Del Mar, Fri Jul 17, 2026

10 races · published 12:31 PM ET · card locked

4 value plays today · 6 races we're passing

StatusCompleted · races run

First post2:00 PM PT

Scratch checkAs of 12:24 PM ET

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Fri Jul 17, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day

3VICTORIOUS DREAM

Race 2 · 1 1/16 miles turf

24%model3/1fair6/1boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+12 pts over the board), the price may move either way into post; you’re paid the close. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Today at Del MarMostly Sunny, 76°F, wind 10 to 15 mph · rain 3%, no off-track flagNWS forecast

Flags 4 of 10 races

New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.

Today’s plays4 flags

RaceHorseModelBoardEdge

R23Victorious Dream24%6/1+12 pts R31Charlie's Clock32%2/1+6 pts R41Code Duello24%7/2+6 pts R82Secured Freedom11%12/1+5 pts

Race 2 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Optional claiming $80,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterFlag

3VICTORIOUS DREAM

Model

Fair

Board

24%

3/1

6/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace6 going

No one horse is entitled to the lead. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

The best thing on our card today, and it isn't close. We make Victorious Dream a 24% chance in the mile-and-a-sixteenth turf, where the board is treating him like a horse half that likely — a twelve-point gap, the widest we've got. He tops our figures, and there's only one true speed in here to worry about, so nothing about the shape argues against him.

Fair is 3/1. He's a bet at 7/2 or better and a pass under it — on the tote you take the closing price, and a horse this live tends to get bet down, so watch the board late and don't chase a short one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	RED CHERRY	26%	3/1	8/5
3	VICTORIOUS DREAM ◀	24%	3/1	6/1
4	STRUCK BY HER	17%	5/1	7/2
1	PEPPERMINT DASH	12%	15/2	4/1
5	SOUL SISTER	11%	8/1	6/1
6	WAITING FOR YOU	10%	9/1	6/1

Race 3 · 5 1/2 furlongs · dirt · Maiden optional claiming $150,000Flag

1CHARLIE'S CLOCK

Model

Fair

Board

32%

2/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

The board and our fair price round to the same number (2/1), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show, it is +5.5 points of win probability, not a longer price.

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace6 going

Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

Our most confident number on the day belongs to a maiden. We make Charlie's Clock a 32% shot in the dirt sprint — the likeliest winner we flag anywhere. The catch is the board already knows it: he's the favorite, so the room between our price and theirs is narrow.

That makes the discipline the whole game here. Fair is 2/1; take 5/2 or better and skip it if he's bet shorter. A short-priced flag is still a flag, but only at a price that pays for the risk.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	CHARLIE'S CLOCK ◀	32%	2/1	2/1
6	BILLY GOAT	20%	4/1	5/2
4	LOST ANGELES	16%	5/1	4/1
3	BOSS MAN BOLT	14%	13/2	4/1
5	FREE SOLO	12%	15/2	6/1
2	JACK EM UP	6%	15/1	12/1

Race 4 · 5 furlongs · turf · Claiming $40,000Flag

1CODE DUELLO

Model

Fair

Board

24%

3/1

7/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested4 of 8 want the lead

Go forward13

Pace helps578

Four of the 8 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five furlongs on turf in a $40,000 claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

This one's a wrinkle. Code Duello is our top figure in the five-furlong turf dash, but the race is a speed brawl — four early types — and he's one of them, so we actually knocked his number down for the traffic he'll face up front. Even after that markdown, our 24% sits clear of the board.

So it's a flag we're a little cautious on. Fair 3/1, play 7/2 or better. If the pace melts down the way four-deep speed usually does, he's vulnerable; we've priced some of that in, not all of it.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	CODE DUELLO ◀	24%	3/1	7/2
4	DONCIC	14%	6/1	3/1
8	SMART CODE	13%	13/2	6/1
5	NASTY HABIT	12%	7/1	4/1
3	ALPHABETICAL ORDER	12%	15/2	6/1
7	GREGORY'S PRIDE	11%	15/2	6/1
2	MUBTADAA	10%	9/1	12/1
6	TOM SEAVER	3%	30/1	15/1

Race 8 · 1 mile · turf · Stakes, $150,000 purseFlag

2SECURED FREEDOM

Model

Fair

Board

11%

8/1

12/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price should hold A long board price the late money tends to leave alone, so you should still get a strong number at post, the fullest version of the edge.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace12 going

Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

A price play in the Oceanside. We give Secured Freedom about an 11% chance at a mile on the grass — not likely on its own, but the crowd has written it off at odds far longer than we'd make it, and that's where a payout actually lives. It tops our figures despite the neglect.

