Del Mar, Sun Aug 2, 2026

10 races · published 10:06 AM ET · card locked

4 value plays today · 6 races we're passing

StatusCompleted · races run

First post5:00 PM ET

Scratch checkChecked · 10:06 AM ET

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Sun Aug 2, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day

2JOLENE FURY

Race 9 · 5 1/2 furlongs dirt

34%model2/1fair5/1boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+21 pts over the board), the price may move either way into post; you’re paid the close. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Today at Del MarMostly Sunny, 78°F, wind 0 to 10 mph · rain 2%, no off-track flagNWS forecast

Flags 4 of 10 races

New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.

Today’s plays4 flags

RaceHorseModelBoardEdge

R22Avalon Rose20%5/1+6 pts R34O K Rose27%8/1+18 pts R92Jolene Fury34%5/1+21 pts R109Little Hidden Port18%8/1+9 pts

Race 2 · 5 1/2 furlongs · dirt · Maiden optional claiming $150,000Flag

2AVALON ROSE

Model

Fair

Board

20%

4/1

5/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend; projects as the lone early speed.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Lone speedone gets loose on the lead, 8 going

Alone on the lead2

One of the 8 looks alone on the lead, clear of the field on the early figures over five and a half furlongs on dirt, with nothing else in here entitled to go with it.

The model’s read ▾

It tops our own win number, though only just, with 0.4 points in it, in a race where one of them looks like getting loose on the lead.

In a field of 8 it profiles as the lone speed over five and a half furlongs on dirt, likely uncontested on the front end, and we bumped it for that (×1.15).

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	AVALON ROSE ◀	20%	4/1	5/1
6	LIBERTY N JUSTICE	19%	4/1	3/1
5	THEBEACHISBACK	17%	5/1	7/2
7	VALLENDAR	13%	13/2	5/1
3	MYSTIC AURORA	12%	15/2	6/1
1	HONKY TONK GIRL	7%	12/1	8/1
8	PACEMAKER	6%	15/1	8/1
4	GOLDEN CHISPA	6%	15/1	12/1

Race 3 · 5 furlongs · turf · Optional claiming $50,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterFlag

4O K ROSE

Model

Fair

Board

27%

3/1

8/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price should hold A long board price the late money tends to leave alone, so you should still get a strong number at post, the fullest version of the edge.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested4 of 9 want the lead

Go forward1579

Pace helps23

Four of the 9 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five furlongs on turf in a $50,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It tops our own win number, 9.9 points clear of the next one, and with 4 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

4 of the 9 want the front over five furlongs on turf, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	O K ROSE ◀	27%	3/1	8/1
1	NO CAP	17%	5/1	6/1
2	SWEET GAL OF MINE	14%	6/1	6/1
6	COMEBACK GIRL	12%	7/1	5/2
5	MARIAN CROSS	11%	8/1	7/2
3	MISS MANDALAY	8%	11/1	8/1
8	CONFIDENTIALITY	4%	25/1	12/1
9	DIAL A FRIEND	4%	25/1	8/1
7	MIDNIGHT COWGIRL	4%	25/1	20/1

Race 9 · 5 1/2 furlongs · dirt · Stakes, $100,000 purseFlag

2JOLENE FURY

Model

Fair

Board

34%

2/1

5/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace7 going

Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It tops our own win number, 12.7 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	JOLENE FURY ◀	34%	2/1	5/1
5	FREE CLOSER	22%	7/2	8/5
1	SENTIENT SOON	14%	6/1	5/1
3	STRIDENT MISS	12%	15/2	4/1
6	STAY BOSSY	7%	15/1	6/1
7	ON BROADWAY	7%	15/1	8/1
4	YOU TRUST ME	5%	20/1	12/1

Race 10 · 1 mile · turf · Claiming $25,000Flag

9LITTLE HIDDEN PORT

Model

Fair

Board

18%

9/2

8/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price should hold A long board price the late money tends to leave alone, so you should still get a strong number at post, the fullest version of the edge.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested5 of 10 want the lead

Go forward458

Pace helps36

Five of the 10 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile on turf in a $25,000 claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It rates second on our own win number, 1.0 points behind the top, and with 5 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

