Saratoga, Fri Jul 24, 2026

10 races · published 2:18 AM ET · card locked

4 value plays today · 6 races we're passing

StatusCompleted · races run

First post1:10 PM ET

Scratch checkAs of 10:00 AM ET

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Fri Jul 24, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day

1SPIRIT OF NEW YORK

Race 9 · 1 1/16 miles turf

26%model3/1fair6/1boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+15 pts over the board), the price may move either way into post; you’re paid the close. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Today at SaratogaMostly Clear, 49°F, wind 0 to 3 mph · rain 0%, no off-track flagNWS forecast

Flags 4 of 10 races

New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.

Today’s plays4 flags

RaceHorseModelBoardEdge

R35Krissys Star13%12/1+7 pts R78Mommy's Turn28%3/1+8 pts R91Spirit Of New York26%6/1+15 pts R109War And Majesty22%6/1+10 pts

Race 3 · 1 mile · dirt · Optional claiming $55,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterFlag

5KRISSYS STAR

Model

Fair

Board

13%

13/2

12/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price should hold A long board price the late money tends to leave alone, so you should still get a strong number at post, the fullest version of the edge.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested3 of 9 want the lead

Pace helps168

Three of the 9 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile on dirt in a $55,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

A price play. KRISSYS STAR is not likely on its own, but the board has it longer than we do, and on a horse this price that is where a payout actually lives.

It rates second on our own win number, 10.3 points behind the top, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

3 of the 9 want the front over a mile on dirt, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	MY GUN'S LOADED	23%	7/2	4/5
5	KRISSYS STAR ◀	13%	13/2	12/1
3	NYCON	12%	7/1	5/1
8	BOW DRAW	10%	9/1	8/1
1	BRUNCH WITH AMY	10%	9/1	8/1
2	BERNIEANDTHEROSE	10%	9/1	12/1
7	LIKA ROLLING STONE	8%	11/1	15/1
9	SOUNDBITE	7%	12/1	10/1
4	FAST AND FRISKY	6%	15/1	30/1

Race 7 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Optional claiming $45,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterFlag

8MOMMY'S TURN

Model

Fair

Board

28%

5/2

3/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Lone speedone gets loose on the lead, 8 going

Alone on the lead7

One of the 8 looks alone on the lead, clear of the field on the early figures over a mile and a sixteenth on turf, with nothing else in here entitled to go with it.

The model’s read ▾

MOMMY'S TURN is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

It tops our own win number, 7.7 points clear of the next one, in a race where one of them looks like getting loose on the lead.

In a field of 8 it profiles as the lone speed over a mile and a sixteenth on turf, likely alone on the lead.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
8	MOMMY'S TURN ◀	28%	5/2	3/1
4	NONNA LYNNE	20%	4/1	4/1
5	STARSHIP PEGASUS	18%	9/2	7/2
1	SARATOGA SNOW	10%	9/1	6/1
2	CAN'T FOOL ME	8%	11/1	8/1
7	GOLDEN ROCKET	7%	12/1	6/1
3	SWEET ANNIVERSARY	5%	20/1	6/1
6	HELLO BEAUTY	3%	30/1	15/1

Race 9 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Stakes, $200,000 purseFlag

1SPIRIT OF NEW YORK

Model

Fair

Board

26%

3/1

6/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested3 of 7 want the lead

Pace helps234

Three of the 7 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile and a sixteenth on turf in a starter allowance should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It tops our own win number, 4.1 points clear of the next one, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

3 of the 7 want the front over a mile and a sixteenth on turf, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	SPIRIT OF NEW YORK ◀	26%	3/1	6/1
6	A LITTLE AT FIRST	22%	7/2	2/1
2	VOODOO DOLL	16%	11/2	7/2
7	CAROLINE ST. BEAT	13%	7/1	3/1
3	NEWLYN	9%	10/1	10/1
5	CHUMMERS	8%	11/1	6/1
4	MANOR PARK	5%	15/1	10/1

Race 10 · 1 1/2 miles · turf · Maiden special weightFlag

9WAR AND MAJESTY

Model

Fair

Board

22%

7/2

6/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend; projects as the lone early speed.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Lone speedone gets loose on the lead, 9 going

Alone on the lead9

One of the 9 looks alone on the lead, clear of the field on the early figures over a mile and a half on turf, with nothing else in here entitled to go with it.

