Saratoga & Del Mar · 2026 Meets · Model v0-heuristic-1.4 the anti-tout
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Transparent racing cards · Locked before post · Every pick graded

Saratoga, Sat Jul 25, 2026

4 value plays today · 8 races we're passing
StatusCompleted · races run
First post1:10 PM ET
Scratch checkAs of 10:00 AM ET
Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Sat Jul 25, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day
8EMERGING MARKET
Race 6 · 1 1/8 miles dirt
40%model3/2fair8/5boardWINpaid at the close
Our biggest edge on the card today (+9 pts over the board), the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number, so size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.
Today at SaratogaSunny, 83°F, wind 3 mph · rain 0%, no off-track flagNWS forecast
Flags 4 of 12 races
Race 4 · 1 mile · turf · Allowance $105,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterFlagShare
5INSPEIGHTOFCHARLIE
Model
Fair
Board
26%
3/1
7/2
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more3/1 break-even7/2 board
Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Even pace10 going

No one horse is entitled to the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

It tops our own win number, 3.0 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
5INSPEIGHTOFCHARLIE 26%3/17/2
3HONOREE23%7/25/2
2SIR OSCAR19%4/13/1
9NAGUILE11%8/16/1
10PERFECTWORKS6%15/112/1
7ORTUS4%25/112/1
4THREE THIRTEEN3%30/115/1
1CHARLES J3%30/112/1
8ALZERO2%50/120/1
6KINGS DANCER1%99/130/1
Race 6 · 1 1/8 miles · dirt · Optional claiming $80,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterFlagShare
8EMERGING MARKET
Model
Fair
Board
40%
3/2
8/5
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more3/2 break-even8/5 board
Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Even pace8 going

Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It tops our own win number, 27.7 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
8EMERGING MARKET 40%3/28/5
2WYNSTOCK12%15/25/1
1DREAMLIKE11%15/27/2
6LE GRIS9%10/16/1
4RESILIENCE9%10/16/1
3WAITLIST7%15/112/1
7PAROS7%15/115/1
5GENERAL BANKER5%20/112/1
Race 8 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Optional claiming $100,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterFlagShare
5PAIGE TURNER
Model
Fair
Board
13%
7/1
12/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more7/1 break-even12/1 board
Price should hold A long board price the late money tends to leave alone, so you should still get a strong number at post, the fullest version of the edge.
Ranks #2 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Contested4 of 12 want the lead
Go forward110
Pace helps567

Four of the 12 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile and a sixteenth on turf in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

A price play. PAIGE TURNER is not likely on its own, but the board has it longer than we do, and on a horse this price that is where a payout actually lives.

It rates third on our own win number, 2.8 points behind the top, and with 4 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

4 of the 12 want the front over a mile and a sixteenth on turf, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
12KOKOMOTION16%11/23/1
9BELLA KNOWS14%6/14/1
5PAIGE TURNER 13%7/112/1
4SOLOIST12%15/210/1
2CROSSOVER CAPITAL8%12/15/1
7RIVER RIDE7%15/110/1
6VEKOMA VIEW6%15/110/1
11ABIGAIL6%15/115/1
3R SLEW OF CASH6%15/120/1
8NEW ROSE5%15/115/1
1BOURBON BETTY5%20/18/1
10PEOPLE WATCHING3%30/130/1
Race 11 · 5 1/2 furlongs · turf · Allowance $105,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterFlagShare
3TUTHILLTOWN
Model
Fair
Board
11%
8/1
12/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more8/1 break-even12/1 board
Price should hold A long board price the late money tends to leave alone, so you should still get a strong number at post, the fullest version of the edge.
Ranks #2 in our power figure blend.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Contested6 of 12 want the lead
Go forward5611
Pace helps1212

Six of the 12 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five and a half furlongs on turf in an allowance should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

A price play. TUTHILLTOWN is not likely on its own, but the board has it longer than we do, and on a horse this price that is where a payout actually lives.

