Saratoga & Del Mar · 2026 Meets · Model v0-heuristic-1.4 the anti-tout
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Transparent racing cards · Locked before post · Every pick graded

Del Mar, Sat Jul 18, 2026

4 value plays today · 7 races we're passing
StatusCompleted · races run
First post2:00 PM PT
Scratch checkAs of 1:10 PM ET
Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Sat Jul 18, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day
6KOEKKOEK
Race 11 · 1 mile turf
27%model5/2fair4/1boardWINpaid at the close
Our biggest edge on the card today (+11 pts over the board), the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number, so size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.
Today at Del MarMostly Sunny, 75°F, wind 5 to 10 mph · rain 2%, no off-track flagNWS forecast
Flags 4 of 11 races
Race 3 · 5 furlongs · turf · Optional claiming $20,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterFlagShare
7ZIP ME UP
Model
Fair
Board
19%
9/2
5/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more9/2 break-even5/1 board
Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Contested4 of 14 want the lead
Go forward1589
Pace helps613

Four of the 14 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five furlongs on turf in a $20,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

A longer-priced flag to open the Del Mar card. We give Zip Me Up about a 19% chance in the five-furlong turf dash — not the likeliest winner we'll name today, but the board has him out past where our number sits, and that gap is where a payout actually lives. He's our top figure in a full sprint, four of them gunning early.

Fair is 9/2; the price to demand is 5/1 or better, and we'd skip it underneath. In a five-eighths turf blast the trip matters as much as the figure — one bad step from the gate and the race is gone — so this is a swing, not a stand. One unit at the number, no regret if the speed sorts out against him.

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
7ZIP ME UP 19%9/25/1
4PURE CHAOS16%11/24/1
2PAVEL IS APPEALING11%8/16/1
13WINK AND A GRIN10%9/13/1
10TIGER OF THE SEA9%10/16/1
1LONG MAYSHE REIGN8%11/110/1
6BERRY VALLEY7%12/16/1
3ELLEN JORTH4%25/110/1
14CLUBHOUSE BRIDE4%25/115/1
8A GREAT SHAKING3%30/112/1
5FANCY FACTS3%30/18/1
12NELL'S LEGACY3%30/120/1
11CELESTIAL SKIES2%50/130/1
9STARS HOLLOW1%99/130/1
Race 6 · 5 furlongs · dirt · Maiden special weightFlagShare
9NET PAR
Model
Fair
Board
28%
5/2
5/2
our win %
break-even
the morning line
The board and our fair price round to the same number (5/2), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show, it is +5.6 points of win probability, not a longer price.
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more5/2 break-even5/2 board
Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Even pace9 going

Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. Nothing in here has shown real early speed on the figures the model reads.

The model’s read ▾

The shape here is what stands out. It's a maiden dirt sprint, and nobody in it has shown reliable early speed — no confirmed front-runner in the field. In a five-furlong dash that's a real edge for a horse who can break and go, because whoever grabs the lead in a race with no natural speed often gets to set it cheaply. Net Par is our top figure at 28%, and this is the kind of setup that rewards the best of a soft-pace group.

Fair 5/2, take 3/1 or better. Maidens are maidens — a first-time starter can wake up and green trips happen, and there's no long form to lean on. But the pace picture is doing our pick a favor, and at a fair price that's worth the play.

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
9NET PAR 28%5/25/2
4GOLDEN CLUB18%9/27/2
7FREEDOM SINGS16%11/24/1
5FUMO GRIGIO9%11/16/1
8OLYMPIAN THIRST8%11/18/1
10CUPID COWBOY8%12/110/1
6DICK IRA BONG6%15/112/1
3THUNDER RIDING5%20/112/1
2INCA2%50/120/1
Race 7 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Optional claiming $50,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterFlagShare
6CENTRODELANTERO
Model
Fair
Board
22%
7/2
4/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more7/2 break-even4/1 board
Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Even pace10 going

No one horse is entitled to the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

A route on the Del Mar turf, and the pace reads clean. Only one horse in here really wants the front, so we're not expecting a duel — which usually means the race gets run on the leader's terms instead of blowing apart early. Centrodelantero is our top figure at 22%, a step clear of what the board is offering.

Fair is 7/2, play 4/1 or better. A mile-and-a-sixteenth on grass off a light profile means class and finish decide it, not raw speed, and that's the part our figures like. Moderate edge, honest price — a straightforward unit if the number's there.