The model’s read ▾

It tops our own win number, 5.3 points clear of the next one, in a race where one of them looks like getting loose on the lead.

In a field of 9 it profiles as the lone speed over a mile and a half on turf, likely uncontested on the front end, and we bumped it for that (×1.15).

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
9	WAR AND MAJESTY ◀	22%	7/2	6/1
4	GOLD SOVEREIGN	16%	5/1	4/1
1	LAHAINALUNA	13%	13/2	8/1
5	INSTANTLY	12%	7/1	7/2
2	LIMITED EDITION	11%	8/1	6/1
7	ORGONITE	9%	10/1	9/2
8	DAUNTING	7%	15/1	8/1
3	MORTAL LOCK	6%	15/1	12/1
6	DONNADOYAWANNA	4%	25/1	12/1

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board

Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R	#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Edge	Why
R17 furlongs dirtMaiden claiming $20,000Even pacepass
R1	7	TWO BY TWO BY TWO	32%	2/1	9/5	+4	1···
R1	8	OATH	16%	11/2	3/1	-4	2···
R1	2	BABCIE	14%	6/1	7/2	-3	3···
R1	5	CAMILLE'S LEGACY	11%	8/1	6/1	0	4···
R1	3	HANNA'S HIDEAWAY	9%	10/1	8/1	0	5···
R1	6	BIG JACKIE	7%	12/1	12/1	+1	6···
R1	1	ALL FUN N GAMES	6%	15/1	12/1	0	7···
R1	4	MS NIKKI D	5%	20/1	20/1	+2	8···
R21 1/16 miles turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R2	7	JUST PEACHY	21%	7/2	5/2	-1	2···
R2	5	MARGIE'S GIRL	20%	4/1	7/2	+3	1···
R2	3	CONFLICT	16%	11/2	4/1	0	····
R2	2	MANDY STEPH	15%	6/1	9/2	0	····
R2	8	CELEBRATE	9%	11/1	8/1	0	····
R2	4	HARMONY MILL	8%	11/1	8/1	-1	····
R2	6	LOOP D LOOP	7%	12/1	10/1	0	····
R2	1	MISS MA'AM	5%	20/1	12/1	-2	3···
R31 mile dirtOptional claiming $55,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag
R3	6	MY GUN'S LOADED	23%	7/2	4/5	-20	7▲··
R3	5	KRISSYS STAR	13%	13/2	12/1	+7	1···
R3	3	NYCON	12%	7/1	5/1	-1	3···
R3	8	BOW DRAW	10%	9/1	8/1	+2	5▲··
R3	1	BRUNCH WITH AMY	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	6▲··
R3	2	BERNIEANDTHEROSE	10%	9/1	12/1	+4	2···
R3	7	LIKA ROLLING STONE	8%	11/1	15/1	+3	4···
R3	9	SOUNDBITE	7%	12/1	10/1	0	8···
R3	4	FAST AND FRISKY	6%	15/1	30/1	+3	9···
R41 mile dirtClaiming $20,000Even pacepass
R4	1	GLEN AIRY	25%	3/1	2/1	-1	1···
R4	7	RUNGIUS	17%	5/1	7/2	0	3···
R4	6	HOURS IN A DAY	15%	11/2	6/1	+4	2···
R4	8	NEON BORDEAUX	13%	7/1	9/2	-1	5···
R4	4	AWESOME EMPIRE	12%	7/1	5/1	-1	4···
R4	2	AUTHENTIC GALLOP	8%	12/1	12/1	+2	6···
R4	3	GET A JOB	6%	15/1	8/1	-2	7···
R4	5	ROCK THE WEEKEND	4%	25/1	20/1	0	8···
R56 1/2 furlongs dirtClaiming $20,000, non-winners of two lifetimeEven pacepass
R5	10	SWAGING	17%	9/2	7/2	0	1···
R5	11	TEDDER	15%	6/1	9/2	+1	2···
R5	1	SALMING	13%	7/1	5/1	0	3···
R5	5	SHELLAC	10%	9/1	8/1	+2	4···
R5	7	SPORTS HERO	10%	9/1	6/1	-1	5···
R5	4	DIAMOND CHILD	8%	12/1	6/1	-3	9···
R5	3	MAJESTIC ARC	6%	15/1	15/1	+2	6···
R5	8	RUMBLYOUNGMANRUMBL	6%	15/1	8/1	-3	10···
R5	6	RESIDE	5%	20/1	20/1	+2	7···
