Del Mar, Sun Jul 19, 2026

11 races · published 11:53 AM ET · card locked

4 value plays today · 7 races we're passing

StatusCompleted · races run

First post2:00 PM PT

Scratch checkAs of 11:53 AM ET

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Sun Jul 19, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day

6MOTORIOUS

Race 3 · 5 furlongs turf

38%model8/5fair2/1boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+11 pts over the board), the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number, so size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Today at Del MarMostly Sunny, 75°F, wind 0 to 10 mph · rain 3%, no off-track flagNWS forecast

Flags 4 of 11 races

New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.

Today’s plays4 flags

RaceHorseModelBoardEdge

R17Freddy Five Four15%8/1+6 pts R36Motorious38%2/1+11 pts R72Fair Question15%8/1+6 pts R116Zalamo21%6/1+10 pts

Race 1 · 5 1/2 furlongs · dirt · Maiden claiming $50,000Flag

7FREDDY FIVE FOUR

Model

Fair

Board

15%

6/1

8/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price should hold A long board price the late money tends to leave alone, so you should still get a strong number at post, the fullest version of the edge.

Ranks #2 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace7 going

Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

A quiet longshot to open Del Mar. We make Freddy Five Four about a 15% chance in the five-and-a-half maiden claimer, and the board has it out past that — a six-point gap on a horse the crowd isn't paying much attention to. It sits second on our figures, close enough to the top that the price reads a step generous.

Fair is 6/1; take 13/2 or better. This is the kind of long price the late money tends to leave alone, so unlike a short favorite it may actually still be there at post. But it's a maiden claimer — keep it to a unit, no heartbreak if it comes up short.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	JETWAY	27%	5/2	5/2
5	PHAROAH'S CANDY	18%	9/2	7/2
7	FREDDY FIVE FOUR ◀	15%	6/1	8/1
2	HOWIE'S LAW	12%	15/2	3/1
1	FINIBALL	11%	8/1	6/1
6	ELUSIVE CON	11%	8/1	5/1
3	HOOSICK FALLS	7%	12/1	15/1

Race 3 · 5 furlongs · turf · Optional claiming $100,000Flag

6MOTORIOUS

Model

Fair

Board

38%

8/5

2/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested4 of 7 want the lead

Go forward35

Pace helps16

Four of the 7 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five furlongs on turf in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

The most confident number on our Del Mar card, and there's a wrinkle. We make Motorious a 38% chance in the five-furlong turf sprint — comfortably the likeliest winner we flag today — and the shape helps: four early-speed types up front, and this one comes from off it, so we pushed its figure up for the pace it gets to run at.

The catch is the price. Fair is 8/5, and a horse this live at a number this short gets bet down — our read is the value is likely gone by post, so the discipline is the whole game here. Take 9/5 or better and pass if it's shorter, which it may well be. A quality play at a fair number, not at any number.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	MOTORIOUS ◀	38%	8/5	2/1
4	SUMTER	18%	9/2	3/1
2	FLYOVER	14%	6/1	6/1
7	SORRENTO SKY	11%	8/1	5/1
5	BOOK SMART	8%	12/1	5/1
3	CALL ME CORY	6%	15/1	8/1
1	NESSO'S LASTHARRAH	5%	20/1	12/1

Race 7 · 5 furlongs · turf · Maiden special weightFlag

2FAIR QUESTION

Model

Fair

Board

15%

6/1

8/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price should hold A long board price the late money tends to leave alone, so you should still get a strong number at post, the fullest version of the edge.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested4 of 12 want the lead

Go forward121011

Pace helps412

Four of the 12 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five furlongs on turf in a maiden special weight should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

A speed angle we're a little cautious on. Fair Question tops our figures in the five-furlong turf maiden, but it wants the lead and it's not alone — four in here have early speed, so we docked its number for the fight up front. Even docked, our 15% clears the board by six points.

