Saratoga & Del Mar · 2026 Meets · Model v0-heuristic-1.4 the anti-tout
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Saratoga, Sat Jul 18, 2026

4 value plays today · 8 races we're passing
StatusCompleted · races run
First post1:10 PM ET
Scratch checkAs of 1:03 PM ET
Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Sat Jul 18, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day
8JACK AND JIM
Race 11 · 1 1/16 miles turf
30%model5/2fair3/1boardWINpaid at the close
Our biggest edge on the card today (+14 pts over the board), the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number, so size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.
Today at SaratogaSmoke, 81°F, wind 10 to 14 mph · rain 92%, off-track / soft-turf riskNWS forecast
Flags 4 of 12 races
Likely bet down All 4 flags today. A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.
Race 4 · 5 1/2 furlongs · turf · Optional claiming $80,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterFlagShare
4SHAPE NOTE
Model
Fair
Board
24%
3/1
7/2
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more3/1 break-even7/2 board
Likely bet down
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Contested4 of 9 want the lead
Go forward49
Pace helps123

Four of the 9 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five and a half furlongs on turf in a $80,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

Our figures like Shape Note best in the five-and-a-half turf, and the board has him a good bit longer than we do — a nine-point overlay. The complication is pace. He wants the lead, and he's not the only one; there are four horses in here with early speed, so we docked his number for the fight he'll have to survive up front. Even docked, he clears the board.

Call it a flag we're holding at arm's length. Fair is 3/1, and the number to demand is 7/2. If the speed up front burns each other off, a closer inherits the race and our horse is the one who paid for the argument. We'd rather be wrong cheaply than right expensively, so don't chase him short.

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
4SHAPE NOTE 24%3/17/2
2DHABAB16%11/25/1
5SPICED UP11%8/13/1
9VETTRIANO11%9/17/2
6WAR STRIDE10%9/16/1
3BITE AND STRIKE10%9/16/1
1MENTEE7%12/16/1
7ATTFIELD7%15/16/1
8FORE HARP5%15/112/1
Race 8 · 5 1/2 furlongs · turf · Grade 3 stakesFlagShare
2CY FAIR
Model
Fair
Board
38%
8/5
3/5
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more8/5 break-even3/5 board
Likely bet down
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Even pace8 going

Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

This is the most confident we get all day, and it's in the hardest spot on the card — a Grade 3. We make Cy Fair a 38% chance in the five-and-a-half turf, comfortably the likeliest winner we flag anywhere this week. Even pace, no traffic to fear, top figure. When the class goes up and the number holds this firm, we pay attention.

The rub is the usual one for a standout: the crowd sees it too. Fair is 8/5. Take 9/5 or better and pass if he's bet below it. Graded company means the field is honest — no soft spots padding the number — so this isn't a price play, it's a quality play. One to actually watch run, not just bet.

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
2CY FAIR 38%8/53/5
3SAPPHIRE BEACH18%9/25/2
8HOT CURRENCY16%11/27/5
4CADENZA9%10/18/1
7NICHE8%12/12/1
1QUIET STREET6%15/18/1
5HARK THEANGELSSING3%30/112/1
6SNOW FACE PRINCESS3%30/115/1
Race 11 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Optional claiming $45,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterFlagShare
8JACK AND JIM
Model
Fair
Board
30%
5/2
3/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more5/2 break-even3/1 board
Likely bet down
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Even pace12 going

No one horse is entitled to the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

The widest gap on either card today is right here. We make Jack and Jim a 30% shot in the mile-and-a-sixteenth turf; the board has him at odds that imply less than half of that. Fourteen points of daylight between our number and theirs, and nothing else on the day is close. He tops our figures, and the pace sets up honestly — no meltdown to fear, nobody loose and alone on the lead.

Fair is 5/2, and here you take 5/2 or better; with a gap this size we don't need to squeeze the price. A number this far off the board usually means the crowd is anchored on a line in the form we're discounting. If we've read the figures right, this is the best value we're putting up all day. One unit, and take what the tote gives you at the gate.

