Saratoga, Sat Aug 8, 2026

14 races · published 12:41 PM ET · card locked

4 value plays today · 10 races we're passing

StatusCompleted · races run

First post11:45 AM ET

Scratch checkChecked · 12:40 PM ET

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Sat Aug 8, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day

4WRITE OFF JERRY

Race 7 · 1 3/8 miles turf

16%model5/1fair12/1boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+10 pts over the board), the price should hold, so this is the fullest version of the edge. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Today at SaratogaScattered Showers And Thunderstorms, 86°F, wind 7 mph · rain 40%, off-track / soft-turf riskNWS forecast

Flags 4 of 14 races

New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.

Today’s plays4 flags

RaceHorseModelBoardEdge

R36Yo Daddy24%9/2+10 pts R58Fact23%9/2+8 pts R74Write Off Jerry16%12/1+10 pts R101Rhetorical30%5/2+8 pts

Race 3 · 1 1/8 miles · dirt · Optional claiming $110,000Flag

6YO DADDY

Model

Fair

Board

24%

3/1

9/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested4 of 7 want the lead

Pace helps467

Four of the 7 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile and an eighth on dirt in a $110,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It tops our own win number, 7.5 points clear of the next one, and with 4 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

4 of the 7 want the front over a mile and an eighth on dirt, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

And the day: rain risk (40%), watch for an off track by post, which our number doesn’t account for.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	YO DADDY ◀	24%	3/1	9/2
3	FULL SCREEN	17%	5/1	3/1
4	VIBE	15%	11/2	5/2
7	INSTANT REPLAY	14%	6/1	5/1
1	SAN SIRO	11%	8/1	9/2
2	BRAMITO	10%	9/1	8/1
5	CLASSICIST	9%	10/1	8/1

Race 5 · 7 furlongs · dirt · Allowance $120,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterFlag

8FACT

Model

Fair

Board

23%

7/2

9/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested4 of 8 want the lead

Go forward467

Pace helps358

Four of the 8 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over seven furlongs on dirt in an allowance should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It tops our own win number, 5.1 points clear of the next one, and with 4 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

4 of the 8 want the front over seven furlongs on dirt, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

And the day: rain risk (40%), watch for an off track by post, which our number doesn’t account for.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
8	FACT ◀	23%	7/2	9/2
6	PRETTY BOY MIAH	17%	9/2	2/1
7	TAGERMEEN	14%	6/1	3/1
3	AGOO	12%	7/1	6/1
2	ROCK MUSIC	11%	8/1	6/1
4	PRIVATE DESIRE	9%	10/1	8/1
1	UNBROKEN CHAIN	9%	10/1	12/1
5	PRINCIP	5%	20/1	30/1

Race 7 · 1 3/8 miles · turf · Optional claiming $55,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterFlag

4WRITE OFF JERRY

Model

Fair

Board

16%

5/1

12/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price should hold A long board price the late money tends to leave alone, so you should still get a strong number at post, the fullest version of the edge.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Lone speedone gets loose on the lead, 10 going

Alone on the lead7

One of the 10 looks alone on the lead, clear of the field on the early figures over a mile and three eighths on turf, with nothing else in here entitled to go with it.

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It rates second on our own win number, 4.1 points behind the top, in a race where one of them looks like getting loose on the lead.

In a field of 10 it profiles as the lone speed over a mile and three eighths on turf, likely alone on the lead.

And the day matters here: rain risk (40%) on a turf race. If it comes off the grass or the course goes soft, this read can shift. We don’t price going in advance.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
9	EMERGENCE	20%	4/1	9/2
4	WRITE OFF JERRY ◀	16%	5/1	12/1
5	IRON SIGHT	11%	8/1	4/1
6	JUST FOR LUCK	10%	9/1	6/1
3	GREYSTONE	9%	10/1	6/1
10	IL SICILIANO	8%	11/1	6/1
1	MONTEREY BAY	8%	12/1	6/1
8	FORT THOMAS	8%	12/1	12/1
7	KRAVITZ	6%	15/1	8/1
2	RAMBLIN' WRECK	4%	25/1	15/1

Race 10 · 1 mile · turf · Grade 1 stakesFlag

1RHETORICAL

Model

Fair

Board

30%

5/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

The board and our fair price round to the same number (5/2), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show, it is +7.8 points of win probability, not a longer price.

