Saratoga, Sun Aug 9, 2026

11 races · published 10:58 AM ET · card locked

4 value plays today · 7 races we're passing

StatusCompleted · races run

First post1:10 PM ET

Scratch checkChecked · 10:58 AM ET

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Sun Aug 9, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day

1CAPRICIOUS OUTCOME

Race 6 · 1 mile turf

38%model8/5fair5/2boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+16 pts over the board), the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number, so size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Today at SaratogaSunny, 84°F, wind 9 mph · rain 0%, no off-track flagNWS forecast

Flags 4 of 11 races

New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.

Today’s plays4 flags

RaceHorseModelBoardEdge

R58All Star Leigh29%5/2+7 pts R61Capricious Outcome38%5/2+16 pts R105Ciao Chuck28%7/2+11 pts R113Bostontonian14%8/1+6 pts

Race 5 · 5 1/2 furlongs · turf · Maiden special weightFlag

8ALL STAR LEIGH

Model

Fair

Board

29%

5/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

The board and our fair price round to the same number (5/2), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show, it is +6.9 points of win probability, not a longer price.

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace12 going

Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Nothing in here has shown real early speed on the figures the model reads.

The model’s read ▾

ALL STAR LEIGH is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

It tops our own win number, 15.0 points clear of the next one, in a race nobody is clearly entitled to lead.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
8	ALL STAR LEIGH ◀	29%	5/2	5/2
9	DEUCE DANCER	14%	6/1	9/2
3	CYBER CLOUD	11%	8/1	6/1
6	CARPET CITY	9%	11/1	8/1
10	LEYTON ORIENT	7%	12/1	10/1
1	FIRE ANGEL	7%	12/1	10/1
4	SAINT DYMPHNA	5%	20/1	6/1
2	KINBOSHI	5%	20/1	15/1
7	BUCCHERITA	4%	25/1	20/1
5	NATER TOT	4%	25/1	20/1
11	THE PAPER LADY	4%	25/1	20/1
12	COMETS CHOICE	1%	99/1	30/1

Race 6 · 1 mile · turf · Claiming $35,000, non-winners of two lifetimeFlag

1CAPRICIOUS OUTCOME

Model

Fair

Board

38%

8/5

5/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested4 of 11 want the lead

Go forward3710

Pace helps125

Four of the 11 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile on turf in a $35,000 claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It tops our own win number, 26.0 points clear of the next one, and with 4 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

4 of the 11 want the front over a mile on turf, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	CAPRICIOUS OUTCOME ◀	38%	8/5	5/2
11	VINTAGE VINO	12%	7/1	5/1
2	PRINTER'S ALLEY	9%	10/1	9/2
8	ROYAL BROWNE	8%	11/1	6/1
10	I CAN SEE THAT	8%	12/1	10/1
5	LAWYER MASON	6%	15/1	10/1
9	JETER	6%	15/1	12/1
7	EXHIBITION ONLY	4%	20/1	10/1
3	TAKE A STANCE	3%	30/1	15/1
4	KINGS DANCER	2%	30/1	30/1
6	FUNKY SEE FUNKY DO	2%	50/1	15/1

Race 10 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Optional claiming $45,000Flag

5CIAO CHUCK

Model

Fair

Board

28%

5/2

7/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace12 going

No one horse is entitled to the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

It tops our own win number, 12.9 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	CIAO CHUCK ◀	28%	5/2	7/2
8	HARD CIRCLE	15%	11/2	9/2
10	BLAST FURNACE	9%	10/1	6/1
4	PINELAND	8%	11/1	8/1
2	GUN BARREL CITY	8%	12/1	6/1
1	THE PADDOCK PASTOR	7%	12/1	8/1
9	ENGLISH CASTLE	6%	15/1	10/1
3	OUTSOURCE	6%	15/1	10/1
11	MAXIMUM PROMISE	5%	20/1	12/1
6	SILVER FRONT	3%	30/1	30/1
12	CHIPS AND FISH	2%	30/1	15/1
7	BACK IN THE SADDLE	2%	50/1	50/1

Race 11 · 5 1/2 furlongs · turf · Allowance $120,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterFlag

3BOSTONTONIAN

Model

Fair

Board

14%

6/1

8/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price should hold A long board price the late money tends to leave alone, so you should still get a strong number at post, the fullest version of the edge.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested4 of 10 want the lead

Go forward3710

Pace helps259

Four of the 10 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five and a half furlongs on turf in an allowance should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It rates second on our own win number, 4.7 points behind the top, and with 4 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

