Saratoga, Fri Aug 7, 2026

11 races · published 11:58 AM ET · card locked

3 value plays today · 8 races we're passing

StatusCompleted · races run

First post1:10 PM ET

Scratch checkChecked · 12:30 PM ET

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Fri Aug 7, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day

2MIDTOWN MISCHIEF

Race 2 · 5 1/2 furlongs turf

31%model2/1fair5/2boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+9 pts over the board), the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number, so size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Today at SaratogaMostly Sunny, 87°F, wind 2 mph · rain 17%, no off-track flagNWS forecast

Flags 3 of 11 races

New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.

Today’s plays3 flags

RaceHorseModelBoardEdge

R22Midtown Mischief31%5/2+9 pts R38Coach Ryan28%3/1+8 pts R102Fitz Right27%5/2+5 pts

Likely bet down All 3 flags today. A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Race 2 · 5 1/2 furlongs · turf · Maiden claiming $50,000Flag

2MIDTOWN MISCHIEF

Model

Fair

Board

31%

2/1

5/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace11 going

Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It tops our own win number, 18.1 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	MIDTOWN MISCHIEF ◀	31%	2/1	5/2
10	LAKE ARIEL	13%	13/2	6/1
4	LUCKBEOURLADY	10%	9/1	8/1
8	TICKET TO RIDE	9%	10/1	5/1
9	MOBILE	9%	10/1	8/1
1	MIDNIGHT BLUE	8%	12/1	6/1
3	RAYNHAM HALL	8%	12/1	10/1
7	FROGHOLLOWSUMMER	5%	20/1	10/1
5	DANCING MIRACLE	4%	20/1	15/1
6	BANK ON BEBE	2%	50/1	30/1
11	SHES SAL'S DREAM	1%	50/1	20/1

Race 3 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Maiden special weightFlag

8COACH RYAN

Model

Fair

Board

28%

5/2

3/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace12 going

No one horse is entitled to the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

It tops our own win number, 14.9 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
8	COACH RYAN ◀	28%	5/2	3/1
9	OHONTE'S OWN	13%	13/2	4/1
10	MAXIMUM HEAT	12%	15/2	5/1
6	EMOTIONLYAVAILBLE	11%	8/1	5/1
12	LIAM'S LEGACY	9%	10/1	8/1
1	TAKEITEASY CHARLIE	7%	15/1	12/1
3	ISTHEREANORMALWIFE	5%	15/1	10/1
11	DAISY DOO	5%	20/1	15/1
7	IN FRONT RUNNER	4%	25/1	15/1
5	TANGO TANGO	3%	30/1	30/1
2	RUNCOT	3%	30/1	20/1
4	BOLD SCHOLAR	1%	99/1	50/1

Race 10 · 1 3/16 miles · turf · Grade 2 stakesFlag

2FITZ RIGHT

Model

Fair

Board

27%

5/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

The board and our fair price round to the same number (5/2), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show, it is +5.1 points of win probability, not a longer price.

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down

Ranks #2 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace8 going

Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

It rates second on our own win number, 4.5 points behind the top.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	FAITHFUL DEPARTED	32%	2/1	9/5
2	FITZ RIGHT ◀	27%	5/2	5/2
5	IMAGINATIONTHELADY	15%	6/1	4/1
1	KENTUCKY BELLE	8%	12/1	6/1
7	JUST ALOOF	7%	12/1	12/1
4	BLESS HER	5%	20/1	12/1
8	CONSENSUS VIEW	4%	25/1	8/1
3	CODE	2%	30/1	20/1

