Saratoga, Sat Aug 15, 2026

12 races · published 11:24 AM ET · card locked

4 value plays today · 8 races we're passing

StatusCompleted · races run

First post12:30 PM ET

Scratch checkChecked · 11:23 AM ET

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Sat Aug 15, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Late change since this card was published

Scratched off the turf. Race 5 was taken off the turf and its distance changed from 1 1/16M to 1M; this flag is void and must not be acted on. confirmed 15:25 UTC · NYRA official Saratoga scratches & changes sheet

The card above is not edited. It was hash-stamped before post. Any flagged runner listed here is void at scoring, never counted as a loss.

Edge of the Day

7SURVIE

Race 9 · 1 1/2 miles turf

29%model5/2fair6/1boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+18 pts over the board), the price may move either way into post; you’re paid the close. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Today at SaratogaMostly Sunny, 79°F, wind 3 mph · rain 1%, no off-track flagNWS forecast

Flags 4 of 12 races

New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.

Today’s plays4 flags

RaceHorseModelBoardEdge

R58Considerate City38%8/5+8 pts R76Candytown25%9/2+11 pts R97Survie29%6/1+18 pts R105Cadenza27%7/2+10 pts

Race 5 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Allowance $105,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterScratched · void

8CONSIDERATE CITY

Model

Fair

Board

38%

8/5

our win %

break-even

the morning line

The board and our fair price round to the same number (8/5), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show, it is +7.7 points of win probability, not a longer price.

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace8 going

No one horse is entitled to the lead. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

CONSIDERATE CITY is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

It tops our own win number, 18.1 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
8	CONSIDERATE CITY ◀	38%	8/5	8/5
2	TONGUE TWISTER	20%	4/1	3/1
3	BOOMINGTON	11%	8/1	6/1
1	BERTRILLE	9%	10/1	5/1
5	BRITAIN	8%	11/1	5/1
7	MIAMI STYLE	7%	12/1	30/1
6	ATHENA'S FURY	6%	15/1	8/1
4	DIPTIQUE	1%	99/1	50/1

Race 7 · 5 1/2 furlongs · turf · Optional claiming $80,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterFlag

6CANDYTOWN

Model

Fair

Board

25%

3/1

9/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace8 going

Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

It tops our own win number, 5.1 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	CANDYTOWN ◀	25%	3/1	9/2
4	FINAL VERDICT	20%	4/1	7/2
3	NO EVIDENCE	12%	7/1	4/1
1	SPICED UP	11%	8/1	4/1
2	BITE AND STRIKE	9%	10/1	6/1
7	VACATION DANCE	8%	12/1	8/1
5	WAR STRIDE	8%	12/1	8/1
8	ATTFIELD	7%	15/1	8/1

Race 9 · 1 1/2 miles · turf · Grade 1 stakesFlag

7SURVIE

Model

Fair

Board

29%

5/2

6/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace7 going

Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It tops our own win number, 13.8 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
7	SURVIE ◀	29%	5/2	6/1
3	OLE CRAZY BONE	15%	11/2	4/1
4	PROGRAM TRADING	14%	6/1	7/2
6	MINARET STATION	13%	13/2	3/1
1	ANCIENT EGYPT	13%	7/1	5/1
5	FORT GEORGE	8%	11/1	9/2
2	TAWNY PORT	7%	15/1	8/1

Race 10 · 5 1/2 furlongs · turf · Stakes, $200,000 purseFlag

5CADENZA

Model

Fair

Board

27%

5/2

7/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Barn angle strong here

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested8 of 8 want the lead

Go forward17

Pace helps258

Eight of the 8 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five and a half furlongs on turf in a starter allowance should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It tops our own win number, 7.2 points clear of the next one, and with 8 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

8 of the 8 want the front over five and a half furlongs on turf, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	CADENZA ◀	27%	5/2	7/2
6	MAUNA LOA	20%	4/1	3/1
8	MYTHICAL	15%	11/2	9/2
7	TRISKELION	11%	8/1	5/1
1	GERRARDS CROSS	9%	10/1	6/1
2	EPIC LADY LUCK	7%	15/1	12/1
4	QUEEN JUNO	7%	15/1	10/1
3	OSCAR'S ENCORE	5%	20/1	6/1

