Saratoga, Thu Aug 6, 2026

10 races · published 11:47 AM ET · card locked

4 value plays today · 7 races we're passing

StatusCompleted · races run

First post1:10 PM ET

Scratch checkChecked · 11:47 AM ET

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Thu Aug 6, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day

6RISK TOLERANCE

Race 7 · 1 mile turf

48%model1/1fair1/1boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+9 pts over the board), the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number, so size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Today at SaratogaPartly Sunny then Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms, 86°F, wind 5 mph · rain 69%, off-track / soft-turf riskNWS forecast

Flags 4 of 10 races

New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.

Today’s plays4 flags

RaceHorseModelBoardEdge

R42Play Good Pay Good13%10/1+6 pts R43City Blocks18%5/1+5 pts R76Risk Tolerance48%1/1+9 pts R89A Bourbon For Toby24%7/2+6 pts

Race 4 · 6 furlongs · dirt · Claiming $12,500Flag

2PLAY GOOD PAY GOOD

Model

Fair

Board

13%

7/1

10/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price should hold A long board price the late money tends to leave alone, so you should still get a strong number at post, the fullest version of the edge.

Ranks #2 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested6 of 9 want the lead

Go forward149

Pace helps57

Six of the 9 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over six furlongs on dirt in a $12,500 claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

A price play. PLAY GOOD PAY GOOD is not likely on its own, but the board has it longer than we do, and on a horse this price that is where a payout actually lives.

It rates third on our own win number, 5.5 points behind the top, and with 6 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

6 of the 9 want the front over six furlongs on dirt, so the early fractions should be honest.

And the day: rain risk (69%), watch for an off track by post, which our number doesn’t account for.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	CITY BLOCKS	18%	9/2	5/1
8	JACKSON'S DIXIE	14%	13/2	7/2
2	PLAY GOOD PAY GOOD ◀	13%	7/1	10/1
6	TOP OF THE TABLE	12%	15/2	4/1
1	JACKIE THE JOKER	12%	15/2	9/2
7	IRISH JACKSON	11%	8/1	6/1
5	OPEN SOUL AUTISM	9%	11/1	12/1
4	SHORT SHIFT	8%	11/1	6/1
9	SHEZANARCTICQUEEN	4%	25/1	20/1

Race 4 · 6 furlongs · dirt · Claiming $12,500Flag

3CITY BLOCKS

Model

Fair

Board

18%

9/2

5/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested6 of 9 want the lead

Go forward149

Pace helps57

The opening quarter over six furlongs on dirt in a $12,500 claimer should be contested rather than soft, with six of the 9 entitled to the early lead.

The model’s read ▾

It tops our own win number, 4.7 points clear of the next one, and with 6 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

The early fractions should be honest over six furlongs on dirt, with 6 of the 9 wanting the front.

And the day: rain risk (69%), watch for an off track by post, which our number doesn’t account for.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	CITY BLOCKS ◀	18%	9/2	5/1
8	JACKSON'S DIXIE	14%	13/2	7/2
2	PLAY GOOD PAY GOOD	13%	7/1	10/1
6	TOP OF THE TABLE	12%	15/2	4/1
1	JACKIE THE JOKER	12%	15/2	9/2
7	IRISH JACKSON	11%	8/1	6/1
5	OPEN SOUL AUTISM	9%	11/1	12/1
4	SHORT SHIFT	8%	11/1	6/1
9	SHEZANARCTICQUEEN	4%	25/1	20/1

Race 7 · 1 mile · turf · Allowance $120,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterFlag

6RISK TOLERANCE

Model

Fair

Board

48%

1/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

The board and our fair price round to the same number (1/1), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show, it is +9.3 points of win probability, not a longer price.

