Saratoga, Thu Aug 13, 2026

9 races · published 10:51 AM ET · card locked

4 value plays today · 5 races we're passing

StatusCompleted · races run

First post1:10 PM ET

Scratch checkChecked · 10:49 AM ET

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Thu Aug 13, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day

7LIBERTY'S ADVANCE

Race 1 · 5 1/2 furlongs turf

28%model5/2fair5/1boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+15 pts over the board), the price may move either way into post; you’re paid the close. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Today at SaratogaMostly Sunny then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms, 82°F, wind 3 to 7 mph · rain 20%, no off-track flagNWS forecast

Flags 4 of 9 races

New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.

Today’s plays4 flags

RaceHorseModelBoardEdge

R17Liberty's Advance28%5/1+15 pts R41Majaz38%2/1+12 pts R61Fionn51%6/5+15 pts R76Shoot It True48%1/1+9 pts

Race 1 · 5 1/2 furlongs · turf · Maiden special weightFlag

7LIBERTY'S ADVANCE

Model

Fair

Board

28%

5/2

5/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested5 of 7 want the lead

Go forward14

Pace helps36

Five of the 7 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five and a half furlongs on turf in a maiden special weight should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It rates second on our own win number, 2.7 points behind the top, and with 5 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

5 of the 7 want the front over five and a half furlongs on turf, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	APERITIF	31%	2/1	5/2
7	LIBERTY'S ADVANCE ◀	28%	5/2	5/1
3	COMBAT MOVE	13%	13/2	3/1
5	MY LIL ARMY GIRL	10%	9/1	4/1
4	DAYLIGHT DREAMER	9%	10/1	9/2
2	LIVELY PAL	5%	20/1	12/1
1	GALWAY GURL	4%	25/1	8/1

Race 4 · 1 3/16 miles · turf · Optional claiming $55,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterFlag

1MAJAZ

Model

Fair

Board

38%

8/5

2/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace6 going

No one horse is entitled to the lead. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

MAJAZ is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

It tops our own win number, 16.0 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	MAJAZ ◀	38%	8/5	2/1
4	MIDNIGHT CONCERTO	22%	7/2	7/2
5	TULIP	14%	13/2	5/2
2	MAKE YOU MINE	14%	13/2	3/1
6	TRAIL OF GOLD	8%	12/1	8/1
3	SPECIAL WOOD	5%	20/1	15/1

Race 6 · 1 mile · turf · Optional claiming $110,000Flag

1FIONN

Model

Fair

Board

51%

1/1

6/5

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace6 going

Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

FIONN is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

It tops our own win number, 37.7 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	FIONN ◀	51%	1/1	6/5
3	TABLE FLIRT	13%	13/2	3/1
4	READY TO JAM	12%	7/1	8/1
2	SHOTGUN WEDDING	10%	9/1	7/2
5	AMBER CASCADE	8%	12/1	6/1
6	SPINNING COLORS	7%	15/1	10/1

Race 7 · 5 1/2 furlongs · turf · Optional claiming $80,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterFlag

6SHOOT IT TRUE

Model

Fair

Board

48%

1/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

The board and our fair price round to the same number (1/1), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show, it is +9.0 points of win probability, not a longer price.

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace6 going

Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

SHOOT IT TRUE is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

It tops our own win number, 24.3 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	SHOOT IT TRUE ◀	48%	1/1	1/1
3	HIGHWAY HARMONY	24%	3/1	5/2
5	OPULENT RESTRAINT	8%	11/1	12/1
4	QUIET CONFIDENCE	8%	12/1	5/1
1	ABIENTOT	6%	15/1	6/1
2	SHADES OF JADE	6%	15/1	8/1

