Saratoga, Thu Jul 23, 2026

9 races · published 4:17 AM ET · card locked

4 value plays today · 6 races we're passing

StatusCompleted · races run

First post1:10 PM ET

Scratch checkAs of 4:00 AM ET

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Thu Jul 23, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day

5CELTIC DAWN

Race 7 · 1 1/16 miles turf

32%model2/1fair5/2boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+10 pts over the board), the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number, so size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Today at SaratogaMostly Clear, 53°F, wind 1 mph · rain 0%, no off-track flagNWS forecast

Flags 4 of 9 races

New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.

Today’s plays4 flags

RaceHorseModelBoardEdge

R13Bounding Along26%7/2+8 pts R42Spirit Of St Louis33%2/1+7 pts R45Salamis29%5/2+6 pts R75Celtic Dawn32%5/2+10 pts

Likely bet down All 4 flags today. A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Race 1 · 7 furlongs · dirt · Maiden claiming $35,000Flag

3BOUNDING ALONG

Model

Fair

Board

26%

3/1

7/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested3 of 9 want the lead

Go forward24568

Pace helps3

Three of the 9 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over seven furlongs on dirt in a $35,000 maiden claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It tops our own win number, 2.7 points clear of the next one, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

3 of the 9 want the front over seven furlongs on dirt, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	BOUNDING ALONG ◀	26%	3/1	7/2
2	KEY ACTRESS	23%	7/2	5/2
9	AUTHENTIC BEAUTY	15%	11/2	3/1
6	RUN ON STATES	11%	8/1	5/1
5	CREDIT RISK	10%	9/1	8/1
7	NOISETOMAKENOISE	5%	20/1	10/1
1	THAT'S AMORE	4%	25/1	20/1
8	MAIZEY BLUE	4%	25/1	15/1
4	GOLDEN MIRACLE	2%	50/1	30/1

Race 4 · 1 1/8 miles · turf · Optional claiming $110,000Flag

2SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS

Model

Fair

Board

33%

2/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

The board and our fair price round to the same number (2/1), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show, it is +7.3 points of win probability, not a longer price.

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested3 of 7 want the lead

Go forward4

Pace helps135

Three of the 7 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile and an eighth on turf in a $110,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

It tops our own win number, 4.6 points clear of the next one, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

3 of the 7 want the front over a mile and an eighth on turf, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS ◀	33%	2/1	2/1
5	SALAMIS	29%	5/2	5/2
7	SAND PIPES	10%	9/1	4/1
1	BRITAIN'S KITTEN	8%	11/1	6/1
6	SEA SINGER	8%	12/1	10/1
3	BOURBON DAY	7%	12/1	8/1
4	CAPTURE THE FLAG	5%	20/1	8/1

Race 4 · 1 1/8 miles · turf · Optional claiming $110,000Flag

5SALAMIS

Model

Fair

Board

29%

5/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

The board and our fair price round to the same number (5/2), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show, it is +6.5 points of win probability, not a longer price.

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down

Ranks #2 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested3 of 7 want the lead

Go forward4

Pace helps135

The early fractions over a mile and an eighth on turf in a $110,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft, with three of the 7 entitled to the early lead.

The model’s read ▾

SALAMIS is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

It rates second on our own win number, 4.6 points behind the top, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

3 of the 7 want the front over a mile and an eighth on turf, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS	33%	2/1	2/1
5	SALAMIS ◀	29%	5/2	5/2
7	SAND PIPES	10%	9/1	4/1
1	BRITAIN'S KITTEN	8%	11/1	6/1
6	SEA SINGER	8%	12/1	10/1
3	BOURBON DAY	7%	12/1	8/1
4	CAPTURE THE FLAG	5%	20/1	8/1

Race 7 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Stakes, $200,000 purseFlag

5CELTIC DAWN

Model

Fair

Board

32%

2/1

5/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace8 going

No one horse is entitled to the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It tops our own win number, 9.7 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	CELTIC DAWN ◀	32%	2/1	5/2
3	ALL OF IT	22%	7/2	8/5
6	NESHIKA	13%	13/2	5/1
8	CONSIDERATE CITY	9%	10/1	8/1
4	ENCANTAR	8%	11/1	10/1
1	NEW YORK SPECIAL	7%	12/1	8/1
7	COSMIC CANDY GIRL	4%	20/1	15/1
2	COACH OF THE YEAR	3%	30/1	15/1

