Saratoga & Del Mar · 2026 · Model v0-heuristic-1.4 the anti-tout · locked before post, every pick graded
EdgeCardHQ

Saratoga, Wed Sep 2, 2026

1 value play today · 8 races we're passing
StatusLocked before post
First post1:10 PM ET
Scratch checkChecked · 12:59 PM ET
Edge of the Day
7PAUILLAC
Race 3 · 1 3/16 miles turf
18%model9/2fair5/1boardWINpaid at the close
Our biggest edge on the card today (+5 pts over the board), the price may move either way into post; you’re paid the close. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.
Today at SaratogaChance Rain Showers, 75°F, wind 8 mph · rain 91%, off-track / soft-turf riskNWS forecast
Also on TwinSpires

Today’s card runs on TwinSpires as Edge Card Plays. Edge Card is an independent publication and is not a TwinSpires product; the plays and the record are the same ones published here.

Bet these plays at TwinSpires
Flags 1 of 9 races
Race 3 · 1 3/16 miles · turf · Maiden special weightFlagShare
7PAUILLAC
Model
Fair
Board
18%
9/2
5/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more9/2 break-even5/1 board
Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.
Ranks #2 in our power figure blend.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Even pace2 of 8 show early speed, short of contested

No one horse is entitled to the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

It rates second on our own win number, 10.9 points behind the top.

And the day matters here: rain risk (91%) on a turf race. If it comes off the grass or the course goes soft, this read can shift. We don’t price going in advance.

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
8PAY THE PIPER29%5/22/120/55·10d
7PAUILLAC 18%9/25/111/54·5d
6DONNADOYAWANNA16%5/13/15/16·9d
5PROTECT AND DEFEND14%13/27/22/46·9d
2DUTY9%10/18/15/6·28d
4DAUNTING7%15/115/116/37·17d
3EVENLY ALERT6%15/18/15/7·17d
1GHOST DRIVER1%99/130/117/31·31d
What to know about each race today
R119 furlongs turfGrade 1 stakes
  • 4CoutachDan Nevin back aboard, a winner on this horse five starts back
  • 6Little Trilbywent off at 5/2 last time and finished 4th
  • 7Sweet WillBernard Dalton is here for this one ride, the first of the meet
R27 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $110,000
  • 1El Grande OManuel Franco back aboard, a winner on this horse two starts back
  • 5PentathlonSamuel Marin back aboard, a winner on this horse four starts back
R31 3/16 miles turfMaiden special weight

3 of the 8 add blinkers

3 of the 8 have never raced on turf

  • 3Evenly Alertbottom third of this field on turf breeding · claimed last time out
  • 1Ghost Driverbottom third of this field on turf breeding
  • 7Pauillactop third of this field on turf breeding
  • 8Pay The Piperwent off at 8/5 last time and finished 4th
R46 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $110,000
  • 1Kappa KappaJ R Velazquez back aboard, a winner on this horse five starts back
  • 4With The AngelsJose Lezcano back aboard, a winner on this horse four starts back
  • 5My Magic WandManuel Franco back aboard, a winner on this horse two starts back
  • 6Strong StateK Carmouche back aboard, a winner on this horse five starts back
R51 mile dirtClaiming $20,000, non-winners of two lifetime
  • 1Dia Por Diawent off at 9/5 last time and finished 5th · first start at a mile or longer · bottom third of this field on breeding for the trip · first start in 8 months · Jose Lezcano back aboard, a winner on this horse two starts back
  • 4Margarita Mollywent off at 6/5 last time and finished 6th · K Carmouche back aboard, a winner on this horse five starts back · claimed last time out
  • 2Dat Dares Rightfirst start at a mile or longer · bottom third of this field on breeding for the trip
  • 9Queen Sallywent off at 2/1 last time and finished 5th · new barn since the last start, now with James W Ferraro
  • 3Amelia's Echodrops from $40,000 to $20,000 off a 5th
  • and 2 more with something to note
R61 1/16 miles turfMaiden optional claiming $75,000
  • 6Bet Boldfirst start on turf · first start at a mile or longer · bottom third of this field on turf breeding
  • 5George St.first start on turf · first start at a mile or longer
R75 1/2 furlongs turfMaiden special weight
  • 2Wildest Dreamsfirst start on turf · top third of this field on turf breeding
  • 4Juneaufirst start on turf · top third of this field on turf breeding
R86 1/2 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $45,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starter
  • 1Kay Cupwent off at 3/2 last time and finished 4th · first start in 8 months
  • 5Braverthanubelievefirst start in 9 months · new barn since the last start, now with Lauren Robson
  • 4Sweetest Princessfirst start under a mile
  • 9Rina's Revengefirst-time Lasix
R91 1/16 miles turfClaiming $35,000, non-winners of two lifetime

