Saratoga & Del Mar · 2026 Meets · Model v0-heuristic-1.4 the anti-tout
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Del Mar, Fri Aug 7, 2026

3 value plays today · 5 races we're passing
StatusCompleted · races run
First post5:00 PM ET
Scratch checkChecked · 12:30 PM ET
Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Fri Aug 7, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day
2LADY RIDER
Race 1 · 5 furlongs turf
37%model9/5fair3/1boardWINpaid at the close
Our biggest edge on the card today (+16 pts over the board), the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number, so size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.
Today at Del MarMostly Sunny, 79°F, wind 0 to 10 mph · rain 1%, no off-track flagNWS forecast
Flags 3 of 8 races
Likely bet down All 3 flags today. A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.
Race 1 · 5 furlongs · turf · Claiming $32,000FlagShare
2LADY RIDER
Model
Fair
Board
37%
9/5
3/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more9/5 break-even3/1 board
Likely bet down
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Even pace6 going

Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It tops our own win number, 13.6 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
2LADY RIDER 37%9/53/1
6LONG MAYSHE REIGN23%7/25/2
3EMPRESS MATILDA13%13/27/2
5EVA LEA10%9/14/1
1INVINCIBLE MOLLY9%10/15/1
4TAM'S LITTLE ANGEL8%11/18/1
Race 6 · 5 1/2 furlongs · dirt · Maiden optional claiming $65,000FlagShare
10MAKE ME MONEY
Model
Fair
Board
24%
3/1
7/2
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more3/1 break-even7/2 board
Likely bet down
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend; projects as the lone early speed.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Lone speedone gets loose on the lead, 10 going
Alone on the lead10

One of the 10 looks alone on the lead, clear of the field on the early figures over five and a half furlongs on dirt, with nothing else in here entitled to go with it.

The model’s read ▾

It tops our own win number, 8.1 points clear of the next one, in a race where one of them looks like getting loose on the lead.

In a field of 10 it profiles as the lone speed over five and a half furlongs on dirt, likely uncontested on the front end, and we bumped it for that (×1.15).

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
10MAKE ME MONEY 24%3/17/2
7LUNAR VELOCITY16%11/24/1
4PRINCESS JET10%9/15/1
9BLUE SKY RAIN9%10/18/1
5DANIELLE9%11/18/1
3PRO PAYNE8%11/120/1
2I KNOW NOTHING8%12/16/1
8IT'STHETWENTYTHIRD7%12/16/1
1MIYAKO PAUMA6%15/115/1
6FAST AFFAIR4%25/120/1
Race 8 · 1 mile · turf · Starter allowance, $16,000 levelFlagShare
1JOINT VENTURE
Model
Fair
Board
26%
3/1
7/2
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more3/1 break-even7/2 board
Likely bet down
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Lone speedone gets loose on the lead, 10 going
Alone on the lead8

One of the 10 looks alone on the lead, clear of the field on the early figures over a mile on turf, with nothing else in here entitled to go with it.

The model’s read ▾

It tops our own win number, 12.6 points clear of the next one, in a race where one of them looks like getting loose on the lead.

In a field of 10 it profiles as the lone speed over a mile on turf, likely alone on the lead.