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board

Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R	#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Edge	Why
R17 furlongs dirtClaiming $20,000, non-winners of two lifetimeContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass
R1	1	MOBELLADREAM	18%	9/2	4/1	+3	2▲··
R1	2	MARGARITA MOLLY	17%	9/2	3/1	-2	1▼··
R1	8	DIA POR DIA	15%	6/1	7/2	-3	5▲··
R1	3	MISS AMERICAN PIE	12%	15/2	5/1	-1	4···
R1	9	ADMIRAL SOL	11%	8/1	8/1	+2	3···
R1	7	CALL ME JAL	9%	10/1	8/1	0	6···
R1	6	LADY DELILAH	8%	12/1	12/1	+2	7···
R1	4	FURRY FOX	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	8▼··
R1	5	HERE'SYOURTROUBLE	4%	20/1	15/1	-1	9▼··
R25 1/2 furlongs turfMaiden claiming $50,000Even pace1 flag
R2	2	MIDTOWN MISCHIEF	31%	2/1	5/2	+9	1···
R2	10	LAKE ARIEL	13%	13/2	6/1	+2	2···
R2	4	LUCKBEOURLADY	10%	9/1	8/1	+2	3···
R2	8	TICKET TO RIDE	9%	10/1	5/1	-4	6···
R2	9	MOBILE	9%	10/1	8/1	0	····
R2	1	MIDNIGHT BLUE	8%	12/1	6/1	-3	5···
R2	3	RAYNHAM HALL	8%	12/1	10/1	+1	4···
R2	7	FROGHOLLOWSUMMER	5%	20/1	10/1	-2	7···
R2	5	DANCING MIRACLE	4%	20/1	15/1	-1	8···
R2	6	BANK ON BEBE	2%	50/1	30/1	-1	9···
R2	11	SHES SAL'S DREAM	1%	50/1	20/1	-2	10···
R31 1/16 miles turfMaiden special weightEven pace1 flag
R3	8	COACH RYAN	28%	5/2	3/1	+8	1···
R3	9	OHONTE'S OWN	13%	13/2	4/1	-3	2···
R3	10	MAXIMUM HEAT	12%	15/2	5/1	-1	3···
R3	6	EMOTIONLYAVAILBLE	11%	8/1	5/1	-2	5···
R3	12	LIAM'S LEGACY	9%	10/1	8/1	+1	4···
R3	1	TAKEITEASY CHARLIE	7%	15/1	12/1	+1	6···
R3	3	ISTHEREANORMALWIFE	5%	15/1	10/1	-2	8···
R3	11	DAISY DOO	5%	20/1	15/1	0	7···
R3	7	IN FRONT RUNNER	4%	25/1	15/1	-1	9···
R3	5	TANGO TANGO	3%	30/1	30/1	0	10···
R3	2	RUNCOT	3%	30/1	20/1	-1	11···
R3	4	BOLD SCHOLAR	1%	99/1	50/1	-1	12···
R46 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $45,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R4	7	PARTY IN THE ARMY	20%	4/1	4/1	+5	1▼··
R4	3	ANYWAY	18%	9/2	3/1	-2	3▲··
R4	2	LONG POUR	17%	5/1	5/2	-5	2▼··
R4	6	KENNY BE	12%	7/1	5/1	-1	4···
R4	5	THREE B'S	12%	7/1	5/1	-1	5···
R4	1	ELYSIAN MEADOWS	9%	10/1	8/1	0	6▲··
R4	4	RUNAWAY JOKE	6%	15/1	15/1	+2	7▼··
R4	8	WHAT'S UP BRO	5%	20/1	30/1	+2	8▼··
R51 1/8 miles dirtStarter allowance, $55,000 levelEven pacepass
R5	4	EZ ROLL	34%	2/1	1/1	-6	1···
R5	1	PAPA YO	16%	11/2	4/1	0	2···
R5	8	LEFTEMBEHIND	9%	10/1	6/1	-2	7···
R5	7	ANTIETAM	9%	10/1	10/1	+2	4···
R5	5	AMERICAN GRANT	9%	11/1	15/1	+4	3···
R5	6	URGENCY	9%	11/1	10/1	+1	5···
R5	3	GOOGOL JOKE	9%	11/1	8/1	0	6···
R5	2	FATEFUL LIGHTNING	7%	12/1	12/1	+1	8···
R66 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R6	12	SILVERUS	20%	4/1	3/1	0	····
R6	6	HURRICANE MO	14%	6/1	6/1	+3	1···
R6	10	CITY OF ROME	13%	13/2	5/1	0	····
R6	9	AUDIBLE JOHNNY	9%	10/1	8/1	+1	2···
R6	2	RUFUS THE RED	8%	11/1	8/1	0	····
R6	5	COLTRANE	7%	15/1	10/1	0	····
R6	7	ED CHARLES	7%	15/1	8/1	-2	3···
R6	3	BIG BOLD RED	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R6	4	CONSTANT FORCE	5%	20/1	15/1	0	····
R6	11	NODIN	4%	25/1	30/1	+2	4···
R6	1	PIRATE SHIP	4%	25/1	10/1	-3	5···
R6	8	KNEE HIGH	4%	25/1	20/1	0	····
R75 1/2 furlongs turfOptional claiming $45,000Even pacepass
R7	4	MONEY MAKES MONEY	20%	4/1	5/2	-3	2···
R7	1	NEW YORK SCRAPPY	17%	5/1	7/2	0	1···
R7	3	BRIDLE A BUTTERFLY	14%	6/1	6/1	+3	3···
R7	7	REMI'S MOON	13%	13/2	6/1	+2	4···
R7	2	PROJECTABILITY	11%	8/1	5/1	-2	5···
R7	9	FROSTELLE	8%	12/1	12/1	+2	6···
R7	8	RUSSI	6%	15/1	8/1	-2	8···
R7	5	GYPSY DREAMING	6%	15/1	20/1	+2	7···
R7	6	TWO DUCKS	5%	20/1	12/1	-2	9···
R81 mile dirtClaiming $20,000, non-winners of two lifetimeEven pacepass
R8	8	MIRAGE	24%	3/1	5/2	+2	1···
R8	9	SHANGRALA ROAD	19%	9/2	3/1	-1	2···
R8	10	YOU'RE LOOKIN GOOD	10%	9/1	8/1	+2	3···
R8	7	THE OBLITERATOR	9%	10/1	8/1	+1	4···
R8	5	MIKE'S MAGIC	9%	10/1	6/1	-2	5···
R8	3	SOCIABLY JOHNNY	8%	11/1	5/1	-4	8···
R8	4	RESIDE	6%	15/1	20/1	+3	6···
R8	1	MONTE AVI	6%	15/1	12/1	0	7···
R8	2	RAGING SEA CAPTAIN	4%	25/1	15/1	-1	10···
R8	6	JAKE'S ORCHARD	3%	30/1	30/1	+1	9···
R91 mile turfGrade 2 stakesContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass
R9	1	TOUCH OF FIRE	26%	3/1	5/2	+4	1···
R9	6	ARIZONA TERRITORY	16%	11/2	5/1	+3	2▲··
R9	7	IMMORTALISED	12%	7/1	8/1	+4	3▲··
R9	9	BOTTAS	12%	15/2	6/1	+1	4···
R9	5	GLAVINE	11%	8/1	7/2	-7	5···
R9	4	THIRD COAST	8%	11/1	8/1	0	6▲··
R9	3	VASY	6%	15/1	10/1	-1	7···
R9	8	BLINGING IT BACK	5%	20/1	10/1	-2	8···
R9	2	PRINT	3%	30/1	15/1	-2	9···
R101 3/16 miles turfGrade 2 stakesEven pace1 flag
R10	6	FAITHFUL DEPARTED	32%	2/1	9/5	+4	1···
R10	2	FITZ RIGHT	27%	5/2	5/2	+5	2···
R10	5	IMAGINATIONTHELADY	15%	6/1	4/1	-1	3···
R10	1	KENTUCKY BELLE	8%	12/1	6/1	-3	5···
R10	7	JUST ALOOF	7%	12/1	12/1	+1	4···
R10	4	BLESS HER	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	6···
R10	8	CONSENSUS VIEW	4%	25/1	8/1	-5	8···
R10	3	CODE	2%	30/1	20/1	-1	7···
R117 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $20,000Even pacepass
R11	8	MURSAL	22%	7/2	2/1	-3	1···
R11	5	COQUITO	18%	9/2	3/1	-2	2···
R11	10	DESPO'S DREAM	18%	9/2	5/2	-5	3···
R11	2	LIKA ROLLING STONE	11%	8/1	8/1	+3	4···
R11	9	HEAVENLY LIGHT	7%	12/1	12/1	+1	5···
R11	6	BABY SASSICAIA	6%	15/1	12/1	0	6···
R11	4	MISCHIEVOUS TRICK	5%	20/1	30/1	+3	7···
R11	7	CURLIN'S MAGIC	5%	20/1	30/1	+2	8···
R11	1	MOON GATE	4%	25/1	30/1	+2	9···
R11	3	CAROLINA SMOKESHOW	4%	25/1	15/1	-1	10···

