Del Mar, Sat Aug 15, 2026

10 races · published 11:24 AM ET · card locked

3 value plays today · 7 races we're passing

StatusCompleted · races run

First post2:00 PM PT

Scratch checkChecked · 11:23 AM ET

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Sat Aug 15, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day

4WILDCATTER

Race 2 · 1 mile turf

29%model5/2fair4/1boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+13 pts over the board), the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number, so size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Today at Del MarPartly Sunny, 76°F, wind 5 to 10 mph · rain 2%, no off-track flagNWS forecast

Flags 3 of 10 races

New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.

Today’s plays3 flags

RaceHorseModelBoardEdge

R24Wildcatter29%4/1+13 pts R66Grand Slam Smile37%8/5+7 pts R85Vronti30%5/2+8 pts

Likely bet down All 3 flags today. A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Race 2 · 1 mile · turf · Maiden special weightFlag

4WILDCATTER

Model

Fair

Board

29%

5/2

4/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace8 going

No one horse is entitled to the lead. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It tops our own win number, 11.1 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	WILDCATTER ◀	29%	5/2	4/1
2	ITINERARY	18%	9/2	7/2
5	AUTOMATIC PRESS	16%	5/1	6/1
7	CLEAR AND PRESENT	13%	7/1	3/1
3	WHISKEY BRIDGE	12%	15/2	4/1
1	DANG SON	5%	15/1	8/1
8	OSCAR STORM	4%	20/1	30/1
6	LUBIES PRINCE	3%	30/1	10/1

Race 6 · 1 mile · turf · Stakes, $150,000 purseFlag

6GRAND SLAM SMILE

Model

Fair

Board

37%

9/5

8/5

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Barn angle strong here

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested3 of 12 want the lead

Go forward68

Pace helps25

Three of the 12 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile on turf in a starter allowance should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

GRAND SLAM SMILE is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

It tops our own win number, 24.0 points clear of the next one, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

3 of the 12 want the front over a mile on turf, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	GRAND SLAM SMILE ◀	37%	9/5	8/5
5	TAKE ANOTHER CARD	13%	13/2	5/1
7	CAN'T SLEEP	13%	7/1	4/1
4	LIBERATION	8%	12/1	6/1
2	FIBONACCIS RIDE	6%	15/1	30/1
12	KIKURIDE	5%	20/1	15/1
11	MISO PHANSY	4%	20/1	15/1
1	STOP DIGGING	4%	25/1	20/1
3	QUICK KATE	3%	30/1	20/1
8	CLUBHOUSE CUTIE	3%	30/1	15/1
9	WINK AND A GRIN	3%	30/1	20/1
10	ORANGE THUNDER	2%	50/1	30/1

Race 8 · 1 3/8 miles · turf · Stakes, $100,000 purseFlag

5VRONTI

Model

Fair

Board

30%

5/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

The board and our fair price round to the same number (5/2), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show, it is +7.7 points of win probability, not a longer price.

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace10 going

Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

VRONTI is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

It tops our own win number, 19.8 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	VRONTI ◀	30%	5/2	5/2
6	RESOLVE	10%	9/1	5/1
10	CANDY BAR	10%	9/1	8/1
3	INNOVATIVE	10%	10/1	6/1
9	KENTUCKY GAL	9%	10/1	5/1
11	THE MIZEN QUEEN	8%	11/1	12/1
1	LUBIE'S MUSIC	6%	15/1	8/1
2	PULP FICTION	6%	15/1	12/1
7	ROSELEE MAY	6%	15/1	12/1
4	CAILIN DANA	4%	25/1	15/1

