Saratoga, Sun Aug 2, 2026
11 races · published 10:05 AM ET · card locked
4 value plays today · 8 races we're passing
Archived card · races already run
These plays were published and locked before first post on Sun Aug 2, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.
Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.
Edge of the Day
8SILLY SEASON
Race 1 · 1 1/8 miles turf
31%model2/1fair7/2boardWINpaid at the close
Our biggest edge on the card today (+14 pts over the board), the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number, so size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.
Today at SaratogaIsolated Rain Showers then Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms, 81°F, wind 6 to 10 mph · rain 24%, no off-track flagNWS forecast
Flags 4 of 11 races
New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.
Today’s plays4 flags
RaceHorseModelBoardEdge
R18Silly Season31%7/2+14 ptsR45Dividend Recap33%5/2+11 ptsR72Nobals14%10/1+7 ptsR75Keewaydin16%6/1+5 ptsFlagShare
8SILLY SEASON
Model
Fair
Board
31%
2/1
7/2
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
No one horse is entitled to the lead. Nothing in here has shown real early speed on the figures the model reads.
The model’s read ▾
This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.
It tops our own win number, 11.4 points clear of the next one, in a race nobody is clearly entitled to lead.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | SILLY SEASON ◀ | 31% | 2/1 | 7/2 |
| 1 | LYN'S LEGACY | 20% | 4/1 | 5/2 |
| 3 | COACH OF THE YEAR | 12% | 15/2 | 3/1 |
| 4 | PAULA'S CHOICE | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 |
| 6 | ROSEMONT GARDEN | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 |
| 5 | FORCE OF MISCHIEF | 6% | 15/1 | 8/1 |
| 7 | ADROIT | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 |
| 2 | JARNDYCE | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 |
| 9 | ADDAGIRL ADDIE | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 |
FlagShare
5DIVIDEND RECAP
Model
Fair
Board
33%
2/1
5/2
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.
The model’s read ▾
DIVIDEND RECAP is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.
It tops our own win number, 21.2 points clear of the next one.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | DIVIDEND RECAP ◀ | 33% | 2/1 | 5/2 |
| 1 | RIVER TAY | 12% | 15/2 | 5/1 |
| 3 | LADY ORIENT | 12% | 15/2 | 7/2 |
| 6 | BRYANT AND COOPER | 11% | 8/1 | 5/1 |
| 4 | PRETTY LAVISH | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 |
| 7 | STARLIGHT DANCER | 9% | 10/1 | 6/1 |
| 9 | LOTUS PETAL | 7% | 12/1 | 12/1 |
| 2 | ON A SUMMER DAY | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 |
| 10 | THAT'S FUNNY | 2% | 30/1 | 30/1 |
| 8 | CELESTIAL EXPRESS | 1% | 50/1 | 30/1 |
FlagShare
2NOBALS
Model
Fair
Board
14%
6/1
10/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
Price should hold A long board price the late money tends to leave alone, so you should still get a strong number at post, the fullest version of the edge.
Ranks #2 in our power figure blend.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Go forward3456
Pace helps1
Five of the 9 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five and a half furlongs on turf in a $110,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.
The model’s read ▾
It rates third on our own win number, 1.9 points behind the top, and with 5 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.
5 of the 9 want the front over five and a half furlongs on turf, so the early fractions should be honest.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | KEEWAYDIN | 16% | 5/1 | 6/1 |
| 1 | CREDITWORTHY | 15% | 6/1 | 3/1 |
| 2 | NOBALS ◀ | 14% | 6/1 | 10/1 |
| 4 | CLOCK TOWER | 14% | 6/1 | 4/1 |
| 8 | BRING THEBAND HOME | 12% | 15/2 | 5/1 |
| 3 | NOTHING BETTER | 12% | 15/2 | 9/2 |
| 9 | JEAN VALJEAN | 10% | 9/1 | 12/1 |
| 6 | AMOUDI BAY | 4% | 20/1 | 8/1 |
| 7 | FULL DISCLOSURE | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 |
FlagShare
5KEEWAYDIN
Model
Fair
Board
16%
5/1
6/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Go forward3456
Pace helps1
The opening quarter over five and a half furlongs on turf in a $110,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft, with five of the 9 entitled to the early lead.