Fair is 8/1; the number to demand is 9/1 or better. This is a swing, not a stand — one unit at the price, and no heartbreak if it doesn't come.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	MR. A. P.	14%	6/1	5/1
12	LATER THAN PLANNED	12%	7/1	6/1
5	BUST OUT	12%	15/2	4/1
2	SECURED FREEDOM ◀	11%	8/1	12/1
3	UNRIVALED TIME	8%	12/1	12/1
4	PROLETARIAT	8%	12/1	8/1
8	CHARLIE'S CURLIN	8%	12/1	6/1
1	IRISEACH	7%	15/1	8/1
11	JORDI BEAR	6%	15/1	12/1
7	TIZ ALL THAT	5%	15/1	12/1
10	ONE MORE FREUD	5%	20/1	15/1
9	MO KOKO	3%	30/1	30/1

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board

Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R	#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Edge	Why
R11 mile dirtClaiming $16,000Lone speedpass
R1	7	HARD TO FIGURE	24%	3/1	8/5	-6	1···
R1	8	PIONEER PRINCE	14%	6/1	5/1	+1	3▲··
R1	2	HABEAS	12%	15/2	8/1	+3	2···
R1	5	COWBOY MIKE	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	4···
R1	4	MIGHTY KAI	10%	9/1	6/1	-1	7···
R1	6	KEEP MOVIN' ON	9%	10/1	8/1	0	6···
R1	1	DURAN	8%	12/1	12/1	+2	5···
R1	9	TARIFF	6%	15/1	12/1	0	8···
R1	3	SWAGGISH	6%	15/1	12/1	0	9···
R21 1/16 miles turfOptional claiming $80,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pace1 flag
R2	2	RED CHERRY	26%	3/1	8/5	-5	2···
R2	3	VICTORIOUS DREAM	24%	3/1	6/1	+12	1···
R2	4	STRUCK BY HER	17%	5/1	7/2	-1	3···
R2	1	PEPPERMINT DASH	12%	15/2	4/1	-4	6···
R2	5	SOUL SISTER	11%	8/1	6/1	0	4···
R2	6	WAITING FOR YOU	10%	9/1	6/1	-2	5···
R35 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden optional claiming $150,000Even pace1 flag
R3	1	CHARLIE'S CLOCK	32%	2/1	2/1	+6	1···
R3	6	BILLY GOAT	20%	4/1	5/2	-3	2···
R3	4	LOST ANGELES	16%	5/1	4/1	0	····
R3	3	BOSS MAN BOLT	14%	13/2	4/1	-3	3···
R3	5	FREE SOLO	12%	15/2	6/1	0	····
R3	2	JACK EM UP	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R45 furlongs turfClaiming $40,000Contested pace likely (4 early-speed types)1 flag
R4	1	CODE DUELLO	24%	3/1	7/2	+6	1▼··
R4	4	DONCIC	14%	6/1	3/1	-6	6···
R4	8	SMART CODE	13%	13/2	6/1	+2	4▲··
R4	5	NASTY HABIT	12%	7/1	4/1	-4	7▲··
R4	3	ALPHABETICAL ORDER	12%	15/2	6/1	0	3▼··
R4	7	GREGORY'S PRIDE	11%	15/2	6/1	0	5▲··
R4	2	MUBTADAA	10%	9/1	12/1	+4	2···
R4	6	TOM SEAVER	3%	30/1	15/1	-2	8···
R55 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R5	4	LOOKS LIKE N ANGEL	18%	9/2	7/2	0	····
R5	6	ROSA'S MIRACLE	16%	11/2	4/1	0	····
R5	3	TIJUANA MONEY	15%	6/1	4/1	-1	1···
R5	5	ON BROADWAY	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R5	7	SAUCED UP	9%	10/1	8/1	+1	2···
R5	1	LESS PLEASE	9%	10/1	8/1	0	····
R5	8	LIHUE PRINCESS	7%	12/1	12/1	+1	3···
R5	10	STRIDENT MISS	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R5	9	MANEE	5%	20/1	15/1	0	····