It rates third on our own win number, 9.6 points behind the top, and with 6 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

6 of the 12 want the front over five and a half furlongs on turf, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
12FAIRY GODMOTHER21%4/17/2
7DANCINGWITHDESTINY14%13/24/1
3TUTHILLTOWN 11%8/112/1
4MOONLIGHT READY10%9/19/2
9SHE'S OUR TIZ10%9/18/1
2SINEAD8%12/18/1
6MISS JANE HATHAWAY7%12/110/1
8VERNON VALLEY6%15/112/1
1JULIET ON APPROACH6%15/120/1
5TURRIGA4%25/110/1
11HONEST REASON2%50/120/1
10FIFI LA FUME2%50/130/1
The whole card every runner, our number beside the board
Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R#HorseModelFairBoardEdgeWhy
R16 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R17ELEVATED26%3/12/10····
R19BADITTUDE14%6/19/20····
R16HELP A GIRL OUT13%13/25/10····
R15INTRAOSSEOUS10%9/18/1+11···
R11TEXAS DANDELION9%10/16/1-23···
R13MS LIU9%10/18/102···
R18MYSTICIOUS9%10/18/10····
R12LADY GIRVIN5%20/115/10····
R14LUCERRA5%20/115/10····
R21 mile dirtStarter allowance, $40,000 levelContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R27TIMIA22%7/23/1+31··
R23POWER OF WOMEN21%4/15/2-12··
R22A. P. SLINGSHOT16%11/27/2-24··
R21LADY WISDOM13%13/25/103···
R28SUCCESSFUL AGENDA8%11/16/1-37···
R24SABBY SUNSET8%12/112/1+25···
R26SPIRIT OF ESTHER6%15/112/106··
R25LADY DELILAH5%20/115/108···
R36 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R39GRAND YAUPON17%5/13/1-31···
R33FERRUM14%6/19/20····
R36FOOLIN13%13/25/10····
R31BLACKJACK12%15/28/1+32···
R34SILVERUS11%8/16/10····
R37BACKLASH9%10/18/10····
R310BELZONI9%11/18/10····
R38GOLD ON BLACK6%15/112/10····
R35CACTUS CLOSER5%20/115/10····
R32WARRIOR AT HEART5%20/115/10····
R41 mile turfAllowance $105,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pace1 flag
R45INSPEIGHTOFCHARLIE26%3/17/2+91···
R43HONOREE23%7/25/2+12···
R42SIR OSCAR19%4/13/103···
R49NAGUILE11%8/16/104···
R410PERFECTWORKS6%15/112/105···
R47ORTUS4%25/112/1-26···
R44THREE THIRTEEN3%30/115/1-27···
R41CHARLES J3%30/112/1-39···
R48ALZERO2%50/120/1-18···
R46KINGS DANCER1%99/130/1-110···
R51 1/16 miles turfOptional claiming $100,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pacepass
R510INSTABILITY27%5/25/2+51···
R56KING'S REMARK12%15/29/2-23···
R511CHAMBERSVILLE12%15/26/102···
R55GO GREY8%11/18/105···
R58WOODS8%11/18/1-17···
R53QUIET POWER8%12/110/1+16···
R57CHICKEN DANCE7%12/115/1+34···
R52SILENT IMPACT7%15/110/1-18···
R59TIZ TROUBLE6%15/18/1-39···
R51OMAHA STORM3%30/120/1-110···
R54NUCK CHORRIS2%30/120/1-111···
R61 1/8 miles dirtOptional claiming $80,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pace1 flag
