Saratoga, Sun Jul 19, 2026

10 races · published 11:52 AM ET · card locked

4 value plays today · 6 races we're passing

StatusCompleted · races run

First post1:10 PM ET

Scratch checkAs of 11:52 AM ET

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Sun Jul 19, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day

5HOT GOSSIP

Race 4 · 1 mile dirt

21%model7/2fair8/1boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+13 pts over the board), the price should hold, so this is the fullest version of the edge. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Today at SaratogaSunny, 79°F, wind 10 mph · rain 0%, no off-track flagNWS forecast

Flags 4 of 10 races

New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.

Today’s plays4 flags

RaceHorseModelBoardEdge

R14American Grant14%12/1+8 pts R22Emergency Nine17%8/1+8 pts R45Hot Gossip21%8/1+13 pts R512Pelican Pride16%8/1+7 pts

Price should hold All 4 flags today. A long board price the late money tends to leave alone, so you should still get a strong number at post, the fullest version of the edge.

Race 1 · 1 1/8 miles · dirt · Claiming $20,000, non-winners of three lifetimeFlag

4AMERICAN GRANT

Model

Fair

Board

14%

6/1

12/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price should hold

Ranks #2 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace8 going

No one horse is entitled to the lead. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

A price play to start Saratoga. We give American Grant about a 14% chance in the mile-and-an-eighth dirt claimer — not the likeliest winner, but the board has it longer than we do, and an eight-point gap on a route horse this price is where a payout lives. Second on our figures, near enough the top that the odds look generous.

Fair is 6/1; the number to demand is 7/1 or better. It's a long price the crowd tends to leave alone, so it should still be there at post — a swing, one unit, no chasing it short.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
7	CURVINO	24%	3/1	9/5
6	STURDY	23%	7/2	7/5
4	AMERICAN GRANT ◀	14%	6/1	12/1
3	MCDIESEL	10%	9/1	6/1
1	THORSNESS	9%	10/1	8/1
2	AIRBORNE ELITE	9%	10/1	12/1
5	NATURAL HUNK	7%	15/1	15/1
8	NOTFANUTIN	5%	20/1	30/1

Race 2 · 5 1/2 furlongs · turf · Maiden claiming $50,000Flag

2EMERGENCY NINE

Model

Fair

Board

17%

5/1

8/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price should hold

Ranks #2 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested3 of 12 want the lead

Go forward491112

Pace helps210

Three of the 12 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five and a half furlongs on turf in a $50,000 maiden claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

A closer with the pace on its side. Emergency Nine is a maiden in the five-and-a-half turf, and the race sets up contested — three early types who'll be busy with each other — while this one runs late. We raised its number for that shape. Our 17% sits eight points over the board.

Fair 5/1, play 11/2 or better. It's a long enough price that the money should leave it alone into post, so the value ought to survive. The risk is the plain one for a closer: if the speed doesn't cook and someone steals an easy lead, it's running for second. A unit at the price.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
12	WAITIN'ONAPROMISE	21%	4/1	3/1
2	EMERGENCY NINE ◀	17%	5/1	8/1
10	TICKET TO RIDE	14%	13/2	7/2
5	RAYNHAM HALL	13%	13/2	8/1
9	FOREVER TO GO	8%	11/1	6/1
8	ALL BRIGHT	7%	12/1	10/1
1	IWOKEUPLIKETHIS	6%	15/1	12/1
3	MONTEVERTINE	5%	20/1	15/1
11	MIZTY FOG	4%	25/1	15/1
6	DREAMY GIRL	3%	30/1	15/1
4	FROGHOLLOWSUMMER	3%	30/1	15/1
7	BATTLE RIFLE	1%	99/1	50/1

Race 4 · 1 mile · dirt · Optional claiming $75,000Flag

5HOT GOSSIP

Model

Fair

Board

21%

7/2

8/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price should hold

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace8 going

Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

The widest gap on either card today, and the one to circle. We make Hot Gossip a 21% chance in the one-mile dirt allowance-claimer — twelve and a half points clear of the board — and it's clean: tops our figures, even pace, nothing loose on the lead to complicate it. When our number is this far off the market on a horse we rate best in the race, that's the whole reason to be here.

