Saratoga, Wed Aug 19, 2026

8 races · published 10:55 AM ET · card locked

4 value plays today · 4 races we're passing

StatusCompleted · races run

First post1:10 PM ET

Scratch checkChecked · 10:33 AM ET

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Wed Aug 19, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day

5CELTIC DAWN

Race 7 · 1 mile turf

35%model9/5fair3/1boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+15 pts over the board), the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number, so size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Today at SaratogaMostly Sunny, 83°F, wind 2 to 6 mph · rain 12%, no off-track flagNWS forecast

Flags 4 of 8 races

New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.

Today’s plays4 flags

RaceHorseModelBoardEdge

R27Concurrently24%7/2+6 pts R51Hot Off The Beach26%4/1+9 pts R75Celtic Dawn35%3/1+15 pts R83Paula's Choice35%5/2+13 pts

Likely bet down All 4 flags today. A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Race 2 · 1 mile · dirt · Optional claiming $80,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterFlag

7CONCURRENTLY

Model

Fair

Board

24%

7/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

The board and our fair price round to the same number (7/2), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show, it is +6.0 points of win probability, not a longer price.

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace7 going

No one horse is entitled to the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

It tops our own win number, 6.3 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
7	CONCURRENTLY ◀	24%	7/2	7/2
6	PRONGHORN	17%	5/1	8/5
4	BALLERINA D'ORO	16%	5/1	4/1
2	LOW COUNTRY MAGIC	14%	6/1	9/2
3	ULTIMATE AUTHORITY	13%	13/2	6/1
5	MIDTOWN LIGHTS	8%	11/1	15/1
1	PURLOIN	8%	12/1	12/1

Race 5 · 5 1/2 furlongs · turf · Maiden special weightFlag

1HOT OFF THE BEACH

Model

Fair

Board

26%

3/1

4/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested3 of 8 want the lead

Go forward38

Pace helps14

Three of the 8 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five and a half furlongs on turf in a maiden special weight should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It tops our own win number, 7.7 points clear of the next one, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

3 of the 8 want the front over five and a half furlongs on turf, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	HOT OFF THE BEACH ◀	26%	3/1	4/1
3	SULTAN HASSAN	18%	9/2	3/1
6	TRUE LEGEND	15%	11/2	7/2
5	VIOLENT ACT	14%	13/2	5/1
2	ENGRAVED	12%	15/2	6/1
8	STORY OF RORY	9%	10/1	6/1
7	CRAZY BUSTED	5%	20/1	15/1
4	STROBE LIGHT	2%	50/1	20/1

Race 7 · 1 mile · turf · Stakes, $150,000 purseFlag

5CELTIC DAWN

Model

Fair

Board

35%

9/5

3/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested3 of 8 want the lead

Pace helps456

Three of the 8 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile on turf in a starter allowance should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It tops our own win number, 18.8 points clear of the next one, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

3 of the 8 want the front over a mile on turf, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	CELTIC DAWN ◀	35%	9/5	3/1
7	SHE'S COUNTRY	16%	5/1	2/1
3	MORNING PRAYER	14%	6/1	7/2
4	COMBAT MOVE	10%	9/1	6/1
2	GREYJOY	10%	9/1	6/1
8	SHAKE EM OFF	6%	15/1	12/1
1	INTO THE UNKNOWN	5%	20/1	20/1
6	LIFEISBUTADREAM	5%	20/1	15/1

Race 8 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Maiden claiming $50,000Flag

3PAULA'S CHOICE

Model

Fair

Board

35%

9/5

5/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Barn angle strong here

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace11 going

Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

PAULA'S CHOICE is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

It tops our own win number, 20.7 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	PAULA'S CHOICE ◀	35%	9/5	5/2
10	ROASTED REDS	14%	6/1	5/1
5	BOUNDING ALONG	12%	7/1	6/1
9	TWO CLICKS	10%	9/1	4/1
7	RAYNHAM HALL	7%	12/1	6/1
11	STELLA FORTUNA	6%	15/1	12/1
4	NOT TAPPING	5%	20/1	8/1
8	ADDAGIRL ADDIE	3%	30/1	20/1
6	THE GAEL	2%	50/1	20/1
2	SIGNAL CHAT	2%	50/1	50/1
1	IWOKEUPLIKETHIS	2%	50/1	20/1

