Saratoga · Thu Jul 16 · Race 2 · 1 mile dirt · Md Sp Wt

4 Irish Goodbye

Model

28%

our win probability

Fair

5/2

break-even at that probability

Board

5/2

morning line, 22% implied

Edge

+5.3

points over the morning line

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend; model 28% vs 22% morning-line implied (+5.3 pts)

The number that matters most is the last one

We will not take this horse shorter than 7/2. That is the point at which the price stops paying for the risk, and it is the only number here that still works if you disagree with us. Pick your own horse, work out the probability you would give it, and the same arithmetic tells you when to pass. A selection is an opinion. A minimum price is a method.

This was published before the race

The card carrying this play was hashed and published at 3:50 AM ET, before the first race went off. Its SHA-256 begins 970405a28133. Nothing on this page is edited after the fact, win or lose.

See this race in the full card · Every pick we have made, graded · How the model works