3 of the 10 were claimed last time out

  • 10Mirageup from $20,000 to $35,000 off a 4th · went off at 5/2 last time and finished 4th · first start on turf
  • 1Lexington Pikeup from $20,000 to $35,000 off a 5th
  • 2Blue PillPino Favinho Villa back aboard, a winner on this horse five starts back
  • 4T V Channelup from $16,000 to $35,000 off a win

Facts about the race, not predictions. A class move is shown with the finish it came off so you can judge it; we do not claim any of these wins, and only the flagged win bets above are graded on the record.

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board
Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R#HorseModelFairBoardEdgeRankWhyWorks
R119 furlongs turfGrade 1 stakesEven pacepass
R12SMART UNCLE31%2/19/5+31B
R11MR PERCY20%4/14/1+52B
R15L'IMPERATOR13%13/23/1-7312/24·17d
R16LITTLE TRILBY11%8/16/10
R13SIENNOIS11%8/16/101/10·33d
R14COUTACH9%11/18/10
R17SWEET WILL5%20/115/10BW71/80·38d
R27 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $110,000Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R22WHATCHATALKINABOUT22%7/22/1-55B1/6·5d
R24BE YOU20%4/15/2-2410/61·6d
R26OVER AND OLLIE18%9/27/20110/22·15d
R23ACOUSTIC AVE15%11/29/2+123/31·46d
R21EL GRANDE O14%6/18/1+63W3/114·11d
R25PENTATHLON11%8/16/106W1/12·7d
R31 3/16 miles turfMaiden special weightEven pace1 flag
R38PAY THE PIPER29%5/22/1+31B20/55·10d
R37PAUILLAC18%9/25/1+5211/54·5d
R36DONNADOYAWANNA16%5/13/1-335/16·9d
R35PROTECT AND DEFEND14%13/27/2-44W2/46·9d
R32DUTY9%10/18/1055/6·28d
R34DAUNTING7%15/115/1+2616/37·17d
R33EVENLY ALERT6%15/18/1-275/7·17d
R31GHOST DRIVER1%99/130/1-28B17/31·31d
R46 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $110,000Contested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass
R43SENZA PAROLE36%9/56/5+11B7/66·6d
R46STRONG STATE16%11/27/2-25W11/114·9d
R44WITH THE ANGELS15%11/29/2+138/12·11d
R41KAPPA KAPPA14%6/19/20219/151·17d
R45MY MAGIC WAND11%8/16/104W1/15·7d
R42BEYOND BELIEF8%11/110/1+161/8·11d
R51 mile dirtClaiming $20,000, non-winners of two lifetimeContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass
R55TWIRLY18%9/24/1+211/8·5d
R53AMELIA'S ECHO14%6/17/2-3312/59·6d
R51DIA POR DIA13%13/24/1-35B13/15·11d
R54MARGARITA MOLLY12%15/25/1-12B5/33·12d
R58SUCCESSFUL AGENDA12%15/26/104B4/11·7d
R510DOPPIO ESPRESSO8%11/112/1+2612/25·7d
R56HERE'SYOURTROUBLE7%15/18/1-298/40·7d
R52DAT DARES RIGHT6%15/115/1+17B11/22·17d
R59QUEEN SALLY5%20/115/10103/6·7d
R57ROSE LISA5%20/130/1+285/12·43d
R61 1/16 miles turfMaiden optional claiming $75,000Even pacepass
R63BERTA'S STITCH27%5/22/1+21W4/59·6d
R64INCLUSIVITY16%5/13/1-32B2/2·9d
R65GEORGE ST.10%9/16/1-14B3/4·10d
R69EPIC PRAYER9%11/18/1013/34·12d
R610MOTORCYCLE COP8%11/112/1+236/17·7d
R68GUS'S BOY7%12/110/102/10·9d
R61NO LAW6%15/120/1+25B5/17·7d
R611TONEACITY5%20/115/107/8·7d
R62MO COFFEE5%20/115/109/13·11d
R67EXECUTIVE FORCE5%20/115/107/7·12d
R66BET BOLD2%30/120/1-16BW1/22·9d
R75 1/2 furlongs turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R71TAPPIN MAGIC26%3/19/5-216/7·7d
R74JUNEAU19%9/24/1+323/20·11d
R78SKIDMORE13%13/25/104/10·12d
R73JOAN'S FAULT9%10/18/10W2/30·11d
R79GOLD FASHIONED9%11/18/104/27·10d
R710COMETS CHOICE7%12/112/1+1318/22·8d
R72WILDEST DREAMS5%20/110/1-245/14·7d
R77FROSTY BLAZE5%20/115/10W2/29·8d
R76SNAPPER TIME5%20/115/109/68·9d
R75NIX IN TWENTYSIX2%30/130/10B16/59·10d
R86 1/2 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $45,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (5 early-speed types)pass
R85BRAVERTHANUBELIEVE19%9/22/1-74W1/27·9d
R81KAY CUP14%6/14/1-135/23·11d
R82GRACE AND GRIT14%13/26/1+3216/16·6d
R83QUEENS CAT13%13/26/1+2118/36·7d
R84SWEETEST PRINCESS11%8/18/1+35B3/52·28d
R86NINA KAY11%8/18/1+26B5/36·14d
R89RINA'S REVENGE7%12/110/107W3/30·7d
R87IRISH FORTUNE6%15/110/1-18W3/98·11d
R88MISCHIEF LADY5%20/115/1094/10·6d
R91 1/16 miles turfClaiming $35,000, non-winners of two lifetimeContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R99I CAN SEE THAT20%4/13/1+11W3/55·7d
R97PRINTER'S ALLEY20%4/17/2+325/27·54d
R98VINTAGE VINO13%7/19/2-234/9·6d
R96ROYAL BROWNE12%15/24/1-45W35/36·7d
R910MIRAGE11%8/110/1+345/31·10d
R94T V CHANNEL7%15/18/1-283/7·12d
R95FREE REFILLS6%15/115/1+161/6·7d
R91LEXINGTON PIKE5%20/120/1+172/5·26d
R92BLUE PILL4%25/120/1091/2·6d
R93OVERSEER3%30/115/1-210B4/24·26d

