags

RaceHorseModelBoardEdge

R45Scene By Me22%4/1+6 pts R55Sweet Azteca51%4/5+6 pts R74Cipriani23%7/2+5 pts R98Gettinby23%4/1+8 pts

Likely bet down All 4 flags today. A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Race 4 · 5 furlongs · turf · Optional claiming $20,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterFlag

5SCENE BY ME

Model

Fair

Board

22%

7/2

4/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested5 of 8 want the lead

Go forward25

Pace helps136

Five of the 8 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five furlongs on turf in a $20,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It rates second on our own win number, 2.2 points behind the top, and with 5 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

5 of the 8 want the front over five furlongs on turf, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	DISKO TRIBUTE	24%	3/1	3/1
5	SCENE BY ME ◀	22%	7/2	4/1
8	HACKING IT UP	16%	11/2	7/2
1	ITS A CINCH	13%	13/2	4/1
6	PIPER'S CAUSEWAY	12%	15/2	5/1
7	KERRY GOLD	6%	15/1	15/1
2	ARKADELPHIA	4%	25/1	12/1
4	I'M A BAD BOY	3%	30/1	15/1

Race 5 · 6 1/2 furlongs · dirt · Grade 3 stakesFlag

5SWEET AZTECA

Model

Fair

Board

51%

1/1

4/5

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace6 going

Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

SWEET AZTECA is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

It tops our own win number, 24.8 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	SWEET AZTECA ◀	51%	1/1	4/5
1	THERMAL	26%	3/1	6/5
4	FIRE BAN	8%	12/1	12/1
6	SWEET GAL OF MINE	8%	12/1	12/1
3	ANTIFONA	5%	20/1	20/1
2	CATALINA COCKTAIL	4%	25/1	20/1

Race 7 · 1 mile · turf · Optional claiming $50,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterFlag

4CIPRIANI

Model

Fair

Board

23%

7/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

The board and our fair price round to the same number (7/2), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show, it is +5.5 points of win probability, not a longer price.

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Barn angle strong here

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace7 going

No one horse is entitled to the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

It tops our own win number, 1.2 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	CIPRIANI ◀	23%	7/2	7/2
1	GOODIES	22%	7/2	3/1
7	MIDNIGHT HORIZON	17%	5/1	5/2
2	MISO PHANSY	11%	8/1	8/1
5	YOGA MASTER	11%	8/1	8/1
6	IMA JOKER	9%	10/1	8/1
3	MISLEADING	7%	12/1	6/1

Race 9 · 5 furlongs · turf · Optional claiming $50,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterFlag

8GETTINBY

Model

Fair

Board

23%

7/2

4/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested4 of 11 want the lead

Go forward358911

Pace helps410

Four of the 11 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five furlongs on turf in a $50,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It tops our own win number, 8.8 points clear of the next one, and with 4 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

4 of the 11 want the front over five furlongs on turf, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
8	GETTINBY ◀	23%	7/2	4/1
2	PRIVATE GEM	15%	6/1	6/1
10	SIR ROCKET	14%	6/1	6/1
1	NASTY HABIT	10%	9/1	5/1
3	LEGAL HEIR	8%	12/1	12/1
6	DHITJARI	8%	12/1	8/1
4	DEL MAR JERRY	6%	15/1	6/1
5	DOUBLE JAB	5%	20/1	12/1
9	GABALDON	4%	25/1	10/1
7	THE RABBI	3%	30/1	20/1
11	BULLWHACKER	3%	30/1	15/1

