Saratoga, Sun Jul 26, 2026

10 races · published 12:02 AM ET · card locked

4 value plays today · 6 races we're passing

StatusCompleted · races run

First post1:10 PM ET

Scratch checkChecked · 5:49 PM ET

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Sun Jul 26, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day

1MAIDA

Race 8 · 6 furlongs dirt

24%model3/1fair5/1boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+11 pts over the board), the price may move either way into post; you’re paid the close. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Today at SaratogaPartly Cloudy, 58°F, wind 1 mph · rain 0%, no off-track flagNWS forecast

Flags 4 of 10 races

New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.

Today’s plays4 flags

RaceHorseModelBoardEdge

R52Charlottesuniverse21%6/1+10 pts R67Samartina23%7/2+6 pts R81Maida24%5/1+11 pts R1010Phantom Blue33%5/2+11 pts

Race 5 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Allowance $105,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterFlag

2CHARLOTTESUNIVERSE

Model

Fair

Board

21%

4/1

6/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested5 of 10 want the lead

Go forward8

Pace helps6710

Five of the 10 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile and a sixteenth on turf in an allowance should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It tops our own win number, 5.3 points clear of the next one, and with 5 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

5 of the 10 want the front over a mile and a sixteenth on turf, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	CHARLOTTESUNIVERSE ◀	21%	4/1	6/1
1	SHE TAKES CASH	15%	11/2	4/1
7	LIVIN THE BREEZE	15%	11/2	5/2
5	TONGUE TWISTER	11%	8/1	6/1
9	MARVELOUS MADISON	10%	9/1	7/2
3	FEDUPWITHTHEFED	8%	11/1	12/1
6	LAST GLORY	7%	15/1	15/1
8	FABULOUS FOX	6%	15/1	15/1
4	FULL POUR	4%	30/1	20/1
10	MIAMI STYLE	3%	30/1	30/1

Race 6 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Maiden claiming $55,000Flag

7SAMARTINA

Model

Fair

Board

23%

7/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

The board and our fair price round to the same number (7/2), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show, it is +5.7 points of win probability, not a longer price.

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested3 of 12 want the lead

Pace helps6710

Three of the 12 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile and a sixteenth on turf in a $55,000 maiden claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It tops our own win number, 8.9 points clear of the next one, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

3 of the 12 want the front over a mile and a sixteenth on turf, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
7	SAMARTINA ◀	23%	7/2	7/2
6	OUTRO	14%	6/1	9/2
2	MAJESTIC MOONLIGHT	13%	13/2	6/1
8	DEVILISH GRIN	11%	8/1	6/1
1	PLAYING GAMES	9%	10/1	5/1
11	JUST TELL ANNE	8%	12/1	6/1
12	MAPPY	7%	12/1	12/1
5	BESIDE YOU	6%	15/1	12/1
4	SWEET MACKENZIE	5%	20/1	15/1
10	ADDAGIRL ADDIE	2%	50/1	30/1
3	PAY THE BILLS	1%	99/1	50/1
9	RIYAH AL NIL	1%	99/1	50/1

Race 8 · 6 furlongs · dirt · Grade 2 stakesFlag

1MAIDA

Model

Fair

Board

24%

3/1

5/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #2 in our power figure blend; projects as the lone early speed.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Lone speedone gets loose on the lead, 7 going

Alone on the lead1

One of the 7 looks alone on the lead, clear of the field on the early figures over six furlongs on dirt, with nothing else in here entitled to go with it.

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It rates second on our own win number, 17.2 points behind the top, in a race where one of them looks like getting loose on the lead.

In a field of 7 it profiles as the lone speed over six furlongs on dirt, likely uncontested on the front end, and we bumped it for that (×1.15).

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	GRAND JOB	41%	3/2	1/2
1	MAIDA ◀	24%	3/1	5/1
4	HAULIN ICE	12%	7/1	4/1
2	KAPPA KAPPA	10%	9/1	10/1
3	STRIKER HAS DIAL	8%	12/1	10/1
5	GOING STEADY	4%	25/1	30/1
7	DO GOODER	2%	50/1	30/1

Race 10 · 1 3/8 miles · turf · Maiden special weightFlag

10PHANTOM BLUE

Model

Fair

Board

33%

2/1

5/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace10 going

No one horse is entitled to the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