Rank is our power-figure blend, 1 is best. Why reads left to right: whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, and BLANK means we have nothing to say, so only rows with signal carry a mark. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 9 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet
R1Lean2Smart Uncle31%2/19/5
How it sets up
turfEven pacenone of the 7 shows early speed

Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. Nothing in here has shown real early speed on the figures the model reads.

Our top-rated horse in a Grade 1. We make the top one 31% against the board's 28%. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
2SMART UNCLE31%2/19/5
1MR PERCY20%4/14/1
5L'IMPERATOR13%13/23/112/24·17d
6LITTLE TRILBY11%8/16/1
3SIENNOIS11%8/16/11/10·33d
4COUTACH9%11/18/1
7SWEET WILL5%20/115/171/80·38d
R2Chalk2Whatchatalkinabout22%7/22/1
How it sets up
dirtContested3 of 6 want the lead
Go forward36
Pace helps245

Three of the 6 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over seven furlongs on dirt in a $110,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The board and our number agree in a $110,000 allowance optional claimer. Three of them want the lead. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
2WHATCHATALKINABOUT22%7/22/11/6·5d
4BE YOU20%4/15/210/61·6d
6OVER AND OLLIE18%9/27/210/22·15d
3ACOUSTIC AVE15%11/29/23/31·46d
1EL GRANDE O14%6/18/13/114·11d
5PENTATHLON11%8/16/11/12·7d
R4Chalk3Senza Parole36%9/56/5
How it sets up
dirtContested4 of 6 want the lead
Go forward15
Pace helps236

Four of the 6 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over six furlongs on dirt in a $110,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The board and our number agree in a $110,000 allowance optional claimer. Four horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
3SENZA PAROLE36%9/56/57/66·6d
6STRONG STATE16%11/27/211/114·9d
4WITH THE ANGELS15%11/29/28/12·11d
1KAPPA KAPPA14%6/19/219/151·17d
5MY MAGIC WAND11%8/16/11/15·7d
2BEYOND BELIEF8%11/110/11/8·11d
R5Lean5Twirly18%9/24/1
How it sets up
dirtContested4 of 10 want the lead
Go forward467
Pace helps15

Four of the 10 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile on dirt in a $20,000 claimer should be contested rather than soft.

Our top-rated horse in a $20,000 claimer. Four horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 2 points.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
5TWIRLY18%9/24/11/8·5d
3AMELIA'S ECHO14%6/17/212/59·6d
1DIA POR DIA13%13/24/113/15·11d
4MARGARITA MOLLY12%15/25/15/33·12d
8SUCCESSFUL AGENDA12%15/26/14/11·7d
10DOPPIO ESPRESSO8%11/112/112/25·7d
6HERE'SYOURTROUBLE7%15/18/18/40·7d
2DAT DARES RIGHT6%15/115/111/22·17d
9QUEEN SALLY5%20/115/13/6·7d
7ROSE LISA5%20/130/15/12·43d
R6Chalk3Berta's Stitch27%5/22/1
How it sets up
turfEven pacenone of the 11 shows early speed

No runner here is entitled to the lead on the early figures. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Nothing in here has shown real early speed on the figures the model reads.

