Saratoga, Thu Aug 20, 2026

8 races · published 11:03 AM ET · card locked

4 value plays today · 5 races we're passing

StatusCompleted · races run

First post1:10 PM ET

Scratch checkChecked · 10:06 AM ET

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Thu Aug 20, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day

3A LITTLE AT FIRST

Race 7 · 1 mile turf

35%model9/5fair3/1boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+12 pts over the board), the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number, so size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Today at SaratogaMostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Rain Showers, 77°F, wind 2 to 6 mph · rain 17%, no off-track flagNWS forecast

Flags 4 of 8 races

New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.

Today’s plays4 flags

RaceHorseModelBoardEdge

R16Oath52%9/5+8 pts R51Himothy16%10/1+8 pts R73A Little At First35%3/1+12 pts R76Spirit Of New York20%6/1+7 pts

Race 1 · 1 mile · dirt · Maiden claiming $20,000Flag

6OATH

Model

Fair

Board

52%

1/1

9/5

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend; projects as the lone early speed. Barn angle strong here

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Lone speedone gets loose on the lead, 4 going

Alone on the lead6

One of the 4 looks alone on the lead, clear of the field on the early figures over a mile on dirt, with nothing else in here entitled to go with it.

The model’s read ▾

OATH is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

It tops our own win number, 32.9 points clear of the next one, in a race where one of them looks like getting loose on the lead.

In a field of 4 it profiles as the lone speed over a mile on dirt, likely uncontested on the front end, and we bumped it for that (×1.15).

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	OATH ◀	52%	1/1	9/5
7	READY ROSIE JANE	19%	9/2	4/1
2	ESSENCE L VEE	15%	11/2	10/1
1	SPIRIT FORWARD	14%	6/1	5/1

Race 5 · 5 1/2 furlongs · turf · Maiden claiming $55,000Flag

1HIMOTHY

Model

Fair

Board

16%

5/1

10/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price should hold A long board price the late money tends to leave alone, so you should still get a strong number at post, the fullest version of the edge.

Ranks #2 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace7 going

Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

It rates third on our own win number, 20.7 points behind the top.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
7	DEPORTED	37%	9/5	8/5
5	ESCAPADES	31%	2/1	2/1
1	HIMOTHY ◀	16%	5/1	10/1
3	OLIGARCH	9%	10/1	5/1
6	SUNSHINE BOBALOU	5%	20/1	30/1
8	NOD TO TRAN	2%	50/1	20/1
2	YAHEARMENOW	1%	99/1	50/1

Race 7 · 1 mile · turf · Stakes, $150,000 purseFlag

3A LITTLE AT FIRST

Model

Fair

Board

35%

9/5

3/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace7 going

No one horse is entitled to the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It tops our own win number, 14.1 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	A LITTLE AT FIRST ◀	35%	9/5	3/1
6	SPIRIT OF NEW YORK	20%	4/1	6/1
1	CHUMMERS	18%	9/2	3/1
7	JAXER	15%	11/2	5/2
5	WIT STORM	5%	20/1	12/1
2	BIG FROSTY	4%	25/1	20/1
4	MISSIONATTHEGLEN	2%	50/1	30/1

Race 7 · 1 mile · turf · Stakes, $150,000 purseFlag

6SPIRIT OF NEW YORK

Model

Fair

Board

20%

4/1

6/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #2 in our power figure blend. Barn angle strong here

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace7 going

Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

It rates second on our own win number, 14.1 points behind the top.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	A LITTLE AT FIRST	35%	9/5	3/1
6	SPIRIT OF NEW YORK ◀	20%	4/1	6/1
1	CHUMMERS	18%	9/2	3/1
7	JAXER	15%	11/2	5/2
5	WIT STORM	5%	20/1	12/1
2	BIG FROSTY	4%	25/1	20/1
4	MISSIONATTHEGLEN	2%	50/1	30/1