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested3 of 7 want the lead

Go forward24

Pace helps36

Three of the 7 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile on turf in a Grade 1 should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

RHETORICAL is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

It tops our own win number, 9.1 points clear of the next one, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

3 of the 7 want the front over a mile on turf, so the early fractions should be honest.

And the day matters here: rain risk (40%) on a turf race. If it comes off the grass or the course goes soft, this read can shift. We don’t price going in advance.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	RHETORICAL ◀	30%	5/2	5/2
3	ZULU KINGDOM	21%	4/1	7/2
7	LAGYNOS	18%	9/2	5/1
5	DETERMINISTIC	17%	5/1	2/1
4	CLASSIC Q	5%	15/1	8/1
6	CAPITOL HILL	5%	20/1	10/1
2	MI BAGO	4%	20/1	12/1

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board

Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R	#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Edge	Why
R16 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R1	3	GORILLAZ	23%	7/2	5/2	0	····
R1	7	GAUDREAU	18%	9/2	7/2	0	····
R1	8	HEMINGWAY	15%	6/1	9/2	0	····
R1	5	STAR SALUTE	13%	7/1	5/1	0	····
R1	1	U. S. S. VALOR	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R1	4	WITH LUCK FORWARD	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R1	2	COACH POPE	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R1	9	COACH'S PALS	5%	20/1	15/1	0	····
R1	6	BELLISSIMO D'ORO	5%	20/1	15/1	0	····
R26 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R2	8	MYSTRIX	18%	9/2	7/2	0	····
R2	5	ADMIRALTY	14%	6/1	9/2	0	····
R2	10	IMPLIED OPEN	11%	15/2	6/1	0	····
R2	2	SHARPLY DRESSED	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R2	3	LIVE	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R2	9	CODE OF ARMS	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R2	6	IRON CONFESSOR	9%	11/1	8/1	0	····
R2	4	TOMMY TANG	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R2	7	STONE AGED	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R2	1	MAGICAL MIKEL	3%	30/1	30/1	0	1···
R31 1/8 miles dirtOptional claiming $110,000Contested pace likely (4 early-speed types)1 flag
R3	6	YO DADDY	24%	3/1	9/2	+10	1▲··
R3	3	FULL SCREEN	17%	5/1	3/1	-3	2···
R3	4	VIBE	15%	11/2	5/2	-7	5▲··
R3	7	INSTANT REPLAY	14%	6/1	5/1	+1	3▲··
R3	1	SAN SIRO	11%	8/1	9/2	-3	6···
R3	2	BRAMITO	10%	9/1	8/1	+2	4···
