Del Mar, Sat Aug 8, 2026

10 races · published 12:41 PM ET · card locked

4 value plays today · 7 races we're passing

StatusCompleted · races run

First post2:00 PM PT

Scratch checkChecked · 12:40 PM ET

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Sat Aug 8, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day

5CODE DUELLO

Race 4 · 5 furlongs turf

33%model2/1fair7/2boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+15 pts over the board), the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number, so size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Today at Del MarMostly Sunny, 79°F, wind 5 to 10 mph · rain 0%, no off-track flagNWS forecast

Flags 4 of 10 races

New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.

Today’s plays4 flags

RaceHorseModelBoardEdge

R45Code Duello33%7/2+15 pts R66Conquer We Must23%7/2+5 pts R82Sweet Rebecca29%7/2+11 pts R86Warming18%6/1+7 pts

Race 4 · 5 furlongs · turf · Claiming $25,000Flag

5CODE DUELLO

Model

Fair

Board

33%

2/1

7/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace10 going

Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It tops our own win number, 20.5 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	CODE DUELLO ◀	33%	2/1	7/2
1	JETOVATOR	12%	7/1	4/1
7	REGAL PATRIOT	11%	8/1	5/1
4	TIGERHON	11%	8/1	6/1
9	FULANITO	9%	10/1	8/1
8	AGENCY	7%	12/1	8/1
6	MALIBU COAST	6%	15/1	12/1
3	HARCYN	5%	20/1	8/1
2	SHARP AZA TACK	4%	25/1	15/1
10	MIDNITE MUSKET	3%	30/1	20/1

Race 6 · 1 1/8 miles · turf · Maiden special weightFlag

6CONQUER WE MUST

Model

Fair

Board

23%

7/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

The board and our fair price round to the same number (7/2), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show, it is +5.3 points of win probability, not a longer price.

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace10 going

No one horse is entitled to the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Nothing in here has shown real early speed on the figures the model reads.

It tops our own win number, 7.8 points clear of the next one, in a race nobody is clearly entitled to lead.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	CONQUER WE MUST ◀	23%	7/2	7/2
2	CONSTITUTION ANDI	15%	11/2	3/1
7	HAZAKA	13%	13/2	9/2
9	PATH TO POWER	11%	8/1	5/1
8	PAX MUNDI	9%	10/1	6/1
4	GO RALPH	8%	11/1	15/1
1	CORKSCREW ANDY	7%	12/1	15/1
10	PEACE ON EARTH	7%	15/1	15/1
5	AMERICAN KING	4%	25/1	30/1
3	KHONSU	3%	30/1	12/1

Race 8 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Grade 2 stakesFlag

2SWEET REBECCA

Model

Fair

Board

29%

5/2

7/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace7 going

Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

SWEET REBECCA is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

It tops our own win number, 10.7 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	SWEET REBECCA ◀	29%	5/2	7/2
6	WARMING	18%	9/2	6/1
8	WHISKEY DECISION	17%	9/2	2/1
5	TAKE A BREATH	15%	11/2	3/1
1	PRINCESS ATTITUDE	8%	12/1	12/1
4	PRINCESA MOCHE	7%	15/1	6/1
3	VINCEY GIRL	5%	20/1	12/1

Race 8 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Grade 2 stakesFlag

6WARMING

Model

Fair

Board

18%

9/2

6/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #2 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace7 going

No runner here is entitled to the lead on the early figures. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

It rates second on our own win number, 10.7 points behind the top.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	SWEET REBECCA	29%	5/2	7/2
6	WARMING ◀	18%	9/2	6/1
8	WHISKEY DECISION	17%	9/2	2/1
5	TAKE A BREATH	15%	11/2	3/1
1	PRINCESS ATTITUDE	8%	12/1	12/1
4	PRINCESA MOCHE	7%	15/1	6/1
3	VINCEY GIRL	5%	20/1	12/1