4 of the 10 want the front over five and a half furlongs on turf, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
9	BOSUN	19%	4/1	7/2
3	BOSTONTONIAN ◀	14%	6/1	8/1
6	SHIRL'S SOUL TOWN	12%	15/2	9/2
5	MISSION IMPROBABLE	11%	8/1	6/1
7	GRUNGE	11%	8/1	9/2
1	AFTER TAXES	10%	9/1	8/1
2	BRIGHTLINE BULLET	8%	11/1	10/1
4	PAIR OF SOCKS	5%	20/1	20/1
10	ORTLEY AVENUE	5%	20/1	6/1
8	INTO DIAMONDS	4%	25/1	15/1

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board

Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R	#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Edge	Why
R16 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightLone speedpass
R1	3	POISE	31%	2/1	2/1	+5	1▲··
R1	2	FROLICKING	28%	5/2	9/5	0	2···
R1	1	GLOW OF A ROSE	22%	7/2	2/1	-4	3···
R1	4	CHESTNUT	10%	9/1	6/1	-1	4···
R1	5	EPISODIC	8%	11/1	8/1	-1	····
R21 1/16 miles turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R2	3	PAY THE PIPER	23%	7/2	3/1	+3	1···
R2	4	QUICK PICK	23%	7/2	5/2	0	····
R2	1	HOUSING MARKET	18%	9/2	7/2	0	····
R2	2	FELINE CURIOUS	14%	6/1	9/2	0	2···
R2	5	DEMOCRACY DEFENDER	13%	7/1	4/1	-3	3···
R2	6	OKEFENOKEE	10%	9/1	6/1	-1	4···
R31 mile dirtClaiming $20,000, non-winners of three lifetimeContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R3	3	ROYAL BOBBIE	24%	3/1	2/1	-2	2▲··
R3	10	BELLE CHERIE	18%	9/2	4/1	+2	1···
R3	6	CARARRA	12%	15/2	6/1	+1	3▲··
R3	2	BOBBY JEAN	9%	10/1	5/1	-4	7···
R3	4	OSCAR BOUND	9%	10/1	8/1	0	4▼··
R3	5	CALLING AN AUDIBLE	9%	10/1	12/1	+3	5▲··
R3	9	KAREY	8%	11/1	8/1	0	6···
R3	8	THAT'STHEFACTJACK	5%	20/1	15/1	0	8···
R3	1	HAUNTRESS	4%	25/1	20/1	0	9···
R3	7	CARADISE	3%	30/1	30/1	+1	10···
R46 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden claiming $35,000Even pacepass
R4	6	JUST CLASSIC	24%	3/1	2/1	-2	1···
R4	2	MAIN THING	18%	9/2	7/2	0	····
R4	7	CAPT FLUFF N STUFF	16%	11/2	9/2	+2	2···
R4	3	BAKUTO	15%	6/1	5/1	+2	3···
R4	5	NORDIC FYRE	9%	10/1	8/1	0	5···
R4	1	CLASSIC ROCK	9%	10/1	10/1	+2	4···
R4	8	MR. MASHIGINA	7%	15/1	8/1	-2	6···
R4	4	HOLY DANCER	4%	25/1	15/1	-1	7···
R55 1/2 furlongs turfMaiden special weightEven pace1 flag
R5	8	ALL STAR LEIGH	29%	5/2	5/2	+7	1···
R5	9	DEUCE DANCER	14%	6/1	9/2	0	····
R5	3	CYBER CLOUD	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R5	6	CARPET CITY	9%	11/1	8/1	0	····
R5	10	LEYTON ORIENT	7%	12/1	10/1	0	····
R5	1	FIRE ANGEL	7%	12/1	10/1	0	····
R5	4	SAINT DYMPHNA	5%	20/1	6/1	-6	2···
R5	2	KINBOSHI	5%	20/1	15/1	0	····
R5	7	BUCCHERITA	4%	25/1	20/1	0	····
R5	5	NATER TOT	4%	25/1	20/1	0	····
R5	11	THE PAPER LADY	4%	25/1	20/1	0	····
R5	12	COMETS CHOICE	1%	99/1	30/1	-1	3···
R61 mile turfClaiming $35,000, non-winners of two lifetimeContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)1 flag
R6	1	CAPRICIOUS OUTCOME	38%	8/5	5/2	+16	1▲··
R6	11	VINTAGE VINO	12%	7/1	5/1	-1	2···
R6	2	PRINTER'S ALLEY	9%	10/1	9/2	-5	7▲··
R6	8	ROYAL BROWNE	8%	11/1	6/1	-3	4···
R6	10	I CAN SEE THAT	8%	12/1	10/1	+1	3▼··
R6	5	LAWYER MASON	6%	15/1	10/1	-1	6▲··
R6	9	JETER	6%	15/1	12/1	0	5···
R6	7	EXHIBITION ONLY	4%	20/1	10/1	-3	8▼··
R6	3	TAKE A STANCE	3%	30/1	15/1	-1	9▼··
R6	4	KINGS DANCER	2%	30/1	30/1	0	10···