R3	5	CLASSICIST	9%	10/1	8/1	0	7···
R41 1/16 miles turfAllowance $120,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass
R4	8	LOVELY CHRISTINA	19%	9/2	9/2	+5	1▼··
R4	1	CONSUMER SENTIMENT	16%	5/1	2/1	-9	6▲··
R4	4	HAND OVER HEART	16%	5/1	8/1	+8	2▼··
R4	5	CARMENSITA	15%	11/2	5/1	+2	3···
R4	7	SAIL WITH THE WIND	15%	11/2	7/2	-2	4···
R4	6	SCRATCH IT	12%	15/2	6/1	+1	5▲··
R4	3	MERMAID	4%	25/1	20/1	0	7···
R4	9	TWO MARTINI'S	2%	50/1	15/1	-3	9···
R4	2	LADY RIVER LILY	1%	99/1	50/1	-1	8▼··
R57 furlongs dirtAllowance $120,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)1 flag
R5	8	FACT	23%	7/2	9/2	+8	1▲··
R5	6	PRETTY BOY MIAH	17%	9/2	2/1	-9	2▼··
R5	7	TAGERMEEN	14%	6/1	3/1	-6	3▼··
R5	3	AGOO	12%	7/1	6/1	+1	5▲··
R5	2	ROCK MUSIC	11%	8/1	6/1	0	7···
R5	4	PRIVATE DESIRE	9%	10/1	8/1	+1	4▼··
R5	1	UNBROKEN CHAIN	9%	10/1	12/1	+3	6···
R5	5	PRINCIP	5%	20/1	30/1	+2	8▲··
R66 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R6	3	RED POPPY	23%	7/2	5/2	0	····
R6	7	DULCE VITA	14%	6/1	9/2	0	····
R6	6	AERIAL AFFAIR	12%	15/2	5/1	-1	1···
R6	9	SUMMER STARLET	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R6	2	RUM TWIST	9%	10/1	8/1	+1	2···
R6	4	STEFANIA	9%	10/1	8/1	0	····
R6	10	JOY OF LIFE	9%	11/1	8/1	0	····
R6	5	NORAH BEGORRAH	7%	12/1	10/1	0	····
R6	8	BURRATA	4%	25/1	20/1	0	····
R6	1	VIOLET THE ULTRA	3%	30/1	30/1	0	····
R71 3/8 miles turfOptional claiming $55,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterLone speed1 flag
R7	9	EMERGENCE	20%	4/1	9/2	+6	2···
R7	4	WRITE OFF JERRY	16%	5/1	12/1	+10	1···
R7	5	IRON SIGHT	11%	8/1	4/1	-5	5···
R7	6	JUST FOR LUCK	10%	9/1	6/1	-1	4···
R7	3	GREYSTONE	9%	10/1	6/1	-2	6···
R7	10	IL SICILIANO	8%	11/1	6/1	-3	7···
R7	1	MONTEREY BAY	8%	12/1	6/1	-3	8···
R7	8	FORT THOMAS	8%	12/1	12/1	+2	3···
R7	7	KRAVITZ	6%	15/1	8/1	-2	9▲··
R7	2	RAMBLIN' WRECK	4%	25/1	15/1	-1	10···
R81 1/16 miles turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R8	12	AND THE RUNNER IS	20%	4/1	7/2	+3	1···
R8	7	REVENUE STREAM	16%	11/2	4/1	0	····
R8	9	BERTA'S STITCH	10%	9/1	6/1	-1	2···
R8	2	TIME IN MOTION	9%	10/1	8/1	0	····
R8	11	BOLD LEADERSHIP	9%	11/1	8/1	0	····
R8	4	OSCAR	7%	12/1	10/1	0	····
R8	6	PORT IN A STORM	7%	12/1	10/1	0	····
R8	1	DJOKOVIC	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R8	5	JUST JOE	5%	20/1	15/1	0	····
R8	10	AREQUIPE	5%	20/1	15/1	0	3···
R8	8	SURETY	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	4···
R8	3	MO MISERY	2%	50/1	20/1	-2	5···
R97 furlongs dirtGrade 1 stakesContested pace likely (5 early-speed types)pass
