Saratoga, Thu Jul 16, 2026

9 races · published 3:50 AM ET · card locked

3 value plays today · 6 races we're passing

StatusCompleted · races run

First post1:10 PM ET

Scratch checkAs of 10:00 AM ET

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Thu Jul 16, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day

4IRISH GOODBYE

Race 2 · 1 mile dirt

28%model5/2fair5/2boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+5 pts over the board), the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number, so size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Flags 3 of 9 races

New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.

Today’s plays3 flags

RaceHorseModelBoardEdge

R24Irish Goodbye28%5/2+5 pts R67Jadorlinija15%6/1+4 pts R72English Law18%7/2+5 pts

Race 2 · 1 mile · dirt · Maiden special weightFlag

4IRISH GOODBYE

Model

Fair

Board

28%

5/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

The board and our fair price round to the same number (5/2), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show, it is +5.3 points of win probability, not a longer price.

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace7 going

No one horse is entitled to the lead. Nothing in here has shown real early speed on the figures the model reads.

It tops our own win number, 6.1 points clear of the next one, in a race nobody is clearly entitled to lead.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	IRISH GOODBYE ◀	28%	5/2	5/2
2	TERM PREMIUM	22%	7/2	2/1
6	IN FRONT RUNNER	12%	7/1	4/1
7	TUNING IN	11%	8/1	6/1
3	BUBSTER	10%	9/1	8/1
5	ROADIE	9%	10/1	6/1
1	BAKUTO	8%	12/1	15/1

Race 6 · 1 1/8 miles · dirt · Maiden special weightFlag

7JADORLINIJA

Model

Fair

Board

15%

11/2

6/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #2 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested3 of 8 want the lead

Go forward16

Pace helps347

Three of the 8 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile and an eighth on dirt in a maiden special weight should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It rates third on our own win number, 6.6 points behind the top, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

3 of the 8 want the front over a mile and an eighth on dirt, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	ATI GIRL	21%	7/2	5/2
6	PIPPA ADDS	17%	5/1	3/1
7	JADORLINIJA ◀	15%	11/2	6/1
5	MOONLIT	11%	8/1	9/2
8	RAGHBA	11%	8/1	6/1
3	FULL OF TACT	10%	9/1	15/1
1	MORNING MENACE	9%	10/1	6/1
2	PRAIRIE PRINCESS	6%	15/1	12/1

Race 7 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Claiming $35,000, non-winners of two lifetimeFlag

2ENGLISH LAW

Model

Fair

Board

18%

9/2

7/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested5 of 13 want the lead

Go forward581112

Pace helps4613

Five of the 13 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile and a sixteenth on turf in a $35,000 claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It tops our own win number, 1.9 points clear of the next one, and with 5 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

5 of the 13 want the front over a mile and a sixteenth on turf, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	ENGLISH LAW ◀	18%	9/2	7/2
13	I'M WORTHY	16%	11/2	2/1
7	CIRO DI MARZIO	14%	6/1	5/2
6	VINTAGE VINO	13%	13/2	4/1
8	SICILIAN DEFENSE	7%	12/1	9/2
12	CORVUS	6%	15/1	6/1
3	BOLD LOVE	6%	15/1	15/1
10	COACH CASE	6%	15/1	8/1
4	BLAME IT ON K J	4%	25/1	20/1
9	ROYAL BROWNE	3%	30/1	12/1
5	TAKE A STANCE	3%	30/1	15/1
11	CHIPS AND FISH	2%	50/1	30/1
1	ROSCOMMON	2%	50/1	30/1