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board

Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R	#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Edge	Why
R11 mile dirtMaiden claiming $20,000Lone speed1 flag
R1	6	OATH	52%	1/1	9/5	+8	1▲B·
R1	7	READY ROSIE JANE	19%	9/2	4/1	-6	3···
R1	2	ESSENCE L VEE	15%	11/2	10/1	+4	2···
R1	1	SPIRIT FORWARD	14%	6/1	5/1	-6	4·B·
R25 1/2 furlongs turfClaiming $40,000, non-winners of two lifetimeEven pacepass
R2	8	TAMINO	22%	7/2	7/2	+4	1···
R2	6	LIGHT FANTASTIC	20%	4/1	3/1	0	3·B·
R2	3	INTO DIAMONDS	18%	9/2	9/2	+4	2···
R2	4	ARMET	15%	11/2	4/1	-1	4·B·
R2	7	HONG KONG PHOOEY	8%	11/1	8/1	-1	6···
R2	5	TWO DUCKS	8%	12/1	10/1	+1	5·B·
R2	1	NIGHT	6%	15/1	5/1	-7	8·B·
R2	2	OUT OF THE FOG	4%	25/1	20/1	0	7···
R36 furlongs dirtMaiden claiming $35,000Even pacepass
R3	3	MAX O NIDAS	32%	2/1	8/5	0	····
R3	6	MADDENBLEU	24%	3/1	5/2	0	····
R3	4	PARKRIDGE	16%	11/2	4/1	-1	1·B·
R3	1	MEDIEVAL	13%	7/1	6/1	+1	2···
R3	2	BOER WAR	9%	10/1	8/1	0	····
R3	7	LOAN RANGER	6%	15/1	15/1	0	3·B·
R46 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R4	4	CASH BURN	30%	5/2	8/5	0	····
R4	2	DRY DRASTIC	26%	3/1	2/1	0	····
R4	5	SECRET CONNECTION	12%	15/2	5/1	-1	1···
R4	3	CHIC IN MOTION	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R4	1	EARLY RETURNS	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R4	6	EARLY AND OFTEN	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	2·B·
R55 1/2 furlongs turfMaiden claiming $55,000Even pace1 flag
R5	7	DEPORTED	37%	9/5	8/5	+1	··B·
R5	5	ESCAPADES	31%	2/1	2/1	0	1·B·
R5	1	HIMOTHY	16%	5/1	10/1	+8	2···
R5	3	OLIGARCH	9%	10/1	5/1	-7	3·B·
R5	6	SUNSHINE BOBALOU	5%	20/1	30/1	+2	4·B·
R5	8	NOD TO TRAN	2%	50/1	20/1	-2	5·B·
R5	2	YAHEARMENOW	1%	99/1	50/1	-1	6···
R61 mile dirtOptional claiming $45,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R6	2	VALTELLINA	43%	6/5	1/1	+4	1▲··
R6	1	BOXED WINE	15%	11/2	9/2	+1	2▲··
R6	6	PRINCESS BECCA	12%	7/1	7/2	-5	4···
R6	3	SWEETEST PRINCESS	11%	15/2	5/1	-2	5·B·
R6	4	HELLO BEAUTY	9%	10/1	8/1	+1	3···
R6	5	GIANT AT WORK	9%	11/1	10/1	+1	6▲··
R71 mile turfStakes, $150,000 purseEven pace2 flags
R7	3	A LITTLE AT FIRST	35%	9/5	3/1	+12	1···
R7	6	SPIRIT OF NEW YORK	20%	4/1	6/1	+7	2·B·
R7	1	CHUMMERS	18%	9/2	3/1	-5	3···
R7	7	JAXER	15%	11/2	5/2	-11	4···
R7	5	WIT STORM	5%	20/1	12/1	-2	5·B·
R7	2	BIG FROSTY	4%	25/1	20/1	-1	6···
R7	4	MISSIONATTHEGLEN	2%	50/1	30/1	-1	7···
R85 1/2 furlongs turfOptional claiming $45,000Contested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass
R8	2	SHE'S GOT WILL	28%	5/2	3/1	+5	1▲B·
R8	9	FROM SCRATCH	16%	11/2	5/1	0	2▼··
R8	8	RIVER SEINE	15%	6/1	7/2	-6	3▼··
R8	4	RIVER TAY	11%	15/2	10/1	+3	4▲··
R8	5	JUST ADD WATER	10%	9/1	10/1	+1	6···
R8	6	GRACIE'S DELIGHT	9%	10/1	8/1	-1	5▼··
R8	3	MIDNIGHTLOVEAFFAIR	8%	12/1	10/1	-1	7···
R8	7	QUICK POWER NAP	3%	30/1	20/1	-1	8·B·

