Del Mar, Thu Jul 30, 2026

8 races · published 10:45 AM ET · card locked

4 value plays today · 5 races we're passing

StatusCompleted · races run

First post2:00 PM PT

Scratch checkChecked · 10:25 AM ET

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Thu Jul 30, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day

6ASTRONOMICALLY

Race 8 · 1 mile turf

22%model7/2fair8/1boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+13 pts over the board), the price should hold, so this is the fullest version of the edge. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Today at Del MarMostly Sunny, 77°F, wind 0 to 10 mph · rain 0%, no off-track flagNWS forecast

Flags 4 of 8 races

New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.

Today’s plays4 flags

RaceHorseModelBoardEdge

R22Smile Baby Smile15%8/1+6 pts R67Mio Bambino19%5/1+6 pts R810Justivar26%7/2+8 pts R86Astronomically22%8/1+13 pts

Race 2 · 6 1/2 furlongs · dirt · Claiming $25,000Flag

2SMILE BABY SMILE

Model

Fair

Board

15%

11/2

8/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price should hold A long board price the late money tends to leave alone, so you should still get a strong number at post, the fullest version of the edge.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested5 of 9 want the lead

Go forward158

Pace helps247

Five of the 9 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over six and a half furlongs on dirt in a $25,000 claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It rates second on our own win number, 1.1 points behind the top, and with 5 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

5 of the 9 want the front over six and a half furlongs on dirt, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	STAY IN LINE	16%	5/1	5/2
2	SMILE BABY SMILE ◀	15%	11/2	8/1
9	SHOP TILL YOU DROP	15%	11/2	4/1
8	TEQUILAANDTHERAPY	14%	13/2	6/1
6	CLUBHOUSE BRIDE	11%	15/2	6/1
7	RUNNING SUPER	10%	9/1	8/1
3	KNIGHTWITHLOUIS	9%	11/1	10/1
4	BAYTOWN BUTTERFLY	7%	12/1	8/1
5	SEXY BLUE	3%	30/1	20/1

Race 6 · 1 mile · dirt · Claiming $16,000, non-winners of three lifetimeFlag

7MIO BAMBINO

Model

Fair

Board

19%

4/1

5/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested4 of 9 want the lead

Go forward16

Pace helps247

Four of the 9 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile on dirt in a $16,000 claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It tops our own win number, 4.3 points clear of the next one, and with 4 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

4 of the 9 want the front over a mile on dirt, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
7	MIO BAMBINO ◀	19%	4/1	5/1
5	RHYTHEM ON STAGE	15%	6/1	7/2
6	SOI NGERN	14%	6/1	4/1
1	BOWTIE BOYS	14%	6/1	3/1
4	FIX IT QUICK	10%	9/1	8/1
9	SPIRITUAL ADVISOR	9%	10/1	12/1
8	WHAT A GIFT	7%	12/1	12/1
2	TEE N OFF	6%	15/1	12/1
3	TIGGRRR WHITWORTH	5%	20/1	12/1

Race 8 · 1 mile · turf · Maiden claiming $50,000Flag

10JUSTIVAR

Model

Fair

Board

26%

3/1

7/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace11 going

No one horse is entitled to the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

It tops our own win number, 4.2 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
10	JUSTIVAR ◀	26%	3/1	7/2
6	ASTRONOMICALLY	22%	7/2	8/1
9	VELVET REIGN	12%	15/2	4/1
11	ZURAYA	8%	12/1	5/1
7	MEDINA DEL CAMPO	6%	15/1	12/1
5	STORM LADY	6%	15/1	10/1
4	WINIKA	6%	15/1	8/1
1	SUNNY CREED	5%	20/1	12/1
8	ALYN'S GIRL	4%	20/1	15/1
3	CAVES	4%	25/1	12/1
2	AUTHENTIC GRACE	3%	30/1	15/1

Race 8 · 1 mile · turf · Maiden claiming $50,000Flag

6ASTRONOMICALLY

Model

Fair

Board

22%

7/2

8/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price should hold A long board price the late money tends to leave alone, so you should still get a strong number at post, the fullest version of the edge.

Ranks #2 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace11 going

Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It rates second on our own win number, 4.2 points behind the top.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
10	JUSTIVAR	26%	3/1	7/2
6	ASTRONOMICALLY ◀	22%	7/2	8/1
9	VELVET REIGN	12%	15/2	4/1
11	ZURAYA	8%	12/1	5/1
7	MEDINA DEL CAMPO	6%	15/1	12/1
5	STORM LADY	6%	15/1	10/1
4	WINIKA	6%	15/1	8/1
1	SUNNY CREED	5%	20/1	12/1
8	ALYN'S GIRL	4%	20/1	15/1
3	CAVES	4%	25/1	12/1
2	AUTHENTIC GRACE	3%	30/1	15/1