The model’s read ▾
It tops our own win number, 1.7 points clear of the next one, and with 5 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.
The early fractions should be honest over five and a half furlongs on turf, with 5 of the 9 wanting the front.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | KEEWAYDIN ◀ | 16% | 5/1 | 6/1 |
| 1 | CREDITWORTHY | 15% | 6/1 | 3/1 |
| 2 | NOBALS | 14% | 6/1 | 10/1 |
| 4 | CLOCK TOWER | 14% | 6/1 | 4/1 |
| 8 | BRING THEBAND HOME | 12% | 15/2 | 5/1 |
| 3 | NOTHING BETTER | 12% | 15/2 | 9/2 |
| 9 | JEAN VALJEAN | 10% | 9/1 | 12/1 |
| 6 | AMOUDI BAY | 4% | 20/1 | 8/1 |
| 7 | FULL DISCLOSURE | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 |
The whole card every runner, our number beside the board
| R | # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Edge | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R11 1/8 miles turfMaiden special weightEven pace1 flag | |||||||
| R1 | 8 | SILLY SEASON | 31% | 2/1 | 7/2 | +14 | 1··· |
| R1 | 1 | LYN'S LEGACY | 20% | 4/1 | 5/2 | -3 | 2··· |
| R1 | 3 | COACH OF THE YEAR | 12% | 15/2 | 3/1 | -8 | 3··· |
| R1 | 4 | PAULA'S CHOICE | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | ···· |
| R1 | 6 | ROSEMONT GARDEN | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 0 | ···· |
| R1 | 5 | FORCE OF MISCHIEF | 6% | 15/1 | 8/1 | -2 | 5··· |
| R1 | 7 | ADROIT | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 4··· |
| R1 | 2 | JARNDYCE | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | ···· |
| R1 | 9 | ADDAGIRL ADDIE | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | -1 | 6··· |
| R26 1/2 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $45,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass | |||||||
| R2 | 2 | HOT CURRENCY | 32% | 2/1 | 8/5 | +2 | 1▲·· |
| R2 | 6 | GRACE AND GRIT | 17% | 5/1 | 4/1 | +1 | 2▲·· |
| R2 | 3 | KAY CUP | 14% | 6/1 | 3/1 | -5 | 3··· |
| R2 | 1 | NINA KAY | 12% | 7/1 | 6/1 | +1 | 4▲·· |
| R2 | 4 | BELLACOSE | 10% | 9/1 | 9/2 | -5 | 6▼·· |
| R2 | 7 | ZI END | 9% | 10/1 | 12/1 | +3 | 5··· |
| R2 | 5 | MISSING FORTUNE | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 | +2 | 7··· |
| R36 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $20,000Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass | |||||||
| R3 | 7 | WILLIE BIRD | 24% | 3/1 | 3/1 | +5 | 1··· |
| R3 | 2 | NORWICH | 18% | 9/2 | 5/2 | -4 | 3▲·· |
| R3 | 5 | SHOOT THE NICKEL | 16% | 5/1 | 4/1 | +1 | 2▲·· |
| R3 | 1 | BURNINHUNKOFLOVE | 11% | 8/1 | 5/1 | -2 | 5··· |
| R3 | 8 | KUNSHAN BRIDGE | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | 4··· |
| R3 | 6 | JACKSON HEIGHTS | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 6▲·· |
| R3 | 4 | STEWIE | 5% | 15/1 | 12/1 | -1 | 8▼·· |