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
6CENTRODELANTERO 22%7/24/1
4PACKS A WAHLOP14%6/17/2
8MIDNIGHT STRIKE14%6/15/1
10MYTHICAL REEL13%7/16/1
1MR. LEASURE10%9/112/1
7CATCH THE BREEZE8%11/18/1
3HACKING IT UP7%15/16/1
2EL REY REY5%20/112/1
5IN THE TANK4%25/112/1
9MUSCLED3%30/120/1
Race 11 · 1 mile · turf · Maiden special weightFlagShare
6KOEKKOEK
Model
Fair
Board
27%
5/2
4/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more5/2 break-even4/1 board
Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Even pace11 going

Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

We close Del Mar on our second-biggest overlay of the day. Koekkoek is a maiden going a flat mile on the turf, and we make him a 27% chance where the board has him more than 3/1 longer than that — nearly eleven points of edge, behind only our Saratoga route flag. Top figure, even pace, a trip that lets a genuine horse settle and finish.

Fair 5/2, and take 3/1 or better. The honest caveat: it's a maiden route, so the form is thin and one bad beginning can end it before the stretch. But an eleven-point gap gives you room to be a little wrong and still come out ahead. A unit at the price, and let the closing number be the closing number.

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
6KOEKKOEK 27%5/24/1
4YEP18%9/27/2
10CORKSCREW ANDY11%8/16/1
5FLAMBOYANT10%9/18/1
3CONQUER WE MUST10%9/14/1
9PLAGARIST6%15/110/1
1PEACE ON EARTH4%20/112/1
11GO RALPH4%25/120/1
2MOLUCCAN4%25/112/1
8MIGHTY TORO3%30/115/1
7AMERICAN KING2%50/130/1
The whole card every runner, our number beside the board
Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R#HorseModelFairBoardEdgeWhy
R16 furlongs dirtClaiming $25,000Even pacepass
R13COMEDY TOWN26%3/12/1-11···
R15OTTO THE CONQUEROR17%5/13/1-43···
R14HEY BROTHER15%11/24/1-14···
R17ZEUS' WAR12%7/110/1+52···
R16SPECIAL CLUB10%9/16/1-16···
R12GYPSY TEARS10%9/16/1-27···
R11SOI NGERN10%9/112/1+45···
R25 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R26THIRSTY CAITLIN17%5/13/1-31···
R21I'M SMOKEN HOT13%13/25/102···
R29TAKE REVENGE11%8/16/10····
R210MS GRAINGER DANGER11%8/16/10····
R27PRINCESS LUNA9%10/110/1+23···
R23VERONICA HERZ9%10/18/10····
R24PAVULAR9%10/18/10····
R25TASHIE9%10/18/10····
R22HER STRUT6%15/112/10····
R28ENDLESS SMOKE5%20/120/1+14···
R35 furlongs turfOptional claiming $20,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)1 flag
R37ZIP ME UP19%9/25/1+81···
R34PURE CHAOS16%11/24/1+32···
R32PAVEL IS APPEALING11%8/16/1+23···
R313WINK AND A GRIN10%9/13/1-66··
R310TIGER OF THE SEA9%10/16/1+14···
R31LONG MAYSHE REIGN8%11/110/1+35··
R36BERRY VALLEY7%12/16/1-27··
R33ELLEN JORTH4%25/110/1-28···
R314CLUBHOUSE BRIDE4%25/115/109···
R38A GREAT SHAKING3%30/112/1-211··
R35FANCY FACTS3%30/18/1-412··
R312NELL'S LEGACY3%30/120/1010···
R311CELESTIAL SKIES2%50/130/1-113···
R39STARS HOLLOW1%99/130/1-114··
R45 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R49QUATTRO PASSI18%9/23/10····
R45HOLMBY16%5/17/20····