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board

Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R	#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Edge	Why
R16 furlongs dirtClaiming $30,000, non-winners of three lifetimeContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R1	6	SALMING	28%	5/2	2/1	+2	1▲B·
R1	5	ANTIETAM	14%	13/2	6/1	+3	2▲··
R1	7	MATH TUTOR	11%	8/1	4/1	-4	4▼··
R1	2	THE TOY CANNON	10%	9/1	5/1	-3	7▼B·
R1	1	EPITAPH	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	5▼B·
R1	3	SCHLOMO	10%	9/1	10/1	+3	3▼··
R1	8	FISTFULOFMONEY	9%	10/1	6/1	-2	8▼··
R1	4	NANTZ	8%	12/1	10/1	+1	6▼··
R26 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R2	4	MINDFIELD	17%	5/1	7/2	0	····
R2	7	BIG HANDSOME	16%	11/2	4/1	0	····
R2	3	SARATOGA TEA	14%	6/1	9/2	0	1···
R2	8	UPPER ECHELON	14%	13/2	5/1	0	··B·
R2	1	TOP THRILLER	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R2	2	EQUILIBRATE	9%	10/1	8/1	0	····
R2	6	SCRAMJET	9%	10/1	8/1	0	····
R2	5	SANTIS	7%	12/1	10/1	0	····
R2	9	SILVER KNIGHT	4%	25/1	20/1	0	2···
R36 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightLone speedpass
R3	4	ROAD SHOW	29%	5/2	7/5	-4	1···
R3	7	CUT DOWN THE NETS	25%	3/1	3/1	+5	2▲··
R3	5	NYSTATEOFMIND	13%	7/1	5/1	0	····
R3	8	ARAWAK	8%	11/1	8/1	0	····
R3	9	SWEET REDEMPTION	6%	15/1	12/1	0	3···
R3	2	WARTOENDALLWARS	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R3	6	J BUCK	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R3	3	PRIVATE BANKER	5%	20/1	15/1	0	··B·
R3	1	NEPTUNEROAD RICHIE	3%	30/1	20/1	0	····
R41 mile dirtAllowance $105,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R4	2	LADY ROSE	33%	2/1	9/5	+5	1▲··
R4	6	FEDUPWITHTHEFED	17%	5/1	9/2	+3	2▲··
R4	5	TOP OF THE TABLE	13%	7/1	3/1	-7	5···
R4	3	LAST GLORY	12%	15/2	8/1	+3	3▲B·
R4	4	FULL POUR	11%	8/1	5/1	-2	4·B·
R4	7	GRACE REFORMED	8%	11/1	6/1	-3	6···
R4	1	HONEST REASON	6%	15/1	15/1	+1	7▼··
R51 1/16 miles turfAllowance $105,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pace1 flag
R5	8	CONSIDERATE CITY	38%	8/5	8/5	+8	1···
R5	2	TONGUE TWISTER	20%	4/1	3/1	0	2···
R5	3	BOOMINGTON	11%	8/1	6/1	0	3···
R5	1	BERTRILLE	9%	10/1	5/1	-4	5···
R5	5	BRITAIN	8%	11/1	5/1	-5	7···
R5	7	MIAMI STYLE	7%	12/1	30/1	+4	4···
R5	6	ATHENA'S FURY	6%	15/1	8/1	-2	6···
R5	4	DIPTIQUE	1%	99/1	50/1	0	8···
R66 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R6	8	TUMOOHAAT	22%	7/2	5/2	0	····
R6	6	BELLE N BROOKE	18%	9/2	7/2	0	··B·
R6	3	LIBBY LLOYD	14%	6/1	9/2	0	····
R6	5	ONEINAMILLIONGIRL	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R6	7	FREE VERSE	9%	10/1	8/1	0	··B·
R6	9	GROVES	9%	11/1	8/1	0	····
R6	2	V FORMATION	7%	12/1	10/1	0	····
R6	1	CLOCK	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R6	4	RAGS TO ROSES	4%	25/1	20/1	0	··B·
R75 1/2 furlongs turfOptional claiming $80,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pace1 flag
R7	6	CANDYTOWN	25%	3/1	9/2	+11	1···
R7	4	FINAL VERDICT	20%	4/1	7/2	+3	2···
R7	3	NO EVIDENCE	12%	7/1	4/1	-4	3···
R7	1	SPICED UP	11%	8/1	4/1	-5	4···
R7	2	BITE AND STRIKE	9%	10/1	6/1	-2	5···
R7	7	VACATION DANCE	8%	12/1	8/1	-1	6···
R7	5	WAR STRIDE	8%	12/1	8/1	-1	7···
R7	8	ATTFIELD	7%	15/1	8/1	-2	8···
R86 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R8	2	CARD MAN	18%	9/2	7/2	0	····
R8	3	Q B ROCKET	16%	5/1	4/1	0	··B·
R8	8	DAMAVAND	14%	6/1	9/2	0	····
R8	1	MCCOY	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R8	7	DECIMATION	11%	8/1	6/1	0	1···
R8	6	DALLAS STAR	9%	10/1	8/1	0	····
R8	5	KATZ IN THE CRADLE	7%	12/1	10/1	0	····
R8	10	VUKOTA	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R8	4	FARSIDEOFTHEMOON	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R8	9	HOOKED	2%	30/1	30/1	0	····
R91 1/2 miles turfGrade 1 stakesEven pace1 flag
R9	7	SURVIE	29%	5/2	6/1	+18	1···
R9	3	OLE CRAZY BONE	15%	11/2	4/1	0	2···
R9	4	PROGRAM TRADING	14%	6/1	7/2	-3	3·B·
R9	6	MINARET STATION	13%	13/2	3/1	-6	4···
R9	1	ANCIENT EGYPT	13%	7/1	5/1	0	····
R9	5	FORT GEORGE	8%	11/1	9/2	-6	6···
R9	2	TAWNY PORT	7%	15/1	8/1	-2	5···
R105 1/2 furlongs turfStakes, $200,000 purseContested pace likely (8 early-speed types)1 flag
R10	5	CADENZA	27%	5/2	7/2	+10	1▲B·
R10	6	MAUNA LOA	20%	4/1	3/1	0	2···
R10	8	MYTHICAL	15%	11/2	9/2	+1	3▲··
R10	7	TRISKELION	11%	8/1	5/1	-2	4▼··
R10	1	GERRARDS CROSS	9%	10/1	6/1	-2	5▼··
R10	2	EPIC LADY LUCK	7%	15/1	12/1	+1	7▲··
R10	4	QUEEN JUNO	7%	15/1	10/1	-1	6···
R10	3	OSCAR'S ENCORE	5%	20/1	6/1	-7	8···
R111 mile dirtStarter allowance, $40,000 levelContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R11	7	COME FULL CIRCLE	20%	4/1	3/1	0	2···
R11	2	CALLING CARD	19%	9/2	5/2	-4	4▲··
R11	4	CELTIC PRINCE	17%	5/1	6/1	+6	1▼B·
R11	1	DINNER ROYALE	15%	11/2	7/2	-2	3▼··
R11	5	MCDIESEL	11%	8/1	6/1	0	5▼B·
R11	8	SOCIABLY JOHNNY	7%	12/1	8/1	-1	7▲··
R11	6	TAKAHAMA	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	8·B·
R11	3	BIG BROOKLYN	5%	20/1	20/1	+1	6···
R121 1/16 miles turfMaiden claiming $50,000Even pacepass
R12	8	GILBANE	23%	7/2	5/2	+1	1···
R12	1	BEFORE THE WIND	21%	4/1	3/1	+1	2···
R12	10	FIVEDOLLARSFORSOX	14%	13/2	5/1	0	··B·
R12	5	LOBBYIST	8%	11/1	8/1	0	3·B·
R12	4	OSIRIS LAW	8%	11/1	8/1	0	5···
R12	9	MO CURLS	7%	12/1	12/1	+1	4···
R12	6	FOTO	7%	15/1	10/1	-1	6···
R12	3	D C BOY'S	5%	20/1	10/1	-2	7···
R12	2	SHENANIGANS BUCK	4%	25/1	20/1	0	····
R12	7	SURFSIDE DAN	4%	25/1	20/1	0	··B·