| R3 | 3 | CONNIVING | 5% | 15/1 | 20/1 | +2 | 7··· |
| R41 1/8 miles turfOptional claiming $45,000Even pace1 flag | |||||||
| R4 | 5 | DIVIDEND RECAP | 33% | 2/1 | 5/2 | +11 | 1··· |
| R4 | 1 | RIVER TAY | 12% | 15/2 | 5/1 | -1 | 2··· |
| R4 | 3 | LADY ORIENT | 12% | 15/2 | 7/2 | -6 | 6··· |
| R4 | 6 | BRYANT AND COOPER | 11% | 8/1 | 5/1 | -2 | 3··· |
| R4 | 4 | PRETTY LAVISH | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | +1 | 4··· |
| R4 | 7 | STARLIGHT DANCER | 9% | 10/1 | 6/1 | -2 | 7··· |
| R4 | 9 | LOTUS PETAL | 7% | 12/1 | 12/1 | +1 | 5··· |
| R4 | 2 | ON A SUMMER DAY | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | -1 | 9··· |
| R4 | 10 | THAT'S FUNNY | 2% | 30/1 | 30/1 | 0 | 8··· |
| R4 | 8 | CELESTIAL EXPRESS | 1% | 50/1 | 30/1 | -1 | 10··· |
| R51 1/16 miles turfStarter allowance, $50,000 levelEven pacepass | |||||||
| R5 | 9 | COACH CASE | 19% | 9/2 | 2/1 | -7 | 3··· |
| R5 | 10 | SALT SPARTAN | 17% | 5/1 | 3/1 | -3 | 1··· |
| R5 | 7 | FINAL DENILE | 14% | 6/1 | 6/1 | +3 | 2··· |
| R5 | 4 | SIX FORTYFIVE | 10% | 9/1 | 9/2 | -4 | 6··· |
| R5 | 3 | BLUE PILL | 9% | 10/1 | 20/1 | +5 | 4··· |
| R5 | 2 | DREAMS OF ROME | 9% | 10/1 | 15/1 | +4 | 5··· |
| R5 | 8 | MO KREESA | 7% | 12/1 | 12/1 | +1 | 7··· |
| R5 | 1 | FREE REFILLS | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | 9··· |
| R5 | 11 | CORVUS | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 | +1 | 8··· |
| R5 | 6 | SOLO EMPIRE | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | -1 | 11··· |
| R5 | 5 | OUTTAWATERBURY | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 | 0 | 10··· |
| R67 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass | |||||||
| R6 | 8 | MODEST MACLEAN | 23% | 7/2 | 5/2 | 0 | ···· |
| R6 | 3 | MUSIC IN MOTION | 22% | 7/2 | 3/1 | +2 | 1··· |
| R6 | 4 | MY TOGO | 18% | 9/2 | 7/2 | 0 | ···· |
| R6 | 1 | BOSSOFEVERYTHING | 16% | 5/1 | 9/2 | +2 | 2··· |
| R6 | 5 | JUST TIPSY | 9% | 10/1 | 6/1 | -2 | 3··· |
| R6 | 2 | KING LUCKY | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | ···· |
| R6 | 6 | TRUE ADIRONDACKER | 4% | 25/1 | 12/1 | -2 | 4··· |
| R6 | 7 | NOTHINGBUTNITRO | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | -1 | 5··· |
| R75 1/2 furlongs turfOptional claiming $110,000Contested pace likely (5 early-speed types)2 flags | |||||||
| R7 | 5 | KEEWAYDIN | 16% | 5/1 | 6/1 | +5 | 1▼·· |
| R7 | 1 | CREDITWORTHY | 15% | 6/1 | 3/1 | -5 | 7▲·· |
| R7 | 2 | NOBALS | 14% | 6/1 | 10/1 | +7 | 2··· |
| R7 | 4 | CLOCK TOWER | 14% | 6/1 | 4/1 | -2 | 3▼·· |
| R7 | 8 | BRING THEBAND HOME | 12% | 15/2 | 5/1 | -1 | 4··· |
| R7 | 3 | NOTHING BETTER | 12% | 15/2 | 9/2 | -3 | 5▼·· |
| R7 | 9 | JEAN VALJEAN | 10% | 9/1 | 12/1 | +4 | 6··· |
| R7 | 6 | AMOUDI BAY | 4% | 20/1 | 8/1 | -4 | 8▼·· |
