Saratoga & Del Mar · 2026 Meets · Model v0-heuristic-1.4 the anti-tout
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Del Mar, Fri Aug 14, 2026

3 value plays today · 5 races we're passing
StatusCompleted · races run
First post2:00 PM PT
Scratch checkChecked · 11:17 AM ET
Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Fri Aug 14, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day
4DANZING DAISY
Race 8 · 1 mile turf
31%model2/1fair5/1boardWINpaid at the close
Our biggest edge on the card today (+18 pts over the board), the price may move either way into post; you’re paid the close. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.
Today at Del MarPartly Sunny, 75°F, wind 5 to 10 mph · rain 4%, no off-track flagNWS forecast
Flags 3 of 8 races
Race 4 · 1 mile · turf · Claiming $32,000FlagShare
10ZALAMO
Model
Fair
Board
18%
9/2
6/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more9/2 break-even6/1 board
Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Contested3 of 10 want the lead
Pace helps379

Three of the 10 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile on turf in a $32,000 claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It tops our own win number, 1.4 points clear of the next one, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

3 of the 10 want the front over a mile on turf, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
10ZALAMO 18%9/26/1
6MR. LEASURE16%5/17/2
4MUBTADAA16%11/26/1
1AH JEEZ13%7/14/1
3UNCLE HAPPY10%9/112/1
9MARY'S BOY BOLT7%12/18/1
7LAHAINA FLAVOR6%15/120/1
2DOUBLE NEAT6%15/16/1
5PHOSPHORESCENCE5%20/110/1
8DEALERS SPECIAL3%30/112/1
Race 6 · 5 furlongs · turf · Optional claiming $20,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterFlagShare
2POKERKNIGHTATVEES
Model
Fair
Board
24%
3/1
8/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more3/1 break-even8/1 board
Price should hold A long board price the late money tends to leave alone, so you should still get a strong number at post, the fullest version of the edge.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Contested5 of 9 want the lead
Go forward23
Pace helps14

Five of the 9 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five furlongs on turf in a $20,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It tops our own win number, 3.2 points clear of the next one, and with 5 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

5 of the 9 want the front over five furlongs on turf, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
2POKERKNIGHTATVEES 24%3/18/1
1FRANK BULLITT20%4/13/1
8BALLYVAUGHAN GIG13%13/25/1
4LUCKY N SMART11%8/19/2
5THE G M9%10/18/1
9JACK FISH6%15/14/1
6DEVIL BE ME6%15/115/1
7MO HOLLAND DRIVE6%15/18/1
3MAKER AND SONS4%25/120/1
Race 8 · 1 mile · turf · Maiden claiming $50,000FlagShare
4DANZING DAISY
Model
Fair
Board
31%
2/1
5/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more2/1 break-even5/1 board
Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Even pace10 going

No one horse is entitled to the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Nothing in here has shown real early speed on the figures the model reads.

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It tops our own win number, 14.6 points clear of the next one, in a race nobody is clearly entitled to lead.

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
4DANZING DAISY 31%2/15/1
3RISKY PLEASURE16%5/17/2
1NATIVE EMPRESS12%15/28/1
10BARRA ROZA9%10/18/1
2PRINCESSES PHOEBE7%12/16/1
9HUMIDITY6%15/14/1
8UNUSUAL CRAVING6%15/18/1
7NANCY TWO POINT O6%15/16/1
5KITTY MAC4%20/130/1
6AMOR SECRETO3%30/130/1
The whole card every runner, our number beside the board
Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R#HorseModelFairBoardEdgeWhy
R15 1/2 furlongs dirtClaiming $12,500Contested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass
R11JALISCO23%7/23/1+31··
R13STANFORD DROPOUT22%7/22/1-42··
R17JOKER WENT WILD14%6/14/1-23··
R12ORIGINAL ONE13%13/26/1+24···
R16CHASE N RYAN12%15/25/1-16··
R14CRUCIBLE9%10/120/1+55···
R15EIELSON7%12/18/1-27··
R21 mile turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R24LET HER FLY26%3/15/2+31···
R25QUEENOFTHEWILD18%9/27/20····
R21JANIE NOT JEANIE14%6/14/1-22···
R23OGLE13%13/25/10····
R22VENDETTA11%8/16/10····
R26VINTAGE QUEEN9%10/18/10····
R27MISS PARISIAN9%10/18/10····
R31 mile dirtClaiming $25,000Lone speedpass
R33CHE26%3/18/5-51···
R32CIRCUIT BREAKER17%9/27/202···
R31CURLY'S AGENDA16%11/24/103···
R34REDIAL13%13/24/1-34···
R37STRAIGHT BUZZIN13%13/28/1+45··
R36SKYQUIST10%9/112/1+36···
R35AMADOR4%20/120/1+17···
R41 mile turfClaiming $32,000Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag
R410ZALAMO18%9/26/1+61···
R46MR. LEASURE16%5/17/2-13···
R44MUBTADAA16%11/26/1+42···
R41AH JEEZ13%7/14/1-34···
R43UNCLE HAPPY10%9/112/1+35··
R49MARY'S BOY BOLT7%12/18/1-27··
R47LAHAINA FLAVOR6%15/120/1+26··
R42DOUBLE NEAT6%15/16/1-59···
R45PHOSPHORESCENCE5%20/110/1-28···
R48DEALERS SPECIAL3%30/112/1-310···
R56 furlongs dirtMaiden claiming $32,000Even pacepass
R56JETWAY30%5/27/5-31···
R54BROHEIM20%4/13/102···
R52PRACTICAL JACK14%6/16/1+33···
R55KORE KINETIC11%8/18/1+24···
R51FREDDY FIVE FOUR10%9/18/1+15···
R53ELUSIVE CON9%10/16/1-36···
R57ZENJIN6%15/112/10····
R65 furlongs turfOptional claiming $20,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (5 early-speed types)1 flag
R62POKERKNIGHTATVEES24%3/18/1+151··
R61FRANK BULLITT20%4/13/102··
R68BALLYVAUGHAN GIG13%13/25/103···
R64LUCKY N SMART11%8/19/2-35··
R65THE G M9%10/18/104···
R69JACK FISH6%15/14/1-109···
R66DEVIL BE ME6%15/115/1+16···
R67MO HOLLAND DRIVE6%15/18/1-38···
R63MAKER AND SONS4%25/120/107··
R76 1/2 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $50,000Contested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass
R76HOWIE'S LAW25%3/17/5-92··
R75WALL STREET22%7/23/1+21··
R71GOT'M COT'M17%5/14/1+13···
R72PALMER BEACH10%9/112/1+45···
R73KING STEPHEN9%10/18/107··
R77TAMARANDO BEACH9%10/112/1+34··
R74AGROWEST8%12/18/1-16··
R81 mile turfMaiden claiming $50,000Even pace1 flag
R84DANZING DAISY31%2/15/1+181···
R83RISKY PLEASURE16%5/17/2-12···
R81NATIVE EMPRESS12%15/28/1+33···
R810BARRA ROZA9%10/18/10····
R82PRINCESSES PHOEBE7%12/16/1-45···
R89HUMIDITY6%15/14/1-109···
R88UNUSUAL CRAVING6%15/18/1-37···
R87NANCY TWO POINT O6%15/16/1-68···
R85KITTY MAC4%20/130/1+24···
R86AMOR SECRETO3%30/130/1+16···