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
8JACK AND JIM 30%5/23/1
7IRON MAX18%9/23/1
10SMOOTH BREEZE15%6/15/2
12BEARY FUNNY6%15/19/2
4MO TRUMP5%15/110/1
11CLEAR CONSCIENCE5%15/18/1
5LEON BLUE5%20/110/1
6CONMAN4%25/18/1
9SHARED SUCCESS4%25/115/1
1EL DE LARRY3%30/120/1
2TERMINAL VELOCITY2%50/130/1
3CABLE READY2%50/115/1
Race 12 · 5 1/2 furlongs · turf · Maiden special weightFlagShare
2APERITIF
Model
Fair
Board
25%
3/1
7/2
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more3/1 break-even7/2 board
Likely bet down
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Contested4 of 9 want the lead
Go forward78
Pace helps12

Four of the 9 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five and a half furlongs on turf in a maiden special weight should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

A different read on a similar shape. Aperitif is a first-time-out-of-the-maiden type in the five-and-a-half turf, and like our fourth-race flag this one is full of early speed — but Aperitif isn't part of it. He closes. So the same pace fight that made us cautious earlier is the thing working for him here, and we raised his number for it. Tops our figures at 25%, well clear of the board.

Fair 3/1, play 7/2 or better. The risk with a closer is plain: if the speed up front doesn't cook and someone steals an easy lead, he's running for second. But four-deep speed rarely stays polite, and when it doesn't, the horse doing his best running late is exactly who you want. Worth a unit at the price.

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
2APERITIF 25%3/17/2
4RED VELVET CAKE17%5/15/2
9COMBAT MOVE17%5/17/2
8MY LIL ARMY GIRL11%8/16/1
7DAYLIGHT DREAMER10%9/15/1
3LAKE ARIEL9%10/110/1
6SHAKE EM OFF5%20/115/1
1MY FIRST DINAH4%25/130/1
5GALWAY GURL2%50/115/1
The whole card every runner, our number beside the board
Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R#HorseModelFairBoardEdgeWhy
R16 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R14POWERLINE30%5/28/50····
R17GREENWELL25%3/12/1-11···
R12THE GOOD LIFE19%4/13/10····
R15JACK'S GOLDEN GOAL11%8/16/102···
R11GOT TOUGH6%15/112/10····
R16LET EM KNOW5%20/115/10····
R13JOHNNY HOCKEY4%25/130/1+13···
R21 1/8 miles dirtClaiming $30,000Even pacepass
R24SPOILER19%9/23/1-11···
R21BERNIN HOT17%5/14/1+12···
R25REYNOLDS CHANNEL13%7/15/103···
R23MY NOBLE KNIGHT11%8/19/2-36···
R27BRAZENLY11%8/15/1-25···
R29INDY RAGS10%9/110/1+34···
R26SWEETALKINGBOURBON7%15/110/108···
R28POWER SEEKER6%15/112/107···
R22PINEAPPLE MAN6%15/115/1+19···
R37 furlongs dirtStarter allowance, $40,000 levelEven pacepass
R36THE TOY CANNON15%11/23/1-44···
R34COME FULL CIRCLE15%6/14/1-12···
R31SOLO JIM14%6/16/1+31···
R38APOLLO CODE13%13/25/103···
R33DINNER ROYALE10%9/16/1-27···
R32SEBASTIANTHE FIRST9%10/18/1+16···
R35CONSTANT CHAOS9%10/110/1+25···
R37CORVUS8%11/110/1+18···
R39STAYFROSTYMYFRIEND7%12/112/1+19···
R45 1/2 furlongs turfOptional claiming $80,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)1 flag
R44SHAPE NOTE24%3/17/2+91··
R42DHABAB16%11/25/1+52··