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested3 of 8 want the lead

Go forward134

Pace helps26

Three of the 8 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile on turf in an allowance should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It tops our own win number, 37.0 points clear of the next one, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

3 of the 8 want the front over a mile on turf, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

And the day matters here: rain risk (69%) on a turf race. If it comes off the grass or the course goes soft, this read can shift. We don’t price going in advance.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	RISK TOLERANCE ◀	48%	1/1	1/1
5	HIGHLANDS WAY	11%	8/1	10/1
4	SIYOUINCANADA	10%	9/1	7/2
2	DEEP MANHATTAN	9%	10/1	9/2
1	MARKET TIMING	7%	12/1	6/1
7	GRIFFIN'S WHARF	5%	20/1	15/1
8	MEGA MAGIC	5%	20/1	30/1
3	CUANDO	4%	25/1	20/1

Race 8 · 1 1/8 miles · turf · Optional claiming $80,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterFlag

9A BOURBON FOR TOBY

Model

Fair

Board

24%

3/1

7/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace10 going

No one horse is entitled to the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

It tops our own win number, 5.0 points clear of the next one.

And the day matters here: rain risk (69%) on a turf race. If it comes off the grass or the course goes soft, this read can shift. We don’t price going in advance.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
9	A BOURBON FOR TOBY ◀	24%	3/1	7/2
2	STARSHIP TITAN	19%	9/2	5/2
6	WALLEY WORLD	18%	9/2	5/1
1	RELATIVE VALUE	9%	10/1	6/1
8	OCEAN ATLANTIQUE	8%	11/1	8/1
3	EARLY ADOPTER	7%	12/1	6/1
5	SLAPINTHEFACE	5%	20/1	15/1
10	DISCREET DANCER	4%	20/1	20/1
7	DAUNT	3%	30/1	20/1
4	MOUNT RUNDLE	3%	30/1	20/1