Fair 6/1, play 13/2 or better. The long price is the saving grace: it's not a horse the crowd will hammer, so the number should hold to post even if the pace gets messy. One unit, eyes open on the speed duel.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
10	POSITIVE TIMES	18%	9/2	3/1
4	LUCKY N SMART	16%	5/1	7/2
2	FAIR QUESTION ◀	15%	6/1	8/1
6	SIRNAMI	11%	8/1	6/1
12	STILL BULLETPROOF	10%	10/1	12/1
1	PROOF HE GOES	9%	10/1	8/1
3	MENDEZLEBANK	6%	15/1	12/1
7	CHAOTIC NEUTRAL	6%	15/1	12/1
8	TIGER SMILING	5%	20/1	12/1
5	VICTORIA'S ROCKET	3%	30/1	12/1
9	OM GROWN TOMATOES	1%	50/1	30/1
11	SCORCHING HOT	1%	99/1	30/1

Race 11 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Claiming $25,000Flag

6ZALAMO

Model

Fair

Board

21%

7/2

6/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace12 going

No one horse is entitled to the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

Our widest gap on the Del Mar card. We make Zalamo a 21% shot in the mile-and-a-sixteenth turf claimer, ten points clear of where the board has it, and it tops our figures with an honest even-pace setup — nobody loose on the lead to steal it.

Fair 7/2, play 4/1 or better. This one's a toss-up on price: at a 6/1 morning line it could hold, or the money could find it and bring it in. Watch the board near post — it's a play only if it's still 4/1 or better when you get there.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	ZALAMO ◀	21%	7/2	6/1
5	ENTERDADRAGON	13%	13/2	6/1
9	PHOSPHORESCENCE	11%	15/2	3/1
10	CHARGE FOR GOLD	10%	9/1	5/1
4	GOLD FOOT	8%	11/1	12/1
11	CALM SEA	7%	12/1	12/1
7	AH JEEZ	7%	15/1	8/1
1	EMPIRE'S CLASSIC	5%	15/1	20/1
13	GEOMETRY	5%	20/1	15/1
3	ONE OF THESE DAYS	4%	20/1	12/1
8	JIMMY BLUE JEANS	4%	25/1	12/1
12	DON'T SWEAR DAVE	3%	30/1	20/1