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board

Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R	#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Edge	Why
R11 1/16 miles turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R1	4	BULL SHOALS	33%	2/1	7/5	0	1···
R1	5	GOING NOWHERE	23%	7/2	7/2	+5	2···
R1	1	ROYAL RUMOR	18%	9/2	3/1	-2	3···
R1	3	BIG VENGEANCE	11%	8/1	5/1	-2	5·B·
R1	2	DOING TIME	11%	8/1	8/1	+2	4···
R1	6	CHALKY'S GOLD	3%	30/1	12/1	-3	6···
R25 1/2 furlongs dirtClaiming $16,000, non-winners of three lifetimeContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass
R2	4	PRETTY CECY	19%	4/1	5/2	-4	3▲··
R2	7	JASMINA	17%	9/2	3/1	-2	1···
R2	6	RUNNING SUPER	15%	11/2	5/1	+2	2···
R2	2	BEAR'S BOARD	13%	13/2	6/1	+2	6▲··
R2	5	CHASING KAT	12%	7/1	5/1	-1	4▼B·
R2	8	LOVELY MEDAGLIA	12%	7/1	8/1	+3	5▲··
R2	3	HOW LOVELY	7%	15/1	10/1	-1	7▼··
R2	1	STARS HOLLOW	4%	25/1	20/1	0	8▼B·
R36 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R3	1	ANGEL'S EMBER	15%	11/2	4/1	0	····
R3	7	REPO	15%	11/2	5/2	-7	3·B·
R3	5	LITTLE KING	14%	13/2	6/1	+2	1···
R3	2	EMPIRE OF ASH	13%	13/2	5/1	0	····
R3	3	IS THAT YOU WING	10%	9/1	8/1	+2	2···
R3	6	VERN GOSDIN	9%	10/1	8/1	0	····
R3	4	SCAM ALERT	8%	12/1	12/1	+2	4···
R3	8	CUPID COWBOY	5%	15/1	20/1	+2	5·B·
R3	9	OLYMPIAN THIRST	5%	20/1	20/1	+1	6·B·
R3	10	GOODTIMESNTANLINES	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	7···
R45 furlongs turfOptional claiming $20,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (5 early-speed types)1 flag
R4	3	DISKO TRIBUTE	24%	3/1	3/1	+4	2▲··
R4	5	SCENE BY ME	22%	7/2	4/1	+6	1▼··
R4	8	HACKING IT UP	16%	11/2	7/2	-2	3···
R4	1	ITS A CINCH	13%	13/2	4/1	-3	4▲··
R4	6	PIPER'S CAUSEWAY	12%	15/2	5/1	-2	5▲··
R4	7	KERRY GOLD	6%	15/1	15/1	+1	6·B·
R4	2	ARKADELPHIA	4%	25/1	12/1	-2	7▼B·
R4	4	I'M A BAD BOY	3%	30/1	15/1	-2	8···
R56 1/2 furlongs dirtGrade 3 stakesEven pace1 flag
R5	5	SWEET AZTECA	51%	1/1	4/5	+6	1···
R5	1	THERMAL	26%	3/1	6/5	-10	2···
R5	4	FIRE BAN	8%	12/1	12/1	+2	3···
R5	6	SWEET GAL OF MINE	8%	12/1	12/1	+1	4···
R5	3	ANTIFONA	5%	20/1	20/1	+1	5···
R5	2	CATALINA COCKTAIL	4%	25/1	20/1	0	6···
R61 1/16 miles dirtMaiden claiming $16,000Even pacepass
R6	7	WHYNOTANOTHERONE	19%	4/1	3/1	0	1···
R6	9	LOW TOX	12%	7/1	6/1	+1	3·B·
R6	3	KING OF SUCCESS	11%	15/2	6/1	0	2···