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board

Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R	#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Edge	Why
R15 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden optional claiming $150,000Even pacepass
R1	4	BILLY GOAT	20%	4/1	7/2	+2	1···
R1	5	HIGH PRONTO	18%	9/2	3/1	-2	2···
R1	2	CHARACTER	16%	11/2	4/1	0	····
R1	6	BOSS MAN BOLT	13%	7/1	5/1	-1	3···
R1	9	ANOTHER WARRIOR	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R1	1	SUMMER MISCHIEF	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R1	3	EL JABALI	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R1	8	SHAKE FOR ONE	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R1	7	BEATNIK	4%	25/1	20/1	0	····
R21 mile turfOptional claiming $50,000Even pacepass
R2	1	ETERNAL REIGN	26%	3/1	5/2	+3	1···
R2	2	HANNAH BUCKLE	20%	4/1	3/1	-1	2···
R2	3	NIKOLINA	14%	6/1	6/1	+2	4···
R2	6	SUNSET GRAZEN	13%	13/2	8/1	+4	3···
R2	5	ANYWAYTHEWINDBLOWS	7%	12/1	8/1	-2	5···
R2	7	WITH LOVE	7%	15/1	8/1	-2	7···
R2	8	HEY LIL LADY	7%	15/1	8/1	-2	6···
R2	4	WILDFIRE PRINCESS	6%	15/1	8/1	-3	8···
R36 furlongs dirtGrade 3 stakesEven pacepass
R3	2	HE IS NO LIE	28%	5/2	2/1	+1	1···
R3	3	HUGHES	23%	7/2	3/1	+3	2···
R3	6	KENNYTEN	19%	9/2	9/5	-10	4···
R3	1	PHONE BOOTH	13%	7/1	12/1	+7	3···
R3	5	YOU WANT SOME	9%	10/1	8/1	0	····
R3	4	ICANTHELPMYSELF	9%	11/1	8/1	0	····
R45 furlongs turfClaiming $25,000Even pace1 flag
R4	5	CODE DUELLO	33%	2/1	7/2	+15	1···
R4	1	JETOVATOR	12%	7/1	4/1	-4	2···
R4	7	REGAL PATRIOT	11%	8/1	5/1	-3	4···
R4	4	TIGERHON	11%	8/1	6/1	-1	3···
R4	9	FULANITO	9%	10/1	8/1	0	5···
R4	8	AGENCY	7%	12/1	8/1	-2	6···
R4	6	MALIBU COAST	6%	15/1	12/1	0	7···
R4	3	HARCYN	5%	20/1	8/1	-4	8···
R4	2	SHARP AZA TACK	4%	25/1	15/1	-1	9···
R4	10	MIDNITE MUSKET	3%	30/1	20/1	-1	10···
R55 1/2 furlongs dirtClaiming $12,500, non-winners of two lifetimeContested pace likely (7 early-speed types)pass
R5	2	IMA TRACK STAR	21%	4/1	5/2	-2	1▼··
R5	8	CHAPTER ONE	18%	9/2	3/1	-2	2▼··
R5	3	DESERT KAT	17%	5/1	5/1	+4	3▲··
R5	4	JOHNLINO	12%	15/2	6/1	0	6▲··
R5	7	SHADY GEM	11%	8/1	8/1	+2	4▼··
R5	5	MEEKING	9%	10/1	8/1	0	7···
R5	1	R DANNY BOY	9%	10/1	8/1	0	5▼··
R5	6	TIGER STRENGTH	3%	30/1	15/1	-2	8···
R61 1/8 miles turfMaiden special weightEven pace1 flag
R6	6	CONQUER WE MUST	23%	7/2	7/2	+5	1···
R6	2	CONSTITUTION ANDI	15%	11/2	3/1	-5	2···
R6	7	HAZAKA	13%	13/2	9/2	-1	3···
R6	9	PATH TO POWER	11%	8/1	5/1	-2	4···
R6	8	PAX MUNDI	9%	10/1	6/1	-2	7···
R6	4	GO RALPH	8%	11/1	15/1	+3	5···
R6	1	CORKSCREW ANDY	7%	12/1	15/1	+2	6···
R6	10	PEACE ON EARTH	7%	15/1	15/1	+2	8···
R6	5	AMERICAN KING	4%	25/1	30/1	+1	9···
R6	3	KHONSU	3%	30/1	12/1	-4	10···
R75 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R7	3	JUST WORK IT OUT	18%	9/2	7/2	+1	····
R7	2	FIRE'S MAKIN'A RUN	16%	11/2	4/1	0	····
R7	4	BIG BLAST	11%	15/2	6/1	0	····
R7	8	TAKE REVENGE	11%	8/1	6/1	0	1···
R7	6	HER STRUT	11%	8/1	5/1	-2	2···
R7	10	THIRSTY CAITLIN	9%	10/1	8/1	0	3···
R7	9	DAYTONA DIAMOND	9%	10/1	8/1	0	····
R7	1	MANEE	5%	20/1	20/1	+1	4···
R7	7	THE CHOSEN BRIDE	5%	20/1	15/1	0	····
R7	5	PAY ONE MORE DREAM	4%	25/1	20/1	0	5···
R81 1/16 miles turfGrade 2 stakesEven pace2 flags
R8	2	SWEET REBECCA	29%	5/2	7/2	+11	1···
R8	6	WARMING	18%	9/2	6/1	+7	2···
R8	8	WHISKEY DECISION	17%	9/2	2/1	-9	4···
R8	5	TAKE A BREATH	15%	11/2	3/1	-5	3···
R8	1	PRINCESS ATTITUDE	8%	12/1	12/1	+1	5···
R8	4	PRINCESA MOCHE	7%	15/1	6/1	-5	7···
R8	3	VINCEY GIRL	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	6···
R96 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $20,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pacepass
R9	9	MATT AT FIVE	24%	3/1	2/1	-2	1···
R9	1	SPECIAL CLUB	20%	4/1	5/2	-3	2···
R9	4	SUPERNAL	15%	6/1	5/1	+1	3···
R9	5	BRUNCHANDCRUNCH	13%	7/1	6/1	+1	4···
R9	3	MISS JO'S CURLIN	9%	11/1	8/1	0	5···
R9	8	STAY FOR THE BOOM	8%	12/1	8/1	-1	7···
R9	7	DANZING WILD CAT	6%	15/1	15/1	+1	6···
R9	2	CRYPTO RIDE	6%	15/1	20/1	+2	8···
R101 mile turfMaiden claiming $50,000Even pacepass
R10	6	THROWTHEFIRSTPUNCH	19%	4/1	7/2	+2	1···
R10	5	NON DOMICILE	15%	11/2	5/1	+2	2···
R10	7	DR. FILKINS	14%	13/2	5/1	+1	3···
R10	9	FAWCETT	13%	7/1	5/1	0	4···
R10	10	SAGUNTO	13%	7/1	4/1	-3	5···
R10	1	HEROIC DOSE	7%	15/1	8/1	-2	7···
R10	3	LUCKY SNIPER	7%	15/1	15/1	+2	6···
R10	12	SOUL FORCE	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R10	11	ITS THE BANDIT	4%	25/1	20/1	0	8···
R10	2	OMISSION	2%	30/1	30/1	0	9···
R10	8	ROWDYBARFIGHT	1%	50/1	30/1	-1	10···