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board

Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R	#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Edge	Why
R15 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden claiming $50,000Even pace1 flag
R1	4	JETWAY	27%	5/2	5/2	+4	1···
R1	5	PHAROAH'S CANDY	18%	9/2	7/2	0	····
R1	7	FREDDY FIVE FOUR	15%	6/1	8/1	+6	2···
R1	2	HOWIE'S LAW	12%	15/2	3/1	-8	5···
R1	1	FINIBALL	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R1	6	ELUSIVE CON	11%	8/1	5/1	-3	3···
R1	3	HOOSICK FALLS	7%	12/1	15/1	+2	4···
R25 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R2	5	PHONE BOOTH	23%	7/2	5/2	0	····
R2	1	GOODTIMESNTANLINES	16%	5/1	4/1	0	····
R2	3	SOUTHWEST SUN	13%	13/2	5/1	0	····
R2	7	SCAM ALERT	13%	7/1	5/1	0	1···
R2	8	LITTLE KING	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R2	2	NO LIMIT	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R2	6	SMOKE RIDER	9%	10/1	12/1	+3	2···
R2	4	TUDDY	3%	30/1	12/1	-3	3···
R35 furlongs turfOptional claiming $100,000Contested pace likely (4 early-speed types)1 flag
R3	6	MOTORIOUS	38%	8/5	2/1	+11	1▲··
R3	4	SUMTER	18%	9/2	3/1	-2	2···
R3	2	FLYOVER	14%	6/1	6/1	+3	3···
R3	7	SORRENTO SKY	11%	8/1	5/1	-2	4···
R3	5	BOOK SMART	8%	12/1	5/1	-6	6▼··
R3	3	CALL ME CORY	6%	15/1	8/1	-3	5▼··
R3	1	NESSO'S LASTHARRAH	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	7▲··
R41 mile dirtMaiden claiming $16,000Even pacepass
R4	5	ATTACK NOW	15%	11/2	7/2	-3	5···
R4	7	CHE	14%	6/1	4/1	-2	4···
R4	4	KIKI RIDE	14%	6/1	5/1	+1	1···
R4	8	CANO FOR THE WIN	13%	7/1	6/1	+1	3···
R4	10	KING OF SUCCESS	12%	7/1	8/1	+3	2···
R4	9	STAGE RUN	9%	10/1	8/1	+1	6···
R4	3	DANE THE GREAT	9%	10/1	8/1	0	7···
R4	1	DISILLUSIONED	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R4	2	NASH FOR CASH	4%	25/1	20/1	0	8···
R4	6	BAAL	3%	30/1	15/1	-2	9···
R51 mile turfOptional claiming $80,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pacepass
R5	3	TIZ ALL THAT	19%	4/1	3/1	-1	1···
R5	2	SAVAGE WARDEN	17%	5/1	7/2	-1	2···
R5	1	SAMMY DAVIS	14%	13/2	5/1	0	4···
R5	4	TRIBALISM	13%	13/2	8/1	+5	3···
R5	8	CARO BUONO	12%	7/1	6/1	+1	5···
R5	5	ZEUS'S ECHO	11%	8/1	5/1	-3	6···
R5	7	MELISMATIC	9%	10/1	8/1	0	7···
R5	6	GAIRLOCH	5%	20/1	12/1	-2	8···
R66 1/2 furlongs dirtClaiming $12,500, non-winners of two lifetimeContested pace likely (6 early-speed types)pass
R6	1	NEXT TRICK	16%	5/1	6/1	+5	1▲··
R6	10	BENEFICIAL	14%	6/1	7/2	-3	2▼··
R6	2	DESERT KAT	11%	8/1	8/1	+2	3▲··
R6	9	HANKERING	11%	8/1	4/1	-5	4▼··
R6	6	HARBOR CODE	9%	10/1	5/1	-4	5▼··
R6	8	MEEKING	8%	12/1	8/1	-1	9▲··
R6	7	AMIGO G A	7%	15/1	20/1	+3	7···
R6	5	TYPHOON TOMMY	7%	15/1	8/1	-2	8▼··
R6	4	ROCKABILLY REBAL	6%	15/1	30/1	+4	6···
R6	3	MACHO MAN	6%	15/1	12/1	-1	11···
R6	11	AUDIBLE SILENCE	5%	20/1	20/1	+1	10···
R75 furlongs turfMaiden special weightContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)1 flag
R7	10	POSITIVE TIMES	18%	9/2	3/1	-2	2▼··
R7	4	LUCKY N SMART	16%	5/1	7/2	-1	3▲··
R7	2	FAIR QUESTION	15%	6/1	8/1	+6	1▼··
R7	6	SIRNAMI	11%	8/1	6/1	0	4···
R7	12	STILL BULLETPROOF	10%	10/1	12/1	+4	6▲··
R7	1	PROOF HE GOES	9%	10/1	8/1	0	5▼··
R7	3	MENDEZLEBANK	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R7	7	CHAOTIC NEUTRAL	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R7	8	TIGER SMILING	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	7···
R7	5	VICTORIA'S ROCKET	3%	30/1	12/1	-3	8···
R7	9	OM GROWN TOMATOES	1%	50/1	30/1	-1	9···
R7	11	SCORCHING HOT	1%	99/1	30/1	-2	10▼··
R85 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R8	2	GABRIEL'S GIFT	17%	5/1	7/2	0	····
R8	6	HERE ON BUSINESS	13%	13/2	5/1	0	1···
R8	8	FORD FRENZY	11%	15/2	6/1	0	····
R8	11	DELANEYS DREAMER	9%	10/1	8/1	0	2···
R8	4	LITTLE JUSTIN	9%	11/1	8/1	0	····
R8	1	TALL FOREST	8%	11/1	8/1	0	····
R8	10	CARDBOARD TOMMY	7%	12/1	10/1	0	····
R8	12	ONE MORE ZINGER	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R8	5	CORNEALEUSTHEGREAT	6%	15/1	12/1	0	3···
R8	7	QUALITY GOLD	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	5···
R8	3	SEAVER WAY	4%	20/1	20/1	+1	4···
R8	9	TIGER TO YOU	4%	25/1	20/1	0	6···
R91 mile turfStakes, $100,000 purseEven pacepass
R9	5	KING OF GOSFORD	20%	4/1	5/2	-3	2···
R9	1	FREEDOM'S NOT FREE	19%	9/2	5/1	+5	1···
R9	8	FIRST PEACE	14%	6/1	4/1	-2	4···
R9	2	ATITLAN	14%	13/2	6/1	+2	3···
R9	6	MI HERMANO RAMON	9%	10/1	5/1	-4	6···
R9	9	AMERICAN HOPE	7%	12/1	12/1	+1	5···
R9	4	ARTISLAS	6%	15/1	12/1	0	7···
R9	3	TWIRLING POINT	6%	15/1	12/1	0	8···
R9	7	CAPTAIN CHOOCHIES	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	9···
R107 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $50,000Contested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass
R10	5	LETMEIN	17%	5/1	4/1	+1	2▲··
R10	6	CRUISIN FOR CALI	17%	5/1	5/2	-6	5▲··
R10	8	HERE'S SOME MORE	13%	13/2	8/1	+4	1···
R10	4	PALMER BEACH	12%	15/2	8/1	+3	3···
R10	1	GOT'M COT'M	11%	8/1	8/1	+2	6▲··
R10	7	CHARLIE FOXTROT	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	4▼··
R10	3	CHAPTER ONE	10%	9/1	7/2	-8	7▼··
R10	2	NEED MO DIAMONDS	5%	20/1	20/1	+1	8▼··
R10	9	JOHNLINO	5%	20/1	20/1	+1	9···
R111 1/16 miles turfClaiming $25,000Even pace1 flag
R11	6	ZALAMO	21%	7/2	6/1	+10	1···
R11	5	ENTERDADRAGON	13%	13/2	6/1	+2	2···
R11	9	PHOSPHORESCENCE	11%	15/2	3/1	-8	6···
R11	10	CHARGE FOR GOLD	10%	9/1	5/1	-3	4···
R11	4	GOLD FOOT	8%	11/1	12/1	+2	3···
R11	11	CALM SEA	7%	12/1	12/1	+1	5···
R11	7	AH JEEZ	7%	15/1	8/1	-2	8···
R11	1	EMPIRE'S CLASSIC	5%	15/1	20/1	+2	7···
R11	13	GEOMETRY	5%	20/1	15/1	0	9···
R11	3	ONE OF THESE DAYS	4%	20/1	12/1	-2	10···
R11	8	JIMMY BLUE JEANS	4%	25/1	12/1	-2	11···
R11	12	DON'T SWEAR DAVE	3%	30/1	20/1	-1	12···

