Del Mar, Thu Jul 23, 2026

8 races · published 4:17 AM ET · card locked

4 value plays today · 5 races we're passing

StatusCompleted · races run

First post5:00 PM ET

Scratch checkAs of 4:00 AM ET

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Thu Jul 23, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day

8CAPTAIN SHREVE

Race 2 · 5 furlongs turf

29%model5/2fair7/2boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+11 pts over the board), the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number, so size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Today at Del MarPatchy Fog, 71°F, wind 0 mph · rain 1%, no off-track flagNWS forecast

Flags 4 of 8 races

New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.

Today’s plays4 flags

RaceHorseModelBoardEdge

R24Practical Jack14%12/1+8 pts R28Captain Shreve29%7/2+11 pts R68Canto Della Terra24%4/1+8 pts R89Suntory Time17%6/1+5 pts

Race 2 · 5 furlongs · turf · Maiden special weightFlag

4PRACTICAL JACK

Model

Fair

Board

14%

13/2

12/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price should hold A long board price the late money tends to leave alone, so you should still get a strong number at post, the fullest version of the edge.

Ranks #2 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace8 going

Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

It rates third on our own win number, 15.1 points behind the top.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
8	CAPTAIN SHREVE	29%	5/2	7/2
5	BOGARTS BUCCHERO	18%	9/2	3/1
4	PRACTICAL JACK ◀	14%	13/2	12/1
1	BULLWHACKER	12%	15/2	6/1
2	PARKER'S CANDY	8%	11/1	5/1
3	RUNNING SPARTAN	8%	12/1	4/1
7	FUZZY STARE	8%	12/1	10/1
6	FLAUBERT	4%	25/1	10/1

Race 2 · 5 furlongs · turf · Maiden special weightFlag

8CAPTAIN SHREVE

Model

Fair

Board

29%

5/2

7/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace8 going

Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It tops our own win number, 10.5 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
8	CAPTAIN SHREVE ◀	29%	5/2	7/2
5	BOGARTS BUCCHERO	18%	9/2	3/1
4	PRACTICAL JACK	14%	13/2	12/1
1	BULLWHACKER	12%	15/2	6/1
2	PARKER'S CANDY	8%	11/1	5/1
3	RUNNING SPARTAN	8%	12/1	4/1
7	FUZZY STARE	8%	12/1	10/1
6	FLAUBERT	4%	25/1	10/1

Race 6 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Optional claiming $100,000Flag

8CANTO DELLA TERRA

Model

Fair

Board

24%

3/1

4/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Lone speedone gets loose on the lead, 9 going

Alone on the lead5

One of the 9 looks alone on the lead, clear of the field on the early figures over a mile and a sixteenth on turf, with nothing else in here entitled to go with it.

The model’s read ▾

It tops our own win number, 5.1 points clear of the next one, in a race where one of them looks like getting loose on the lead.

In a field of 9 it profiles as the lone speed over a mile and a sixteenth on turf, likely alone on the lead.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
8	CANTO DELLA TERRA ◀	24%	3/1	4/1
7	THE WHITE LADY	19%	4/1	7/2
4	MI CONFESION	11%	8/1	8/1
3	RIBBONS	10%	9/1	9/2
2	BOJACA BLESSING	9%	10/1	8/1
6	DREAMING OF ABBA	8%	11/1	5/1
9	ROSELEE MAY	8%	11/1	15/1
5	PURA VIDA PRINCESA	7%	15/1	8/1
1	GRECIAN GODDESS	4%	25/1	12/1

Race 8 · 1 mile · turf · Claiming $25,000, non-winners of two lifetimeFlag

9SUNTORY TIME

Model

Fair

Board

17%

5/1

6/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace10 going

No one horse is entitled to the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

It rates second on our own win number, 3.0 points behind the top.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	ELITE HEAT	20%	4/1	3/1
9	SUNTORY TIME ◀	17%	5/1	6/1
1	MOTET	15%	6/1	7/2
2	RICH OF JOY	9%	10/1	6/1
4	LADY OF POWER	8%	12/1	6/1
3	ZARAFA	8%	12/1	12/1
7	CAN'T SAY THAT	7%	12/1	12/1
10	GREEN ZONE	7%	12/1	10/1
5	DRAGON KAT	5%	20/1	20/1
8	SAARISELKA	4%	20/1	15/1