R6	5	MY MAN JOE ROLDAN	11%	8/1	6/1	0	4···
R6	11	RAPID ASCENT	11%	9/1	4/1	-5	6···
R6	10	CANO FOR THE WIN	9%	10/1	12/1	+3	5·B·
R6	2	HOOSICK FALLS	7%	12/1	8/1	-1	7···
R6	8	H Q WILSON	6%	15/1	12/1	0	9···
R6	4	WAR ARTIST	5%	20/1	20/1	+1	8·B·
R6	6	TEXAS WILDCAT	5%	20/1	20/1	+1	10···
R6	12	DISILLUSIONED	4%	25/1	20/1	0	11·B·
R71 mile turfOptional claiming $50,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pace1 flag
R7	4	CIPRIANI	23%	7/2	7/2	+5	1·B·
R7	1	GOODIES	22%	7/2	3/1	+2	2···
R7	7	MIDNIGHT HORIZON	17%	5/1	5/2	-6	3···
R7	2	MISO PHANSY	11%	8/1	8/1	+2	4···
R7	5	YOGA MASTER	11%	8/1	8/1	+2	5···
R7	6	IMA JOKER	9%	10/1	8/1	0	6···
R7	3	MISLEADING	7%	12/1	6/1	-5	7···
R81 mile dirtClaiming $8,000Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R8	1	MONGOLIAN MAX	17%	9/2	5/2	-5	1···
R8	9	LEYAS CANDY	13%	13/2	3/1	-6	4▼··
R8	8	COWBOY MIKE	13%	13/2	4/1	-3	2▼B·
R8	10	CUPID'S CRUSADER	10%	9/1	8/1	+2	3▼B·
R8	3	CATHAL	9%	10/1	12/1	+3	5···
R8	2	BIG JUANITO	9%	11/1	8/1	0	8···
R8	7	SHORTMAN	9%	11/1	20/1	+5	6▲··
R8	5	TARIFF	8%	11/1	12/1	+2	7···
R8	6	SMILING JOJO	7%	15/1	12/1	+1	9···
R8	4	LEVON	5%	20/1	30/1	+2	10▲··
R95 furlongs turfOptional claiming $50,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)1 flag
R9	8	GETTINBY	23%	7/2	4/1	+8	1▼··
R9	2	PRIVATE GEM	15%	6/1	6/1	+3	2···
R9	10	SIR ROCKET	14%	6/1	6/1	+3	3▲B·
R9	1	NASTY HABIT	10%	9/1	5/1	-3	5···
R9	3	LEGAL HEIR	8%	12/1	12/1	+2	4▼··
R9	6	DHITJARI	8%	12/1	8/1	-1	6···
R9	4	DEL MAR JERRY	6%	15/1	6/1	-5	11▲··
R9	5	DOUBLE JAB	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	7▼··
R9	9	GABALDON	4%	25/1	10/1	-3	8▼··
R9	7	THE RABBI	3%	30/1	20/1	-1	9···
R9	11	BULLWHACKER	3%	30/1	15/1	-2	10▼··
R105 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden claiming $12,500Even pacepass
R10	9	STYLISHLY BIG	17%	5/1	7/2	0	····
R10	2	MELBA MONTGOMERY	13%	13/2	4/1	-2	2···
R10	6	REMEMBER APRIL	13%	13/2	6/1	+2	1·B·
R10	4	LITTLE SANDY BEE	12%	15/2	5/1	-1	4·B·
R10	10	SHE'S BACK	10%	9/1	8/1	+2	3·B·
R10	12	DIVA DAZZLE	9%	11/1	8/1	0	····
R10	5	WILLOW IN THE WIND	8%	12/1	8/1	-1	5·B·
R10	8	LIST MY BIZ	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R10	1	JOY THE IMAGE	4%	25/1	20/1	0	6···
R10	11	SOUTHERN RIFF	3%	30/1	30/1	+1	7···
R10	3	CHAMPAGNIA	3%	30/1	30/1	0	8···
R10	7	PALACE MISCHIEF	2%	30/1	30/1	0	9·B·