R5	2	BEASTRO	4%	25/1	20/1	0	····
R61 1/16 miles turfOptional claiming $100,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R6	13	FIRST PEACE	19%	4/1	3/1	+4	1···
R6	4	DETAIN	17%	5/1	7/2	+3	2···
R6	12	TWIRLING POINT	11%	8/1	5/1	+1	3▲··
R6	8	MAAZ	10%	9/1	4/1	-2	7▲··
R6	7	CHARLIE'S TO BLAME	8%	11/1	4/1	-4	5▼··
R6	3	WATSONVILLE	8%	12/1	8/1	+1	4···
R6	6	GAME WARRIOR	6%	15/1	8/1	0	6···
R6	9	WAR AT SEA	5%	20/1	12/1	0	8···
R6	5	SCIPIO	4%	25/1	12/1	-1	11···
R6	10	TEMPUS VOLAT	4%	25/1	15/1	0	10▲··
R6	1	SARWAR	3%	30/1	12/1	-1	12···
R6	2	MAN AMONG MEN	3%	30/1	20/1	0	9···
R6	11	IRISH PROPHET	3%	30/1	12/1	-2	13···
R71 mile dirtClaiming $25,000, non-winners of two lifetimeEven pacepass
R7	5	REDIAL	15%	11/2	4/1	-1	1···
R7	3	HONDO CROUCH	15%	11/2	7/2	-3	4···
R7	7	CURLY'S AGENDA	11%	8/1	8/1	+2	2···
R7	1	FOMO JOE	11%	8/1	8/1	+2	3···
R7	2	CIRCUIT BREAKER	11%	8/1	6/1	-1	5···
R7	4	PACER	9%	10/1	8/1	0	6···
R7	9	DAY MAN	9%	10/1	8/1	0	7···
R7	8	SKYQUIST	7%	12/1	8/1	-2	9···
R7	10	BIG REFLECTIONS	7%	15/1	12/1	+1	8···
R7	6	AMADOR	4%	25/1	20/1	0	10···
R81 mile turfStakes, $150,000 purseEven pace1 flag
R8	6	MR. A. P.	14%	6/1	5/1	+1	2···
R8	12	LATER THAN PLANNED	12%	7/1	6/1	+1	3···
R8	5	BUST OUT	12%	15/2	4/1	-4	5···
R8	2	SECURED FREEDOM	11%	8/1	12/1	+5	1···
R8	3	UNRIVALED TIME	8%	12/1	12/1	+2	4···
R8	4	PROLETARIAT	8%	12/1	8/1	-1	6···
R8	8	CHARLIE'S CURLIN	8%	12/1	6/1	-3	11···
R8	1	IRISEACH	7%	15/1	8/1	-2	10···
R8	11	JORDI BEAR	6%	15/1	12/1	0	7···
R8	7	TIZ ALL THAT	5%	15/1	12/1	-1	9···
R8	10	ONE MORE FREUD	5%	20/1	15/1	0	8···
R8	9	MO KOKO	3%	30/1	30/1	+1	12···
R96 1/2 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $20,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pacepass
R9	9	FRANK BULLITT	17%	5/1	4/1	+1	1···
R9	4	MATT AT FIVE	17%	5/1	3/1	-3	3···
R9	5	MOMENT OF VALOR	12%	7/1	6/1	+1	2···
R9	10	ANOTHER BULLEIT	12%	15/2	6/1	0	4···
R9	1	RODRIGOKNOWS	11%	8/1	6/1	-1	5···
R9	2	CURLIN COMMAND	8%	12/1	12/1	+1	6···
R9	8	ITS A CINCH	8%	12/1	8/1	-1	8···
R9	6	GEEZER	6%	15/1	12/1	0	9···
R9	3	CLEVER CLOVER	6%	15/1	20/1	+2	7···
R9	7	KERRY GOLD	5%	20/1	15/1	0	10···
R101 mile turfMaiden special weightContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R10	9	ULYSSES ROSE	22%	7/2	7/2	+5	1···
R10	5	PEACHY CANYON	19%	4/1	4/1	+4	2▲··
R10	4	PENTLE BAY	12%	15/2	5/1	-1	4···
R10	7	GOODIES	11%	8/1	5/1	-2	3▼··
R10	12	NOVITA DOMINGA	7%	12/1	8/1	-1	8▲··
R10	10	JET BLACK JEWEL	7%	15/1	12/1	+1	5···
R10	6	HELEN'S TIME	6%	15/1	12/1	0	7▲··
R10	2	GOLDEN HOPE	6%	15/1	12/1	0	6···
R10	3	JASMINE	3%	30/1	15/1	-1	9▼··
R10	1	GRANDMA MARY	2%	50/1	20/1	-1	11···
R10	8	MOLLY E	2%	50/1	20/1	-1	10▼··
R10	11	RABID RESPONSE	2%	50/1	30/1	-1	12···