R68EMERGING MARKET40%3/28/5+91···
R62WYNSTOCK12%15/25/1-12···
R61DREAMLIKE11%15/27/2-64···
R66LE GRIS9%10/16/1-23···
R64RESILIENCE9%10/16/1-25···
R63WAITLIST7%15/112/1+17···
R67PAROS7%15/115/1+26···
R65GENERAL BANKER5%20/112/1-18···
R71 mile turfAllowance $105,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (5 early-speed types)pass
R79OAT COUTOUR18%9/27/204··
R74JACK'S WORLD17%5/13/1-33···
R75SUPER DAVE16%11/29/2+11··
R78SAMMY C NOTE15%11/26/1+42···
R77CALVIN'S RIDE12%7/16/1+15··
R72TWIRLING LAD7%15/18/1-26··
R710WIT STORM6%15/115/1+17··
R71GUILTY5%20/115/108···
R76STORMY BIRTHDAY3%30/115/1-29···
R73MISSIONATTHEGLEN1%50/130/1-110··
R81 1/16 miles turfOptional claiming $100,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)1 flag
R812KOKOMOTION16%11/23/1-43···
R89BELLA KNOWS14%6/14/1-24···
R85PAIGE TURNER13%7/112/1+72··
R84SOLOIST12%15/210/1+51···
R82CROSSOVER CAPITAL8%12/15/1-511···
R87RIVER RIDE7%15/110/108··
R86VEKOMA VIEW6%15/110/1-19··
R811ABIGAIL6%15/115/1+15···
R83R SLEW OF CASH6%15/120/1+26···
R88NEW ROSE5%15/115/1+17···
R81BOURBON BETTY5%20/18/1-410··
R810PEOPLE WATCHING3%30/130/1012··
R96 furlongs dirtGrade 2 stakesContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R98BUILT22%7/28/5-81···
R96HYMN16%5/15/1+31··
R91DAMON'S MOUND15%6/14/1-13···
R94JUST BEAT THE ODDS13%13/29/2-14···
R92CRAZY MASON12%7/18/1+45··
R97T KRAFT10%9/18/1+16···
R93CAT ON TIME6%15/115/1+17···
R95NUTELLA FELLA5%20/115/108··
R101 1/8 miles dirtGrade 1 stakesEven pacepass
R106ALWAYS A RUNNER28%5/29/5+11···
R101COUNTING STARS22%7/22/1-42···
R108ZANY15%6/19/2+13···
R107DIRECTIVE10%9/16/1-14···
R103LA RASCASSE10%9/18/1+15···
R102DANDONA5%20/120/1+26···
R105MEASURE4%25/115/1-18···
R109NYCON4%25/130/1+17···
R104MISS FULTON GAL3%30/130/109···
R115 1/2 furlongs turfAllowance $105,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (6 early-speed types)1 flag
R1112FAIRY GODMOTHER21%4/17/2+41··
R117DANCINGWITHDESTINY14%13/24/1-23···
R113TUTHILLTOWN11%8/112/1+52···
R114MOONLIGHT READY10%9/19/2-46···
R119SHE'S OUR TIZ10%9/18/1+14···
R112SINEAD8%12/18/1-18··
R116MISS JANE HATHAWAY7%12/110/105··
R118VERNON VALLEY6%15/112/107···
R111JULIET ON APPROACH6%15/120/1+29··
R115TURRIGA4%25/110/1-310··
R1111HONEST REASON2%50/120/1-111··
R1110FIFI LA FUME2%50/130/1-112···
R121 1/16 miles turfMaiden claiming $50,000Even pacepass
R127LEAVE ME30%5/22/1+41···
R125LOBBYIST14%13/23/1-63···
R1210FOTO11%8/18/1+22···
R129KULEANA10%9/18/1+15···
R121DINGHY BAR10%9/112/1+44···
R122BIG FAT GOALIE9%11/18/10····
R124GILBANE7%15/16/1-46···
R126DRAYDEN5%20/115/107···
R123FOLLOWILL4%25/115/1-18···
R128ZIP FOR RICK2%50/150/109···

