Saratoga, Wed Aug 12, 2026

9 races · published 11:08 AM ET · card locked

2 value plays today · 7 races we're passing

StatusCompleted · races run

First post1:10 PM ET

Scratch checkChecked · 11:08 AM ET

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Wed Aug 12, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day

8ARTISTIC SUCCESS

Race 5 · 1 1/16 miles turf

27%model5/2fair3/1boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+7 pts over the board), the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number, so size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Today at SaratogaMostly Sunny, 83°F, wind 5 mph · rain 33%, no off-track flagNWS forecast

Flags 2 of 9 races

New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.

Today’s plays2 flags

RaceHorseModelBoardEdge

R58Artistic Success27%3/1+7 pts R95Gum20%9/2+6 pts

Race 5 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Claiming $35,000, non-winners of two lifetimeFlag

8ARTISTIC SUCCESS

Model

Fair

Board

27%

5/2

3/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #2 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace8 going

No one horse is entitled to the lead. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

It rates second on our own win number, 15.1 points behind the top.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	BRILLANTE	42%	7/5	4/5
8	ARTISTIC SUCCESS ◀	27%	5/2	3/1
6	GREYJOY	10%	9/1	6/1
2	UR DESIRE	7%	12/1	8/1
3	GIVE HER ANOTHER	6%	15/1	12/1
7	OLIVIA'S GRACE	5%	20/1	15/1
1	SERENA FLY	2%	50/1	20/1
4	ROSE LISA	1%	99/1	30/1

Race 9 · 1 mile · turf · Maiden claiming $85,000Flag

5GUM

Model

Fair

Board

20%

4/1

9/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace10 going

Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

It tops our own win number, 2.0 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	GUM ◀	20%	4/1	9/2
7	BOURBON MILK PUNCH	18%	9/2	7/2
9	MISTBORN	18%	9/2	8/5
2	RESORT	14%	6/1	6/1
10	CHANNELVIEW	11%	8/1	10/1
3	SERENIQUE	6%	15/1	12/1
6	BATTLE WINNER	5%	20/1	12/1
8	GRACE OF MONACO	4%	25/1	20/1
4	RIYAH AL NIL	2%	50/1	50/1
1	GIANT SENSE	1%	50/1	30/1