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
1JOINT VENTURE 26%3/17/2
5GOLD FOOT13%13/24/1
3CAISSON11%8/14/1
10WIZARD OF WESTWOOD10%9/15/1
2STAGGER LEE9%10/112/1
8JIMMY BLUE JEANS8%11/18/1
9J T'S WATCH8%12/18/1
6KEEP MOVIN' ON8%12/112/1
7GRANDISIMO5%20/120/1
4SPEARFISH2%30/120/1
The whole card every runner, our number beside the board
Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R#HorseModelFairBoardEdgeWhy
R15 furlongs turfClaiming $32,000Even pace1 flag
R12LADY RIDER37%9/53/1+161···
R16LONG MAYSHE REIGN23%7/25/202···
R13EMPRESS MATILDA13%13/27/2-53···
R15EVA LEA10%9/14/1-66···
R11INVINCIBLE MOLLY9%10/15/1-55···
R14TAM'S LITTLE ANGEL8%11/18/1-14···
R21 mile dirtClaiming $10,000Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R26LOVE OUR FAMILY30%5/22/1+31··
R25FREE AND HUMBLE24%3/15/2+12··
R23THERESASILVERLININ17%9/29/5-114··
R21MAKENARITA16%5/16/1+53··
R24MISTY DANCER6%15/115/1+15··
R22DANZIG TIL DAWN6%15/115/1+16··
R36 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R32FACTOR P26%3/12/1-11···
R35MUSTANG KNICKY21%4/17/2+32···
R31GENUINE GRACE18%9/25/2-53···
R36NATIVE EMPRESS13%13/24/1-35···
R34QUICK SIP9%10/18/10····
R37HAYLEY AMBER9%10/120/1+54···
R33SALLY SAYS5%20/120/1+16···
R46 furlongs dirtClaiming $32,000Even pacepass
R45OPUS UNO24%3/13/1+41···
R41BEE EYE GEE22%7/25/2-22···
R46MARCOS PERFORMANCE17%5/17/2-14···
R44UNPRETENTIOUS15%6/18/1+63···
R43BAZOOKA CHARLIE14%13/25/105···
R42HURRICANE WAY9%10/14/1-76···
R55 furlongs turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R58NOT SO MERRY MARY20%4/13/10····
R52BIG TWIST18%9/27/20····
R51PETITE MARIE14%13/25/10····
R57HAPPY HEATWAVE13%13/25/10····
R56POTICA11%8/16/101···
R53MISS MO BROWN9%10/18/10····
R54MAMA LOVES VEGAS8%11/18/1-1····
R55CADEN'S GAL6%15/112/10····
R65 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden optional claiming $65,000Lone speed1 flag
R610MAKE ME MONEY24%3/17/2+61··
R67LUNAR VELOCITY16%11/24/10····
R64PRINCESS JET10%9/15/1-33···
R69BLUE SKY RAIN9%10/18/10····
R65DANIELLE9%11/18/10····
R63PRO PAYNE8%11/120/1+52···
R62I KNOW NOTHING8%12/16/1-45···
R68IT'STHETWENTYTHIRD7%12/16/1-46···
R61MIYAKO PAUMA6%15/115/1+14···
R66FAST AFFAIR4%25/120/10····
R75 1/2 furlongs dirtStakes, $100,000 purseContested pace likely (5 early-speed types)pass
R74EARLY ENCORE35%9/56/5-11··
R72NET PAR22%7/23/1+22··
R76KING KAMEHA17%5/17/2-13··
R78PRIME LISTING9%10/18/104··
R75JONNY'S CAP7%12/110/105··
R77FUMANO'S FIRE6%15/115/1+16··
R73PRIME SPLASH3%30/120/1-17··
R81 mile turfStarter allowance, $16,000 levelLone speed1 flag
R81JOINT VENTURE26%3/17/2+81···
R85GOLD FOOT13%13/24/1-32···
R83CAISSON11%8/14/1-56···
R810WIZARD OF WESTWOOD10%9/15/1-34···
R82STAGGER LEE9%10/112/1+33···
R88JIMMY BLUE JEANS8%11/18/1-19··
R89J T'S WATCH8%12/18/1-17···
R86KEEP MOVIN' ON8%12/112/1+15···
R87GRANDISIMO5%20/120/1+18···
R84SPEARFISH2%30/120/1-110···

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 8 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet
R2Lean6Love Our Family30%5/22/1
How it sets up
dirtContested3 of 6 want the lead
Go forward2345
Pace helps16
Our top-rated horse in a $10,000 claimer. Three of them want the lead. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points. We make the favourite, #3 THERESASILVERLININ, 17% against the board's 29%, shorter than we think it should be. Our own top-rated is #6 LOVE OUR FAMILY. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
6LOVE OUR FAMILY30%5/22/1
5FREE AND HUMBLE24%3/15/2
3THERESASILVERLININ17%9/29/5
1MAKENARITA16%5/16/1
4MISTY DANCER6%15/115/1
2DANZIG TIL DAWN6%15/115/1
R3Chalk2Factor P26%3/12/1
How it sets up
dirtEven pace7 going
The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 26% against the board's 27%.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
2FACTOR P26%3/12/1
5MUSTANG KNICKY21%4/17/2
1GENUINE GRACE18%9/25/2
6NATIVE EMPRESS13%13/24/1
4QUICK SIP9%10/18/1
7HAYLEY AMBER9%10/120/1
3SALLY SAYS5%20/120/1
R4Lean5Opus Uno24%3/13/1
How it sets up
dirtEven pace6 going
Our top-rated horse in a $32,000 claimer. We make the top one 24% against the board's 20%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 4 points.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
5OPUS UNO24%3/13/1
1BEE EYE GEE22%7/25/2
6MARCOS PERFORMANCE17%5/17/2
4UNPRETENTIOUS15%6/18/1
3BAZOOKA CHARLIE14%13/25/1
2HURRICANE WAY9%10/14/1
R5Chalk8Not So Merry Mary20%4/13/1
How it sets up
turfEven pace8 going
The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 20% against the board's 20%.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
8NOT SO MERRY MARY20%4/13/1
2BIG TWIST18%9/27/2
1PETITE MARIE14%13/25/1
7HAPPY HEATWAVE13%13/25/1
6POTICA11%8/16/1
3MISS MO BROWN9%10/18/1
4MAMA LOVES VEGAS8%11/18/1
5CADEN'S GAL6%15/112/1
R7Chalk4Early Encore35%9/56/5
How it sets up
dirtContested5 of 7 want the lead
Go forward234578
Pace helps6
The board and our number agree in a starter allowance. Five horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
4EARLY ENCORE35%9/56/5
2NET PAR22%7/23/1
6KING KAMEHA17%5/17/2
8PRIME LISTING9%10/18/1
5JONNY'S CAP7%12/110/1
7FUMANO'S FIRE6%15/115/1
3PRIME SPLASH3%30/120/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 041077ef · takeout (DMR) win 15.43% / exacta 22.68% · card SHA-256 25134c86e302… · Scratch status checked at 12:30 PM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

Edge Card runs a proprietary pre-race probability process: market expectations combined with licensed past-performance, pace, field-composition and connections information, evaluated within each race. Exact implementation details are not published. Structured analysis, not a proven edge; tracked publicly either way. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash25134c86e30291e6ee567e738c7ce65f5f05dde625e468414a325a757c0179ac
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