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board

Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R	#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Edge	Why
R26 1/2 furlongs dirtClaiming $25,000Contested pace likely (5 early-speed types)1 flag
R2	1	STAY IN LINE	16%	5/1	5/2	-7	4▼··
R2	2	SMILE BABY SMILE	15%	11/2	8/1	+6	1▲··
R2	9	SHOP TILL YOU DROP	15%	11/2	4/1	-1	3···
R2	8	TEQUILAANDTHERAPY	14%	13/2	6/1	+2	2▼··
R2	6	CLUBHOUSE BRIDE	11%	15/2	6/1	0	5···
R2	7	RUNNING SUPER	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	6▲··
R2	3	KNIGHTWITHLOUIS	9%	11/1	10/1	+1	6···
R2	4	BAYTOWN BUTTERFLY	7%	12/1	8/1	-1	8▲··
R2	5	SEXY BLUE	3%	30/1	20/1	-1	9▼··
R31 mile dirtMaiden claiming $20,000Even pacepass
R3	6	SUGAR REIGN	21%	7/2	3/1	+1	1···
R3	4	SPRINGLINE	20%	4/1	5/2	-2	2···
R3	5	LADY RUTH	18%	9/2	7/2	0	3···
R3	1	ISNTSHELOVERLY	13%	13/2	5/1	0	4···
R3	3	MELBA MONTGOMERY	12%	15/2	6/1	+1	5···
R3	8	SMOKEM HOT GIRL	6%	15/1	12/1	0	7···
R3	2	DARLIN' DUCHESS	6%	15/1	15/1	+1	6···
R3	7	HARD HEARTED	4%	25/1	20/1	0	8···
R46 furlongs dirtClaiming $6,250Contested pace likely (5 early-speed types)pass
R4	8	ZOMBO BOMBO	15%	11/2	3/1	-5	2▼··
R4	9	CHASIN MUNNY	14%	6/1	6/1	+3	1···
R4	3	COME OUT FIGHTING	14%	6/1	5/2	-8	8▲··
R4	1	WINDRIBBON	11%	15/2	5/1	-2	6▲··
R4	2	KAHUNA MAGIC	11%	8/1	12/1	+5	3▲··
R4	7	MAGIC CONNECTION	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	4···
R4	4	SWAGGISH	9%	11/1	12/1	+3	5···
R4	5	PERFECTO AMOR	7%	15/1	15/1	+2	7···
R4	6	THE KEY IS UNITY	5%	20/1	20/1	+2	9···
R4	10	MANDELA EFFECT	4%	25/1	20/1	0	10···
R51 mile turfOptional claiming $50,000Even pacepass
R5	9	BIRKIN GIRL	17%	5/1	4/1	+1	1···
R5	2	CAT THE CONFIDANTE	13%	7/1	7/2	-5	6···
R5	4	REHEARSAL	11%	8/1	6/1	0	3···
R5	10	SPECIALTY	10%	9/1	12/1	+4	2···
R5	1	KINTRIGUE	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	4···
R5	3	ANGELICA BAY	9%	10/1	8/1	0	5···
R5	8	LIL'S COFFEE	7%	12/1	6/1	-4	10···
R5	11	LANILLA	7%	15/1	12/1	+1	7···
R5	5	ORANGE THUNDER	7%	15/1	12/1	+1	8···
R5	6	SHINING RIVER	6%	15/1	15/1	+1	9···
R5	7	INTUITIVEBYNATURE	4%	25/1	20/1	0	11···
R61 mile dirtClaiming $16,000, non-winners of three lifetimeContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)1 flag
R6	7	MIO BAMBINO	19%	4/1	5/1	+6	1▲··
R6	5	RHYTHEM ON STAGE	15%	6/1	7/2	-3	3···
R6	6	SOI NGERN	14%	6/1	4/1	-2	2▼··
R6	1	BOWTIE BOYS	14%	6/1	3/1	-6	4▼··
R6	4	FIX IT QUICK	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	6▲··
R6	9	SPIRITUAL ADVISOR	9%	10/1	12/1	+3	5···
R6	8	WHAT A GIFT	7%	12/1	12/1	+1	7···
R6	2	TEE N OFF	6%	15/1	12/1	0	8▲··
R6	3	TIGGRRR WHITWORTH	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	9···
R76 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $20,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pacepass
R7	10	SYNTAX	13%	13/2	7/2	-5	4···
R7	3	MISS KONA	12%	15/2	4/1	-4	6···
R7	4	LA SILENCIOSA	10%	9/1	6/1	-1	5···
R7	5	BESSIE COLEMAN	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	3···
R7	1	REDHEADED REBA	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	1···
R7	7	THE LOAN EXCHANGE	9%	10/1	12/1	+3	2···
R7	8	MISS PRACTICAL	8%	11/1	8/1	-1	7···
R7	9	LADY GREGORY	7%	12/1	12/1	+1	8···
R7	11	LADY GAMBITA	6%	15/1	12/1	0	12···
R7	6	TIMEKEEPER'S CHARM	6%	15/1	15/1	+1	10···
R7	2	BABY NEEDS SHOES	5%	20/1	20/1	+2	9···
R7	12	HARNEY LANE	4%	20/1	30/1	+2	11···
R81 mile turfMaiden claiming $50,000Even pace2 flags
R8	10	JUSTIVAR	26%	3/1	7/2	+8	1···
R8	6	ASTRONOMICALLY	22%	7/2	8/1	+13	2···
R8	9	VELVET REIGN	12%	15/2	4/1	-4	3···
R8	11	ZURAYA	8%	12/1	5/1	-6	6···
R8	7	MEDINA DEL CAMPO	6%	15/1	12/1	0	4···
R8	5	STORM LADY	6%	15/1	10/1	-2	5···
R8	4	WINIKA	6%	15/1	8/1	-3	9···
R8	1	SUNNY CREED	5%	20/1	12/1	-1	7···
R8	8	ALYN'S GIRL	4%	20/1	15/1	-1	8···
R8	3	CAVES	4%	25/1	12/1	-2	11···
R8	2	AUTHENTIC GRACE	3%	30/1	15/1	-2	10···

