Del Mar, Sat Jul 25, 2026

11 races · published 10:29 AM ET · card locked

4 value plays today · 7 races we're passing

StatusCompleted · races run

First post5:00 PM ET

Scratch checkAs of 10:00 AM ET

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Sat Jul 25, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day

10VENTRY STRAND

Race 7 · 1 mile turf

32%model2/1fair7/2boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+15 pts over the board), the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number, so size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Today at Del MarPartly Sunny, 77°F, wind 0 to 5 mph · rain 1%, no off-track flagNWS forecast

Flags 4 of 11 races

New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.

Today’s plays4 flags

RaceHorseModelBoardEdge

R17Kinzlee'scharisma24%4/1+8 pts R710Ventry Strand32%7/2+15 pts R93Can't Sleep21%8/1+12 pts R106Cornucopian26%3/1+6 pts

Race 1 · 6 1/2 furlongs · dirt · Maiden optional claiming $32,000Flag

7KINZLEE'SCHARISMA

Model

Fair

Board

24%

3/1

4/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace8 going

Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

It tops our own win number, 7.2 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
7	KINZLEE'SCHARISMA ◀	24%	3/1	4/1
5	SWIMMINGLY	16%	5/1	4/1
2	CAMMY'S GIRL	16%	5/1	6/1
6	SMOKIN HOT STUFF	16%	5/1	7/2
1	MY GIRL MIA	12%	15/2	5/2
3	JOY THE IMAGE	6%	15/1	12/1
4	MASHIE NIBLICK	6%	15/1	12/1
8	KYATHOS	3%	30/1	20/1

Race 7 · 1 mile · turf · Optional claiming $20,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterFlag

10VENTRY STRAND

Model

Fair

Board

32%

2/1

7/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace10 going

No one horse is entitled to the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It tops our own win number, 19.9 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
10	VENTRY STRAND ◀	32%	2/1	7/2
3	ALLEQUIN SUMMER	12%	7/1	5/1
1	KNOWN IDEA	12%	7/1	4/1
9	DOUBLE JAB	12%	15/2	5/1
6	STYLISHLYACCLAIMED	8%	11/1	5/1
4	ORACLE OF PARADISE	8%	12/1	8/1
7	NAFTIS	6%	15/1	15/1
5	BEEBLEBROX	4%	25/1	12/1
8	CARDIFF CRACK	4%	25/1	20/1
2	SPEED OF ELON	2%	50/1	20/1

Race 9 · 5 furlongs · turf · Stakes, $100,000 purseFlag

3CAN'T SLEEP

Model

Fair

Board

21%

4/1

8/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price should hold A long board price the late money tends to leave alone, so you should still get a strong number at post, the fullest version of the edge.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested6 of 9 want the lead

Go forward4

Pace helps136

Six of the 9 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five furlongs on turf in a starter allowance should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It rates second on our own win number, 0.6 points behind the top, and with 6 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

6 of the 9 want the front over five furlongs on turf, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	AMORITA	21%	7/2	3/1
3	CAN'T SLEEP ◀	21%	4/1	8/1
1	SARATOGA SPECIAL	11%	8/1	7/2
4	TAHINI	10%	9/1	8/1
5	PRINCESA MOCHE	9%	10/1	8/1
10	KUWAITYA	9%	10/1	10/1
2	BIT'S TIGER MAGIC	7%	12/1	4/1
9	IMABOUTAGO	6%	15/1	12/1
8	RIPASSARE	6%	15/1	15/1

Race 10 · 6 furlongs · dirt · Grade 1 stakesFlag

6CORNUCOPIAN

Model

Fair

Board

26%

3/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

The board and our fair price round to the same number (3/1), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show, it is +6.2 points of win probability, not a longer price.