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 11 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet

R2Chalk5Phone Booth23%7/25/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pace8 going

The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 23% against the board's 23%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	PHONE BOOTH	23%	7/2	5/2
1	GOODTIMESNTANLINES	16%	5/1	4/1
3	SOUTHWEST SUN	13%	13/2	5/1
7	SCAM ALERT	13%	7/1	5/1
8	LITTLE KING	11%	8/1	6/1
2	NO LIMIT	11%	8/1	6/1
6	SMOKE RIDER	9%	10/1	12/1
4	TUDDY	3%	30/1	12/1

R4Scramble5Attack Now15%11/27/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pace10 going

A full field of ten. Nothing separates the top two by more than 0.5 points. We make the top one 15% against the board's 18%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	ATTACK NOW	15%	11/2	7/2
7	CHE	14%	6/1	4/1
4	KIKI RIDE	14%	6/1	5/1
8	CANO FOR THE WIN	13%	7/1	6/1
10	KING OF SUCCESS	12%	7/1	8/1
9	STAGE RUN	9%	10/1	8/1
3	DANE THE GREAT	9%	10/1	8/1
1	DISILLUSIONED	6%	15/1	12/1
2	NASH FOR CASH	4%	25/1	20/1
6	BAAL	3%	30/1	15/1

R5Scramble3Tiz All That19%4/13/1

How it sets up

turfEven pace8 going

An open heat. Nothing separates the top two by more than 2.0 points. We make the top one 19% against the board's 20%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	TIZ ALL THAT	19%	4/1	3/1
2	SAVAGE WARDEN	17%	5/1	7/2
1	SAMMY DAVIS	14%	13/2	5/1
4	TRIBALISM	13%	13/2	8/1
8	CARO BUONO	12%	7/1	6/1
5	ZEUS'S ECHO	11%	8/1	5/1
7	MELISMATIC	9%	10/1	8/1
6	GAIRLOCH	5%	20/1	12/1