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 11 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet

R1Lean1Mobelladream18%9/24/1

How it sets up

dirtContested4 of 9 want the lead

Go forward245

Pace helps18

Our number likes this one in a $20,000 claimer, though it is not the top figure. Four horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	MOBELLADREAM	18%	9/2	4/1
2	MARGARITA MOLLY	17%	9/2	3/1
8	DIA POR DIA	15%	6/1	7/2
3	MISS AMERICAN PIE	12%	15/2	5/1
9	ADMIRAL SOL	11%	8/1	8/1
7	CALL ME JAL	9%	10/1	8/1
6	LADY DELILAH	8%	12/1	12/1
4	FURRY FOX	5%	20/1	12/1
5	HERE'SYOURTROUBLE	4%	20/1	15/1

R4Lean7Party In The Army20%4/14/1

How it sets up

dirtContested3 of 8 want the lead

Go forward2478

Pace helps13

Our top-rated horse in a $45,000 allowance optional claimer. Three of them want the lead. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 5 points. We make the favourite, #2 LONG POUR, 17% against the board's 22%, shorter than we think it should be. Our own top-rated is #7 PARTY IN THE ARMY. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
7	PARTY IN THE ARMY	20%	4/1	4/1
3	ANYWAY	18%	9/2	3/1
2	LONG POUR	17%	5/1	5/2
6	KENNY BE	12%	7/1	5/1
5	THREE B'S	12%	7/1	5/1
1	ELYSIAN MEADOWS	9%	10/1	8/1
4	RUNAWAY JOKE	6%	15/1	15/1
8	WHAT'S UP BRO	5%	20/1	30/1