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested5 of 9 want the lead

Go forward128

Pace helps469

Five of the 9 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over six furlongs on dirt in a Grade 1 should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It tops our own win number, 11.3 points clear of the next one, and with 5 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

5 of the 9 want the front over six furlongs on dirt, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	CORNUCOPIAN ◀	26%	3/1	3/1
3	DR. VENKMAN	15%	11/2	4/1
1	MAXIMUM BOURBON	14%	13/2	7/2
5	STRONGHOLD	12%	15/2	4/1
2	LISTENUPSHANCE	9%	10/1	8/1
8	MAD HOUSE	7%	15/1	12/1
9	MOONLIGHT	7%	15/1	20/1
7	GOLD SWEEP	6%	15/1	15/1
4	FOR ALL MANKIND	5%	20/1	12/1

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board

Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R	#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Edge	Why
R16 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden optional claiming $32,000Even pace1 flag
R1	7	KINZLEE'SCHARISMA	24%	3/1	4/1	+8	1···
R1	5	SWIMMINGLY	16%	5/1	4/1	+1	3···
R1	2	CAMMY'S GIRL	16%	5/1	6/1	+5	2···
R1	6	SMOKIN HOT STUFF	16%	5/1	7/2	-1	4···
R1	1	MY GIRL MIA	12%	15/2	5/2	-11	5···
R1	3	JOY THE IMAGE	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R1	4	MASHIE NIBLICK	6%	15/1	12/1	0	6···
R1	8	KYATHOS	3%	30/1	20/1	0	7···
R26 furlongs dirtMaiden claiming $16,000Even pacepass
R2	2	BAKO COUNTRY	16%	11/2	4/1	0	1···
R2	6	TREXIMO	14%	6/1	4/1	-1	2···
R2	10	BUCKS ACTION	12%	15/2	8/1	+3	3···
R2	5	TACOS AND TEQUILA	10%	9/1	7/2	-7	8···
R2	1	BATTLE SCHOOL	10%	9/1	12/1	+4	4···
R2	11	MANILA BAY	7%	12/1	10/1	0	····
R2	3	MISSILE CRUISER	7%	12/1	20/1	+3	5···
R2	8	H Q WILSON	6%	15/1	12/1	0	7···
R2	9	TEXAS WILDCAT	6%	15/1	12/1	0	6···
R2	7	MY BOX OF LIGHT	5%	20/1	20/1	+1	9···
R2	12	COSMIC TRAIL	4%	25/1	20/1	0	10···
R2	4	CIMARRON STRIP	3%	30/1	12/1	-3	11···
R31 mile turfStakes, $100,000 purseEven pacepass
R3	2	SAQQARA SANDS	19%	4/1	3/1	0	····
R3	3	CERTITUDE	17%	5/1	9/2	+3	1···
R3	1	MAY DAY READY	17%	5/1	7/2	-1	2···
R3	7	RESOLVE	15%	11/2	5/1	+2	3···
R3	4	PUBLIC ASSEMBLY	13%	13/2	5/1	0	4···
R3	8	BALTIC FIRE	11%	8/1	6/1	-1	5···
R3	5	RAW ABILITY	4%	25/1	12/1	-2	6···
R3	6	SURF SONG	3%	30/1	20/1	-1	7···
R45 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R4	2	DOMUS	28%	5/2	2/1	+1	····
R4	7	NAYAR	24%	3/1	5/2	+1	1···
R4	5	MIDNIGHT OVATION	15%	6/1	4/1	-1	2···
R4	1	LUBIES PRINCE	9%	10/1	8/1	0	····
R4	4	WHISKEY BRIDGE	9%	10/1	8/1	0	····
R4	8	CLEAR AND PRESENT	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R4	3	DANG SON	5%	20/1	15/1	0	····
R4	6	WILL DO ONE	5%	20/1	15/1	0	····
R51 mile turfOptional claiming $20,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pacepass
R5	6	WARM SUN AND BREW	24%	3/1	5/2	+1	1···
R5	8	CHROMEFLASH	21%	4/1	3/1	+1	2···
R5	4	TRUMP ERA	12%	15/2	6/1	+1	4···
R5	2	HARDTOBEBETTERNOW	11%	8/1	10/1	+4	3···
R5	5	STEAK FRIES	8%	11/1	6/1	-3	6···
R5	7	HIGHPLAINSDRIFTER	8%	12/1	12/1	+2	5···
R5	1	KING OF DRAGONS	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	7···
R5	10	KEEP DANCIN NICK	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	8···
R5	9	DRUIDIC	4%	25/1	20/1	0	9···