R46JANIE NOT JEANIE12%15/26/1+11···
R411VINO VINO VINO10%9/16/10····
R41MAKE ME MONEY9%10/18/1+12···
R410MYSTIC EMPRESS8%11/18/10····
R44PRINCESS JET7%15/110/10····
R47BUENA VIDA6%15/112/1+13···
R43PRO PAYNE5%20/115/104···
R42HONKY TONK GIRL5%20/18/1-35···
R48DASH5%20/115/10····
R56 furlongs dirtClaiming $16,000, non-winners of three lifetimeEven pacepass
R54KID DYNASTY23%7/23/1+31···
R58B GRAYSON14%6/14/1-22···
R57STAGGER LEE13%7/15/1-14···
R56YA'LL COME13%7/17/2-56···
R510UNBRIDLED VISION11%8/18/1+23···
R55STAY FOR THE BOOM10%9/18/1+15···
R51SPEARFISH6%15/120/1+27···
R59DO IT FOR DAVE6%15/115/1+18···
R52TIGGRRR WHITWORTH4%20/112/1-29···
R65 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pace1 flag
R69NET PAR28%5/25/2+61···
R64GOLDEN CLUB18%9/27/20····
R67FREEDOM SINGS16%11/24/10····
R65FUMO GRIGIO9%11/16/1-34···
R68OLYMPIAN THIRST8%11/18/1-13···
R610CUPID COWBOY8%12/110/1+12···
R66DICK IRA BONG6%15/112/10····
R63THUNDER RIDING5%20/112/1-15···
R62INCA2%50/120/1-26···
R71 1/16 miles turfOptional claiming $50,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pace1 flag
R76CENTRODELANTERO22%7/24/1+61···
R74PACKS A WAHLOP14%6/17/2-34···
R78MIDNIGHT STRIKE14%6/15/1+12···
R710MYTHICAL REEL13%7/16/1+13···
R71MR. LEASURE10%9/112/1+45···
R77CATCH THE BREEZE8%11/18/106···
R73HACKING IT UP7%15/16/1-58···
R72EL REY REY5%20/112/1-17···
R75IN THE TANK4%25/112/1-210···
R79MUSCLED3%30/120/109···
R81 1/16 miles dirtGrade 2 stakesContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass
R85JOURNALISM46%6/51/1+61··
R86FULL SERRANO15%11/27/2-32··
R82MIRAHMADI10%10/16/1-23··
R84IRON MAN CAL9%10/110/1+24···
R81MC VAY8%12/115/1+35··
R83SHEA BRENNAN7%15/112/1+16··
R87THE GOAT6%15/16/1-57··
R91 mile turfGrade 2 stakesContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass
R91RAIDING PARTY22%7/23/1+31··
R93GROUND SUPPORT11%8/15/1-23···
R96LIGHT WON UP10%9/110/1+32···
R99LOOKIN AT DIAMOND10%9/16/1-14···
R98INBOX8%11/18/1-16··
R97MARJORAM7%12/18/1-15···
R94SPIRIT DOLL7%12/18/1-27···
R95PEANUTBUTTERBOMBE7%12/18/1-28···
R92WILD LIKE THE WEST6%15/115/1+111··
R911CORTINA D'AMPREZZO5%20/120/1+19···
R910SOMERSET WEST5%20/120/1+110···
R101 mile dirtOptional claiming $50,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (6 early-speed types)pass
R101VITRUVIAN MAN16%11/26/1+41···
R108CLOUSEAU14%6/17/2-45··
R103FARAN13%7/15/1-12··
R104MAGNIFY12%7/14/1-44···
R107PURE MADNESS12%15/28/1+33··
R105VARNEY8%11/18/1-17··
R102BERLIN WALL8%11/18/1-18···
R106CENTRAL DISPATCH7%12/112/1+16··
R109NATIVE LAND5%20/115/109···
R1010MARY'S BOY BOLT5%20/120/1+110··
R111 mile turfMaiden special weightEven pace1 flag
R116KOEKKOEK27%5/24/1+111···
R114YEP18%9/27/20····
R1110CORKSCREW ANDY11%8/16/10····
R115FLAMBOYANT10%9/18/1+22···
R113CONQUER WE MUST10%9/14/1-63···
R119PLAGARIST6%15/110/1-14···
R111PEACE ON EARTH4%20/112/1-26···
R1111GO RALPH4%25/120/105···
R112MOLUCCAN4%25/112/1-27···
R118MIGHTY TORO3%30/115/1-28···
R117AMERICAN KING2%50/130/109···