| R7 | 7 | FULL DISCLOSURE | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 | -2 | 9··· |
| R81 1/2 miles turfGrade 2 stakesEven pacepass | |||||||
| R8 | 8 | SPEED SHOPPER | 19% | 4/1 | 4/1 | +4 | 1··· |
| R8 | 9 | GEZORA | 17% | 5/1 | 5/2 | -5 | 2··· |
| R8 | 6 | SURVIE | 17% | 5/1 | 7/2 | -1 | ···· |
| R8 | 2 | VENENCIA | 10% | 9/1 | 15/1 | +5 | 3··· |
| R8 | 10 | DONA CLOTA | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | +1 | 4··· |
| R8 | 3 | BELLEZZA | 9% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 5··· |
| R8 | 7 | MASSARAT | 5% | 15/1 | 20/1 | +2 | 6··· |
| R8 | 1 | ALLURING ANGEL | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | -1 | 7··· |
| R8 | 4 | FAVORITE MEMORY | 4% | 20/1 | 10/1 | -3 | 9··· |
| R8 | 5 | STORM MIAMI | 4% | 25/1 | 12/1 | -2 | 8··· |
| R91 1/8 miles dirtStakes, $150,000 purseEven pacepass | |||||||
| R9 | 6 | CHIEF WALLABEE | 43% | 7/5 | 4/5 | 0 | 1··· |
| R9 | 7 | BLACKOUT TIME | 17% | 5/1 | 3/1 | -3 | 2··· |
| R9 | 5 | SEA STRIKE | 11% | 15/2 | 6/1 | 0 | 4··· |
| R9 | 4 | TIERNANOGUE | 10% | 9/1 | 12/1 | +4 | 3··· |
| R9 | 1 | GULFY | 8% | 12/1 | 8/1 | -1 | 5··· |
| R9 | 3 | FULMINE | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 | +1 | 6··· |
| R9 | 8 | MINORINCONVENIENCE | 4% | 25/1 | 30/1 | +1 | 7··· |
| R9 | 2 | MOUNT VERNON | 4% | 25/1 | 12/1 | -2 | 8··· |
| R106 1/2 furlongs dirtGrade 3 stakesEven pacepass | |||||||
| R10 | 6 | SCARLETT BEGONIA | 24% | 3/1 | 5/2 | +2 | 1··· |
| R10 | 3 | PIERETTE | 20% | 4/1 | 3/1 | 0 | 2··· |
| R10 | 4 | WASHTON | 13% | 7/1 | 5/1 | 0 | ···· |
| R10 | 8 | STRESS RELIEF | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 | +1 | 3··· |
| R10 | 2 | CAROLINE'S GIRL | 9% | 11/1 | 9/2 | -6 | 7··· |
| R10 | 7 | PRIME AURORA | 8% | 12/1 | 10/1 | +1 | 4··· |
| R10 | 9 | ALMIGHTY ONE | 7% | 12/1 | 15/1 | +2 | 5··· |
| R10 | 5 | LUMINOUS BEAUTY | 6% | 15/1 | 10/1 | -1 | 6··· |
| R10 | 1 | BANDMASTER | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | +1 | 8··· |
| R116 furlongs dirtMaiden claiming $35,000Even pacepass | |||||||
| R11 | 2 | JAYME'S TURN | 16% | 5/1 | 5/1 | +3 | 1··· |
| R11 | 3 | BOUQUETRY | 15% | 11/2 | 5/2 | -7 | 4··· |
| R11 | 7 | TACTICALLY | 13% | 7/1 | 7/2 | -5 | 5··· |
| R11 | 9 | QUELL | 12% | 15/2 | 6/1 | 0 | 2··· |
| R11 | 4 | ALL BRIGHT | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | 3··· |
| R11 | 10 | STARSHIP LIZZY | 9% | 11/1 | 10/1 | +1 | 7··· |
| R11 | 1 | CAMARTINA | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | ···· |
| R11 | 8 | MY DEVINE ONE | 7% | 12/1 | 30/1 | +4 | 6··· |
| R11 | 6 | PEGGIE CASTLE | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 | +1 | 9··· |
| R11 | 5 | BATTLE RIFLE | 5% | 20/1 | 30/1 | +2 | 8··· |
Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.