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board

Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R	#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Edge	Why
R11 mile dirtMaiden special weightContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R1	5	WOLF HILL	36%	9/5	7/5	+2	1▲··
R1	1	APPLES Y PEACHES	18%	9/2	3/1	-2	2▼··
R1	4	BOURBON STORY	15%	11/2	5/1	+2	3▲··
R1	3	SWIMMINGLY	13%	7/1	6/1	+1	4···
R1	6	HARMONIQUE	10%	9/1	4/1	-6	6▼··
R1	2	RABID RESPONSE	8%	12/1	15/1	+3	5···
R21 mile turfMaiden special weightEven pace1 flag
R2	4	WILDCATTER	29%	5/2	4/1	+13	1···
R2	2	ITINERARY	18%	9/2	7/2	0	····
R2	5	AUTOMATIC PRESS	16%	5/1	6/1	+5	2···
R2	7	CLEAR AND PRESENT	13%	7/1	3/1	-7	4·B·
R2	3	WHISKEY BRIDGE	12%	15/2	4/1	-4	3···
R2	1	DANG SON	5%	15/1	8/1	-3	6···
R2	8	OSCAR STORM	4%	20/1	30/1	+2	5·B·
R2	6	LUBIES PRINCE	3%	30/1	10/1	-4	7···
R36 furlongs dirtClaiming $20,000, non-winners of three lifetimeEven pacepass
R3	5	WILL BE	34%	2/1	8/5	+3	1···
R3	2	LEAD PIPE JOE	20%	4/1	2/1	-7	3···
R3	6	VANCOUGAR	18%	9/2	4/1	+2	2···
R3	1	B GRAYSON	14%	6/1	4/1	-2	4···
R3	4	ROBARANDO	9%	10/1	12/1	+3	5···
R3	3	FUEGO DEL SOL	6%	15/1	20/1	+2	6···
R45 furlongs turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R4	10	FAIR QUESTION	23%	7/2	3/1	+4	1···
R4	4	MO DIAMANTES	16%	11/2	4/1	0	····
R4	9	A OH GEE	12%	7/1	7/2	-5	4···
R4	5	SIRNAMI	12%	15/2	8/1	+3	2···
R4	1	DELANEYS DREAMER	11%	8/1	8/1	+2	3···
R4	3	SIR DAGONET	9%	10/1	8/1	0	····
R4	7	OM GROWN TOMATOES	7%	15/1	8/1	-2	5·B·
R4	11	BELLO ROSSO	4%	25/1	20/1	0	6·B·
R4	6	MODEST A. P.	2%	50/1	30/1	0	··B·
R4	8	CHAMPS OURAE	2%	50/1	30/1	0	··B·
R4	2	HE GOT LIT	2%	50/1	20/1	-2	7···
R56 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $50,000Contested pace likely (5 early-speed types)pass
R5	4	MISS HELLFIRE	32%	2/1	7/5	-1	1▼··
R5	3	EGYPTIAN MISTRESS	15%	6/1	5/1	+1	2▲··
R5	7	BOURBON AND SPICE	13%	7/1	4/1	-3	6▼··
R5	1	FAMOUS FORZA	12%	7/1	6/1	+1	5···
R5	5	LLAMP	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	3▼··
R5	2	MUSICAL SONG	9%	10/1	10/1	+2	4▼B·
R5	6	NOSOX	8%	11/1	8/1	-1	7▼B·
R61 mile turfStakes, $150,000 purseContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag
R6	6	GRAND SLAM SMILE	37%	9/5	8/5	+7	1▼B·
R6	5	TAKE ANOTHER CARD	13%	13/2	5/1	0	3▲··
R6	7	CAN'T SLEEP	13%	7/1	4/1	-3	2···
R6	4	LIBERATION	8%	12/1	6/1	-3	5···