R6Lean1Next Trick16%5/16/1

How it sets up

dirtContested6 of 11 want the lead

Go forward56910

Pace helps128

Our top-rated horse in a $12,500 claimer. Six horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 5 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	NEXT TRICK	16%	5/1	6/1
10	BENEFICIAL	14%	6/1	7/2
2	DESERT KAT	11%	8/1	8/1
9	HANKERING	11%	8/1	4/1
6	HARBOR CODE	9%	10/1	5/1
8	MEEKING	8%	12/1	8/1
7	AMIGO G A	7%	15/1	20/1
5	TYPHOON TOMMY	7%	15/1	8/1
4	ROCKABILLY REBAL	6%	15/1	30/1
3	MACHO MAN	6%	15/1	12/1
11	AUDIBLE SILENCE	5%	20/1	20/1

R8Scramble2Gabriel's Gift17%5/17/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pace12 going

A full field of twelve. Nothing separates the top two by more than 3.9 points. We make the top one 17% against the board's 17%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	GABRIEL'S GIFT	17%	5/1	7/2
6	HERE ON BUSINESS	13%	13/2	5/1
8	FORD FRENZY	11%	15/2	6/1
11	DELANEYS DREAMER	9%	10/1	8/1
4	LITTLE JUSTIN	9%	11/1	8/1
1	TALL FOREST	8%	11/1	8/1
10	CARDBOARD TOMMY	7%	12/1	10/1
12	ONE MORE ZINGER	6%	15/1	12/1
5	CORNEALEUSTHEGREAT	6%	15/1	12/1
7	QUALITY GOLD	5%	20/1	12/1
3	SEAVER WAY	4%	20/1	20/1
9	TIGER TO YOU	4%	25/1	20/1

R9Scramble5King Of Gosford20%4/15/2

How it sets up

turfEven pace9 going

An open heat. Nothing separates the top two by more than 1.1 points. We make the top one 20% against the board's 22%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	KING OF GOSFORD	20%	4/1	5/2
1	FREEDOM'S NOT FREE	19%	9/2	5/1
8	FIRST PEACE	14%	6/1	4/1
2	ATITLAN	14%	13/2	6/1
6	MI HERMANO RAMON	9%	10/1	5/1
9	AMERICAN HOPE	7%	12/1	12/1
4	ARTISLAS	6%	15/1	12/1
3	TWIRLING POINT	6%	15/1	12/1
7	CAPTAIN CHOOCHIES	5%	20/1	12/1

R10Scramble5Letmein17%5/14/1

How it sets up

dirtContested4 of 9 want the lead

Go forward237

Pace helps156

An open heat. The top two are effectively level on our numbers. Four horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. We make the favourite, #6 CRUISIN FOR CALI, 17% against the board's 23%, shorter than we think it should be. Our own top-rated is #5 LETMEIN. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	LETMEIN	17%	5/1	4/1
6	CRUISIN FOR CALI	17%	5/1	5/2
8	HERE'S SOME MORE	13%	13/2	8/1
4	PALMER BEACH	12%	15/2	8/1
1	GOT'M COT'M	11%	8/1	8/1
7	CHARLIE FOXTROT	10%	9/1	8/1
3	CHAPTER ONE	10%	9/1	7/2
2	NEED MO DIAMONDS	5%	20/1	20/1
9	JOHNLINO	5%	20/1	20/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 14a5af5d · takeout (DMR) win 15.43% / exacta 22.68% · card SHA-256 4c9c5e8e4aef… · Scratches as of 11:53 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

This card was produced under the methodology version identified at publication. Detailed implementation parameters are proprietary and are no longer displayed. The original selections, probabilities, prices, timestamps, grading and integrity evidence are unchanged, and the locked card file below is the original. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash	`0a22d8979143b47d0f5c2231e1dc4d97b2f3097da2eca5e1080fb451feca36c2`
Original recorded lock hash	`4c9c5e8e4aef0d3ab99fd607a5499924eb02948aa7c5af9762732e61c6344333`
OpenTimestamps status	Bitcoin confirmed · block 958756

This card was generated on Windows. Its original lock hash was calculated from CRLF-formatted bytes before Git stored the same JSON with LF line endings. The selections and JSON values are unchanged. Use the downloadable artifact hash above to verify the public file. Full correction record · chc-2026-07-19-dmr-card-01.