R6	6	FUNKY SEE FUNKY DO	2%	50/1	15/1	-3	11···
R76 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden claiming $85,000Even pacepass
R7	7	LIL TIPSY	23%	7/2	3/1	+3	1···
R7	1	IMMACULATE MOON	19%	9/2	5/2	-3	3···
R7	5	ROSE TO RICHES	19%	9/2	3/1	-1	2···
R7	6	CARA FIORE	15%	11/2	9/2	+1	4···
R7	2	PULLING THREADS	10%	9/1	10/1	+3	5···
R7	4	CHART THE COURSE	7%	15/1	8/1	-2	6···
R7	8	M BS MELANIE CARES	4%	25/1	15/1	-1	7···
R7	3	RED BEACH	4%	25/1	20/1	0	8···
R85 1/2 furlongs turfGrade 2 stakesContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R8	2	TWENTY SIX BLACK	25%	3/1	5/2	+3	1···
R8	3	DONCHO	17%	9/2	3/1	-2	2···
R8	6	JOHN THE BEER MAN	12%	7/1	7/2	-5	5▼··
R8	5	WARALO	12%	7/1	6/1	+1	4▼··
R8	8	REZASROLEX	11%	8/1	10/1	+4	3···
R8	7	WORKS FOR ME	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	6▲··
R8	9	DETERMINED KINGDOM	5%	20/1	15/1	0	7···
R8	1	DANCING BUCK	4%	25/1	15/1	-1	8▼··
R8	4	COPPOLA	3%	30/1	20/1	-1	9···
R97 furlongs dirtAllowance $105,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R9	2	MO FOR THE KING	19%	9/2	5/2	-3	2▲··
R9	1	TRICKY BUSINESS	16%	5/1	5/1	+3	1▼··
R9	6	MAX MONEY	13%	13/2	4/1	-2	4···
R9	4	BLUE ROOF BEAU	12%	7/1	6/1	+1	3▼··
R9	3	ONEBIGBEAUTFULBILL	12%	15/2	7/2	-5	7···
R9	8	EMPIRE SKY	9%	10/1	12/1	+3	6▲··
R9	7	SORORITY PRANK	9%	10/1	12/1	+3	5···
R9	5	CADDIEMASTER	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	8···
R9	9	SEBASTIANTHE FIRST	3%	30/1	30/1	+1	9···
R101 1/16 miles turfOptional claiming $45,000Even pace1 flag
R10	5	CIAO CHUCK	28%	5/2	7/2	+11	1···
R10	8	HARD CIRCLE	15%	11/2	9/2	+1	2···
R10	10	BLAST FURNACE	9%	10/1	6/1	-2	4···
R10	4	PINELAND	8%	11/1	8/1	0	3···
R10	2	GUN BARREL CITY	8%	12/1	6/1	-3	6···
R10	1	THE PADDOCK PASTOR	7%	12/1	8/1	-1	5···
R10	9	ENGLISH CASTLE	6%	15/1	10/1	-1	7···
R10	3	OUTSOURCE	6%	15/1	10/1	-1	8···
R10	11	MAXIMUM PROMISE	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	9···
R10	6	SILVER FRONT	3%	30/1	30/1	+1	10···
R10	12	CHIPS AND FISH	2%	30/1	15/1	-2	12···
R10	7	BACK IN THE SADDLE	2%	50/1	50/1	0	11···
R115 1/2 furlongs turfAllowance $120,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)1 flag
R11	9	BOSUN	19%	4/1	7/2	+2	2▲··
R11	3	BOSTONTONIAN	14%	6/1	8/1	+6	1▼··
R11	6	SHIRL'S SOUL TOWN	12%	15/2	9/2	-2	5···
R11	5	MISSION IMPROBABLE	11%	8/1	6/1	0	6▲··
R11	7	GRUNGE	11%	8/1	9/2	-3	3▼··
R11	1	AFTER TAXES	10%	9/1	8/1	+2	4···
R11	2	BRIGHTLINE BULLET	8%	11/1	10/1	+1	7▲··
R11	4	PAIR OF SOCKS	5%	20/1	20/1	+1	8···
R11	10	ORTLEY AVENUE	5%	20/1	6/1	-6	10▼··
R11	8	INTO DIAMONDS	4%	25/1	15/1	-1	9···

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 11 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet

R1Lean3Poise31%2/12/1

How it sets up

dirtLone speedone gets loose on the lead, 5 going

Alone on the lead3

Our top-rated horse in a maiden special weight. One horse looks alone on the lead, which our pace adjustment credits. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 5 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	POISE	31%	2/1	2/1
2	FROLICKING	28%	5/2	9/5
1	GLOW OF A ROSE	22%	7/2	2/1
4	CHESTNUT	10%	9/1	6/1
5	EPISODIC	8%	11/1	8/1