PHANTOM BLUE is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

It tops our own win number, 14.8 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
10	PHANTOM BLUE ◀	33%	2/1	5/2
7	WHITETHORN	18%	9/2	2/1
9	MARY LOIS	13%	7/1	6/1
2	AMERICAN DEBUTANTE	10%	9/1	8/1
8	ONEHOTMESS	8%	11/1	12/1
5	DON'T LOOK NOW	5%	20/1	12/1
1	EENYMEANYMIGHTYMO	5%	20/1	12/1
4	ISADORA DUNCAN	4%	20/1	12/1
6	ABUNDANT LOVE	2%	30/1	15/1
3	RAGING BLOOM	1%	50/1	30/1

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board

Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R	#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Edge	Why
R11 1/16 miles turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R1	6	SHOWA	20%	4/1	3/1	+1	····
R1	4	HIGH OFFICIAL	17%	5/1	7/2	0	····
R1	2	GENEVA LAKE	16%	11/2	4/1	0	····
R1	8	JERSEY GUY	16%	11/2	4/1	0	····
R1	3	HARBAUGH	11%	8/1	6/1	0	1···
R1	1	KIPROS	8%	11/1	8/1	0	····
R1	5	LE PATRON	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R1	7	BLUE LAW	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R25 1/2 furlongs turfOptional claiming $50,000Even pacepass
R2	5	SON OF A BIRCH	25%	3/1	5/2	+3	1···
R2	4	VACATION DANCE	16%	5/1	9/2	+2	2···
R2	6	SHEFFLIN	15%	6/1	3/1	-5	4···
R2	8	NIAGARA SKYLINE	14%	6/1	6/1	+3	3···
R2	2	FLUID SITUATION	10%	9/1	6/1	-1	5···
R2	7	DOCTOR JEFF	9%	11/1	8/1	0	6···
R2	3	TRUST ISSUES	6%	15/1	20/1	+2	7···
R2	1	BILLIONAIRES ROW	5%	20/1	8/1	-4	8···
R31 1/8 miles dirtStarter allowance, $55,000 levelEven pacepass
R3	2	DON'T BE SALTY	20%	4/1	3/1	+1	1···
R3	1	BEIRA	18%	9/2	4/1	+3	2···
R3	3	KYLE'S MOM	13%	7/1	9/2	-2	4···
R3	7	KATIE KING	12%	15/2	8/1	+3	3···
R3	8	ROYAL BOBBIE	12%	15/2	5/1	-1	5···
R3	5	ANGEL BELLA	12%	15/2	4/1	-4	7···
R3	4	RACING COLORS	8%	11/1	10/1	+1	6···
R3	6	BOURBON N LACE	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	8···
R41 mile dirtClaiming $45,000Contested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass
R4	3	EMIRATES ROAD	17%	5/1	5/2	-5	3▲··
R4	9	COUNTERSPY	16%	11/2	9/2	+2	2▲··
R4	4	ALTERNATE REALITY	14%	6/1	6/1	+3	1···
R4	2	FORT NELSON	12%	15/2	7/2	-5	7···
R4	8	BIG BLUE LINE	10%	9/1	8/1	+2	4···
R4	7	CASTLE CHAOS	9%	10/1	8/1	+1	5···
R4	5	FRIZZANTE	8%	11/1	8/1	0	9▲··
R4	1	NOTED	7%	12/1	15/1	+2	8···
R4	6	CELESTIAL GLAZE	7%	15/1	15/1	+2	6▼··
R51 1/16 miles turfAllowance $105,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (5 early-speed types)1 flag
R5	2	CHARLOTTESUNIVERSE	21%	4/1	6/1	+10	1···
R5	1	SHE TAKES CASH	15%	11/2	4/1	0	2···
R5	7	LIVIN THE BREEZE	15%	11/2	5/2	-7	5▲··
R5	5	TONGUE TWISTER	11%	8/1	6/1	-1	4···
R5	9	MARVELOUS MADISON	10%	9/1	7/2	-7	6···
R5	3	FEDUPWITHTHEFED	8%	11/1	12/1	+2	3···