5 of the 10 want the front over a mile on turf, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	DEA MATRONA	19%	4/1	5/2
9	LITTLE HIDDEN PORT ◀	18%	9/2	8/1
3	MISS MEAGHER	15%	11/2	6/1
8	GOING DEEP	14%	6/1	3/1
6	KETONIA	10%	9/1	8/1
10	SAKURA FLAVOR	8%	11/1	8/1
4	HOW ABOUT PAVEL	5%	20/1	12/1
7	ALERAMO	5%	20/1	12/1
5	FALABELLA	4%	25/1	20/1
2	GIGGLE GIGGLE	2%	50/1	20/1

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board

Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R	#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Edge	Why
R11 mile dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R1	5	COLLMUS	32%	2/1	8/5	+1	····
R1	2	NEWTON	31%	2/1	2/1	+4	1···
R1	4	ON THE BURNER	17%	5/1	3/1	-3	2···
R1	3	ESSOS	12%	7/1	4/1	-4	3···
R1	1	DON REBELDE	7%	12/1	15/1	+2	4···
R25 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden optional claiming $150,000Lone speed1 flag
R2	2	AVALON ROSE	20%	4/1	5/1	+6	1▲··
R2	6	LIBERTY N JUSTICE	19%	4/1	3/1	-1	····
R2	5	THEBEACHISBACK	17%	5/1	7/2	-1	····
R2	7	VALLENDAR	13%	13/2	5/1	0	····
R2	3	MYSTIC AURORA	12%	15/2	6/1	0	2···
R2	1	HONKY TONK GIRL	7%	12/1	8/1	-2	3···
R2	8	PACEMAKER	6%	15/1	8/1	-3	4···
R2	4	GOLDEN CHISPA	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R35 furlongs turfOptional claiming $50,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)1 flag
R3	4	O K ROSE	27%	3/1	8/1	+18	1···
R3	1	NO CAP	17%	5/1	6/1	+5	2▼··
R3	2	SWEET GAL OF MINE	14%	6/1	6/1	+2	3▲··
R3	6	COMEBACK GIRL	12%	7/1	5/2	-11	6···
R3	5	MARIAN CROSS	11%	8/1	7/2	-7	4▼··
R3	3	MISS MANDALAY	8%	11/1	8/1	-1	5▲··
R3	8	CONFIDENTIALITY	4%	25/1	12/1	-2	8···
R3	9	DIAL A FRIEND	4%	25/1	8/1	-5	9▼··
R3	7	MIDNIGHT COWGIRL	4%	25/1	20/1	0	7▼··
R46 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R4	2	TRUTH OR DARE	23%	7/2	5/2	+1	····
R4	6	BLACK TIE OPTIONAL	18%	9/2	7/2	0	····
R4	5	ROSCOE'S BROTHER	16%	11/2	4/1	0	····
R4	8	CHEEVER	13%	13/2	5/1	0	1···
R4	7	SCORPY	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R4	3	KNAVE OF HEARTS	9%	10/1	8/1	0	····
R4	4	BAD REPUTATION	6%	15/1	12/1	0	2···
R4	1	THEMAYOR OF DELMAR	4%	25/1	20/1	0	····
R55 1/2 furlongs dirtClaiming $10,000Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R5	6	ONE SMOKIN DUDE	15%	11/2	4/1	-1	1···
R5	2	BRO BRO	12%	15/2	6/1	+1	3▲··
R5	1	DIRTY WORDS	12%	15/2	5/1	-1	2···
R5	9	GEEZER	10%	9/1	7/2	-8	10···
R5	10	CLEVER CLOVER	8%	12/1	8/1	-1	9▲··
R5	5	NIJINSKY HALO	8%	12/1	20/1	+4	4···
R5	7	THE BIG CHEESEOLA	7%	12/1	12/1	+1	6···
R5	8	DES DOIGTS	7%	12/1	12/1	+1	5···
R5	4	GYPSY TEARS	7%	12/1	12/1	+1	8▲··
R5	13	DURAN	6%	15/1	20/1	+2	7···
R5	12	NOVINOPHOBIA	5%	20/1	15/1	0	11···
R5	11	DEVIL MOON	3%	30/1	20/1	0	12▼··
R65 furlongs turfAllowance $84,000 (nc)Even pacepass
R6	5	YOURS SINCERELY	18%	9/2	7/2	0	1···
R6	4	SNAPPY COMEBACK	17%	5/1	3/1	-3	4···