Fair 7/2, play 4/1 or better. And the durability read likes it — a price the crowd tends to leave alone, so it should still be live at post. Our best number of the day.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	HOT GOSSIP ◀	21%	7/2	8/1
2	SPITFIRE	18%	9/2	2/1
8	SPARKLING MAMA	15%	11/2	5/1
4	KILLA SALLY	15%	6/1	3/1
6	UBIQUE	12%	7/1	5/1
1	CELESTIAL BODY	7%	12/1	15/1
7	UR DESIRE	6%	15/1	8/1
3	QUALITY OF ESSENCE	4%	20/1	12/1

Race 5 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Maiden special weightFlag

12PELICAN PRIDE

Model

Fair

Board

16%

11/2

8/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price should hold

Ranks #2 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace12 going

No runner here is entitled to the lead on the early figures. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

A longshot to close our Saratoga card. We give Pelican Pride about a 16% chance in the mile-and-a-sixteenth turf maiden, a seven-point edge on a horse the board has written longer. It sits second on our figures, close enough to the top that the price reads generous.

Fair 11/2, play 6/1 or better. A maiden route, so the form is thin and a green trip is the real risk — but it's a long price that should hold to post, so a unit at the number is worth the swing.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	FACTORY SETTING	22%	7/2	3/1
12	PELICAN PRIDE ◀	16%	11/2	8/1
3	AMAZING GRACER	14%	13/2	4/1
7	OKAY ANNIE	12%	15/2	5/1
6	NO TIDE	8%	12/1	10/1
10	GANDERELLA	6%	15/1	12/1
9	RIZZ	5%	15/1	8/1
2	LITTLE FINCH	5%	20/1	15/1
8	SARATOGA DAISY	5%	20/1	12/1
11	AXIS POINT	4%	25/1	20/1
4	ADROIT	3%	30/1	30/1
5	MAGIC IN MY EYES	1%	50/1	20/1