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 8 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet

R2Lean8Tamino22%7/27/2

How it sets up

turfEven pace8 going

Our top-rated horse in a $40,000 claimer. We make the top one 22% against the board's 17%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 4 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
8	TAMINO	22%	7/2	7/2
6	LIGHT FANTASTIC	20%	4/1	3/1
3	INTO DIAMONDS	18%	9/2	9/2
4	ARMET	15%	11/2	4/1
7	HONG KONG PHOOEY	8%	11/1	8/1
5	TWO DUCKS	8%	12/1	10/1
1	NIGHT	6%	15/1	5/1
2	OUT OF THE FOG	4%	25/1	20/1

R3Chalk3Max O Nidas32%2/18/5

How it sets up

dirtEven pace6 going

The board and our number agree in a $35,000 maiden claimer. We make the top one 32% against the board's 32%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	MAX O NIDAS	32%	2/1	8/5
6	MADDENBLEU	24%	3/1	5/2
4	PARKRIDGE	16%	11/2	4/1
1	MEDIEVAL	13%	7/1	6/1
2	BOER WAR	9%	10/1	8/1
7	LOAN RANGER	6%	15/1	15/1

R4Chalk4Cash Burn30%5/28/5

How it sets up

dirtEven pace6 going

The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 30% against the board's 30%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	CASH BURN	30%	5/2	8/5
2	DRY DRASTIC	26%	3/1	2/1
5	SECRET CONNECTION	12%	15/2	5/1
3	CHIC IN MOTION	11%	8/1	6/1
1	EARLY RETURNS	11%	8/1	6/1
6	EARLY AND OFTEN	10%	9/1	8/1

R6Lean2Valtellina43%6/51/1

How it sets up

dirtContested3 of 6 want the lead

Pace helps125

Our top-rated horse in a $45,000 allowance optional claimer. Three of them want the lead. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 4 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	VALTELLINA	43%	6/5	1/1
1	BOXED WINE	15%	11/2	9/2
6	PRINCESS BECCA	12%	7/1	7/2
3	SWEETEST PRINCESS	11%	15/2	5/1
4	HELLO BEAUTY	9%	10/1	8/1
5	GIANT AT WORK	9%	11/1	10/1

R8Lean2She's Got Will28%5/23/1

How it sets up

turfContested4 of 8 want the lead

Go forward689

Pace helps24

Our top-rated horse in a $45,000 optional claimer. Four horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 5 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	SHE'S GOT WILL	28%	5/2	3/1
9	FROM SCRATCH	16%	11/2	5/1
8	RIVER SEINE	15%	6/1	7/2
4	RIVER TAY	11%	15/2	10/1
5	JUST ADD WATER	10%	9/1	10/1
6	GRACIE'S DELIGHT	9%	10/1	8/1
3	MIDNIGHTLOVEAFFAIR	8%	12/1	10/1
7	QUICK POWER NAP	3%	30/1	20/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code d22ad90a · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 caadf63dc0d6… · Scratch status checked at 10:06 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

Edge Card runs a proprietary pre-race probability process: market expectations combined with licensed past-performance, pace, field-composition and connections information, evaluated within each race. Exact implementation details are not published. Structured analysis, not a proven edge; tracked publicly either way. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash	`caadf63dc0d61a6a69664a7df2865ae8fc204dfd0ebb17b75ee843b4f6d776bd`
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