R45SPICED UP11%8/13/1-66···
R49VETTRIANO11%9/17/2-44··
R46WAR STRIDE10%9/16/1+13···
R43BITE AND STRIKE10%9/16/105··
R41MENTEE7%12/16/1-28··
R47ATTFIELD7%15/16/1-39···
R48FORE HARP5%15/112/107···
R51 1/8 miles turfGrade 1 stakesContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R53KATHYNMARISSA31%2/12/1+51··
R56SEGESTA19%4/13/102···
R54PORTFOLIO DURATION19%9/25/2-33···
R52CATHEDRAL11%8/16/10····
R51DYNAMIC PRICING10%9/16/1-14··
R57OZARA7%12/112/1+15··
R55FIVE G3%30/120/1-16··
R66 furlongs dirtAllowance $120,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R61TAB AT ZANZIBAR16%5/14/102···
R65DR. KAPUR15%11/25/2-73··
R66AGOO15%6/17/2-37··
R68FIVE WISHES14%6/19/201··
R64CALDO CANDY13%7/16/1+15··
R62UNBROKEN CHAIN10%9/112/1+44···
R67OIL CAPITAL10%9/110/1+36···
R63ROCK MUSIC6%15/112/108··
R76 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R71EFFUSIVE22%7/25/20····
R76CRUISING AGAIN14%6/19/20····
R77ELEVATED13%13/25/10····
R72ENERGY FLOWS12%7/16/1+11···
R79BUSINESS MATH11%8/16/10····
R73MEL WENT HOME8%12/18/1-12···
R75FIFTH AND CHESTNUT7%12/110/10····
R74HAVE HOPE6%15/112/10····
R78KEY COLONY BEACH6%15/112/10····
R85 1/2 furlongs turfGrade 3 stakesEven pace1 flag
R82CY FAIR38%8/53/5+71···
R83SAPPHIRE BEACH18%9/25/2+32···
R88HOT CURRENCY16%11/27/5-53···
R84CADENZA9%10/18/1+44···
R87NICHE8%12/12/1-97···
R81QUIET STREET6%15/18/105···
R85HARK THEANGELSSING3%30/112/106···
R86SNOW FACE PRINCESS3%30/115/108···
R97 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R91CRITERIA16%11/25/1+31···
R95MO THE MERRIER13%13/28/1+52···
R99GADGET PLAY13%7/17/2-54···
R910NOBLE EDITION12%15/29/2-23···
R93STIMULATE10%9/14/1-69···
R96STIRRING WORDS9%10/18/105···
R94DARK ASSAULT8%12/110/1+17···
R97OVECHKIN7%15/120/1+36···
R92SIDEARM7%15/115/1+28···
R98IZE A RUNNER6%15/112/10····
R101 mile dirtOptional claiming $45,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pacepass
R103ANNEXPERIENCE27%5/28/5-41···
R108THREE B'S17%5/14/1+12···
R105WHITTINGTON PARK15%6/13/1-53···
R107ELYSIAN MEADOWS11%8/16/1-15···
R101KING'S LEAP9%10/115/1+44···
R102BERNING BEAUTY9%10/110/1+26···
R104DEAR CHAIRMAN7%12/115/1+27···
R106JACKSON HEIGHTS6%15/112/108···
R111 1/16 miles turfOptional claiming $45,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pace1 flag
R118JACK AND JIM30%5/23/1+141···
R117IRON MAX18%9/23/1+22···
R1110SMOOTH BREEZE15%6/15/2-33···
R1112BEARY FUNNY6%15/19/2-68···
R114MO TRUMP5%15/110/104···
R1111CLEAR CONSCIENCE5%15/18/1-26···
R115LEON BLUE5%20/110/105···
R116CONMAN4%25/18/1-311···
R119SHARED SUCCESS4%25/115/107···
R111EL DE LARRY3%30/120/109···
R112TERMINAL VELOCITY2%50/130/1010···
R113CABLE READY2%50/115/1-212···
R125 1/2 furlongs turfMaiden special weightContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)1 flag
R122APERITIF25%3/17/2+81··
R124RED VELVET CAKE17%5/15/2-52···
R129COMBAT MOVE17%5/17/20····
R128MY LIL ARMY GIRL11%8/16/103··
R127DAYLIGHT DREAMER10%9/15/1-35··
R123LAKE ARIEL9%10/110/1+24···
R126SHAKE EM OFF5%20/115/10····
R121MY FIRST DINAH4%25/130/1+16··
R125GALWAY GURL2%50/115/1-37···