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board

Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R	#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Edge	Why
R17 furlongs dirtClaiming $40,000Even pacepass
R1	5	ALL CLASS	33%	2/1	2/1	0	1···
R1	2	SAVE US MELANIA	32%	2/1	9/5	-2	2·B·
R1	6	MALU	17%	5/1	8/1	+6	3···
R1	4	STREET VIEW	16%	11/2	9/2	-2	4·B·
R1	1	THIRTEEN RED FLAGS	2%	50/1	20/1	-2	5·B·
R21 mile dirtOptional claiming $80,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pace1 flag
R2	7	CONCURRENTLY	24%	7/2	7/2	+6	1···
R2	6	PRONGHORN	17%	5/1	8/5	-13	5···
R2	4	BALLERINA D'ORO	16%	5/1	4/1	+1	2···
R2	2	LOW COUNTRY MAGIC	14%	6/1	9/2	0	3···
R2	3	ULTIMATE AUTHORITY	13%	13/2	6/1	+2	4···
R2	5	MIDTOWN LIGHTS	8%	11/1	15/1	+3	6···
R2	1	PURLOIN	8%	12/1	12/1	+2	7···
R37 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $75,000Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R3	7	HOT GOSSIP	20%	4/1	4/1	+4	1▲B·
R3	6	L'ECLAIR	16%	5/1	3/1	-4	3···
R3	4	CRAVINGS	16%	11/2	5/1	+2	2·B·
R3	5	PINKY BRIER	13%	13/2	6/1	+1	4▲B·
R3	1	HUCK'S AGENDA	12%	7/1	4/1	-4	7▲··
R3	2	BASEBALL LADY	12%	7/1	6/1	0	5···
R3	8	CELESTIAL BODY	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	6···
R46 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $30,000Contested pace likely (6 early-speed types)pass
R4	7	GARDINER	26%	3/1	8/5	-7	1▼B·
R4	5	MISCHIEVOUS M	18%	9/2	5/1	+4	2···
R4	3	TREATY OBLIGATION	14%	13/2	4/1	-4	3···
R4	1	TRUST ISSUES	10%	9/1	15/1	+4	4▲··
R4	2	BIG HAT WILLIE	9%	10/1	10/1	+1	5···
R4	9	PROTECTED	9%	11/1	8/1	-1	8···
R4	4	DISARMED	8%	11/1	10/1	0	6▼··
R4	6	CONNIVING	7%	12/1	15/1	+2	7·B·
R55 1/2 furlongs turfMaiden special weightContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag
R5	1	HOT OFF THE BEACH	26%	3/1	4/1	+9	1▲··
R5	3	SULTAN HASSAN	18%	9/2	3/1	-2	2▼··
R5	6	TRUE LEGEND	15%	11/2	7/2	-3	3···
R5	5	VIOLENT ACT	14%	13/2	5/1	0	····
R5	2	ENGRAVED	12%	15/2	6/1	0	····
R5	8	STORY OF RORY	9%	10/1	6/1	-2	4▼··
R5	7	CRAZY BUSTED	5%	20/1	15/1	0	··B·
R5	4	STROBE LIGHT	2%	50/1	20/1	-2	5▲B·
R67 furlongs dirtStarter allowance, $55,000 levelEven pacepass
R6	5	SOUTH BEND TOM	18%	9/2	9/2	+3	1···
R6	2	SEA VISTA	18%	9/2	7/2	-1	2···
R6	3	DISCOTHEQUE	17%	5/1	9/2	+1	3···
R6	6	BIG GAIN	16%	5/1	3/1	-5	4···
R6	4	MOMENT'S NOTICE	12%	15/2	6/1	0	6···
R6	8	SOLO JIM	11%	8/1	8/1	+2	5···
R6	7	UNCLE JIM	8%	12/1	10/1	0	7···
R71 mile turfStakes, $150,000 purseContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag
R7	5	CELTIC DAWN	35%	9/5	3/1	+15	1▲··
R7	7	SHE'S COUNTRY	16%	5/1	2/1	-10	3···
R7	3	MORNING PRAYER	14%	6/1	7/2	-3	2···
R7	4	COMBAT MOVE	10%	9/1	6/1	-1	5▲··
R7	2	GREYJOY	10%	9/1	6/1	-2	4·B·
R7	8	SHAKE EM OFF	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R7	1	INTO THE UNKNOWN	5%	20/1	20/1	+1	6···
R7	6	LIFEISBUTADREAM	5%	20/1	15/1	0	7▲··
R81 1/16 miles turfMaiden claiming $50,000Even pace1 flag
R8	3	PAULA'S CHOICE	35%	9/5	5/2	+13	1·B·
R8	10	ROASTED REDS	14%	6/1	5/1	+1	2···
R8	5	BOUNDING ALONG	12%	7/1	6/1	+1	3·B·
R8	9	TWO CLICKS	10%	9/1	4/1	-6	4·B·
R8	7	RAYNHAM HALL	7%	12/1	6/1	-4	6···
R8	11	STELLA FORTUNA	6%	15/1	12/1	0	5·B·
R8	4	NOT TAPPING	5%	20/1	8/1	-3	7···
R8	8	ADDAGIRL ADDIE	3%	30/1	20/1	-1	8·B·
R8	6	THE GAEL	2%	50/1	20/1	-1	10·B·
R8	2	SIGNAL CHAT	2%	50/1	50/1	+1	9·B·
R8	1	IWOKEUPLIKETHIS	2%	50/1	20/1	-2	11···