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 8 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet
R1Lean1Jalisco23%7/23/1
How it sets up
dirtContested4 of 7 want the lead
Go forward357
Pace helps16
Our top-rated horse in a $12,500 claimer. Four horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
1JALISCO23%7/23/1
3STANFORD DROPOUT22%7/22/1
7JOKER WENT WILD14%6/14/1
2ORIGINAL ONE13%13/26/1
6CHASE N RYAN12%15/25/1
4CRUCIBLE9%10/120/1
5EIELSON7%12/18/1
R2Lean4Let Her Fly26%3/15/2
How it sets up
turfEven pace7 going
Our top-rated horse in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 26% against the board's 23%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
4LET HER FLY26%3/15/2
5QUEENOFTHEWILD18%9/27/2
1JANIE NOT JEANIE14%6/14/1
3OGLE13%13/25/1
2VENDETTA11%8/16/1
6VINTAGE QUEEN9%10/18/1
7MISS PARISIAN9%10/18/1
R3Chalk3Che26%3/18/5
How it sets up
dirtLone speedone gets loose on the lead, 7 going
Alone on the lead7
The board and our number agree in a $25,000 claimer. One horse looks alone on the lead, which our pace adjustment credits.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
3CHE26%3/18/5
2CIRCUIT BREAKER17%9/27/2
1CURLY'S AGENDA16%11/24/1
4REDIAL13%13/24/1
7STRAIGHT BUZZIN13%13/28/1
6SKYQUIST10%9/112/1
5AMADOR4%20/120/1
R5Chalk6Jetway30%5/27/5
How it sets up
dirtEven pace7 going
The board and our number agree in a $32,000 maiden claimer. We make the top one 30% against the board's 33%.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
6JETWAY30%5/27/5
4BROHEIM20%4/13/1
2PRACTICAL JACK14%6/16/1
5KORE KINETIC11%8/18/1
1FREDDY FIVE FOUR10%9/18/1
3ELUSIVE CON9%10/16/1
7ZENJIN6%15/112/1
R7Chalk6Howie's Law25%3/17/5
How it sets up
dirtContested4 of 7 want the lead
Go forward4567
Pace helps3
The board and our number agree in a $50,000 optional claimer. Four horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. We make the favourite, #6 HOWIE'S LAW, 25% against the board's 34%, shorter than we think it should be. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
6HOWIE'S LAW25%3/17/5
5WALL STREET22%7/23/1
1GOT'M COT'M17%5/14/1
2PALMER BEACH10%9/112/1
3KING STEPHEN9%10/18/1
7TAMARANDO BEACH9%10/112/1
4AGROWEST8%12/18/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 45b3e059 · takeout (DMR) win 15.43% / exacta 22.68% · card SHA-256 2faf53de0ee2… · Scratch status checked at 11:17 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

Edge Card runs a proprietary pre-race probability process: market expectations combined with licensed past-performance, pace, field-composition and connections information, evaluated within each race. Exact implementation details are not published. Structured analysis, not a proven edge; tracked publicly either way. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

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