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board

Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R	#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Edge	Why
R119 furlongs turfJKsrMmNnv75kEven pacepass
R1	6	FAMOUS FIGURE	26%	3/1	2/1	0	····
R1	3	CYBER NINJA	17%	9/2	7/2	0	····
R1	1	MR PERCY	17%	5/1	9/2	+3	1···
R1	2	MORNING MARCH	9%	10/1	8/1	0	····
R1	5	LYNCHES KNOCK	9%	10/1	8/1	0	····
R1	7	LORD FLINTSHIRE	9%	11/1	6/1	-3	2···
R1	4	DOCTOR LOVE	7%	12/1	10/1	0	····
R1	8	VINTAGE YEAR	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R21 mile dirtMaiden special weightEven pace1 flag
R2	4	IRISH GOODBYE	28%	5/2	5/2	+5	1···
R2	2	TERM PREMIUM	22%	7/2	2/1	-5	2···
R2	6	IN FRONT RUNNER	12%	7/1	4/1	-3	5···
R2	7	TUNING IN	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R2	3	BUBSTER	10%	9/1	8/1	+2	3···
R2	5	ROADIE	9%	10/1	6/1	-2	6···
R2	1	BAKUTO	8%	12/1	15/1	+3	4···
R37 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $16,000Even pacepass
R3	5	TIZMARKUS	23%	7/2	5/2	0	1···
R3	6	LUCKY DUDE	21%	4/1	3/1	+1	2···
R3	9	PRINCIP	13%	7/1	5/1	0	3···
R3	1	METATRON'S MUSE	10%	9/1	6/1	-1	5···
R3	8	THRILL OF IT	8%	11/1	10/1	+1	4···
R3	7	SCREAMING UNCLE	8%	11/1	8/1	-1	6···
R3	4	KUNSHAN BRIDGE	8%	12/1	8/1	-1	7···
R3	3	SIN NOMBRE	6%	15/1	12/1	0	8···
R3	2	SMILENSAYCHEESE	4%	25/1	20/1	0	9···
R41 mile turfMaiden claiming $100,000Even pacepass
R4	10	STREAM IT	14%	6/1	8/5	-4	6···
R4	1	ARABIAN POWER	12%	7/1	7/2	+2	1···
R4	9	FRANKLIN DELANO	11%	8/1	5/2	-2	7···
R4	11	DISPARATE IMPACT	10%	9/1	9/2	+1	4···
R4	6	CHESTER BOY	10%	9/1	3/1	-2	8···
R4	5	ASKED AND ANSWERED	9%	11/1	8/1	+3	2···
R4	2	ALGHERO	8%	11/1	8/1	+3	3···
R4	12	REGENERATION	8%	12/1	7/2	-3	10···
R4	7	MOUNT SOPRIS	7%	15/1	10/1	+2	5···
R4	8	MINOTAUR	5%	20/1	12/1	+1	9···
R4	4	HE'S A PIPER	4%	25/1	10/1	-1	11···
R4	3	ALLEY OOP	2%	50/1	20/1	0	12···
R55 1/2 furlongs turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R5	3	ALL STAR LEIGH	12%	15/2	7/2	0	····
R5	4	J'RAY'S JEWEL	11%	8/1	9/2	+1	1···
R5	1	BEACH LIFE	9%	10/1	5/1	0	2···
R5	2	SWEET LISA	8%	12/1	6/1	0	····
R5	9	SITTING ON A WIN	8%	12/1	6/1	0	····
R5	13	EXTRAVAGANZOO	7%	12/1	4/1	-4	6···
R5	14	BLESSEDNOTBOTHERED	7%	12/1	8/1	+1	3···
R5	5	SEISMIC ACTIVITY	6%	15/1	8/1	0	····
R5	6	I'M NOT KIDDING	6%	15/1	8/1	0	····
R5	12	MC CRUISER	6%	15/1	8/1	0	····
R5	8	CHAMPAGNE IN PARIS	4%	25/1	12/1	0	····
R5	16	THE PAPER LADY	4%	25/1	12/1	0	····
R5	15	SAINT DYMPHNA	3%	30/1	15/1	0	5···
R5	7	SWEET GRACE	3%	30/1	15/1	0	····
R5	10	TAPPIN MAGIC	3%	30/1	15/1	0	····
R5	11	MISS MONEY PANTS	3%	30/1	30/1	+1	4···
R61 1/8 miles dirtMaiden special weightContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag
R6	4	ATI GIRL	21%	7/2	5/2	-1	3▲··
R6	6	PIPPA ADDS	17%	5/1	3/1	-3	1▼··
R6	7	JADORLINIJA	15%	11/2	6/1	+4	2▲··
R6	5	MOONLIT	11%	8/1	9/2	-3	8···
R6	8	RAGHBA	11%	8/1	6/1	-1	5···
R6	3	FULL OF TACT	10%	9/1	15/1	+5	4▲··
R6	1	MORNING MENACE	9%	10/1	6/1	-2	6▼··
R6	2	PRAIRIE PRINCESS	6%	15/1	12/1	0	7···
R71 1/16 miles turfClaiming $35,000, non-winners of two lifetimeContested pace likely (5 early-speed types)1 flag
R7	2	ENGLISH LAW	18%	9/2	7/2	+5	1···
R7	13	I'M WORTHY	16%	11/2	2/1	-3	5▲··
R7	7	CIRO DI MARZIO	14%	6/1	5/2	-2	3···
R7	6	VINTAGE VINO	13%	13/2	4/1	+2	2▲··
R7	8	SICILIAN DEFENSE	7%	12/1	9/2	-3	7▼··
R7	12	CORVUS	6%	15/1	6/1	-2	8▼··
R7	3	BOLD LOVE	6%	15/1	15/1	+2	4···
R7	10	COACH CASE	6%	15/1	8/1	0	6···
R7	4	BLAME IT ON K J	4%	25/1	20/1	+1	9▲··
R7	9	ROYAL BROWNE	3%	30/1	12/1	-1	12···
R7	5	TAKE A STANCE	3%	30/1	15/1	0	11▼··
R7	11	CHIPS AND FISH	2%	50/1	30/1	+1	10▼··
R7	1	ROSCOMMON	2%	50/1	30/1	0	13···
R81 mile dirtOptional claiming $75,000Even pacepass
R8	7	PALACIOS	21%	7/2	5/2	-1	1···
R8	6	MAX MONEY	18%	9/2	7/2	0	2···
R8	5	GETHSEMANE	14%	6/1	4/1	-2	4···
R8	1	INTO THE LIGHT	12%	15/2	6/1	0	3···
R8	3	LIFE IS GRAVY	11%	8/1	6/1	0	5···
R8	4	EXHIBITION ONLY	10%	9/1	6/1	-1	7···
R8	8	MICANOPY	8%	12/1	15/1	+3	6···
R8	2	SWISS ARMY KNIFE	7%	15/1	12/1	+1	8···
R91 1/16 miles turfMaiden claiming $50,000Even pacepass
R9	6	ROASTED REDS	13%	13/2	3/1	-2	4···
R9	12	ISLAND CHARM	13%	7/1	5/1	+3	1···
R9	1	INTOTHEWILDERNESS	12%	7/1	4/1	+1	2···
R9	13	FORCE OF MISCHIEF	11%	8/1	9/2	+1	3···
R9	9	WHATTA WEEKEND	9%	11/1	5/1	-1	5···
R9	7	ZELENA	7%	12/1	6/1	-1	8···
R9	3	VALIANT DIVA	7%	15/1	8/1	0	6···
R9	15	NOT TAPPING	5%	20/1	10/1	0	10···
R9	10	TWO CLICKS	5%	20/1	10/1	-1	11···
R9	16	MY DEVINE ONE	3%	30/1	12/1	-1	15···
R9	11	MIA SOPHIA	3%	30/1	20/1	+1	9···
R9	5	READY ROSIE JANE	3%	30/1	30/1	+1	7···
R9	2	SKY LOW LOW	3%	30/1	20/1	0	12···
R9	8	MS NIKKI D	2%	50/1	30/1	0	13···
R9	14	SERENA FLY	2%	50/1	30/1	0	14···
R9	4	TANK GIRL	1%	99/1	50/1	0	16···