R5	9	INTO INSPIRATION	5%	20/1	20/1	+1	8···
R5	2	DETAIL ORIENTED	4%	25/1	20/1	0	11···
R65 1/2 furlongs turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R6	4	QUARTZ MOUNTAIN	18%	9/2	7/2	+1	····
R6	8	SOUND OF MADNESS	13%	13/2	5/1	0	····
R6	9	GIRLS WEAR PEARLS	12%	7/1	9/2	-2	1···
R6	6	BREAKER	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R6	7	RUNAWAY BRIDE	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R6	2	DAZZLING	10%	9/1	6/1	-1	3···
R6	5	RED COATS COMING	10%	9/1	8/1	+1	2···
R6	3	HUNTER CREEK	5%	20/1	15/1	0	····
R6	1	MITOLEON DYNAMITE	5%	20/1	20/1	+1	4···
R6	10	SPACE FOR GRACE	5%	20/1	15/1	0	····
R71 1/16 miles turfOptional claiming $45,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterLone speed1 flag
R7	8	MOMMY'S TURN	28%	5/2	3/1	+8	1···
R7	4	NONNA LYNNE	20%	4/1	4/1	+5	2···
R7	5	STARSHIP PEGASUS	18%	9/2	7/2	0	3···
R7	1	SARATOGA SNOW	10%	9/1	6/1	-1	4···
R7	2	CAN'T FOOL ME	8%	11/1	8/1	0	5···
R7	7	GOLDEN ROCKET	7%	12/1	6/1	-4	6▲··
R7	3	SWEET ANNIVERSARY	5%	20/1	6/1	-6	8···
R7	6	HELLO BEAUTY	3%	30/1	15/1	-2	7···
R81 1/8 miles dirtGrade 2 stakesLone speedpass
R8	4	SCOTTISH LASSIE	28%	5/2	9/5	0	2▲··
R8	3	FULLY SUBSCRIBED	25%	3/1	2/1	-1	1···
R8	5	BLESS THE BROKEN	17%	5/1	7/2	0	3···
R8	6	EUNOMIA	11%	8/1	8/1	+2	4···
R8	1	SNOWYTE	7%	12/1	6/1	-4	7···
R8	7	VALTELLINA	6%	15/1	20/1	+2	5···
R8	2	AEOLIAN	5%	15/1	15/1	+1	6···
R91 1/16 miles turfStakes, $200,000 purseContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag
R9	1	SPIRIT OF NEW YORK	26%	3/1	6/1	+15	1···
R9	6	A LITTLE AT FIRST	22%	7/2	2/1	-4	2···
R9	2	VOODOO DOLL	16%	11/2	7/2	-2	3▲··
R9	7	CAROLINE ST. BEAT	13%	7/1	3/1	-7	4···
R9	3	NEWLYN	9%	10/1	10/1	+2	5▲··
R9	5	CHUMMERS	8%	11/1	6/1	-3	6···
R9	4	MANOR PARK	5%	15/1	10/1	-2	7▲··
R101 1/2 miles turfMaiden special weightLone speed1 flag
R10	9	WAR AND MAJESTY	22%	7/2	6/1	+10	1▲··
R10	4	GOLD SOVEREIGN	16%	5/1	4/1	0	2···
R10	1	LAHAINALUNA	13%	13/2	8/1	+4	3···
R10	5	INSTANTLY	12%	7/1	7/2	-5	5···
R10	2	LIMITED EDITION	11%	8/1	6/1	0	4···
R10	7	ORGONITE	9%	10/1	9/2	-5	6···
R10	8	DAUNTING	7%	15/1	8/1	-2	8···
R10	3	MORTAL LOCK	6%	15/1	12/1	0	7···
R10	6	DONNADOYAWANNA	4%	25/1	12/1	-2	9···

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 10 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet

R1Lean7Two By Two By Two32%2/19/5

How it sets up

dirtEven pace8 going

Our top-rated horse in a $20,000 maiden claimer. We make the top one 32% against the board's 28%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 4 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
7	TWO BY TWO BY TWO	32%	2/1	9/5
8	OATH	16%	11/2	3/1
2	BABCIE	14%	6/1	7/2
5	CAMILLE'S LEGACY	11%	8/1	6/1
3	HANNA'S HIDEAWAY	9%	10/1	8/1
6	BIG JACKIE	7%	12/1	12/1
1	ALL FUN N GAMES	6%	15/1	12/1
4	MS NIKKI D	5%	20/1	20/1