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board

Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R	#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Edge	Why
R11 1/8 miles dirtClaiming $20,000, non-winners of three lifetimeEven pace1 flag
R1	7	CURVINO	24%	3/1	9/5	-4	1···
R1	6	STURDY	23%	7/2	7/5	-10	3···
R1	4	AMERICAN GRANT	14%	6/1	12/1	+8	2···
R1	3	MCDIESEL	10%	9/1	6/1	-1	5···
R1	1	THORSNESS	9%	10/1	8/1	0	6···
R1	2	AIRBORNE ELITE	9%	10/1	12/1	+3	4···
R1	5	NATURAL HUNK	7%	15/1	15/1	+2	7···
R1	8	NOTFANUTIN	5%	20/1	30/1	+2	8···
R25 1/2 furlongs turfMaiden claiming $50,000Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag
R2	12	WAITIN'ONAPROMISE	21%	4/1	3/1	+1	1▼··
R2	2	EMERGENCY NINE	17%	5/1	8/1	+8	2▲··
R2	10	TICKET TO RIDE	14%	13/2	7/2	-4	4▲··
R2	5	RAYNHAM HALL	13%	13/2	8/1	+5	3···
R2	9	FOREVER TO GO	8%	11/1	6/1	-3	5▼··
R2	8	ALL BRIGHT	7%	12/1	10/1	0	····
R2	1	IWOKEUPLIKETHIS	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R2	3	MONTEVERTINE	5%	20/1	15/1	0	····
R2	11	MIZTY FOG	4%	25/1	15/1	-1	6▼··
R2	6	DREAMY GIRL	3%	30/1	15/1	-2	8···
R2	4	FROGHOLLOWSUMMER	3%	30/1	15/1	-2	7▼··
R2	7	BATTLE RIFLE	1%	99/1	50/1	-1	9···
R31 mile dirtMaiden claiming $20,000Even pacepass
R3	1	BARGAIN PURCHASE	18%	9/2	3/1	-2	1···
R3	8	SFUMATO	17%	5/1	5/2	-5	4···
R3	5	MR R T	14%	6/1	5/1	+1	2···
R3	10	TRAIL BLAZE	13%	13/2	8/1	+5	3···
R3	6	INHERENT PROMISE	9%	10/1	8/1	0	6···
R3	7	BIG BROOKLYN	8%	12/1	15/1	+3	5···
R3	2	BABY MEANIE	7%	12/1	10/1	0	8···
R3	3	BOOTSY'S A RASCAL	7%	15/1	15/1	+2	7···
R3	4	START THE DAY	5%	20/1	8/1	-3	9···
R3	9	YAHEARMENOW	2%	50/1	30/1	0	····
R41 mile dirtOptional claiming $75,000Even pace1 flag
R4	5	HOT GOSSIP	21%	7/2	8/1	+13	1···
R4	2	SPITFIRE	18%	9/2	2/1	-8	3···
R4	8	SPARKLING MAMA	15%	11/2	5/1	+2	2···
R4	4	KILLA SALLY	15%	6/1	3/1	-5	4···
R4	6	UBIQUE	12%	7/1	5/1	-1	5···
R4	1	CELESTIAL BODY	7%	12/1	15/1	+3	6···
R4	7	UR DESIRE	6%	15/1	8/1	-2	7···
R4	3	QUALITY OF ESSENCE	4%	20/1	12/1	-2	8···
R51 1/16 miles turfMaiden special weightEven pace1 flag
R5	1	FACTORY SETTING	22%	7/2	3/1	+2	1···
R5	12	PELICAN PRIDE	16%	11/2	8/1	+7	2···
R5	3	AMAZING GRACER	14%	13/2	4/1	-2	3···
R5	7	OKAY ANNIE	12%	15/2	5/1	-1	4···
R5	6	NO TIDE	8%	12/1	10/1	+1	5···
R5	10	GANDERELLA	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R5	9	RIZZ	5%	15/1	8/1	-3	10···
R5	2	LITTLE FINCH	5%	20/1	15/1	0	6···
R5	8	SARATOGA DAISY	5%	20/1	12/1	-2	7···
R5	11	AXIS POINT	4%	25/1	20/1	0	9···
R5	4	ADROIT	3%	30/1	30/1	+1	8···
R5	5	MAGIC IN MY EYES	1%	50/1	20/1	-2	11···
R65 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R6	6	BRAUMS RUN	21%	4/1	4/1	+5	1···
R6	7	CRYPTO KING	20%	4/1	3/1	0	····
R6	4	GEORGE ST.	18%	9/2	7/2	+1	····
R6	8	TONJA'S TREASURE	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R6	1	ED CHARLES	9%	10/1	8/1	0	····
R6	9	TUTTO A POSTO	5%	20/1	15/1	0	····
R6	10	COVERED OPTION	5%	20/1	15/1	0	····
R6	3	BET BOLD	4%	20/1	12/1	-2	2···
R6	2	VAPOR TRAIL	4%	25/1	12/1	-2	3···
R6	5	DIAMOND JUAN	4%	30/1	15/1	-1	4···
R71 3/8 miles turfOptional claiming $80,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pacepass
R7	7	VRONTI	22%	7/2	5/2	0	2···
R7	8	SOL D'ORO	19%	4/1	5/1	+6	1···
R7	3	NATIONAL ARCHIVE	14%	13/2	9/2	0	3···
R7	1	SILVOLOGY	11%	8/1	5/1	-2	6···
R7	5	SNIPSNIPPITYSNIP	11%	8/1	8/1	+2	4···
R7	2	AGIA MARINA	11%	8/1	6/1	0	5···
R7	6	DON'T JINX IT	9%	11/1	9/2	-6	7···
R7	4	SAILAWAY	4%	25/1	20/1	0	8···
R81 mile dirtAllowance $120,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R8	1	GEORGIA MAGIC	26%	3/1	3/1	+6	1▼··
R8	2	PLAYA DEL MAR	25%	3/1	2/1	-1	2▼··
R8	4	IRON DOME	19%	4/1	9/5	-8	3▲··
R8	3	ENVISION	10%	9/1	8/1	+2	5···
R8	5	THRILLA	10%	9/1	10/1	+3	4···
R8	7	FOREVER MAN	5%	20/1	15/1	0	6···
R8	6	FREDDIE B	4%	25/1	12/1	-2	7···
R95 1/2 furlongs turfGrade 3 stakesEven pacepass
R9	8	CY FAIR	33%	2/1	9/5	+5	1···
R9	10	JOHNNY'S RED STORM	15%	6/1	5/1	+2	2···
R9	9	STRADALE	10%	9/1	12/1	+4	3···
R9	4	INTRICATE SPIRIT	9%	11/1	12/1	+3	4···
R9	3	THROCKMORTON	6%	15/1	10/1	-1	5···
R9	1	EWING	6%	15/1	6/1	-5	8···
R9	7	LONGSHOREMAN	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	7···
R9	12	BOBROVSKY	4%	20/1	10/1	-3	9···
R9	6	UNWRITTEN RULE	4%	25/1	12/1	-2	11···
R9	5	MONSTER	4%	25/1	20/1	0	6···
R9	2	LEARNTODISCOVER	3%	30/1	20/1	-1	10···
R9	11	ROCKIES BALBOA	2%	50/1	30/1	0	12···
R101 1/16 miles turfClaiming $35,000, non-winners of two lifetimeEven pacepass
R10	5	ARTISTIC SUCCESS	26%	3/1	5/2	+4	1···
R10	3	MERMAID	17%	5/1	4/1	+2	2···
R10	1	TWIRLY	12%	15/2	6/1	+1	3···
R10	2	ROAGNA	12%	15/2	7/2	-5	4···
R10	6	LESLIE'S STAR	8%	11/1	8/1	0	5···
R10	10	GREYJOY	7%	12/1	10/1	0	6···
R10	7	BOSSY DISH	6%	15/1	15/1	+1	7···
R10	9	ROSEBERNS DREAM	5%	20/1	20/1	+1	8···
R10	8	DOPPIO ESPRESSO	4%	25/1	12/1	-2	10···
R10	4	LUCKFORYOU	3%	30/1	20/1	0	9···