R9	7	EXPLORA	21%	4/1	5/2	-1	1···
R9	6	ON TIME GIRL	18%	9/2	7/2	+1	2▲··
R9	1	MOVIE NIGHT	17%	9/2	7/2	0	3▲··
R9	5	GOODALL	13%	7/1	5/1	0	4···
R9	2	PERCY'S BAR	12%	7/1	8/1	+4	5▲··
R9	3	SIPPIN PRETTY	9%	10/1	6/1	-2	6···
R9	4	WHERE LUCK LIVES	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	8▼··
R9	8	CARMEL COAST	5%	20/1	15/1	0	7▼··
R101 mile turfGrade 1 stakesContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag
R10	1	RHETORICAL	30%	5/2	5/2	+8	1···
R10	3	ZULU KINGDOM	21%	4/1	7/2	+4	3▲··
R10	7	LAGYNOS	18%	9/2	5/1	+5	2···
R10	5	DETERMINISTIC	17%	5/1	2/1	-9	4···
R10	4	CLASSIC Q	5%	15/1	8/1	-3	5▼··
R10	6	CAPITOL HILL	5%	20/1	10/1	-2	7▲··
R10	2	MI BAGO	4%	20/1	12/1	-2	6▼··
R111 3/16 miles turfGrade 1 stakesEven pacepass
R11	3	REMEMBER MAMBA	25%	3/1	3/1	+6	1···
R11	4	TITLE ROLE	19%	4/1	9/2	+5	2···
R11	10	WEST END KID	16%	5/1	7/2	-1	3···
R11	5	PACIFIC AVENUE	13%	7/1	5/1	0	4···
R11	6	GLACIUS	8%	11/1	8/1	0	····
R11	9	BOTTAS	6%	15/1	10/1	-1	5···
R11	1	GLAVINE	4%	25/1	12/1	-2	6···
R11	2	HEEERE'S JOHNNY	3%	30/1	12/1	-3	8···
R11	8	MCCREADY	3%	30/1	20/1	-1	7···
R11	7	THE BIG CON	2%	50/1	15/1	-3	9···
R121 1/8 miles dirtGrade 1 stakesEven pacepass
R12	1	MAGNITUDE	21%	4/1	9/5	-7	2···
R12	6	SOVEREIGNTY	18%	9/2	3/1	-1	1···
R12	2	NITROGEN	15%	6/1	4/1	-1	4···
R12	3	ANTIQUARIAN	13%	7/1	10/1	+6	3···
R12	8	BAEZA	12%	7/1	7/2	-5	6···
R12	5	WHITE ABARRIO	10%	9/1	8/1	+2	5···
R12	4	FORGED STEEL	7%	12/1	20/1	+4	7···
R12	7	TIZTASTIC	4%	25/1	30/1	+2	8···
R137 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $55,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R13	8	BATTIS GROVE	25%	3/1	3/1	+6	1▲··
R13	2	FEMINISM	16%	5/1	2/1	-10	5▼··
R13	9	BEACH HEIST	14%	13/2	6/1	+3	2▼··
R13	1	ROMANTIC DANCER	13%	7/1	4/1	-3	3▼··
R13	3	HELEN'S REVENGE	13%	7/1	6/1	+2	4···
R13	5	WILL NOT BE SWAYED	7%	12/1	12/1	+1	6▲··
R13	4	GOLDEN IRISH	6%	15/1	20/1	+2	7···
R13	6	MISS ELLE	5%	20/1	15/1	0	8···
R13	7	MERMAID MAGIC	2%	50/1	30/1	0	9▼··
R141 3/8 miles turfOptional claiming $55,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R14	4	VERSAILLES ROAD	18%	9/2	5/1	+5	2▲··
R14	8	MIZTERTONIC	16%	5/1	8/1	+8	1···
R14	7	COMPLEX AGENDA	15%	11/2	9/2	+1	3▼··
R14	2	CAPITAL PARTNER	14%	6/1	7/2	-3	4···
R14	6	VERY CONNECTED	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	5▲··
R14	10	ROTTERDAM	8%	12/1	10/1	+1	6···
R14	9	STARK	6%	15/1	8/1	-2	7···
R14	3	PRESIDER	5%	20/1	10/1	-2	8···
R14	1	ROTHSCHILD	4%	20/1	8/1	-4	9···
R14	5	LIGHT CAV	3%	30/1	10/1	-4	10···