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board

Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R	#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Edge	Why
R119 furlongs turfMGWlshNov75kEven pacepass
R1	4	CYBER NINJA	23%	7/2	5/2	+1	····
R1	3	FEELING FESTIVE	19%	4/1	3/1	0	····
R1	7	PHILIP MY DEAR	15%	6/1	4/1	-1	1···
R1	6	FAMOUS FIGURE	13%	7/1	5/1	0	····
R1	2	KING AL	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R1	1	LORD FLINTSHIRE	9%	11/1	8/1	0	2···
R1	5	LYNCHES KNOCK	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R1	8	ALPAMAYO	5%	20/1	15/1	0	····
R25 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden claiming $55,000Even pacepass
R2	3	DREAM ABOUT	18%	9/2	7/2	0	····
R2	2	JUNEAU	15%	11/2	5/1	+2	1···
R2	8	BEECHWOOD'S BEST	14%	6/1	9/2	0	····
R2	4	BUSINESS MATH	14%	6/1	3/1	-5	2···
R2	1	MADISON MOON	9%	11/1	8/1	0	····
R2	6	MY BESTIE	8%	11/1	8/1	0	····
R2	7	QUALITY SPRING	8%	11/1	15/1	+4	3···
R2	9	BROWN SUGAR BETTY	8%	11/1	8/1	0	····
R2	5	BOXAJOE N TOOTZROL	5%	20/1	15/1	0	····
R35 1/2 furlongs turfMaiden claiming $55,000Even pacepass
R3	7	LOTS OF KISSES	35%	9/5	7/5	+3	1···
R3	4	R P BYRNE	19%	4/1	3/1	0	2···
R3	2	KEY ACTRESS	14%	6/1	4/1	-2	3···
R3	9	SOLAIA	10%	9/1	8/1	+2	4···
R3	3	ILENAS KAZ WAY	9%	10/1	8/1	0	5···
R3	8	SWEET MACKENZIE	6%	15/1	10/1	-1	6···
R3	10	BENGALESE	3%	30/1	30/1	+1	7···
R3	6	MIEL ET CITRON	1%	50/1	50/1	0	8···
R3	1	FREE SPIN KIM	1%	99/1	30/1	-2	10···
R3	5	KATERINA RISTOVA	1%	99/1	50/1	-1	9···
R46 1/2 furlongs dirtClaiming $45,000Even pacepass
R4	5	INEXORABLE	19%	9/2	5/2	-4	3···
R4	4	CLASSIC TIME	17%	5/1	3/1	-3	4···
R4	1	MISCHIEVOUS M	16%	11/2	4/1	0	1···
R4	3	RUN CLASSIC	14%	6/1	6/1	+3	2···
R4	7	PARADISE VALLEY	11%	8/1	12/1	+5	5···
R4	2	POWER ATTACK	10%	9/1	6/1	-1	6···
R4	6	FIDDLING FELIX	7%	12/1	8/1	-2	8···
R4	8	TRUST ISSUES	6%	15/1	15/1	+1	7···
R51 1/16 miles turfClaiming $35,000, non-winners of two lifetimeEven pace1 flag
R5	5	BRILLANTE	42%	7/5	4/5	-1	1···
R5	8	ARTISTIC SUCCESS	27%	5/2	3/1	+7	2···
R5	6	GREYJOY	10%	9/1	6/1	-1	3···
R5	2	UR DESIRE	7%	12/1	8/1	-2	5···
R5	3	GIVE HER ANOTHER	6%	15/1	12/1	0	4···
R5	7	OLIVIA'S GRACE	5%	20/1	15/1	0	6···
R5	1	SERENA FLY	2%	50/1	20/1	-2	7···
R5	4	ROSE LISA	1%	99/1	30/1	-1	8···
R65 1/2 furlongs turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R6	10	YOLO TRAIN	23%	7/2	5/2	+1	····
R6	3	OMI MARIA	15%	11/2	4/1	0	····
R6	8	SWEET GRACE	14%	6/1	6/1	+3	1···
R6	2	MI GORDITA	13%	7/1	5/1	0	····
R6	4	BANKTHEMONEYHONEY	9%	10/1	8/1	0	····
R6	6	TAPPIN MAGIC	9%	11/1	8/1	0	····
R6	1	INSTANT STARDOM	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R6	7	BOURBON MOJO	5%	20/1	15/1	0	····
R6	9	DECIMAL POINT	4%	25/1	20/1	0	····
R6	5	SEA ISLE CITY	3%	30/1	12/1	-3	2···
R76 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R7	3	UNDER THE MOON	16%	11/2	4/1	0	····
R7	9	DAVIDSON	13%	7/1	5/1	0	····
R7	5	SHE'S FAST MONEY	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R7	6	LAUREN'S TIME	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R7	11	CYBER BABY	9%	10/1	8/1	0	····
R7	10	SWEET LISA	8%	11/1	12/1	+2	1···
R7	4	IN THE QUEUE	7%	12/1	8/1	-1	2···
R7	2	BABY BETH	7%	12/1	10/1	0	····
R7	8	SARATOGA LAKE	7%	15/1	10/1	0	····
R7	7	LADY AZUL	4%	25/1	15/1	-1	3···
R7	1	EMPIRICAL MARCH	4%	25/1	20/1	0	····
R7	12	COURSIERE	3%	30/1	20/1	0	····
R81 1/8 miles dirtOptional claiming $55,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pacepass
R8	2	HIDDEN ROSE	19%	4/1	3/1	-1	1···
R8	1	ANSWERED PRAYERS	17%	5/1	5/2	-5	4···
R8	4	BRUNCH WITH AMY	16%	5/1	9/2	+2	2···
R8	7	SERAPHIA	15%	11/2	7/2	-2	5···
R8	5	SAILAWAY	14%	6/1	5/1	+1	3···
R8	3	HIGHER FORCE	11%	8/1	10/1	+3	6···
R8	6	PENS STREET	7%	12/1	12/1	+1	7···
R91 mile turfMaiden claiming $85,000Even pace1 flag
R9	5	GUM	20%	4/1	9/2	+6	1···
R9	7	BOURBON MILK PUNCH	18%	9/2	7/2	+1	2···
R9	9	MISTBORN	18%	9/2	8/5	-12	5···
R9	2	RESORT	14%	6/1	6/1	+3	3···
R9	10	CHANNELVIEW	11%	8/1	10/1	+4	4···
R9	3	SERENIQUE	6%	15/1	12/1	0	····
R9	6	BATTLE WINNER	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	6···
R9	8	GRACE OF MONACO	4%	25/1	20/1	0	7···
R9	4	RIYAH AL NIL	2%	50/1	50/1	0	8···
R9	1	GIANT SENSE	1%	50/1	30/1	-1	9···

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 9 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet

R1Chalk4Cyber Ninja23%7/25/2

How it sets up

turfEven pace8 going

The board and our number agree in a starter allowance. We make the top one 23% against the board's 22%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	CYBER NINJA	23%	7/2	5/2
3	FEELING FESTIVE	19%	4/1	3/1
7	PHILIP MY DEAR	15%	6/1	4/1
6	FAMOUS FIGURE	13%	7/1	5/1
2	KING AL	11%	8/1	6/1
1	LORD FLINTSHIRE	9%	11/1	8/1
5	LYNCHES KNOCK	6%	15/1	12/1
8	ALPAMAYO	5%	20/1	15/1

R2Scramble3Dream About18%9/27/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pace9 going