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 10 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet

R1Chalk4Bull Shoals33%2/17/5

How it sets up

turfEven pace6 going

The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 33% against the board's 34%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	BULL SHOALS	33%	2/1	7/5
5	GOING NOWHERE	23%	7/2	7/2
1	ROYAL RUMOR	18%	9/2	3/1
3	BIG VENGEANCE	11%	8/1	5/1
2	DOING TIME	11%	8/1	8/1
6	CHALKY'S GOLD	3%	30/1	12/1

R2Scramble4Pretty Cecy19%4/15/2

How it sets up

dirtContested4 of 8 want the lead

Go forward135

Pace helps248

An open heat. Nothing separates the top two by more than 1.6 points. Four horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	PRETTY CECY	19%	4/1	5/2
7	JASMINA	17%	9/2	3/1
6	RUNNING SUPER	15%	11/2	5/1
2	BEAR'S BOARD	13%	13/2	6/1
5	CHASING KAT	12%	7/1	5/1
8	LOVELY MEDAGLIA	12%	7/1	8/1
3	HOW LOVELY	7%	15/1	10/1
1	STARS HOLLOW	4%	25/1	20/1

R3Scramble1Angel's Ember15%11/24/1

How it sets up

dirtEven pace10 going

A full field of ten. The top two are effectively level on our numbers. We make the top one 15% against the board's 16%. We make the favourite, #7 REPO, 15% against the board's 23%, shorter than we think it should be. Our own top-rated is #1 ANGEL'S EMBER. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	ANGEL'S EMBER	15%	11/2	4/1
7	REPO	15%	11/2	5/2
5	LITTLE KING	14%	13/2	6/1
2	EMPIRE OF ASH	13%	13/2	5/1
3	IS THAT YOU WING	10%	9/1	8/1
6	VERN GOSDIN	9%	10/1	8/1
4	SCAM ALERT	8%	12/1	12/1
8	CUPID COWBOY	5%	15/1	20/1
9	OLYMPIAN THIRST	5%	20/1	20/1
10	GOODTIMESNTANLINES	5%	20/1	12/1

R6Chalk7Whynotanotherone19%4/13/1

How it sets up

dirtEven pace11 going

The board and our number agree in a $16,000 maiden claimer. A full field of eleven.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
7	WHYNOTANOTHERONE	19%	4/1	3/1
9	LOW TOX	12%	7/1	6/1
3	KING OF SUCCESS	11%	15/2	6/1
5	MY MAN JOE ROLDAN	11%	8/1	6/1
11	RAPID ASCENT	11%	9/1	4/1
10	CANO FOR THE WIN	9%	10/1	12/1
2	HOOSICK FALLS	7%	12/1	8/1
8	H Q WILSON	6%	15/1	12/1
4	WAR ARTIST	5%	20/1	20/1
6	TEXAS WILDCAT	5%	20/1	20/1
12	DISILLUSIONED	4%	25/1	20/1

R8Chalk1Mongolian Max17%9/25/2

How it sets up

dirtContested3 of 10 want the lead

Go forward8910

Pace helps47

The board and our number agree in a $8,000 claimer. Three of them want the lead. We make the favourite, #1 MONGOLIAN MAX, 18% against the board's 22%, shorter than we think it should be. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	MONGOLIAN MAX	17%	9/2	5/2
9	LEYAS CANDY	13%	13/2	3/1
8	COWBOY MIKE	13%	13/2	4/1
10	CUPID'S CRUSADER	10%	9/1	8/1
3	CATHAL	9%	10/1	12/1
2	BIG JUANITO	9%	11/1	8/1
7	SHORTMAN	9%	11/1	20/1
5	TARIFF	8%	11/1	12/1
6	SMILING JOJO	7%	15/1	12/1
4	LEVON	5%	20/1	30/1

R10Chalk9Stylishly Big17%5/17/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pace12 going

The board and our number agree in a $12,500 maiden claimer. A full field of twelve.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
9	STYLISHLY BIG	17%	5/1	7/2
2	MELBA MONTGOMERY	13%	13/2	4/1
6	REMEMBER APRIL	13%	13/2	6/1
4	LITTLE SANDY BEE	12%	15/2	5/1
10	SHE'S BACK	10%	9/1	8/1
12	DIVA DAZZLE	9%	11/1	8/1
5	WILLOW IN THE WIND	8%	12/1	8/1
8	LIST MY BIZ	6%	15/1	12/1
1	JOY THE IMAGE	4%	25/1	20/1
11	SOUTHERN RIFF	3%	30/1	30/1
3	CHAMPAGNIA	3%	30/1	30/1
7	PALACE MISCHIEF	2%	30/1	30/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code ff76e834 · takeout (DMR) win 15.43% / exacta 22.68% · card SHA-256 8071829086ee… · Scratch status checked at 11:23 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

Edge Card runs a proprietary pre-race probability process: market expectations combined with licensed past-performance, pace, field-composition and connections information, evaluated within each race. Exact implementation details are not published. Structured analysis, not a proven edge; tracked publicly either way. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash	`8071829086ee07f8f5f39ea3324c45d3ee099eaaaa7eb9ad6a0fa2a48bfe4350`
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