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 12 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet

R1Lean6Salming28%5/22/1

How it sets up

dirtContested3 of 8 want the lead

Go forward123478

Pace helps56

Our top-rated horse in a $30,000 claimer. Three of them want the lead. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 2 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	SALMING	28%	5/2	2/1
5	ANTIETAM	14%	13/2	6/1
7	MATH TUTOR	11%	8/1	4/1
2	THE TOY CANNON	10%	9/1	5/1
1	EPITAPH	10%	9/1	8/1
3	SCHLOMO	10%	9/1	10/1
8	FISTFULOFMONEY	9%	10/1	6/1
4	NANTZ	8%	12/1	10/1

R2Scramble4Mindfield17%5/17/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pace9 going

An open heat. Nothing separates the top two by more than 1.6 points. We make the top one 17% against the board's 17%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	MINDFIELD	17%	5/1	7/2
7	BIG HANDSOME	16%	11/2	4/1
3	SARATOGA TEA	14%	6/1	9/2
8	UPPER ECHELON	14%	13/2	5/1
1	TOP THRILLER	11%	8/1	6/1
2	EQUILIBRATE	9%	10/1	8/1
6	SCRAMJET	9%	10/1	8/1
5	SANTIS	7%	12/1	10/1
9	SILVER KNIGHT	4%	25/1	20/1