R5Chalk4Ez Roll34%2/11/1

How it sets up

dirtEven pace8 going

The board and our number agree in a restricted stakes. Nothing in the price worth taking. We make the favourite, #4 EZ ROLL, 34% against the board's 39%, shorter than we think it should be. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	EZ ROLL	34%	2/1	1/1
1	PAPA YO	16%	11/2	4/1
8	LEFTEMBEHIND	9%	10/1	6/1
7	ANTIETAM	9%	10/1	10/1
5	AMERICAN GRANT	9%	11/1	15/1
6	URGENCY	9%	11/1	10/1
3	GOOGOL JOKE	9%	11/1	8/1
2	FATEFUL LIGHTNING	7%	12/1	12/1

R6Chalk12Silverus20%4/13/1

How it sets up

dirtEven pace12 going

The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. A full field of twelve.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
12	SILVERUS	20%	4/1	3/1
6	HURRICANE MO	14%	6/1	6/1
10	CITY OF ROME	13%	13/2	5/1
9	AUDIBLE JOHNNY	9%	10/1	8/1
2	RUFUS THE RED	8%	11/1	8/1
5	COLTRANE	7%	15/1	10/1
7	ED CHARLES	7%	15/1	8/1
3	BIG BOLD RED	6%	15/1	12/1
4	CONSTANT FORCE	5%	20/1	15/1
11	NODIN	4%	25/1	30/1
1	PIRATE SHIP	4%	25/1	10/1
8	KNEE HIGH	4%	25/1	20/1

R7Scramble4Money Makes Money20%4/15/2

How it sets up

turfEven pace9 going

An open heat. Nothing separates the top two by more than 2.4 points. We make the top one 20% against the board's 22%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	MONEY MAKES MONEY	20%	4/1	5/2
1	NEW YORK SCRAPPY	17%	5/1	7/2
3	BRIDLE A BUTTERFLY	14%	6/1	6/1
7	REMI'S MOON	13%	13/2	6/1
2	PROJECTABILITY	11%	8/1	5/1
9	FROSTELLE	8%	12/1	12/1
8	RUSSI	6%	15/1	8/1
5	GYPSY DREAMING	6%	15/1	20/1
6	TWO DUCKS	5%	20/1	12/1

R8Chalk8Mirage24%3/15/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pace10 going

The board and our number agree in a $20,000 claimer. A full field of ten.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
8	MIRAGE	24%	3/1	5/2
9	SHANGRALA ROAD	19%	9/2	3/1
10	YOU'RE LOOKIN GOOD	10%	9/1	8/1
7	THE OBLITERATOR	9%	10/1	8/1
5	MIKE'S MAGIC	9%	10/1	6/1
3	SOCIABLY JOHNNY	8%	11/1	5/1
4	RESIDE	6%	15/1	20/1
1	MONTE AVI	6%	15/1	12/1
2	RAGING SEA CAPTAIN	4%	25/1	15/1
6	JAKE'S ORCHARD	3%	30/1	30/1

R9Lean1Touch Of Fire26%3/15/2

How it sets up

turfContested4 of 9 want the lead

Pace helps467

Our top-rated horse in a Grade 2. Four horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 4 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	TOUCH OF FIRE	26%	3/1	5/2
6	ARIZONA TERRITORY	16%	11/2	5/1
7	IMMORTALISED	12%	7/1	8/1
9	BOTTAS	12%	15/2	6/1
5	GLAVINE	11%	8/1	7/2
4	THIRD COAST	8%	11/1	8/1
3	VASY	6%	15/1	10/1
8	BLINGING IT BACK	5%	20/1	10/1
2	PRINT	3%	30/1	15/1

R11Chalk8Mursal22%7/22/1

How it sets up

dirtEven pace10 going

The board and our number agree in a $20,000 optional claimer. A full field of ten.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
8	MURSAL	22%	7/2	2/1
5	COQUITO	18%	9/2	3/1
10	DESPO'S DREAM	18%	9/2	5/2
2	LIKA ROLLING STONE	11%	8/1	8/1
9	HEAVENLY LIGHT	7%	12/1	12/1
6	BABY SASSICAIA	6%	15/1	12/1
4	MISCHIEVOUS TRICK	5%	20/1	30/1
7	CURLIN'S MAGIC	5%	20/1	30/1
1	MOON GATE	4%	25/1	30/1
3	CAROLINA SMOKESHOW	4%	25/1	15/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 041077ef · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 69a6d1abd18e… · Scratch status checked at 12:30 PM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

Edge Card runs a proprietary pre-race probability process: market expectations combined with licensed past-performance, pace, field-composition and connections information, evaluated within each race. Exact implementation details are not published. Structured analysis, not a proven edge; tracked publicly either way. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash	`69a6d1abd18ee5f88d19db65f2cce85d2ba4032e4b47426cbadf349d3cc2a070`
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