The board and our number agree in a $75,000 maiden optional claimer. A full field of eleven.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
3BERTA'S STITCH27%5/22/14/59·6d
4INCLUSIVITY16%5/13/12/2·9d
5GEORGE ST.10%9/16/13/4·10d
9EPIC PRAYER9%11/18/113/34·12d
10MOTORCYCLE COP8%11/112/16/17·7d
8GUS'S BOY7%12/110/12/10·9d
1NO LAW6%15/120/15/17·7d
11TONEACITY5%20/115/17/8·7d
2MO COFFEE5%20/115/19/13·11d
7EXECUTIVE FORCE5%20/115/17/7·12d
6BET BOLD2%30/120/11/22·9d
R7Chalk1Tappin Magic26%3/19/5
How it sets up
turfEven pacenone of the 10 shows early speed

Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Nothing in here has shown real early speed on the figures the model reads.

The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. A full field of ten.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
1TAPPIN MAGIC26%3/19/56/7·7d
4JUNEAU19%9/24/13/20·11d
8SKIDMORE13%13/25/14/10·12d
3JOAN'S FAULT9%10/18/12/30·11d
9GOLD FASHIONED9%11/18/14/27·10d
10COMETS CHOICE7%12/112/118/22·8d
2WILDEST DREAMS5%20/110/15/14·7d
7FROSTY BLAZE5%20/115/12/29·8d
6SNAPPER TIME5%20/115/19/68·9d
5NIX IN TWENTYSIX2%30/130/116/59·10d
R8Chalk5Braverthanubelieve19%9/22/1
How it sets up
dirtContested5 of 9 want the lead
Go forward3478
Pace helps25

Five of the 9 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over six and a half furlongs on dirt in a $45,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The board and our number agree in a $45,000 allowance optional claimer. Five horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. We make the favourite, #5 BRAVERTHANUBELIEVE, 19% against the board's 26%, shorter than we think it should be. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
5BRAVERTHANUBELIEVE19%9/22/11/27·9d
1KAY CUP14%6/14/15/23·11d
2GRACE AND GRIT14%13/26/116/16·6d
3QUEENS CAT13%13/26/118/36·7d
4SWEETEST PRINCESS11%8/18/13/52·28d
6NINA KAY11%8/18/15/36·14d
9RINA'S REVENGE7%12/110/13/30·7d
7IRISH FORTUNE6%15/110/13/98·11d
8MISCHIEF LADY5%20/115/14/10·6d
R9Chalk9I Can See That20%4/13/1
How it sets up
turfContested3 of 10 want the lead
Go forward4
Pace helps210

Three of the 10 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile and a sixteenth on turf in a $35,000 claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The board and our number agree in a $35,000 claimer. Three of them want the lead.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
9I CAN SEE THAT20%4/13/13/55·7d
7PRINTER'S ALLEY20%4/17/25/27·54d
8VINTAGE VINO13%7/19/24/9·6d
6ROYAL BROWNE12%15/24/135/36·7d
10MIRAGE11%8/110/15/31·10d
4T V CHANNEL7%15/18/13/7·12d
5FREE REFILLS6%15/115/11/6·7d
1LEXINGTON PIKE5%20/120/12/5·26d
2BLUE PILL4%25/120/11/2·6d
3OVERSEER3%30/115/14/24·26d
Public record51–139flags, W–L-35.3uflat-$2-9.3%flat-bet ROI, n=190-33% to +17%95% range, read this oneevery call hash-stamped before post →

We lose most single flags. That’s expected. The edge is price: when we’re right, the board paid more than fair. Our 30% picks win about 30% (see the calibration curve), and every call is graded against the closing odds, wins and losses.

No set price. On the tote you’re paid the closing odds, so the edge isn’t a line you beat early. It’s the gap between our fair number and where the crowd lands. We grade each flag against the actual close.

Our last miss: DMR R10 Call Me Sir, flagged at 5/1, didn’t win, and it is on the record like every call.

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 70a95150 · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 cc6160eeb005… · Scratch status checked at 12:59 PM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

Edge Card runs a proprietary pre-race probability process: market expectations combined with licensed past-performance, pace, field-composition and connections information, evaluated within each race. Exact implementation details are not published. Structured analysis, not a proven edge; tracked publicly either way. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

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