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board

Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R	#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Edge	Why
R15 1/2 furlongs turfMaiden special weightContested pace likely (5 early-speed types)1 flag
R1	6	APERITIF	31%	2/1	5/2	+9	2▲··
R1	7	LIBERTY'S ADVANCE	28%	5/2	5/1	+15	1···
R1	3	COMBAT MOVE	13%	13/2	3/1	-7	3▲··
R1	5	MY LIL ARMY GIRL	10%	9/1	4/1	-6	4···
R1	4	DAYLIGHT DREAMER	9%	10/1	9/2	-5	5▼··
R1	2	LIVELY PAL	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	6···
R1	1	GALWAY GURL	4%	25/1	8/1	-5	7▼··
R26 furlongs dirtMaiden claiming $85,000Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R2	2	MO THE MERRIER	37%	8/5	9/5	+9	1▲··
R2	5	THE STANDARD	26%	3/1	2/1	0	2▲··
R2	6	ONEPAC	12%	7/1	4/1	-4	4▼··
R2	3	GRAND GESTURE	11%	8/1	5/1	-2	3···
R2	4	COST EFFECTIVE	9%	10/1	6/1	-2	5···
R2	1	RELATIVE RISK	4%	20/1	15/1	-1	6···
R31 mile dirtStarter allowance, $40,000 levelContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass
R3	1	LADY WISDOM	26%	3/1	7/5	-6	2···
R3	5	TIMIA	24%	3/1	5/2	+1	1▼··
R3	2	OUR PREFERRED PAL	15%	11/2	6/1	+4	3▼··
R3	4	BABCIE	11%	15/2	4/1	-4	5▼··
R3	3	ISLAND CHARM	11%	8/1	8/1	+3	4▲··
R3	7	SPIRIT OF ESTHER	6%	15/1	15/1	+2	6▼··
R3	6	ICY LEGS	6%	15/1	15/1	+1	7▲··
R41 3/16 miles turfOptional claiming $55,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pace1 flag
R4	1	MAJAZ	38%	8/5	2/1	+12	1···
R4	4	MIDNIGHT CONCERTO	22%	7/2	7/2	+5	2···
R4	5	TULIP	14%	13/2	5/2	-9	4···
R4	2	MAKE YOU MINE	14%	13/2	3/1	-6	3···
R4	6	TRAIL OF GOLD	8%	12/1	8/1	-1	5···
R4	3	SPECIAL WOOD	5%	20/1	15/1	0	6···
R56 furlongs dirtClaiming $20,000, non-winners of three lifetimeEven pacepass
R5	3	VEKOMANCER	24%	3/1	2/1	-2	1···
R5	8	MASCARA	15%	11/2	3/1	-4	2···
R5	1	VINO FRIZZANTE	12%	15/2	5/1	-1	3···
R5	4	SPUN SIZE	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	6···
R5	6	SCARLET'S DREAM	10%	10/1	10/1	+2	4···
R5	2	CALLING AN AUDIBLE	9%	10/1	10/1	+2	5···
R5	9	CLOUDY CHANCE	9%	10/1	6/1	-2	7···
R5	7	ST. BRIGID'S CROSS	6%	15/1	15/1	+1	8···
R5	5	SANTAGATA	4%	25/1	30/1	+2	9···
R61 mile turfOptional claiming $110,000Even pace1 flag
R6	1	FIONN	51%	1/1	6/5	+15	1···
R6	3	TABLE FLIRT	13%	13/2	3/1	-7	3···
R6	4	READY TO JAM	12%	7/1	8/1	+4	2···
R6	2	SHOTGUN WEDDING	10%	9/1	7/2	-8	5···
R6	5	AMBER CASCADE	8%	12/1	6/1	-4	6···
R6	6	SPINNING COLORS	7%	15/1	10/1	-1	4···
R75 1/2 furlongs turfOptional claiming $80,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pace1 flag
R7	6	SHOOT IT TRUE	48%	1/1	1/1	+9	1···
R7	3	HIGHWAY HARMONY	24%	3/1	5/2	+1	2···
R7	5	OPULENT RESTRAINT	8%	11/1	12/1	+2	3···
R7	4	QUIET CONFIDENCE	8%	12/1	5/1	-5	4···
R7	1	ABIENTOT	6%	15/1	6/1	-5	6···
R7	2	SHADES OF JADE	6%	15/1	8/1	-3	5···
R814 furlongs dirtStakes, $200,000 purseContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R8	1	PARCHMENT PARTY	30%	5/2	8/5	+1	1▲··
R8	3	STARS AND STRIPES	21%	7/2	5/2	-1	2···
R8	6	INTERCEPTOR	16%	11/2	9/2	+2	3▲··
R8	7	JOKESTAR	12%	15/2	4/1	-3	5▲··
R8	2	ANNEXPERIENCE	8%	11/1	10/1	+1	4···
R8	5	WAITLIST	4%	20/1	20/1	+1	6···
R8	8	CAROLO RAPIDO	4%	20/1	20/1	+1	8···
R8	4	PASSING GAME	4%	25/1	15/1	-1	7▼··
R96 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass
R9	2	CRITERIA	30%	5/2	5/2	+8	1▲··
R9	10	HOLY SEVEN	13%	7/1	5/1	0	2▼··
R9	9	COMPLEX CHARLIE	12%	7/1	7/2	-5	3▼··
R9	7	BAMBOOZIE	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R9	4	ROYAL ENCLOSURE	8%	11/1	8/1	0	····
R9	1	FLIGHT COMMANDER	7%	15/1	10/1	0	····
R9	3	SPHERICAL	6%	15/1	10/1	-1	4▼··
R9	5	DARK FORCE	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R9	6	IMA BIG BAD WOLF	3%	30/1	20/1	-1	6▲··
R9	8	PALPABLE	3%	30/1	20/1	-1	5···