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 9 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet

R1Chalk6Famous Figure26%3/12/1

How it sets up

turfEven pace8 going

The board and our number agree in a starter allowance. We make the top one 26% against the board's 26%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	FAMOUS FIGURE	26%	3/1	2/1
3	CYBER NINJA	17%	9/2	7/2
1	MR PERCY	17%	5/1	9/2
2	MORNING MARCH	9%	10/1	8/1
5	LYNCHES KNOCK	9%	10/1	8/1
7	LORD FLINTSHIRE	9%	11/1	6/1
4	DOCTOR LOVE	7%	12/1	10/1
8	VINTAGE YEAR	6%	15/1	12/1

R3Chalk5Tizmarkus23%7/25/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pace9 going

The board and our number agree in a $16,000 optional claimer. We make the top one 23% against the board's 22%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	TIZMARKUS	23%	7/2	5/2
6	LUCKY DUDE	21%	4/1	3/1
9	PRINCIP	13%	7/1	5/1
1	METATRON'S MUSE	10%	9/1	6/1
8	THRILL OF IT	8%	11/1	10/1
7	SCREAMING UNCLE	8%	11/1	8/1
4	KUNSHAN BRIDGE	8%	12/1	8/1
3	SIN NOMBRE	6%	15/1	12/1
2	SMILENSAYCHEESE	4%	25/1	20/1