An open heat. Nothing separates the top two by more than 2.6 points. We make the top one 18% against the board's 17%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	DREAM ABOUT	18%	9/2	7/2
2	JUNEAU	15%	11/2	5/1
8	BEECHWOOD'S BEST	14%	6/1	9/2
4	BUSINESS MATH	14%	6/1	3/1
1	MADISON MOON	9%	11/1	8/1
6	MY BESTIE	8%	11/1	8/1
7	QUALITY SPRING	8%	11/1	15/1
9	BROWN SUGAR BETTY	8%	11/1	8/1
5	BOXAJOE N TOOTZROL	5%	20/1	15/1

R3Lean7Lots Of Kisses35%9/57/5

How it sets up

turfEven pace10 going

Our top-rated horse in a $55,000 maiden claimer. We make the top one 35% against the board's 32%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
7	LOTS OF KISSES	35%	9/5	7/5
4	R P BYRNE	19%	4/1	3/1
2	KEY ACTRESS	14%	6/1	4/1
9	SOLAIA	10%	9/1	8/1
3	ILENAS KAZ WAY	9%	10/1	8/1
8	SWEET MACKENZIE	6%	15/1	10/1
10	BENGALESE	3%	30/1	30/1
6	MIEL ET CITRON	1%	50/1	50/1
1	FREE SPIN KIM	1%	99/1	30/1
5	KATERINA RISTOVA	1%	99/1	50/1

R4Scramble5Inexorable19%9/25/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pace8 going

An open heat. Nothing separates the top two by more than 1.9 points. We make the top one 19% against the board's 22%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	INEXORABLE	19%	9/2	5/2
4	CLASSIC TIME	17%	5/1	3/1
1	MISCHIEVOUS M	16%	11/2	4/1
3	RUN CLASSIC	14%	6/1	6/1
7	PARADISE VALLEY	11%	8/1	12/1
2	POWER ATTACK	10%	9/1	6/1
6	FIDDLING FELIX	7%	12/1	8/1
8	TRUST ISSUES	6%	15/1	15/1

R6Chalk10Yolo Train23%7/25/2

How it sets up

turfEven pace10 going

The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. A full field of ten.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
10	YOLO TRAIN	23%	7/2	5/2
3	OMI MARIA	15%	11/2	4/1
8	SWEET GRACE	14%	6/1	6/1
2	MI GORDITA	13%	7/1	5/1
4	BANKTHEMONEYHONEY	9%	10/1	8/1
6	TAPPIN MAGIC	9%	11/1	8/1
1	INSTANT STARDOM	6%	15/1	12/1
7	BOURBON MOJO	5%	20/1	15/1
9	DECIMAL POINT	4%	25/1	20/1
5	SEA ISLE CITY	3%	30/1	12/1

R7Scramble3Under The Moon16%11/24/1

How it sets up

dirtEven pace12 going

A full field of twelve. Nothing separates the top two by more than 2.9 points. We make the top one 16% against the board's 15%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	UNDER THE MOON	16%	11/2	4/1
9	DAVIDSON	13%	7/1	5/1
5	SHE'S FAST MONEY	11%	8/1	6/1
6	LAUREN'S TIME	11%	8/1	6/1
11	CYBER BABY	9%	10/1	8/1
10	SWEET LISA	8%	11/1	12/1
4	IN THE QUEUE	7%	12/1	8/1
2	BABY BETH	7%	12/1	10/1
8	SARATOGA LAKE	7%	15/1	10/1
7	LADY AZUL	4%	25/1	15/1
1	EMPIRICAL MARCH	4%	25/1	20/1
12	COURSIERE	3%	30/1	20/1

R8Scramble2Hidden Rose19%4/13/1

How it sets up

dirtEven pace7 going

An open heat. Nothing separates the top two by more than 1.8 points. We make the top one 19% against the board's 20%. We make the favourite, #1 ANSWERED PRAYERS, 17% against the board's 22%, shorter than we think it should be. Our own top-rated is #2 HIDDEN ROSE. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	HIDDEN ROSE	19%	4/1	3/1
1	ANSWERED PRAYERS	17%	5/1	5/2
4	BRUNCH WITH AMY	16%	5/1	9/2
7	SERAPHIA	15%	11/2	7/2
5	SAILAWAY	14%	6/1	5/1
3	HIGHER FORCE	11%	8/1	10/1
6	PENS STREET	7%	12/1	12/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 041077ef · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 5ca2650e76e9… · Scratch status checked at 11:08 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

Edge Card runs a proprietary pre-race probability process: market expectations combined with licensed past-performance, pace, field-composition and connections information, evaluated within each race. Exact implementation details are not published. Structured analysis, not a proven edge; tracked publicly either way. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash	`5ca2650e76e9cabfc6aecf444f7110eca45a4c112e50932ae848544e2dc4a8d3`
OpenTimestamps status	OpenTimestamps calendar commitment; Bitcoin confirmation pending