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board

Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R	#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Edge	Why
R11 mile dirtClaiming $12,500Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R1	3	INTERLOCK EMPIRE	31%	5/2	7/5	-2	1▲··
R1	4	GOLDEN SYMPHONY	20%	4/1	3/1	0	2···
R1	6	THRILL OF IT	11%	15/2	12/1	+5	3···
R1	2	EXPENSIVE CUT	11%	8/1	5/1	-2	5▲··
R1	1	SHIPSATIONAL	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	4▲··
R1	8	FIRST TRUMPET	6%	15/1	6/1	-5	8▼··
R1	7	SCREAMING UNCLE	6%	15/1	15/1	+1	6▼··
R1	5	SUPERPOWER	5%	20/1	20/1	+1	7···
R21 1/16 miles turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R2	5	AL MOWASHAAH	25%	3/1	5/2	+3	1···
R2	3	HOWARD'S HOPE	14%	6/1	9/2	0	····
R2	2	MONACO CROWN	13%	13/2	5/1	0	2···
R2	10	CAPTAIN GEORGE	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R2	1	ALL ABOUT SOUL	9%	10/1	8/1	0	····
R2	8	PAPA BREZ	7%	12/1	10/1	0	····
R2	7	PAREA	6%	15/1	10/1	-1	3···
R2	11	MOTORCYCLE COP	5%	20/1	15/1	0	····
R2	6	MENDEL	5%	20/1	15/1	0	4···
R2	4	SOLO STRYKER	4%	25/1	20/1	0	····
R2	9	ROADHOUSE WARRIOR	2%	50/1	30/1	-1	5···
R37 furlongs dirtMaiden claiming $35,000Contested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass
R3	1	CHRIS'S SONG	15%	11/2	9/2	+1	2▼··
R3	11	BARGAIN PURCHASE	15%	6/1	5/1	+2	1···
R3	3	HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH	12%	7/1	6/1	+1	5···
R3	8	KINGS LANDYN	11%	8/1	8/1	+2	3···
R3	5	ALWAYS HONEST	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	4▼··
R3	6	RECURRING REVENUE	9%	11/1	6/1	-3	7···
R3	4	BYE FOR NOW	8%	11/1	10/1	+1	6▼··
R3	10	OURS TO START	7%	12/1	10/1	0	····
R3	9	MO MAHOMIE	5%	20/1	15/1	0	9▲··
R3	2	EASEMYWORRIEDMIND	5%	20/1	10/1	-2	8▼··
R3	7	MONTOSOLI	2%	50/1	15/1	-3	10···
R3	12	ROCOLINO	2%	50/1	30/1	-1	11▲··
R46 furlongs dirtClaiming $12,500Contested pace likely (6 early-speed types)2 flags
R4	3	CITY BLOCKS	18%	9/2	5/1	+5	1···
R4	8	JACKSON'S DIXIE	14%	13/2	7/2	-4	3···
R4	2	PLAY GOOD PAY GOOD	13%	7/1	10/1	+6	2···
R4	6	TOP OF THE TABLE	12%	15/2	4/1	-4	5···
R4	1	JACKIE THE JOKER	12%	15/2	9/2	-3	4▼··
R4	7	IRISH JACKSON	11%	8/1	6/1	0	7▲··
R4	5	OPEN SOUL AUTISM	9%	11/1	12/1	+3	6▲··
R4	4	SHORT SHIFT	8%	11/1	6/1	-3	8▼··
R4	9	SHEZANARCTICQUEEN	4%	25/1	20/1	+1	9▼··
R55 1/2 furlongs turfMaiden claiming $50,000Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R5	2	HIGH LEVERAGE	19%	4/1	3/1	-1	1···
R5	9	MAKE A PREDICTION	15%	11/2	6/1	+4	2▲··
R5	11	MYKONOS	15%	11/2	9/2	+1	4▲··
R5	6	SIR WALTA	12%	7/1	6/1	+1	3▼··
R5	8	EYE ON THE BALL	10%	9/1	5/1	-3	6···
R5	3	TWENTY ONE RED	8%	11/1	8/1	0	7···
R5	10	TIZLAWRY	7%	12/1	15/1	+2	5···
R5	7	PILOT KNOB	4%	20/1	15/1	0	8···
R5	1	CHARLIE MY BOY	4%	25/1	15/1	-1	9···
R5	4	UNTIL LAST CALL	3%	30/1	15/1	-2	10▼··
R5	5	STROBE LIGHT	1%	99/1	30/1	-1	11▲··
R66 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R6	7	CAPODOST	23%	7/2	5/2	+1	····
R6	8	GOODPROBLEMTOHAVE	12%	7/1	4/1	-3	2···
R6	6	HAMMERS NICKEL	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R6	3	WE GOIN	10%	9/1	15/1	+5	1···
R6	5	CREAM OF THE CROP	9%	11/1	8/1	0	····
R6	2	BEACH BELLE	9%	11/1	8/1	0	····
R6	11	JUANA MARGARITA	9%	11/1	8/1	0	····
R6	10	CODY'S APPROVAL	7%	12/1	8/1	-2	3···
R6	1	DOTSY	4%	25/1	20/1	0	····
R6	4	MY SWEET 'EM	4%	25/1	20/1	0	····
R6	9	GUSTAVIA	4%	25/1	20/1	0	····
R71 mile turfAllowance $120,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag
R7	6	RISK TOLERANCE	48%	1/1	1/1	+9	1▲··
R7	5	HIGHLANDS WAY	11%	8/1	10/1	+4	2···
R7	4	SIYOUINCANADA	10%	9/1	7/2	-7	3▼··
R7	2	DEEP MANHATTAN	9%	10/1	9/2	-5	7▲··
R7	1	MARKET TIMING	7%	12/1	6/1	-4	5▼··
R7	7	GRIFFIN'S WHARF	5%	20/1	15/1	0	6···
R7	8	MEGA MAGIC	5%	20/1	30/1	+2	4···
R7	3	CUANDO	4%	25/1	20/1	0	8▼··
R81 1/8 miles turfOptional claiming $80,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pace1 flag
R8	9	A BOURBON FOR TOBY	24%	3/1	7/2	+6	1···
R8	2	STARSHIP TITAN	19%	9/2	5/2	-4	3···
R8	6	WALLEY WORLD	18%	9/2	5/1	+5	2···
R8	1	RELATIVE VALUE	9%	10/1	6/1	-2	5···
R8	8	OCEAN ATLANTIQUE	8%	11/1	8/1	-1	4···
R8	3	EARLY ADOPTER	7%	12/1	6/1	-4	7···
R8	5	SLAPINTHEFACE	5%	20/1	15/1	0	6···
R8	10	DISCREET DANCER	4%	20/1	20/1	+1	8···
R8	7	DAUNT	3%	30/1	20/1	-1	9···
R8	4	MOUNT RUNDLE	3%	30/1	20/1	-1	10···
R97 furlongs dirtStakes, $200,000 purseContested pace likely (7 early-speed types)pass
R9	6	SACROSANCT	14%	13/2	4/1	-2	2···
R9	8	BOLD JOURNEY	12%	7/1	6/1	+1	1···
R9	10	DOC SULLIVAN	11%	8/1	7/2	-6	5···
R9	3	EL GRANDE O	11%	8/1	6/1	0	3▲··
R9	13	RADIO RED	8%	12/1	10/1	+1	4···
R9	11	DONEGAL SURGES	8%	12/1	10/1	+1	8▲··
R9	7	ACOUSTIC AVE	6%	15/1	12/1	0	6▼··
R9	12	DRAKE'S PASSAGE	6%	15/1	20/1	+2	7▼··
R9	5	BUTTAH	6%	15/1	12/1	0	10···
R9	9	YO BANANA BOY	5%	15/1	12/1	0	13···
R9	4	HIT THE POST	5%	20/1	15/1	0	9▼··
R9	2	LIGHT MAN	4%	25/1	30/1	+2	11···
R9	1	DR. KRAFT	4%	25/1	30/1	+1	12▼··
R101 1/16 miles turfMaiden claiming $50,000Even pacepass
R10	8	INTOTHEWILDERNESS	20%	4/1	7/2	+3	1···
R10	4	BERNINA EXPRESS	16%	11/2	9/2	+2	2···
R10	1	CHAUMET	13%	7/1	6/1	+2	4···
R10	12	SARATOGA DAISY	12%	15/2	8/1	+3	3···
R10	3	ITALIANNE	8%	11/1	6/1	-3	6···
R10	10	SKY LOW LOW	7%	12/1	6/1	-4	8···
R10	2	AMICUS CURIAE	7%	15/1	10/1	0	7···
R10	6	ZELENA	7%	15/1	12/1	+1	5···
R10	11	SUNSHINE DAKOTAH	5%	20/1	15/1	0	9···
R10	9	LUCIANA'S HONOR	3%	30/1	20/1	-1	10···
R10	5	MIA SOPHIA	2%	50/1	20/1	-2	11···
R10	7	TANK GIRL	1%	99/1	50/1	0	12···