Price your own ticket
The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 11 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.
The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet
R2Lean2Hot Currency32%2/18/5
How it sets up
Go forward4
Pace helps126
Our top-rated horse in a $45,000 allowance optional claimer. Four horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 2 points.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | HOT CURRENCY | 32% | 2/1 | 8/5 |
| 6 | GRACE AND GRIT | 17% | 5/1 | 4/1 |
| 3 | KAY CUP | 14% | 6/1 | 3/1 |
| 1 | NINA KAY | 12% | 7/1 | 6/1 |
| 4 | BELLACOSE | 10% | 9/1 | 9/2 |
| 7 | ZI END | 9% | 10/1 | 12/1 |
| 5 | MISSING FORTUNE | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 |
R3Lean7Willie Bird24%3/13/1
How it sets up
Go forward4
Pace helps256
Our top-rated horse in a $20,000 optional claimer. Three of them want the lead. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 5 points.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | WILLIE BIRD | 24% | 3/1 | 3/1 |
| 2 | NORWICH | 18% | 9/2 | 5/2 |
| 5 | SHOOT THE NICKEL | 16% | 5/1 | 4/1 |
| 1 | BURNINHUNKOFLOVE | 11% | 8/1 | 5/1 |
| 8 | KUNSHAN BRIDGE | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 |
| 6 | JACKSON HEIGHTS | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 |
| 4 | STEWIE | 5% | 15/1 | 12/1 |
| 3 | CONNIVING | 5% | 15/1 | 20/1 |
R5Scramble9Coach Case19%9/22/1
How it sets up
A full field of eleven. Nothing separates the top two by more than 1.9 points. We make the favourite, #9 COACH CASE, 19% against the board's 26%, shorter than we think it should be. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | COACH CASE | 19% | 9/2 | 2/1 |
| 10 | SALT SPARTAN | 17% | 5/1 | 3/1 |
| 7 | FINAL DENILE | 14% | 6/1 | 6/1 |
| 4 | SIX FORTYFIVE | 10% | 9/1 | 9/2 |
| 3 | BLUE PILL | 9% | 10/1 | 20/1 |
| 2 | DREAMS OF ROME | 9% | 10/1 | 15/1 |
| 8 | MO KREESA | 7% | 12/1 | 12/1 |
| 1 | FREE REFILLS | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 |
| 11 | CORVUS | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 |
| 6 | SOLO EMPIRE | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 |
| 5 | OUTTAWATERBURY | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 |
R6Chalk8Modest Maclean23%7/25/2
How it sets up
The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 23% against the board's 22%.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | MODEST MACLEAN | 23% | 7/2 | 5/2 |
| 3 | MUSIC IN MOTION | 22% | 7/2 | 3/1 |
| 4 | MY TOGO | 18% | 9/2 | 7/2 |
| 1 | BOSSOFEVERYTHING | 16% | 5/1 | 9/2 |
| 5 | JUST TIPSY | 9% | 10/1 | 6/1 |
| 2 | KING LUCKY | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 |
| 6 | TRUE ADIRONDACKER | 4% | 25/1 | 12/1 |
| 7 | NOTHINGBUTNITRO | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 |
R8Lean8Speed Shopper19%4/14/1
How it sets up
Our top-rated horse in a Grade 2. We make the top one 19% against the board's 16%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 4 points. We make the favourite, #9 GEZORA, 17% against the board's 22%, shorter than we think it should be. Our own top-rated is #8 SPEED SHOPPER. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | SPEED SHOPPER | 19% | 4/1 | 4/1 |