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 10 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet

R3Scramble1Bargain Purchase18%9/23/1

How it sets up

dirtEven pace10 going

A full field of ten. Nothing separates the top two by more than 0.8 points. We make the top one 18% against the board's 19%. We make the favourite, #8 SFUMATO, 17% against the board's 22%, shorter than we think it should be. Our own top-rated is #1 BARGAIN PURCHASE. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	BARGAIN PURCHASE	18%	9/2	3/1
8	SFUMATO	17%	5/1	5/2
5	MR R T	14%	6/1	5/1
10	TRAIL BLAZE	13%	13/2	8/1
6	INHERENT PROMISE	9%	10/1	8/1
7	BIG BROOKLYN	8%	12/1	15/1
2	BABY MEANIE	7%	12/1	10/1
3	BOOTSY'S A RASCAL	7%	15/1	15/1
4	START THE DAY	5%	20/1	8/1
9	YAHEARMENOW	2%	50/1	30/1

R6Lean6Braums Run21%4/14/1

How it sets up

dirtEven pace10 going

Our top-rated horse in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 21% against the board's 16%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 5 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	BRAUMS RUN	21%	4/1	4/1
7	CRYPTO KING	20%	4/1	3/1
4	GEORGE ST.	18%	9/2	7/2
8	TONJA'S TREASURE	11%	8/1	6/1
1	ED CHARLES	9%	10/1	8/1
9	TUTTO A POSTO	5%	20/1	15/1
10	COVERED OPTION	5%	20/1	15/1
3	BET BOLD	4%	20/1	12/1
2	VAPOR TRAIL	4%	25/1	12/1
5	DIAMOND JUAN	4%	30/1	15/1