R4Scramble10Stream It14%6/18/5

How it sets up

turfEven pace12 going

A full field of twelve. Nothing separates the top two by more than 1.9 points. We make the top one 14% against the board's 19%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
10	STREAM IT	14%	6/1	8/5
1	ARABIAN POWER	12%	7/1	7/2
9	FRANKLIN DELANO	11%	8/1	5/2
11	DISPARATE IMPACT	10%	9/1	9/2
6	CHESTER BOY	10%	9/1	3/1
5	ASKED AND ANSWERED	9%	11/1	8/1
2	ALGHERO	8%	11/1	8/1
12	REGENERATION	8%	12/1	7/2
7	MOUNT SOPRIS	7%	15/1	10/1
8	MINOTAUR	5%	20/1	12/1
4	HE'S A PIPER	4%	25/1	10/1
3	ALLEY OOP	2%	50/1	20/1

R5Scramble3All Star Leigh12%15/27/2

How it sets up

turfEven pace16 going

A full field of 16. Nothing separates the top two by more than 1.2 points. We make the top one 12% against the board's 12%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	ALL STAR LEIGH	12%	15/2	7/2
4	J'RAY'S JEWEL	11%	8/1	9/2
1	BEACH LIFE	9%	10/1	5/1
2	SWEET LISA	8%	12/1	6/1
9	SITTING ON A WIN	8%	12/1	6/1
13	EXTRAVAGANZOO	7%	12/1	4/1
14	BLESSEDNOTBOTHERED	7%	12/1	8/1
5	SEISMIC ACTIVITY	6%	15/1	8/1
6	I'M NOT KIDDING	6%	15/1	8/1
12	MC CRUISER	6%	15/1	8/1
8	CHAMPAGNE IN PARIS	4%	25/1	12/1
16	THE PAPER LADY	4%	25/1	12/1
15	SAINT DYMPHNA	3%	30/1	15/1
7	SWEET GRACE	3%	30/1	15/1
10	TAPPIN MAGIC	3%	30/1	15/1
11	MISS MONEY PANTS	3%	30/1	30/1

R8Chalk7Palacios21%7/25/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pace8 going

The board and our number agree in a $75,000 optional claimer. We make the top one 21% against the board's 22%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
7	PALACIOS	21%	7/2	5/2
6	MAX MONEY	18%	9/2	7/2
5	GETHSEMANE	14%	6/1	4/1
1	INTO THE LIGHT	12%	15/2	6/1
3	LIFE IS GRAVY	11%	8/1	6/1
4	EXHIBITION ONLY	10%	9/1	6/1
8	MICANOPY	8%	12/1	15/1
2	SWISS ARMY KNIFE	7%	15/1	12/1

R9Scramble6Roasted Reds13%13/23/1

How it sets up

turfEven pace16 going

A full field of 16. The top two are effectively level on our numbers. We make the top one 13% against the board's 15%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	ROASTED REDS	13%	13/2	3/1
12	ISLAND CHARM	13%	7/1	5/1
1	INTOTHEWILDERNESS	12%	7/1	4/1
13	FORCE OF MISCHIEF	11%	8/1	9/2
9	WHATTA WEEKEND	9%	11/1	5/1
7	ZELENA	7%	12/1	6/1
3	VALIANT DIVA	7%	15/1	8/1
15	NOT TAPPING	5%	20/1	10/1
10	TWO CLICKS	5%	20/1	10/1
16	MY DEVINE ONE	3%	30/1	12/1
11	MIA SOPHIA	3%	30/1	20/1
5	READY ROSIE JANE	3%	30/1	30/1
2	SKY LOW LOW	3%	30/1	20/1
8	MS NIKKI D	2%	50/1	30/1
14	SERENA FLY	2%	50/1	30/1
4	TANK GIRL	1%	99/1	50/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.1 · cfg c8795908 · code 02e4715c · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 970405a28133… · Scratches as of 10:00 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

This card was produced under the methodology version identified at publication. Detailed implementation parameters are proprietary and are no longer displayed. The original selections, probabilities, prices, timestamps, grading and integrity evidence are unchanged, and the locked card file below is the original. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash	`91f2264a9bd2786db0e8a8e532c2fd1653f0c4b0b08884d7795ab9e2e79228b3`
Original recorded lock hash	`970405a2813327fc1a188298ce40db3bbe0420e64b3207e037d0bef9b04e40a8`
OpenTimestamps status	Bitcoin confirmed · block 958263

This card was generated on Windows. Its original lock hash was calculated from CRLF-formatted bytes before Git stored the same JSON with LF line endings. The selections and JSON values are unchanged. Use the downloadable artifact hash above to verify the public file. Full correction record · chc-2026-07-16-sar-card-01.