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 11 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet
R1Chalk3Comedy Town26%3/12/1
How it sets up
dirtEven pace7 going
The board and our number agree in a $25,000 claimer. We make the top one 26% against the board's 27%.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
3COMEDY TOWN26%3/12/1
5OTTO THE CONQUEROR17%5/13/1
4HEY BROTHER15%11/24/1
7ZEUS' WAR12%7/110/1
6SPECIAL CLUB10%9/16/1
2GYPSY TEARS10%9/16/1
1SOI NGERN10%9/112/1
R2Scramble6Thirsty Caitlin17%5/13/1
How it sets up
dirtEven pace10 going
A full field of ten. Nothing separates the top two by more than 4.0 points. We make the top one 17% against the board's 20%.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
6THIRSTY CAITLIN17%5/13/1
1I'M SMOKEN HOT13%13/25/1
9TAKE REVENGE11%8/16/1
10MS GRAINGER DANGER11%8/16/1
7PRINCESS LUNA9%10/110/1
3VERONICA HERZ9%10/18/1
4PAVULAR9%10/18/1
5TASHIE9%10/18/1
2HER STRUT6%15/112/1
8ENDLESS SMOKE5%20/120/1
R4Scramble9Quattro Passi18%9/23/1
How it sets up
dirtEven pace11 going
A full field of eleven. Nothing separates the top two by more than 2.0 points. We make the top one 18% against the board's 18%.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
9QUATTRO PASSI18%9/23/1
5HOLMBY16%5/17/2
6JANIE NOT JEANIE12%15/26/1
11VINO VINO VINO10%9/16/1
1MAKE ME MONEY9%10/18/1
10MYSTIC EMPRESS8%11/18/1
4PRINCESS JET7%15/110/1
7BUENA VIDA6%15/112/1
3PRO PAYNE5%20/115/1
2HONKY TONK GIRL5%20/18/1
8DASH5%20/115/1
R5Lean4Kid Dynasty23%7/23/1
How it sets up
dirtEven pace9 going
Our top-rated horse in a $16,000 claimer. We make the top one 23% against the board's 20%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
4KID DYNASTY23%7/23/1
8B GRAYSON14%6/14/1
7STAGGER LEE13%7/15/1
6YA'LL COME13%7/17/2
10UNBRIDLED VISION11%8/18/1
5STAY FOR THE BOOM10%9/18/1
1SPEARFISH6%15/120/1
9DO IT FOR DAVE6%15/115/1
2TIGGRRR WHITWORTH4%20/112/1
R8Lean5Journalism46%6/51/1
How it sets up
dirtContested4 of 7 want the lead
Go forward267
Pace helps135
Our top-rated horse in a Grade 2. Four horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 6 points.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
5JOURNALISM46%6/51/1
6FULL SERRANO15%11/27/2
2MIRAHMADI10%10/16/1
4IRON MAN CAL9%10/110/1
1MC VAY8%12/115/1
3SHEA BRENNAN7%15/112/1
7THE GOAT6%15/16/1
R9Lean1Raiding Party22%7/23/1
How it sets up
turfContested4 of 11 want the lead
Pace helps128
Our top-rated horse in a Grade 2. Four horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
1RAIDING PARTY22%7/23/1
3GROUND SUPPORT11%8/15/1
6LIGHT WON UP10%9/110/1
9LOOKIN AT DIAMOND10%9/16/1
8INBOX8%11/18/1
7MARJORAM7%12/18/1
4SPIRIT DOLL7%12/18/1
5PEANUTBUTTERBOMBE7%12/18/1
2WILD LIKE THE WEST6%15/115/1
11CORTINA D'AMPREZZO5%20/120/1
10SOMERSET WEST5%20/120/1
R10Lean1Vitruvian Man16%11/26/1
How it sets up
dirtContested6 of 10 want the lead
Go forward356
Pace helps7810
Our top-rated horse in a $50,000 allowance optional claimer. Six horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 4 points.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
1VITRUVIAN MAN16%11/26/1
8CLOUSEAU14%6/17/2
3FARAN13%7/15/1
4MAGNIFY12%7/14/1
7PURE MADNESS12%15/28/1
5VARNEY8%11/18/1
2BERLIN WALL8%11/18/1
6CENTRAL DISPATCH7%12/112/1
9NATIVE LAND5%20/115/1
10MARY'S BOY BOLT5%20/120/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.3 · cfg 95968fd4 · code caf2d974 · takeout (DMR) win 15.43% / exacta 22.68% · card SHA-256 452a707b6452… · Scratches as of 1:10 PM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

This card was produced under the methodology version identified at publication. Detailed implementation parameters are proprietary and are no longer displayed. The original selections, probabilities, prices, timestamps, grading and integrity evidence are unchanged, and the locked card file below is the original. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hashf054f172d11271ff6d1148f31a23fce7f063e31f37102aa1246669c7b415a7a9
Original recorded lock hash452a707b645298a88c84fc1af7a9c045671ab827537c7c73a21f17abf6e99ef7
OpenTimestamps statusBitcoin confirmed · block 958590

This card was generated on Windows. Its original lock hash was calculated from CRLF-formatted bytes before Git stored the same JSON with LF line endings. The selections and JSON values are unchanged. Use the downloadable artifact hash above to verify the public file. Full correction record · chc-2026-07-18-dmr-card-01.

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