Saratoga & Del Mar · 2026 Meets · Model v0-heuristic-1.4 the anti-tout
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Saratoga, Fri Jul 17, 2026

4 value plays today · 6 races we're passing
StatusCompleted · races run
First post1:10 PM ET
Scratch checkAs of 12:24 PM ET
Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Fri Jul 17, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day
2ICE CHOCOLAT
Race 8 · 1 1/16 miles turf
19%model4/1fair7/2boardWINpaid at the close
Our biggest edge on the card today (+9 pts over the board), the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number, so size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.
Today at SaratogaSunny, 84°F, wind 6 mph · rain 1%, no off-track flagNWS forecast
Flags 4 of 10 races
Race 1 · 5 1/2 furlongs · turf · Maiden special weightFlagShare
3BEIJING
Model
Fair
Board
22%
7/2
4/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more7/2 break-even4/1 board
Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Even pace7 going

Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

Maiden fields are the hardest races to price, and we're leaning on the figure here. Beijing tops our number at 22% in the turf sprint, a notch above where the board has him. Not a strong statement — maidens rarely are — but the figure says he's live and the price is generous.

Fair 7/2, play 4/1 or better. The thinner side of a thin race: a bet at the number, not a chase.

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
2RED SQUARE27%5/28/5
3BEIJING 22%7/24/1
6BLAZING TIGER16%11/29/2
5HE'S MY KIND16%11/23/1
7FRENCHQUARTER NOTE10%9/16/1
1SHIRL'S SOUL TOWN6%15/112/1
4ONEPAC4%25/120/1
Race 5 · 5 1/2 furlongs · turf · Optional claiming $45,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterFlagShare
1BOSTON'S PHINEST
Model
Fair
Board
16%
5/1
5/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
The board and our fair price round to the same number (5/1), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show, it is +8.9 points of win probability, not a longer price.
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more5/1 break-even5/1 board
Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Contested6 of 14 want the lead
Go forward45912
Pace helps71011

Six of the 14 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five and a half furlongs on turf in a $45,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

Six horses want the lead in this five-and-a-half turf dash — a pace meltdown waiting to happen. Boston's Phinest is the one our figures like to be standing when it clears: a 16% shot where the board has him nearer 8, a nine-point gap and the biggest number we're giving up on a longshot today.

It's a price with a reason. Fair 5/1, play 6/1 or better. If the speed burns itself out the way six-deep usually does, this is the horse it sets up for.

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
1BOSTON'S PHINEST 16%5/15/1
9PARTY IN THE ARMY14%13/25/2
10ANYWAY11%8/13/1
5TWISTED FILIGREE9%10/12/1
6VACATION DANCE9%10/15/2
13NEW YORK SCRAPPY9%10/14/1
7FUNNY FACTOR8%11/16/1
8COURTLY BANKER6%15/15/1
2PROJECTABILITY6%15/18/1
11JACKSON HEIGHTS3%30/110/1
14BEARY FUNNY3%30/112/1
12KID BILLY3%30/18/1
4DISARMED2%50/115/1
3GRAYWING1%99/150/1
Race 8 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Claiming $40,000FlagShare
2ICE CHOCOLAT
Model
Fair
Board
19%
4/1
7/2
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more4/1 break-even7/2 board
Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Even pace16 going

No one horse is entitled to the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

Our widest disagreement at Saratoga today. Ice Chocolat is the top figure in the turf route, and we make him a 19% chance where the board has him at better than double that price — a nine-point gap. Even pace, so no traffic excuse either way; the number just likes the horse.

Fair 4/1, play 9/2 or better. About as straightforward as our flags get — the figure says he's underpriced, and you only collect if you hold out for 9/2.

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
2ICE CHOCOLAT 19%4/17/2
4BEEF WINSLOW13%7/13/1
10OCEAN ATLANTIQUE12%15/24/1
12INEXORABLE11%8/12/1
3BELOUNI8%12/16/1
16BRAZENLY6%15/17/2
7SANTORINI6%15/15/1
5HEATHGUARD4%25/112/1
15POWER SEEKER4%25/16/1
14THREE TECHNIQUE4%25/110/1
6PRESIDER3%30/112/1
13PINEAPPLE MAN3%30/18/1
11AMBITION3%30/115/1
1CLASSIC CREATION2%50/115/1
8TREATY OBLIGATION2%50/120/1
9LOU1%99/130/1
Race 9 · 1 mile · turf · Stakes, $150,000 purseFlagShare
9DEEP SATIN
Model
Fair
Board
13%
13/2
5/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more13/2 break-even5/1 board
Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Contested3 of 14 want the lead
Go forward12
Pace helps127

Three of the 14 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile on turf in a starter allowance should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

The last flag of the day is a longshot in the De La Rose. Deep Satin tops our figures in the mile turf stakes at 13% — not a number that screams, but the board's is quieter still, and three-deep early speed gives an off-pace type something to run at late.