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 14 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet

R1Chalk3Gorillaz23%7/25/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pace9 going

The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 23% against the board's 22%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	GORILLAZ	23%	7/2	5/2
7	GAUDREAU	18%	9/2	7/2
8	HEMINGWAY	15%	6/1	9/2
5	STAR SALUTE	13%	7/1	5/1
1	U. S. S. VALOR	11%	8/1	6/1
4	WITH LUCK FORWARD	6%	15/1	12/1
2	COACH POPE	6%	15/1	12/1
9	COACH'S PALS	5%	20/1	15/1
6	BELLISSIMO D'ORO	5%	20/1	15/1

R2Scramble8Mystrix18%9/27/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pace10 going

A full field of ten. Nothing separates the top two by more than 3.6 points. We make the top one 18% against the board's 17%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
8	MYSTRIX	18%	9/2	7/2
5	ADMIRALTY	14%	6/1	9/2
10	IMPLIED OPEN	11%	15/2	6/1
2	SHARPLY DRESSED	11%	8/1	6/1
3	LIVE	11%	8/1	6/1
9	CODE OF ARMS	11%	8/1	6/1
6	IRON CONFESSOR	9%	11/1	8/1
4	TOMMY TANG	6%	15/1	12/1
7	STONE AGED	6%	15/1	12/1
1	MAGICAL MIKEL	3%	30/1	30/1

R4Lean8Lovely Christina19%9/29/2

How it sets up

turfContested4 of 9 want the lead

Go forward248

Pace helps16

Our top-rated horse in an allowance. Four horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 5 points. We make the favourite, #1 CONSUMER SENTIMENT, 16% against the board's 26%, shorter than we think it should be. Our own top-rated is #8 LOVELY CHRISTINA. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
8	LOVELY CHRISTINA	19%	9/2	9/2
1	CONSUMER SENTIMENT	16%	5/1	2/1
4	HAND OVER HEART	16%	5/1	8/1
5	CARMENSITA	15%	11/2	5/1
7	SAIL WITH THE WIND	15%	11/2	7/2
6	SCRATCH IT	12%	15/2	6/1
3	MERMAID	4%	25/1	20/1
9	TWO MARTINI'S	2%	50/1	15/1
2	LADY RIVER LILY	1%	99/1	50/1

R6Chalk3Red Poppy23%7/25/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pace10 going

The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. A full field of ten.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	RED POPPY	23%	7/2	5/2
7	DULCE VITA	14%	6/1	9/2
6	AERIAL AFFAIR	12%	15/2	5/1
9	SUMMER STARLET	11%	8/1	6/1
2	RUM TWIST	9%	10/1	8/1
4	STEFANIA	9%	10/1	8/1
10	JOY OF LIFE	9%	11/1	8/1
5	NORAH BEGORRAH	7%	12/1	10/1
8	BURRATA	4%	25/1	20/1
1	VIOLET THE ULTRA	3%	30/1	30/1

R8Lean12And The Runner Is20%4/17/2

How it sets up

turfEven pace12 going

Our top-rated horse in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 20% against the board's 17%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
12	AND THE RUNNER IS	20%	4/1	7/2
7	REVENUE STREAM	16%	11/2	4/1
9	BERTA'S STITCH	10%	9/1	6/1
2	TIME IN MOTION	9%	10/1	8/1
11	BOLD LEADERSHIP	9%	11/1	8/1
4	OSCAR	7%	12/1	10/1
6	PORT IN A STORM	7%	12/1	10/1
1	DJOKOVIC	6%	15/1	12/1
5	JUST JOE	5%	20/1	15/1
10	AREQUIPE	5%	20/1	15/1
8	SURETY	5%	20/1	12/1
3	MO MISERY	2%	50/1	20/1

R9Chalk7Explora21%4/15/2

How it sets up

dirtContested5 of 8 want the lead

Go forward48

Pace helps126

The board and our number agree in a Grade 1. Five horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
7	EXPLORA	21%	4/1	5/2
6	ON TIME GIRL	18%	9/2	7/2
1	MOVIE NIGHT	17%	9/2	7/2
5	GOODALL	13%	7/1	5/1
2	PERCY'S BAR	12%	7/1	8/1
3	SIPPIN PRETTY	9%	10/1	6/1
4	WHERE LUCK LIVES	5%	20/1	12/1
8	CARMEL COAST	5%	20/1	15/1