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 9 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet

R2Lean2Mo The Merrier37%8/59/5

How it sets up

dirtContested3 of 6 want the lead

Go forward6

Pace helps25

Our top-rated horse in a $85,000 maiden claimer. Three of them want the lead. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 9 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	MO THE MERRIER	37%	8/5	9/5
5	THE STANDARD	26%	3/1	2/1
6	ONEPAC	12%	7/1	4/1
3	GRAND GESTURE	11%	8/1	5/1
4	COST EFFECTIVE	9%	10/1	6/1
1	RELATIVE RISK	4%	20/1	15/1

R3Chalk1Lady Wisdom26%3/17/5

How it sets up

dirtContested4 of 7 want the lead

Go forward2457

Pace helps36

The board and our number agree in a restricted stakes. Four horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. We make the favourite, #1 LADY WISDOM, 26% against the board's 32%, shorter than we think it should be. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	LADY WISDOM	26%	3/1	7/5
5	TIMIA	24%	3/1	5/2
2	OUR PREFERRED PAL	15%	11/2	6/1
4	BABCIE	11%	15/2	4/1
3	ISLAND CHARM	11%	8/1	8/1
7	SPIRIT OF ESTHER	6%	15/1	15/1
6	ICY LEGS	6%	15/1	15/1

R5Chalk3Vekomancer24%3/12/1

How it sets up

dirtEven pace9 going

The board and our number agree in a $20,000 claimer. We make the top one 24% against the board's 26%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	VEKOMANCER	24%	3/1	2/1
8	MASCARA	15%	11/2	3/1
1	VINO FRIZZANTE	12%	15/2	5/1
4	SPUN SIZE	10%	9/1	8/1
6	SCARLET'S DREAM	10%	10/1	10/1
2	CALLING AN AUDIBLE	9%	10/1	10/1
9	CLOUDY CHANCE	9%	10/1	6/1
7	ST. BRIGID'S CROSS	6%	15/1	15/1
5	SANTAGATA	4%	25/1	30/1

R8Chalk1Parchment Party30%5/28/5

How it sets up

dirtContested3 of 8 want the lead

Go forward4

Pace helps167

The board and our number agree in a starter allowance. Three of them want the lead.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	PARCHMENT PARTY	30%	5/2	8/5
3	STARS AND STRIPES	21%	7/2	5/2
6	INTERCEPTOR	16%	11/2	9/2
7	JOKESTAR	12%	15/2	4/1
2	ANNEXPERIENCE	8%	11/1	10/1
5	WAITLIST	4%	20/1	20/1
8	CAROLO RAPIDO	4%	20/1	20/1
4	PASSING GAME	4%	25/1	15/1

R9Lean2Criteria30%5/25/2

How it sets up

dirtContested4 of 10 want the lead

Go forward3910

Pace helps26

Our top-rated horse in a maiden special weight. Four horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 8 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	CRITERIA	30%	5/2	5/2
10	HOLY SEVEN	13%	7/1	5/1
9	COMPLEX CHARLIE	12%	7/1	7/2
7	BAMBOOZIE	11%	8/1	6/1
4	ROYAL ENCLOSURE	8%	11/1	8/1
1	FLIGHT COMMANDER	7%	15/1	10/1
3	SPHERICAL	6%	15/1	10/1
5	DARK FORCE	6%	15/1	12/1
6	IMA BIG BAD WOLF	3%	30/1	20/1
8	PALPABLE	3%	30/1	20/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 1e87694e · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 3f7a8c2026dc… · Scratch status checked at 10:49 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

Edge Card runs a proprietary pre-race probability process: market expectations combined with licensed past-performance, pace, field-composition and connections information, evaluated within each race. Exact implementation details are not published. Structured analysis, not a proven edge; tracked publicly either way. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash	`3f7a8c2026dc6e00194b98a2c528db182b4aecba3e46c2edb26cb657e7764683`
OpenTimestamps status	OpenTimestamps calendar commitment; Bitcoin confirmation pending