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 10 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet

R1Chalk3Interlock Empire31%5/27/5

How it sets up

dirtContested3 of 8 want the lead

Go forward78

Pace helps123

The board and our number agree in a $12,500 claimer. Three of them want the lead.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	INTERLOCK EMPIRE	31%	5/2	7/5
4	GOLDEN SYMPHONY	20%	4/1	3/1
6	THRILL OF IT	11%	15/2	12/1
2	EXPENSIVE CUT	11%	8/1	5/1
1	SHIPSATIONAL	10%	9/1	8/1
8	FIRST TRUMPET	6%	15/1	6/1
7	SCREAMING UNCLE	6%	15/1	15/1
5	SUPERPOWER	5%	20/1	20/1

R2Lean5Al Mowashaah25%3/15/2

How it sets up

turfEven pace11 going

Our top-rated horse in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 25% against the board's 22%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	AL MOWASHAAH	25%	3/1	5/2
3	HOWARD'S HOPE	14%	6/1	9/2
2	MONACO CROWN	13%	13/2	5/1
10	CAPTAIN GEORGE	11%	8/1	6/1
1	ALL ABOUT SOUL	9%	10/1	8/1
8	PAPA BREZ	7%	12/1	10/1
7	PAREA	6%	15/1	10/1
11	MOTORCYCLE COP	5%	20/1	15/1
6	MENDEL	5%	20/1	15/1
4	SOLO STRYKER	4%	25/1	20/1
9	ROADHOUSE WARRIOR	2%	50/1	30/1

R3Scramble1Chris's Song15%11/29/2

How it sets up

dirtContested4 of 12 want the lead

Go forward1245

Pace helps912

A full field of twelve. The top two are effectively level on our numbers. Four horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	CHRIS'S SONG	15%	11/2	9/2
11	BARGAIN PURCHASE	15%	6/1	5/1
3	HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH	12%	7/1	6/1
8	KINGS LANDYN	11%	8/1	8/1
5	ALWAYS HONEST	10%	9/1	8/1
6	RECURRING REVENUE	9%	11/1	6/1
4	BYE FOR NOW	8%	11/1	10/1
10	OURS TO START	7%	12/1	10/1
9	MO MAHOMIE	5%	20/1	15/1
2	EASEMYWORRIEDMIND	5%	20/1	10/1
7	MONTOSOLI	2%	50/1	15/1
12	ROCOLINO	2%	50/1	30/1