R2Lean3Pay The Piper23%7/23/1

How it sets up

turfEven pace6 going

Our top-rated horse in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 23% against the board's 19%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	PAY THE PIPER	23%	7/2	3/1
4	QUICK PICK	23%	7/2	5/2
1	HOUSING MARKET	18%	9/2	7/2
2	FELINE CURIOUS	14%	6/1	9/2
5	DEMOCRACY DEFENDER	13%	7/1	4/1
6	OKEFENOKEE	10%	9/1	6/1

R3Chalk3Royal Bobbie24%3/12/1

How it sets up

dirtContested3 of 10 want the lead

Go forward4

Pace helps356

The board and our number agree in a $20,000 claimer. Three of them want the lead.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	ROYAL BOBBIE	24%	3/1	2/1
10	BELLE CHERIE	18%	9/2	4/1
6	CARARRA	12%	15/2	6/1
2	BOBBY JEAN	9%	10/1	5/1
4	OSCAR BOUND	9%	10/1	8/1
5	CALLING AN AUDIBLE	9%	10/1	12/1
9	KAREY	8%	11/1	8/1
8	THAT'STHEFACTJACK	5%	20/1	15/1
1	HAUNTRESS	4%	25/1	20/1
7	CARADISE	3%	30/1	30/1

R4Chalk6Just Classic24%3/12/1

How it sets up

dirtEven pace8 going

The board and our number agree in a $35,000 maiden claimer. We make the top one 24% against the board's 26%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	JUST CLASSIC	24%	3/1	2/1
2	MAIN THING	18%	9/2	7/2
7	CAPT FLUFF N STUFF	16%	11/2	9/2
3	BAKUTO	15%	6/1	5/1
5	NORDIC FYRE	9%	10/1	8/1
1	CLASSIC ROCK	9%	10/1	10/1
8	MR. MASHIGINA	7%	15/1	8/1
4	HOLY DANCER	4%	25/1	15/1

R7Lean7Lil Tipsy23%7/23/1

How it sets up

dirtEven pace8 going

Our top-rated horse in a $85,000 maiden claimer. We make the top one 23% against the board's 20%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
7	LIL TIPSY	23%	7/2	3/1
1	IMMACULATE MOON	19%	9/2	5/2
5	ROSE TO RICHES	19%	9/2	3/1
6	CARA FIORE	15%	11/2	9/2
2	PULLING THREADS	10%	9/1	10/1
4	CHART THE COURSE	7%	15/1	8/1
8	M BS MELANIE CARES	4%	25/1	15/1
3	RED BEACH	4%	25/1	20/1

R8Lean2Twenty Six Black25%3/15/2

How it sets up

turfContested3 of 9 want the lead

Go forward156

Pace helps7

Our top-rated horse in a Grade 2. Three of them want the lead. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	TWENTY SIX BLACK	25%	3/1	5/2
3	DONCHO	17%	9/2	3/1
6	JOHN THE BEER MAN	12%	7/1	7/2
5	WARALO	12%	7/1	6/1
8	REZASROLEX	11%	8/1	10/1
7	WORKS FOR ME	10%	9/1	8/1
9	DETERMINED KINGDOM	5%	20/1	15/1
1	DANCING BUCK	4%	25/1	15/1
4	COPPOLA	3%	30/1	20/1

R9Scramble2Mo For The King19%9/25/2

How it sets up

dirtContested3 of 9 want the lead

Go forward14

Pace helps28

An open heat. Nothing separates the top two by more than 2.8 points. Three of them want the lead.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	MO FOR THE KING	19%	9/2	5/2
1	TRICKY BUSINESS	16%	5/1	5/1
6	MAX MONEY	13%	13/2	4/1
4	BLUE ROOF BEAU	12%	7/1	6/1
3	ONEBIGBEAUTFULBILL	12%	15/2	7/2
8	EMPIRE SKY	9%	10/1	12/1
7	SORORITY PRANK	9%	10/1	12/1
5	CADDIEMASTER	5%	20/1	12/1
9	SEBASTIANTHE FIRST	3%	30/1	30/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 041077ef · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 cef1963caf27… · Scratch status checked at 10:58 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

Edge Card runs a proprietary pre-race probability process: market expectations combined with licensed past-performance, pace, field-composition and connections information, evaluated within each race. Exact implementation details are not published. Structured analysis, not a proven edge; tracked publicly either way. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash	`cef1963caf2744457f68bcfee35b06d2e0a3ec98235a26810aa01082d4f6cf2a`
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