R11Lean3Remember Mamba25%3/13/1

How it sets up

turfEven pace10 going

Our top-rated horse in a Grade 1. We make the top one 25% against the board's 19%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 6 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	REMEMBER MAMBA	25%	3/1	3/1
4	TITLE ROLE	19%	4/1	9/2
10	WEST END KID	16%	5/1	7/2
5	PACIFIC AVENUE	13%	7/1	5/1
6	GLACIUS	8%	11/1	8/1
9	BOTTAS	6%	15/1	10/1
1	GLAVINE	4%	25/1	12/1
2	HEEERE'S JOHNNY	3%	30/1	12/1
8	MCCREADY	3%	30/1	20/1
7	THE BIG CON	2%	50/1	15/1

R12Chalk1Magnitude21%4/19/5

How it sets up

dirtEven pace8 going

The board and our number agree in a Grade 1. Nothing in the price worth taking. We make the favourite, #1 MAGNITUDE, 21% against the board's 27%, shorter than we think it should be. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	MAGNITUDE	21%	4/1	9/5
6	SOVEREIGNTY	18%	9/2	3/1
2	NITROGEN	15%	6/1	4/1
3	ANTIQUARIAN	13%	7/1	10/1
8	BAEZA	12%	7/1	7/2
5	WHITE ABARRIO	10%	9/1	8/1
4	FORGED STEEL	7%	12/1	20/1
7	TIZTASTIC	4%	25/1	30/1

R13Lean8Battis Grove25%3/13/1

How it sets up

dirtContested3 of 9 want the lead

Go forward1279

Pace helps58

Our top-rated horse in a $55,000 allowance optional claimer. Three of them want the lead. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 6 points. We make the favourite, #2 FEMINISM, 16% against the board's 26%, shorter than we think it should be. Our own top-rated is #8 BATTIS GROVE. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
8	BATTIS GROVE	25%	3/1	3/1
2	FEMINISM	16%	5/1	2/1
9	BEACH HEIST	14%	13/2	6/1
1	ROMANTIC DANCER	13%	7/1	4/1
3	HELEN'S REVENGE	13%	7/1	6/1
5	WILL NOT BE SWAYED	7%	12/1	12/1
4	GOLDEN IRISH	6%	15/1	20/1
6	MISS ELLE	5%	20/1	15/1
7	MERMAID MAGIC	2%	50/1	30/1

R14Lean4Versailles Road18%9/25/1

How it sets up

turfContested3 of 10 want the lead

Go forward7

Pace helps46

Our number likes this one in a $55,000 allowance optional claimer, though it is not the top figure. Three of them want the lead. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 5 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	VERSAILLES ROAD	18%	9/2	5/1
8	MIZTERTONIC	16%	5/1	8/1
7	COMPLEX AGENDA	15%	11/2	9/2
2	CAPITAL PARTNER	14%	6/1	7/2
6	VERY CONNECTED	10%	9/1	8/1
10	ROTTERDAM	8%	12/1	10/1
9	STARK	6%	15/1	8/1
3	PRESIDER	5%	20/1	10/1
1	ROTHSCHILD	4%	20/1	8/1
5	LIGHT CAV	3%	30/1	10/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 041077ef · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 5d303a6f6a27… · Scratch status checked at 12:40 PM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

Edge Card runs a proprietary pre-race probability process: market expectations combined with licensed past-performance, pace, field-composition and connections information, evaluated within each race. Exact implementation details are not published. Structured analysis, not a proven edge; tracked publicly either way. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash	`5d303a6f6a2793142b641935487ff26768f9d0c5c45304a3a0a26625db0a66c2`
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