R5	3	REFOCUS	3%	30/1	12/1	-3	10···
R66 1/2 furlongs dirtClaiming $12,500, non-winners of two lifetimeContested pace likely (8 early-speed types)pass
R6	7	SHADY STRIPES	18%	9/2	3/1	-2	1···
R6	2	VIOLENCES OHR	16%	5/1	6/1	+5	2▲··
R6	4	PRETTY CECY	11%	8/1	5/1	-2	3···
R6	9	A FLEET RIDE	11%	8/1	7/2	-6	4▼··
R6	11	VRONAWAY	8%	11/1	12/1	+2	5▲··
R6	5	SAVANNAHS BIG GIRL	6%	15/1	12/1	0	7···
R6	3	SUSIE'S LOADED	6%	15/1	10/1	-1	6▼··
R6	8	OM TIME GAL	6%	15/1	20/1	+2	8▲··
R6	10	ALIX	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	10···
R6	6	KAMBREE'S FLYER	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	11···
R6	12	ROYAL LADY	5%	20/1	30/1	+2	9···
R6	1	WINSOME LOVE	3%	30/1	30/1	0	12▼··
R71 mile turfOptional claiming $20,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pace1 flag
R7	10	VENTRY STRAND	32%	2/1	7/2	+15	1···
R7	3	ALLEQUIN SUMMER	12%	7/1	5/1	-1	2···
R7	1	KNOWN IDEA	12%	7/1	4/1	-4	4···
R7	9	DOUBLE JAB	12%	15/2	5/1	-1	3···
R7	6	STYLISHLYACCLAIMED	8%	11/1	5/1	-5	7···
R7	4	ORACLE OF PARADISE	8%	12/1	8/1	-1	6···
R7	7	NAFTIS	6%	15/1	15/1	+1	5···
R7	5	BEEBLEBROX	4%	25/1	12/1	-2	9···
R7	8	CARDIFF CRACK	4%	25/1	20/1	0	8···
R7	2	SPEED OF ELON	2%	50/1	20/1	-2	10···
R81 mile dirtOptional claiming $100,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (7 early-speed types)pass
R8	3	MARCH OF TIME	19%	4/1	7/2	+1	1▲··
R8	5	MIDNIGHT MAMMOTH	14%	6/1	4/1	-2	3···
R8	7	INDISPENSABLE	12%	15/2	4/1	-4	5▲··
R8	8	MC VAY	12%	15/2	8/1	+3	4···
R8	2	BARTHOLDY	11%	8/1	8/1	+2	2▼··
R8	9	MIDWAY LANE	8%	11/1	8/1	-1	6···
R8	10	FIRMUS	7%	12/1	12/1	+1	7···
R8	4	FROSTY INDULGENCE	6%	15/1	12/1	0	10▲··
R8	6	THE LAST STRAW	5%	20/1	15/1	0	9···
R8	1	MORUNNING	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	8▼··
R95 furlongs turfStakes, $100,000 purseContested pace likely (6 early-speed types)1 flag
R9	6	AMORITA	21%	7/2	3/1	+1	2▲··
R9	3	CAN'T SLEEP	21%	4/1	8/1	+12	1▲··
R9	1	SARATOGA SPECIAL	11%	8/1	7/2	-7	8▲··
R9	4	TAHINI	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	3▼··
R9	5	PRINCESA MOCHE	9%	10/1	8/1	0	5···
R9	10	KUWAITYA	9%	10/1	10/1	+1	4···
R9	2	BIT'S TIGER MAGIC	7%	12/1	4/1	-9	9···
R9	9	IMABOUTAGO	6%	15/1	12/1	0	6···
R9	8	RIPASSARE	6%	15/1	15/1	+1	7···
R106 furlongs dirtGrade 1 stakesContested pace likely (5 early-speed types)1 flag
R10	6	CORNUCOPIAN	26%	3/1	3/1	+6	1▲··
R10	3	DR. VENKMAN	15%	11/2	4/1	-1	2···
R10	1	MAXIMUM BOURBON	14%	13/2	7/2	-4	3▼··
R10	5	STRONGHOLD	12%	15/2	4/1	-4	5···
R10	2	LISTENUPSHANCE	9%	10/1	8/1	0	4▼··
R10	8	MAD HOUSE	7%	15/1	12/1	+1	6▼··
R10	9	MOONLIGHT	7%	15/1	20/1	+3	7▲··
R10	7	GOLD SWEEP	6%	15/1	15/1	+1	8···
R10	4	FOR ALL MANKIND	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	9▲··
R111 1/16 miles turfOptional claiming $50,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pacepass
R11	10	TAKE ANOTHER CARD	18%	9/2	7/2	+1	1···
R11	2	KIKURIDE	14%	6/1	6/1	+3	2···
R11	3	LADY IN PARIS	13%	13/2	5/1	0	3···
R11	7	AMERICA'S MARK	13%	7/1	5/1	0	4···
R11	5	MISO PHANSY	10%	10/1	6/1	-2	6···
R11	9	YOGA MASTER	9%	10/1	10/1	+2	5···
R11	8	BETTE DAVIS EYES	6%	15/1	12/1	0	7···
R11	4	UPCHARGE	6%	15/1	6/1	-5	10···
R11	11	QUANTUM INNERGY	5%	15/1	20/1	+2	8···
R11	1	MIDNIGHT HORIZON	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	9···