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board

Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R	#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Edge	Why
R15 1/2 furlongs dirtClaiming $16,000Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R1	5	SENDIT MO	23%	7/2	8/5	-8	1▼··
R1	3	UECKER	16%	5/1	4/1	0	4▲··
R1	1	JOKER WENT WILD	15%	11/2	7/2	-3	2▼··
R1	7	JALISCO	14%	6/1	6/1	+3	5▲··
R1	6	STANFORD DROPOUT	13%	7/1	8/1	+4	3▼··
R1	4	ORIGINAL ONE	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	7···
R1	2	CRUCIBLE	9%	10/1	15/1	+4	6···
R25 furlongs turfMaiden special weightEven pace2 flags
R2	8	CAPTAIN SHREVE	29%	5/2	7/2	+11	1···
R2	5	BOGARTS BUCCHERO	18%	9/2	3/1	-2	3···
R2	4	PRACTICAL JACK	14%	13/2	12/1	+8	2···
R2	1	BULLWHACKER	12%	15/2	6/1	0	····
R2	2	PARKER'S CANDY	8%	11/1	5/1	-5	5···
R2	3	RUNNING SPARTAN	8%	12/1	4/1	-9	6···
R2	7	FUZZY STARE	8%	12/1	10/1	0	4···
R2	6	FLAUBERT	4%	25/1	10/1	-3	7···
R35 furlongs dirtMaiden claiming $50,000Even pacepass
R3	3	PLEASE BEHAVE	20%	4/1	4/1	+4	1···
R3	9	SHEMAKESMEMAD	16%	5/1	3/1	-4	2···
R3	4	BLONDYS FORZA	13%	13/2	5/1	0	····
R3	8	TAM'S SWISS MISS	13%	13/2	5/1	0	····
R3	5	HARKETTE	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R3	7	CLUBHOUSE ROSE	9%	10/1	8/1	0	····
R3	2	ZAYDA AT THE SPA	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R3	6	OBHAYVE	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R3	1	VAHEVALA	5%	20/1	15/1	0	····
R45 furlongs turfOptional claiming $50,000Contested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass
R4	5	LADY MARYANN	18%	9/2	4/1	+2	2▲··
R4	1	JENNYS WINE GIRL	18%	9/2	7/2	0	1···
R4	7	UNBINDING	17%	5/1	3/1	-3	3···
R4	6	WATCH OVER US	12%	15/2	6/1	0	4▼··
R4	4	FAMOUS FORZA	11%	8/1	6/1	-1	6···
R4	2	BUTTERFLY BEACH	9%	10/1	8/1	0	5▼··
R4	3	EGYPTIAN MISTRESS	9%	10/1	10/1	+2	7▲··
R4	8	SURFIN THE COAST	6%	15/1	12/1	0	8▼··
R55 furlongs dirtMaiden claiming $50,000Even pacepass
R5	5	DONT SHORT UR SELF	20%	4/1	3/1	0	····
R5	7	IMNOSURETHING	18%	9/2	7/2	0	····
R5	4	QUICK UP	13%	13/2	5/1	0	····
R5	3	BREAKAWAY BABE	13%	7/1	5/1	0	····
R5	2	VEGAS DEL ORO	9%	10/1	8/1	0	····
R5	10	ISLAND SPLASH	8%	12/1	12/1	+2	1···
R5	1	CHACHACHA CHING	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R5	6	THIRSTY ETERNA	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R5	9	SHE'S MY STAR	5%	20/1	20/1	+1	2···
R5	8	KOOL IT	2%	30/1	12/1	-4	3···
R61 1/16 miles turfOptional claiming $100,000Lone speed1 flag
R6	8	CANTO DELLA TERRA	24%	3/1	4/1	+8	1···
R6	7	THE WHITE LADY	19%	4/1	7/2	+1	2···
R6	4	MI CONFESION	11%	8/1	8/1	+2	3···
R6	3	RIBBONS	10%	9/1	9/2	-5	6···
R6	2	BOJACA BLESSING	9%	10/1	8/1	0	5···
R6	6	DREAMING OF ABBA	8%	11/1	5/1	-5	7···
R6	9	ROSELEE MAY	8%	11/1	15/1	+3	4···
R6	5	PURA VIDA PRINCESA	7%	15/1	8/1	-2	8▲··
R6	1	GRECIAN GODDESS	4%	25/1	12/1	-2	9···
R71 mile dirtOptional claiming $20,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pacepass
R7	2	POKERKNIGHTATVEES	32%	2/1	2/1	+5	1···
R7	4	MAJESTIC PALISADES	15%	6/1	7/2	-3	3···
R7	5	THE G M	12%	7/1	9/2	-2	4···
R7	8	JOHN METCALFE	12%	15/2	8/1	+3	2···
R7	1	CHECK'S ON THE WAY	10%	9/1	6/1	-1	5···
R7	6	STOLEN TREASURE	8%	11/1	8/1	-1	6···
R7	3	J T'S WATCH	6%	15/1	12/1	-1	7···
R7	7	CAGEY BURGLAR	5%	20/1	15/1	0	8···
R81 mile turfClaiming $25,000, non-winners of two lifetimeEven pace1 flag
R8	6	ELITE HEAT	20%	4/1	3/1	0	2···
R8	9	SUNTORY TIME	17%	5/1	6/1	+5	1···
R8	1	MOTET	15%	6/1	7/2	-3	3···
R8	2	RICH OF JOY	9%	10/1	6/1	-2	6···
R8	4	LADY OF POWER	8%	12/1	6/1	-3	8···
R8	3	ZARAFA	8%	12/1	12/1	+2	4···
R8	7	CAN'T SAY THAT	7%	12/1	12/1	+1	5···
R8	10	GREEN ZONE	7%	12/1	10/1	0	7···
R8	5	DRAGON KAT	5%	20/1	20/1	+1	9···
R8	8	SAARISELKA	4%	20/1	15/1	-1	10···