Fair 13/2, play 15/2 or better. A dart at a stakes price: one unit if you can get the number, nothing if you can't.

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
4SANDTRAP15%6/13/1
9DEEP SATIN 13%13/25/1
7PROCTOR STREET11%8/14/1
3AND ONE MORE TIME11%8/14/1
13WITH THE ANGELS10%9/13/1
11SCALABLE8%12/15/2
2HANG THE MOON7%12/18/1
12BERNIETAKESCHARGE7%12/14/1
8AWESOME CZECH6%15/16/1
10BEING BETTY3%30/120/1
14GOING STEADY3%30/112/1
6LONG AGO3%30/112/1
1SALTY SENORITA2%50/130/1
5TABLE FLIRT2%50/120/1
The whole card every runner, our number beside the board
Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R#HorseModelFairBoardEdgeWhy
R15 1/2 furlongs turfMaiden special weightEven pace1 flag
R12RED SQUARE27%5/28/5-32···
R13BEIJING22%7/24/1+61···
R16BLAZING TIGER16%11/29/2+23···
R15HE'S MY KIND16%11/23/1-44···
R17FRENCHQUARTER NOTE10%9/16/1-25···
R11SHIRL'S SOUL TOWN6%15/112/10····
R14ONEPAC4%25/120/106···
R27 furlongs dirtMaiden claiming $100,000Even pacepass
R23DISCOTHEQUE22%7/23/1+31···
R26THE STANDARD17%9/24/1+22···
R22REGENERATION17%5/15/2-55···
R21SIR DUKE14%6/14/1-13···
R24OLD TIME ROCKNROLL12%15/26/1+14···
R25GRAND GESTURE10%9/16/1-16···
R28CHESS MATCH4%25/130/1+17···
R27SUNSHINE BOBALOU4%30/130/1+18···
R37 furlongs dirtClaiming $62,500Even pacepass
R38TWENTY FOUR MAMBA18%9/23/1-12···
R33UNLIMITEDPOTENTIAL17%5/14/1+11···
R34TWO EAGLES RIVER16%11/27/2-23···
R31RIDGEWOOD RUNNER16%11/27/2-24···
R32REDDINGTON11%8/15/1-27···
R36CASTLE CHAOS9%10/110/1+25···
R35PARADISE VALLEY8%11/112/1+26···
R37WHAT'S UP BRO5%20/120/1+18···
R45 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R46R KAN'T MISS20%4/13/10····
R45LEXI'S CHARM16%11/24/10····
R48JUNEAU14%6/19/201···
R49ATLAS A EYE11%8/16/10····
R42SEA ISLE CITY9%10/18/10····
R47GOODPROBLEMTOHAVE9%10/18/10····
R410DENOS GRACE8%12/110/102···
R44VU JADE6%15/112/10····
R43BELMONT C. C.5%20/115/10····
R41FRESHLY MINTED4%25/120/10····
R55 1/2 furlongs turfOptional claiming $45,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (6 early-speed types)1 flag
R51BOSTON'S PHINEST16%5/15/1+91···
R59PARTY IN THE ARMY14%13/25/2+12··
R510ANYWAY11%8/13/103··
R55TWISTED FILIGREE9%10/12/1-57··
R56VACATION DANCE9%10/15/2-38···
R513NEW YORK SCRAPPY9%10/14/105···
R57FUNNY FACTOR8%11/16/1+24··
R58COURTLY BANKER6%15/15/1-19···
R52PROJECTABILITY6%15/18/1+16···
R511JACKSON HEIGHTS3%30/110/1-111··
R514BEARY FUNNY3%30/112/1010···
R512KID BILLY3%30/18/1-213··
R54DISARMED2%50/115/1-112··
R53GRAYWING1%99/150/1014···