R2Chalk7Just Peachy21%7/25/2

How it sets up

turfEven pace8 going

The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 21% against the board's 22%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
7	JUST PEACHY	21%	7/2	5/2
5	MARGIE'S GIRL	20%	4/1	7/2
3	CONFLICT	16%	11/2	4/1
2	MANDY STEPH	15%	6/1	9/2
8	CELEBRATE	9%	11/1	8/1
4	HARMONY MILL	8%	11/1	8/1
6	LOOP D LOOP	7%	12/1	10/1
1	MISS MA'AM	5%	20/1	12/1

R4Chalk1Glen Airy25%3/12/1

How it sets up

dirtEven pace8 going

The board and our number agree in a $20,000 claimer. We make the top one 25% against the board's 26%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	GLEN AIRY	25%	3/1	2/1
7	RUNGIUS	17%	5/1	7/2
6	HOURS IN A DAY	15%	11/2	6/1
8	NEON BORDEAUX	13%	7/1	9/2
4	AWESOME EMPIRE	12%	7/1	5/1
2	AUTHENTIC GALLOP	8%	12/1	12/1
3	GET A JOB	6%	15/1	8/1
5	ROCK THE WEEKEND	4%	25/1	20/1

R5Scramble10Swaging17%9/27/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pace11 going

A full field of eleven. Nothing separates the top two by more than 2.7 points. We make the top one 17% against the board's 17%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
10	SWAGING	17%	9/2	7/2
11	TEDDER	15%	6/1	9/2
1	SALMING	13%	7/1	5/1
5	SHELLAC	10%	9/1	8/1
7	SPORTS HERO	10%	9/1	6/1
4	DIAMOND CHILD	8%	12/1	6/1
3	MAJESTIC ARC	6%	15/1	15/1
8	RUMBLYOUNGMANRUMBL	6%	15/1	8/1
6	RESIDE	5%	20/1	20/1
9	INTO INSPIRATION	5%	20/1	20/1
2	DETAIL ORIENTED	4%	25/1	20/1

R6Chalk4Quartz Mountain18%9/27/2

How it sets up

turfEven pace10 going

The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. A full field of ten.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	QUARTZ MOUNTAIN	18%	9/2	7/2
8	SOUND OF MADNESS	13%	13/2	5/1
9	GIRLS WEAR PEARLS	12%	7/1	9/2
6	BREAKER	11%	8/1	6/1
7	RUNAWAY BRIDE	11%	8/1	6/1
2	DAZZLING	10%	9/1	6/1
5	RED COATS COMING	10%	9/1	8/1
3	HUNTER CREEK	5%	20/1	15/1
1	MITOLEON DYNAMITE	5%	20/1	20/1
10	SPACE FOR GRACE	5%	20/1	15/1

R8Chalk4Scottish Lassie28%5/29/5

How it sets up

dirtLone speedone gets loose on the lead, 7 going

Alone on the lead4

The board and our number agree in a Grade 2. One horse looks alone on the lead, which our pace adjustment credits.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	SCOTTISH LASSIE	28%	5/2	9/5
3	FULLY SUBSCRIBED	25%	3/1	2/1
5	BLESS THE BROKEN	17%	5/1	7/2
6	EUNOMIA	11%	8/1	8/1
1	SNOWYTE	7%	12/1	6/1
7	VALTELLINA	6%	15/1	20/1
2	AEOLIAN	5%	15/1	15/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 1dcfb1b1 · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 74b3e1d76292… · Scratches as of 10:00 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

This card was produced under the methodology version identified at publication. Detailed implementation parameters are proprietary and are no longer displayed. The original selections, probabilities, prices, timestamps, grading and integrity evidence are unchanged, and the locked card file below is the original. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash	`8b399bb0a6fe598b6ad13db9ffe76f7708839dfb20e4c6bc333f42e9b1ceff50`
Original recorded lock hash	`74b3e1d7629297c428c30ce3fbca07906c0e21c76916462d1d6f7b92276e821b`
OpenTimestamps status	Bitcoin confirmed · block 959385

This card was generated on Windows. Its original lock hash was calculated from CRLF-formatted bytes before Git stored the same JSON with LF line endings. The selections and JSON values are unchanged. Use the downloadable artifact hash above to verify the public file. Full correction record · chc-2026-07-24-sar-card-01.