R5	6	LAST GLORY	7%	15/1	15/1	+2	8▲··
R5	8	FABULOUS FOX	6%	15/1	15/1	+1	7▼··
R5	4	FULL POUR	4%	30/1	20/1	0	9···
R5	10	MIAMI STYLE	3%	30/1	30/1	+1	10▲··
R61 1/16 miles turfMaiden claiming $55,000Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag
R6	7	SAMARTINA	23%	7/2	7/2	+6	1▲··
R6	6	OUTRO	14%	6/1	9/2	0	3▲··
R6	2	MAJESTIC MOONLIGHT	13%	13/2	6/1	+2	2···
R6	8	DEVILISH GRIN	11%	8/1	6/1	0	4···
R6	1	PLAYING GAMES	9%	10/1	5/1	-4	7···
R6	11	JUST TELL ANNE	8%	12/1	6/1	-3	6···
R6	12	MAPPY	7%	12/1	12/1	+1	5···
R6	5	BESIDE YOU	6%	15/1	12/1	0	9···
R6	4	SWEET MACKENZIE	5%	20/1	15/1	0	8···
R6	10	ADDAGIRL ADDIE	2%	50/1	30/1	-1	10▲··
R6	3	PAY THE BILLS	1%	99/1	50/1	0	11···
R6	9	RIYAH AL NIL	1%	99/1	50/1	-1	12···
R77 furlongs dirtStarter allowance, $55,000 levelEven pacepass
R7	3	WILLINTORISKITALL	16%	5/1	7/2	-1	1···
R7	4	GOLDEN SYMPHONY	12%	15/2	6/1	+1	2···
R7	10	ART FAIR	11%	8/1	8/1	+2	3···
R7	7	SOUTH BEND TOM	10%	9/1	9/2	-4	5···
R7	11	EGYPTIAN	10%	9/1	10/1	+3	4···
R7	6	DISCOTHEQUE	9%	10/1	6/1	-2	6···
R7	1	MOMENTUM FILES	8%	11/1	8/1	-1	7···
R7	2	HOT PROPERTY	7%	12/1	8/1	-1	10···
R7	8	MASTER FREUD	7%	12/1	10/1	0	9···
R7	9	BEARY FUNNY	6%	15/1	20/1	+3	8···
R7	5	CONNIVING	3%	30/1	30/1	+1	11···
R86 furlongs dirtGrade 2 stakesLone speed1 flag
R8	6	GRAND JOB	41%	3/2	1/2	-11	1···
R8	1	MAIDA	24%	3/1	5/1	+11	2▲··
R8	4	HAULIN ICE	12%	7/1	4/1	-3	4···
R8	2	KAPPA KAPPA	10%	9/1	10/1	+3	3···
R8	3	STRIKER HAS DIAL	8%	12/1	10/1	+1	5···
R8	5	GOING STEADY	4%	25/1	30/1	+1	6···
R8	7	DO GOODER	2%	50/1	30/1	0	7···
R96 1/2 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $110,000Contested pace likely (6 early-speed types)pass
R9	4	SENIOR OFFICER	24%	3/1	9/5	-4	1▲··
R9	5	SACROSANCT	15%	11/2	6/1	+4	2▲··
R9	2	BRING THE SMOKE	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	3···
R9	8	TIP TOP THOMAS	10%	9/1	7/2	-8	8▼··
R9	7	OVER AND OLLIE	8%	11/1	10/1	+1	4▼··
R9	6	IGNITE THE LIGHT	8%	11/1	15/1	+3	7▲··
R9	9	ACOUSTIC AVE	8%	11/1	8/1	-1	6▼··
R9	3	TARANTINO	8%	12/1	15/1	+3	5···
R9	10	LIGHT MAN	5%	20/1	20/1	+1	9···
R9	1	STARS AND STRIDES	4%	25/1	12/1	-2	10···
R101 3/8 miles turfMaiden special weightEven pace1 flag
R10	10	PHANTOM BLUE	33%	2/1	5/2	+11	1···
R10	7	WHITETHORN	18%	9/2	2/1	-8	2···
R10	9	MARY LOIS	13%	7/1	6/1	+2	3···
R10	2	AMERICAN DEBUTANTE	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	4···
R10	8	ONEHOTMESS	8%	11/1	12/1	+2	5···
R10	5	DON'T LOOK NOW	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	6···
R10	1	EENYMEANYMIGHTYMO	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	7···
R10	4	ISADORA DUNCAN	4%	20/1	12/1	-2	8···
R10	6	ABUNDANT LOVE	2%	30/1	15/1	-2	9···
R10	3	RAGING BLOOM	1%	50/1	30/1	-1	10···