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 10 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet

R1Lean4Billy Goat20%4/17/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pace9 going

Our top-rated horse in a $150,000 maiden optional claimer. We make the top one 20% against the board's 18%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 2 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	BILLY GOAT	20%	4/1	7/2
5	HIGH PRONTO	18%	9/2	3/1
2	CHARACTER	16%	11/2	4/1
6	BOSS MAN BOLT	13%	7/1	5/1
9	ANOTHER WARRIOR	11%	8/1	6/1
1	SUMMER MISCHIEF	6%	15/1	12/1
3	EL JABALI	6%	15/1	12/1
8	SHAKE FOR ONE	6%	15/1	12/1
7	BEATNIK	4%	25/1	20/1

R2Lean1Eternal Reign26%3/15/2

How it sets up

turfEven pace8 going

Our top-rated horse in a $50,000 optional claimer. We make the top one 26% against the board's 23%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	ETERNAL REIGN	26%	3/1	5/2
2	HANNAH BUCKLE	20%	4/1	3/1
3	NIKOLINA	14%	6/1	6/1
6	SUNSET GRAZEN	13%	13/2	8/1
5	ANYWAYTHEWINDBLOWS	7%	12/1	8/1
7	WITH LOVE	7%	15/1	8/1
8	HEY LIL LADY	7%	15/1	8/1
4	WILDFIRE PRINCESS	6%	15/1	8/1