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board

Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R	#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Edge	Why
R17 furlongs dirtMaiden claiming $35,000Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag
R1	3	BOUNDING ALONG	26%	3/1	7/2	+8	1▲··
R1	2	KEY ACTRESS	23%	7/2	5/2	+1	2▼··
R1	9	AUTHENTIC BEAUTY	15%	11/2	3/1	-5	5···
R1	6	RUN ON STATES	11%	8/1	5/1	-2	3▼··
R1	5	CREDIT RISK	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	4▼··
R1	7	NOISETOMAKENOISE	5%	20/1	10/1	-2	7···
R1	1	THAT'S AMORE	4%	25/1	20/1	0	6···
R1	8	MAIZEY BLUE	4%	25/1	15/1	-1	8▼··
R1	4	GOLDEN MIRACLE	2%	50/1	30/1	-1	9▼··
R21 1/16 miles turfClaiming $55,000, non-winners of two lifetimeLone speedpass
R2	5	BLAST FURNACE	22%	7/2	3/1	+2	1···
R2	2	MAXIMUM PROMISE	15%	11/2	7/2	-2	2···
R2	3	LIGHT FANTASTIC	14%	13/2	6/1	+2	4▲··
R2	8	GUN BARREL CITY	13%	13/2	5/1	0	3···
R2	6	SHANGRALA ROAD	10%	9/1	8/1	+2	5···
R2	9	IN THE DARK	8%	12/1	6/1	-3	8···
R2	1	MADAGASCAR	7%	12/1	10/1	0	6···
R2	4	TOUGH CRITIC	7%	15/1	12/1	+1	7···
R2	7	MIDDLE MARKET	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	9···
R37 furlongs dirtClaiming $12,500Even pacepass
R3	3	NORWICH	14%	6/1	5/2	-8	6···
R3	1	NORMANDY COAST	14%	6/1	4/1	-1	3···
R3	5	QUIET WISDOM	13%	7/1	6/1	+2	1···
R3	9	HEY TOBY	12%	15/2	6/1	+1	4···
R3	7	MR SKYLIGHT	12%	15/2	8/1	+3	2···
R3	8	SHERIFF BIANCO	11%	15/2	6/1	0	5···
R3	2	RIYADH MOON	9%	11/1	12/1	+3	7···
R3	4	DOT'S DOLLAR	8%	11/1	12/1	+2	8···
R3	6	FIFTY CENT DOLLARS	7%	15/1	10/1	0	9···
R41 1/8 miles turfOptional claiming $110,000Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)2 flags
R4	2	SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS	33%	2/1	2/1	+7	1···
R4	5	SALAMIS	29%	5/2	5/2	+6	2▲··
R4	7	SAND PIPES	10%	9/1	4/1	-6	4···
R4	1	BRITAIN'S KITTEN	8%	11/1	6/1	-3	5▲··
R4	6	SEA SINGER	8%	12/1	10/1	0	3···
R4	3	BOURBON DAY	7%	12/1	8/1	-2	6▲··
R4	4	CAPTURE THE FLAG	5%	20/1	8/1	-4	7▼··
R55 1/2 furlongs turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R5	9	SIDE QUEST	25%	3/1	3/1	+6	1···
R5	4	CADILLAC MARY	18%	9/2	7/2	+1	2···
R5	1	CODY'S APPROVAL	14%	6/1	9/2	0	····
R5	3	SPLIT THE BLANKET	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R5	2	QUOTED	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R5	6	ALL SHOW	7%	15/1	10/1	0	····
R5	8	EARLY AND OFTEN	5%	20/1	15/1	0	····
R5	5	BY GRACE	4%	25/1	12/1	-2	3···
R5	7	MISS MONEY PANTS	3%	30/1	20/1	-1	4···
R5	10	SAINT DYMPHNA	3%	30/1	15/1	-2	5···
R66 furlongs dirtClaiming $20,000, non-winners of three lifetimeContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R6	1	ANCIENT WORLD	22%	7/2	8/5	-8	1···
R6	10	TAPWRITS TEMPER	12%	15/2	8/1	+3	3▲··
R6	9	SCHLOMO	12%	15/2	5/1	-1	2▼··
R6	4	NANTZ	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	5▼··
R6	2	LIBERTY RISING	9%	10/1	6/1	-2	7···
R6	8	EXECUTIVE ORDER	9%	10/1	12/1	+3	4···
R6	5	THREE LITTLE BIRDS	8%	12/1	12/1	+2	6···
R6	6	OTTO NIPOTI	7%	12/1	15/1	+2	9▲··
R6	7	EPITAPH	6%	15/1	12/1	0	8▼··
R6	3	CATCH A TIGER	5%	20/1	15/1	0	10▼··
R71 1/16 miles turfStakes, $200,000 purseEven pace1 flag
R7	5	CELTIC DAWN	32%	2/1	5/2	+10	1···
R7	3	ALL OF IT	22%	7/2	8/5	-8	2···
R7	6	NESHIKA	13%	13/2	5/1	0	3···
R7	8	CONSIDERATE CITY	9%	10/1	8/1	0	4···
R7	4	ENCANTAR	8%	11/1	10/1	+1	5···
R7	1	NEW YORK SPECIAL	7%	12/1	8/1	-1	6···
R7	7	COSMIC CANDY GIRL	4%	20/1	15/1	0	7···
R7	2	COACH OF THE YEAR	3%	30/1	15/1	-2	8···
R87 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $110,000Even pacepass
R8	2	SENZA PAROLE	18%	9/2	5/2	-4	2···
R8	1	MUNNINGS EXPRESS	18%	9/2	7/2	0	1···
R8	4	BEAUTY REIGNS	15%	11/2	7/2	-2	4···
R8	6	QUEEN'S MARTINI	12%	15/2	8/1	+3	3···
R8	7	REPUTATION	11%	9/1	6/1	-1	6···
R8	3	AUTUMN EVENING	9%	10/1	10/1	+2	5···
R8	5	DAZZLING MOVE	9%	10/1	10/1	+2	7···
R8	8	BEYOND BELIEF	8%	12/1	8/1	-1	8···
R95 1/2 furlongs turfMaiden claiming $50,000Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R9	3	MIDTOWN MISCHIEF	22%	7/2	7/2	+5	1▼··
R9	7	GARDEN OF GRACE	16%	11/2	4/1	0	3▲··
R9	1	BLUE AUTHENTICITY	14%	13/2	9/2	0	2▼··
R9	4	AVERY'S WONDERLAND	12%	15/2	5/1	-1	4▼··
R9	6	YOU KNOW BETTER	9%	10/1	8/1	+1	6▲··
R9	10	ANNA BROCKNANA	8%	11/1	6/1	-3	7▼··
R9	8	STELLA FORTUNA	8%	12/1	15/1	+3	5▲··
R9	9	MISCHIEVOUS JO	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	8···
R9	5	DANCING MIRACLE	3%	30/1	20/1	-1	9···
R9	11	SPIRIT FORWARD	2%	50/1	20/1	-2	10···
R9	2	BANK ON BEBE	1%	99/1	30/1	-2	11▼··