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 8 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet

R1Chalk5All Class33%2/12/1

How it sets up

dirtEven pace5 going

The board and our number agree in a $40,000 claimer. A short field of five.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	ALL CLASS	33%	2/1	2/1
2	SAVE US MELANIA	32%	2/1	9/5
6	MALU	17%	5/1	8/1
4	STREET VIEW	16%	11/2	9/2
1	THIRTEEN RED FLAGS	2%	50/1	20/1

R3Lean7Hot Gossip20%4/14/1

How it sets up

dirtContested3 of 7 want the lead

Pace helps157

Our top-rated horse in a $75,000 optional claimer. Three of them want the lead. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 4 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
7	HOT GOSSIP	20%	4/1	4/1
6	L'ECLAIR	16%	5/1	3/1
4	CRAVINGS	16%	11/2	5/1
5	PINKY BRIER	13%	13/2	6/1
1	HUCK'S AGENDA	12%	7/1	4/1
2	BASEBALL LADY	12%	7/1	6/1
8	CELESTIAL BODY	10%	9/1	8/1

R4Chalk7Gardiner26%3/18/5

How it sets up

dirtContested6 of 8 want the lead

Go forward47

Pace helps1

The board and our number agree in a $30,000 optional claimer. Six horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field. We make the favourite, #7 GARDINER, 26% against the board's 33%, shorter than we think it should be. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
7	GARDINER	26%	3/1	8/5
5	MISCHIEVOUS M	18%	9/2	5/1
3	TREATY OBLIGATION	14%	13/2	4/1
1	TRUST ISSUES	10%	9/1	15/1
2	BIG HAT WILLIE	9%	10/1	10/1
9	PROTECTED	9%	11/1	8/1
4	DISARMED	8%	11/1	10/1
6	CONNIVING	7%	12/1	15/1

R6Lean5South Bend Tom18%9/29/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pace7 going

Our top-rated horse in a restricted stakes. We make the top one 18% against the board's 15%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points. We make the favourite, #6 BIG GAIN, 16% against the board's 21%, shorter than we think it should be. Our own top-rated is #5 SOUTH BEND TOM. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	SOUTH BEND TOM	18%	9/2	9/2
2	SEA VISTA	18%	9/2	7/2
3	DISCOTHEQUE	17%	5/1	9/2
6	BIG GAIN	16%	5/1	3/1
4	MOMENT'S NOTICE	12%	15/2	6/1
8	SOLO JIM	11%	8/1	8/1
7	UNCLE JIM	8%	12/1	10/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code d22ad90a · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 bd84ebbadf79… · Scratch status checked at 10:33 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

Edge Card runs a proprietary pre-race probability process: market expectations combined with licensed past-performance, pace, field-composition and connections information, evaluated within each race. Exact implementation details are not published. Structured analysis, not a proven edge; tracked publicly either way. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash	`bd84ebbadf79d928380c58da02064c141be5ab5868da676e2831d0d6fc8f7801`
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