R3Chalk2He Is No Lie28%5/22/1

How it sets up

dirtEven pace6 going

The board and our number agree in a Grade 3. We make the top one 28% against the board's 27%. We make the favourite, #6 KENNYTEN, 19% against the board's 29%, shorter than we think it should be. Our own top-rated is #2 HE IS NO LIE. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	HE IS NO LIE	28%	5/2	2/1
3	HUGHES	23%	7/2	3/1
6	KENNYTEN	19%	9/2	9/5
1	PHONE BOOTH	13%	7/1	12/1
5	YOU WANT SOME	9%	10/1	8/1
4	ICANTHELPMYSELF	9%	11/1	8/1

R5Chalk2Ima Track Star21%4/15/2

How it sets up

dirtContested7 of 8 want the lead

Go forward1278

Pace helps34

The board and our number agree in a $12,500 claimer. Seven horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	IMA TRACK STAR	21%	4/1	5/2
8	CHAPTER ONE	18%	9/2	3/1
3	DESERT KAT	17%	5/1	5/1
4	JOHNLINO	12%	15/2	6/1
7	SHADY GEM	11%	8/1	8/1
5	MEEKING	9%	10/1	8/1
1	R DANNY BOY	9%	10/1	8/1
6	TIGER STRENGTH	3%	30/1	15/1

R7Scramble3Just Work It Out18%9/27/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pace10 going

A full field of ten. Nothing separates the top two by more than 2.4 points. We make the top one 18% against the board's 18%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	JUST WORK IT OUT	18%	9/2	7/2
2	FIRE'S MAKIN'A RUN	16%	11/2	4/1
4	BIG BLAST	11%	15/2	6/1
8	TAKE REVENGE	11%	8/1	6/1
6	HER STRUT	11%	8/1	5/1
10	THIRSTY CAITLIN	9%	10/1	8/1
9	DAYTONA DIAMOND	9%	10/1	8/1
1	MANEE	5%	20/1	20/1
7	THE CHOSEN BRIDE	5%	20/1	15/1
5	PAY ONE MORE DREAM	4%	25/1	20/1

R9Chalk9Matt At Five24%3/12/1

How it sets up

dirtEven pace8 going

The board and our number agree in a $20,000 allowance optional claimer. We make the top one 24% against the board's 26%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
9	MATT AT FIVE	24%	3/1	2/1
1	SPECIAL CLUB	20%	4/1	5/2
4	SUPERNAL	15%	6/1	5/1
5	BRUNCHANDCRUNCH	13%	7/1	6/1
3	MISS JO'S CURLIN	9%	11/1	8/1
8	STAY FOR THE BOOM	8%	12/1	8/1
7	DANZING WILD CAT	6%	15/1	15/1
2	CRYPTO RIDE	6%	15/1	20/1

R10Lean6Throwthefirstpunch19%4/17/2

How it sets up

turfEven pace11 going

Our top-rated horse in a $50,000 maiden claimer. We make the top one 19% against the board's 17%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 2 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	THROWTHEFIRSTPUNCH	19%	4/1	7/2
5	NON DOMICILE	15%	11/2	5/1
7	DR. FILKINS	14%	13/2	5/1
9	FAWCETT	13%	7/1	5/1
10	SAGUNTO	13%	7/1	4/1
1	HEROIC DOSE	7%	15/1	8/1
3	LUCKY SNIPER	7%	15/1	15/1
12	SOUL FORCE	6%	15/1	12/1
11	ITS THE BANDIT	4%	25/1	20/1
2	OMISSION	2%	30/1	30/1
8	ROWDYBARFIGHT	1%	50/1	30/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 041077ef · takeout (DMR) win 15.43% / exacta 22.68% · card SHA-256 41c5263e482e… · Scratch status checked at 12:40 PM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

Edge Card runs a proprietary pre-race probability process: market expectations combined with licensed past-performance, pace, field-composition and connections information, evaluated within each race. Exact implementation details are not published. Structured analysis, not a proven edge; tracked publicly either way. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash	`41c5263e482e2b27302583aa21d250ae8561c207897bbcd530b46238c3e1d429`
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