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 10 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet

R1Chalk6Showa20%4/13/1

How it sets up

turfEven pace8 going

The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 20% against the board's 20%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	SHOWA	20%	4/1	3/1
4	HIGH OFFICIAL	17%	5/1	7/2
2	GENEVA LAKE	16%	11/2	4/1
8	JERSEY GUY	16%	11/2	4/1
3	HARBAUGH	11%	8/1	6/1
1	KIPROS	8%	11/1	8/1
5	LE PATRON	6%	15/1	12/1
7	BLUE LAW	6%	15/1	12/1

R2Lean5Son Of A Birch25%3/15/2

How it sets up

turfEven pace8 going

Our top-rated horse in a $50,000 optional claimer. We make the top one 25% against the board's 22%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	SON OF A BIRCH	25%	3/1	5/2
4	VACATION DANCE	16%	5/1	9/2
6	SHEFFLIN	15%	6/1	3/1
8	NIAGARA SKYLINE	14%	6/1	6/1
2	FLUID SITUATION	10%	9/1	6/1
7	DOCTOR JEFF	9%	11/1	8/1
3	TRUST ISSUES	6%	15/1	20/1
1	BILLIONAIRES ROW	5%	20/1	8/1

R3Chalk2Don't Be Salty20%4/13/1

How it sets up

dirtEven pace8 going

The board and our number agree in a restricted stakes. We make the top one 20% against the board's 20%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	DON'T BE SALTY	20%	4/1	3/1
1	BEIRA	18%	9/2	4/1
3	KYLE'S MOM	13%	7/1	9/2
7	KATIE KING	12%	15/2	8/1
8	ROYAL BOBBIE	12%	15/2	5/1
5	ANGEL BELLA	12%	15/2	4/1
4	RACING COLORS	8%	11/1	10/1
6	BOURBON N LACE	5%	20/1	12/1

R4Scramble3Emirates Road17%5/15/2

How it sets up

dirtContested4 of 9 want the lead

Go forward6

Pace helps359

An open heat. Nothing separates the top two by more than 1.6 points. Four horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	EMIRATES ROAD	17%	5/1	5/2
9	COUNTERSPY	16%	11/2	9/2
4	ALTERNATE REALITY	14%	6/1	6/1
2	FORT NELSON	12%	15/2	7/2
8	BIG BLUE LINE	10%	9/1	8/1
7	CASTLE CHAOS	9%	10/1	8/1
5	FRIZZANTE	8%	11/1	8/1
1	NOTED	7%	12/1	15/1
6	CELESTIAL GLAZE	7%	15/1	15/1

R7Chalk3Willintoriskitall16%5/17/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pace11 going

The board and our number agree in a restricted stakes. A full field of eleven.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	WILLINTORISKITALL	16%	5/1	7/2
4	GOLDEN SYMPHONY	12%	15/2	6/1
10	ART FAIR	11%	8/1	8/1
7	SOUTH BEND TOM	10%	9/1	9/2
11	EGYPTIAN	10%	9/1	10/1
6	DISCOTHEQUE	9%	10/1	6/1
1	MOMENTUM FILES	8%	11/1	8/1
2	HOT PROPERTY	7%	12/1	8/1
8	MASTER FREUD	7%	12/1	10/1
9	BEARY FUNNY	6%	15/1	20/1
5	CONNIVING	3%	30/1	30/1

R9Chalk4Senior Officer24%3/19/5

How it sets up

dirtContested6 of 10 want the lead

Go forward789

Pace helps456

The board and our number agree in a $110,000 allowance optional claimer. Six horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	SENIOR OFFICER	24%	3/1	9/5
5	SACROSANCT	15%	11/2	6/1
2	BRING THE SMOKE	10%	9/1	8/1
8	TIP TOP THOMAS	10%	9/1	7/2
7	OVER AND OLLIE	8%	11/1	10/1
6	IGNITE THE LIGHT	8%	11/1	15/1
9	ACOUSTIC AVE	8%	11/1	8/1
3	TARANTINO	8%	12/1	15/1
10	LIGHT MAN	5%	20/1	20/1
1	STARS AND STRIDES	4%	25/1	12/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 3c797c7f · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 99d2c0a8398a… · Scratch status checked at 5:49 PM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

This card was produced under the methodology version identified at publication. Detailed implementation parameters are proprietary and are no longer displayed. The original selections, probabilities, prices, timestamps, grading and integrity evidence are unchanged, and the locked card file below is the original. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash	`db33d2f0e2962fc12a2b41a048d464feb4607e65be7c9d21ebe8485e860b61ac`
Original recorded lock hash	`99d2c0a8398a0d5db7e7379fbc745175bf2ca30f400d7ce7982960400ea69c1e`
OpenTimestamps status	Bitcoin confirmed · block 959652

This card was generated on Windows. Its original lock hash was calculated from CRLF-formatted bytes before Git stored the same JSON with LF line endings. The selections and JSON values are unchanged. Use the downloadable artifact hash above to verify the public file. Full correction record · chc-2026-07-26-sar-card-01.

Metadata note. This card’s meta.json proof commits to the metadata as originally published. That file was later edited (publish time, weather, per-pick notes), so it no longer matches its original proof. A separate proof for the current metadata is published as meta.current.json.ots. The card hash embedded in the metadata never changed, and this card’s card.json proof is unaffected.