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 12 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet
R1Chalk7Elevated26%3/12/1
How it sets up
dirtEven pace9 going
The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 26% against the board's 26%.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
7ELEVATED26%3/12/1
9BADITTUDE14%6/19/2
6HELP A GIRL OUT13%13/25/1
5INTRAOSSEOUS10%9/18/1
1TEXAS DANDELION9%10/16/1
3MS LIU9%10/18/1
8MYSTICIOUS9%10/18/1
2LADY GIRVIN5%20/115/1
4LUCERRA5%20/115/1
R2Lean7Timia22%7/23/1
How it sets up
dirtContested3 of 8 want the lead
Go forward367
Pace helps2
Our top-rated horse in a restricted stakes. Three of them want the lead. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
7TIMIA22%7/23/1
3POWER OF WOMEN21%4/15/2
2A. P. SLINGSHOT16%11/27/2
1LADY WISDOM13%13/25/1
8SUCCESSFUL AGENDA8%11/16/1
4SABBY SUNSET8%12/112/1
6SPIRIT OF ESTHER6%15/112/1
5LADY DELILAH5%20/115/1
R3Scramble9Grand Yaupon17%5/13/1
How it sets up
dirtEven pace10 going
A full field of ten. Nothing separates the top two by more than 2.4 points. We make the top one 17% against the board's 20%.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
9GRAND YAUPON17%5/13/1
3FERRUM14%6/19/2
6FOOLIN13%13/25/1
1BLACKJACK12%15/28/1
4SILVERUS11%8/16/1
7BACKLASH9%10/18/1
10BELZONI9%11/18/1
8GOLD ON BLACK6%15/112/1
5CACTUS CLOSER5%20/115/1
2WARRIOR AT HEART5%20/115/1
R5Lean10Instability27%5/25/2
How it sets up
turfEven pace11 going
Our top-rated horse in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer. We make the top one 27% against the board's 22%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 5 points.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
10INSTABILITY27%5/25/2
6KING'S REMARK12%15/29/2
11CHAMBERSVILLE12%15/26/1
5GO GREY8%11/18/1
8WOODS8%11/18/1
3QUIET POWER8%12/110/1
7CHICKEN DANCE7%12/115/1
2SILENT IMPACT7%15/110/1
9TIZ TROUBLE6%15/18/1
1OMAHA STORM3%30/120/1
4NUCK CHORRIS2%30/120/1
R7Scramble9Oat Coutour18%9/27/2
How it sets up
turfContested5 of 10 want the lead
Go forward235
Pace helps7910
A full field of ten. Nothing separates the top two by more than 0.9 points. Five horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
9OAT COUTOUR18%9/27/2
4JACK'S WORLD17%5/13/1
5SUPER DAVE16%11/29/2
8SAMMY C NOTE15%11/26/1
7CALVIN'S RIDE12%7/16/1
2TWIRLING LAD7%15/18/1
10WIT STORM6%15/115/1
1GUILTY5%20/115/1
6STORMY BIRTHDAY3%30/115/1
3MISSIONATTHEGLEN1%50/130/1
R9Chalk8Built22%7/28/5
How it sets up
dirtContested3 of 8 want the lead
Pace helps256
The board and our number agree in a Grade 2. Three of them want the lead. We make the favourite, #8 BUILT, 22% against the board's 30%, shorter than we think it should be. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
8BUILT22%7/28/5
6HYMN16%5/15/1
1DAMON'S MOUND15%6/14/1
4JUST BEAT THE ODDS13%13/29/2
2CRAZY MASON12%7/18/1
7T KRAFT10%9/18/1
3CAT ON TIME6%15/115/1
5NUTELLA FELLA5%20/115/1
R10Chalk6Always A Runner28%5/29/5
How it sets up
dirtEven pace9 going
The board and our number agree in a Grade 1. We make the top one 28% against the board's 27%.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
6ALWAYS A RUNNER28%5/29/5
1COUNTING STARS22%7/22/1
8ZANY15%6/19/2
7DIRECTIVE10%9/16/1
3LA RASCASSE10%9/18/1
2DANDONA5%20/120/1
5MEASURE4%25/115/1
9NYCON4%25/130/1
4MISS FULTON GAL3%30/130/1
R12Lean7Leave Me30%5/22/1
How it sets up
turfEven pace10 going
Our top-rated horse in a $50,000 maiden claimer. We make the top one 30% against the board's 26%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 4 points.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
7LEAVE ME30%5/22/1
5LOBBYIST14%13/23/1
10FOTO11%8/18/1
9KULEANA10%9/18/1
1DINGHY BAR10%9/112/1
2BIG FAT GOALIE9%11/18/1
4GILBANE7%15/16/1
6DRAYDEN5%20/115/1
3FOLLOWILL4%25/115/1
8ZIP FOR RICK2%50/150/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 030f208e · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 f82ed51d5645… · Scratches as of 10:00 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

This card was produced under the methodology version identified at publication. Detailed implementation parameters are proprietary and are no longer displayed. The original selections, probabilities, prices, timestamps, grading and integrity evidence are unchanged, and the locked card file below is the original. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash7ed9dae36137d5e85afc83bff4b78f87e14bcc1b15953ae7c225d5b22efc52a7
Original recorded lock hashf82ed51d5645eb05a834131508995d469b6c068b63fb1fb83f4c47e3e867ab1b
OpenTimestamps statusBitcoin confirmed · block 959570

This card was generated on Windows. Its original lock hash was calculated from CRLF-formatted bytes before Git stored the same JSON with LF line endings. The selections and JSON values are unchanged. Use the downloadable artifact hash above to verify the public file. Full correction record · chc-2026-07-25-sar-card-01.

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