R6	6	WILL HAPPEN	15%	11/2	4/1	-1	3···
R6	7	SURFIN' U. S. A.	14%	13/2	8/1	+5	2···
R6	2	REVERA	12%	15/2	5/1	-1	6···
R6	8	STILL UNWRITTEN	11%	8/1	8/1	+2	5···
R6	1	CAMILA CATALINA	6%	15/1	15/1	+1	7···
R6	9	ZOLENE	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	8···
R6	3	HALLOWED HALL	3%	30/1	20/1	-1	9···
R75 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden claiming $50,000Even pacepass
R7	7	MYSTIC MOSES	21%	4/1	7/2	+3	1···
R7	5	DRIFTINGANDREAMING	16%	11/2	4/1	0	····
R7	8	CHARMZ AWAY	13%	13/2	9/2	-1	2···
R7	1	ONE LAST STRIKE	13%	13/2	5/1	0	····
R7	6	RIDE THE TIGER	10%	9/1	8/1	+2	3···
R7	10	LOW TOX	8%	12/1	8/1	-1	4···
R7	9	STRIKE IT SOLO	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R7	3	PROOF HE'S FAST	5%	20/1	8/1	-3	6···
R7	4	DADDYS STAR	4%	25/1	20/1	0	····
R7	2	MIGUELITO	4%	25/1	30/1	+1	5···
R81 1/16 miles turfOptional claiming $50,000Lone speedpass
R8	2	JOEJOE GO	20%	4/1	7/2	+2	1···
R8	7	CALL ME SIR	20%	4/1	4/1	+4	2···
R8	8	FACTOR ANALYSIS	12%	7/1	6/1	+1	3···
R8	1	NEWS AT TEN	11%	8/1	5/1	-2	6▲··
R8	4	HENRY ADAMS	9%	10/1	6/1	-2	4···
R8	3	IN THE TANK	7%	12/1	12/1	+1	5···
R8	10	AMPLITUDE	6%	15/1	12/1	0	7···
R8	6	AMERICAN GLORY	5%	20/1	10/1	-2	9···
R8	5	DYNODAVE	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	8···
R8	9	KING OF CLUBS	4%	25/1	15/1	-1	10···
R95 1/2 furlongs dirtStakes, $100,000 purseEven pace1 flag
R9	2	JOLENE FURY	34%	2/1	5/1	+21	1···
R9	5	FREE CLOSER	22%	7/2	8/5	-9	2···
R9	1	SENTIENT SOON	14%	6/1	5/1	+1	3···
R9	3	STRIDENT MISS	12%	15/2	4/1	-4	4···
R9	6	STAY BOSSY	7%	15/1	6/1	-5	6···
R9	7	ON BROADWAY	7%	15/1	8/1	-2	5···
R9	4	YOU TRUST ME	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	7···
R101 mile turfClaiming $25,000Contested pace likely (5 early-speed types)1 flag
R10	1	DEA MATRONA	19%	4/1	5/2	-4	2···
R10	9	LITTLE HIDDEN PORT	18%	9/2	8/1	+9	1···
R10	3	MISS MEAGHER	15%	11/2	6/1	+4	3▲··
R10	8	GOING DEEP	14%	6/1	3/1	-5	4▼··
R10	6	KETONIA	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	5▲··
R10	10	SAKURA FLAVOR	8%	11/1	8/1	-1	6···
R10	4	HOW ABOUT PAVEL	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	7▼··
R10	7	ALERAMO	5%	20/1	12/1	-2	9···
R10	5	FALABELLA	4%	25/1	20/1	0	8▼··
R10	2	GIGGLE GIGGLE	2%	50/1	20/1	-1	10···

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 10 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet

R1Chalk5Collmus32%2/18/5

How it sets up

dirtEven pace5 going

The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. A short field of five.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	COLLMUS	32%	2/1	8/5
2	NEWTON	31%	2/1	2/1
4	ON THE BURNER	17%	5/1	3/1
3	ESSOS	12%	7/1	4/1
1	DON REBELDE	7%	12/1	15/1

R4Chalk2Truth Or Dare23%7/25/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pace8 going