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 11 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet

R2Scramble2Bako Country16%11/24/1

How it sets up

dirtEven pace12 going

A full field of twelve. Nothing separates the top two by more than 1.0 point. We make the top one 16% against the board's 16%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	BAKO COUNTRY	16%	11/2	4/1
6	TREXIMO	14%	6/1	4/1
10	BUCKS ACTION	12%	15/2	8/1
5	TACOS AND TEQUILA	10%	9/1	7/2
1	BATTLE SCHOOL	10%	9/1	12/1
11	MANILA BAY	7%	12/1	10/1
3	MISSILE CRUISER	7%	12/1	20/1
8	H Q WILSON	6%	15/1	12/1
9	TEXAS WILDCAT	6%	15/1	12/1
7	MY BOX OF LIGHT	5%	20/1	20/1
12	COSMIC TRAIL	4%	25/1	20/1
4	CIMARRON STRIP	3%	30/1	12/1

R3Scramble2Saqqara Sands19%4/13/1

How it sets up

turfEven pace8 going

An open heat. Nothing separates the top two by more than 2.3 points. We make the top one 19% against the board's 20%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	SAQQARA SANDS	19%	4/1	3/1
3	CERTITUDE	17%	5/1	9/2
1	MAY DAY READY	17%	5/1	7/2
7	RESOLVE	15%	11/2	5/1
4	PUBLIC ASSEMBLY	13%	13/2	5/1
8	BALTIC FIRE	11%	8/1	6/1
5	RAW ABILITY	4%	25/1	12/1
6	SURF SONG	3%	30/1	20/1

R4Chalk2Domus28%5/22/1

How it sets up

dirtEven pace8 going

The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 28% against the board's 27%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	DOMUS	28%	5/2	2/1
7	NAYAR	24%	3/1	5/2
5	MIDNIGHT OVATION	15%	6/1	4/1
1	LUBIES PRINCE	9%	10/1	8/1
4	WHISKEY BRIDGE	9%	10/1	8/1
8	CLEAR AND PRESENT	6%	15/1	12/1
3	DANG SON	5%	20/1	15/1
6	WILL DO ONE	5%	20/1	15/1