R3Chalk4Road Show29%5/27/5

How it sets up

dirtLone speedone gets loose on the lead, 9 going

Alone on the lead7

The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. One horse looks alone on the lead, which our pace adjustment credits.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	ROAD SHOW	29%	5/2	7/5
7	CUT DOWN THE NETS	25%	3/1	3/1
5	NYSTATEOFMIND	13%	7/1	5/1
8	ARAWAK	8%	11/1	8/1
9	SWEET REDEMPTION	6%	15/1	12/1
2	WARTOENDALLWARS	6%	15/1	12/1
6	J BUCK	6%	15/1	12/1
3	PRIVATE BANKER	5%	20/1	15/1
1	NEPTUNEROAD RICHIE	3%	30/1	20/1

R4Lean2Lady Rose33%2/19/5

How it sets up

dirtContested3 of 7 want the lead

Go forward1

Pace helps236

Our top-rated horse in an allowance. Three of them want the lead. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 5 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	LADY ROSE	33%	2/1	9/5
6	FEDUPWITHTHEFED	17%	5/1	9/2
5	TOP OF THE TABLE	13%	7/1	3/1
3	LAST GLORY	12%	15/2	8/1
4	FULL POUR	11%	8/1	5/1
7	GRACE REFORMED	8%	11/1	6/1
1	HONEST REASON	6%	15/1	15/1

R6Chalk8Tumoohaat22%7/25/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pace9 going

The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 22% against the board's 22%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
8	TUMOOHAAT	22%	7/2	5/2
6	BELLE N BROOKE	18%	9/2	7/2
3	LIBBY LLOYD	14%	6/1	9/2
5	ONEINAMILLIONGIRL	11%	8/1	6/1
7	FREE VERSE	9%	10/1	8/1
9	GROVES	9%	11/1	8/1
2	V FORMATION	7%	12/1	10/1
1	CLOCK	6%	15/1	12/1
4	RAGS TO ROSES	4%	25/1	20/1

R8Scramble2Card Man18%9/27/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pace10 going

A full field of ten. Nothing separates the top two by more than 1.4 points. We make the top one 18% against the board's 17%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	CARD MAN	18%	9/2	7/2
3	Q B ROCKET	16%	5/1	4/1
8	DAMAVAND	14%	6/1	9/2
1	MCCOY	11%	8/1	6/1
7	DECIMATION	11%	8/1	6/1
6	DALLAS STAR	9%	10/1	8/1
5	KATZ IN THE CRADLE	7%	12/1	10/1
10	VUKOTA	6%	15/1	12/1
4	FARSIDEOFTHEMOON	6%	15/1	12/1
9	HOOKED	2%	30/1	30/1

R11Scramble7Come Full Circle20%4/13/1

How it sets up

dirtContested3 of 8 want the lead

Go forward145

Pace helps28

An open heat. Nothing separates the top two by more than 1.1 points. Three of them want the lead.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
7	COME FULL CIRCLE	20%	4/1	3/1
2	CALLING CARD	19%	9/2	5/2
4	CELTIC PRINCE	17%	5/1	6/1
1	DINNER ROYALE	15%	11/2	7/2
5	MCDIESEL	11%	8/1	6/1
8	SOCIABLY JOHNNY	7%	12/1	8/1
6	TAKAHAMA	5%	20/1	12/1
3	BIG BROOKLYN	5%	20/1	20/1

R12Chalk8Gilbane23%7/25/2

How it sets up

turfEven pace10 going

The board and our number agree in a $50,000 maiden claimer. A full field of ten.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
8	GILBANE	23%	7/2	5/2
1	BEFORE THE WIND	21%	4/1	3/1
10	FIVEDOLLARSFORSOX	14%	13/2	5/1
5	LOBBYIST	8%	11/1	8/1
4	OSIRIS LAW	8%	11/1	8/1
9	MO CURLS	7%	12/1	12/1
6	FOTO	7%	15/1	10/1
3	D C BOY'S	5%	20/1	10/1
2	SHENANIGANS BUCK	4%	25/1	20/1
7	SURFSIDE DAN	4%	25/1	20/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code dd6808c9 · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 7b5952d2150f… · Scratch status checked at 11:23 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

Edge Card runs a proprietary pre-race probability process: market expectations combined with licensed past-performance, pace, field-composition and connections information, evaluated within each race. Exact implementation details are not published. Structured analysis, not a proven edge; tracked publicly either way. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash	`7b5952d2150fa5142c908d689717f7a76afaa2634e25735b58f024d72e6c411e`
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