R5Scramble2High Leverage19%4/13/1

How it sets up

turfContested3 of 11 want the lead

Go forward46

Pace helps5911

A full field of eleven. Nothing separates the top two by more than 3.7 points. Three of them want the lead.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	HIGH LEVERAGE	19%	4/1	3/1
9	MAKE A PREDICTION	15%	11/2	6/1
11	MYKONOS	15%	11/2	9/2
6	SIR WALTA	12%	7/1	6/1
8	EYE ON THE BALL	10%	9/1	5/1
3	TWENTY ONE RED	8%	11/1	8/1
10	TIZLAWRY	7%	12/1	15/1
7	PILOT KNOB	4%	20/1	15/1
1	CHARLIE MY BOY	4%	25/1	15/1
4	UNTIL LAST CALL	3%	30/1	15/1
5	STROBE LIGHT	1%	99/1	30/1

R6Chalk7Capodost23%7/25/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pace11 going

The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. A full field of eleven.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
7	CAPODOST	23%	7/2	5/2
8	GOODPROBLEMTOHAVE	12%	7/1	4/1
6	HAMMERS NICKEL	11%	8/1	6/1
3	WE GOIN	10%	9/1	15/1
5	CREAM OF THE CROP	9%	11/1	8/1
2	BEACH BELLE	9%	11/1	8/1
11	JUANA MARGARITA	9%	11/1	8/1
10	CODY'S APPROVAL	7%	12/1	8/1
1	DOTSY	4%	25/1	20/1
4	MY SWEET 'EM	4%	25/1	20/1
9	GUSTAVIA	4%	25/1	20/1

R9Scramble6Sacrosanct14%13/24/1

How it sets up

dirtContested7 of 13 want the lead

Go forward14712

Pace helps311

A full field of 13. Nothing separates the top two by more than 1.4 points. Seven horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	SACROSANCT	14%	13/2	4/1
8	BOLD JOURNEY	12%	7/1	6/1
10	DOC SULLIVAN	11%	8/1	7/2
3	EL GRANDE O	11%	8/1	6/1
13	RADIO RED	8%	12/1	10/1
11	DONEGAL SURGES	8%	12/1	10/1
7	ACOUSTIC AVE	6%	15/1	12/1
12	DRAKE'S PASSAGE	6%	15/1	20/1
5	BUTTAH	6%	15/1	12/1
9	YO BANANA BOY	5%	15/1	12/1
4	HIT THE POST	5%	20/1	15/1
2	LIGHT MAN	4%	25/1	30/1
1	DR. KRAFT	4%	25/1	30/1

R10Lean8Intothewilderness20%4/17/2

How it sets up

turfEven pace12 going

Our top-rated horse in a $50,000 maiden claimer. We make the top one 20% against the board's 17%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
8	INTOTHEWILDERNESS	20%	4/1	7/2
4	BERNINA EXPRESS	16%	11/2	9/2
1	CHAUMET	13%	7/1	6/1
12	SARATOGA DAISY	12%	15/2	8/1
3	ITALIANNE	8%	11/1	6/1
10	SKY LOW LOW	7%	12/1	6/1
2	AMICUS CURIAE	7%	15/1	10/1
6	ZELENA	7%	15/1	12/1
11	SUNSHINE DAKOTAH	5%	20/1	15/1
9	LUCIANA'S HONOR	3%	30/1	20/1
5	MIA SOPHIA	2%	50/1	20/1
7	TANK GIRL	1%	99/1	50/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 041077ef · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 2a965c9da7b0… · Scratch status checked at 11:47 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

Edge Card runs a proprietary pre-race probability process: market expectations combined with licensed past-performance, pace, field-composition and connections information, evaluated within each race. Exact implementation details are not published. Structured analysis, not a proven edge; tracked publicly either way. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash	`2a965c9da7b08cdf456d24c002f8e396f118cc18b7ed238a4f07b29709114842`
OpenTimestamps status	OpenTimestamps calendar commitment; Bitcoin confirmation pending