The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 23% against the board's 23%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	TRUTH OR DARE	23%	7/2	5/2
6	BLACK TIE OPTIONAL	18%	9/2	7/2
5	ROSCOE'S BROTHER	16%	11/2	4/1
8	CHEEVER	13%	13/2	5/1
7	SCORPY	11%	8/1	6/1
3	KNAVE OF HEARTS	9%	10/1	8/1
4	BAD REPUTATION	6%	15/1	12/1
1	THEMAYOR OF DELMAR	4%	25/1	20/1

R5Scramble6One Smokin Dude15%11/24/1

How it sets up

dirtContested3 of 12 want the lead

Go forward11

Pace helps2410

A full field of twelve. Nothing separates the top two by more than 3.1 points. Three of them want the lead.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	ONE SMOKIN DUDE	15%	11/2	4/1
2	BRO BRO	12%	15/2	6/1
1	DIRTY WORDS	12%	15/2	5/1
9	GEEZER	10%	9/1	7/2
10	CLEVER CLOVER	8%	12/1	8/1
5	NIJINSKY HALO	8%	12/1	20/1
7	THE BIG CHEESEOLA	7%	12/1	12/1
8	DES DOIGTS	7%	12/1	12/1
4	GYPSY TEARS	7%	12/1	12/1
13	DURAN	6%	15/1	20/1
12	NOVINOPHOBIA	5%	20/1	15/1
11	DEVIL MOON	3%	30/1	20/1

R6Scramble5Yours Sincerely18%9/27/2

How it sets up

turfEven pace9 going

An open heat. Nothing separates the top two by more than 1.5 points. We make the top one 18% against the board's 18%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	YOURS SINCERELY	18%	9/2	7/2
4	SNAPPY COMEBACK	17%	5/1	3/1
6	WILL HAPPEN	15%	11/2	4/1
7	SURFIN' U. S. A.	14%	13/2	8/1
2	REVERA	12%	15/2	5/1
8	STILL UNWRITTEN	11%	8/1	8/1
1	CAMILA CATALINA	6%	15/1	15/1
9	ZOLENE	5%	20/1	12/1
3	HALLOWED HALL	3%	30/1	20/1

R7Lean7Mystic Moses21%4/17/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pace10 going

Our top-rated horse in a $50,000 maiden claimer. We make the top one 21% against the board's 18%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
7	MYSTIC MOSES	21%	4/1	7/2
5	DRIFTINGANDREAMING	16%	11/2	4/1
8	CHARMZ AWAY	13%	13/2	9/2
1	ONE LAST STRIKE	13%	13/2	5/1
6	RIDE THE TIGER	10%	9/1	8/1
10	LOW TOX	8%	12/1	8/1
9	STRIKE IT SOLO	6%	15/1	12/1
3	PROOF HE'S FAST	5%	20/1	8/1
4	DADDYS STAR	4%	25/1	20/1
2	MIGUELITO	4%	25/1	30/1

R8Lean2Joejoe Go20%4/17/2

How it sets up

turfLone speedone gets loose on the lead, 10 going

Alone on the lead1

Our top-rated horse in a $50,000 optional claimer. One horse looks alone on the lead, which our pace adjustment credits. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 2 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	JOEJOE GO	20%	4/1	7/2
7	CALL ME SIR	20%	4/1	4/1
8	FACTOR ANALYSIS	12%	7/1	6/1
1	NEWS AT TEN	11%	8/1	5/1
4	HENRY ADAMS	9%	10/1	6/1
3	IN THE TANK	7%	12/1	12/1
10	AMPLITUDE	6%	15/1	12/1
6	AMERICAN GLORY	5%	20/1	10/1
5	DYNODAVE	5%	20/1	12/1
9	KING OF CLUBS	4%	25/1	15/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 9fd049e7 · takeout (DMR) win 15.43% / exacta 22.68% · card SHA-256 0d4b92f30fa8… · Scratch status checked at 10:06 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

This card was produced under the methodology version identified at publication. Detailed implementation parameters are proprietary and are no longer displayed. The original selections, probabilities, prices, timestamps, grading and integrity evidence are unchanged, and the locked card file below is the original. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash	`0d4b92f30fa8b903554e235ffc39d9b63e9655969e650e8e76c1c91c0fdecc50`
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