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 9 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet

R2Lean5Blast Furnace22%7/23/1

How it sets up

turfLone speedone gets loose on the lead, 9 going

Alone on the lead3

Our top-rated horse in a $55,000 claimer. One horse looks alone on the lead, which our pace adjustment credits. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 2 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	BLAST FURNACE	22%	7/2	3/1
2	MAXIMUM PROMISE	15%	11/2	7/2
3	LIGHT FANTASTIC	14%	13/2	6/1
8	GUN BARREL CITY	13%	13/2	5/1
6	SHANGRALA ROAD	10%	9/1	8/1
9	IN THE DARK	8%	12/1	6/1
1	MADAGASCAR	7%	12/1	10/1
4	TOUGH CRITIC	7%	15/1	12/1
7	MIDDLE MARKET	5%	20/1	12/1

R3Scramble3Norwich14%6/15/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pace9 going

An open heat. The top two are effectively level on our numbers. We make the favourite, #3 NORWICH, 14% against the board's 22%, shorter than we think it should be. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	NORWICH	14%	6/1	5/2
1	NORMANDY COAST	14%	6/1	4/1
5	QUIET WISDOM	13%	7/1	6/1
9	HEY TOBY	12%	15/2	6/1
7	MR SKYLIGHT	12%	15/2	8/1
8	SHERIFF BIANCO	11%	15/2	6/1
2	RIYADH MOON	9%	11/1	12/1
4	DOT'S DOLLAR	8%	11/1	12/1
6	FIFTY CENT DOLLARS	7%	15/1	10/1

