Saratoga, Fri Aug 14, 2026

10 races · published 11:18 AM ET · card locked

4 value plays today · 6 races we're passing

StatusCompleted · races run

First post1:10 PM ET

Scratch checkChecked · 11:17 AM ET

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Fri Aug 14, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day

6SOUTHERN KISS

Race 2 · 5 1/2 furlongs turf

38%model8/5fair2/1boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+12 pts over the board), the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number, so size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Today at SaratogaMostly Sunny then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms, 80°F, wind 3 mph · rain 32%, no off-track flagNWS forecast

Flags 4 of 10 races

New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.

Today’s plays4 flags

RaceHorseModelBoardEdge

R15First Blessing20%5/1+7 pts R26Southern Kiss38%2/1+12 pts R35Intellect39%9/5+11 pts R96Miss Vyvyanne32%5/2+10 pts

Race 1 · 1 mile · dirt · Optional claiming $75,000Flag

5FIRST BLESSING

Model

Fair

Board

20%

4/1

5/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested4 of 6 want the lead

Pace helps136

Four of the 6 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile on dirt in a $75,000 optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It tops our own win number, 0.6 points clear of the next one, and with 4 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

4 of the 6 want the front over a mile on dirt, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	FIRST BLESSING ◀	20%	4/1	5/1
4	STICKUPWITHOUTAGUN	19%	4/1	3/1
1	INTO THE LIGHT	19%	4/1	3/1
6	WHO'S YOUR ZADDY	18%	9/2	5/2
3	BOLD LOVE	12%	15/2	6/1
2	JETS RIO	11%	8/1	9/2

Race 2 · 5 1/2 furlongs · turf · Maiden special weightFlag

6SOUTHERN KISS

Model

Fair

Board

38%

8/5

2/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace8 going

Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. Nothing in here has shown real early speed on the figures the model reads.

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It tops our own win number, 23.0 points clear of the next one, in a race nobody is clearly entitled to lead.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	SOUTHERN KISS ◀	38%	8/5	2/1
5	EARLY AUTUMN	15%	11/2	4/1
3	MISS MA'AM	12%	7/1	5/1
7	SPLIT THE BLANKET	11%	8/1	7/2
8	NIGHT SKY	9%	10/1	8/1
2	CAYENNE	6%	15/1	12/1
1	WHITE STAR	5%	20/1	15/1
4	DENOS GRACE	4%	25/1	8/1

Race 3 · 1 mile · turf · Optional claiming $80,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterFlag

5INTELLECT

Model

Fair

Board

39%

8/5

9/5

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace7 going

No one horse is entitled to the lead. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

INTELLECT is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

It tops our own win number, 2.7 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	INTELLECT ◀	39%	8/5	9/5
2	COSMIC YEAR	36%	9/5	8/5
4	MAUI STRONG	8%	11/1	5/1
6	PAROS	8%	12/1	4/1
1	MAKES SENSE	4%	25/1	12/1
3	HIGH BETA	3%	30/1	20/1
7	FROSTED OVER	2%	50/1	20/1

Race 9 · 5 1/2 furlongs · turf · Stakes, $200,000 purseFlag

6MISS VYVYANNE

Model

Fair

Board

32%

2/1

5/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested3 of 9 want the lead

Go forward267

Pace helps349

Three of the 9 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five and a half furlongs on turf in a starter allowance should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

MISS VYVYANNE is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

It tops our own win number, 10.6 points clear of the next one, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

3 of the 9 want the front over five and a half furlongs on turf, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	MISS VYVYANNE ◀	32%	2/1	5/2
9	ZEITLOS	21%	7/2	2/1
5	CAPTURING	11%	8/1	5/1
4	LE AMAZONIA	9%	10/1	8/1
7	ITZEL	8%	11/1	8/1
1	ME GOVERNOR	6%	15/1	12/1
2	DELIGHTFUL FLAME	6%	15/1	10/1
3	PRAYING	4%	20/1	12/1
8	RATU JAWA	1%	99/1	50/1