R5Chalk6Warm Sun And Brew24%3/15/2

How it sets up

turfEven pace10 going

The board and our number agree in a $20,000 allowance optional claimer. A full field of ten.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	WARM SUN AND BREW	24%	3/1	5/2
8	CHROMEFLASH	21%	4/1	3/1
4	TRUMP ERA	12%	15/2	6/1
2	HARDTOBEBETTERNOW	11%	8/1	10/1
5	STEAK FRIES	8%	11/1	6/1
7	HIGHPLAINSDRIFTER	8%	12/1	12/1
1	KING OF DRAGONS	5%	20/1	12/1
10	KEEP DANCIN NICK	5%	20/1	12/1
9	DRUIDIC	4%	25/1	20/1
3	REFOCUS	3%	30/1	12/1

R6Scramble7Shady Stripes18%9/23/1

How it sets up

dirtContested8 of 12 want the lead

Go forward139

Pace helps2811

A full field of twelve. Nothing separates the top two by more than 1.1 points. Eight horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
7	SHADY STRIPES	18%	9/2	3/1
2	VIOLENCES OHR	16%	5/1	6/1
4	PRETTY CECY	11%	8/1	5/1
9	A FLEET RIDE	11%	8/1	7/2
11	VRONAWAY	8%	11/1	12/1
5	SAVANNAHS BIG GIRL	6%	15/1	12/1
3	SUSIE'S LOADED	6%	15/1	10/1
8	OM TIME GAL	6%	15/1	20/1
10	ALIX	5%	20/1	12/1
6	KAMBREE'S FLYER	5%	20/1	12/1
12	ROYAL LADY	5%	20/1	30/1
1	WINSOME LOVE	3%	30/1	30/1

R8Chalk3March Of Time19%4/17/2

How it sets up

dirtContested7 of 10 want the lead

Go forward12

Pace helps347

The board and our number agree in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer. Seven horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	MARCH OF TIME	19%	4/1	7/2
5	MIDNIGHT MAMMOTH	14%	6/1	4/1
7	INDISPENSABLE	12%	15/2	4/1
8	MC VAY	12%	15/2	8/1
2	BARTHOLDY	11%	8/1	8/1
9	MIDWAY LANE	8%	11/1	8/1
10	FIRMUS	7%	12/1	12/1
4	FROSTY INDULGENCE	6%	15/1	12/1
6	THE LAST STRAW	5%	20/1	15/1
1	MORUNNING	5%	20/1	12/1

R11Chalk10Take Another Card18%9/27/2

How it sets up

turfEven pace10 going

The board and our number agree in a $50,000 allowance optional claimer. A full field of ten.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
10	TAKE ANOTHER CARD	18%	9/2	7/2
2	KIKURIDE	14%	6/1	6/1
3	LADY IN PARIS	13%	13/2	5/1
7	AMERICA'S MARK	13%	7/1	5/1
5	MISO PHANSY	10%	10/1	6/1
9	YOGA MASTER	9%	10/1	10/1
8	BETTE DAVIS EYES	6%	15/1	12/1
4	UPCHARGE	6%	15/1	6/1
11	QUANTUM INNERGY	5%	15/1	20/1
1	MIDNIGHT HORIZON	5%	20/1	12/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 030f208e · takeout (DMR) win 15.43% / exacta 22.68% · card SHA-256 7bfff866e6b7… · Scratches as of 10:00 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

This card was produced under the methodology version identified at publication. Detailed implementation parameters are proprietary and are no longer displayed. The original selections, probabilities, prices, timestamps, grading and integrity evidence are unchanged, and the locked card file below is the original. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash	`6784f29f6adc84a4107bfa9e73233fecad7d764c60fbd4464c5fed6f1a665963`
Original recorded lock hash	`7bfff866e6b7172b7d7c39cf3514d75fa964d4898fa5cb0db6b0810b18a0935e`
OpenTimestamps status	Bitcoin confirmed · block 959570

This card was generated on Windows. Its original lock hash was calculated from CRLF-formatted bytes before Git stored the same JSON with LF line endings. The selections and JSON values are unchanged. Use the downloadable artifact hash above to verify the public file. Full correction record · chc-2026-07-25-dmr-card-01.