R7Chalk7Vronti22%7/25/2

How it sets up

turfEven pace8 going

The board and our number agree in a $80,000 allowance optional claimer. We make the top one 22% against the board's 22%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
7	VRONTI	22%	7/2	5/2
8	SOL D'ORO	19%	4/1	5/1
3	NATIONAL ARCHIVE	14%	13/2	9/2
1	SILVOLOGY	11%	8/1	5/1
5	SNIPSNIPPITYSNIP	11%	8/1	8/1
2	AGIA MARINA	11%	8/1	6/1
6	DON'T JINX IT	9%	11/1	9/2
4	SAILAWAY	4%	25/1	20/1

R8Lean1Georgia Magic26%3/13/1

How it sets up

dirtContested3 of 7 want the lead

Go forward12

Pace helps4

Our top-rated horse in an allowance. Three of them want the lead. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 6 points. We make the favourite, #4 IRON DOME, 19% against the board's 28%, shorter than we think it should be. Our own top-rated is #1 GEORGIA MAGIC. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	GEORGIA MAGIC	26%	3/1	3/1
2	PLAYA DEL MAR	25%	3/1	2/1
4	IRON DOME	19%	4/1	9/5
3	ENVISION	10%	9/1	8/1
5	THRILLA	10%	9/1	10/1
7	FOREVER MAN	5%	20/1	15/1
6	FREDDIE B	4%	25/1	12/1

R9Lean8Cy Fair33%2/19/5

How it sets up

turfEven pace12 going

Our top-rated horse in a Grade 3. We make the top one 33% against the board's 28%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 5 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
8	CY FAIR	33%	2/1	9/5
10	JOHNNY'S RED STORM	15%	6/1	5/1
9	STRADALE	10%	9/1	12/1
4	INTRICATE SPIRIT	9%	11/1	12/1
3	THROCKMORTON	6%	15/1	10/1
1	EWING	6%	15/1	6/1
7	LONGSHOREMAN	5%	20/1	12/1
12	BOBROVSKY	4%	20/1	10/1
6	UNWRITTEN RULE	4%	25/1	12/1
5	MONSTER	4%	25/1	20/1
2	LEARNTODISCOVER	3%	30/1	20/1
11	ROCKIES BALBOA	2%	50/1	30/1

R10Lean5Artistic Success26%3/15/2

How it sets up

turfEven pace10 going

Our top-rated horse in a $35,000 claimer. We make the top one 26% against the board's 22%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 4 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	ARTISTIC SUCCESS	26%	3/1	5/2
3	MERMAID	17%	5/1	4/1
1	TWIRLY	12%	15/2	6/1
2	ROAGNA	12%	15/2	7/2
6	LESLIE'S STAR	8%	11/1	8/1
10	GREYJOY	7%	12/1	10/1
7	BOSSY DISH	6%	15/1	15/1
9	ROSEBERNS DREAM	5%	20/1	20/1
8	DOPPIO ESPRESSO	4%	25/1	12/1
4	LUCKFORYOU	3%	30/1	20/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 14a5af5d · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 a989d8e7773e… · Scratches as of 11:52 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

This card was produced under the methodology version identified at publication. Detailed implementation parameters are proprietary and are no longer displayed. The original selections, probabilities, prices, timestamps, grading and integrity evidence are unchanged, and the locked card file below is the original. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash	`a295b82f5d0ccac7bfd635ab0cea30c50abae0cab2a6f6cff81f94eba2488136`
Original recorded lock hash	`a989d8e7773e6e837e171d752095f93aa70522b4e1f3627f96dad8f493e92486`
OpenTimestamps status	Bitcoin confirmed · block 958756

This card was generated on Windows. Its original lock hash was calculated from CRLF-formatted bytes before Git stored the same JSON with LF line endings. The selections and JSON values are unchanged. Use the downloadable artifact hash above to verify the public file. Full correction record · chc-2026-07-19-sar-card-01.