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board

Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R	#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Edge	Why
R11 mile dirtOptional claiming $75,000Contested pace likely (4 early-speed types)1 flag
R1	5	FIRST BLESSING	20%	4/1	5/1	+7	1···
R1	4	STICKUPWITHOUTAGUN	19%	4/1	3/1	0	2···
R1	1	INTO THE LIGHT	19%	4/1	3/1	-1	3▲··
R1	6	WHO'S YOUR ZADDY	18%	9/2	5/2	-4	4▲··
R1	3	BOLD LOVE	12%	15/2	6/1	+1	5▲··
R1	2	JETS RIO	11%	8/1	9/2	-3	6···
R25 1/2 furlongs turfMaiden special weightEven pace1 flag
R2	6	SOUTHERN KISS	38%	8/5	2/1	+12	1···
R2	5	EARLY AUTUMN	15%	11/2	4/1	0	····
R2	3	MISS MA'AM	12%	7/1	5/1	-1	2···
R2	7	SPLIT THE BLANKET	11%	8/1	7/2	-7	3···
R2	8	NIGHT SKY	9%	10/1	8/1	0	····
R2	2	CAYENNE	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R2	1	WHITE STAR	5%	20/1	15/1	0	····
R2	4	DENOS GRACE	4%	25/1	8/1	-5	4···
R31 mile turfOptional claiming $80,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pace1 flag
R3	5	INTELLECT	39%	8/5	9/5	+11	1···
R3	2	COSMIC YEAR	36%	9/5	8/5	+6	2···
R3	4	MAUI STRONG	8%	11/1	5/1	-5	3···
R3	6	PAROS	8%	12/1	4/1	-8	4···
R3	1	MAKES SENSE	4%	25/1	12/1	-2	6···
R3	3	HIGH BETA	3%	30/1	20/1	-1	5···
R3	7	FROSTED OVER	2%	50/1	20/1	-2	7···
R47 furlongs dirtClaiming $55,000, non-winners of two lifetimeEven pacepass
R4	4	TOGA D'ORO	22%	7/2	5/2	-1	1···
R4	5	ABRIGADO	19%	4/1	7/2	+2	2···
R4	6	NEIGH BABY	13%	7/1	9/2	-1	5···
R4	7	SWAGING	13%	7/1	5/1	0	4···
R4	3	FREAKY	12%	7/1	12/1	+6	3···
R4	1	HOT PROPERTY	11%	8/1	6/1	0	6···
R4	2	DAIQUIRI SOMMELIER	10%	9/1	4/1	-5	7···
R51 mile dirtMaiden claiming $85,000Even pacepass
R5	6	OLD TIME ROCKNROLL	20%	4/1	2/1	-6	3···
R5	1	DISPARATE IMPACT	15%	11/2	6/1	+4	1···
R5	7	STREAM IT	15%	11/2	3/1	-5	5···
R5	8	ASKED AND ANSWERED	13%	7/1	8/1	+4	2···
R5	4	KNOWLEDGE SHARING	12%	15/2	6/1	+1	4···
R5	2	GORDY	11%	9/1	5/1	-2	7···
R5	3	OVECHKIN	9%	10/1	15/1	+4	6···
R5	5	BEDEVILED	6%	15/1	12/1	0	8···
R61 1/16 miles turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R6	8	BALIAGE	23%	7/2	5/2	+1	····
R6	10	MEL WENT HOME	16%	11/2	9/2	+1	1···
R6	5	CUT YOUR LOSSES	12%	15/2	6/1	0	····
R6	9	INTO FOREVER	11%	15/2	6/1	0	····
R6	4	MAY DECEMBER	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R6	6	LITTLEBERRY	9%	11/1	8/1	0	····
R6	2	WHATEVER IT TAKES	8%	11/1	8/1	0	····
R6	1	INFURIATA	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R6	7	BOURBON MADNESS	3%	30/1	20/1	-1	2···
R6	3	DIVINE SUNSHINE	1%	99/1	30/1	-1	3···
R71 1/8 miles dirtClaiming $16,000Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R7	7	GLEN AIRY	28%	5/2	8/5	-2	1▲··
R7	5	SHARP SPARK	16%	5/1	5/1	+3	2···
R7	9	APALTA	15%	11/2	9/2	+1	3▲··
R7	8	INDY RAGS	12%	15/2	6/1	+1	4···
R7	4	FEVER NIGHT	10%	9/1	6/1	-1	5▼··
R7	1	HEY TOBY	6%	15/1	12/1	0	6···
R7	6	PINEAPPLE MAN	6%	15/1	8/1	-3	7▼··
R7	2	LAUGHING BOY	3%	30/1	30/1	+1	8▼··
R7	3	GOOD BALI	3%	30/1	30/1	+1	9···
R87 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $80,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R8	7	BOLD STRENGTH	22%	7/2	3/1	+3	1···
R8	2	CONTRARY THINKING	18%	9/2	5/2	-4	2▼··
R8	1	RIDGEWOOD RUNNER	16%	11/2	4/1	0	4▲··
R8	4	VIBRANT EXPRESS	13%	13/2	6/1	+2	3···
R8	5	ELIMINATE	11%	8/1	9/2	-3	7···
R8	3	COMMUTED	11%	8/1	8/1	+2	5▲··
R8	6	OTELLO	9%	11/1	8/1	0	6▼··
R95 1/2 furlongs turfStakes, $200,000 purseContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag
R9	6	MISS VYVYANNE	32%	2/1	5/2	+10	1▼··
R9	9	ZEITLOS	21%	7/2	2/1	-5	2▲··
R9	5	CAPTURING	11%	8/1	5/1	-2	4···
R9	4	LE AMAZONIA	9%	10/1	8/1	+1	5▲··
R9	7	ITZEL	8%	11/1	8/1	0	3▼··
R9	1	ME GOVERNOR	6%	15/1	12/1	0	6···
R9	2	DELIGHTFUL FLAME	6%	15/1	10/1	-1	7▼··
R9	3	PRAYING	4%	20/1	12/1	-2	8▲··
R9	8	RATU JAWA	1%	99/1	50/1	0	9···
R101 1/16 miles turfMaiden claiming $85,000Even pacepass
R10	2	ABOUT FACE	26%	3/1	2/1	+1	1···
R10	5	MORTAL LOCK	16%	11/2	6/1	+5	2···
R10	8	DUTY	13%	13/2	5/1	0	3···
R10	1	VIVALDI	12%	7/1	4/1	-3	4···
R10	4	MINOTAUR	9%	10/1	6/1	-2	6···
R10	7	LANGUID	9%	10/1	6/1	-2	7···
R10	3	MELODY MAN	8%	12/1	8/1	0	8···
R10	9	LUZ DE GUIA	6%	15/1	20/1	+3	5···
R10	6	GHOST DRIVER	1%	99/1	30/1	-1	9···