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 8 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet

R1Chalk5Sendit Mo23%7/28/5

How it sets up

dirtContested3 of 7 want the lead

Go forward156

Pace helps37

The board and our number agree in a $16,000 claimer. Three of them want the lead. We make the favourite, #5 SENDIT MO, 23% against the board's 31%, shorter than we think it should be. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	SENDIT MO	23%	7/2	8/5
3	UECKER	16%	5/1	4/1
1	JOKER WENT WILD	15%	11/2	7/2
7	JALISCO	14%	6/1	6/1
6	STANFORD DROPOUT	13%	7/1	8/1
4	ORIGINAL ONE	10%	9/1	8/1
2	CRUCIBLE	9%	10/1	15/1

R3Lean3Please Behave20%4/14/1

How it sets up

dirtEven pace9 going

Our top-rated horse in a $50,000 maiden claimer. We make the top one 20% against the board's 16%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 4 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	PLEASE BEHAVE	20%	4/1	4/1
9	SHEMAKESMEMAD	16%	5/1	3/1
4	BLONDYS FORZA	13%	13/2	5/1
8	TAM'S SWISS MISS	13%	13/2	5/1
5	HARKETTE	11%	8/1	6/1
7	CLUBHOUSE ROSE	9%	10/1	8/1
2	ZAYDA AT THE SPA	6%	15/1	12/1
6	OBHAYVE	6%	15/1	12/1
1	VAHEVALA	5%	20/1	15/1

R4Scramble5Lady Maryann18%9/24/1

How it sets up

turfContested4 of 8 want the lead

Go forward268

Pace helps35

An open heat. The top two are effectively level on our numbers. Four horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	LADY MARYANN	18%	9/2	4/1
1	JENNYS WINE GIRL	18%	9/2	7/2
7	UNBINDING	17%	5/1	3/1
6	WATCH OVER US	12%	15/2	6/1
4	FAMOUS FORZA	11%	8/1	6/1
2	BUTTERFLY BEACH	9%	10/1	8/1
3	EGYPTIAN MISTRESS	9%	10/1	10/1
8	SURFIN THE COAST	6%	15/1	12/1

R5Chalk5Dont Short Ur Self20%4/13/1

How it sets up

dirtEven pace10 going

The board and our number agree in a $50,000 maiden claimer. A full field of ten.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	DONT SHORT UR SELF	20%	4/1	3/1
7	IMNOSURETHING	18%	9/2	7/2
4	QUICK UP	13%	13/2	5/1
3	BREAKAWAY BABE	13%	7/1	5/1
2	VEGAS DEL ORO	9%	10/1	8/1
10	ISLAND SPLASH	8%	12/1	12/1
1	CHACHACHA CHING	6%	15/1	12/1
6	THIRSTY ETERNA	6%	15/1	12/1
9	SHE'S MY STAR	5%	20/1	20/1
8	KOOL IT	2%	30/1	12/1

R7Lean2Pokerknightatvees32%2/12/1

How it sets up

dirtEven pace8 going

Our top-rated horse in a $20,000 allowance optional claimer. We make the top one 32% against the board's 27%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 5 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	POKERKNIGHTATVEES	32%	2/1	2/1
4	MAJESTIC PALISADES	15%	6/1	7/2
5	THE G M	12%	7/1	9/2
8	JOHN METCALFE	12%	15/2	8/1
1	CHECK'S ON THE WAY	10%	9/1	6/1
6	STOLEN TREASURE	8%	11/1	8/1
3	J T'S WATCH	6%	15/1	12/1
7	CAGEY BURGLAR	5%	20/1	15/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 107bc986 · takeout (DMR) win 15.43% / exacta 22.68% · card SHA-256 5d18e4b2450b… · Scratches as of 4:00 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

This card was produced under the methodology version identified at publication. Detailed implementation parameters are proprietary and are no longer displayed. The original selections, probabilities, prices, timestamps, grading and integrity evidence are unchanged, and the locked card file below is the original. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash	`3c06ef8b292491380dee47bb9687754881ce6d98c19361d6f071402273131384`
Original recorded lock hash	`5d18e4b2450bfe332163ca53dce2c5ec89df652f23efdf8de0d62fb5fcedcb69`
OpenTimestamps status	Bitcoin confirmed · block 959238

This card was generated on Windows. Its original lock hash was calculated from CRLF-formatted bytes before Git stored the same JSON with LF line endings. The selections and JSON values are unchanged. Use the downloadable artifact hash above to verify the public file. Full correction record · chc-2026-07-23-dmr-card-01.