| 9 | GEZORA | 17% | 5/1 | 5/2 |
| 6 | SURVIE | 17% | 5/1 | 7/2 |
| 2 | VENENCIA | 10% | 9/1 | 15/1 |
| 10 | DONA CLOTA | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 |
| 3 | BELLEZZA | 9% | 11/1 | 8/1 |
| 7 | MASSARAT | 5% | 15/1 | 20/1 |
| 1 | ALLURING ANGEL | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 |
| 4 | FAVORITE MEMORY | 4% | 20/1 | 10/1 |
| 5 | STORM MIAMI | 4% | 25/1 | 12/1 |
R9Chalk6Chief Wallabee43%7/54/5
How it sets up
The board and our number agree in a starter allowance. We make the top one 43% against the board's 43%.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | CHIEF WALLABEE | 43% | 7/5 | 4/5 |
| 7 | BLACKOUT TIME | 17% | 5/1 | 3/1 |
| 5 | SEA STRIKE | 11% | 15/2 | 6/1 |
| 4 | TIERNANOGUE | 10% | 9/1 | 12/1 |
| 1 | GULFY | 8% | 12/1 | 8/1 |
| 3 | FULMINE | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 |
| 8 | MINORINCONVENIENCE | 4% | 25/1 | 30/1 |
| 2 | MOUNT VERNON | 4% | 25/1 | 12/1 |
R10Chalk6Scarlett Begonia24%3/15/2
How it sets up
The board and our number agree in a Grade 3. We make the top one 24% against the board's 22%.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | SCARLETT BEGONIA | 24% | 3/1 | 5/2 |
| 3 | PIERETTE | 20% | 4/1 | 3/1 |
| 4 | WASHTON | 13% | 7/1 | 5/1 |
| 8 | STRESS RELIEF | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 |
| 2 | CAROLINE'S GIRL | 9% | 11/1 | 9/2 |
| 7 | PRIME AURORA | 8% | 12/1 | 10/1 |
| 9 | ALMIGHTY ONE | 7% | 12/1 | 15/1 |
| 5 | LUMINOUS BEAUTY | 6% | 15/1 | 10/1 |
| 1 | BANDMASTER | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 |
R11Lean2Jayme's Turn16%5/15/1
How it sets up
Our top-rated horse in a $35,000 maiden claimer. We make the top one 16% against the board's 13%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points. We make the favourite, #3 BOUQUETRY, 15% against the board's 22%, shorter than we think it should be. Our own top-rated is #2 JAYME'S TURN. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | JAYME'S TURN | 16% | 5/1 | 5/1 |
| 3 | BOUQUETRY | 15% | 11/2 | 5/2 |
| 7 | TACTICALLY | 13% | 7/1 | 7/2 |
| 9 | QUELL | 12% | 15/2 | 6/1 |
| 4 | ALL BRIGHT | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 |
| 10 | STARSHIP LIZZY | 9% | 11/1 | 10/1 |
| 1 | CAMARTINA | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 |
| 8 | MY DEVINE ONE | 7% | 12/1 | 30/1 |
| 6 | PEGGIE CASTLE | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 |
| 5 | BATTLE RIFLE | 5% | 20/1 | 30/1 |
Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 9fd049e7 · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 750cbac128ab… · Scratch status checked at 10:05 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.
Verifying this card
| Downloadable artifact hash | 750cbac128ab5ed9ee76791bfc99848eab0dfc4ab5cfef60034961243774089b |
|---|---|
| OpenTimestamps status | OpenTimestamps calendar commitment; Bitcoin confirmation pending |
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