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 10 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet

R4Chalk4Toga D'Oro22%7/25/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pace7 going

The board and our number agree in a $55,000 claimer. We make the top one 22% against the board's 22%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	TOGA D'ORO	22%	7/2	5/2
5	ABRIGADO	19%	4/1	7/2
6	NEIGH BABY	13%	7/1	9/2
7	SWAGING	13%	7/1	5/1
3	FREAKY	12%	7/1	12/1
1	HOT PROPERTY	11%	8/1	6/1
2	DAIQUIRI SOMMELIER	10%	9/1	4/1

R5Chalk6Old Time Rocknroll20%4/12/1

How it sets up

dirtEven pace8 going

The board and our number agree in a $85,000 maiden claimer. Nothing in the price worth taking. We make the favourite, #6 OLD TIME ROCKNROLL, 20% against the board's 26%, shorter than we think it should be. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	OLD TIME ROCKNROLL	20%	4/1	2/1
1	DISPARATE IMPACT	15%	11/2	6/1
7	STREAM IT	15%	11/2	3/1
8	ASKED AND ANSWERED	13%	7/1	8/1
4	KNOWLEDGE SHARING	12%	15/2	6/1
2	GORDY	11%	9/1	5/1
3	OVECHKIN	9%	10/1	15/1
5	BEDEVILED	6%	15/1	12/1

R6Chalk8Baliage23%7/25/2

How it sets up

turfEven pace10 going

The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. A full field of ten.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
8	BALIAGE	23%	7/2	5/2
10	MEL WENT HOME	16%	11/2	9/2
5	CUT YOUR LOSSES	12%	15/2	6/1
9	INTO FOREVER	11%	15/2	6/1
4	MAY DECEMBER	11%	8/1	6/1
6	LITTLEBERRY	9%	11/1	8/1
2	WHATEVER IT TAKES	8%	11/1	8/1
1	INFURIATA	6%	15/1	12/1
7	BOURBON MADNESS	3%	30/1	20/1
3	DIVINE SUNSHINE	1%	99/1	30/1

R7Chalk7Glen Airy28%5/28/5

How it sets up

dirtContested3 of 9 want the lead

Go forward246

Pace helps79

The board and our number agree in a $16,000 claimer. Three of them want the lead.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
7	GLEN AIRY	28%	5/2	8/5
5	SHARP SPARK	16%	5/1	5/1
9	APALTA	15%	11/2	9/2
8	INDY RAGS	12%	15/2	6/1
4	FEVER NIGHT	10%	9/1	6/1
1	HEY TOBY	6%	15/1	12/1
6	PINEAPPLE MAN	6%	15/1	8/1
2	LAUGHING BOY	3%	30/1	30/1
3	GOOD BALI	3%	30/1	30/1

R8Lean7Bold Strength22%7/23/1

How it sets up

dirtContested3 of 7 want the lead

Go forward26

Pace helps13

Our top-rated horse in a $80,000 allowance optional claimer. Three of them want the lead. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
7	BOLD STRENGTH	22%	7/2	3/1
2	CONTRARY THINKING	18%	9/2	5/2
1	RIDGEWOOD RUNNER	16%	11/2	4/1
4	VIBRANT EXPRESS	13%	13/2	6/1
5	ELIMINATE	11%	8/1	9/2
3	COMMUTED	11%	8/1	8/1
6	OTELLO	9%	11/1	8/1

R10Chalk2About Face26%3/12/1

How it sets up

turfEven pace9 going

The board and our number agree in a $85,000 maiden claimer. We make the top one 26% against the board's 25%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	ABOUT FACE	26%	3/1	2/1
5	MORTAL LOCK	16%	11/2	6/1
8	DUTY	13%	13/2	5/1
1	VIVALDI	12%	7/1	4/1
4	MINOTAUR	9%	10/1	6/1
7	LANGUID	9%	10/1	6/1
3	MELODY MAN	8%	12/1	8/1
9	LUZ DE GUIA	6%	15/1	20/1
6	GHOST DRIVER	1%	99/1	30/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 45b3e059 · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 82f43a1c410c… · Scratch status checked at 11:17 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

Edge Card runs a proprietary pre-race probability process: market expectations combined with licensed past-performance, pace, field-composition and connections information, evaluated within each race. Exact implementation details are not published. Structured analysis, not a proven edge; tracked publicly either way. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash	`82f43a1c410ca947dc5272181a321247f606798735b0c53720a41dc49d629a89`
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