R6	2	FIBONACCIS RIDE	6%	15/1	30/1	+4	4▲··
R6	12	KIKURIDE	5%	20/1	15/1	0	6···
R6	11	MISO PHANSY	4%	20/1	15/1	0	7···
R6	1	STOP DIGGING	4%	25/1	20/1	0	8···
R6	3	QUICK KATE	3%	30/1	20/1	-1	9···
R6	8	CLUBHOUSE CUTIE	3%	30/1	15/1	-2	12▼··
R6	9	WINK AND A GRIN	3%	30/1	20/1	-1	10···
R6	10	ORANGE THUNDER	2%	50/1	30/1	0	11···
R75 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R7	5	INSHALLAH	27%	5/2	2/1	0	····
R7	1	EMANCIPATE	24%	3/1	5/2	+1	··B·
R7	8	DOMENICI	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R7	3	ABSOLUTION	9%	10/1	8/1	0	··B·
R7	7	BID	9%	10/1	8/1	0	····
R7	4	ICANTHELPMYSELF	9%	11/1	8/1	0	····
R7	2	ARTICULATION	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R7	6	FEDERATION	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R81 3/8 miles turfStakes, $100,000 purseEven pace1 flag
R8	5	VRONTI	30%	5/2	5/2	+8	1···
R8	6	RESOLVE	10%	9/1	5/1	-3	4···
R8	10	CANDY BAR	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	2·B·
R8	3	INNOVATIVE	10%	10/1	6/1	-2	5···
R8	9	KENTUCKY GAL	9%	10/1	5/1	-4	6···
R8	11	THE MIZEN QUEEN	8%	11/1	12/1	+2	3···
R8	1	LUBIE'S MUSIC	6%	15/1	8/1	-2	9·B·
R8	2	PULP FICTION	6%	15/1	12/1	0	7···
R8	7	ROSELEE MAY	6%	15/1	12/1	0	8···
R8	4	CAILIN DANA	4%	25/1	15/1	-1	10···
R95 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden claiming $16,000Contested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass
R9	1	CAPTAIN GABE	23%	7/2	3/1	+4	1···
R9	3	TREXIMO	15%	6/1	5/1	+2	2▼··
R9	2	ATTACK NOW	12%	7/1	6/1	+1	3·B·
R9	9	MY BOX OF LIGHT	9%	10/1	8/1	0	5▲B·
R9	7	BATTLE SCHOOL	9%	10/1	12/1	+3	4▲··
R9	6	MAXXANDER	8%	11/1	5/1	-5	7▼··
R9	5	TACOS AND TEQUILA	8%	11/1	8/1	0	6···
R9	8	CIMARRON STRIP	8%	12/1	5/1	-5	8▼··
R9	4	MISSILE CRUISER	4%	25/1	30/1	+1	9▼··
R9	11	FOUR AMIGOS	4%	25/1	20/1	0	····
R101 mile turfOptional claiming $50,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pacepass
R10	3	STEAK FRIES	19%	9/2	7/2	+1	1···
R10	4	YACOWLEF	14%	6/1	5/1	+1	2···
R10	6	KNOWN IDEA	13%	7/1	8/1	+4	3···
R10	9	LYLE THE CROCODILE	12%	7/1	4/1	-3	4···
R10	11	CATCH THE BREEZE	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	5···
R10	8	BEYOND STOKED	9%	10/1	8/1	0	6···
R10	10	IRISH PROPHET	7%	15/1	12/1	+1	7·B·
R10	1	SARWAR	6%	15/1	12/1	0	8···
R10	5	EL REY REY	6%	15/1	15/1	+1	9···
R10	2	CANANI	3%	30/1	12/1	-3	10···
R10	7	T'CHALLA	2%	50/1	20/1	-2	11·B·