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 8 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet

R1·PASS - CONFIRMED SCRATCH CANNOT YET BE APPLIED BEFORE SCORING. Official Del Mar changes list #3 Divine Kismet scratched from race 1. The card builder has no pre-scoring scratch removal, so this race's field-relative values were computed over a field that still contains the scratched runner. No pick, fair odds or threshold is shown.

R3Chalk6Sugar Reign21%7/23/1

How it sets up

dirtEven pace8 going

The board and our number agree in a $20,000 maiden claimer. We make the top one 21% against the board's 20%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	SUGAR REIGN	21%	7/2	3/1
4	SPRINGLINE	20%	4/1	5/2
5	LADY RUTH	18%	9/2	7/2
1	ISNTSHELOVERLY	13%	13/2	5/1
3	MELBA MONTGOMERY	12%	15/2	6/1
8	SMOKEM HOT GIRL	6%	15/1	12/1
2	DARLIN' DUCHESS	6%	15/1	15/1
7	HARD HEARTED	4%	25/1	20/1

R4Scramble8Zombo Bombo15%11/23/1

How it sets up

dirtContested5 of 10 want the lead

Go forward8

Pace helps123

A full field of ten. Nothing separates the top two by more than 0.7 points. Five horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. We make the favourite, #3 COME OUT FIGHTING, 14% against the board's 22%, shorter than we think it should be. Our own top-rated is #8 ZOMBO BOMBO. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
8	ZOMBO BOMBO	15%	11/2	3/1
9	CHASIN MUNNY	14%	6/1	6/1
3	COME OUT FIGHTING	14%	6/1	5/2
1	WINDRIBBON	11%	15/2	5/1
2	KAHUNA MAGIC	11%	8/1	12/1
7	MAGIC CONNECTION	10%	9/1	8/1
4	SWAGGISH	9%	11/1	12/1
5	PERFECTO AMOR	7%	15/1	15/1
6	THE KEY IS UNITY	5%	20/1	20/1
10	MANDELA EFFECT	4%	25/1	20/1

R5Chalk9Birkin Girl17%5/14/1

How it sets up

turfEven pace11 going

The board and our number agree in a $50,000 optional claimer. A full field of eleven.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
9	BIRKIN GIRL	17%	5/1	4/1
2	CAT THE CONFIDANTE	13%	7/1	7/2
4	REHEARSAL	11%	8/1	6/1
10	SPECIALTY	10%	9/1	12/1
1	KINTRIGUE	10%	9/1	8/1
3	ANGELICA BAY	9%	10/1	8/1
8	LIL'S COFFEE	7%	12/1	6/1
11	LANILLA	7%	15/1	12/1
5	ORANGE THUNDER	7%	15/1	12/1
6	SHINING RIVER	6%	15/1	15/1
7	INTUITIVEBYNATURE	4%	25/1	20/1

R7Scramble10Syntax13%13/27/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pace12 going

A full field of twelve. Nothing separates the top two by more than 1.2 points. We make the top one 13% against the board's 17%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
10	SYNTAX	13%	13/2	7/2
3	MISS KONA	12%	15/2	4/1
4	LA SILENCIOSA	10%	9/1	6/1
5	BESSIE COLEMAN	10%	9/1	8/1
1	REDHEADED REBA	10%	9/1	8/1
7	THE LOAN EXCHANGE	9%	10/1	12/1
8	MISS PRACTICAL	8%	11/1	8/1
9	LADY GREGORY	7%	12/1	12/1
11	LADY GAMBITA	6%	15/1	12/1
6	TIMEKEEPER'S CHARM	6%	15/1	15/1
2	BABY NEEDS SHOES	5%	20/1	20/1
12	HARNEY LANE	4%	20/1	30/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code c93eb1cc · takeout (DMR) win 15.43% / exacta 22.68% · card SHA-256 81b42c1e625f… · Scratch status checked at 10:25 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

This card was produced under the methodology version identified at publication. Detailed implementation parameters are proprietary and are no longer displayed. The original selections, probabilities, prices, timestamps, grading and integrity evidence are unchanged, and the locked card file below is the original. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash	`81b42c1e625ff520710d55bedf86c51834ba447f189e0487dda1b3053c47d0c6`
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