R5Lean9Side Quest25%3/13/1

How it sets up

turfEven pace10 going

Our top-rated horse in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 25% against the board's 20%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 6 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
9	SIDE QUEST	25%	3/1	3/1
4	CADILLAC MARY	18%	9/2	7/2
1	CODY'S APPROVAL	14%	6/1	9/2
3	SPLIT THE BLANKET	11%	8/1	6/1
2	QUOTED	11%	8/1	6/1
6	ALL SHOW	7%	15/1	10/1
8	EARLY AND OFTEN	5%	20/1	15/1
5	BY GRACE	4%	25/1	12/1
7	MISS MONEY PANTS	3%	30/1	20/1
10	SAINT DYMPHNA	3%	30/1	15/1

R6Chalk1Ancient World22%7/28/5

How it sets up

dirtContested3 of 10 want the lead

Go forward3479

Pace helps610

The board and our number agree in a $20,000 claimer. Three of them want the lead. We make the favourite, #1 ANCIENT WORLD, 22% against the board's 30%, shorter than we think it should be. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	ANCIENT WORLD	22%	7/2	8/5
10	TAPWRITS TEMPER	12%	15/2	8/1
9	SCHLOMO	12%	15/2	5/1
4	NANTZ	10%	9/1	8/1
2	LIBERTY RISING	9%	10/1	6/1
8	EXECUTIVE ORDER	9%	10/1	12/1
5	THREE LITTLE BIRDS	8%	12/1	12/1
6	OTTO NIPOTI	7%	12/1	15/1
7	EPITAPH	6%	15/1	12/1
3	CATCH A TIGER	5%	20/1	15/1

R8Scramble2Senza Parole18%9/25/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pace8 going

An open heat. The top two are effectively level on our numbers. We make the top one 18% against the board's 22%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	SENZA PAROLE	18%	9/2	5/2
1	MUNNINGS EXPRESS	18%	9/2	7/2
4	BEAUTY REIGNS	15%	11/2	7/2
6	QUEEN'S MARTINI	12%	15/2	8/1
7	REPUTATION	11%	9/1	6/1
3	AUTUMN EVENING	9%	10/1	10/1
5	DAZZLING MOVE	9%	10/1	10/1
8	BEYOND BELIEF	8%	12/1	8/1

R9Lean3Midtown Mischief22%7/27/2

How it sets up

turfContested3 of 11 want the lead

Go forward123410

Pace helps678

Our top-rated horse in a $50,000 maiden claimer. Three of them want the lead. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 5 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	MIDTOWN MISCHIEF	22%	7/2	7/2
7	GARDEN OF GRACE	16%	11/2	4/1
1	BLUE AUTHENTICITY	14%	13/2	9/2
4	AVERY'S WONDERLAND	12%	15/2	5/1
6	YOU KNOW BETTER	9%	10/1	8/1
10	ANNA BROCKNANA	8%	11/1	6/1
8	STELLA FORTUNA	8%	12/1	15/1
9	MISCHIEVOUS JO	5%	20/1	12/1
5	DANCING MIRACLE	3%	30/1	20/1
11	SPIRIT FORWARD	2%	50/1	20/1
2	BANK ON BEBE	1%	99/1	30/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 107bc986 · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 834825237f68… · Scratches as of 4:00 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

This card was produced under the methodology version identified at publication. Detailed implementation parameters are proprietary and are no longer displayed. The original selections, probabilities, prices, timestamps, grading and integrity evidence are unchanged, and the locked card file below is the original. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash	`09ba713f7784c4963587f857039b90be5ba0d2bc34a6edf5a8237bab3637de87`
Original recorded lock hash	`834825237f6814531db09e433f93e92e71f2afd39be0ffa6c6ab543380ba37af`
OpenTimestamps status	Bitcoin confirmed · block 959238

This card was generated on Windows. Its original lock hash was calculated from CRLF-formatted bytes before Git stored the same JSON with LF line endings. The selections and JSON values are unchanged. Use the downloadable artifact hash above to verify the public file. Full correction record · chc-2026-07-23-sar-card-01.