R61 3/8 miles turfOptional claiming $80,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R616GEORGIA MAGIC10%9/17/201··
R615DREAMLIKE10%9/15/2-311··
R613MUTAAWID9%10/15/1+22···
R62RIGHT TO VOTE9%11/15/1+14···
R64EMERGENCE8%11/19/205···
R63ARKHIPOV8%12/17/2-210···
R611HARROW8%12/18/1+33···
R65MAYOR OF MIDNIGHT7%12/16/1+18··
R69NOBLE CONFESSOR7%12/16/1+16···
R67END OF ROMANCE6%15/18/1+17···
R68THE HIDDEN CHAMBER5%20/112/1+29··
R612BRITAIN'S KITTEN4%20/18/1012···
R66GILDED CRAKEN4%25/16/1-316··
R614JUST A FAIR SHAKE2%50/115/1013··
R610PASSING GAME2%50/115/1-114··
R61WAITLIST2%50/130/1015···
R71 1/8 miles dirtClaiming $20,000, non-winners of two lifetimeContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass
R79MIRAGE25%3/12/1-11··
R71ANTIETAM19%9/25/2-32··
R77GEOSTOBLAME17%5/13/1-23··
R73YOU'RE LOOKIN GOOD9%10/18/106···
R72WHITBY8%11/18/1-15··
R78FIRST PITCH7%12/120/1+44···
R76RESIDE6%15/115/1+17···
R74MAGNUM'S MACROBRST6%15/115/1+18···
R75UNCLE BARRIE3%30/130/1+19···
R81 1/16 miles turfClaiming $40,000Even pace1 flag
R82ICE CHOCOLAT19%4/17/2+91···
R84BEEF WINSLOW13%7/13/1+23···
R810OCEAN ATLANTIQUE12%15/24/1+32···
R812INEXORABLE11%8/12/1-45···
R83BELOUNI8%12/16/1+14···
R816BRAZENLY6%15/17/2-412···
R87SANTORINI6%15/15/1-26···
R85HEATHGUARD4%25/112/107···
R815POWER SEEKER4%25/16/1-314···
R814THREE TECHNIQUE4%25/110/108···
R86PRESIDER3%30/112/109···
R813PINEAPPLE MAN3%30/18/1-215···
R811AMBITION3%30/115/1010···
R81CLASSIC CREATION2%50/115/1013···
R88TREATY OBLIGATION2%50/120/1011···
R89LOU1%99/130/1016···
R91 mile turfStakes, $150,000 purseContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag
R94SANDTRAP15%6/13/1+32···
R99DEEP SATIN13%13/25/1+51···
R97PROCTOR STREET11%8/14/1+14··
R93AND ONE MORE TIME11%8/14/1+13···
R913WITH THE ANGELS10%9/13/1-25···
R911SCALABLE8%12/15/2-610···
R92HANG THE MOON7%12/18/1+26··
R912BERNIETAKESCHARGE7%12/14/1-37··
R98AWESOME CZECH6%15/16/1-18···
R910BEING BETTY3%30/120/1+19···
R914GOING STEADY3%30/112/1-110···
R96LONG AGO3%30/112/1-112···
R91SALTY SENORITA2%50/130/1013··
R95TABLE FLIRT2%50/120/1-114···
R106 1/2 furlongs dirtClaiming $20,000, non-winners of two lifetimeEven pacepass
R102DONNA ROMANO21%7/22/1-52···
R104TENACIOUS CHILD18%9/23/1-11···
R109OLIVIA'S GRACE12%7/16/1+13···
R1010KAY ROAD11%8/16/1-15···
R106UNDERGRAD9%10/110/1+24···
R105LADY DELILAH7%12/115/1+26···
R108WILL OF A WOMANNE7%15/112/1+17···
R1011ADMIRAL SOL4%20/130/1+28···
R103FURRY FOX4%25/120/1010···
R107ST. BRIGID'S CROSS4%25/112/1-211···
R101GRESHAM'S LAW3%30/130/1+19···