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 10 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

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The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet

R1Lean5Wolf Hill36%9/57/5

How it sets up

dirtContested3 of 6 want the lead

Go forward16

Pace helps45

Our top-rated horse in a maiden special weight. Three of them want the lead. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 2 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	WOLF HILL	36%	9/5	7/5
1	APPLES Y PEACHES	18%	9/2	3/1
4	BOURBON STORY	15%	11/2	5/1
3	SWIMMINGLY	13%	7/1	6/1
6	HARMONIQUE	10%	9/1	4/1
2	RABID RESPONSE	8%	12/1	15/1

R3Lean5Will Be34%2/18/5

How it sets up

dirtEven pace6 going

Our top-rated horse in a $20,000 claimer. We make the top one 34% against the board's 31%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	WILL BE	34%	2/1	8/5
2	LEAD PIPE JOE	20%	4/1	2/1
6	VANCOUGAR	18%	9/2	4/1
1	B GRAYSON	14%	6/1	4/1
4	ROBARANDO	9%	10/1	12/1
3	FUEGO DEL SOL	6%	15/1	20/1

R4Lean10Fair Question23%7/23/1

How it sets up

turfEven pace11 going

Our top-rated horse in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 23% against the board's 20%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 4 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
10	FAIR QUESTION	23%	7/2	3/1
4	MO DIAMANTES	16%	11/2	4/1
9	A OH GEE	12%	7/1	7/2
5	SIRNAMI	12%	15/2	8/1
1	DELANEYS DREAMER	11%	8/1	8/1
3	SIR DAGONET	9%	10/1	8/1
7	OM GROWN TOMATOES	7%	15/1	8/1
11	BELLO ROSSO	4%	25/1	20/1
6	MODEST A. P.	2%	50/1	30/1
8	CHAMPS OURAE	2%	50/1	30/1
2	HE GOT LIT	2%	50/1	20/1

R5Chalk4Miss Hellfire32%2/17/5

How it sets up

dirtContested5 of 7 want the lead

Go forward24567

Pace helps3

The board and our number agree in a $50,000 optional claimer. Five horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	MISS HELLFIRE	32%	2/1	7/5
3	EGYPTIAN MISTRESS	15%	6/1	5/1
7	BOURBON AND SPICE	13%	7/1	4/1
1	FAMOUS FORZA	12%	7/1	6/1
5	LLAMP	10%	9/1	8/1
2	MUSICAL SONG	9%	10/1	10/1
6	NOSOX	8%	11/1	8/1

R7Chalk5Inshallah27%5/22/1

How it sets up

dirtEven pace8 going

The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 27% against the board's 27%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	INSHALLAH	27%	5/2	2/1
1	EMANCIPATE	24%	3/1	5/2
8	DOMENICI	11%	8/1	6/1
3	ABSOLUTION	9%	10/1	8/1
7	BID	9%	10/1	8/1
4	ICANTHELPMYSELF	9%	11/1	8/1
2	ARTICULATION	6%	15/1	12/1
6	FEDERATION	6%	15/1	12/1

R9Lean1Captain Gabe23%7/23/1

How it sets up

dirtContested4 of 10 want the lead

Go forward3468

Pace helps79

Our top-rated horse in a $16,000 maiden claimer. Four horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 4 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	CAPTAIN GABE	23%	7/2	3/1
3	TREXIMO	15%	6/1	5/1
2	ATTACK NOW	12%	7/1	6/1
9	MY BOX OF LIGHT	9%	10/1	8/1
7	BATTLE SCHOOL	9%	10/1	12/1
6	MAXXANDER	8%	11/1	5/1
5	TACOS AND TEQUILA	8%	11/1	8/1
8	CIMARRON STRIP	8%	12/1	5/1
4	MISSILE CRUISER	4%	25/1	30/1
11	FOUR AMIGOS	4%	25/1	20/1

R10Chalk3Steak Fries19%9/27/2

How it sets up

turfEven pace11 going

The board and our number agree in a $50,000 allowance optional claimer. A full field of eleven.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	STEAK FRIES	19%	9/2	7/2
4	YACOWLEF	14%	6/1	5/1
6	KNOWN IDEA	13%	7/1	8/1
9	LYLE THE CROCODILE	12%	7/1	4/1
11	CATCH THE BREEZE	10%	9/1	8/1
8	BEYOND STOKED	9%	10/1	8/1
10	IRISH PROPHET	7%	15/1	12/1
1	SARWAR	6%	15/1	12/1
5	EL REY REY	6%	15/1	15/1
2	CANANI	3%	30/1	12/1
7	T'CHALLA	2%	50/1	20/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code dd6808c9 · takeout (DMR) win 15.43% / exacta 22.68% · card SHA-256 8089db42a62e… · Scratch status checked at 11:23 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

Edge Card runs a proprietary pre-race probability process: market expectations combined with licensed past-performance, pace, field-composition and connections information, evaluated within each race. Exact implementation details are not published. Structured analysis, not a proven edge; tracked publicly either way. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash	`8089db42a62e526afe90f47e692ce3415c2584faabcc207a50f2b3118566fbf4`
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