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 12 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet
R1Chalk4Powerline30%5/28/5
How it sets up
dirtEven pace7 going
The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 30% against the board's 30%.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
4POWERLINE30%5/28/5
7GREENWELL25%3/12/1
2THE GOOD LIFE19%4/13/1
5JACK'S GOLDEN GOAL11%8/16/1
1GOT TOUGH6%15/112/1
6LET EM KNOW5%20/115/1
3JOHNNY HOCKEY4%25/130/1
R2Scramble4Spoiler19%9/23/1
How it sets up
dirtEven pace9 going
An open heat. Nothing separates the top two by more than 1.7 points. We make the top one 19% against the board's 19%.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
4SPOILER19%9/23/1
1BERNIN HOT17%5/14/1
5REYNOLDS CHANNEL13%7/15/1
3MY NOBLE KNIGHT11%8/19/2
7BRAZENLY11%8/15/1
9INDY RAGS10%9/110/1
6SWEETALKINGBOURBON7%15/110/1
8POWER SEEKER6%15/112/1
2PINEAPPLE MAN6%15/115/1
R3Scramble6The Toy Cannon15%11/23/1
How it sets up
dirtEven pace9 going
An open heat. The top two are effectively level on our numbers. We make the top one 15% against the board's 20%.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
6THE TOY CANNON15%11/23/1
4COME FULL CIRCLE15%6/14/1
1SOLO JIM14%6/16/1
8APOLLO CODE13%13/25/1
3DINNER ROYALE10%9/16/1
2SEBASTIANTHE FIRST9%10/18/1
5CONSTANT CHAOS9%10/110/1
7CORVUS8%11/110/1
9STAYFROSTYMYFRIEND7%12/112/1
R5Lean3Kathynmarissa31%2/12/1
How it sets up
turfContested3 of 7 want the lead
Go forward5
Pace helps137
Our top-rated horse in a Grade 1. Three of them want the lead. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 5 points.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
3KATHYNMARISSA31%2/12/1
6SEGESTA19%4/13/1
4PORTFOLIO DURATION19%9/25/2
2CATHEDRAL11%8/16/1
1DYNAMIC PRICING10%9/16/1
7OZARA7%12/112/1
5FIVE G3%30/120/1
R6Scramble1Tab At Zanzibar16%5/14/1
How it sets up
dirtContested3 of 8 want the lead
Go forward358
Pace helps46
An open heat. Nothing separates the top two by more than 1.0 point. Three of them want the lead. We make the favourite, #5 DR. KAPUR, 15% against the board's 22%, shorter than we think it should be. Our own top-rated is #1 TAB AT ZANZIBAR. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
1TAB AT ZANZIBAR16%5/14/1
5DR. KAPUR15%11/25/2
6AGOO15%6/17/2
8FIVE WISHES14%6/19/2
4CALDO CANDY13%7/16/1
2UNBROKEN CHAIN10%9/112/1
7OIL CAPITAL10%9/110/1
3ROCK MUSIC6%15/112/1
R7Chalk1Effusive22%7/25/2
How it sets up
dirtEven pace9 going
The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 22% against the board's 22%.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
1EFFUSIVE22%7/25/2
6CRUISING AGAIN14%6/19/2
7ELEVATED13%13/25/1
2ENERGY FLOWS12%7/16/1
9BUSINESS MATH11%8/16/1
3MEL WENT HOME8%12/18/1
5FIFTH AND CHESTNUT7%12/110/1
4HAVE HOPE6%15/112/1
8KEY COLONY BEACH6%15/112/1
R9Lean1Criteria16%11/25/1
How it sets up
dirtEven pace10 going
Our top-rated horse in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 16% against the board's 13%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
1CRITERIA16%11/25/1
5MO THE MERRIER13%13/28/1
9GADGET PLAY13%7/17/2
10NOBLE EDITION12%15/29/2
3STIMULATE10%9/14/1
6STIRRING WORDS9%10/18/1
4DARK ASSAULT8%12/110/1
7OVECHKIN7%15/120/1
2SIDEARM7%15/115/1
8IZE A RUNNER6%15/112/1
R10Chalk3Annexperience27%5/28/5
How it sets up
dirtEven pace8 going
The board and our number agree in a $45,000 allowance optional claimer. We make the top one 27% against the board's 30%.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
3ANNEXPERIENCE27%5/28/5
8THREE B'S17%5/14/1
5WHITTINGTON PARK15%6/13/1
7ELYSIAN MEADOWS11%8/16/1
1KING'S LEAP9%10/115/1
2BERNING BEAUTY9%10/110/1
4DEAR CHAIRMAN7%12/115/1
6JACKSON HEIGHTS6%15/112/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.3 · cfg 95968fd4 · code caf2d974 · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 ba2c741b3ea0… · Scratches as of 1:03 PM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

This card was produced under the methodology version identified at publication. Detailed implementation parameters are proprietary and are no longer displayed. The original selections, probabilities, prices, timestamps, grading and integrity evidence are unchanged, and the locked card file below is the original. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash7470d5434d899bc61a55ed4fdb830522dc00a1468d9fd79f3e1b2acbe1877c31
Original recorded lock hashba2c741b3ea0c8a25ae117fa32cfbe7f8ca63879b6b1496f7fb9396e50f52426
OpenTimestamps statusBitcoin confirmed · block 958587

This card was generated on Windows. Its original lock hash was calculated from CRLF-formatted bytes before Git stored the same JSON with LF line endings. The selections and JSON values are unchanged. Use the downloadable artifact hash above to verify the public file. Full correction record · chc-2026-07-18-sar-card-01.

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