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 10 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet
R2Lean3Discotheque22%7/23/1
How it sets up
dirtEven pace8 going
Our top-rated horse in a $100,000 maiden claimer. We make the top one 22% against the board's 19%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
3DISCOTHEQUE22%7/23/1
6THE STANDARD17%9/24/1
2REGENERATION17%5/15/2
1SIR DUKE14%6/14/1
4OLD TIME ROCKNROLL12%15/26/1
5GRAND GESTURE10%9/16/1
8CHESS MATCH4%25/130/1
7SUNSHINE BOBALOU4%30/130/1
R3Scramble8Twenty Four Mamba18%9/23/1
How it sets up
dirtEven pace8 going
An open heat. Nothing separates the top two by more than 1.2 points. We make the top one 18% against the board's 20%.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
8TWENTY FOUR MAMBA18%9/23/1
3UNLIMITEDPOTENTIAL17%5/14/1
4TWO EAGLES RIVER16%11/27/2
1RIDGEWOOD RUNNER16%11/27/2
2REDDINGTON11%8/15/1
6CASTLE CHAOS9%10/110/1
5PARADISE VALLEY8%11/112/1
7WHAT'S UP BRO5%20/120/1
R4Scramble6R Kan't Miss20%4/13/1
How it sets up
dirtEven pace10 going
A full field of ten. Nothing separates the top two by more than 3.9 points. We make the top one 20% against the board's 20%.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
6R KAN'T MISS20%4/13/1
5LEXI'S CHARM16%11/24/1
8JUNEAU14%6/19/2
9ATLAS A EYE11%8/16/1
2SEA ISLE CITY9%10/18/1
7GOODPROBLEMTOHAVE9%10/18/1
10DENOS GRACE8%12/110/1
4VU JADE6%15/112/1
3BELMONT C. C.5%20/115/1
1FRESHLY MINTED4%25/120/1
R6Scramble16Georgia Magic10%9/17/2
How it sets up
turfContested3 of 16 want the lead
Go forward6101416
Pace helps5815
A full field of 16. The top two are effectively level on our numbers. Three of them want the lead.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
16GEORGIA MAGIC10%9/17/2
15DREAMLIKE10%9/15/2
13MUTAAWID9%10/15/1
2RIGHT TO VOTE9%11/15/1
4EMERGENCE8%11/19/2
3ARKHIPOV8%12/17/2
11HARROW8%12/18/1
5MAYOR OF MIDNIGHT7%12/16/1
9NOBLE CONFESSOR7%12/16/1
7END OF ROMANCE6%15/18/1
8THE HIDDEN CHAMBER5%20/112/1
12BRITAIN'S KITTEN4%20/18/1
6GILDED CRAKEN4%25/16/1
14JUST A FAIR SHAKE2%50/115/1
10PASSING GAME2%50/115/1
1WAITLIST2%50/130/1
R7Chalk9Mirage25%3/12/1
How it sets up
dirtContested4 of 9 want the lead
Go forward2
Pace helps179
The board and our number agree in a $20,000 claimer. Four horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
9MIRAGE25%3/12/1
1ANTIETAM19%9/25/2
7GEOSTOBLAME17%5/13/1
3YOU'RE LOOKIN GOOD9%10/18/1
2WHITBY8%11/18/1
8FIRST PITCH7%12/120/1
6RESIDE6%15/115/1
4MAGNUM'S MACROBRST6%15/115/1
5UNCLE BARRIE3%30/130/1
R10Chalk2Donna Romano21%7/22/1
How it sets up
dirtEven pace11 going
The board and our number agree in a $20,000 claimer. A full field of eleven.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
2DONNA ROMANO21%7/22/1
4TENACIOUS CHILD18%9/23/1
9OLIVIA'S GRACE12%7/16/1
10KAY ROAD11%8/16/1
6UNDERGRAD9%10/110/1
5LADY DELILAH7%12/115/1
8WILL OF A WOMANNE7%15/112/1
11ADMIRAL SOL4%20/130/1
3FURRY FOX4%25/120/1
7ST. BRIGID'S CROSS4%25/112/1
1GRESHAM'S LAW3%30/130/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.2 · cfg b00cb21f · code 958a2d2e · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 cb1ec2f6d1d6… · Scratches as of 12:24 PM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

This card was produced under the methodology version identified at publication. Detailed implementation parameters are proprietary and are no longer displayed. The original selections, probabilities, prices, timestamps, grading and integrity evidence are unchanged, and the locked card file below is the original. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hasheee831ef7500a09f6cd59e32529cc279067694888cf9b0a613bc8c683279f777
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OpenTimestamps statusBitcoin confirmed · block 958444

This card was generated on Windows. Its original lock hash was calculated from CRLF-formatted bytes before Git stored the same JSON with LF line endings. The selections and JSON values are unchanged. Use the downloadable artifact hash above to verify the public file. Full correction record · chc-2026-07-17-sar-card-01.

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