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 10 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet

R1Chalk7Hard To Figure24%3/18/5

How it sets up

dirtLone speedone gets loose on the lead, 9 going

Alone on the lead8

The board and our number agree in a $16,000 claimer. One horse looks alone on the lead, which our pace adjustment credits. We make the favourite, #7 HARD TO FIGURE, 24% against the board's 31%, shorter than we think it should be. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
7	HARD TO FIGURE	24%	3/1	8/5
8	PIONEER PRINCE	14%	6/1	5/1
2	HABEAS	12%	15/2	8/1
5	COWBOY MIKE	10%	9/1	8/1
4	MIGHTY KAI	10%	9/1	6/1
6	KEEP MOVIN' ON	9%	10/1	8/1
1	DURAN	8%	12/1	12/1
9	TARIFF	6%	15/1	12/1
3	SWAGGISH	6%	15/1	12/1

R5Scramble4Looks Like N Angel18%9/27/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pace10 going

A full field of ten. Nothing separates the top two by more than 1.8 points. We make the top one 18% against the board's 18%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	LOOKS LIKE N ANGEL	18%	9/2	7/2
6	ROSA'S MIRACLE	16%	11/2	4/1
3	TIJUANA MONEY	15%	6/1	4/1
5	ON BROADWAY	11%	8/1	6/1
7	SAUCED UP	9%	10/1	8/1
1	LESS PLEASE	9%	10/1	8/1
8	LIHUE PRINCESS	7%	12/1	12/1
10	STRIDENT MISS	6%	15/1	12/1
9	MANEE	5%	20/1	15/1
2	BEASTRO	4%	25/1	20/1

R6Lean13First Peace19%4/13/1

How it sets up

turfContested3 of 13 want the lead

Go forward7

Pace helps81012

Our top-rated horse in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer. Three of them want the lead. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 4 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
13	FIRST PEACE	19%	4/1	3/1
4	DETAIN	17%	5/1	7/2
12	TWIRLING POINT	11%	8/1	5/1
8	MAAZ	10%	9/1	4/1
7	CHARLIE'S TO BLAME	8%	11/1	4/1
3	WATSONVILLE	8%	12/1	8/1
6	GAME WARRIOR	6%	15/1	8/1
9	WAR AT SEA	5%	20/1	12/1
5	SCIPIO	4%	25/1	12/1
10	TEMPUS VOLAT	4%	25/1	15/1
1	SARWAR	3%	30/1	12/1
2	MAN AMONG MEN	3%	30/1	20/1
11	IRISH PROPHET	3%	30/1	12/1

R7Scramble5Redial15%11/24/1

How it sets up

dirtEven pace10 going

A full field of ten. The top two are effectively level on our numbers. We make the top one 15% against the board's 16%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	REDIAL	15%	11/2	4/1
3	HONDO CROUCH	15%	11/2	7/2
7	CURLY'S AGENDA	11%	8/1	8/1
1	FOMO JOE	11%	8/1	8/1
2	CIRCUIT BREAKER	11%	8/1	6/1
4	PACER	9%	10/1	8/1
9	DAY MAN	9%	10/1	8/1
8	SKYQUIST	7%	12/1	8/1
10	BIG REFLECTIONS	7%	15/1	12/1
6	AMADOR	4%	25/1	20/1

R9Scramble9Frank Bullitt17%5/14/1

How it sets up

dirtEven pace10 going

A full field of ten. Nothing separates the top two by more than 0.5 points. We make the top one 17% against the board's 16%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
9	FRANK BULLITT	17%	5/1	4/1
4	MATT AT FIVE	17%	5/1	3/1
5	MOMENT OF VALOR	12%	7/1	6/1
10	ANOTHER BULLEIT	12%	15/2	6/1
1	RODRIGOKNOWS	11%	8/1	6/1
2	CURLIN COMMAND	8%	12/1	12/1
8	ITS A CINCH	8%	12/1	8/1
6	GEEZER	6%	15/1	12/1
3	CLEVER CLOVER	6%	15/1	20/1
7	KERRY GOLD	5%	20/1	15/1

R10Lean9Ulysses Rose22%7/27/2

How it sets up

turfContested3 of 12 want the lead

Go forward378

Pace helps5612

Our top-rated horse in a maiden special weight. Three of them want the lead. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 5 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
9	ULYSSES ROSE	22%	7/2	7/2
5	PEACHY CANYON	19%	4/1	4/1
4	PENTLE BAY	12%	15/2	5/1
7	GOODIES	11%	8/1	5/1
12	NOVITA DOMINGA	7%	12/1	8/1
10	JET BLACK JEWEL	7%	15/1	12/1
6	HELEN'S TIME	6%	15/1	12/1
2	GOLDEN HOPE	6%	15/1	12/1
3	JASMINE	3%	30/1	15/1
1	GRANDMA MARY	2%	50/1	20/1
8	MOLLY E	2%	50/1	20/1
11	RABID RESPONSE	2%	50/1	30/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.2 · cfg b00cb21f · code 958a2d2e · takeout (DMR) win 15.43% / exacta 22.68% · card SHA-256 910012f7fdcb… · Scratches as of 12:24 PM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

This card was produced under the methodology version identified at publication. Detailed implementation parameters are proprietary and are no longer displayed. The original selections, probabilities, prices, timestamps, grading and integrity evidence are unchanged, and the locked card file below is the original. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash	`5c5738c552644939d1ceb632e1c41f9cf24fe7e272b6a9dc92b570056ac94153`
Original recorded lock hash	`910012f7fdcbbcbda9e4c3aef1bf72acc83bcef9e602cc1f7105de2f390646c3`
OpenTimestamps status	Bitcoin confirmed · block 958444

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